Archives for July 2011

Heath Bell Talks Trade Possibilities

By Tim Dierkes | July 11, 2011 at 2:08pm CDT

Padres closer Heath Bell appears to be keeping tabs on his own market, telling Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times he views the Angels, Yankees, Cardinals, Rangers, and Phillies as potential suitors (Twitter link).

Bell discussed the trade possibility at length with MLB.com's Matthew Leach and other reporters today at the All-Star game media session, saying he's willing to set up for the rest of the year if a team acquires him for that role. Of course, he doesn't really have any say in the matter; if a team wants him to play shortstop he'll have to do that to collect his paycheck. Bell does not seem to have a league preference. As you might expect, Bell will want a closing job when he signs a contract as a free agent.

An NL executive spoke to Tom Krasovic about Bell's trade value, wondering if Padres setup man Mike Adams is valued more. As far as fantasy baseball trade value, Dan Mennella at CloserNews wonders if it's time to try flipping Bell.

If The Rays Become Buyers

By Tim Dierkes | July 11, 2011 at 12:26pm CDT

The Rays are five games out in the wild card and six out in the AL East. With less than three weeks remaining until the trade deadline, they're currently sitting on the uncomfortable borderline of contention.

The Rays rank eighth among the 14 AL teams with 4.22 runs scored per game. They're eleventh in OBP and seventh in SLG. Evan Longoria missed most of April with an oblique strain, so just having him for the entire second half would provide a boost. On the flip side, Matt Joyce may be unable to reproduce his strong first half. How might the Rays go about improving the offense?

Catcher: John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach have struggled offensively. Some names on which the Rays could kick the tires: Ramon Hernandez, Chris Iannetta, Ryan Doumit (when healthy), Ronny Paulino, and Geovany Soto.
Shortstop: Out of Reid Brignac, Elliot Johnson, and Sean Rodriguez, Rodriguez has the most useful bat. The Rays might not be able to beat his .223/.308/.408 line on the trade market, with Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, and Hanley Ramirez unlikely to be dealt. Rafael Furcal could be worth a look, if the Dodgers pick up most of the tab.
Left field: As I mentioned today, possible reasonably-priced trade candidates include Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, David DeJesus, and Luke Scott (when healthy). Desmond Jennings and Brandon Guyer could be considerations from the Rays' Triple-A team.

By ERA, the Rays' starting pitching ranks fourth in the AL at 3.57. Wade Davis is battling a minor injury, but the team has good depth. Alex Cobb is the sixth man, and the Rays have one of the game's top pitching prospects in Matt Moore at Double-A.

The Rays' bullpen could use reinforcements; it'd be interesting to see Moore enter the picture as a September call-up. The Blue Jays, Orioles, Padres, Athletics, and Marlins might be selling some decent relievers this month.

Who might the Rays use for trade bait? Moore and Jennings are surely off-limits, and I'd be surprised to see them trade any of their top 15 prospects. Among those with big league track records, Upton could be dealt if the Rays are comfortable replacing him with Jennings and finding additional outfield help, a tough move for a contender to make. Upton will still have trade value after the season, as he'll probably earn less than $8MM next year. Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann could have value to teams seeking affordable back-end starters. We've seen names like Johnny Damon, Kyle Farnsworth, and Juan Cruz surface as trade candidates, which I'll find more likely if the Rays are further from contending in a few weeks.

Introducing CloserNews.com

By Tim Dierkes | July 11, 2011 at 11:12am CDT

CloserNews began as a Twitter account designed to help you quickly identify possible closer changes for fantasy baseball leagues. To date, about 7,000 people are using @closernews to dominate the saves category in their league.

Given the Twitter success, we're excited to take the next step with CloserNews.com. Dan Mennella has the reins on this new website, providing witty commentary on all things saves-related as well as a constantly-updated depth chart. If your fantasy league counts saves, bookmark CloserNews.com today!

Trade Candidate: Carlos Pena

By Tim Dierkes | July 11, 2011 at 9:46am CDT

First baseman Carlos Pena hit just .196/.325/.407 in 2010, and the Scott Boras client signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Cubs last December in hopes of rebuilding value. Maybe it's due to switching leagues, but Pena's power has rebounded and now he might be the only 30 home run bat on the trade market.

Pena, 33, is hitting .225/.339/.461 with 19 home runs in 340 plate appearances for the Cubs this year. After a rough April he's produced a more robust .244/.354/.543 line. If you're a contender looking for big-time power, Pena and Mark Reynolds are probably the best bets. Both come with big strikeout totals, however. Carlos Beltran, Ryan Ludwick, and Josh Willingham are other power hitters who might be available this month.

With a $10MM salary, Pena earns more than Reynolds, Ludwick, or Willingham. But the Cubs were short on payroll space when they signed Pena, and authored a fairly unique one-year deal that deferred half of his salary until January of 2012. That means an acquiring team would owe Pena around $1.6MM for the remainder of the season if they acquire him at the deadline, but then would have to tack another $5MM for him onto their 2012 payroll. For a club lacking flexibility this might be a benefit; others could be reluctant to pay Pena after he's already signed with another team.

In terms of draft pick compensation, Pena projects as a Type B free agent. This might be a minimal factor for the Cubs or any team, as Pena is not a lock to receive an arbitration offer. And he may not be keen on a handshake agreement to turn down arbitration; he was not one of the Rays who agreed to such an arrangement last year.

Of the 16 current contenders, few are in need of first base help, which should reduce the demand for Pena. The eight AL contenders generally don't need designated hitters, so that route probably would not help Cubs GM Jim Hendry.

The Pirates and Diamondbacks strike me as two teams that would benefit from renting the Pena. The D'Backs would might prefer to turn to Brandon Allen or Paul Goldschmidt at first, leaving the Pirates as the lone suitor if they wish to improve upon Lyle Overbay. The Bucs make for an interesting match, as typically it's been the Cubs swiping useful players from them. I also like the fit because the Pirates could avoid giving up any useful young players for Pena, instead offering to relieve the Cubs of most of the slugger's remaining $6.6MM.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Contenders In Need Of A Left Field Upgrade

By Tim Dierkes | July 11, 2011 at 8:17am CDT

As many as seven contenders could seek a left field upgrade at the trade deadline:

Rays: The Rays are five games out in the wild card, so acquiring talent for the short-term remains possible. They've been using Sam Fuld and Justin Ruggiano lately.
Tigers: The team has employed a bunch of different corner outfielders, but primary options Brennan Boesch and Magglio Ordonez might be sufficient.
White Sox: The Sox have stuck with Juan Pierre, who was at least useful in May and is having a solid July. Internally, they could give more playing time to Brent Lillibridge or promote Dayan Viciedo.
Phillies: Raul Ibanez has had a rough year, but has shown power this month and in May. He's earning $11.5MM, which limits the Phillies' flexibility.
Braves: The Braves have been using Nate McLouth in left and Jordan Schafer in center lately with Martin Prado on the DL. Prado will fill in for Chipper Jones at third upon his return.
Reds: The Reds have tried Chris Heisey, Jonny Gomes, and Fred Lewis. Overall none of them have been awful but no one has run away with the job.
Giants: Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, and perhaps Pat Burrell are in the mix. Brandon Belt could enter the picture as well, so the Giants may already have enough to choose from.

None of these clubs are a slam dunk to acquire a left fielder, but the Braves, Phillies, and Reds seem more likely than the others. Potential trade targets could include Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Luke Scott (if healthy), David DeJesus, Marcus Thames, Laynce Nix, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Juan Rivera, with Soriano and Lee long shots to be dealt.

Quick Hits: Bedard, Padres, Harper

By Dan Mennella | July 10, 2011 at 9:53pm CDT

As Sunday winds down, here are a few loose items of note, including one on Nationals prized prospect Bryce Harper, who was on display in today's Futures Game.

Mariners lefty Erik Bedard won't return to the mound any sooner than Seattle's July 22-24 series in Boston, meaning his trade value could be hampered by the fact that he'll only make, at most, two starts prior to July 31, writes Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. With a lengthy injury history, teams may perceive Bedard as damaged goods, according to Baker, although a post-deadline trade is always possible if one doesn't come to pass before it.
The Padres have several players whom they are highly unlikely to trade, although no one has been deemed entirely untouchable, a team source told Dan Hayes of the North County Times. Hayes speculates those guys are probably Anthony Rizzo, Mat Latos and Cameron Maybin (Twitter links).
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo reiterated to Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com that Harper will not be called up to the Majors this season (Twitter link). This looks like a developmental decision more so than a financial one — Harper is just 18 and was recently promoted to Double-A.
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus polls scouts and execs for a compare/contrast piece on Harper and recent Angels callup Mike Trout at ESPN.com (Insider subscription needed). The two are generally considered the best prospects in baseball.

Knobler On Marlins, Trade Market, Royals, M’s

By Dan Mennella | July 10, 2011 at 9:09pm CDT

Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com has some interesting tidbits of note in his latest blog post. Here's the latest …

The Marlins could be an intriguing seller this month, with closer Leo Nunez, starter Ricky Nolasco, reliever Randy Choate and infielders Omar Infante and Greg Dobbs potentially being made available. However, Florida does not yet consider itself a seller and won't commence an all-out firesale, what with a new ballpark opening in 2012.
The slow-developing trade market can be attributed to the league's great parity this season, but the generally healthy financial situations of most teams is playing a role, too. Few teams need to dump big contracts.
The Royals, for example, will be willing to listen on veteran outfielders Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur, but Kansas City is under no pressure to trade either one.
The Mariners, like the Fish, are still deciding whether they are ready to sell. Third-place Seattle is 7 1/2 games behind the division-leading Rangers.

AL East Notes: Hardy, A-Rod, Millwood

By Dan Mennella | July 10, 2011 at 8:17pm CDT

Here are a few items of note coming out of the American League East. The Red Sox own a one-game lead over the Yankees in that tightly contested division as we hit the Midsummer Classic …

Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy is hopeful that a contract extension will be agreed upon during the All-Star break, writes Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Said Hardy: “I hope it gets done during the break. I don’t know if it will. Right now, the ball is kind of in their court. That’s where it’s at.”
Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez will undergo right knee surgery and miss four-six weeks, according to Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter). For now, it appears the Yanks will go with Eduardo Nunez in A-Rod's stead, writes Chad Jennings of LoHud.com. As Tim Dierkes noted a couple weeks back, the trade market for third basemen is pretty bleak. The best sensible trade candidate is probably Aramis Ramirez, but he, along with his agent, has been consistent in maintaining that he won't waive his no-trade clause.
Red Sox pitcher Kevin Millwood was not called up from Triple-A Pawtucket recently despite Boston having an opening in its rotation, likely because it's easier to return Kyle Weiland to the minors than Millwood, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Red Sox minor league director Mike Hazen said he expects Millwood to get his shot in Boston sometime later this season. Millwood chose not to opt out of his deal with Boston in June.

Mets Notes: K-Rod, Alderson, Isringhausen

By Dan Mennella | July 10, 2011 at 7:18pm CDT

Here are some Mets notes as they take on the Giants in MLB's final game before the All-Star break …

GM Sandy Alderson suggests that he'll have to revisit discussions with Francisco Rodriguez about the closer waiving his partial (10-team) no-trade clause now that he has reportedly changed representation from Paul Kinzer of Wasserman Media Group to Scott Boras, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
Within that same piece, Alderson said there is a chance Rodriguez could be with the Mets in 2012, and that his $17.5MM option, should it vest, would not be "crippling" to the team. Alderson also mentioned that the trade market for big-name players such as K-Rod and Carlos Beltran is just beginning to warm up.
Right-handed reliever Jason Isringhausen, whose name has cropped up in trade rumors recently, apparently pleaded with Alderson not to deal him, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Alderson said he appreciated Izzy's preference to remain in New York and will "weigh it accordingly."

MLBTR Originals: 7/3/11 – 7/9/11

By Dan Mennella | July 10, 2011 at 6:02pm CDT

Here's a look back at the original content we published this week at MLBTR …

We ask our faithful readers in a poll: Would you trade a top-50 prospect for Francisco Liriano?
Here's an update on starters who were converted from relieving, by Ben Nicholson-Smith.
Ben Nicholson-Smith compares Jose Reyes to Carl Crawford. The Mets shortstop, a free agent-to-be, is thought to be seeking a contract on par with the seven-year, $142MM deal the outfielder signed with the Red Sox last offseason.
Only five of the offseason's Rule 5 Picks are on active rosters, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith.
Ben Nicholson-Smith checks in on this season's new managers.
Jeff Keppinger could be a trade candidate, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith.
It's never too soon to have an idea of how the upcoming free agent market is shaping up. Here's the latest Elias rankings update.
In a fun piece, Ben Nicholson-Smith looks back at the Pirates' last playoff run — in 1992.
Here's the transcript to this week's MLBTR chat with Ben Nicholson-Smith.
Mike Axisa updates us on players with vesting options for 2012.
Ben Nicholson-Smith takes stock of Yankees ace CC Sabathia, who can opt out of his contract at season's end.
Diamondbacks righty Ian Kennedy is an extension candidate, as Mike Axisa writes.
Mike Trout's callup prompts Ben Nicholson-Smith to break down the stud prospect's service time.
Mike Axisa rounds up this week's best from the baseball blogosphere. Among the hot topics: Koji Uehara, Angel Pagan and the Red Sox.
With the starters for the All-Star game in place, Mike Axisa looks at how each player was acquired by his team.
Mike Cameron has been much more than merely a guy who was once trade for Ken Griffey Jr., writes Howard Megdal.

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