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Archives for August 2011

Limited Free Agent Market For Bats

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Teams looking to add offense this offseason will face limited options.   A look at the ten available middle-of-the-order type bats:

  • Lance Berkman, 1B/OF: By most measures, Berkman has been one of the ten best offensive players in baseball this year at age 35.  He's played in 87% of the Cardinals' games and has been consistently productive.  He's got a list of three or four teams, headed by the Cards, and would consider retirement if he's "not thrilled with the opportunities."  Though a multiyear deal would likely be available, Berkman is fine with another one-year contract.  I have to imagine he'll get $12MM or more.
  • David Ortiz, DH: Ortiz, who turns 36 in November, has been nearly as good as Berkman, and he's handled lefties well.  Reportedly the Red Sox have yet to discuss a new deal with him.  It's not clear how adamant each side will be about their stance on a multiyear contract.  But the general expectation is that Ortiz returns to Boston.
  • Prince Fielder, 1B: Most expect Fielder to look for Mark Teixeira money or beyond, though yesterday I was able to come up with reasons each of the 30 teams might balk at signing him.  He'll land somewhere, but Scott Boras may need a team to bid against itself to reach Teixeira heights.
  • Albert Pujols, 1B: Pujols now leads the National League with 31 home runs, so his off year is relative.  His walk rate is down significantly though, which could give some teams pause before making one of the ten largest commitments in baseball history, if not one of the three biggest.  The Cardinals have first crack at signing him, and there's a good chance they get something done.
  • Carlos Beltran, RF: Beltran has been healthy and effective this year, outside of a DL stint for a strained hand shortly after his trade to the Giants.  A strong finish could result in a three-year deal, though Beltran does turn 35 in April.  He figures to get more than $10MM per year.
  • Michael Cuddyer, RF/1B: Cuddyer has alternated good and mediocre seasons, a trend his agent will have to downplay since this is one of the good years.  Cuddyer, 33 in March, should get a three-year deal with a salary similar to this year's $10.5MM.
  • Aramis Ramirez, 3B: Ramirez should benefit from being the only viable starting option at third base on the market.  He was headed toward a possible extension with the Cubs, but with Jim Hendry being fired he's going to take a step back and see what's out there.  His $16MM option is mutual in nature.  The 33-year-old should be able to secure a deal similar to my Cuddyer estimate, maybe better.
  • Josh Willingham, LF: Willingham, 32, started out slow for the Athletics but has a .277/.374/.606 line with 12 home runs in 163 plate appearances since July 1st.  Injuries have made him something of a 120 game guy, so a two-year deal for around $16MM seems feasible.  Willingham projects as a Type A free agent, and seems like someone who might accept arbitration if the A's offer.
  • Jason Kubel, RF/DH: At 29, Kubel has age on his side compared to most free agents.  He missed almost two months with a foot injury this year but previously had been durable.  He could be a popular free agent, with four years possible, but his stock will be hurt if he climbs to Type A status and turns down an arbitration offer from the Twins, thereby costing his new team a draft pick.
  • Carlos Pena, 1B: Pena, 33, has been aided slightly by his first crack at the National League.  He's a useful hitter, but a two-year deal at $10MM plus is a tough sell even for Scott Boras for a perennial .200 hitter.

There are other free agents – Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are difference-makers and Casey Kotchman is having a nice year – but the middle-of-the-order bat market boils down to the ten I named above.  Berkman, Ortiz, Fielder, and Pujols all have limited markets due to preference, price tag, or in Ortiz's case, the fact that he can't play the field.  It's a good time to be Beltran, Cuddyer, Ramirez, Willingham, Kubel, Pena, or Kotchman.  Surprises are possible, but the trade market offers little beyond perhaps Carlos Quentin.

Top Starters Eschew Free Agency

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Boras Corporation client Carlos Gonzalez bucked the agency's trend in January, signing a seven-year, $80MM deal instead of going to free agency as soon as possible.  Publicly, Scott Boras said, "I was very much on board with this decision," though the agent made sure to show CarGo what he was missing.  Since the deal was a record contract for a two-plus player, Boras at least had that feather in his cap.

Angels righty Jered Weaver is not a two-plus player; he has five-plus years of service time and had to get past only the 2012 season before a likely $100MM+ free agent deal.  Instead he signed for five years and $85MM.  One way to look at that is since Weaver could have gotten $13MM in arbitration for '12, he gave up four free agent years for $18MM apiece, without negotiating on the open market.  That is decidedly not the Boras Way.

Talking to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Boras explained, "He knows his value. He had close to 30 illustrations given to him to understand his value.  He knows not becoming a free agent would cost him millions and millions of dollars.  But the necessity to stay home was compelling."  Nightengale estimates a potential $60MM loss for Weaver.  For a 30-year-old ace, $23MM per year over six free agent seasons would have been possible, and $24-25MM over seven may have been within reach depending on various factors.  

Boras acknowledged that with so many top starting pitchers locked up, the free agent demand will be greater and teams will be aggressive.  For the upcoming offseason, that means huge deals for C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson; I think Wilson can reach $100MM.  Guys like Edwin Jackson and Hisashi Iwakuma may be lifted up as well.

Following the 2012 season, Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Shaun Marcum, Colby Lewis, and Anibal Sanchez project to be among the top starters available.  But how many of them will be locked up in the next 15 months?  Hamels appears open to a new extension, telling Nightengale, "Teams are being a lot smarter now,  When they have somebody they want to keep, they make sure to get it done. They don't want to let it get to an iffy situation.  The Phillies ought to know me pretty well by now, too, so we'll see what happens."

GM Candidate: Mike Chernoff

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MLBTR's list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re bringing you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with Indians assistant GM Mike Chernoff, who ranked seventh on our list. 

Mike Chernoff has had at least one game of catch every month with his dad since he was six years old.  Chernoff's bond with his father was strong enough to break a childhood allegiance to the Yankees, as Mike switched allegiances when his dad accepted a Mets-related job at WFAN.  He went on to attend Princeton, majoring in economics and playing ball there as well.  Chernoff went into college expecting to eventually land a job in finance or teaching, but a Mets internship during that time changed his mind.  After college former Mets GM Jim Duquette helped Chernoff score an internship with the Indians.

Chernoff moved up the ranks in the Indians' front office, gaining a dual education managing pro scouting and analytics.  He became director of baseball operations in 2007 and then assistant GM last year.  As an AGM, Chernoff continues to have a hand in all aspects of baseball operations, but with more authority.  I spoke with him Monday afternoon.

On his mentors in the Indians' front office:

From very early on in my time here I was put in contact with our pro scouting department, which evolved into managing that department, which was one of the best things for my development. I basically talked every day with Steve Lubratich, who has been influential in mentoring me in that side of the game.  

From the time I first got here, Chris [Antonetti] has been unbelievable in the opportunities, feedback, and development he's given me.  I've learned a lot from watching Mark [Shapiro] interacting with him but also just watching him and how he leads people.  I've been lucky to be around some quality people in this front office – Mike Hazen, Steve Lubratich, Chuck Tanner, Neal Huntington, DeJon Watson – they've made a huge impact.  

The trades of which he's most proud:

It's been really fulfilling to see guys like Carlos Santana and Justin Masterson develop into the players they've become.  Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo – guys that were in what seemed like smaller trades at the time that have turned into real impact players in our organization.

Thoughts on Moneyball:

I think the mindset of Moneyball is a really important one in any business.  You have to always be looking for that next competitive advantage or inefficiency.  I think that mentality has been really important to how we operate here.  In other ways I think it's almost created this conflict between scouts and the SABR world.  There's no reason not to combine the two. It's a funny conflict that's out there that there's really no need for.  I think it's pitted in the media in some ways and from that book as much more confrontational than it really is.

Chris Carpenter’s 2012 Option

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You can’t obtain elite free agent pitching for $15MM. Recent history suggests you can sign a middle-of-the-rotation starter – think Carl Pavano, Jake Westbrook, Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro – or a middle reliever – think Jesse Crain, Scott Downs, Joaquin Benoit or Brandon Lyon.

Chris Carpenter

The Cardinals face a major decision this offseason, when they have to choose between their $15MM option for Chris Carpenter and a $1MM buyout. It won’t be the most important decision they make this winter (the Albert Pujols contract talks deserve that honor) or even the most important decision they make with respect to their rotation (the Cards have to decide on two options for Adam Wainwright), but it will still shape the 2012 team. 

Carpenter turns 37 in April, so the former Cy Young winner is no longer in his prime. His ground ball rate dipped below 50% for the first time since 2002 this year and his 3.53 ERA is not that far off of the league average (3.85), even after an excellent Monday night outing.

But Carpenter's average fastball velocity has trended upward this year, rising from 91.4 mph to 92.5 mph, and his strikeout (7.2 K/9) and walk (2.2 BB/9) rates have improved as well. Defense independent pitching stats like xFIP (3.32) and SIERA (3.45) suggest Carpenter is far from finished (those figures don't include tonight's strong start).

He’s comfortably within Type A range according to our current projections, so the Cardinals could obtain two top picks if they decline his option and offer arbitration only to see him decline and sign a Major League deal elsewhere. Draft pick compensation figures to be a consideration for St. Louis, but it won't necessarily be the driving factor in the Cardinals' decision, especially since other teams might balk at the idea of giving up a first round pick for a 36-year-old with a history of arm trouble. 

The Cardinals’ 2012 rotation will presumably feature Wainwright and Jaime Garcia along with Westbrook, Kyle Lohse and one other starter. Edwin Jackson is a free agent, Wainwright will be returning from Tommy John surgery, Kyle McClellan has pitched better out of the bullpen and top prospects Carlos Martinez and the currently suspended Shelby Miller may not be ready for the show. In other words, the Cards could use rotation depth for 2012. 

Retaining Carpenter’s services for an extra $14MM (they’re paying $1MM no matter what) would be a luxury given the presence of McClellan, Martinez and Miller. But the Cardinals extended their payroll over $100MM this season and they appear poised to contend again in 2012. Carpenter may well be a luxury on whom GM John Mozeliak is prepared spend.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Davis, Marlins, Draft

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The Rangers beat the Orioles 30-3 on this date four years ago. In one of the most bizarre statistical quirks in recent memory, Rangers reliever Wes Littleton actually picked up a save in the game. Here are today's links, starting with an update on Texas and Baltimore… 

  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels reached out to Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail when he heard about Chris Davis' strained shoulder, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. The Orioles, who obtained Davis from Texas in a trade late last month, haven't had serious talks about reworking the deal, according to Sullivan. Daniels says the sides could revisit the trade at some point, though.
  • Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel says it's doubtful that the Marlins would allow president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest to interview for the Cubs' GM opening (Twitter link). 
  • The Nationals, D'Backs, Red Sox, Pirates and Rays had the best drafts this year, Jim Callis writes at Baseball America.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Hamels, Pelfrey, Braves

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Jimmy Rollins announced on Twitter that he has a mild grade 2 groin strain and will be on the disabled list until September. Here's the latest on the 81-44 Phillies and the rest of their division…

  • Ryan Zimmerman repeated to MLB.com's Bill Ladson that he'd like to spend his entire career in Washington. The third baseman is set to hit free agency after the 2013 season.
  • Scouts tell Bob Nightengale of USA Today that the Nationals will be powerful in a couple of years and would compete in the NL West right now (Twitter link).
  • The Phillies and Cole Hamels want to work out a long-term deal this offseason, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Gelb shows that Jered Weaver is about as statistically similar to Hamels as possible and suggests that the Phillies and Hamels could agree to a contract that mimics Weaver's recent five-year, $85MM extension. Hamels should earn more than Weaver, given his higher 2011 salary and proximity to free agency. 
  • Mets manager Terry Collins asked starter Mike Pelfrey if he'd be up for becoming the team's closer in 2012 and Pelfrey said he "absolutely" would, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. However, it's unlikely that Pelfrey will become the Mets' closer, since GM Sandy Alderson is opposed to the idea, Martino writes. Check out CloserNews.com for more on each team’s bullpen. 
  • Braves GM Frank Wren told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he has focused on adding speed in recent years, bringing in players such as Jose Constanza and Michael Bourn.
  • Braves reliever Eric O'Flaherty switched agents and is now a client of Dan Lozano's Icon Sports Group, according to Yahoo's Tim Brown (on Twitter). Steve Canter formerly represented the left-hander, who will be arbitration eligible for the second time after the season. Keep track of each player's representation with MLBTR's Agency Database.

AL Central Notes: Young, Francoeur, Thome, Indians

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Fresh off a weekend sweep of the Indians, the Tigers send Justin Verlander to the mound against the streaking Rays tonight. Here are links from the AL Central as Verlander looks to build on the Tigers' division lead and boost his Cy Young candidacy… 

  • Twins manager Ron Gardenhire admitted that Minnesota was likely going to non-tender outfielder Delmon Young after the season, according to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com (on Twitter). Instead, the Twins traded him to the Tigers.
  • In a detailed piece, Rany Jazayerli explains that he doesn't like the Jeff Francoeur extension for the Royals, even though there's a good chance it'll work out and it probably won't hurt the Royals terribly. 
  • Twins slugger Jim Thome has wanted to return to the Indians ever since he left Cleveland in 2002, according to Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com (on Twitter). Thome hit waivers earlier today. 
  • MLB executives tell ESPN.com's Buster Olney that if the Twins gave a valued player like Thome away for nothing, it would draw major scrutiny (Twitter links). For example, there would be loud protests if the Twins released Thome so that he could sign with the Phillies or another team of his choice. 
  • Indians GM Chris Antonetti and manager Manny Acta both acknowledged to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that their high profile summer acquisition, Ubaldo Jimenez, needs to make mechanical adjustments and modify his pitch sequencing (Twitter link).

GM Candidate: Tony LaCava

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MLBTR's list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re bringing you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with Blue Jays executive Tony LaCava. 

If Tony LaCava becomes a general manager, he probably won’t have a particularly hard time assembling a front office. The Blue Jays’ vice president of baseball operations and assistant General Manager has also worked for the Angels, Braves, Expos and Indians in his two-plus decades in MLB front offices and is known by his peers as someone who’s personable and well-connected.

LaCava has interviewed for GM jobs in Pittsburgh and Seattle in the past and some say it’s a matter of when, not if he becomes a GM. He oversees player development and Latin American operations for the Blue Jays, who have one of the top-ranked farm systems in the game. That kind of experience could tempt owners who are interested in replicating Toronto’s aggressive model of talent acquisition.

LaCava started his MLB career as a scout for the Angels in 1989, eventually becoming a cross-checker for them before moving on to Atlanta, Montreal and Cleveland. He remains an active scout to this day – part of his job with the Blue Jays involves evaluating possible trade candidates and reporting back to Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos.

While working with the Expos, LaCava became acquainted with advanced metrics through contact with Baseball Prospectus writers. As a result, he doesn’t shy away from including advanced stats like xFIP and BABIP in his analysis of a player.

A couple of years ago, it appeared that the Nationals might make LaCava their GM, but it turned out to be a false alarm. The next time you hear similar rumors, they could very well come true.

AL West Notes: Weaver, Mariners, Athletics

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The Angels extended Jered Weaver yesterday and it didn’t take long for some initial reactions to surface. Here are more reactions to the Weaver deal, plus other notes from the Angels’ division…

  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports that executives around MLB were stunned that Weaver accepted the Angels' five-year, $85MM extension offer. They expected the Scott Boras client to hold out for more or test his value on the open market.
  • Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles examines the Weaver deal and what it means for the Angels and their ace before concluding that "Weaver and the Angels needed each other." 
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs shows that Weaver pitches in one of the best environments possible for his skills. Though Weaver probably left money on the table, Cameron says the deal is a good one for Weaver and the Angels.
  • Writing at U.S.S. Mariner, Cameron suggests the Mariners might want to spend their money on a third baseman this winter, even though they already have the disappointing Chone Figgins under contract for 2012. However, there's not much out there aside from Aramis Ramirez, so the Mariners will likely have to decide between so-so secondary options and in-house solutions.
  • The A's demoted catcher Landon Powell to Triple-A Sacramento so that he could get some regular at bats, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
  • Coco Crisp and Rich Harden were claimed on waivers and pulled back, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. If Oakland puts the players on waivers again, they won't be able to pull them back. The A’s first placed Harden and Crisp on waivers a week ago.

Heath Bell, Carlos Pena, Kubel Placed On Waivers

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Heath Bell, Jason Kubel, and Carlos Pena were placed on trade waivers today, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Rosenthal tweeted earlier about Jim Thome being placed, also.  The placement on waivers starts a 48 hour period during which teams can put in claims.  Hundreds of players are placed on waivers in August, but these four are notable because they do appear to be trade candidates.

Bell, the Padres' closer, sports a 2.60 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.35 HR/9, and 42.9% groundball rate in 52 innings this year.  That's a big dropoff from his typical strikeout rate.  The 33-year-old has $1.5MM left on his contract.  He projects as a Type A free agent, but has said he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer.  Owner Jeff Moorad said this month that Bell accepting arbitration would be preferable in some ways, but if the Padres aren't actually interested in a potential eight-figure one-year deal for Bell, they've got two days to move him. Dan Mennella took a look at the fantasy impact of the move at CloserNews.

Kubel, 29, is hitting .295/.350/.456 in 326 plate appearances for the Twins, playing right field and DH.  The left-handed hitter has about $1MM plus incentives left on his contract and currently profiles as a Type B free agent in the American League.  He earns more than Thome, but not so much that we can rule out a team claiming him mostly for the draft pick.

Pena, 33, is hitting .222/.342/.455 with 23 home runs in 480 plate appearances this year for the Cubs.  Though he projects as a Type B, teams might be reluctant to offer arbitration given his salary.  He's owed about $1MM for the rest of the year, and the Cubs will be on the hook for a deferred $5MM in January even if they trade him.

Two players who will not be traded this month: Oakland's Rich Harden and Coco Crisp, who were claimed on waivers but pulled back according to this report yesterday from Rosenthal.  Today, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that the Indians won the claim on Harden, but could not work out a deal.

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