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Archives for September 2011

Poll: Baseball’s Most Disappointing Team

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The Reds, Rockies, White Sox, Twins and Athletics were all expected to contend for the postseason this year, but those teams are all at least nine games out of a playoff berth at this point. It’s safe to say they’re among baseball’s most disappointing teams, but they’re not the only clubs that have fallen short of expectations. 

The Marlins expected more from Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez, who are both on the 60-day DL. The Astros are heading for the first 100-loss season in the history of their franchise and the Cubs and Dodgers aren’t contending despite having two of the game's biggest payrolls.

To one extent or another, each one of those teams has disappointed. Which one has been the biggest disappointment of all?

Five Non-Moves That Shaped The 2011 Season

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Blockbuster trades and record-breaking free agent contracts are lots of fun, but not all rumors turn into reality. Some of the storylines that dominated MLBTR early on this season never actually happened. Here’s a look back at five of them:

  1. Giants don’t replace Buster Posey – Last year’s Rookie of the Year went down on May 25th. Since then, the Giants have seen their catchers hit .208/.272/.298 with five homers. The Giants wouldn’t necessarily be leading the NL West if they had acquired reinforcements, but I’m comfortable saying the first-place Diamondbacks didn’t mind seeing Brian Sabean roll out Eli Whiteside, Chris Stewart and Hector Sanchez instead of acquiring a replacement. Finding catching midseason is never easy and the Giants’ non-Posey catchers did limit the running game (34% of would-be base stealers caught), but the defending World Champions could have done better.
  2. Padres hold Heath Bell – It was a foregone conclusion that the Padres would trade Heath Bell this year. Instead of pitching for a contender, he’s playing out the season in San Diego, wondering how the Padres will handle him this offseason.
  3. Yankees don’t acquire starting pitching – Ubaldo Jimenez, Wandy Rodriguez and Hiroki Kuroda were all linked to the Yankees, who seemed to be in need of pitching depth from day one. 141 games later, Yankees starters lead the American League in K/9 (7.1), are second in xFIP (3.78) and fifth in ground ball rate (44.9%). Brian Cashman’s reluctance to overpay for pitching in trades has allowed Ivan Nova to blossom, but it hasn’t answered questions about who will follow C.C. Sabathia in New York’s playoff rotation.
  4. Rays stand pat – B.J. Upton, Johnny Damon, James Shields and Kyle Farnsworth all made regular appearances on MLBTR this summer, but they stayed put. Executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who spent the July 31st trade deadline having his appendix removed, added summer reinforcements by calling up hot-hitting prospect Desmond Jennings a week before the deadline.
  5. Mets hold Jose Reyes – It's easy to wonder what the Mets would have obtained for Jose Reyes if they had dangled him in early July. He was hitting .354/.398/.529 at the time and had yet to spend time on the disabled list this year. The Mets, who are expected to pursue Reyes when he hits free agency this offseason, held onto him instead of sending him to a contender. Though Reyes missed time in July and August, he would have provided a contending team with a boost (and provided the Mets with more prospects).

Astros Notes: Scouts, Crane, American League

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The Astros have been around for 50 seasons and they have never lost 100 games. That's going to change this year, once Houston, now 48-95, loses five more contests. Here are today's Astros-related links, as Houston's fans look forward to having the first overall draft pick in 2012…

  • The Astros informed two scouts that their contracts won’t be renewed, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes. Rusty Pendergrass, who signed Hunter Pence, and area scout Lincoln Martin are gone, since the Astros wanted to go in another direction. 
  • Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle says Pendergrass may be the hardest worker he has known and passes along a 2008 column about the scout who signed Pence, Ben Zobrist and others.
  • If Jim Crane's purchase of the Astros falls through, it won't be because of a refusal to move to the American League, Justice writes. It could be a factor in MLB's decision, but there are other, equally complicated issues to resolve.
  • Justice explains why moving to the AL wouldn’t be such a bad thing for Astros fans.

Cubs Notes: Pena, Ramirez, LaHair

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The Cubs are 62-81, well on their way to earning a top draft pick in 2012. Here's the latest from Chicago…

  • Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena have made it clear that they want to remain with the Cubs next year, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Until the Cubs hire a general manager to replace Jim Hendry, it's difficult to say whether Ramirez and Pena are likely to return.
  • Ramirez tells the Sun-Times that Chicago isn't Milwaukee and wouldn't have the patience for a long rebuilding process.
  • Reds manager Dusty Baker, who managed the Cubs under Hendry, told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that he hopes his old boss finds a new job in baseball. The Cubs fired Hendry last month.
  • The Cubs appear to be leaning toward bringing Pena back, but Bryan LaHair, this year's Pacific Coast League MVP, told Sullivan that he's hoping to make an impression on the Cubs this month and earn a chance in 2012.

Atlanta’s Starting Pitching Depth

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The Braves blew a late-inning lead before losing a painful game to the Phillies tonight, but if Atlanta goes on to win in the playoffs this year, their bullpen will probably be a major reason for their success. The Braves’ late inning trio of Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel is as good as it gets.

Brandon Beachy

Health permitting, the three relievers figure to return to Atlanta in 2012, but the same can’t necessarily be said for the Braves’ starting corps. Every one of the eight pitchers who has started a game for the Braves in 2011 is under team control next year and with a trio of MLB-ready arms entering the discussion for big league rotation spots, it won’t be surprising if the Braves hear an offer or two for their surplus arms.

Before we get too carried away with assumptions about health, it’s important to note that two Braves starters are on the disabled list and another one is dealing with an injury. Kris Medlen hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery last August and won’t be ready before 2012. Tommy Hanson is also on the disabled list (shoulder) and Jair Jurrjens (knee) is banged up as well.

Despite those injuries, the Braves have a full rotation: Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Brandon Beachy (pictured), Mike Minor and Randall Delgado. Top prospects Arodys Vizcaino and Julio Teheran (who will start one of tomorrow’s games) also represent viable rotation options for manager Fredi Gonzalez.

All told, the Braves have nine options. Hudson, Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, Beachy and Minor have all had extended looks in the rotation this year, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino spent most of the 2011 season in the minors and Medlen, a wild card heading into 2012, hasn’t pitched at all. 

Not only do the Braves have nine pitchers around in 2012, most of them are under team control in 2013 (Lowe’s contract expires after next season and the Braves have a $9MM club option for Hudson in ’13). This group isn’t going anywhere.

As unusual as it is for a team to have too much pitching, this Braves team may find themselves with extra arms over the winter. Unlike most teams, however, the Braves already have the main components of their roster in place for 2012. They won’t have many obvious holes to address over the winter.

Yet the Braves aren’t set at every position – shortstop Alex Gonzalez hits free agency and Martin Prado hasn't shown the on-base skills or power you'd expect from a left fielder. If the Braves decide not to retain the slick-fielding Gonzalez and opt to move Prado back into a utility role, they could have holes at shortstop and left field (assuming they don’t view Jose Constanza as a permanent solution). 

The Braves are a playoff-caliber team and they seem poised to contend in 2012, but significant needs could emerge within a month or two. Wren avoided last year's free agent frenzy and if he hopes to do the same this offseason without ignoring possible weaknesses, he could make the organization's pitching depth available in trades.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: McGowan, Marlins, Giambi

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Guillermo Moscoso held the Royals hitless until the eighth inning this afternoon, but Salvador Perez singled, ending Moscoso's bid for a no-hitter. Though the A’s right-hander didn’t make history, Tim Wakefield may do so later tonight if he picks up career win #200. Here are this evening’s links…

  • Dustin McGowan, who returned to the Major Leagues after three years of rehab last night, told Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star that the most emotional moment of his comeback came when he jogged in from the bullpen to the mound with many Blue Jays fans on their feet.
  • The Marlins aim to develop more homegrown arms, president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest told Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post notes that there's a good chance Jason Giambi will return to the Rockies next season, regardless of the state of Todd Helton's back (Twitter link).

Where The Market For Pujols & Fielder Stands

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With three weeks to go in the regular season, it’s clear that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will be the most tempting free agents on the market this offseason. With all due respect to Jose Reyes, C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson, the two first basemen are likely to command the biggest free agent contracts of the winter.  

Prince Pujols

Pujols, 31, is having the worst season of his career in terms of average (.293), on-base percentage (.366) and slugging percentage (.549), but the three-time MVP leads the National League in homers and is tenth in OPS. Not bad for an off-year.

Fielder has a .292/.405/.542 line with 31 homers and a league-leading 108 runs batted in. Plus, he’s still just 27 years old. Like Pujols, Fielder will cost a top draft pick, but teams are prepared to surrender those picks for elite production.

Not every team needs a first baseman and not every team can afford a nine-figure contract for a single player, regardless of how productive he is. Heading into the season, we knew that the market for Fielder and Pujols would be limited to half of the teams in baseball at the absolute best. Now that we’re 140 games into the season, we have a sense of which clubs have a need at first base and which ones don’t. 

Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes provided a reason why each MLB team could back away from Fielder, who has always seemed more likely to test free agency than Pujols. At this point, Pujols must also want to see what’s out there and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says he’s ready for his franchise player to test the market.

Fielder’s representative, Scott Boras, and Pujols’ representative, Dan Lozano, have no doubt started sizing the first base market already. Here’s how it looks: 

Five Teams Likely To Have Interest

The Cardinals want Pujols back, so we’ll hear about them until he signs. Similarly, the Brewers will likely express some interest in bringing Fielder back, though their chances of re-signing him have never seemed particularly good.

The new Cubs general manager could grab some headlines by signing Pujols or Fielder away from a division rival and replacing free agent Carlos Pena with a more complete player. The Rangers, who have Michael Young and Mike Napoli in the mix at first base, have been aggressive under new ownership, signing Adrian Beltre and pursuing Cliff Lee.

Despite the financial troubles of owner Frank McCourt, we can’t rule out the Dodgers. James Loney has been doing his best to avoid the non-tender that once seemed inevitable, but his torrid August won’t make GM Ned Colletti forget about Pujols and Fielder.

Ten Teams The Agents Would Do Well To Engage

The Yankees and Red Sox already have elite first basemen, so Lozano and Boras would have to sell the teams (and potentially their clients) on DH roles. Both clubs will have more pressing needs to address, but you can’t rule out either, so prepare to hear about Boston and New York in connection with the two first basemen.

Like the Cubs, the Orioles will likely have a new general manager in town. That person will have to decide whether it’s worth spending big instead of relying on in-house options like Luke Scott, Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds. The Mariners are in a similar situation to the Orioles in that they don’t appear poised to contend in 2012 and have internal options, namely Justin Smoak and Mike Carp.

Blue Jays fans, prepare yourselves for a November MLBTR headline that reads something like this: ‘Blue Jays Interested In Fielder, Pujols.’ Toronto’s front office is tight-lipped about free agent moves, so many available players get linked to the Jays, even when the club’s interest is tepid. The Jays have money and would be a better team with an elite first baseman, so that headline may be worth clicking on.

The Angels have two first basemen (Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo) and five outfielders (Peter Bourjos, Mike Trout, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu) for five total spots. Unless GM Tony Reagins gets really creative on the trade market, I don’t see much room at first or DH.

The same could be said about the Nationals, who have Mike Morse and Adam LaRoche at first base, but let’s not rule Washington out. Their connection with Boras has been well-documented and they may view Pujols and Fielder as the kind of player who could push them into contention (and push Morse to the outfield).

Though there may be some rumblings about the Marlins’ potential interest, it’s hard to imagine them coming through with the winning bid, even as they head into a new ballpark. Gaby Sanchez’s presence further lessens the likelihood of a deal, but both agents could have interest in engaging Florida just in case.

The D’Backs and Giants are sleepers in the Pujols-Fielder sweepstakes. The NL West rivals could both use a boost at first base (only four clubs have gotten a lower OPS from their first basemen this year), but both have incumbents at the position. Would it be that hard to find another role for Paul Goldschmidt? How about relegating Aubrey Huff to the bench and moving Brandon Belt to the outfield? These are question the D’Backs and Giants could ask themselves this offseason. 

15 Teams That Don’t Appear To Be Fits

The Rays, Indians, Pirates, Padres and Athletics don’t have the money to get involved (though the latter three teams rank 28th, 29th and 30th in OPS at first base this year).

It’s hard to imagine Pujols or Fielder signing with an AL Central club, since the Tigers, White Sox, Twins and Royals already have first basemen and/or DHs in place. That leaves the Rockies, Astros, Reds, Braves, Mets and Phillies, who all have established first basemen and bigger offseason needs.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Selig Talks Playoffs, Retirement

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Commissioner Bug Selig told Yahoo's Jeff Passan that he still hopes to have another playoff team in each league by next year. However, many details have yet to be worked out and there are related issues such as realignment to resolve, so the chances of expanded playoffs by next year are "iffy at best," Passan writes.

The possibility of realigning the divisions relates closely to playoff expansion, so the Astros' ownership change affects the discussions. Incoming owner Jim Crane has softened his stance on moving his team to the AL West, Passan reports. Three AL West teams are in the Pacific Time Zone, but that didn't stop the Rangers from obtaining a lucrative TV deal, so Crane is entertaining the idea moving his new club to the American League.

Selig maintains that the upcoming collective bargaining agreement will be his last. “Even though a lot of people don’t believe it, I’m done Dec. 31 of next year,” he told Passan.  

Pujols, Mozeliak Talk Contract

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Albert Pujols told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he doesn’t want to think about his next contract, though he knows that “things will start to get crazy again” in a matter of weeks when he hits free agency for the first time in his career. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, who has’t discussed a contract with Pujols since Spring Training, says he still aims to lock the first baseman up to ensure that he spends the rest of his career in St. Louis.

"When we get to October," Mozeliak told Nightengale, "we'll start over and go from there. I can't characterize where we'll begin, but we've waited this long, we might want to see where the market brings."

The Cardinals offered Pujols a nine-year deal worth about $195MM last offseason, Nightengale reports. Earlier today, Jon Heyman of SI.com reported that the Cardinals' nine-year offer would have been worth $210MM and noted that the Cards aren't overly confident about retaining their biggest star. In any case, the offers weren’t enough to entice the 31-year-old Pujols. He and agent Dan Lozano were seeking a ten-year deal in the $230MM range.

There’s a long list of teams that could enter the sweepstakes for Pujols, who leads the National League with 34 homers and has a .293/.366/.549 line this year in his worst MLB season. There are rumblings that the Marlins may look to pursue Pujols or fellow free agent Prince Fielder this offseason before heading into their new stadium, according to Nightengale.

AL West Notes: Delabar, Seager, Trout

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On this date in 1998, Ken Griffey Jr. reached the 50-homer plateau for the second consecutive season. No one in the AL West will reach 50 homers this year – Nelson Cruz of the Rangers leads the division with 28. Here are today's AL West links… 

  • Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times tells the story of right-hander Steve Delabar, who was substitute teaching not long ago and has now joined the Mariners' big league pitching staff. 
  • Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner would like to see the Mariners play Kyle Seager at third on a daily basis. Alex Liddi, another option, appears to need more Triple-A seasoning despite the 30 minor league homers he hit this year. 
  • Mike Trout is Baseball America's minor league player of the year and B.A.’s J.J. Cooper explains that the Angels outfielder stood out as a big league prospect when he was just 16 years old. Click through for old scouting reports on Trout, who’s still just 20.

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