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Guerrero Hopes To Play Two Or Three More Years

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Vladimir Guerrero told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that he hopes to play two or three more seasons in the Major Leagues instead of retiring after the season.  The 36-year-old is just three hits behind Julio Franco for the all-time Dominican hits record and one homer away from 450 for his career. Though he could reach both milestones in 2011, he expects to be back next year.

“I feel I can play two or three more years,” he told Connolly. “And I just need to work a little harder this offseason when I go to the Dominican and see what happens.”

Guerrero has 2,583 hits, 449 homers and a .318/.379/.553 line 16 seasons into a career that will probably deliver him to Cooperstown soon after he retires. It seems unlikely that the Orioles will re-sign the 36-year-old, who earned $8MM on a one-year deal in 2011.

Guerrero projects as a Type B free agent, not that it matters much – it’s hard to imagine an offer of arbitration from the Orioles. In 556 plate appearances this year, the nine-time All-Star has a .292/.320/.423 line with 13 homers.

Major Offseason Signings Possible For Dodgers

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The Dodgers are a bankrupt company with declining revenues, but that doesn’t have to stop them from offering nine-figure contracts to their best players and the stars on the free agent market, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. Shaikin surveyed players, agents, union officials and MLB executives and heard that the Dodgers will be able to spend despite the ongoing financial issues of owner Frank McCourt.

 Michael Weiner is not only the executive director of the Players Association, he represents the interests of the Dodgers’ creditors. He says it’s in “everyone's interest for the team to be competitive and not compromised in trying to operate." Rob Manfred, MLB’s executive VP for labor relations, told Shaikin that McCourt is ”free to sign players to long-term contracts," though deals could require approval if they surpass $100MM.

The Dodgers’ revenues will likely drop $27MM this year, but MLB guarantees all player contracts, according to Shaikin. That means a team’s bankruptcy wouldn’t put a player at risk of losing any guaranteed money on a pre-existing deal. 

GM Ned Colletti has talked about improving the team’s offense in “the most dramatic” way he can, so fans have started wondering about a long-term deal for MVP candidate Matt Kemp and the possibility of signing a middle-of-the-order hitter like Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart, told Shaikin that the Dodgers have not started discussing a long-term deal for the center fielder, who can file for free agency after 2012. Kemp isn’t worried about the direction of the team and would consider a multiyear deal if the Dodgers make a proposal.

Fielder has said that he’ll evaluate possible suitors based on their ability to win, but Scott Boras, the first baseman’s agent, pointed out that all players aren’t so forgiving. Pujols has said he plans to weigh offers from teams based on a number of factors, including minor league systems and the willingness of ownership groups to spend on improving the team, according to Shaikin.

Quick Hits: Willingham, Rivera, Royals, Wilson

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Links for Wednesday, as the Cardinals, Rays and Angels try to make improbable surges into the playoffs with some late-season magic…

NL West Notes: D’Backs, Giants, Dodgers, Ramirez

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The Padres fired GM Jack McKeon on this date in 1990. Now the Marlins' skipper, McKeon is nearly 81 and still going strong. Here's the latest from his former division…

  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law says D'Backs executive Jerry Dipoto deserves significant credit for his team's success, just as former GM Josh Byrnes and current GM Kevin Towers do. Dipoto steered the team through the 2010 trade deadline, acquiring Daniel Hudson among others. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes spoke to Dipoto last month for our GM Candidates series.
  • The spirit of last year's World Champion Giants has been lost to "exhausting expectations, demoralizing injuries, down years and a weekly reality show," Tim Brown writes at Yahoo. 
  • Bill Burke, who submitted a $1.2 billion bid for the Dodgers in late August, told Bill Shaikin of the LA Times that owner Frank McCourt did not respond to the offer. It expired yesterday, but Burke offered McCourt an extension. An attorney for McCourt dismissed the offer as a publicity stunt earlier this month, which makes a deal seem highly unlikely.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post has heard that the Rockies aren't looking at Aramis Ramirez (Twitter link). Ramirez said yesterday that he has probably played his last game as a Cub.

Friedman On Rays’ Pitching Depth

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Some rival executives and scouts believe the Rays should trade some of their starting pitching depth for offense this winter, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. But executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman sees things differently.

"Starting pitching depth is very fleeting," Friedman said. "While we have it right now, we can't wake up one day with three or four starters, where we have to go looking on the market. We're absolutely doomed if that happens. We're certainly not going into the winter saying we have too much starting pitching." 

Knobler reports that the Reds and Tigers were among the teams interested in James Shields at the trade deadline, but the Rays hung onto the durable right-hander instead. Joining Shields in the projected 2012 rotation are David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and, if injury strikes, Matt Moore or Alex Cobb.

The Royals will be interested in trading for pitching help this offseason and it's easy to imagine teams like the Rockies, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Marlins and A's checking in if the Rays are entertaining trade offers.

Mets Notes: DePodesta, Rotation, Collins

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The Mets will try to slow the Cardinals' bid for a playoff berth when the two teams take the field in St. Louis tonight. In the meantime, here are some Mets-related links… 

  • Mets executive Paul DePodesta told Bill Plaschke of the LA Times that he doesn't particularly want to become a general manager again. "From my perspective, it's not necessarily a great job," he said. DePodesta was the Dodgers’ GM in 2004 and 2005.
  • GM Sandy Alderson said on last night's TV broadcast that he expects to have a similar rotation next season, according to Michael Baron of MetsBlog. Alderson is hoping for growth from Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese and Baron is hoping that the rotation will go deeper into games.
  • Alderson says that if the Mets make changes to spacious Citi Field for next year they won't be subtle, according to Andrew Keh of the New York Times. The Mets are interested in making the three-year-old park more fair and Alderson knows that "offense sells."
  • It doesn’t appear that the Mets are going to sign manager Terry Collins to an extension in the near future, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. The skipper is under contract in 2012 and the Mets have a team option for 2013.

Stark On CBA, Rays, Lidge, Rockies

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ESPN.com's Jayson Stark makes the case that Justin Verlander is the MVP of the American League before providing a new set of rumblings from around baseball. Here they are…

  • MLB and the players' association hope to announce the details of a new labor deal before the World Series ends, but they have some major issues to work out before then. Stark hears that the draft, including spending and compensation, could be an ongoing source of tension this month.
  • The sides have discussed a reverse luxury tax that would penalize teams that spend well under the average payroll.
  • MLB executives are impressed by the way the Rays have resisted rushing young pitchers to the Major Leagues to ensure they're prepared for a full season of work once they arrive. Tampa Bay executive Gerry Hunsicker says it's "not rocket science."
  • One rival executive thinks James Shields is staying put this winter. It won't be surprising if the Rays listen on Shields, since he would have through-the-roof value as a trade chip.
  • Brad Lidge, who has pitched well since returning from the disabled list, will listen to offers from teams that are interested in him as a setup man this offseason, according to agent Rex Gary. There's no indication that the Phillies have discussed a new deal with Lidge, though he is open to returning to Philadelphia (the team will decline its $12.5MM option for 2012). 
  • The Rockies will try to lower payroll by $4MM or so to the $83-84MM range this offseason and they may get partway there by dealing Chris Iannetta.
  • Stark heard from rival executives who expect Albert Pujols to stay in St. Louis, Prince Fielder to join the Nationals and Jose Reyes to sign in San Francisco.

Phillips Won’t Offer Reds Hometown Discount

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Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he hopes to stay in Cincinnati, where he established himself as an MLB star. Just don’t expect him to give the Reds a hometown discount if they want to talk extension this offseason.

“No bueno,” he said. “This is my last contract. There’s no homeboy hookup. That ain’t going to work. I want to be paid what I’m worth.”

The Reds can sidestep questions about Phillips’ long-term role on the team by exercising their $12MM option for the 30-year-old’s services in 2012. Though Phillips told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon this month that it would feel like “a slap in my face” if the Reds pick up the option without talking long-term deal, that remains a perfectly viable option for the team.

Phillips says he’s glad Reds GM Walt Jocketty expects to have him back in 2012 and that he hasn’t heard anything official about his option for next year. The sides have had some talks about an extension and, as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes suggested this morning, a backloaded deal might work for the Reds given their limited financial flexibility heading into 2012.

Royals Designate Kila Ka’aihue For Assignment

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It wasn't long ago that Kila Ka'aihue seemed like a promising piece of the Royals' future. But the Hawaiian first baseman doesn't appear to fit into their long-term plans any more, despite the career minor league on-base percentage of .390 that has endeared him to the statistically minded. Kansas City designated the 27-year-old for assignment to create 40-man roster space for right-handed reliever Kelvin Herrera, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.

Ka'aihue has excelled in ten minor league seasons, posting a career line of .266/.390/.458 that includes a .272/.379/.433 line this year in his fourth stint at Triple-A. The 2002 draft pick has had some opportunities against Major League pitching, but has just a .216/.309/.375 line in 326 MLB plate appearances.

Though Ka'aihue has admittedly poor stats in the Major Leagues, he also appears to have been unlucky on balls in play (.242 BABIP). It won't be surprising if a small market team without a long-term answer at first base claims Ka'aihue or works out a trade for him (the Rays have an open 40-man spot; the Pirates don't).

Rosenthal On Moneyball

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to a slew of top executives about Moneyball, with the movie coming out Friday.  Here are a few highlights.

  • Executives Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) and Mark Shapiro (Indians) agree that the stark line drawn by the 2003 book between scouting and statistics is not present today.  I've yet to find a baseball executive who doesn't prefer a blend.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman admits that the Red Sox "were having a great deal of success with players of lesser ability," adding, "I studied what they were doing to some degree, adjusted accordingly, brought the Yankees up to speed, brought us into the 21st century."
  • Shapiro, president of the Indians, expects further dominance of big-market teams in the next five to seven years.  He added, "That doesn’t preclude small-market teams from winning. But they’re going to go in and out, go through cycles of winning, then violently remaking their rosters." 
  • Paul DePodesta told Rosenthal he thinks the explosion of information in baseball would have happened without Moneyball, but Cashman and Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. noted that they were pleased to see Oakland's methods revealed in the book.
  • Braves president John Schuerholz doesn't think so-called Moneyball teams have been successful, saying, "I think everyone looked and I don’t think many considered it a better mousetrap. You look at the won-loss records of the teams that adopted and the teams that didn’t, I don’t think you’ll find much of a difference in the impact."
  • Brewers GM Doug Melvin is losing some faith, based on "some bad experiences with possible deals that I might have made based off numbers."
  • Athletics GM Billy Beane believes injuries represent a current opportunity, if a team can create an advantage in prevention and treatment.  DePodesta noted that inefficiencies arise every five or six years, when a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.

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