Felix Hernandez’s No-Trade Clause
Mariners ace Felix Hernandez can block trades to ten teams, and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports learned eight of them: the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Rangers, and Phillies. Morosi adds:
We shouldn’t infer from that list that Hernandez wants to avoid large-market clubs. Rather, astute players (and agents) will often protect against trades to high-revenue teams, because those clubs (a) are most likely to be interested in acquiring expensive players and (b) have the wherewithal to offer financial inducements that encourage players to waive the clauses.
Hernandez, 25 next month, is owed $70.5MM over the next four years under the contract he signed in January of 2010. Many teams would salivate if he were made available, but GM Jack Zduriencik recently told SI's Jon Heyman, "He's not going anywhere. We've got him. We'll keep him. We're not going to move him."
I don't see any reason to doubt Zduriencik or expect him to change his mind. 2011 may be a regrouping year for the Mariners, but they're surely expecting to contend before 2014.
Delaying Free Agency
Some teams don't concern themselves with service time manipulation, for example the Braves in the case of Jason Heyward last year. Others are all about it, taking great pains to ensure the player's free agency is delayed by a year and that he avoids Super Two status.
By my calculations, the MLB regular season is 182 days long this year (March 31st through September 28th). 172 days of service time represents one year, so a team just has to make sure their top prospect makes his MLB debut at a point where it's impossible to accrue more than 171 days. In 2011, that point appears to be April 11th or later.
For example, if the Mariners feel Michael Pineda is ready to join their rotation, they can at least wait until April 11th to call him up. This would ensure he's eligible for free agency after the 2017 season at the earliest. Call him up on April 10th or earlier, and if he stays in the Majors continuously you only control him through 2016. Jesus Montero, Zach Britton, and Matt Dominguez are a few other top prospects in the running to break camp with their teams and have their service time clocks start on March 31st. Brandon Belt and Brett Lawrie, meanwhile, appear ticketed for Triple-A.
The best recent example of a possible intentional free agency postponement is the Rays' Evan Longoria, who started the '08 season at Triple-A and spent 13 days there before making his big league debut. He ended up accruing 170 days of service time in '08, two days short of a full year. Rays players were unhappy when Longoria was reassigned, but executive vice president Andrew Friedman said service time considerations were "virtually irrelevant" in their decision because the Rays expected to sign the third baseman long-term. Longoria didn't get much Triple-A seasoning that year, but his April 12th call-up was necessitated by Willy Aybar going on the DL. Whether Longoria would have gotten the call had Aybar's injury occurred three days earlier, we'll never know.
The Rays managed to lock Longoria up to an unprecedented contract less than a week after his debut. But in that contract, 2014 represents his first free agent year, when it would have been 2013 had he broken camp with the team. As it stands, Longoria gave the team club options on three free agent years. Had he been called up a few days earlier, the contract might only allow for options through 2015 instead of '16.
Regardless of their intent regarding Longoria's debut, the Rays at least couldn't be accused of trying to prevent him from going to arbitration four times as a Super Two player. That may have been the plan for Jay Bruce and Matt Wieters, though the Reds were probably surprised to see Bruce eligible for Super Two status with two years and just 125 days of service time. Super Two manipulations may be more trouble than they're worth, especially with possible changes coming in the next collective bargaining agreement.
AL East Notes: Bowden, Chavez, Cliff Lee
AL East notes, as Jon Lester gets the Opening Day nod for the Red Sox…
- Michael Bowden told WEEI's Mike Petraglia he knows he has a slim chance to make Boston's bullpen, so he hopes to create an opportunity for himself in Triple-A. The 24-year-old former first-round pick could be a nice trade chip for the Red Sox should a need arise; he could start for another club.
- Athletics GM Billy Beane explained to Joel Sherman of the New York Post why he felt Eric Chavez was on a Hall of Fame career path when he locked up the third baseman for $66MM seven years ago. Now 33 and operating on a minor league deal, Chavez appears likely to have his contract purchased by the Yankees to begin the season. In a blog post, Sherman notes that Andruw Jones, unlike Chavez, "is creating no buzz in Yankee camp."
- Talking to Brian Costello of the New York Post, Yankees GM Brian Cashman responded to Cliff Lee's comment that "it seems like some of the Yankee guys are getting older." Lee never raised that issue to Cashman, who concluded, "It doesn't really matter. It was a marriage that was not meant to be. That's life."
Rafael Soriano’s Contract
Opt-out clauses and player options often result in no-win situations for teams, as in the cases of A.J. Burnett and J.D. Drew in offseasons past. Both players were performing well enough to opt out and score much bigger contracts, a path that C.C. Sabathia could follow after the 2011 season. My initial reaction when Scott Boras negotiated two opt-outs within Rafael Soriano's three-year, $35MM deal with the Yankees was that the team made a major concession. However, upon a closer look I'm not so sure.
The most baffling aspect of Soriano's contract is the suggestion that his $11.67MM average salary represented a drop in his price tag. If that's a discount, I can't imagine what Boras was asking for at the beginning of the offseason. In January, it wasn't even clear that Soriano had a second serious suitor.
Had he not saved 72 games over the last two seasons, I imagine Soriano's salary would have been around $6MM a year, about half what he got from the Yankees and the going rate for a top setup man. Closer inflation is the reason I don't expect Soriano to opt out of his contract at either of his chances. If he puts up a strong 2011 season but saves fewer than ten games, what team would pay him more than the two years and $23.5MM left on his contract? If Soriano sets up for Rivera in 2012 as well, what team would offer him more than $12.5MM for one year? Soriano needs to hope for relief contracts to take additional leaps forward in the next two offseasons.
The main benefit to Soriano is the chance to try for a longer term after the '11 or '12 seasons. But if you factor in a reduced setup man salary on a new deal, I'm still skeptical that he'd risk opting out. A strong 2011 might allow Soriano to find a three-year deal for around $25MM, but that's not a big enough improvement over the two years and $23.5MM that would remain on his current deal. Getting three years as opposed to one after the '12 season has added appeal, but the Yankees backloaded Soriano's contract so that it'll still be a tough choice for him. For Soriano to have a clear reason to opt out at either point, he may need to be coming off a season in which he dominates and racks up 30+ saves. Since Rivera is 42 now, that is possible.
Soriano is an injury risk, and I've seen the argument that the opt-out clauses ensure he'll remain with the Yankees if he suffers a major injury. That would have been the case anyway on a normal guaranteed three-year deal.
Aside from the Yankees bidding against themselves, the biggest concern about the Soriano contract is the potential erosion of GM Brian Cashman's autonomy, as he was said to be opposed to signing Soriano due to the loss of the #31 overall draft pick to the Rays. Co-owners Hank and Hal Steinbrenner and team president Randy Levine reportedly made the final decision to sign Soriano, though Wallace Matthew's source insisted:
"Cash has not lost one iota of credibility or autonomy over this. There has been no loss of faith in him at all. Cash is in charge of all baseball operations, but he would never in a million years tell you ownership doesn't make the final decisions. It's their money, not his."
Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians
The Indians are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League/International Signings
- Austin Kearns, OF: one year, $1.3MM.
- Orlando Cabrera, 2B: one year, $1MM.
- Chad Durbin, RP: one year, $800K.
- Total spend: $3.1MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Adam Everett, Nick Johnson, Travis Buck, Doug Mathis, Anthony Reyes, Luke Carlin, Jack Hannahan, Paul Phillips
Trades and Claims
- Acquired P Joe Martinez from Pirates for a player to be named later or cash considerations
- Acquired IF Matt Lawson and cash considerations from Mariners for P Aaron Laffey
Notable Losses
Summary
Chris Antonetti's first offseason as Indians GM marked the second year in a row the team spent about three million bucks on free agents. As opposed to the Pirates and Orioles, the Indians were not willing to spend money on free agent placeholders.
The Indians flipped Kearns for Yankees prospect Zach McAllister last summer, and that might be the plan if any of the veteran signings are having decent years at the trade deadline and the team is struggling. Durbin (pictured) is a solid reliever, and getting him for $800K is good value. I liked the minor league deals for Johnson and Buck, as both have upside and opportunity if they can get healthy.
Can the Indians become the surprise contender of 2011? The offense will ideally be elevated by full seasons from Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana. Position player reinforcements could arrive in the form of top prospects Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Nick Weglarz, and Cord Phelps. But even if we optimistically grant the Indians an above-average offense, to contend they'd need breakout performances from pitchers such as Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco, a strong debut from Alex White, and improvements from several of the relievers behind Chris Perez. It's a lot to ask.
The Tribe's farm system ranks seventh in baseball, according to Baseball America, which praised the club for having best 2010 draft of any team. They're stocked at both the lower and upper levels of the minors. This is a club that will get better in a hurry, even if 2011 is not the year.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Midseason Trade Candidates: National League
We outlined our American League trade candidates here; let's head over to the National League.
The Mets and Pirates strike me as two teams unlikely to contend in 2011. The Nationals, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Padres all made win-now type moves this offseason, but at least a few of these teams will be below .500 on July 31st.
- Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Francisco Rodriguez could be big-name trade chips for the Mets if they're healthy and playing well in July. Sandy Alderson could at least listen on Mike Pelfrey and Angel Pagan to see if someone will overpay. Additionally, most of the Mets' free agent signings profile as potential trade bait – Chris Capuano, Chris Young, D.J. Carrasco, Ronny Paulino, and Scott Hairston.
- The Pirates figure to be open to offers on many of their veterans – Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit, and Lyle Overbay for example. I can also envision Neal Huntington trying to extract a significant return for Joel Hanrahan. Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz, signed to two-year deals, might stay put.
- Like the Orioles, I think the Nationals might strive for a .500 season and hold on to their veterans if they're close. If not, Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Rick Ankiel, Todd Coffey, Livan Hernandez, and Nyjer Morgan could be available.
- The Astros' actions, such as extending Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez and bringing in Clint Barmes and Bill Hall, are not those of a rebuilding club. They might find Jeff Keppinger expendable, but I'm not counting on them listening on Myers, Rodriguez, or Hunter Pence.
- Likewise the Diamondbacks aren't in rebuilding mode, so they'd have to be playing pretty badly to start shopping Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, and Justin Upton. Less-critical veterans could be on the move.
- If things go wrong for the Padres I do see them moving parts, such as Heath Bell, Ryan Ludwick, Aaron Harang, Brad Hawpe, Chad Qualls, and Jorge Cantu.
- Clubs with strong depth include the Braves and Reds at starting pitcher and the Nationals at catcher. Again, it's tough to identify an ace starter who could hit the trade block. I don't see Chris Carpenter on the move unless things are really, really bad for St. Louis.
Make Or Break Year: Jeff Francis
Jeff Francis seemed headed for stardom when, at the age of 26, he won 17 games and pitched in the World Series. This offseason, in his first appearance on the free agent market, he signed with the Royals for $2MM plus incentives. It's a modest guarantee for a pitcher who still has promise entering 2011.
Teams aren't going to commit aggressively to pitchers who post 5.00 ERAs, especially if they aren't far removed from serious shoulder issues. Francis' ERA sat precisely at 5.00 after 104 1/3 innings of work last year, in his return to the majors after missing the 2009 campaign with shoulder surgery. The former 9th overall pick wasn't in position to command much as a free agent, even after a successful return to the major leagues.
But things could be different next offseason. Francis, who just turned 30 in January, is still relatively young. And if he puts together a full season, he'll have an easier time convincing teams that his shoulder is no longer a concern.
Though Francis' 2010 ERA and 4-6 record don't look good, his peripheral stats do. He posted a robust 47% ground ball rate last year, striking out nearly three times as many hitters as he walked. What's more, his FIP and xFIP suggest he was more deserving of an ERA under 4.00. And while the American League has the DH, it doesn't have Coors Field, the only home park Francis has known as a big leaguer.
There are no guarantees for Francis or for his new team. If he encounters more shoulder problems or struggles to surpass last year's innings total, the market for him won't be strong after the season. But a healthy year and a little more luck could position Francis for the big free agent contract he didn't sign this past offseason.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
NL Central Notes: Cubs, McClellan, Wallace, Rogers
Notes from the NL Central as Opening Day draws closer…
- Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com hears from Cubs sources that the team isn't talking to the Rangers about Michael Young. The Cubs maintain that they’re comfortable with Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt at second base.
- Kyle McClellan solidified his bid to become the Cardinals' fifth starter today. As MLB.com's Matthew Leach reports, the converted setup man pitched five shutout innings against the Braves, which presumably lessens the chances that the Cards look outside of the organization for starting pitching. I took a look at McClellan's role in St. Louis last week.
- Brett Wallace collected four hits and drove in seven today, according to MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli. The Astros acquired the first baseman from the Blue Jays last summer after obtaining Anthony Gose from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt deal. Wallace is vying to become Houston's everyday first baseman.
- As MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports, the Brewers optioned pitching prospect Mark Rogers to Triple-A today because they weren't confident his shoulder stiffness would go away in time for the season. Once he's at full strength, Rogers remains a candidate to fill in for Zack Greinke, who is expected to miss a few starts with a fractured rib.
Draft Prospect Q&A: George Springer
As the 2011 Draft draws closer, MLBTR will be introducing you to a handful of the top eligible prospects with a series of Q&As. The series started with three of the top college pitchers in the nation and continues today with a college position player.
Teams looking for powerful outfielders with speed to spare will be intrigued by George Springer of the UConn Huskies. The 6'4" 21-year-old has improved his draft stock dramatically since the Twins selected him in the 48th round of the 2008 draft; Springer is now a projected first round pick.
In its college baseball preview, Baseball America described Springer as one of the nation's best power hitters, who's a superb defender and a "plus-plus" runner to boot.
He hit 18 homers with 33 steals, 60 walks, 84 runs and a .491 on-base average last year, prompting ESPN.com's Keith Law to rate him second among eligible prospects last month. Law described Springer as "an athletic outfielder with an above-average arm who projects to hit and hit for power and just needs to refine his approach, especially with two strikes."
Springer started slowly and some said to ESPN that he changed his mechanics. After collecting just three hits in his first six games (22 at bats), Springer appears to have rediscovered his stroke, as his numbers are on the rise.
He spoke with MLBTR after UConn's loss to Sacred Heart today. Here's what he had to say:
AL East Notes: Martinez, Crawford, Sanchez
Daisuke Matsuzaka had his best outing of the spring against the Tigers today, allowing two hits and a walk in five scoreless innings, striking out five. Here's the latest on the AL East, as the Red Sox and their fans gain a little confidence in the back of their rotation…
- Victor Martinez, who was playing against his former team this afternoon, told the Boston Herald that he "loved" Boston and has no hard feelings toward the Red Sox. V-Mart added that he thinks the Red Sox are offseason winners because they improved their pitching and offense.
- Alex Speier of WEEI.com wonders what might have happened if the Red Sox had re-signed Martinez. A team source tells Speier that the Red Sox thought there was a chance the backstop would return. But as we heard earlier in the offseason, the Red Sox had doubts about Martinez's ability to catch long-term.
- If Martinez had returned, Speier hears that the Red Sox would have had the resources to pursue either Carl Crawford or Adrian Gonzalez, but not both.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears that Yankees right-hander Romulo Sanchez has been impressing scouts (Twitter link). The out-of-options 26-year-old could fit on a team looking for relief help, according to Rosenthal.