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The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think

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The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.

Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.

While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.

When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.

Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.

The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.

The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.

It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.

Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.

With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.

With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.

Jim Poole Passes Away

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Former big leaguer Jim Poole passed away yesterday at the age of 57. Poole, a left-handed reliever who pitched in 11 big league seasons from 1990-2000, pitched for eight MLB clubs during his career and was diagnosed with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, back in 2021. Beyond his big league career, Poole worked with the MLB Players’ Association for many years as a member of the union’s pension committee, and more recently served as chairman of the Major League Alumni Marketing board.

“Jim Poole left an indelible mark through the years as a teammate, friend, committed advocate for his fellow players, and, most importantly, a loving and devoted family man,” a statement from the MLBPA reads, “He was an inspiration during his playing career and a shining example of courage and grace in his fight against ALS.”

After being drafted in the ninth-round of the 1988 draft by the Dodgers out of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Poole made his MLB debut with the Dodgers in 1990, posting a 4.22 ERA in 10 2/3 innings. In 1991, Poole briefly suited up for the Rangers but made just five appearances before joining the Orioles, with whom he’d stay from 1991-94. During his time in Baltimore, Poole posted a 2.86 ERA that was 55% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a FIP of 3.65.

Poole moved on to Cleveland in 1995 and posted a 3.75 ERA in 50 1/3 innings before going on to pitch for the club in the World Series that year. After starting the 1996 season with the club, he was moved to the Giants midway through the season and stayed there for three seasons before ultimately returning to Cleveland late in the 1998 season. Though 1996 was among the best seasons of Poole’s career, with a 2.86 ERA in 50 1/3 innings of work, he struggled badly during the 1997 and ’98 seasons. He got back on his feet somewhat in 1999, posting a 4.33 ERA in 35 1/3 innings with the Phillies, though he struggled upon returning to Cleveland late in the year. Poole’s MLB career came to a close in 2000 after 10 2/3 innings of work split between the Tigers and Expos.

After his playing days came to an end, Poole remained active in the MLBPA and also worked as an investment manager for big league players. After being diagnosed with ALS in 2021, Poole became active in raising awareness regarding the disease. He was a board member of the nonprofit ALS Cure Project, which was founded in honor of Gretchen Piscotty, the mother of former big league outfielder Stephen Piscotty after she passed away in 2018. More recently, Poole was honored by the Orioles at Camden Yards last year on Lou Gehrig Day. Poole’s accomplishments off the field add to a resume that includes a career 4.31 ERA and 4.51 FIP in 363 big league innings during the regular season, along with a 2.45 career ERA during the postseason.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Poole’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates/colleagues.

Orioles, Rangers Announce ALDS Rosters

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The Rangers and Orioles begin their AL Division Series matchup today in Baltimore, with Texas southpaw Andrew Heaney starting against Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish.  With Game 1 just a few hours away, the two clubs each announced their full 26-man rosters for the series.

The most prominent omission is John Means, as O’s manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner) that Means is suffering from some minor elbow soreness.  Since Means hadn’t pitched since September 7, he threw a simulated game to keep his arm fresh, but that’s when the soreness developed.  As ominous as this sounds for a pitcher who only just returned from Tommy John surgery rehab a few weeks ago, Means is expected to be available should the Orioles advance to the ALCS.

Means posted a 2.66 ERA over 23 2/3 innings in his four starts since rejoining the roster after his lengthy rehab, though a tiny .130 BABIP helped paper over more concerning number.  Means’ 6.00 SIERA was far greater than his ERA, and while not a big strikeout pitcher even pre-surgery, the left-hander had only an 11.4% strikeout rate during his return.

There’s less surprise with the Texas roster, as the Rangers are fielding basically the same group who defeated the Rays in the Wild Card Series.  Left-hander Cody Bradford is the only newcomer, taking the spot of righty Grant Anderson as Texas is apparently looking for some more reinforcement against Baltimore’s array of left-handed bats.

Max Scherzer didn’t make the roster, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) writes that Scherzer isn’t ready for the start of the series, but could emerge by Game 3 in a relief role if an injury vacancy opens up on the Rangers’ roster.  Scherzer hasn’t pitched since September 12 due to a teres major strain, but though the injury was thought to be a probable season-ender, the superstar has been diligently strengthening his arm and throwing bullpen sessions.

Grayson Rodriguez will start Game 2 for the Orioles, but with Means out of action, Kyle Gibson and Dean Kremer now step up as the top options to start Game 3 and a possible Game 4.  Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi are lined up to start Games 2 and 3 for Texas, and two off-days in the series mean that it would likely be Montgomery against Bradish in a winner-take-all Game 5.

The full rosters…

Rangers

Orioles

MLBTR Poll: Division Series Winners

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All four Division Series get going tomorrow. The Wild Card series were mostly uncompetitive, with all four ending in a two-game sweep. We’re now on to best-of-five sets that can run through next Friday.

Rangers vs. Orioles

The second round begins in the afternoon when the Rangers head to Baltimore. Texas used Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to dispatch the Rays, so they’ll go with left-hander Andrew Heaney in Game 1. He’ll be opposed by Baltimore’s breakout staff ace, righty Kyle Bradish.

Texas won 90 games behind a star-studded lineup. Anchored by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim, the Rangers finished third in the majors in runs. The pitching staff is more questionable, especially with Max Scherzer’s availability for the postseason still uncertain. Montgomery and Eovaldi make for a strong top two, but the bullpen has been a concern all season.

Baltimore lost its elite closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery on the eve of the postseason. All-Star Yennier Cano steps into the ninth inning. The O’s sprinted to 101 wins this year, holding off the Rays to lock down an AL East title and the league’s top seed. Adley Rutschman, Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins headline a lineup that ranked seventh in run scoring. Bradish and rookie Grayson Rodriguez lead the rotation. It’s the first playoff appearance for most of a young but ultra-talented Baltimore group.

(poll link)

 

Twins vs. Astros

The second ALDS sends the AL Central winning Twins to Houston. Minnesota used Pablo López and Sonny Gray in their opening set. They’ll go with Bailey Ober in Game 1 opposite Justin Verlander.

Minnesota held the Blue Jays to one run in their opening series. They’ve had arguably the sport’s best starting rotation, ranking fourth in innings and trailing only the Padres in ERA. Their bullpen isn’t quite as deep, although flamethrowing Jhoan Duran is tough to handle in the ninth inning. While the lineup is built a little more on strong depth than star talent at the top, former first overall pick Royce Lewis raked at a .309/.372/.548 clip in 58 regular season games before launching homers in each of his first two career playoff at-bats against Toronto.

The Astros never quite clicked the way they had during their 106-win regular season last year. Yet even without ever fully running on all cylinders, the defending World Series champions won 90 games and swept Arizona in the final weekend to grab another AL West title. They’ll comfortably turn the ball to Verlander and Framber Valdez for the first two games to support a lineup with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve firing on all cylinders and backed by Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman and rookie catcher/DH Yainer Diaz.

(poll link)

 

Phillies vs. Braves

Arguably the most compelling of the Division Series pits the defending NL pennant winners against the best regular season team of 2023. Philadelphia began what they hope to be a second straight run from Wild Card to the Fall Classic by breezing past the Marlins in Round One. They needed Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to do so, so southpaw Ranger Suárez starts tomorrow. Atlanta counters with strikeout king Spencer Strider.

The Phils lean heavily on their excellent top three starters and a star-studded lineup. Bryce Harper has been characteristically stellar, while Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have gotten rolling following slow starts to the season. While the bullpen has been a concern for Philadelphia in prior Octobers, it has held up very well this year. Even though they never threatened Atlanta for a run at the top of the division, the Phils look like one of the most complete teams remaining.

Their pitching staff needs to be up for a challenge. The Braves counter with the best lineup in baseball, a group that runs nine deep and handily outslugged the rest of the league. Atlanta was the only team to reach the 250-homer plateau this year. They hit 307. Matt Olson led the league with 54 longballs and 139 RBI, Ronald Acuña Jr. went 40-70, and everyone else in the starting lineup hit at least 17 homers. To the extent there’s a concern with this team, it’s the rotation beyond Strider. Max Fried battled a blister at the end of the regular season, leaving a little uncertainty headed into his Game 2 start, while Charlie Morton will miss the series due to finger inflammation.

(poll link)

 

D-Backs vs. Dodgers

The Diamondbacks were the NL’s final playoff qualifier. Arizona knocked off Milwaukee in round one, with the sweep keeping them using #2 starter Merrill Kelly (who’d pitched in the regular season’s final weekend and was lined up for a potential Game 3). Instead, Kelly gets the nod tomorrow against Clayton Kershaw.

With NL Rookie of the Year lock Corbin Carroll leading off, Arizona has gotten strong work from Ketel Marte and underrated slugger Christian Walker. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. carries a hot streak into the postseason, while young catcher Gabriel Moreno had a great second half. Moreno left Game 2 against Milwaukee after being hit on the head with a backswing, but he’s expected to be full-go for this series (via Alden González of ESPN). The one-two of Kelly and Zac Gallen and a bullpen anchored by Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel gives the pitching staff strong talent at the top. The question is the depth — both at the bottom of the lineup and the back half of the starting rotation.

The Dodgers are legitimate World Series contenders yet again. They won 100 games for the fourth consecutive full season. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are going to finish in the top five in MVP balloting. J.D. Martinez is having his best season in a few years, while Max Muncy and rookie James Outman are significant power threats. The Dodgers have an elite collection of late-game arms, leading the majors with a 2.26 relief ERA in the second half behind Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol. It’s a relatively weak rotation for L.A., however. Kershaw’s velocity has been down as he pitches through shoulder discomfort, perhaps leaving rookie Bobby Miller as their most reliable starter. Dave Roberts figures to get to the bullpen early and often.

(poll link)

 

29 Players Elect Free Agency

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October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Jorge Lopez Elects Free Agency

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The Orioles announced this morning that right-hander Jorge Lopez has cleared waivers and elected free agency. He’ll test the open market this offseason alongside a bevy of right-handed relief options who figure to be available this offseason.

Lopez, 30, made his MLB debut back in 2015 with the Brewers and bounced around the league as a swing option for several years, struggling to a 6.04 ERA and 5.15 FIP from 2015-21 while playing for Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Baltimore. Prior to the 2022 campaign, the Orioles moved Lopez to the bullpen full time, and the early returns on that decision looked to be nothing short of revelatory: the righty was among the most dominant relievers in baseball for Baltimore in 2022, earning his first career All Star appearance while posting a 1.68 ERA with a 2.99 FIP and 27.6% strikeout rate across 48 1/3 innings of work.

On the back of those career-best numbers, the Orioles shipped Lopez to the Twins for a prospect package that included right-hander Yennier Cano and lefty Cade Povich. While the trade was a controversial one at the time thanks to the young Baltimore squad’s impressive run to that point in 2022, the move proved prescient. While Cano has broken out as an elite set-up man for the Orioles in 2023 and Povich is one of the club’s best pitching prospects, Lopez regressed with the Twins last year, posting a 4.37 ERA and 4.35 FIP in Minnesota that was 10% worse than league average by measure of ERA+.

While the Twins brought Lopez back to open the 2023 campaign, his struggles grew even worse this year. After 35 1/3 innings of 5.09 ERA baseball, Minnesota agreed to a change-of-scenery swap with the Marlins that sent Lopez to Miami in exchange for veteran righty Dylan Floro. Lopez continued to struggle in Miami to the point where the club designated him for assignment, leading him to return to the Orioles. His return to Baltimore saw his 2023 struggles continue, and he ended the season with a 5.95 ERA and 5.76 FIP in 61 appearances.

While Lopez’s huge success with the Orioles last season will surely pique the interest of clubs, his struggles this season figure to give even the most intrigued clubs some level of pause. It’s certainly possible he’ll be limited to minor league offers this offseason and have to earn his way back onto a major league roster for 2024 during Spring Training.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

Felix Bautista To Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Signs Through 2025 Season

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Orioles GM Mike Elias announced this afternoon that right-handed closer Felix Bautista is set to undergo Tommy John surgery in early October. Elias also announced that the club and Bautista had agreed upon a guaranteed, two-year contract that runs through the 2025 campaign. Bautista won’t pitch during the 2024 campaign, and is expected back in time for Spring Training 2025.

Bautista, 28, made his big league debut in 2022 as a member of the Baltimore bullpen and almost immediately became one of the club’s most important arms, with a 2.19 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 65 2/3 innings for the club last year as the Orioles surged to a surprising 83-79 season. The right-hander took another leap forward in his sophomore season to become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball during the 2023 campaign. In 61 innings of work this season, Bautista posted an unbelievable 46.4% strikeout rate that lead all relievers while also leading the pack in FIP (1.88), xFIP (2.30), and SIERA (2.06). Bautista’s sterling 1.48 ERA trailed only four relievers in the majors, and the right-hander figured to be a key part of the Orioles’ first postseason push since 2016.

Unfortunately, those plans went awry in late August when the club announced that Bautista was headed to the injured list with “some degree” of UCL injury. Even at the time, that diagnosis was ominous, given that UCL damage often requires Tommy John surgery. That said, the Orioles left the door open for the 2023 All Star to return to help the club’s playoff push, and the righty began to rehab in hopes of working his way back from the injury. Elias noted at the time that while doctors had indicated Bautista would be able to pitch without causing any further damage to his UCL, a procedure to address the issue would be necessary at some point.

The plan seemed to be going well, at first, as Bautista worked up to 25-pitch side sessions fairly quickly. Ultimately, as relayed by Jake Rill for MLB.com, the right-hander ran out of time to return during the regular season, with just two games left to play on Baltimore’s schedule. That left the Orioles to decide to shut him down for the year, preferring not to activate him during the postseason push without having made lower-leverage appearances first. With Bautista not participating in the postseason, there was little reason to delay the right-hander’s surgery further.

With Bautista not expected to throw a competitive pitch until Spring Training of the 2025, the sides came together on a guaranteed deal that would run through the end of the 2025 season, Bautista’s first year of arbitration eligibility. While the terms of Bautista’s deal with the Orioles have not been disclosed, Elias expressed in comments to reporters (including MASN’s Roch Kubatko) that the deal was a bright spot that should help Bautista focus on the rehab ahead of him.

“I think that’s great, because he can just concentrate on his rehab and getting back on the field. He won’t have any business to attend to in that time,” Elias said. “We did something similar with John Means, and very happy for Félix and for us that that’s out of the way.”

With Bautista officially done for 2023 (and 2024), the Orioles figure to turn to right-handed setup man and fellow All Star Yennier Cano as their primary closer in his absence. Cano has recorded four saves in Bautista’s absence, though he’s struggled to an uncharacteristic 4.76 ERA in 11 1/3 innings of work during that time. Cano’s full-season numbers are much more impressive, as the 29-year-old righty sports a 2.12 ERA and 2.87 FIP in 72 1/3 innings of work with the Orioles this season.

Orioles Designate Jorge Lopez For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that right-hander Jorge Lopez was designated for assignment.  Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann was called up from Triple-A to take Lopez’s spot on the active roster.

Baltimore claimed Lopez off waivers from the Marlins at the start of September, and Lopez posted a 6.10 ERA over 10 1/3 innings of work in the orange-and-black.  While Lopez had a 28% strikeout rate and a 4.0% walk rate over his brief time with the O’s, he also allowed four home runs, sending his ERA skyrocketing.  Lopez was ineligible for postseason play since he was acquired after September 1, and since he was looking like a clear non-tender candidate anyway, the Orioles look to have started his path to free agency a little early.  In all likelihood, Lopez will clear waivers and then be released, unless a team wants to take a quick evaluation before the offseason officially begins.

Lopez has a 5.53 ERA over 478 1/3 innings in the majors, appearing with five different teams over an eight-season career that began in 2015.  The clear highlight of Lopez’s career came during his first stint with the Orioles, when his exceptional first-half performance earned him a spot on the 2022 All-Star team.  The O’s were in postseason contention at last year’s trade deadline, but the team opted to sell high on Lopez by dealing him to the Twins for a four-player package that included Yennier Cano (an All-Star himself in 2023) and left-hander Cade Povich, arguably Baltimore’s top current pitching prospect.

It was a wise move on the Orioles’ part, as Lopez immediately started to regress in Minnesota.  Those struggles deepened in 2023, as Lopez posted a 6.12 ERA over 57 1/3 combined innings with the Twins, Marlins, and Orioles.  Minnesota dealt Lopez to Miami at the trade deadline for Dylan Floro in something of a mutual change-of-scenery deal for both relievers, though neither got on track on a new team. (By coincidence, the Twins just released Floro yesterday.)

Lopez earned $3.625MM in 2023, and would be in line for some kind of minimal raise in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility.  The 30-year-old may have to settle for a minor league deal this winter, in the wake of such a disappointing season.

Details From Orioles’ Stadium Agreement

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After yesterday’s announcement by the Orioles and Maryland Governor Wes Moore indicated that Moore and Orioles chairman John Angelos had reached a deal to keep the Orioles at Camden Yards for another 30 years, the details of the agreement released today paint a less certain picture of the agreement. As noted by Jeff Barker of The Baltimore Sun, the agreement isn’t a new lease. Rather, it’s a “memorandum of understanding” that the Orioles will remain at Camden Yards for the next 30 years, with Barker adding that the agreement is legally non-binding.

Per Barker, Governor Moore’s office indicated that, in addition to the long-term lease not yet being complete, an extension of the current lease “for at least a year or two” may be necessary because the sides have not yet agreed upon the deal’s final terms. As the Orioles note in their press release, the memorandum includes a 99-year agreement that gives the Orioles to invest private capital into developing the area around Camden Yards, including the warehouse and Camden Station. Barker adds that the Orioles figure to pay $94MM to the state over the length of the agreement.

Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner notes that the terms of the memorandum, which he describes as “an agreement on some issues and a promise to continue working toward a long-term lease,” stipulate that the Orioles would no longer pay rent to use the ballpark, and in exchange would take over the costs of upkeep for the stadium, which are currently the responsibility of the state of Maryland. Kostka adds that the sides still expect to have a lease signed before the current deal expires on December 31, though many of the details of the agreement are still being worked out, including oversight of the aforementioned development prospect, which will include both the Maryland Stadium Authority and the Orioles.

Today’s announcement that no lease has been signed is something of a surprise, given the club’s announcement of a deal during last night’s win over the Red Sox that saw the Orioles clinch their first AL East title since 2014. That being said, the memorandum signed by both sides of the negotiations represents what should be an important milestone toward getting a deal completed in advance of the club’s current lease expiring at the end of the 2023 calendar year. The state of Maryland, Angelos, and MLB commissioner Rob Manfred have all routinely emphasized that there is no risk of the Orioles departing Baltimore, even as negotiations regarding the club’s lease at Camden Yards have dragged towards the eleventh hour of the current deal.

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