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Looking At The Brewers’ Rotation Depth Options

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The Brewers have won the National League Central two years in a row and three of the last four. They will be looking to defend that title in 2025 but might face a steeper challenge than in years past. The Cubs have had an aggressive offseason, adding Kyle Tucker, Matthew Boyd, Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier and more. The Reds added Brady Singer, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays and will be getting several players back from injury. The Pirates have had a quiet winter but have a rotation loaded with young talent, fronted by Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. The Cardinals planned to do a teardown but ended up standing pat, so they’re going into the year with a very similar roster to the one that finished above .500 last year.

Milwaukee hasn’t done a lot to remake its roster relative to last year. They have added Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin but lost Willy Adames, Devin Williams and others. Whether the team is better or worse than last year is debatable.

The rotation wasn’t a strength in 2024. Their starters put up a collective 4.09 earned run average, putting them 17th out of the 30 teams in the league. Their bullpen was one of the best, however. Their relievers had a collective ERA of 3.11, second only to the Guardians, which helped the team cruise to that division title. That was despite Williams being injured for much of the year.

Going into 2025, the rotation looks like it could be in a similar situation overall, though with some personnel changes. Of the seven players that made at least nine starts for the club last year, four of them are gone. Frankie Montas and Joe Ross hit free agency at season’s end, the former by declining a mutual option. Bryse Wilson was outrighted and Colin Rea had a club option turned down, so they also hit the open market as well.

Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers and Aaron Civale are the three holdovers. Cortes was brought in from the Yankees as part of the Williams trade. In an interview this week with Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, manager Pat Murphy confirmed that those four make up his rotation core to start the season. Brandon Woodruff, who missed 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery, will be in there at some point but probably won’t be ready by Opening Day.

“I would think those four guys are [penciled in],” Murphy said, “and you can put Woody in there, too. But you can’t have him ready to start the season; he probably won’t be. But I think it’s pretty safe to say that those five guys are starters that, when healthy, are going to get opportunities.”

Taking things easy with Woodruff makes sense after his lost season, but that means the club will likely have to reach into its depth. Perhaps that will only be for a short time, but injuries are inevitable over the course of a season. For the long term, the need will be even greater. Civale and Cortes are both slated to be free agents after the upcoming season. Woodruff will certainly join them, as his deal has a $20MM mutual option for 2026 with a $10MM buyout. That was basically designed so that he would re-sign but with the club able to kick most of the payment down the line until the end of 2025. Peralta can be retained for 2026 via an affordable $8MM club option but is slated for free agency after that.

That means Myers is the only guy slated to still be on the roster when November of 2026 rolls around. Even he is not a lock to keep a spot going forward, as his strong 2024 season came after several years of poor minor league numbers. In short, the long-term rotation is wide open. Can the Brewers fill some of that in with guys already in the system? Let’s take a look at some of the options.

Aaron Ashby

Ashby, 27 in May, seemed like a potential rotation building block a few years ago. He tossed 139 innings in a swing role over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. His 4.47 ERA wasn’t especially impressive but his 27.1% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 57.8% ground ball rate seemed like a solid recipe for success.

The Brewers were intrigued enough to make a bet on the lefty, signing him to a five-year deal during the 2022 campaign which guaranteed him $20.5MM and also came with club options for 2028 and 2029.

Unfortunately, shoulder problems got in the way. Arthroscopic surgery wiped out his 2023 season. He returned last year and was kept mostly in a relief role, but with some good results. Down the stretch, he tossed 19 2/3 innings over 12 appearances with a 1.37 ERA, 36.8% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 51.1% ground ball rate.

With those numbers, it might be tempting to keep him in a bullpen role, but the club seems interested in stretching him out. Back in November, Murphy said the club still hopes to see what Ashby can do as a starter. He still has one option year and can be sent to the minors if the club would like.

DL Hall

Hall, 26, was a first-round pick of the Orioles in 2017 and went on to be a top 100 prospect. He came to the Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes trade last offseason. He hasn’t lived up to that prospect hype just yet.

He has pitched in the past three seasons but logged only 76 innings. His 4.74 ERA doesn’t impress but his 25.1% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 46.5% ground ball rate make for a decent mixture. A left knee sprain hobbled him last year, limiting him to just 84 frames between the majors and minors. In 2022 and 2023, the Orioles shuttled him between the majors and the minors, as well as moving him between starting to relieving. He tossed 98 innings in 2022 between the majors and minors, then 71 1/3 in 2023. His minor league work has generally featured big strikeout numbers but also plenty of walks.

Hall is still a work in progress but the Brewers probably don’t want to give up on him, given the upside here. Like Ashby, he has one option year remaining, so pitching out of the Triple-A rotation isn’t off the table. He has one year and 74 days of service time, meaning he is currently slated for five years of club control, though a lengthy optional assignment could push that to six. Either way, he’s cheap and controllable for a long time to come.

Robert Gasser

Gasser, 26 in May, won’t be an option in the short term but is definitely part of the long-term plans. A former top 100 prospect, he debuted with a splash last year by posting a 2.57 ERA in his first five big league starts. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in June, wiping out the second half of his 2024. He’s now slated to miss most or perhaps all of 2025. He has less than a year of service time at the moment and the Brewers therefore have six years of club control over him.

Jacob Misiorowski

Misiorowski, 23 in April, is not yet on the 40-man roster but is one of the top pitching prospects in the league. He reached as high as Triple-A last year, though the club eased off his workload by having him pitch shorter stints out of the bullpen to finish the year. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he tossed 97 1/3 innings on the year with a 3.33 ERA. He struck out 30.5% of hitters and got grounders at a 45.8% clip but also gave out walks 14.4% of the time. Though the club eased off the gas, that innings total is still his personal high thus far.

The righty is clearly going to factor into the mix at some point, but there’s clearly still some development going on. 2025 will likely be about reining in the control and getting the workload beyond the 100-inning mark, but it’s entirely possible that he throws some big league innings this year.

Elvin Rodríguez

Rodríguez, 27 in March, is a wild card at the moment. He spent 2024 in a multi-inning role for the Yakult Swallows in Japan. He logged 45 innings over 32 appearances with a 1.80 ERA, 24% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. Whether the Brewers view him more as a starter or a reliever is unknown.

Carlos Rodríguez

Rodríguez, 23, made a limited MLB debut last year. He tossed 12 1/3 innings over three starts with a 7.30 ERA. Over the past three years, he has logged 365 2/3 innings on the farm with a 3.49 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate. Most prospect evaluators consider him a capable back-end starter but he’s still young and has a couple of options remaining, so he’ll likely be in the Triple-A rotation until circumstances change.

Chad Patrick/Logan Henderson

These two were each just added to the 40-man roster in November, to keep them out of the Rule 5 draft. Henderson, 23, is considered more of a legit prospect but he is still a question mark. Elbow surgery limited him to just 13 2/3 innings in 2022. He got that up to 78 2/3 in 2023 and then 81 1/3 last year. His minor league numbers are strong overall, with a 3.11 ERA, 34.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. However, he mostly gets by with a fastball/changeup mix that leads some to predict he’ll end up in the bullpen. Patrick is considered more of a depth/spot starter.

Bruce Zimmermann/Thomas Pannone/Easton McGee

These three signed minor league deals with the club this offseason. They all have a bit of major league experience and give the club some non-roster depth. Zimmermann has a 5.57 ERA in 158 1/3 innings and Pannone a 5.46 ERA in 118 2/3 innings, while McGee hasn’t allowed a run in his 9 2/3 innings.

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Though the Woodruff timeline creates some uncertainty, there are plenty of intriguing options here for the short term. But as mentioned, the Brewers will likely see three starters departing at the end of the year and a fourth after 2026. Ideally, guys like Ashby, Hall, Misiorowski and Gasser would step up take those spots, because the club usually doesn’t have a lot of spending power for bringing in free agents. That makes 2025 a key season in Milwaukee, since their future rotation plans are completely in flux.

Brewers, Bruce Zimmermann Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers have agreed to a minor league deal with left-hander Bruce Zimmermann, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The Ballengee client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this coming spring.

Zimmermann, 29, has appeared in parts of four seasons. All four of those came with the Baltimore native’s hometown club. From 2020-23, he pitched 158 1/3 frames for the Orioles, mostly out of the rotation, posting a 5.57 ERA along the way. He regularly showed plus command (career 5.2% walk rate), but Zimmermann’s 89-91 mph fastball proved too hittable and led to troubles keeping the ball in the park (2.27 HR/9).

While Zimmermann’s big league results have clearly been sub-par, he’s logged a more palatable 4.20 ERA in 306 1/3 innings across parts of five Triple-A seasons. Despite the lack of velocity, he’s punched out a solid 22.8% of his opponent at that level and coupled that with a similarly sound 8% walk rate. The 2024 season was the first since 2019 in which Zimmermann did not appear in the majors. He pitched 80 minor league innings with a 4.16 ERA on the year, splitting his time between the rotation and bullpen.

Zimmermann will give the Brewers some more affordable rotation depth behind the projected starting five of Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale and Tobias Myers. Southpaws Aaron Ashby and DL Hall are both on the 40-man roster and could get looks in the ’pen or as starters.

Other rotation candidates include Carlos Rodriguez, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick, though the latter two have yet to actually make their MLB debuts. Top pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski had a nice season between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and 2022 second-rounder should be in line for his MLB debut at some point during the 2025 campaign. Milwaukee has been on the hunt for extra rotation stability this offseason but doesn’t have much money to work with as they work toward that goal.

The Brewers picked up a plug-and-play mid-rotation arm, Cortes, in the trade sending closer Devin Williams to the Yankees, but they’re still likely to be in the mix for some more low-cost arms.

Orioles Outright Bruce Zimmermann

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that left-hander Bruce Zimmermann has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A. The 29-year-old was designated for assignment earlier this week amid a flurry of roster moves that saw recently-acquired southpaw Trevor Rogers optioned to the minor leagues.

Zimmermann was selected by the Braves in the fifth round of the 2017 draft but was traded to the Orioles during the summer of 2018 as part of the package that brought Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to Atlanta. The lefty reached the Triple-A level the following year after dominating to the tune of a 2.58 ERA in 101 1/3 innings of work at Double-A earlier in the year, and that stint at the highest level of the minors teed him up for his big league debut with Baltimore during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. That debut didn’t go quite as well as Zimmermann and the Orioles were surely hoping for, however, as he struggled badly with a 7.71 ERA in his seven-inning cup of coffee that year.

The lefty enjoyed a larger role with the Orioles over the next two seasons as he stepped into a rotation role with the club, though he was limited to about half of a full season’s workload in both years by injuries and occasional trips to Triple-A. Zimmermann’s results were about what you’d expect from a part-time starter for a club in the midst of a lengthy rebuild, as he struggled to a 5.54 ERA that was 25% worse than league average with a 5.74 FIP across a combined 138 innings of work in those years.

Zimmermann was removed from the rotation entering the 2023 campaign and spent most of the campaign at the Triple-A level, although he did make a brief appearance in the big leagues as a multi-inning reliever that summer. He performed passably in the new role, with a below-average 4.73 ERA in his 13 1/3 innings of work but a solid 23% strikeout rate that stood as a considerable step up from his lackluster 17.4% strikeout rate during his time as a starter. The lefty has not yet appeared in the big leagues in 2024 after undergoing core muscle surgery last October, although he has made it back to the minor leagues where he’s pitched to a middling 4.64 ERA in 66 innings of work at the Triple-A level with a somewhat concerning 8.5% walk rate that’s quite a bit higher than the 5.2% clip he’s posted in the big leagues to this point in his career.

Now that Zimmermann is off the 40-man roster, he figures to remain with with Orioles as non-roster depth through the end of the season, at which point he’ll have the opportunity to elect free agency if he hasn’t been added back to the 40-man by then. The lefty is currently in his final option year, meaning that Baltimore would have the opportunity to shuttle him between Triple-A and the majors as needed down the stretch if they were to add him back to the roster at some point.

Orioles Option Trevor Rogers, Designate Bruce Zimmermann

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The Orioles announced a series of roster moves today. Infielder Emmanuel Rivera, recently claimed off waivers, has been added to the roster. They also selected the contract of right-hander Matt Bowman and recalled lefty Nick Vespi. To open spots for those three, they optioned left-hander Trevor Rogers, right-hander Colin Selby and infielder Liván Soto to Triple-A Norfolk. To open a 40-man spot for Bowman, lefty Bruce Zimmermann has been designated for assignment.

Just over three weeks ago, the Orioles acquired Rogers from the Marlins in a pre-deadline trade, sending youngsters Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to Miami. The O’s have been having a strong season overall but keeping the rotation intact has been a challenge. All three of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells required surgery to address their respective ulnar collateral ligaments in their elbows earlier this year. To bolster the group, they added both Zach Eflin and Rogers prior to the deadline.

It was a buy-low situation with Rogers, who had posted a 2.64 earned run average with the Marlins in 2021 but struggled since. He dealt with various injuries in 2022 and finished that year with a 5.47 ERA. In 2023, he was only able to make four starts due to a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right lat.

Here in 2024, he was healthy enough to stay on the mound, making 21 starts for the Fish prior to the deal. His velocity was down but the results were passable, as he had a 4.53 ERA in those 21 outings. A few days after the deal, the lefty said he had already received more analytical information relating to his pitch mix and mechanics than during his entire time with the Marlins, per Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner on X. Perhaps the O’s felt there was a path to getting Rogers back to his 2021 form via those analytics, or simply him getting healthier as he moved further away from his injuries.

It has not gone to plan so far, as Rogers hasn’t fared well in his first four starts with the O’s. He has allowed 15 earned runs in 19 innings, leading to a 7.11 ERA. His 13.3% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are both well below league average and nowhere near his previous work.

It seems the O’s have decided that a reset in Triple-A is in order. Perhaps that will give him a chance to work on their suggested tweaks in a lower-stakes environment. He can still be retained via arbitration for two more seasons after this one, so they have some time to figure out a path forward. This isn’t a service time manipulation situation, as he already crossed four years of service time earlier this year.

Still, it’s obviously less than ideal for the club to be subtracting one of its key deadline pickups in the middle of a playoff race. The O’s are still in comfortable position with a 74-54 record, just half a game behind the Yankees in the East and currently possessing the top Wild Card spot. But the Royals and Twins are just 2.5 games back and the Red Sox trail the O’s by only six games, so nothing is set in stone with more than a month left to play.

The rotation continues to be an issue as now both Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez are on the injured list, Eflin due to some shoulder discomfort and Rodriguez due to a lat strain. With Rogers now intentionally removed from the mix, the rotation is now down to Corbin Burnes, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, Cole Irvin and Cade Povich. Burnes is great but there are plenty of questions with the others. Kremer and Irvin are essentially back-end guys, with the latter having been passed through waivers a few weeks ago, recently being added back to the roster. Suárez keeps putting up good numbers but is a 34-year-old journeyman who is in the majors for the first time since 2017. Povich has just nine major league starts and a 5.77 ERA in those.

Ideally, the club will be hoping to get Rodriguez and Eflin back for the end of the regular season and then the playoffs as well, but they will have to try to get by with this group for now. Perhaps Rogers can also work his way back into the mix with some quick adjustments in the minors, but he can’t be recalled for the next 15 days unless replacing someone going on the injured list.

Bowman, 33, was signed to a minor league deal a week ago. That pact contained an upward mobility clause today and an opt-out next week. It seems the O’s didn’t want him to get away or simply wanted to add some a fresh arm to their bullpen, so he’s been added to their roster today.

As soon as he gets into a game for the O’s, it will be his fourth club of the year, as he’s already suited up for the Twins, Diamondbacks and Mariners. Since he’s out of options, he’s continually been squeezed out of his opportunities. Whenever he has cleared waivers, he has elected free agency and signed a new deal with fresh opt-outs, seemingly having a strong preference for flexibility.

While bouncing around, he has thrown 15 major league innings with a 5.40 ERA, 15.2% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 46.8% ground ball rate. But he’s also thrown 33 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 1.87 ERA, 31.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and grounders on more than half of the balls in play he’s allowed.

That minor league performance has seemingly led to plenty of interest around the league, with Baltimore being his latest stop. If he can perform like that at the major league level, he could be a nice asset for a Baltimore bullpen that hasn’t been strong this year. Their relief corps has a collective 4.18 ERA, putting them in the bottom third of the league. If things click, he can be retained beyond this season via arbitration, but based on the way his year has gone, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bouncing around again soon.

Zimmermann, 29, has been in the Orioles’ organization for more than six years now. He came over from Atlanta in the July 2018 trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day the other way. He appeared in 38 games over the 2020-23 seasons, logging 158 1/3 innings with a 5.57 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 41.1% ground ball rate.

He’s been on optional assignment for all of 2024 so far, having tossed 69 1/3 innings in the minors with a 4.41 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. With the trade deadline now passed, the O’s will have to put Zimmermann on waivers in the coming days.

This is his final option year, so he’ll be out of options next year. A claiming club could potentially stash him in the minors for the rest of this season but he would need an active roster spot by next year. He has less than two years of service time, so any claiming club could control him for five seasons beyond this one. If he were to pass through outright waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the O’s in a non-roster capacity.

Orioles Notes: Trade Market, Urias, Zimmermann, Akin, Hall

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Orioles fans have grown increasingly frustrated with a listless offseason on the heels of last year’s division title and quick playoff exit. The O’s entered the offseason with a wide-open payroll outlook and deep farm system, ostensibly setting the stage for either a major free-agent pickup and/or a splashy trade to address the starting pitching. Neither has transpired to this point, although general manager Mike Elias insists it’s not due to a lack of effort on his behalf. The Orioles are “probably being as aggressive as any team out there” on the trade market, Elias told reporters over the weekend (link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner).

Options on the trade market this offseason have been few and far between — particularly if, as one would expect, the O’s are reluctant to part with their glut of top-ranked, near-MLB-ready infield and outfield prospects. Dylan Cease has long been connected to the O’s, but many have begun to express doubt that anyone will meet the White Sox’ asking price before the offseason is up. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken openly about his aversion to trading young starters like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. The Marlins are at least listening on a handful of starters (Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera among them), but the ask figures to be similarly steep there, as each has at least three seasons of control remaining.

The Orioles, meanwhile, are rife with young big league-caliber talents. Gunnar Henderson is locked in on the left side of the infield — likely as the long-term third baseman. Jackson Holliday, the former No. 1 overall pick who’s currently ranked as baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect, could debut as the team’s long-term shortstop this year at just 20 years old. Middle infielders Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby and Joey Ortiz have all been ranked among the game’s 100 best prospects within the past year. Ditto corner infielder Coby Mayo, who could be pushed across the diamond to first base, where the Orioles also have Ryan Mountcastle and former No. 2 overall pick Heston Kjerstad as options. Kjerstad can also play the outfield corners, while still yet another top prospect, outfielder Colton Cowser, is a deft center fielder.

Baltimore’s veritable embarrassment of riches on the prospect front has yet to lead to a trade, however. Fans might quibble with whether Elias is truly being as aggressive as he indicates, based on that lack of a move, but the top-ranking O’s baseball ops exec also exercised caution on the trade front.

“You can look back and teams make aggressive trades, and it can really set the franchise back if the guy shows up and he gets hurt, or if you trade guys and you miss out on their long careers,” Elias said, noting that there are just such examples in Orioles history.

Elias didn’t mention any specific examples, though as with any franchise, they’ve had their share of “ones who got away” (my words, not his). Eduardo Rodriguez and Jake Arrieta come to mind as one such pair (under prior leadership, before Elias was hired), while the Orioles’ acquisition of Adam Jones in exchange for Erik Bedard (also under the former front office regime) is perhaps the prime example of Baltimore being on the more favorable side of that proverbial coin.

Of course, the enviable stock of position-player depth the Orioles have cultivated under Elias could also be a catalyst for smaller-scale trades. The team might balk at the notion of trading someone of Westburg’s ilk, but the sheer volume of MLB-ready infielders could make current bench options like Ramon Urias available. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko suggested as much on Monday, noting that a roster including each of Urias, Ortiz and Holliday would have some redundancy and could lead to Urias being squeezed out — though that scenario is framed in mostly speculative fashion. There’s no indication the Orioles are shopping Urias, but it stands to reason that other infield-needy clubs would have interest.

The 29-year-old Urias, who’s earning $2.1MM in 2024 and is under club control through 2026, has given the Orioles above-average offense and solid defense for much of the past three seasons. He’s a career .264/.330/.404 hitter (107 wRC+) who can handle any of second base, shortstop or third base.

Urias had plus defensive grades at the hot corner, in 2022 in particular, but has broadly rated as a capable defender at any of the three spots. The O’s also gave him 63 innings at first base in 2023. Though he bats right-handed, Urias has far better career numbers against righties (.278/.342/.416) than lefties (.237/.306/.380). That’s not ideal for a team seeking a righty bat to pair with a lefty around the infield, but a club that’s just looking for general infield help overall could well see its interest piqued by an affordable and versatile option like Urias. He alone wouldn’t fetch the Orioles the rotation upgrade they seek, but he could either be dealt as part of a package or could perhaps simply net the O’s some modest help for the farm system to help replenish depth after surrendering some prospects in a larger-scale deal.

On the depth front, the O’s did get some good news in recent weeks. Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann tells MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski that he’s in Florida for early workouts and expects to be a “full go” when spring training opens. Zimmermann underwent core muscle surgery in mid-October. He pitched to a 4.42 ERA in 21 Triple-A starts last season and has a lifetime 4.15 ERA in 229 2/3 innings at that level. He’s struggled to a 5.57 mark in 158 1/3 big league frames, but Zimmermann has a minor league option remaining and gives the O’s some experienced depth if injuries create an opening in the rotation.

Similarly, reliever Keegan Akin told Melewski and others that he’s “right on track” for spring training after missing the better part of three months last summer due to back troubles. Akin attempted to come back multiple times but experienced continued back issues each time. He’s since had the time to rest and rehab his way to full strength. The southpaw clearly wasn’t right in ’23, pitching to a 6.85 ERA in 23 1/3 innings, but he was a key bullpen member in 2022 when he piled up 81 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 49.3% ground-ball rate.

Assuming he’s healthy, Akin will give the O’s yet another southpaw option in the ’pen. Danny Coulombe and Cionel Perez are locked into spots after each avoided arbitration over the past week, and 25-year-old DL Hall seems likely to join them — if the Orioles don’t give him another look in the rotation. That decision could hinge on any future acquisitions; Elias said on Friday that the Orioles still view Hall as a starter in the long-term but was less clear about the southpaw’s role in the shorter term (X link via Kostka). Hall, a 2017 first-rounder and former top prospect, pitched to a 3.26 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates in 19 1/3 innings out of the bullpen in 2023.

Bruce Zimmermann Undergoes Core Muscle Surgery

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The Orioles announced to reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, that left-hander Bruce Zimmermann underwent core muscle surgery today. He is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Zimmermann, 29 in February, has pitched for the O’s in each of the past four seasons, tossing 158 1/3 innings with a 5.57 earned run average. In 2023, he spent most of the season on optional assignment. He made just seven appearances for the big league club, with an ERA of 4.73 in those.

He made 21 starts at the Triple-A level with a 4.42 ERA in 99 2/3 innings. He struck out 24.6% of opponents at that level, walked 8.7% of them and got grounders at a 45% rate. If not for a .377 batting average on balls in play and 67.1% strand rate, his results likely would have been better, which is why his FIP was over a run better than his ERA at 3.25.

The O’s had an excellent season in 2023 but starting pitching still stands out as a target area. Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty are both set to become free agents in a couple of weeks, leaving the O’s with Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer in three rotation spots. John Means finished the season with an elbow injury but would be in there if healthy next year. Candidates for rounding out the group include Tyler Wells, DL Hall and Cole Irvin, though Irvin will be out of options next year. Assuming Zimmermann is recovered by the spring as expected, he would be in that mix as well.

Orioles Designate Jorge Lopez For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that right-hander Jorge Lopez was designated for assignment.  Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann was called up from Triple-A to take Lopez’s spot on the active roster.

Baltimore claimed Lopez off waivers from the Marlins at the start of September, and Lopez posted a 6.10 ERA over 10 1/3 innings of work in the orange-and-black.  While Lopez had a 28% strikeout rate and a 4.0% walk rate over his brief time with the O’s, he also allowed four home runs, sending his ERA skyrocketing.  Lopez was ineligible for postseason play since he was acquired after September 1, and since he was looking like a clear non-tender candidate anyway, the Orioles look to have started his path to free agency a little early.  In all likelihood, Lopez will clear waivers and then be released, unless a team wants to take a quick evaluation before the offseason officially begins.

Lopez has a 5.53 ERA over 478 1/3 innings in the majors, appearing with five different teams over an eight-season career that began in 2015.  The clear highlight of Lopez’s career came during his first stint with the Orioles, when his exceptional first-half performance earned him a spot on the 2022 All-Star team.  The O’s were in postseason contention at last year’s trade deadline, but the team opted to sell high on Lopez by dealing him to the Twins for a four-player package that included Yennier Cano (an All-Star himself in 2023) and left-hander Cade Povich, arguably Baltimore’s top current pitching prospect.

It was a wise move on the Orioles’ part, as Lopez immediately started to regress in Minnesota.  Those struggles deepened in 2023, as Lopez posted a 6.12 ERA over 57 1/3 combined innings with the Twins, Marlins, and Orioles.  Minnesota dealt Lopez to Miami at the trade deadline for Dylan Floro in something of a mutual change-of-scenery deal for both relievers, though neither got on track on a new team. (By coincidence, the Twins just released Floro yesterday.)

Lopez earned $3.625MM in 2023, and would be in line for some kind of minimal raise in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility.  The 30-year-old may have to settle for a minor league deal this winter, in the wake of such a disappointing season.

Orioles Select Chris Vallimont, Mychal Givens Moved To 60-Day IL

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The Orioles have selected the contract of right-hander Chris Vallimont from Triple-A.  In corresponding moves, left-hander Bruce Zimmermann was optioned to Triple-A, while Mychal Givens was moved to the 60-day injured list to create space on the 40-man roster.

Givens signed a one-year, $5MM free agent deal with Baltimore during the offseason, returning to the O’s after pitching with the team from 2015-20.  However, the comeback has still barely begun, as Givens has been limited to four innings over six appearances (and an 11.25 ERA) due to injuries.  Some inflammation in Givens’ left knee arose during Spring Training, which led to an IL placement on Opening Day and delayed his season debut until May 21.  Givens then went back on the 15-day IL on June 1 due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder, and the shift to the 60-day IL means that he won’t be eligible to return until August at the earliest.

While Givens had started a rehab assignment, he was scratched from what would’ve been his fifth outing last week, and underwent further examination.  Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said the team wasn’t overly concerned with the situation, but obviously Givens has been set back enough that he might need to entirely restart his rehab work, thus extending his time on the IL.

Vallimont is now on the verge of making his MLB debut after five pro seasons.  The righty was a fifth-round pick for the Marlins in the 2018 draft, and was traded to the Twins in 2019 before Baltimore claimed him off waivers from Minnesota in May 2022.

The results have been mixed at best for Vaillmont in the upper minors, as he has a 6.07 ERA over 123 career innings at Double-A and a 5.22 ERA in 129 1/3 frames of Triple-A ball.  A starter for much of his career, the Orioles have used him as a starter in eight games in Norfolk and as a long reliever on six other occasions.  Since the Orioles’ bullpen has seen a lot of work over the team’s last two games, Vaillmont’s selection is likely a way to get a fresh arm into the relief corps.  After Thursday’s off-day, the O’s play every day until the All-Star break, so Vaillmont might get some chances to chew up any stray innings and turn some heads in his first stint in the big leagues.

Orioles Reinstate Cedric Mullins From 10-Day IL

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The Orioles have reinstated outfielder Cedric Mullins from the 10-day injured list.  Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann was also called up from Triple-A, while righty Logan Gillaspie and utilityman Josh Lester were optioned to Triple-A in corresponding moves.

Mullins missed just short of four weeks recovering from a right groin strain suffered when he was trying to beat out a grounder to first base.  Fortunately, Mullins had a pretty straightforward recovery process that included three minor league rehab games, and he’ll now get back into action with an impressive 45-29 Orioles team.

The outfielder has been a big part of that success, hitting .263/.356/.479 with eight homers over 224 plate appearances this season.  A .319 xwOBA (well under his .362 wOBA) does hint at regression, especially since Mullins’ hard-contact rate is below average, but Mullins has traditionally outperformed his xwOBA over the last few seasons.  His 12.5% walk rate is also a career best, adding a new dimension to Mullins’ work at the plate.

Despite losing Mullins for four weeks and Ryan Mountcastle for the last two weeks, the Orioles have kept winning even without these two regulars in the lineup.  In replacing Mullins, the O’s signed veteran Aaron Hicks, who has experienced a resurgence since his arrival in Baltimore.  The Yankees released Hicks in late May to end his eight-season run in the Bronx, marked mostly in recent years by injuries and a severe lack of production.  However, Hicks has rebounded to the change of scenery, hitting .310/.412/.552 over his 68 PA in an Orioles uniform.

While Mullins isn’t in danger of being Wally Pipp’ed out of the center field job, Hicks’ production will certainly merit more playing time, giving the O’s a nice problem to have in figuring out how to juggle their several quality position players.  Hicks could take some at-bats away from Anthony Santander in right field and the DH spot is somewhat available, though the Orioles like to give Adley Rutschman plenty of DH time in order to keep him fresh and to keep his bat in the lineup.

Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options

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The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.

In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.

Locks

Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.

The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.

Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.

Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.

There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.

Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022

Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.

Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.

Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.

Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.

Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.

The Top Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.

DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).

Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.

Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.

Other options on the 40-man

Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.

Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.

Recovering from injury

John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.

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As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.

It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.

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