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Free Agent Notes: Marte, Castellanos, Lorenzen, Canha

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Starling Marte is the clear top option in this winter’s free agent center field class. Unsurprisingly, early interest seems to be robust, as Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports (Twitter links) that both the Marlins and Mets have expressed interest in the 33-year-old. Those NL East clubs join the Yankees and division-rival Phillies as known entrants in his market. There are no doubt other clubs who have or will express interest in Marte, who’s coming off a stellar .308/.381/.456 showing between Miami and the A’s.

Miami’s early interest is eyebrow-raising, since he and the Marlins couldn’t agree to terms during midseason extension negotiations this summer. Reports suggested the Fish balked at offering a fourth guaranteed year a few months back, and going to that length again figures to be necessary to land Marte’s services now that he can field offers from all 30 clubs. It’s not as if his stock tanked after the deal, as Marte continued to be an offensive force (.312/.355/.462 with 25 stolen bases in just 56 games) for Oakland down the stretch. MLBTR projects he’ll ultimately land a four-year deal worth $80MM, a figure that would come in quite a bit higher than the money Marte reportedly targeted in original extension talks.

The Mets, meanwhile, are still trying to finalize the structure of their front office. That could pose a challenge for them in making any impactful moves early in the winter, but whomever the Mets hire to lead baseball operations is expected to look for some form of outfield help. Michael Conforto has already rejected New York’s qualifying offer, and his potential departure would leave a vacancy in the grass in Flushing. A Marte pursuit would be one way to replace Conforto, with current center fielder Brandon Nimmo probably sliding over to right field were a deal to get done.

Some news on a few more free agents:

  • Nick Castellanos has already rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer, little more than a formality after he opted out of the remaining two years on his contract. The 29-year-old wouldn’t close the door on a return to Cincinnati, though, telling reporters (including Adam Baum of the Cincinnati Enquirer) he’d listen to any offers from the Reds. “Of course I would. Why wouldn’t I,” Castellanos asked rhetorically. “I feel like there’s still a lot of valuable pieces that are very good to win with. Jonathan India … Jesse Winker is coming into his own, figuring out who he is, figuring out what kind of father he wants to be, he’s doing a great job at that. Joey Votto just reinvented himself. We still have pitching. We have pieces. Why wouldn’t I entertain it?” Regardless of Castellanos’ amenability, a Reds’ return seems highly unlikely. Cincinnati has kicked off the offseason by parting ways with two veteran contributors (Tucker Barnhart and Wade Miley) for little more than financial relief, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken of “(aligning) our payroll to our resources.” It’d be nothing short of shocking if Cincinnati then pivoted to make a serious run at Castellanos, whom MLBTR projects to sign for $115MM over five years.
  • California natives Michael Lorenzen and Mark Canha are both drawing interest from teams on the West Coast, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). Interestingly, Murray hears that at least some teams are willing to consider Lorenzen as a starting pitcher, aligning with the 29-year-old’s hopes for a rotation job. Lorenzen broke into the majors as a starter, but he’s started just five of his 268 appearances with the Reds since the beginning of the 2016 campaign. He’s had success in a multi-inning relief capacity, though, and Lorenz’s five-pitch repertoire could help him navigate an order multiple times. Canha, who has spent his entire major league career with his hometown A’s, hits the open market on the heels of four straight above-average offensive seasons, by measure of wRC+. Entering his age-33 season, the productive outfielder will probably be limited to short-term deals, which could make him a target of low and high payroll clubs alike.

Mets Still Targeting David Stearns After His Brewers Contract Ends

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1:15PM: Stearns is “happily employed” with the Brewers, he told MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Stearns also declined to clarify how many years or possible years may remain on his Brewers contract.

8:14AM: The Mets have twice been denied in their attempts to interview David Stearns about their president of baseball operations job, as Brewers owner Mark Attanasio declined the Mets’ requests both last season and earlier this offseason.  However, the Mets are seemingly prepared to simply wait the Brewers out, as The Athletic’s Tim Britton, Britt Ghiroli, and Ken Rosenthal report that New York will approach Stearns about their front office vacancy next winter, when his contract with the Brewers may or may not be up.

In the interim, the Mets’ search has been focused on assistant general manager types, who would become the club’s GM in 2022.  (Former Nationals AGM Adam Cromie has recently emerged as a favorite for the job.)  Should the Mets’ plan to land Stearns come to fruition, Cromie or whomever ends up in the GM role would then become the ops department’s chief lieutenant to Stearns, who would carry the official PBO title and sit at the top of the Amazins’ decision-making pyramid.

It would make for an unusual dynamic for at least one season in the team’s front office, not that there has been much normalcy associated with the Mets’ very public search to date.  Several potential candidates have already declined interviews with the Mets, quite likely because of the associated uncertainty.  Looking it from the perspective of an assistant GM, if you’re comfortable with your current team, why take the risk of accepting what might be a one-year job, should Stearns (or another incoming boss that you aren’t familiar with) decides that they want their own handpicked GM as their top lieutenant?

Waiting for Stearns also carries its own set of challenges for the Mets.  “Stearns has serious interest in the position,” Britton/Ghiroli/Rosenthal write, which isn’t really surprising given that Stearns grew up as a Mets fan in New York and even interned in the club’s front office in 2008.  It could be that some unofficial back-channel communication may have already taken place between the two sides, though Stearns’ feelings about the job could change if and when he has a formal interview with team officials.  (It can also be assumed that Attanasio would likely be on the lookout for any sort of early talks of any kind between Stearns and the Mets, should he feel tampering is taking place.)

Stearns has also enjoyed a lot of success in Milwaukee, and could prefer to remain with the Brewers on another contract extension, or perhaps even investigate a potential job opening with another team besides the Brewers or Mets.  Plus, Stearns’ contractual situation is a little unclear.  The Mets reportedly believe Stearns will be available next winter, though reports have suggested some type of vesting option could be in place for Stearns to remain with in Milwaukee through the 2023 season.  If this option does exist and it vests, the Mets would find themselves putting their front office plans on hold for yet another season — assuming Stearns would remain at the top of their list, and another executive didn’t emerge in the interim.

Phillies Interested In Starling Marte, Aaron Loup

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The Phillies have interest in center fielder Starling Marte and reliever Aaron Loup, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links).  Since the outfield and bullpen are the top priorities for the Phils this winter, it isn’t surprising that Marte and Loup have gained the club’s attention.  Among the several teams involved in Loup’s market, Heyman also notes that the Mets are looking into bringing Loup back to Queens for a longer stint after the southpaw dominated out of New York’s bullpen in 2021.

Marte is really the only true full-time center fielder in this year’s free agent class, though Marte’s 2021 numbers would’ve still put him at or near the top of a deeper center field market.  Marte hit .310/.383/.458 with 12 home runs and a league-best 47 stolen bases over 526 combined plate appearances with the Marlins and Athletics, despite missing about five weeks due to a fractured rib.  Marte did benefit from a .369 BABIP, though his excellent speed and baserunning played a big factor in that extra batted-ball “luck.”  His 8.2% walk rate was still below average, though also the best of Marte’s 10 big league seasons.

Reviews were a little mixed on Marte’s glovework, as Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4, though UZR/150 (+1) and Outs Above Average (+4) gave his center field defense positive grades.  As Marte enters his age-33 season, however, he certainly still seems athletic enough to provide some quality help up the middle.

This is all music to the Phillies’ ears, considering the club has Bryce Harper and not much else in its current outfield mix.  Both Andrew McCutchen and Odubel Herrera are free agents, and while Herrera had a pretty modest 2021 season, he was still the best of a revolving door of subpar options for the Phils in center.  Installing Marte in center field and at or near the top of the Philadelphia lineup would fill a couple of major holes for the club.

Signing Marte would represent yet another big expenditure on the Phillies’ books, though president Dave Dombrowski had given some indication (“I don’t find it restrictive“) that ownership has given him some spending flexibility.  With roughly $171.1MM committed to payroll in 2022, the Phillies could afford to give Marte a big contract and still have some significant room under whatever the luxury tax threshold ends up being next season.  Or, the Phils might even be comfortable going over the tax threshold, as owner John Middleton has indicated in the past that he would be okay with paying the tax in the right circumstance.

Loup won’t cost anywhere near Marte’s price range, but after signing a one-year/$3MM deal with the Mets last winter, Loup is in line for a much more significant contract this time around.  The veteran left-hander had one of the better seasons of any reliever in baseball, with a tiny 0.95 ERA over 56 2/3 innings out of New York’s bullpen.  While Loup’s .229 wOBA far outpaced his .272 xwOBA, Loup also had a 50.4% grounder rate to go along with above-average strikeout (26.1%) and walk (7.3%) rates.

Even if Loup pitches closer to his 3.32 SIERA next year, the Mets would certainly still like that kind of production back in their pen, and Loup would be even more of a boost to a Philadelphia relief corps that badly struggled in 2021.  Loup doesn’t much closing experience, so while he isn’t the lockdown ninth-inning answer Dombrowski is looking for, Loup can at least help the Phillies take a lead into the ninth.

Former Nats AGM Adam Cromie Among Candidates For Mets’ GM Vacancy

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WEDNESDAY, 5:08 pm: Jon Morosi of MLB.com also hears that Cromie is the frontrunner to land the position. Alderson told reporters (including Janes) that no decision has been finalized yet, however, and said multiple candidates remain.

WEDNESDAY, 11:10am: Cromie and Cohen met face-to-face Tuesday night, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  According to Sherman, “The expectation was that if that meeting went well that Cromie would be made an offer to be the Mets general manager.”

TUESDAY, 2:48pm: Cromie has a “real shot” to be named the Mets’ next general manager, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The team’s interest in him is “serious,” tweets SNY’s Andy Martino, though he also adds that there are still a few other candidates in the mix.

12:25pm: After weeks of courting high-profile executives to step in as president of baseball operations, the Mets are now focused on hiring a general manager, Sandy Alderson told reporters Tuesday (Twitter links via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News).

It’s an important distinction in terms of title, even if the end result — bringing someone into the organization to oversee baseball operations — is largely the same. Focusing on a general manager rather than a president role further signals that the Mets will be zeroing in on executives who are at the assistant GM level rather than mining other clubs in hopes of prying away an existing GM or president of baseball ops, as they’d previously sought to do. Alderson emphasized that he does not believe the Mets will get to the point where he runs baseball operations himself (Twitter link via Newsday’s Tim Healey) — a role to which he does not wish to return.

Focusing on the AGM ranks broadens the field of possibilities for the Mets, although it also means the Mets may settle on a less-experienced baseball ops leader than originally hoped. That’s not necessarily inevitable, however; there are plenty of former GMs in non-GM roles around the sport. Dodgers senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes, for instance, has been a rumored candidate and previously served as GM of two different NL West clubs (Padres, D-backs).

Alderson declined to put a timeline on the search’s outcome but did note that a managerial hire likely wouldn’t be made until a new baseball operations leader is in place. Alderson’s hope, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets, is that they’ve already spoken to the candidate they’ll eventually hire. As for the struggles in terms of making this hire, Alderson rather candidly acknowledged that there’s been a struggle (video link via SNY).

“In some cases, we haven’t gotten permission [to interview a candidate with another organization],” Alderson said. “In some cases, I think people are comfortable where they are — whether it be a family situation or something professional. And in other cases, I think, admittedly, there’s a reluctance to come to New York — but I think it’s mostly about New York and not about [owner Steve Cohen], or the organization. It’s a big stage, and some people would just prefer to be elsewhere.”

One possible name that has recently emerged is that of former Nationals assistant GM Adam Cromie. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter) that Cromie is “in the mix” of candidates for the vacancy. He stepped away from the Nationals and from baseball in general back in 2017 to work at a law firm in Pittsburgh, per Janes. The Post’s Barry Svrluga notes that Cromie joined the Nats out of grad school and rose through the front-office ranks while putting himself through law school in the evenings before eventually deciding to fully pursue that legal career.

Verlander Showcase Draws Scouts From 15-20 Teams

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Two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who has pitched just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season due to 2020 Tommy John surgery, held a free-agent showcase this week. Representatives from as many as 15 to 20 teams this week, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, adding that Verlander’s fastball was clocked from 94 to 97 mph. He’s presently about 13 and a half months out from the surgery and will be 17 months removed from the procedure by the time Spring Training is set to begin.

As one would expect, the list of known teams in attendance at the showcase includes a blend of big-market contenders and a few rebuilding clubs looking to turn the corner and get back into competitive ball. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that the Yankees, Rangers and Tigers were in attendance. Sherman notes that the Mets had two scouts present for Verlander’s workout. TSN’s Scott Mitchell adds the Blue Jays to the pile, and the Post’s Ken Davidoff lists the Giants as another suitor. Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that the Halos had someone present to watch Verlander as well (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum).

Of course, given the stage of the offseason we’re at, it’s safe to assume that virtually any team with a modicum of 2022 postseason hope and/or any actual money to spent this offseason was at least present to gauge Verlander’s readiness. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom asked rhetorically when confirming his club’s presence at the showcase (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe): “Age might affect the term you consider, but if the present ability is there, why wouldn’t you be interested?”

By all accounts, the showcase went quite well. Beyond the multiple reports pegging Verlander’s velocity in the mid- to upper-90s, Sherman indicates that Verlander was able to throw all of his pitches and looked sharp across the board. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that one scout offered a simple, two-word assessment of Verlander after watching his open audition: “He’s ready.”

It’s certainly worth noting that the showcase was held at the Cressey Performance Center — a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber held his own showcase there last year and ultimately signed with the Yankees, but the mere location of Verlander’s workout doesn’t make a deal with the Yankees a foregone conclusion.

The Astros made a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Verlander over the weekend, but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject that in search of a multi-year offer. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that Verlander would likely be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, heavily implying at least a two-year term. Furthermore, hosting a showcase for two-thirds of the league is an obvious indicator that Verlander is interested in seeing what the market has to bear.

Verlander, 39 in February, didn’t pitch in 2021 and threw just six innings in 2020. Of course, in his last healthy season, he won the 2019 American League Cy Young Award after posting a 2.58 ERA in an MLB-best 223 innings with a huge 35.4% strikeout rate against a 5.0% walk rate. Verlander has said on multiple occasions in the past that he hopes to pitch well into his 40s.

Michael Conforto To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Free agent outfielder Michael Conforto will reject the Mets’ $18.4MM qualifying offer and explore the free agent market, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Should he sign elsewhere, the Mets would be entitled to draft pick compensation.

Conforto is coming off a down platform year, leading some fans to suggest he could accept the QO in hopes of re-testing free agency next winter off a better showing. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported in mid-September that the Mets expected Conforto to reject the offer even in spite of his atypically poor numbers, though, so today’s development comes as little surprise.

Heading into the 2021 season, Conforto looked to be one of the top position players in this year’s class. From 2019-20, he’d hit .274/.376/.499, numbers that were 35 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. That placed him in the top twenty qualified hitters, seemingly making Conforto a candidate to exceed nine figures with a typical platform year.

2021 was anything but typical, though, as Conforto slumped to a .232/.344/.384 line with just 14 home runs across 479 plate appearances. Those were his worst results since 2016, but they came with a career-low 21.7% strikeout rate and batted ball numbers not too dissimilar from his marks of years past. Entering his age-29 season, Conforto looks to be a prime bounceback target for suitors, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports his representatives at the Boras Corporation have already heard from upwards of twelve teams during the early stages of free agency. Depending on his priority, Conforto could still look to land a solid multi-year deal and lock in some long-term security or try to top the qualifying offer value on a one-year deal with designs on hitting the market again after 2022.

Teams who sign a qualified free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down which picks each team would forfeit in so doing. As a team who neither exceeded the luxury tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021, New York will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B (typically around 70-75 overall) in next year’s amateur draft were Conforto to sign elsewhere.

Pedro Feliciano Passes Away

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Former major league reliever Pedro Feliciano passed away last night, according to Eduardo Pérez of ESPN. He was 45 years old. The Mets, with whom Feliciano spent his entire major league career, released the following statement:

“The Mets are so saddened to hear of the loss to their family today. Pedro Feliciano will be remembered as a beloved member of the Mets organization for his impact as a great teammate as well as his reputation as one of the most competitive, durable and reliable relievers during his time in Queens. Our thoughts and prayers are with the entire Feliciano family. Rest in peace, Pedro.”

Feliciano appeared in parts of nine big league seasons from 2002-13. He led the major leagues in pitching appearances each season between 2008-10, serving as a situational option who was particularly effective against same-handed hitters. Over 383 2/3 career innings, he pitched to a 3.33 ERA, including four separate seasons of sub-3.40 ball. Feliciano also spent time in the Dodgers, Reds, Yankees and Cardinals organizations and pitched for a season in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

MLBTR joins countless others around the game in sending our condolences to Feliciano’s family, friends and loved ones.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Mets Extend Qualifying Offers To Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard

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The Mets announced that they have issued qualifying offers to outfielder Michael Conforto and right-hander Noah Syndergaard.  The two players have until November 17 to decide if they will accept the one-year, $18.4MM offer, or if either will reject the offer and test free agency.

It was already expected that Conforto would receive a QO, though there wasn’t as much clarity on Syndergaard, considering the righty has missed virtually all of the last two seasons.  Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and then his return was further delayed by elbow inflammation, before he got back in time to pitch two innings over two games late in the Mets’ 2021 campaign.

Before the TJ surgery, however, Syndergaard had exhibited some front-of-the-rotation stuff over his first five seasons with New York.  The peak was a 2016 season that saw “Thor” earn an All-Star nod and finish eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting, though over 716 innings from 2015-19, Syndergaard posted a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and a 20.7% K/BB rate.

If Syndergaard is able to deliver close to those types of numbers when healthy in 2022, that is certainly worth an $18.4MM payday.  With this in mind, the Mets clearly felt comfortable issuing the QO to Syndergaard knowing that he very well could accept the one-year deal now, and re-enter free agency next winter in search of a longer-term contract (and an actual platform year on his resume).  Syndergaard returning to the fold would go a long ways towards bolstering a Mets rotation that might lose Marcus Stroman to free agency, plus Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are coming off injury-plagued seasons of their own.

New York is now also eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick if Syndergaard rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, and that possibility can’t be ruled out.  Another team might feel Syndergaard is worth some kind of multi-year commitment right now, or possibly a multi-year deal that contains an opt-out clause after a year so Syndergaard could end up re-entering the 2022-23 free agent class after all.

Conforto seemed like a surefire bet to receive a qualifying offer prior to the 2021 campaign, yet some doubts were raised when the outfielder struggled for a big portion of the season.  A strained right hamstring cost Comforto over a month on the injured list, and he hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances — a large step back from his .259/.358/.484 slash line over his first six seasons.

Looking at the advanced metrics, there isn’t any clear reason behind Conforto’s dropoff, apart from an increase in his groundball rate (a career-high 44.7%), which combined with a .276 BABIP could have resulted in just some bad batted-ball luck.  Apart from that one stat, however, many of Conforto’s 2021 metrics were pretty close or even better than his career rates.

It would seem like Conforto might also be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer, if he wished to enter free agency on the heels of a better platform year come next winter.  However, reports suggest that Conforto will likely reject the QO and test the market this season.  It stands to reason that multiple teams will still have interest in giving Conforto a nice multi-year contract (especially since 2022 will only be his age-29 season), though it will be interesting to see just how big a deal he lands in the wake of his somewhat average 2021 numbers.

Latest On Mets Search For A General Manager

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Another couple of names have been withdrawn from the Mets’ search for a new general manager. Sig Mejdal is now out of the running, per Andy Martino of SNY (via Twitter). Mejdal is an assistant general manager and vice president with the Orioles who came to Baltimore from Houston with Mike Elias. Mejdal’s strength is analytics, and he’ll continue to ply that trade to build towards a better future in Baltimore.

Red Sox assistant GM and vice president Raquel Ferreira pulled her name from the running as well after having discussions with Mets official this past week, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Ferreria’s name has been bandied about as a potential GM candidate around the league after 23 years in Boston.

Given how the last year has gone for Mets’ front office officials, it’s no surprise that Ferreira would pull her name from consideration. The organization’s culture has been repeatedly called into question, as has the autonomy of whoever takes over as GM, given Alderson’s continued presence in the organization.

Frankly, given the short tenures of Alderson’s first two hires as GM, it’s a touch surprising that he’s being given a third crack at this particular egg in the same calendar year. On the other hand, setting up the Mets front office for the future is the exact job that he was hired to do, and as of now, that task is incomplete.

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