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Archives for January 2013

Arbitration Breakdown: Hunter Pence

By Matt Swartz | January 8, 2013 at 9:25am CDT

Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors (read more about it here), but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Hunter Pence enters his fourth year of arbitration with a good chance of getting a fourth consecutive raise of between $3MM and $4MM. My model projects him to add a $3.4MM raise, giving him a $13.8MM salary for 2013. Pence had a pretty disappointing performance in 2012, but his career-high 104 RBI should be enough to get him a good boost. After hitting .314 in 2011, Pence only hit .253 in 2012. However, he did hit 24 home runs and play in all but two games on his way to 688 plate appearances.

Very few players have entered arbitration four different times without signing multiyear deals or being non-tendered, so players who do so are often compared with each other and with players who are eligibile for only the third time. As it happens, this makes Pence a pretty good comparison for himself last year since he had 24 home runs and 104 RBI after having 22 home runs and 97 RBI. Of course, his batting average this season was worse, and Pence will probably not be compared to himself last year anyway.

Among players who did enter arbitration for the fourth time, Mike Napoli in 2012 could be a good comparable, but his .320 batting average and 30 home runs make him a poor match, even though he only had 476 plate appearances and just 75 RBI. He did get a $3.6MM raise, however. No other fourth-time eligible players who have signed one-year deals in recent years have even hit 20 home runs, so we will need to look beyond that to find good comparables for Pence.

Since Pence’s most compelling case for a large raise comes from breaking the 100 RBI barrier, it is useful to look at the list of players who were eligible for at least their third year of arbitration and who had 100 RBI, and also restrict to players who signed one-year deals. There are only two such players: Mark Teixeira, who hit .306 and had 30 home runs and 105 RBI with 575 plate appearances in 2008 (he got a $2.7MM raise), and Jorge Cantu, who hit .289 with 16 home runs and 100 RBIs in 643 plate appearances, and only got a $2.5MM raise. Since Teixeira’s raise is five years old and Cantu had far fewer home runs, neither of them makes for great cases.

If we try to look for players with players with similar home run totals, say at least 20 but no more than 30, while also restricting ourselves to players with batting averages below .270 and with at least 80 RBI, only two players come up (among those who got one-year deals): B.J. Upton in 2012 and Austin Kearns in 2007. Upton hit .243 with 23 home runs and 81 RBI, though he stole 36 bases. Kearns hit .264 with 24 home runs and 86 RBI, and got just a $1.65MM raise, but since that case is so old, I doubt his name would come up in Pence’s case. Since both Upton and Kearns had less appealing statistics to arbitration panels (RBI matter far more), Pence is likely to easily top them.

There are some other players with 20-29 home runs who either did not get 80 RBI or who hit better than .270. Xavier Nady in 2009 is one such player. He got a $3.2MM raise after hitting .305 with 25 home runs and 97 RBI, though he had only 607 plate appearances. Adam Jones is another similar player. He hit .280 in 2011 with 25 home runs, but just 83 RBI. He got a $2.9MM raise, and Pence should be able to top that despite the lower batting average, since RBI matter so much to panels. One other such player with medium-high home runs is Luke Scott, who got a $2.35MM raise in 2011, after hitting .284 with 27 home runs, but just 72 RBI in 517 plate appearances. Pence should top all three of these guys.

If we expanded to include players who hit a little more than 30 home runs but still had averages below .270 and at least 80 RBI, we would be able to include Prince Fielder, who got a $4MM raise in 2011. Fielder hit .261 with 32 home runs, but just 83 RBI amidst 714 plate appearances. He could be a useful comparison for Pence due to his large raise.

If we really let the RBI restrictions go, we might include Kelly Johnson in 2011. This would also involve ignoring position, but at this point, without ideal comparables, he might be in play. He hit .284 with 26 home runs in 671 plate appearances, but only got 71 RBI. He still got a $3.5MM raise, though. Just falling short of nearly all of the above criteria was Casey Blake in 2008 — he hit .270 with 18 home runs and 78 RBI, and got a $2.35MM raise.

Clearly almost no one is a good match for Pence this year. The plausible names we have suggested above include Mike Napoli, Mark Teixeira, Jorge Cantu, B.J. Upton, Xavier Nady, Adam Jones, Luke Scott, Prince Fielder, Kelly Johnson, and Casey Blake. None of them are very good comparables. Almost all of them are a little useful. Pence had more plate appearances than nine of the ten and more RBI than nine of the ten as well. He only higher a higher average than one of these ten, though, and only had more home runs than four of the ten. Three of these ten players had more steals than Pence, five had fewer steals, and two had the same number.

These ten hitters got raises ranging between $2.175MM and $4MM. The median raise in the group was $3.05MM. Since these deals tend to be around two to three years old on average and Pence had more plate appearances and RBI (the more important arbitration stats, along with home runs) than most of these guys, my best guess is that Pence should be in the same range but a little higher. That makes the $3.4MM projected raise seem pretty reasonable to me.

Pence is the kind of player for whom the arbitration model I have developed is the most useful. It can struggle to identify salaries of players who are anomalously good or who have had odd career trajectories, but for a player who is far better than his peers in some statistics and far worse than his peers in other areas, the model can split the difference and come up with a reasonable projection. I think Pence is highly likely to be close to the $13.8MM salary the model projects for him.

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Arbitration Breakdown San Francisco Giants Hunter Pence

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Mets Notes: Young, Pavano, Bourn

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 8, 2013 at 8:23am CDT

Free agent outfielder Scott Hairston is choosing between his former team, the Mets, and New York's American League representative, the Yankees. As we await news on Hairston's decision, here are some Mets-related links…

  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson said he'd like to add a starting pitcher of the Chris Young or Carl Pavano ilk, ESPN.com's Adam Rubin reports. “I couldn’t identify who that might be at this point, but that general category of player is probably what we’re looking at,” Alderson said. The Mets have also been linked to Shaun Marcum, though Marcum's asking price could deter the Mets.
  • Alderson said the Mets also hope to add at least one veteran reliever before Opening Day, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. The GM explained that it was a difficult winter to build through free agency. "The free agent market for outfielders was almost as overpriced as the market for starting pitching," he said. "But be that as it may, we're still looking." A trade remains possible, though there are some prospects Alderson wouldn't deal.
  • The Mets need outfield depth, but don't expect them to consider Michael Bourn. They would have to surrender their first round pick to sign a free agent such as Bourn, and Alderson confirmed to Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger that the Mets aren’t about to give up their top draft choice. “We’ve very wary of that. It’s not our M.O,” he said.
  • Mets scouts have watched Javier Vazquez, McCullough reports. Teams have been watching the right-hander throw in Puerto Rico.
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New York Mets Carl Pavano Chris Young Javier Vazquez Michael Bourn

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Quick Hits: Mariners, Lohse, Soriano, Gerut

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 7, 2013 at 11:39pm CDT

Kyle Lohse placed tenth on MLBTR's list of the offseason's top free agents, a reflection of the fact that Tim Dierkes expects the right-hander to help his next team. But unless something has changed in the last three days, Lohse hasn't received a single contract offer this winter. He’s tied to draft pick compensation after turning down a qualifying offer, and that has no doubt limited his leverage. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs argues that the hate has gone too far, showing convincingly that Lohse adds value at the plate, on the field and, of course, as a pitcher. Here are more links from around MLB…

  • The Mariners would like to add a lefty to the rotation to replace Jason Vargas, but don't expect it to be Joe Saunders or Erik Bedard, writes MLB.com's Greg Johns in a Mariners Inbox piece. If a lefty joins the rotation, it's more likely to be one of Seattle's top prospects like James Paxton or Danny Hultzen.
  • It’s still early to be assessing the way the new collective bargaining agreement shapes the market for free agents such as Lohse, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes. While the market for certain players linked to draft pick compensation does seem slow, Davidoff points out that every one of these players declined a $13.3MM qualifying offer.
  • Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record hears that agent Scott Boras asked the Yankees last month if they'd consider re-signing free agent closer Rafael Soriano to a one-year contract (Twitter link). The Yankees flatly denied the request, Klapisch writes. ESPN.com's Buster Olney says the Yankees prefer the value of the draft pick and accompanying spending limit increase to the on-field value of Soriano (Twitter link).
  • Former MLB player Jody Gerut is working to reduce athlete bankruptcy in his new role as an agent with Wasserman Media Group, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com reports. Gerut's focusing on educating athletes, particularly Latin Americans, about how to manage their finances.
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Collective Bargaining Agreement New York Yankees Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Erik Bedard Jody Gerut Joe Saunders Kyle Lohse Rafael Soriano

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Phillies Likely Done Making Moves

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2013 at 10:33pm CDT

The Phillies haven't added the type of high-profile free agents they have in recent years, but they may be done making moves despite that fact. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told reporters, including Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that his work this winter is probably done:

"We're likely going with what we've got," Ruben Amaro Jr. said.

Amaro noted that entering the season with a number of platoons and uncertainties isn't ideal. He wouldn't rule out another veteran addition, but said any further signings would likely be of the low-risk, high-reward variety. The Phillies do have a bit of money to spend, but that flexibility may come into play closer to the trade deadline rather than this offseason.

As MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows, this offseason's only major free agent signings include John Lannan and Mike Adams. Amaro has also acquired Michael Young and Ben Revere via trade, though in doing so he subtracted a key piece of his 2013 rotation in Vance Worley.

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Philadelphia Phillies

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D’Backs, Orioles Discussed Kubel, Upton

By Zachary Links | January 7, 2013 at 9:50pm CDT

Monday: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports adds (via Twitter) that the Orioles have also shown serious interest in Justin Upton over the past few weeks, but talks between the two sides have sputtered. The Orioles are shifting their focus to starting pitching. They've expressed interest in bringing Joe Saunders back recently.

Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun adds (via Twitter) that the Orioles find Arizona's asking price for Upton too high.

Saturday: The Diamondbacks are looking to get young pitching from the Orioles in a trade for outfielder Jason Kubel, but Baltimore has been disinclined to do that to this point, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  Arizona has a surplus of outfielders and some believe that they would prefer to trade Kubel than Justin Upton at this stage.

Kubel hit .253/.327/.506 with a career-high 30 home runs in 141 games with Arizona last year.  The 30-year-old is due to earn $7.5MM in 2013 with a mutual option for the same amount in 2014.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Jason Kubel Justin Upton

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Freddy Sanchez Drawing Interest

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2013 at 9:10pm CDT

It's been almost exactly 19 months since Freddy Sanchez appeared in a Major League game, but the former NL Batting Champ is drawing heavy interest, reports ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (Insider required). Sanchez's agent Paul Cobbe tells Crasnick that roughly 20 teams have asked to see Sanchez's medical reports.

Sanchez, 35, hasn't played a game since June 2011 — the result of operations on his shoulder and back. He won the National League batting title in 2006 when he hit .344/.378/.473. In 3,686 career plate appearances between the Pirates and Giants, Sanchez is a .297/.335/.413 hitter.

Sanchez has extensive experience and third base and second base, though he hasn't manned the hot corner since 2006. In terms of fielding, Ultimate Zone Rating is a fan of his glove at both positions, though the Fielding Bible pegs him as a slightly below-average defender at second base.

Cobbe tells Crasnick that Sanchez is healthy and has been keeping himself in good shape, playing pick-up basketball for two-to-three hours a day, six days per week.

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Uncategorized Freddy Sanchez

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Red Sox Hopeful They Can Complete Napoli Deal

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2013 at 7:45pm CDT

It's been more than a month since the Red Sox and Mike Napoli initially reached an agreement on a three-year, $39MM contract, but that deal has yet to be finalized. The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham writes that the Red Sox are still working on getting a deal finalized, and the team is hopeful it will get done. It's been believed that a hip injury has held up the deal's completion.

Boston has since engaged in discussions with the representatives for Adam LaRoche. Abraham writes that Napoli hasn't talked with other teams in this time, though there were reports to the contrary last month. Back on Dec. 27, Mike Axisa polled MLBTR readers, and 57 percent of respondents thought that the deal would fall through and Napoli would sign elsewhere.

The 31-year-old Napoli is just one year removed from a .320/.414/.631 season in which he belted 30 homers for the Rangers. That production dropped significantly in 2012, though his .227/.343/.469 line and 24 long balls were more than respectable. Boston plans to use Napoli as its primary first baseman, though he'd previously stated his preference was to remain behind the dish.

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Boston Red Sox Mike Napoli

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Dodgers Sign J.P. Howell

By Mike Axisa | January 7, 2013 at 7:38pm CDT

The Dodgers' offseason spending continues, as they've officially announced the signing of J.P. Howell to a one-year deal. Howell will reportedly earn $2.85MM with an additional $1.2MM worth of incentives built into the contract. The left-hander is a Legacy Sports Group client.

Uspw_6472630Howell, 29, pitched to a 3.04 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 50 1/3 innings for the Rays last season after missing all of 2010 and part of 2011 due to shoulder surgery. He held left-handed batters to a .200/.306/.306 batting line with a 52.4% ground ball rate in 2012. Howell is a soft-tosser, averaging just 87.1 mph with his fastball last year according to PitchFX.

The Dodgers have not been shy about spending over the last eight months or so. They've re-signed Brandon League while adding Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu this offseason, plus they acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and others during the season. Howell replaces the departed Randy Choate, who took a three-year deal with the Cardinals last month.

MLBTR's Tim Dierkes did not rank Howell as one of the offseason's Top 50 Free Agents. As our Free Agent Tracker shows, lefty relievers like Will Ohman, J.C. Romero, and Manny Parra remain unsigned.

Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times was the first to report that the two sides were nearing an agreement (on Twitter), and ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the agreement had been reached. Olney also added Howell's base salary (Twitter link), while Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted news of the incentives.

Steve Adams also contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions J.P. Howell

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Orioles, Showalter Progressing Toward Extension

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 7, 2013 at 7:30pm CDT

Monday: Showalter's extension isn't expected to be completed until next week, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports (on Twitter). There are no snags in the negotiations, the two sides are simply moving slowly and both have busy schedules.

Friday: 9:38pm: The new deal would be for three years and would keep Showalter in Baltimore through 2016, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

7:45am: The Orioles could announce a contract extension for manager Buck Showalter as soon as early next week, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Owner Peter Angelos will meet with Showalter again today to discuss the manager’s next contract.

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reported last month that the sides were close to a deal. Showalter and Angelos met several times last month, Kubatko reports. If everything goes according to plan, they’ll agree to a multiyear deal within a few days.

The Orioles made their first postseason appearance in 15 years this past season after finishing the regular season with a 93-69 record. Showalter, 56, finished second to A's manager Bob Melvin in the 2012 American League Manager of the Year voting. Now entering his fourth season with Baltimore, Showalter has a record of 1078-1018 in 14 seasons managing at the MLB level.

Mike Axisa contributed to this post.

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Baltimore Orioles

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Rangers Designate Tommy Hottovy For Assignment

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2013 at 6:44pm CDT

The Rangers have designated left-hander Tommy Hottovy for assignment to make room for Lance Berkman, the team announced via press release.

The Rangers acquired the 30-year-old southpaw from the Royals in November in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. In 13 1/3 career Major League innings for the Red Sox and Royals, Hottovy has a 4.05 ERA, eight walks and eight strikeouts.

Hottovy whiffed an impressive 61 batters in 50 Triple-A innings last season and also showed good command with just 16 walks. His career numbers at Triple-A are strong; he's pitched to a 3.18 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 121 2/3 innings of work. The Wichita State product was a fourth-round selction of the Red Sox in the 2004 Draft.

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Texas Rangers Transactions

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