GM Notes: Future Candidates, Zduriencik
ESPN's Jim Bowden, a former GM of both the Reds and Expos/Nationals, recently took a look at Frank Wren's rise to general manager of the Braves. Within his ESPN Insider piece, Bowden identifies three front office executives who, like Wren, are being groomed as successors to their current GMs. He also identifies three candidates who will likely become GMs in other organizations. Here are some highlights from the piece and other GM news…
- Bowden feels that Rockies senior VP Bill Geivett, Tigers VP/assistant GM Al Avila and Athletics assistant GM David Forst are all next in line to become the GM of their respective franchises. Geivett, in particular, is already handling the day-to-day operations, and Bowden feels it's just a matter of time before he's given the official title of general manager.
- Bowden asked present GMs around the game who the top GM candidates outside of their own organizations were. The results, in order, were Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine, Cubs VP of scouting and player development Jason McLeod and Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings. Bowden notes that each is blocked for one reason or another but would have plenty of interest from other clubs seeking a new GM.
- Jack Zduriencik's time as GM of the Mariners may be running out, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Mariners once again find themselves last in the American League in runs scored — the same place they've been for the previous four years under Zduriencik's watch. Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero have yet to establish themselves as big leaguers, and the trades of Cliff Lee and Doug Fister look poor in hindsight. Rosenthal notes that Hisashi Iwakuma is a coup for Zduriencik, and that help is close with Mike Zunino, Nick Franklin, James Paxton and Danny Hultzen at Triple-A. A breakthrough is needed soon, however, and Zduriencik conceded that he knows it.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Byrd, Carpenter, Blue Jays
On this date in 2008, the Pirates released Matt Morris, a move which cost the team more than $11MM. The pitcher lasted only 1 2/3 innings against the Phillies in his previous start and compiled an 0-4 record with a 9.67 ERA in his five April outings for the Bucs. Here's this week's look around the baseball blogosphere..
- Wahoo's On First spoke with former pitcher Paul Byrd.
- The Daily Statesman sat down with Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals.
- Blue Jays Way tries to diagnose the problem in Toronto.
- Amazin Avenue asks if an extension would make sense for Dillon Gee.
- Pinstripe Pundits looks at Brett Gardner's new approach at the plate.
- On The Way Home asks if Bryce Harper is turning into the next Chipper Jones.
- World Series Dreaming explores the idea of abandoning the draft.
- Marlin Maniac held a roundtable on Giancarlo Stanton and more.
- Baseball Hot Corner has some trade proposals involving Stanton.
- Sodo Mojo is frustrated with the Mariners.
- Prospect Insider discussed the future of Franklin Gutierrez and the Mariners.
- Federal Baseball profiled Shelby Miller in advance of his showdown vs. the Nats.
- Lasorda's Lair says the Dodgers' biggest problem is baserunning.
- Grading On The Curve is concerned about Jacob Turner.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Zach can be reached at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.
Cubs Likely To Draft Appel Or Gray
Major League Baseball's draft is still about six weeks away, but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the Cubs are likely to draft either Stanford right-hander Mark Appel or Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray with the No. 2 overall pick. Wittenmyer spoke about the draft to multiple team sources, including manager Dale Sveum who told him:
"Obviously, the two big boys, Appel and Gray, if those guys keep the velocity where it is and everything’s going good, I think it’s hard not to take one of them guys."
Appel and Gray are widely considered to be the top two pitching prospects in this year's draft, but other names such as high school outfielders Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier, as well as San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant and Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea have garnered attention as potential Top 5 selections.
The Cubs will have a bonus pool of roughly $10.6MM, Wittenmyer notes, with around $6MM allocated to the No. 2 overall slot. There has been some question as to what it will take to sign Appel, a Scott Boras client, after he fell to the Pirates at No. 8 last year but refused to sign for their $3.8MM offer.
If the report holds true, this would mark the first time the Cubs have selected a pitcher in the Top 10 since Mark Prior back in 2001. Since that time, the Cubs have had a Top 10 selection on four other occasions. Those picks were used on high school outfielder Ryan Harvey (sixth overall in 2003), high school third baseman Josh Vitters (third overall in 2007), high school shortstop Javier Baez (ninth in 2011) and high school outfielder Albert Almora (sixth overall in 2012).
The Cubs have taken college pitchers Hayden Simpson, Andrew Cashner and Bobby Brownlie in the first round since drafting Prior, though each came in the second half of the first round.
Yankees Likely To Exceed 2014 Luxury Tax Threshold
The Yankees appear increasingly likely to set the team's payroll above the $189MM luxury tax threshold for next season, writes Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan. Passan quotes an unspecified source: "They're going to be over [$189MM]. They know it. Everyone knows it. You can't run a $3 billion team with the intentions of saving a few million dollars." Of course, the Yankees never thought they would be saving only a few million dollars when they began speaking publicly about their intentions. Instead, the club was reportedly looking to save something in the neighborhood of $50MM.
Passan explains why that anticipated saving may no longer be available. First, the team no longer expects to recover a substantial amount of the money that it contributes to the MLB revenue sharing system. Rule changes had promised big money to the Yanks if they got under the threshold.
The rules used to allow certain big-market clubs with smaller revenues — such as the Nationals, Braves, and Blue Jays — to receive shared funds. Beginning in 2014, however, such clubs will begin sending that money back to the large-market, high-revenue clubs (like the Yankees) from whence it came. The contributing clubs get a rebate in proportion to their contributions, but only if they fall under the luxury tax threshhold. But with clubs like those mentioned shifting toward higher payrolls, the imbalance is disappearing and with it the potential funds to be reclaimed. A Passan source says that "the pool is going to be much less than everyone anticipated."
The direct luxury tax savings, in turn, may not be enough on their own to make the limbo act worthwhile. Passan explains that, were the Yankees to dip under the threshold for one season (presumably 2014), the club's luxury tax savings over the next two years could range from around $15.6MM (on a hypothetical $205MM payroll for 2015-16) to over $30MM (on a hypothetical $220MM payroll in those years). In other words, the savings increase as the anticipated future salary goes up.
It could be difficult to engineer a one-year salary valley, followed by an immediate spike, in a manner that makes the maneuvering worthwhile while efficiently creating good results on the field. Looking ahead to 2014, the Yankees already have a large amount of money committed to a small number of players, many of whom face age, injury, and/or other issues that could limit their value. The team will also be looking to re-sign superstar Robinson Cano. Moreover, a purge-and-binge free agency strategy may not allow the Yanks to fill all their needs from an increasingly shallow free agent market, potentially leading to overspending on sub-optimal players. The future free agent classes will not be as flush with talent as expected by the time we actually reach them, with several of the biggest names already locked up.
Of course, there is also an enormously valuable brand to protect and grow. Add it all up, and the risks may well not justify the relatively unimpressive savings that the Yanks could reap from getting under the salary ceiling. In early March, over 60% of MLBTR readers who voted said the Yankees would not get under the threshold for 2014. That community projection is looking good right now. What, then, would the impact be on the broader market for MLB talent?
To start, an uncapped Yankee budget would leave no obvious barriers to the retention of Cano. Perhaps more importantly, the Yanks would seem to be positioned to take on major additional salary obligations even after putting a Cano extension in the books. While no unquestionable impact players appear atop the class of prospective free agents (excepting, of course, Cano), Yankee money would nevertheless have a major impact on market demand. Even last year, when the Yankees seemed quiet in anticipation of the 2014 austerity plan, the club had the seventh-highest total offseason spend according to MLBTR's Offseason In Review tabulations. (The Yanks issued over $95MM in new money commitments, all in short-term deals. That figure includes free agent signings and exercised options, but not extensions.)
Depending on how things shake out, the team could have needs all over the diamond, including catcher, corner outfield, the left side of the infield, and the rotation. In fact, with the exception of Chase Utley — assuming that he will look to sign as a second baseman — the Yankees' needs could conceivably match with any of the players listed by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes in his latest 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.
NL Notes: Selig, Padres, Braves, Garza
Commissioner Bud Selig says he wants his stewardship of the game to be judged by the value of MLB's franchises, writes Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal. He called the Dodgers' sale "stunning," and said that "every franchise is worth a lot more today … because the game is healthy." Selig also weighed in on the DH, saying that "some cataclysmic event" would be needed to keep the bat out of National League pitchers' hands. Here are some more notes from around the National League:
- Padres GM Josh Byrnes is taking a hard look at the club's farm system to find a solution to the team's pitching woes, writes Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Fangraphs, the Padres' rotation has put up negative 1.4 WAR thus far, a full .5 WAR worse than the second-to-last Astros staff. Jenkins says that the front office's "unwillingness or failure" to supplement the team's less-than-promising rotation over the offseason is to blame for the club's present difficulties.
- Two in-house options for San Diego are minor league arms Tim Stauffer and Sean O'Sullivan, both of whom possess similar out clauses in their contracts, writes Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Center says that both pitchers can opt out around June 1 if they have not been elevated to the Padres' big league roster.
- The emergence of catcher Evan Gattis could ultimately have an impact on the Braves' plans behind the dish, writes MLB.com's Mark Bowman. The team has benefitted enormously from his performance as stalwart Brian McCann works his way back from injury. But as Bowman says, the first-place Braves have every reason to try and work McCann back into his starting role, and still have Gerald Laird locked up for this year and next. On the other hand, with the Braves already unlikely to re-sign McCann after this season, Gattis's continued performance could make that decision much easier for the team.
- Meanwhile, Bowman says the Braves were interested in locking up outfielder Jason Heyward and first baseman Freddie Freeman during the offseason. Despite the team's efforts to initiate talks, however, they were rebuffed by the young stars. Heyward currently stands to reach free agency in 2016, with Freeman following him in 2017.
- Cubs starter Matt Garza suffered yet another setback, failing to make his first rehab start after suffering from what Cubs manager Dale Sveum called a "dead arm," writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribute. Garza is, however, scheduled for long toss tomorrow and should be set up for a comeback start soon, David Furones writes for MLB.com. Of course, the Cubs would like not only to benefit from Garza's work on the mound, but to begin his audition for teams looking for rotation help at the trade deadline. In addition to the already-noted Chase Utley, Garza is one of several players that ESPN's Buster Olney says (on Insider) to keep an eye on as trade season approaches. Others include Mets catcher John Buck and Indians reliever Chris Perez.
AL Notes: Ankiel, Mariners, Twins, Ramirez, Ortiz
Rick Ankiel could be nearing the end of his well-documented but still-surreal path through baseball, writes Joe Posnanski of NBCSports.com. Evoking the poet Dylan Thomas ("rage, rage against the dying of the light … do not go gentle into that good night"), Posnanski notes that Ankiel's journey has taken one more incredible turn. In 42 plate appearances this season prior to this evening's game, Ankiel posted a remarkable 26:0 strikeout to walk ratio, but was slugging over .600 thanks to his five home runs and two doubles. While long known as a free swinger with contact issues, Ankiel appears to be bringing both those labels to heretofore unseen extremes for the struggling Astros. Elsewhere around the American League:
- It is time to wonder whether and when the Mariners will start firing people, writes Dave Cameron at U.S.S. Mariner. While Cameron is no fan of manager Eric Wedge, he feels that there is little to be gained from a mid-season firing of the team's skipper. And while the team might be tempted to can GM Jack Zduriencik, that could create major logistical difficulties with the upcoming draft and then trade deadline. Ultimately, says Cameron, Seattle will be hard pressed to avoid reaping what it sowed in a confounding offseason.
- Twins GM Terry Ryan says it was "just happenstance" that this offseason saw the club acquire a series of groundball-inducing righties (Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, and Kevin Correia), Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reports. Ryan has a background in what Berardino describes as "old-school scouting principles." Nevertheless, the GM says that he does not make any decisions without consulting his statistics guru, Jack Goin, whose official title is manager of major league administration and baseball research.
- The Angels have outrighted right-handed Elvin Ramirez to Triple-A after the pitcher cleared waivers, writes Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com (via Twitter). Ramirez was acquired from the Mets for cash about a month back. The move means that the club has cleared a spot on its 40-man roster, Gonzalez also notes.
- After being designated for assignment to make room for Aaron Laffey, pitcher Ramon Ortiz has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A by the Blue Jays, according to the club's Buffalo affiliate (on Twitter). He made one appearance for Toronto this year after spending all of 2012 in the Yankees' system.
Red Sox Notes: Lucchino, Aceves
Former Red Sox GM and current Cubs president Theo Epstein discussed the closer-by-committee concept, which he tried unsuccessfully with the Sox ten years back. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports, Epstein recalled how the 2003 situation unfolded: "We were lowering payroll, we wanted to spread some of the remaining money around and we wanted to get draft picks. We felt like the best plan was to get a bunch of good arms and see what happened. It was bad execution because a few of the guys we got didn't perform early so it became a huge controversy. In hindsight we were a little naive how big a story it was going to become and how it was going to take on a life of its own in a detrimental fashion." Epstein still feels that utilization of late-inning matchups is, "in the absence of a clear-cut closer, … a fine strategy," but notes that "it can wreak havoc" if "the media and the public get involved."
- For different reasons, the current Red Sox club could see its own closer situation making headlines shortly, as WEEI.com's Victor Barbosa writes. Team president and CEO Larry Lucchino says that he "think[s] that there will be a controversy" when Joel Hanrahan returns, given the strong work of Andrew Bailey. But, he said, quite unlike the 2003 team, this one finds itself with more than one qualified closer. Lucchino praised the work of GM Ben Cherington and his staff in assembling the team's bullpen this past offseason, along with focusing on acquiring "good teammates who could perform in the crucible that is Boston and make this team likable but also good."
- Manager John Farrell says the team's decision to ship pitcher Alfredo Aceves to Triple-A is "performance-based, solely," reports the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber. Cherington echoed that sentiment, saying that Aceves "just has to pitch better," according to WEEI.com's Alex Speier. Cherington claims that, in spite of Aceves's demotion (and rumors that the team is looking to trade him), the team continues to believe that he can provide value in Boston. He called Aceves "a hard worker" that has "been a successful pitcher in the big leagues for more than one year."
- Regardless of what they do with Aceves, Boston will hold him to the requirement that he accept the assignment within 72 hours or risk his $2.65MM salary guarantee, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. (The club will, however, let him wait until Saturday, when Triple-A Pawtucket returns home, Heyman tweets.) Heyman further writes that, whatever Aceves's potential, the Red Sox should simply release him. Aceves not only has proven more trouble than he is worth to the team, says Heyman, but he figures to have minimal trade value at this point.
Nationals Exercise Mike Rizzo’s 2014 Option
The Nationals have exercised their 2014 contract option for GM Mike Rizzo, tweets MLB.com's Bill Ladson, as they continue to work on an extension beyond next season. Rizzo's current contract also has a club option for 2015.
Rizzo was named the Nationals' interim GM in March 2009, and was hired full-time in August of that year. In 2012, Rizzo's fourth season at the helm, the team won an MLB-best 98 games.
For the Nats, Rizzo has drafted Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Drew Storen, and Anthony Rendon among others. Rizzo's major trades include Mike Morse, Sean Burnett, Wilson Ramos, Gio Gonzalez, and Denard Span. He's signed free agents such as Jayson Werth, Rafael Soriano, Adam LaRoche, Jason Marquis, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson and done significant extensions with Ryan Zimmerman and Gonzalez.
Stark On Shields, Stanton, Masterson, Fowler
Jayson Stark leads his latest column for ESPN with a discussion of the ten managers currently in the last year of their contracts, noting that teams these days are more willing to allow skippers' contracts to expire. Also from Stark's column:
- One American League executive would rather give a $100MM contract to James Shields than Zack Greinke, because Greinke sometimes "seems a little disinterested" while Shields is regarded as more of a competitor. Shields is on track for free agency after the 2014 season, assuming the Royals exercise a club option for about $13.5MM after this season.
- An NL exec wouldn't give up Travis D'Arnaud or Zack Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton.
- A Justin Masterson–Dexter Fowler trade between the Indians and Rockies "was talked about extensively early in the offseason," according to Stark. Masterson is under the Indians' control through 2014, while the Rockies control Fowler through 2015.
- In regard to shortstop Jean Segura, Brewers GM Doug Melvin commented, "I see people talk about the [Jurickson] Profars and even the Dee Gordons. But they never talk about him. He's an exciting player." Melvin acquired Segura, John Hellweg, and Ariel Pena from the Angels for Greinke last summer.
Phillies Notes: Amaro, Utley, Manuel
Roy Halladay posted his third consecutive quality start last night against the Pirates, but relievers Antonio Bastardo, Mike Adams, and Jeremy Horst couldn't hold a lead and the Phillies fell to 9-13. The latest on the club:
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports spoke to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who said, "The next four months are very important for our organization. We have a lot of potential free agents — Chooch, Chase, Halladay, Michael Young, Delmon Young. Do we want to go younger, or do we move forward with the guys we’ve got We’re going to have to turn left or right. We have to decide." The trade deadline is about three months away, at which point the Phillies will be forced to make a choice. Amaro does, however, think the team's payroll will remain in its current range (around $165MM).
- The Phillies likely won't trade longtime second baseman Chase Utley, opines ESPN's Buster Olney, but the scribe does find the Orioles and Royals to be great fits.
- "I plan to keep managing — unless I decide all of a sudden I don't want to do it," manager Charlie Manuel told ESPN's Jayson Stark. Manuel is in the last year of his contract, but "I don't think the players give two craps about it," Amaro told Stark.