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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles will look to add a starting pitcher and another big bat (or two) to help them get back to the postseason, while also juggling a number of interesting arbitration cases.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

After a surprise playoff berth in 2012, the Orioles proved they weren't a fluke by posting another winning season in 2013.  What kept the O's six games out of an AL wild card slot, however, was their starting pitching, as Baltimore ranked near the bottom of the league in ERA (27th), innings pitched (22nd) and strikeouts (24th).

While improvement is clearly needed, the O's are in the difficult position of having a number of possible rotation upgrades within the organization already, except that they're still waiting for several of these young arms to break out.  The club doesn't want to acquire an expensive starter when a much more cost-effective hurler could emerge if just given an opportunity.  Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette recently said that the team wants to improve its pitching without trading top prospects or spending too much in free agency, so Duquette may have to get creative if he wants to make a significant rotation upgrade.

Chris Tillman has posted a 3.48 ERA with a 7.5 K/9 and 2.66 K/BB rate in 48 starts over the last two seasons, and the 2013 All-Star is the incumbent ace of Baltimore's staff.  Miguel Gonzalez and Wei-Yin Chen line up behind him having both delivered solid 2013 campaigns, though Chen spent a couple of months on the disabled list.  Bud Norris also returns having posted a 4.80 ERA in 11 games after he came to Baltimore from Houston in July, though that number was inflated by one particularly rough start against Oakland and a .387 BABIP for Norris as an Oriole.

Scott Feldman, the team's other major midseason starting acquisition, is a free agent and both sides share an interest in continuing their relationship.  MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts Feldman will find a two-year, $17MM contract (with a vesting option on a third year) on the free agent market this winter and that's a price that that Orioles would likely be able to fit into their budget, as long as another team doesn't offer Feldman a guaranteed third year.

Jason Hammel got the start on Opening Day after looking like a breakout star in 2012, but the right-hander struggled to a 4.97 ERA in 139 1/3 IP last year and now is rumored to have pitched his last game in the black and orange.  Hammel has had troubles staying healthy so, unless he re-signs for little more than his $6.75MM 2013 salary, the Orioles will probably let him go elsewhere.

On the "young phenom" front, Kevin Gausman posted a 5.66 ERA but a 9.3 K/9 and 3.77 K/BB over his first 47 2/3 Major League innings in 2013.  He could win himself a rotation spot with a big spring, though the O's might want to give him more Triple-A seasoning before expecting him to produce in a pennant-contending rotation.  Dylan Bundy (a preseason consensus top-three prospect in baseball), underwent Tommy John surgery last June and won't be able to contribute until midseason at best, though since he has only one year of pro experience, it's likely the Orioles will take it easy on his arm and not bring him back to the Majors right away.

Zach Britton, Steve Johnson and T.J. McFarland will be given chances to impress as starting pitchers for 2014, while Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter could again be stretched out but the O's are more likely to leave them in the bullpen where they were successful last season.  Britton and Matusz are both out of options and could be trade bait — Britton could be on his last chance in the organization, while the Orioles expected more from Matusz (picked fourth overall in the 2008 draft) by this point in his career.  While Duquette did say he wasn't planning to move any top prospects, the O's already moved one ex-top prospect earlier this year when they dealt Jake Arrieta to the Cubs as part of the Feldman trade.  It wouldn't be a shock to see Britton or Matusz go elsewhere as part of a swap for more proven talent if Baltimore is willing to move on from these young arms. 

While a Tillman/Gonzalez/Chen/Norris rotation is okay and there are a lot of interesting depth arms in the system, it's also basically a stand-pat pitching situation that might not be enough to keep pace in the AL East even if Feldman is re-signed.  One other free agent possibility, however, could be Ricky Nolasco, as the O's explored a deal for the righty last summer.  Nolasco was projected to earn a three-year/$36MM contract according to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, though that prediction was made before Nolasco fell apart in late September and made just one postseason start for L.A.  If his price tag drops enough, Nolasco could again be on the Orioles' radar.

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Quick Hits: Robertson, Dodgers, Tanaka, Orioles

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The Yankees should sign reliever David Robertson to an extension, River Ave Blues' Mike Axisa argues. By signing Robertson now, Axisa argues, the Yankees will get to pay setup man rates for him. If, in the wake of Mariano Rivera's retirement, Robertson takes the Yankees' closer job in 2014 and performs reasonably well, he'll stand to make much more money after the season, when he becomes a free agent. But signing him now could be tricky, Axisa notes, since it will also be clear to Robertson what he stands to gain by closing for a year and then hitting the free agent market. Axisa proposes a three-year, $21MM deal. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • The Dodgers' pursuit of pitcher Masahiro Tanaka appears to be "the most obvious move since Brad Pitt sidled up to Angelina Jolie," writes Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. Dilbeck cites the Dodgers' signings of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Yasiel Puig and Alexander Guerrero as evidence that the team will use its considerable financial heft to pursue the biggest-name international free agents. "We've scouted him a lot, we're very much aware of him," says GM Ned Colletti. "We saw him as recently as two days ago."
  • Pitchers Tim Berry and Chris Jones and catchers Caleb Joseph and Michael Ohlman are all candidates to be added to the Orioles' 40-man roster this offseason, MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski writes. Jones, who spent most of the 2013 season pitching in relief at Triple-A Norfolk, is eligible for minor-league free agency, but Baltimore would like to keep him.

NL Notes: Mozeliak, Mets, Zambrano

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John Mozeliak followed an unusual career path that led him to the Cardinals' GM job, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post writes. Mozeliak's career in baseball began when a connection led to him taking then-Rockies pitcher Bryn Smith on a fly-fishing trip. That led to an invitation to pitch batting practice for the Rockies, and from there, Mozeliak worked his way into baseball operations. He headed to St. Louis in 1995, after Rockies assistant GM Walt Jocketty took the Cardinals' GM job. Mozeliak then took over for Jocketty in 2007 and has since led the Cardinals to one World Series title. Now, of course, they're pursuing a second one. Here are more notes from around the National League.

  • Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon says that his team would have made an offer to Jose Dariel Abreu if he were a corner outfielder rather than a first baseman, Newsday's Marc Carig tweets. The Mets could certainly use a powerful corner outfielder, but they also have little stability at first base, where Ike Davis and Lucas Duda were disappointing last season. Wilpon also told Carig the Mets had a "glut" of first basemen, but none of them performed particularly well last year, perhaps with the exception of depth piece Josh Satin. One wonders why these players might have impeded the Mets from making a major signing.
  • Wilpon says the Mets have received calls from teams trying to trade for a first baseman, tweets Carig.
  • Former Cubs star Carlos Zambrano wants to keep pitching, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports. "He’s playing winter ball and wants to continue his career," says agent Barry Praver. Zambrano, who last appeared in the big leagues in 2012 with the Marlins, pitched in the Phillies system in 2013, but his comeback attempt stalled due to shoulder issues.

AL Notes: Mariners, Twins, White Sox

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The Mariners will interview Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach for their open managerial job, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes. Wallach joins Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon, Giants bench coach Ron Wotus, Athletics bench coach Chip Hale and Padres bench coach Rick Renteria as Mariners candidates, and Heyman notes that there may be others. Wallach has also interviewed for the Tigers' managerial job. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • The Twins remain keenly interested in Korean pitcher Suk-Min Yoon, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. "We've watched him forever," says Twins vice president of player personnel Mike Radcliff. Yoon has battled shoulder issues in 2013, and if the Twins agreed to sign him, they would, of course, want him to take a physical. They would also be much more interested in him as a starter than as a reliever — Yoon made 13 starts in 2013, but also appeared 17 times out of the bullpen.
  • The White Sox have signed Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu, but that doesn't mean Paul Konerko won't return, MLB.com's Scott Merkin reports. "This signing does not preclude us from bringing Paul back," says GM Rick Hahn. "It's October 29. You don't evaluate an Opening Day roster at the end of October." The White Sox plan to talk to Konerko next month.
  • The White Sox's signing of Abreu will likely be their only major free agent signing, Merkin writes. "We're not going to rule out any avenue," says Hahn. Nonethleless, he says, "It's probably more likely that trades are next." If the White Sox do re-sign Konerko, they could deal either Adam Dunn or Jeff Keppinger to make room for him, Merkin says. It's unlikely, however, that either player would generate much trade interest unless the White Sox took on plenty of salary.

Padres Have Interest In Mark Trumbo

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The Padres have interest in Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (on Twitter). The Angels are known to be interested in acquiring pitching for Trumbo, however, and Shaikin notes that San Diego might not be the best match — their collection of young pitching includes several players (Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland, Casey Kelly) who are in various stages of recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Yonder Alonso hit .281/.341/.368 as the Padres' primary first baseman in 2013. Trumbo would likely be an upgrade, although it remains to be seen how his power-dependent game would play in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. Trumbo appears set to make about $4.7MM in 2014, his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Brewers Exercise Norichika Aoki’s Option

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The Brewers have exercised their club option on right fielder Norichika Aoki, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. While previously reported to be worth just $1.5MM, McCalvy reports that the actual total is just under $2MM due to incentives that he reached in 2012-13. Either way, as McCalvy notes, exercising Aoki's option was a no-brainer for Brewers GM Doug Melvin.

Aoki, 32 in January, hit .287/.355/.399 in his first two seasons with the Brew Crew, totaling 18 homers and 50 stolen bases. Aoki originally projected to be a reserve outfielder for the Brewers, but he thrived in an everyday role after Corey Hart moved to first base full-time to replace the injured Mat Gamel in 2012.

The Brewers won the rights to negotiate with Aoki, a former NPB batting champion in Japan, by submitting a $2.5MM posting fee. Aoki then signed a two-year, $2.5MM contract with an option for a third year and incentives that could take the contract's total value to $8.6MM over three years. In hindsight, the move has turned out to be one of baseball's biggest bargains and one of the savviest of Melvin's tenure as GM.

Because Aoki is such a bargain, the emergence of Khris Davis as a potential outfield option alongside Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun has led many to speculate that Aoki could be dealt in the offseason. However, as MLBTR's Edward Creech noted in his recent Offseason Outlook for the Brewers, Melvin seems highly reluctant to deal Aoki.

Rockies Decline Rafael Betancourt’s Option

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The Rockies announced on Twitter that they have declined their half of the $4.25MM mutual option on closer Rafael Betancourt's contract. The news comes as no surprise, as the 38-year-old recenly underwent potentially career-threatening Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

Betancourt pitched to a 4.08 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 28 2/3 innings this season, although that ERA was a noticeably stronger 2.93 prior to his final two outings in 2013. Betancourt missed time with a groin strain and an appendectomy this season, and injured his elbow immediately upon his return from the second DL stint. Betancourt allowed four earned runs over his next two appearances (totaling one inning) before the ligament tear was discovered.

As of late August, the 11-year Major League veteran was hoping to rehab from Tommy John surgery and attempt a comeback, although doing so will mean attempting to resurface in the Majors in 2015 at age 40.

AL West Notes: Astros, Colon, Farquhar

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United States Bankruptcy Judge Marvin Isgur is considering an order to allow the Astros (and the Houston Rockets) to negotiate with other parties to see if another business model with a new partner could make a Houston sports network profitable, according to David Barron of the Houston Chronicle. Those partners include FOX Sports, and Astros owner Jim Crane disclosed in the ongoing bankruptcy proceedings for CSN Houston that he spoke with FOX executives earlier in the year about returning to FOX Sports Southwest. Crane has previously expressed concern about CSN Houston's impact on his team's ability to compete within the division. Here's more out of the AL West…

  • There's mutual interest between the Athletics and Bartolo Colon, agent Adam Katz told Joe Stiglich of CSN California. Colon "loved his time" with the A's and would be open should they wish to make an offer, Stiglich elaborates (Twitter links). Colon recently told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he thinks he can pitch three more seasons.
  • Speaking of Slusser, her latest column has a host of info on the decisions facing the A's early in the offseason. A qualifying offer seems too steep a price for Oakland to offer Colon, though she feels that he's likely to seek a deal similar to the one-year, $15MM contract Hiroki Kuroda signed this past offseason. Echoing earlier reports, Slusser feels that Grant Balfour is likely to leave as a free agent.
  • MLB.com's Greg Johns looks at the unlikely path that right-hander Danny Farquhar took to become the Mariners closer. The 26-year-old went from the Blue Jays to the A's to the Yankees to the Mariners in a span of 12 months and entered 2013 as an afterthought before finishing the regular season with one of the most dominant stretches of any AL reliever this year.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Dodgers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Kershaw easily has the largest projected salary of the 200+ arbitration eligible players.  Furthermore, his projection tops the largest arbitration reward in MLB history, Prince Fielder's $15.5MM in 2011.  Cole Hamels set the record for a pitcher with $15MM in 2012.  We had to invoke the Kimbrel Rule in limiting Kershaw's raise to $6.9MM.  

There seems to be a general feeling that Kershaw has little chance of reaching the open market, because the Dodgers have the money and intent to sign their ace long-term within the next 12 months (and preferably before the 2014 season begins).  The largest contract ever given to a pitcher remains the seven-year, $161MM deal C.C. Sabathia signed with the Yankees nearly five years ago.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported progress in June between the Dodgers and Kershaw on a seven-year deal worth more than $180MM, with other proposals under discussion such as $250MM over 10 years and $300MM over 12 years.  In August, Rosenthal reported that the Dodgers and Kershaw were close to a seven-year, $210MM deal that would have included a player opt-out clause after five years, from which the Dodgers backed off.  This month, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote about a $300MM lifetime contract the Dodgers had offered earlier in the season, perhaps the same one to which Rosenthal referred in June.  Players must file for arbitration on January 14th next year, with figures to be exchanged on the 17th, but I imagine the Dodgers and Kershaw will be willing to talk about a long-term deal up until Opening Day.

Closer Kenley Jansen posted another fine season, though perhaps his first 30-save campaign will come in 2014 assuming he owns the job from the start of the season.  There is no extension model for three-plus closers, so the Dodgers and Jansen would have to forge new territory to get a deal done.

Ellis' production declined from 2012, to .238/.318/.364 in 448 plate appearances.  The team could consider trading Ellis to open up a pursuit of Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Butera, a backup type acquired for depth at the trade deadline, will likely be non-tendered.

The Dodgers picked up Baxter from the Mets on a waiver claim this month, suggesting they'll consider tendering him a contract.  He'll make something around the league minimum, so it's really about how they want to use the roster spot.  Elbert, a 28-year-old lefty reliever, had Tommy John surgery in June and is a non-tender candidate.  Belisario was not particularly good this year, with ERAs around 8.00 in June and September.  He did have a 3.97 ERA overall and the Dodgers liked him enough to use him in the playoffs, so he's probably safe.

Assuming the Dodgers tender contracts to Kershaw, Jansen, Ellis, Belisario, and Baxter, they're looking at an estimated $29MM for five arbitration eligible players.

AL Central Notes: Cabrera, Konerko, Abreu, Twins

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The Tigers announced today that Miguel Cabrera underwent successful core muscle repair surgery (a.k.a. sports hernia surgery) this morning. The operation was performed by Dr. Bill Meyers in Phialdelphia, and Cabrera's timetable for recovery is expected to be six to eight weeks. The Tigers anticipate that their perennial MVP candidate will be healthy in time for Spring Training. Here's more out of the AL Central…

  • At today's press conference to announce the signing of Jose Dariel Abreu, White Sox general manager flatly said that the Abreu signing does not preclude the team from bringing back Paul Konerko in 2014. Hahn added that he spoke with Konerko about the potential of signing Abreu back in September, and Konerko was his first call after they had officially reached an agreement with Abreu.
  • Also from the conference, Abreu himself stated (through his translator) that the history of Cuban players finding success in the White Sox organization was an important element for him in choosing to sign with the Sox.
  • Abreu's agent, Barry Praver, tells Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago that eight teams made offers to his client, and five of the offers hit $60MM (Twitter link). It's already been reported that the Rockies were surprise contenders, offering $63MM over six years.
  • Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press looks at the Twins recent hiring of Larry Corrigan, noting that he is the latest of GM Terry Ryan's former associates to be brought back into the fold. Corrigan had served as a Major League special assignment scout for the Angels but declined a one-year extension, according to Berardino. Ryan has also brought former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky back to the Minnesota front office as a special assistant. The three men were at the helm for the Twins from 1995-2005 and played a large role in building the successful core that brought the Twins to prominence in the 2000s. Corrigan has spent more than two decades with the Twins in the past, signing both Torii Hunter and LaTroy Hawkins.

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