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AL Notes: Oh, Yankees, Twins, Martinez

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The Yankees are among the teams interested in Korean pitcher Seung-Hwan Oh, the New York Post's George A. King III writes. Oh, a reliever, must go through the posting process, which begins in November. The 5'10, 31-year-old righty throws a 94-96 MPH fastball and a splitter. He pitched in 51 2/3 innings for the Samsung Lions in 2013, with a 1.74 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Here are more notes from around the AL.

  • Twins GM Terry Ryan says his team would give up its 2014 second-round pick to sign a free agent who received a qualifying offer, 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson writes (on Twitter). The Twins' first-rounder, at No. 5 overall, is protected. Still, Wolfson says it seems doubtful that the Twins would actually sign such a free agent, although Ervin Santana might be a possibility.
  • Ryan also says the free-agent pitching market will be "very competitive," Wolfson tweets. "You’ll probably be able to get one of them, hopefully," Ryan says. Minnesota's 5.26 rotation ERA in 2013 was easily the worst in the American League, with Scott Diamond, Pedro Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey, among others, struggling badly.
  • Pedro Martinez reiterates he left the Red Sox for the Mets prior to the 2005 season because the Red Sox refused to offer a contract of significant length, WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes (Twitter links). Martinez wanted a deal with the Red Sox for three years, but Boston only offered two, with the possibility of voiding the second year if Martinez got hurt. The Mets gave Martinez four years and $54MM.

NL Notes: Marlins, Marrero, Lincecum

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Despite a 100-loss season in 2013 and the departure of president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest, Marlins president David Samson says the team will not lose 100 games again in 2014, Christina De Nicola of FOX Sports Florida reports. "I promise you this: We're not going to lose 100 games next year. Not close," says Samson, who also praises Michael Hill, who was promoted to president of baseball operations after Beinfest's departure, and new GM Dan Jennings. "Mike Hill and Dan Jennings are really tremendous heads of baseball organizations, and they're going to work really well together to help us win," Samson says. Here are more notes from around the National League.

  • The Nationals just outrighted former first-round pick Chris Marrero, but at least one scout believes he still has potential, writes the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore (on Twitter). "I would not give up on Marrero. He can still hit. Just needs the right opportunity with right team, preferably in AL," the scout says. Marrero hit .270/.331/.402 for Triple-A Syracuse this season.
  • The Giants had a number of reasons for giving Tim Lincecum a two-year, $35MM contract this week, assistant GM Bobby Evans tells the New York Post's Joel Sherman. The Giants thought Lincecum would have a number of suitors on the free agent market, perhaps including the Mets and Yankees. Also, with Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain as the only sure things in their 2014 rotation, the Giants did not want to have to piece together three-fifths of a rotation this offseason. Finally, the Giants feel that Lincecum's upside would have been hard to replace elsewhere on the free agent market.

Nationals Outright Chris Marrero

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Here are today's outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…

  • The Nationals announced that they have outrighted first baseman Chris Marrero to Triple-A, thereby removing him from their 40-man roster. The Nats selected the now-25-year-old Marrero 15th overall in the 2006 draft, but he's hit just .232/.256/.272 for their big league club in 133 plate appearances. He showed power early on in his minor league career, but that has faded, as evidenced by his .281/.353/.413 and 25 homers in 1140 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. As CSNWashington's Mark Zuckerman points out on Twitter, Marrero will be a free agent after the World Series, ending his tenure with the team that drafted him.
  • As can be seen in MLBTR's DFA Tracker, the only players that are currently in DFA limbo are Pedro Beato of the Red Sox and Peter Moylan of the Dodgers.

Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Royals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

In Holland, Hochevar, Collins, and Crow, four mainstays of the Royals' excellent bullpen are arbitration eligible.  Holland was flat-out dominant, earning an All-Star nod while posting a 1.21 ERA with 47 saves and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings.  With a few more seasons near that level, he could get expensive in a hurry.  There aren't any recent closers who signed extensions with three years of service, but Brian Wilson received about $19.5MM for his three arbitration years.  Hochevar finally found his calling in the bullpen and was almost as good as Holland.  While he's approaching the market price for a setup man, keeping him in front of Holland and shortening games to seven innings again next year is surely appealing to the Royals.  

Collins and Crow had problems with free passes and scuffled at times in 2013, but are penciled into next year's pen as well.  Collins is a southpaw, but otherwise the Royals are deep in right-handed relief and may be able to use part of the surplus in a trade.

Mendoza won the Royals' fifth starter job out of Spring Training, but was demoted to the bullpen in July.  He was used sparingly in a mop-up role and was hit hard in his six relief appearances to close out the season.  A non-tender is possible despite his low projected salary, or he could be traded.  Paulino underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2012, allowing the Royals to pull off the rare salary decrease in arbitration.  His rehab efforts this year were cut short due to a cyst in his shoulder, on which he had surgery in September.  The Royals will be able to bring him back one more time for around the same salary, and if his recovery is going well, it's probably worth doing.

After a lousy 2012, Hosmer bounced back with a strong campaign just in time for the first of four potential arbitration years.  I'd suggest an Allen Craig or Billy Butler type of extension, but Hosmer is represented by Scott Boras, and he's never done that type of deal.  Elsewhere among the Royals' position players, Bonifacio and Maxwell will have roles on next year's team, with strong showings after coming over in summer trades.

Though they would be cheap to retain, Getz, Hayes, and Kottaras are non-tender candidates.  Getz won the Royals' starting second base job out of Spring Training, but was optioned to Triple-A in June and missed time with a knee injury upon his return to the Majors.  Hayes, a November waiver claim from the Marlins, was on and off the 40-man roster this year and was third on the Royals' catching depth chart.  Kottaras, a January waiver claim from the Athletics, won the backup catcher job out of camp and held it for the season.  It seems likely Hayes will lose his 40-man spot again, while Kottaras may stay on as Salvador Perez's backup unless the Royals decide they need an upgrade.

Assuming the Royals tender contracts to Hochevar, Holland, Hosmer, Bonifacio, Paulino, Crow, Kottaras, Maxwell, and Collins, they're looking at an estimated $24.35MM for nine arbitration eligible players. 

Free Agent Profile: Shin-Soo Choo

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Shin-Soo Choo's .423 on-base percentage ranked fourth in all of baseball this year, and easily topped Robinson Cano for the best among all free agents.  The 31-year-old South Korea native hits free agency at an ideal time, and ranks third overall on our Free Agent Power Rankings.

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Pros/Strengths

Choo was the quintessential leadoff man for the Reds this year, parlaying a career-best 15.7% walk rate and a career-high 26 times hit by a pitch into that fantastic OBP.  Aside from an injury-marred 2011 season, Choo has never posted an OBP below .373 in a full campaign, regularly tallying 160+ hits, 70+ walks, and around 15 HBPs.  The average outfielder posted a .323 OBP this year, by comparison.  Choo has batted .284 over the past two seasons and has consistently hit for average.  He also hit 21 home runs this year, the third time in his career he's hit at least 20.  Assuming options are picked up on Coco Crisp and Adam Lind, only seven free agents hit more homers than Choo.

Choo has generally been quite durable outside of 2011, regularly playing in 150+ games.  He showed himself as a team player this year in accepting a center field assignment from the Reds, never having played the position regularly in the Majors.

Choo's baseball card numbers were excellent this year, with 107 runs scored, 21 home runs, and 20 stolen bases.  It was the third 20/20 season of his career, so he can be a power/speed threat.

Weaknesses/Cons

Choo struggles against left-handed pitching, with a .207/.332/.276 line in 463 plate appearances since 2012.  If the situation worsens, a platoon could be in the cards in the latter half of his contract.

Though Choo has stolen 41 bases over the past two seasons, he's also been caught 18 times.  That 69% success rate suggests he should get the green light less often.  Overall, his baserunning has been a mild negative in each of the past two seasons.

Choo's defense has been a large detriment in recent years, whether in his natural right field in 2012 or in center field in 2013.  He had a fine offensive season in 2012, but his defense knocked his FanGraphs wins above replacement down to 2.4.  Overall, that's solid but not elite performance, and it stands to reason that Choo's defense could become an even bigger problem over the next four or five years.  Agent Scott Boras disagrees, telling Jon Heyman of CBS Sports Choo is a "Gold Glove type defender" in right field.

Signing Choo will require sacrificing a draft pick, as he's expected to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Reds.

I don't generally consider All-Star appearances as a great barometer for a player's abilities, especially with a player with Choo's skillset.  But, it should be noted that Choo has never made an All-Star team.

Personal

Choo resides with his wife, two sons, and daugther in Arizona.  He is the all-time batting leader from Korea in all notable categories, and is a celebrity there.  He was known as one of the Indians' hardest workers, wrote Amy K. Nelson for ESPN in 2009.  In 2010, he helped Korea to the gold medal in the Asian Games, earning exemption from a mandatory two-year military stint.  On the negative side, Choo disappointed the Indians several months later with a DUI that included a blood-alcohol level of .201.  Teammate Jack Hannahan commented after Choo's apology, "He's a great guy and a great teammate.  Choo's a big leader on this team. He's tough as nails. He's being a man about it and accepting it." 

Market

Choo is among the top free agent outfielders, and is joined by Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Marlon Byrd, and Nelson Cruz.  "There are so many teams that need a leadoff hitter," Boras told Heyman in September.  The general belief is that the Reds won't be able to afford Choo, while the Cubs, Mets, Astros, and Yankees have been named early as likely suitors.  The Mets' first-round pick is protected, and while they might be willing to let their second-round pick go to sign Choo, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com says they "are not believed to be willing to give more than a Michael Bourn-type contract — four years."  The Cubs may be wary of surrendering their second-round pick, plus the outfield is one of their farm system's biggest strengths.  The Astros connection seems speculative at best, while the Yankees seem like a viable contender for Choo.  

The Mariners, Rangers, Royals, Pirates, and Orioles also could be in the market for a corner outfielder this offseason, but not necessarily at top of the market money.

Expected Contract

Boras is the game's toughest negotiator and one of its biggest talkers.  Asked by Heyman about one GM's $100MM prediction, Boras replied, "As a custom of the industry, prognostications by executives this time of year are dramatically divergent from the real market.  I don't think anyone correctly predicted what Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford got."  Boras also took issue with the idea of Choo being limited to five years.

A five-year deal would cover Choo's age 31-35 seasons, and those are hard enough to come by for position players.  In the last five years, we've seen multiyear free agent deals for Josh Hamilton (5), B.J. Upton (5), Albert Pujols (10), Prince Fielder (9), Jose Reyes (6), Crawford (7), Werth (7), Adrian Beltre (5), Matt Holliday (7), and Mark Teixeira (8).  We've seen many more on the extension front, with Hunter Pence's five-year deal the most relevant and recent comparable for Choo.  Boras deserves credit for Werth's contract, but it was an outlier rather than a model, especially since no other team was clearly offering even five years.  Crawford, Upton, and Reyes were significantly younger, with the latter two playing premium positions.  Boras does not always succeed in his contractual goals, failing to secure a fifth guaranteed year for Michael Bourn last winter.

With Choo, I can see a lot of teams willing to offer four years, a handful willing to offer five, and perhaps one willing to guarantee six.  The Pence contract seems to raise the bar for Choo, who I ultimately have signing a six-year, $100MM deal.  At a reasonable $16.67MM AAV, such a deal may appeal to teams with luxury tax concerns.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Angels are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Trumbo projects for a healthy salary his first time through arbitration, with career numbers of 95 home runs and 284 RBI and a platform year with 34 homers and 100 knocked in.  His flaw is a .299 career on-base percentage, which should improve if he holds onto gains in his walk rate and his batting average recovers.  There is value in a player with Trumbo's profile, especially at $4.7MM.  I wouldn't be too aggressive about a long-term deal, though, and a healthy Albert Pujols would give the Angels the depth to consider trading Trumbo.

Bourjos is another trade candidate.  This year a hamstring injury and wrist fracture each cost him over a month, with September wrist surgery ending his season.  Angels GM Jerry Dipoto showed faith in Bourjos as his starting center fielder entering the season, and if Trumbo, Pujols, and Josh Hamilton are rotated through the designated hitter spot in 2014, there's room for everyone to start.  On the other hand, MVP candidate Mike Trout is more than capable of handling center, making a Bourjos trade possible.  Bourjos' value is at a low point after the injuries limited him to just 55 games in 2013, but he's also quite affordable his first time through arbitration and should remain cheap beyond 2014.

Frieri notched 37 saves in 2013, so he'll get paid through arbitration despite allowing 11 home runs with a 3.80 ERA.  Agents of relievers like Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Brian Wilson are surely hoping the Angels will throw some money at the ninth inning this winter, pushing Frieri to a setup role.  Regardless, he's worth retaining at his projected salary.

The Angels' bullpen also includes arbitration eligible relievers Jepsen and Gutierrez.  Jepsen, 29, averaged almost 96 miles per hour on his fastball and whiffed a batter per inning in 2013.  He also allowed 41 hits in 36 innings, missing time due to a lat strain and emergency appendectomy.  With a $1.4MM projection, he's worth retaining.  Gutierrez, another hard thrower, won a spot in the Royals' bullpen out of Spring Training but was designated for assignment in July.  The Angels added him on a waiver claim, and he posted a 5.19 ERA for them in 26 innings despite striking out 9.7 per nine innings.  His spot on the 40-man roster seems tenuous, even with a low projected salary.

Williams was again a useful swingman, but with his salary projected to nearly double, the Angels might consider non-tendering him and using the funds elsewhere.  Hanson is a certain non-tender, after missing significant time due to a personal matter, hitting the DL for a forearm strain, and getting a demotion to Triple-A.  At just 27 years old, Hanson's former promise may earn him a big league contract on the free agent market, if his health checks out.

With two years and 122 days of Major League service, Nelson represents the unofficial Super Two cutoff for 2013.  With a projected salary only $500K over the league minimum, that's not a big factor in the Angels' tender decision.  Nelson joined the Angels from the Yankees on a May 18th waiver claim, but was designated for assignment less than a month later.  He remained in the organization after accepting an outright assignment, and after finding his way back to the bigs hit the DL for a hamstring injury.  Expect him to be cut loose by the Angels.

If the Angels tender contracts to Trumbo, Frieri, Jepsen, and Bourjos, they're looking at a projected $10.6MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Attempting A Model For Projecting Free Agent Starting Pitcher Salaries

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Some ideas are better in theory than in practice. I was tasked a while back by MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes to come up with a free agent salary system similar to the one Matt Swartz created for arbitration salaries. To put it simply, it was a failure. After coming to a agreement, Tim and I decided to scrap the idea and go our separate ways…until about a week ago when I decided to look at the problem a different way.

By using a weighting of similar production and age, a player's contract can be estimated by using a few comparable contracts. It is way too close to the hot stove season to create an estimate for all players, but I was able to scrap together a list starting pitcher salary estimates.

Below are my model's projected salaries using the top 21 free agent pitchers (ignoring Masahiro Tanaka and the recently extended Tim Lincecum). Also, the expected contracts from MLBTR's free agent profiles were added if one has been given.

Note: The salaries are based on inflation-adjusted 2013 salaries. If salaries increase 10% across the board this offseason, the values need to be adjusted accordingly. A confidence value is added. The closer the value is to 0, the more pitchers are similar in production to the pitcher in question.

Similarity Projections Expected Contract
Name Years Total Salary ($M) Confidence (0 is best) Years Total Salary ($M)
Ricky Nolasco 2.6 $40.5 14 3 $36
Ubaldo Jimenez 2.7 $39.6 28 3 $39
A.J. Burnett 1.9 $24.3 36 1 $12
Bronson Arroyo 1.8 $23.4 28 2 $24
Hiroki Kuroda 1.6 $21.2 33 1 $16
Tim Hudson 1.6 $17.3 62 1 $9
Paul Maholm 1.7 $15.2 46 1 $7
Roberto Hernandez 1.5 $10.8 57 1 $5
Scott Feldman 1.2 $7.9 99 2 $17
Scott Kazmir 1.2 $5.7 417 2 $16
Josh Johnson 1.0 $2.2 68 1 $8
Total 18.7 $208.1 18 $189
Ervin Santana 2.5 $36.5 17
Dan Haren 2.3 $29.5 24
Jason Vargas 1.7 $17.9 34
Chris Capuano 1.5 $14.0 64
Bartolo Colon 1.4 $12.2 159
Matt Garza 1.6 $10.7 22
Phil Hughes 1.3 $8.1 67
Jason Hammel 1.4 $7.3 21
Wandy Rodriguez 1.1 $5.7 90
Roy Halladay 1.0 $4.2 107

Overall, the values hold up decently. The Similarity Projections estimate almost the same length in contracts, but thinks about $20M more will be spent. Also, with the the years in decimal format, it can be seen how uncertain a player may be in getting a certain number of years on his deal. For example, I have Tim Hudson at 1.6 years and $17.3M. Adjusting those values to one year, he gets $10.8M. It would increase to $21.6M for two years.

Individually, nothing seems completely out of whack. The one contract with the largest disagreement so far is Scott Kazmir's. Basically, there aren't many pitchers that don't pitch at all for two straight seasons and then come back to post an ERA near 4.00. The three most similar pitchers were Chris Capuano (2011), Jake Westbrook (2011) and Carl Pavano (2010). The trio averaged 155 innings in their comeback season and only 26 innings in the two seasons before their comeback. While I used more than three samples for the above value, the three averaged a salary of $9.4MM for 1.3 years (or adjusted to $7.3M for one season or $14.5M for two seasons).

Also, Roy Halladay's projected salary seems a bit out of place, but not many pitchers his age have gotten huge guarantees after the season he had last year. One of the top comparable contracts was the one Roy Oswalt signed in in 2012 at $5MM. Oswalt was younger and was coming off a better season.

The elephant in the room is Matt Garza. Demand has been limited in the past for starters who have averaged only 150 innings over the past three seasons. Unreliable pitchers have unreliable contracts. In terms of innings total, he is getting lumped in with the like of Shaun Marcum and Francisco Liriano. For example, last season Liriano had thrown 480 innings combined in the three previous seasons, with a noticeably worse ERA, but ended up with only a guaranteed 1-year deal for only 1MM. However, prior to his most recent contract, Jorge De La Rosa had similar numbers and received a three-year, $32MM deal. Right now, I think expectations may be a bit high on Garza's salary, since teams are willing to pay more for a reliable starter.

The model was just a year off with Lincecum, predicting $47.4MM over 2.9 years. That is equivalent to a a two-year, $32.7MM contract. The Lincecum deal is the first salary to determine how much salary inflation there is this season. His two-year, $35MM deal works out to 7% inflation. It is way too early to set an exact inflation amount, but it is something to keep an eye on.

The best part about this finding is that we should be able to complete the projection model well in advance of free agency next season, which could lead to a greater number of predictions. At the very least, the starting pitcher salaries that are handed out this offseason should serve as a reference point for future studies that will allow us to better set expectations for the free agent market.

Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Orioles are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Davis put together a monster, MVP-caliber season: .286 average, 53 home runs, 138 RBI, and 103 runs scored as the Orioles' first baseman.  It wasn't from completely out of nowhere, as he hit 33 home runs in 2012.  Only 16 other players in baseball history have hit as many home runs in a season, and Davis led MLB in RBI this year as well.  

This year Matt and I created what we call the Kimbrel Rule in our arbitration projections: a player's raise cannot be more than $1MM more than the previous record raise.  Normally Davis' stats would justify a salary close to $11MM, meaning a raise of $7.5MM.  The largest raise on record we've found is Jacoby Ellsbury's $5.65MM bump, so with our new rule we're capping Davis' raise at $6.65MM to put him at $9.95MM.  We'll call it an even $10MM, since that's a nice benchmark for agent Scott Boras.  Can Boras get there?  After hitting 54 home runs in 2010, Jose Bautista sought an $8.1MM raise in arbitration, with the Blue Jays countering at $5.2MM for a midpoint raise of $6.65MM, exactly where we've capped Davis.  Bautista ultimately signed a five-year, $65MM deal instead, which I don't think is going to happen with Davis and Boras.  Boras has done some two-year arbitration year deals, which is more feasible if the Orioles want to avoid the arbitration process after 2014.

On the strength of a second consecutive 50 save season, closer Jim Johnson is due a large raise as well.  This one is more difficult to stomach, as Johnson's salary would exceed our predicted average annual value of free agent closers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, and approach that of an elite closer in Joe Nathan.  Johnson led MLB in saves in 2012 and tied for the lead in 2013, but he also led MLB in save opportunities each year.  This year, in particular, his 84.7% success rate was pedestrian, ranking 23rd among those with at least 15 opportunities.  There's an argument to be made that if Kevin Gregg, Brad Ziegler, or Ernesto Frieri received 59 opportunities this year, they would have saved 50 games as well.

That's not to say Johnson is a bad reliever — his ERA has been under 3.00 in each of the past three seasons, he maintains a low walk rate, and he gets tons of groundballs.  Though he blew nine saves in 2013, any team would be happy to have him in their bullpen in a late inning role.  The problem is the salary inflation brought about by saving 101 games over the last two seasons.  This doesn't seem to concern Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com in September the O's will tender Johnson a contract and intend to bring him back in 2014.  "He's established himself as one of the top closers in the game," explained Duquette, and I suppose a one-year, high-salary deal is more favorable than the three years he might get on the open market.

Wieters is another big Boras case, a year after beating our most aggressive salary projection by almost 20%.  The Orioles offered an extension of at least five years around April, but it seems to have fallen short of the player's requirements.  Though his counting stats and durability were good in 2013, Wieters' already-low batting average took a dip, as did his walk rate.  The result was an unimpressive .287 on-base percentage.  Still, Wieters is in line for another solid raise, with free agency looming after 2015.  It might be time to consider a trade, if only the Orioles had a ready replacement behind the dish.

Norris, acquired from Houston at the trade deadline, bumped his strikeout rate significantly with Baltimore but also saw his rates of walks, home runs, hits allowed, and ERA rise.  He's still penciled in for a 2014 rotation spot.  Hunter's first full year in relief went well, with 21 holds.  He'll be joined again in the bullpen by Matusz and Patton, who remain affordable.

The Orioles removed Pearce from their 40-man roster in December, and he rejoined the club on a minor league deal and made the team out of Spring Training.  He had two DL stints for a wrist injury, but was otherwise solid with a .261/.362/.420 line in 138 plate appearances.  I think he'll stick around. 

Reimold, Dickerson, and Dan Johnson are non-tender candidates.  Reimold has been limited to 56 games over the last two seasons due to neck issues.  Dickerson joined the big club in April after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.  He was designated for assignment in July and accepted an outright assignment, getting his 40-man roster spot back in September.  Johnson spent most of the year with the Yankees' Triple-A club, landing a minor league deal with the Orioles in late August and later getting into three September games for the Major League team.

If the Orioles tender contracts to Jim Johnson, Davis, Wieters, Norris, Hunter, Matusz, Patton and Pearce, they're looking at an estimated $41.2MM for eight arbitration eligible players. 

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim

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The Angels came into this season with extremely high hopes but they stumbled badly out of the gate – dropping 27 of their first 42 games – and never recovered.  This season, owner Arte Moreno wants to get his money's worth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

Jason Vargas

The Angels would love nothing more than to make their first order of business a lengthy extension for star Mike Trout, but that's probably not in the cards thanks to the hefty contracts given to Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and others.  The collective bargaining agreement calls for deals to be calculated by their average annual value, meaning that the Angels couldn't skirt the luxury tax with a backloaded pact.  

The Angels have their top three starters taken care of, but beyond that they've got question marks galore and a major need for reinforcements.  Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson will be joined at the top of the rotation by Garrett Richards, who broke out in a big way in 2013.  The No. 4 starter could be filled by Jason Vargas, if he's re-signed, but that's far from a given.  The Halos are unlikely to extend him the one-year, $14MM qualifying offer as it would zap most of their available money.  Vargas posted a 4.01 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 143 2/3 innings in 2013 and missed a good amount of time due to a blood clotting issue.

Even if Vargas does return, the Halos will search far and wide for starting pitching depth after being ravaged by injuries in 2013.  Jerome Williams and Tommy Hanson are both arbitration eligible and both could be non-tendered by the club this winter.  Joe Blanton, who is owed $8.5MM over the next two years, could be released before Opening Day.  Even if he's back, the Angels certainly won't be counting on a guy who posted a 6.04 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 20 starts and eight relief appearances.  Unfortunately for the Angels, they won't have a ton of money to spend as they will try and be mindful of the $189MM luxury tax threshold.  Starting pitchers that might fit into their budget include Roberto Hernandez and Chris Capuano.  Looking a notch below, Jeff Karstens and Chad Gaudin are on the open market and can be used as relievers/spot starters.  The Angels want to lock down a quality starting five, but they'll make an effort to have at least a couple of guys beyond that who can step in if the injury bug bites again.

The Angels' bullpen was pretty bad in 2013 – their collective 4.12 ERA was the fifth-worst in the majors – but they turned things around late in the season and showed what they are capable of when everything is clicking.  They figured to get solid production out of their pen heading the season, but injuries to left-hander Sean Burnett and Ryan Madson proved to be devastating.  Burnett will be back in the fold in 2014 to lend support to closer Ernesto Frieri along with guys like Michael Kohn, Dane De La Rosa, Kevin Jepsen (if he's tendered an offer), J.C. Gutierrez (ditto), and Cory Rasmus.  The Angels could look into affordable relievers like Chad Qualls and Matt Lindstrom (if his option is declined) to ensure that next season won't be a repeat of 2013 for the bullpen.  If they want to pair Burnett with an inexpensive second left-hander, southpaw Mike Gonzalez is out there.

The Angels have several attractive assets but the most likely to get moved is second baseman Howie Kendrick.  The veteran was dangled to clubs before the trade deadline this year but GM Jerry Dipoto didn't get any offers worth taking.  Moving Kendrick becomes easier this offseason – his no-trade list shrivels from a dozen teams to just six.  With $18.85MM owed to him over the next two seasons, Kendrick isn't the cheapest second baseman out there, but there are definitely clubs that are looking for answers at the position.  The Royals need help at second base and GM Dayton Moore figures to make at least a couple phone calls to the west coast.  The Orioles will also be in the market for a second baseman if they don't re-sign veteran Brian Roberts.  The Halos can move Kendrick for some arms and get by with Grant Green in his place.

The Blue Jays have interest in catchers Hank Conger and Chris Iannetta, according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, and Toronto has already reached out to the Halos to get the conversation started.  Moving Iannetta ($10.5MM through 2015) would certainly free up some cash and the Angels could even kill two birds with one stone if they're dealing with the Blue Jays, who are in need of a second baseman.  

They''ll find an especially robust market if they are willing to move shortstop Erick Aybar, but all indications are that they're resistant to that idea.  Moving Kendrick is doable because they can use Green in his stead, but they feel that replacing Aybar would be trickier since they don't have anyone in-house to take his spot.  The Cardinals came calling this summer when they were looking for an upgrade over Pete Kozma, but talks petered out quickly when the Angels asked for top prospects Michael Wacha or Carlos Martinez.  

Mark Trumbo could bring the club a nice pitching haul if they decide to move him.  The Halos fielded calls from the Mariners, Pirates, and Royals in July and the Marlins showed their fondness for him last December.  The alternative to parting with Trumbo's big bat could be trading center fielder Peter Bourjos.  While the defensively-sharp 26-year-old probably wouldn't bring in the same kind of return as Trumbo, he definitely has value.  Bourjos will be under team control for the next three years and he figures to stay affordable since his skill set isn't rewarded all that well in arbitration.  Freeing up center field for Mike Trout could also help the club in their bid to lock him up long-term.

Third base is in flux now that Alberto Callaspo is out of the picture.  Green is a candidate to be the full-time guy there, but if Kendrick goes then there's going to be a hole at one position or the other.  Luis Jimenez (.260/.291/.317 in 34 games in 2013) and Chris Nelson (.227/.273/.327 for three teams in '13; possible non-tender candidate)  could also take the reins, but neither one is particularly inspiring.  But, once again, the team's budget constraints means that finding an outside solution will be difficult.

Arte Moreno has spent major money over the last two winters to try and construct a powerhouse team in the AL West.  This year, he'll have to do the best he can with limited resources.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Giants, Mattingly, Lincecum

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Since Dodgers ownership clearly doesn't trust manager Don Mattingly, they should either fire him or trade him to one of the four clubs with managerial vacancies, opines Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. L.A. may or may not find a taker for Mattingly. Even though he has fans in the Nats front office, Rosenthal writes that the general perception is that he's not the best in-game manager.Here's the latest from the NL West..

  • Mattingly intends to honor the final year of his contract as manager with the Dodgers, his agent told Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com.  Furthermore, there is renewed hope on both sides that he will continue on beyond 2012, according to sources with knowledge of the situation.  Agent Ray Schulte said he expects to meet with team president Stan Kasten in the next "few days."
  • Mattingly still hasn't heard from Kasten since the season ended and is waiting to meet with him, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.  Meanwhile, the skipper is still looking for a multi-year deal (link).
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post spoke with Giants assistant GM Bobby Evans about the club's two-year, $35MM extension for Tim Lincecum.  Evans broke down his reasons for giving The Freak such a hefty deal and pointed out that if the club retained him with the qualifying offer both this year and next year, the total amount would have been roughly $29MM, not far off from what they gave him.  
  • Ray Ratto of CSNBayArea.com wonders if Lincecum's lucrative new deal is a baseball or a marketing decision.  In all likelihood, it was a little from column A and a little from column B as the Giants legitimately needed to fortify the back-end of their rotation this winter.

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