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Minor Moves: Mitch Lively, Rick VandenHurk

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Here are Friday’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Nationals have inked righty Mitch Lively to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, the club announced on Twitter. Washington also made several other previously-reported signings official. Lively, 29, had pitched exclusively in relief as a professional before converting to the rotation in 2013. He joined the Nationals in the middle of last year after opting out of his deal with the Giants.
  • Former Marlins right-hander Rick VandenHurk has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced (Japanese link). Though VandenHurk’s big league career never took off, the Dutch hurler has a solid Triple-A track record and even more impressive numbers from a recent stint in the hitter-friendly Korea Baseball Organization. The 29-year-old VandenHurk has pitched to a 3.55 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 296 1/3 innings with KBO’s Samsung Lions over the past two seasons. He led the KBO with a 3.18 ERA in 2014, averaging 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Free Agent Faceoff: K-Rod vs. Soriano vs. Janssen

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Among the remaining free agents on the open market, only three held down a ninth-inning job for a significant portion of the season: Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano and Casey Janssen. The trio is similar in that each has a history of pitching in the ninth inning, each is in his mid-30s and each succeeds despite lacking an overpowering heater. Let’s take a bit of a closer look at each.

Rodriguez’s relative youth may surprise some; he’ll turn 33 in January. It may feel like he should be in his upper 30s, but that comes with the territory when you cut your teeth as a 20-year-old in the midst of a World Series run. K-Rod’s ERA has been 3.04 or lower in four of the past five seasons (a 4.38 in 2012 being the lone exception), and it has, in fact, been 3.04 or better in all but two of his 13 big league seasons. fWAR was down on K-Rod quite a bit this season, as his FIP of 4.50 was rather pedestrian. However, that number doesn’t account for his eye-popping 23.3 percent homer-to-flyball ratio. Rodriguez’s career mark in that field is 9.9 percent, and even if he’s more homer-prone now (and the past three seasons suggest he might be), it can be reasonably expected for his HR/FB to drop by as much as 10 percentage points. xFIP normalizes HR/FB when projecting a 2.91 ERA for Rodriguez, and even if the true talent level is something a bit higher, Rodriguez would have value. He’s the youngest of the three relievers in question and also had the best ground-ball rate (43.9 percent) in 2014.

Soriano is the elder statesman of this group at the age of 35. He, too, has just one ERA blemish under his belt over the past five seasons — a 4.12 mark in an injury-shortened season with the 2011 Yankees. Over the past three seasons he has a 2.84 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Soriano throws the hardest of this bunch (91.5 mph average fastball in 2014) and was having far and away the best season of the group as of mid-August. Soriano’s ERA was under 2.00 entering play on Aug. 15, but he limped to the finish line, allowing 12 runs in 14 2/3 innings over his final 16 games. While that offers cause for concern, some clubs may just write it off as poor luck (he did have a .367 BABIP in that stretch).

Janssen, who turned 33 in September, was in the midst of a characteristically strong season when he caught a violent case of food poisoning. He reportedly lost eight pounds within a day’s time and was never fully recovered, which was a contributing factor to his 6.46 second-half ERA. Even when Janssen was healthy, his K/9 rate was down this season, however, and he does throw the slowest of this trio. However, Janssen has also shown the best command of this group in recent seasons, and he’s missed plenty of bats in previous years. Plus, his recent trials have come in the AL East, whereas Soriano and Rodriguez have both worked in the National League in recent years.

All three of these relievers could help a bullpen, but it doesn’t seem that all three will end up with a closer’s job. Clearly, this post is just a mere glimpse into each reliever’s profile, so feel free to do a bit more of your own research before answering…

Astros Outright Darin Downs

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The Astros announced that they’ve outrighted left-hander Darin Downs to Triple-A after he cleared waivers. Additionally, Gregorio Petit, who was outrighted earlier this week, has accepted his assignment to Triple-A rather than electing free agency. Both will be invited to big league Spring Training. Houston’s 40-man roster is currently at 39 players.

Downs, who turns 30 today, worked to a 5.45 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 34 2/3 innings for Houston this past season. Downs is typically excellent against fellow left-handers, and while he held them to a .203 average in 2014, he also yielded a .337 OBP and .333 slugging percentage against them. However, his overall career numbers versus left-handed hitters remain impressive: a .202/.291/.310 batting line in 189 plate appearances.

East Notes: Clevenger, Hamels, Zobrist, Asdrubal, Nats

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The Orioles’ waiver claim of Ryan Lavarnway adds a fifth catcher to the 40-man roster and further clouds the future of fellow backstop Steve Clevenger, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Clevenger’s agent, Josh Kusnick, spoke with Kubatko about his client’s role in Baltimore, noting that while he’s been told Clevenger can win the backup catching job in Spring Training, it’s difficult to see happening after he was passed over last season. Clevenger hit .225/.289/.337 in a small sample of Major League plate appearances last year but slashed a much stronger .305/.366/.389 in 64 Triple-A games. Given the amount of clubs needing depth at catcher, I’d imagine that Clevenger would have interest to other teams.

Here’s more from baseball’s Eastern divisions…

  • In his latest column, Peter Gammons takes a look back at the recent history of trades of ace-caliber pitchers and notes that there’s very little certainty that the Phillies would receive a franchise-altering package for Cole Hamels. Trades of pitchers such as Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee have not reaped many benefits, while others such as the Johan Santana trade netted one All-Star caliber player (Carlos Gomez) who didn’t break out until he was traded to a third team.
  • Also in Gammons’ piece, he writes that many GMs believe the Giants will eventually trade a prospect package to the Rays to land Ben Zobrist.
  • MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweeted earlier this week that the Yankees don’t appear to be in on Asdrubal Cabrera at this time and instead appear to be heading toward a Spring Training battle between prospects Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela in addition to minor league signees Nick Noonan and Cole Figueroa.
  • In addition to a very heartfelt holiday wish to all of his readers, Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com penned an excellent look at the Nationals’ roster yesterday and ran down three players that he feels could be on the move before Opening Day. While Kerzel doesn’t think all three of Danny Espinosa, Tyler Moore and Tyler Clippard will be dealt, he can envision at least one of the three moving. Espinosa’s name is still popular in trade talks, Kerzel hears, so he could be shipped elsewhere if the Nats can acquire another second base option (I’d imagine today’s signing of Dan Uggla is unrelated to Espinosa’s availability, personally). Moore is a popular name when GM Mike Rizzo chats with AL clubs, as he could be a platoon DH/first baseman/outfielder. Clippard’s projected $9.3MM salary may simply be more than the Nats care to spend on a setup ace, and teams like the Blue Jays are known to be looking for a closer, Kerzel points out. Clippard was among the Nats’ most asked-about players at the Winter Meetings, and he would welcome the opportunity to move into a closer’s gig.

Nationals Sign Dan Uggla To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals have signed Dan Uggla to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, the team announced (on Twitter). Uggla is a client of Turn 2 Sports Management.

The Nationals are plenty familiar with Uggla, who turns 35 in March, for a couple of reasons. He’s spent the bulk of his big league career in their division as a member of the Marlins and Braves, and additionally, GM Mike Rizzo drafted Uggla when he was the Diamondbacks’ scouting director back in 2001.

Clearly, Uggla’s five-year, $62MM contract extension with Atlanta didn’t pan out as the Braves had hoped. In fact, they’ll pay him $13MM this coming season after releasing him in the fourth year of his contract. Uggla’s bat significantly declined in 2013 and fell off even further in 2014. In total, he batted a mere .171/.291/.326 in 694 plate appearances over the life of those two seasons. While strikeouts have always been a problem for Uggla, his K-rate jumped to 31 percent in 2013-14, and his power vanished entirely in 2014 (two homers in 157 PA, .064 ISO).

The Nationals have some uncertainty at second base, as they’ll shift Anthony Rendon to third base full-time in 2015, with Ryan Zimmerman jumping to first base. That leaves Danny Espinosa, who has had offensive struggles of his own, and utility infielder Kevin Frandsen as the primary internal options at the keystone. And while Uggla’s name often invokes cynicism from fans, it’s tough to fault the Nats for taking a low-risk flier on a player that hit 30 or more homers each year from 2007-11 and has been roughly a league-average bat as recently as 2012.

Braves To Sign A.J. Pierzynski

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DEC. 26: Pierzynski will earn exactly $2MM, and his contract contains an additional $700K worth of incentives, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

DEC. 24, 2:01pm: Pierzynski is expected to earn around $2MM in the deal, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

1:50pm: The Braves have reached a one-year deal with free agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports on Twitter. Financial terms are not yet reported, and the deal will not become official until a physical that will be delayed by the holidays.

Soon to turn 38, Pierzynski played last year for the Red Sox and Cardinals, struggling to the lowest offensive output of his career. The veteran slashed just .251/.288/.337 and hit five home runs in 362 plate appearances. Advanced defensive metrics (via Baseball Prospectus) saw Pierzynski as slightly below average. The net package was below replacement level.

All that being said, Pierzynski has a lengthy history of solid-to-good output for his position. His lifetime slash of .281/.320/.424 is quite productive for a backstop, and he was good for an .827 OPS and 27 home runs as recent as 2012. Pierzynski has also generally been regarded as a sturdy option behind the dish, both in terms of defensive ability and (especially) durability.

It is ultimately not surprising to see the Braves add a veteran of this ilk. The team appears set to move Evan Gattis out from behind the plate (if not to another team altogether), and pairing well-regarded youngster Christian Bethancourt with a more established option makes plenty of sense.

If Pierzynski returns to his prior form, he could help lead a surprise run for a team that many have written off. Or, he could turn into July trade fodder. Of course, there may be some added risk given the frequent chatter about issues with Pierzynski’s personality. But that likely figured into the price tag, and he delivers scarce upside in a largely barren catching market.

Aaron Lunsford first tweeted news of Pierzynski’s agreement.

Quick Hits: Anthony Carter, KBO/NPB, Salary Inflation

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Anthony Carter’s deal with the Cubs is a split contract, Steve Adams of MLBTR reports on Twitter. Carter will earn at a $575K rate for time spent at the big league level, per Adams, who recently reported the righty’s signing with Chicago.

Here are a few more notes from a quiet Christmas Day:

  • Over at Fangraphs, Bradley Woodrum breaks down the next potential wave of talent from Asia. The KBO and NPB each have a variety of interesting players, and Woodrum provides context for their recent statistical achievements wile discussing their possible translation to the big leagues.
  • Writing for FOX Sports, Lewie Pollis presents a theory for the rise in player salaries. The influx of money into the game only means so much, argues Pollis, who cites to the economic notion of the “winner’s curse.” In essence, because the winning bidder for each free agent generally has the most optimistic view of that players’ likely future output and almost always outbids every other team, the overall spending environment is likely to overstate the actual number wins available for purchase in the market. In large part, says Pollis, the issue boils down to the fact that clubs overrate their own informational and analytical advantages against the rest of the league.

Poll: Most Surprising Free Agent Contract To Date

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Every year, there are free agent signings that fall within, and without, of expectations. Some of those are probably the result of strategic decisions — signing early or trying to wait out the market, for example — while others may suggest that public perception of a player’s value does not always match demand or teams’ valuations. And then, of course, there is the nearly impossible-to-gauge element of non-monetary player considerations.

With that in mind, these are the signings to date that seem most surprising to me, in the sense that they land above or below the generally expected length and/or value:

Billy Butler, three years/$30MM, Athletics – Butler landed an attractive deal from an unexpected place after his old club declined the chance to have him for one year and $12.5MM

Melky Cabrera, three years/$42MM, White Sox – given Cabrera’s relative youth, his excellent overall record of offensive production in recent years, and the mediocre overall pool of free agent corner outfielders, this deal is perhaps lighter than expected

Zach Duke, three years/$15MM, White Sox – nobody saw this coming before the season, and I’m not sure that I saw anyone predict it at the end of the season, but a resurgent Duke took down a nice guarantee over even better term

Jason Hammel, two years/$20MM,  Cubs – Scott Feldman got three years and $30MM last year, and Hammel is the better pitcher; this is, perhaps, an instance of player preference and timing taking control

Nick Markakis, four years/$44MM, Braves – true, MLBTR’s Steve Adams did predict that Markakis would get this deal and then some, but surely there were many skeptics out there

Russell Martin, five years/$82MM, Blue Jays – everyone knew that Martin would have a huge market as the only true starting catcher on the market, but coming in just under Brian McCann’s guaranteee from last year still rates as a big surprise

Brandon McCarthy, four years/$48MM, Dodgers – sure, we all saw what kind of a pitcher McCarthy could be upon his mid-season trade to the Yankees, but many doubted that such a short sample (even accompanied by rosy projections moving forward) would be enough to deliver McCarthy this level of contract — especially with his injury history

Kendrys Morales, two years/$17MM, Royals – Morales severely underperformed last year and is limited to DH duties, yet out-earned Michael Morse

Hanley Ramirez, four years/$88MM, Red Sox – this deal came in way under MLBTR’s expectations; while Ramirez is obviously something of a lightning rod, his superstar-level abilities at the plate cannot be denied

David Robertson, four years/$46MM, White Sox – we at MLBTR felt all along that Robertson was in line for a guarantee on this level, even with a qualifying offer, but many others were not so sure; of course, you could argue that the Andrew Miller contract was even more surprising since he has never even worked as a closer

Agents, Executives On Holiday Activity In Baseball

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Reprinted from December 25, 2013. 

So far, it has been an entertaining offseason in baseball littered with surprising trades and free agents landing lucrative deals thanks to the influx of new TV money across MLB.  However, there tends to be less deals consummated during the holidays and (never say never, but) we’re not likely to see a major transaction go down on Christmas.  That doesn’t mean that the business of baseball magically comes to a screeching halt, however.  Agents and executives are still sending texts and making calls as they enjoy Christmas and New Year’s Eve with their families.

“When I’ve had a free agent negotiation in progress, I can recall times that I have been talking to a GM in the back of my in-laws house while he was at the back of his in-laws house,” said agent Joe Longo of Paragon Sports International, a firm that represents Mike Napoli, Sergio Santos, and other notable big leaguers.

“We all have families and we’re all trying to celebrate the holidays but sometimes you just have to get an update on a free agent when there are four or five teams you’re talking to.  Luckily, my family is really understanding.  My wife gets it.”

For Giants Vice President Bobby Evans, there’s “never a complete shutdown” on business and he told MLBTR last week that his front office will continue to be active through the holiday season.

“There are still quite a few guys out there so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some activity.  Some of it can be put to the side and kept quieter until after the day of Christmas or the New Year but there’s still goint to be activity, there are just too many options out there,” Evans said, while noting that, in his case, the Giants have already taken care of most of their Christmas shopping list and will instead focus on minor league pickups from this point forward.

While everyone acknowledges that the holidays are a slower time, agent Burton Rocks says that he finds that the stretch between Christmas and New Year’s Eve can be a springboard for future activity.  Deals that have stalled, he notes, can be rekindled by reaching out to an executive and wishing them happy holidays.

Meanwhile, one prominent agent says he’ll be focusing on negotiations for his arbitration-eligible clients during the holidays.  Of course, he acknowledges that it’s still possible for something to come out of left field for one of his free agents before the ball drops.  Things may be a bit quieter during the holidays, but every agent and GM will be keeping their phones handy during their downtime.

Poll: Where Will Max Scherzer Land?

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It’s December 25th and the top available free agent of the winter remains unsigned.  In some ways, it’s surprising to see the 30-year-old Max Scherzer still on the market given the widespread interest in him as a talent.  On the other hand, agent Scott Boras has never been afraid to patiently wait for the right deal.  So, who’s in right now?  Well, oddly enough, it might be easier to list the teams that appear or claim to be out.

The incumbent Tigers have had “no conversations” with Scherzer’s camp, according to assistant GM Al Avila.  Earlier this month, an industry source told MLB.com’s Jason Beck even though Scott Boras has openly said the Tigers won’t receive a chance to match an opposing team’s final offer for the hurler, Boras will, in fact, give owner Mike Ilitch a chance to match “at least as a professional courtesy.”  Keeping Scherzer won’t be cheap, but the Tigers know the value that he brings and David Price is a year away from hitting the open market himself.

The Giants have some major question marks in their rotation beyond top starters Madison Bumgarner and Tim Hudson and they’d undoubtedly love to add the former Cy Young winner to their starting five.  However, Giants GM Brian Sabean says that he hasn’t had discussions with Scherzer and doesn’t plan to.  Given their financial constraints and the recent commitments made to retain Jake Peavy and Sergio Romo, SF’s budget just won’t allow for such a deal.

It’s a similar story for the rest of the field.  The Cardinals say they are not actively pursuing Scherzer, even though he’s a native of the St. Louis area.  Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Red Sox, who are normally not as shy about spending, have also been quick to say they’re not in the mix.

Yesterday, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post sized up the rest of the field and rightly noted that the Blue Jays aren’t likely to splurge on Scherzer after showing a reluctance to spend heavily on a reliever.  Davidoff spoke with an AL official who speculated the possibility of the Nationals trading Jordan Zimmermann, a year away from free agency himself, and signing Scherzer – a theory that ESPN’s Jayson Stark was hearing quite a bit from others earlier this month.  Another official from a second AL team pegged the Angels as the team to suck it up and pay the luxury tax penalty necessary to sign Scherzer.  Davidoff picked Detroit and St. Louis as the most likely landing spots for Scherzer while leaving room at the table for the Cubs, who were thought to be a top contender at the start of the offseason.

Take your best guess – where will this offseason’s best free agent wind up in the New Year?

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