With little in the way of transactional news coming out of last night’s All-Star Game festivities, it’s a quiet morning here at MLBTR. While the rumor mill will likely hit high gear in short order, it’s fair to wonder how long we’ll actually have to wait for a trade to go down.
In recent history, we’ve seen a mix of outcomes. (No surprise there.) The deal-making has begun (or, in some cases, re-ignited) not long after the mid-season break, but often takes a bit longer to get going. Without making any claims of predictive value whatsoever, I thought I’d take a look back at the first significant deals — i.e., those involving at least a regular big league contributor — that were struck in each of the past five summers:
With Jeff Samardzija already off the board before the break, the Royals added Jason Frasor on July 16th, the day after last year’s All-Star Game. And on the 18th, the Angels picked up an even more significant pen piece in closer Huston Street. Last year’s market not only had that quality early action, of course, but finished with an incredible flurry of activity.
It took some time to get going out of the break two seasons back. The first impactful deal after the July 16th ballgame was the swap that sent Matt Garza to the Rangers. That trade didn’t occur until July 22nd. All we’d had to chew on before that was the Orioles’ acquisition of Scott Feldman (though that one has become more interesting over time).
After enjoying the All-Star tilt on the tenth of July, a notably early date, it took until July 20th for the Astros and Blue Jays to reach a ten-player deal. Even that trade lacked much in the way of big names, and it wasn’t until the 23rd that Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante were shipped to the Tigers.
The Mets sent Francisco Rodriguez and a lot of cash to the Brewers the day after the July 12th mid-summer classic. Thereafter, hot stove fans had to wait a week for a blockbuster — featuring Jeff Keppinger. (Side note: the Astros used the roster space to promote Jose Altuve!) Then, it was mostly crickets … until the 27th, when Edwin Jackson and Colby Rasmus were dealt. The Carlos Beltran-for-Zach Wheeler deal happened the next day. Good things come to those who wait.
If you were complaining in 2011, then you obviously were spoiled from the year prior, when Cliff Lee had already been traded when the All-Star game took place on July 13th. The action started again right after the game, as the Blue Jays picked up Yunel Escobar on the 14th, but it then took another eight days for Alberto Callaspo to be dealt to the Angels.