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Justin Upton, baseball’s first overall draft pick a decade ago, reaches free agency at age 28 with a solid track record of hitting for power.
Strengths/Pros
Upton’s pedigree is still an important selling point, because it implies he’s yet to reach his ceiling. According to Baseball America, Upton was on scouts’ radars when he was 14 years old. After he was drafted out of high school by the Diamondbacks in ’05, BA wrote that he had “unbelievable tools” and felt that the term “five-tool prospect” sold him short. Upton was the consensus pick for first overall, after older brother B.J. (now known as Melvin) went second overall to the Rays in 2002. Justin was seen as a patient, powerful hitter, with great bat speed, plus power potential, big-time speed, and a cannon for an arm.
Ten years later, Upton has 190 home runs under his belt through age 27. Of the 30 non-active players who accomplished that feat, 17 are in the Hall of Fame. Upton has 82 home runs over the last three seasons, 17th in baseball. Among those with 1500 plate appearances in that time, Upton ranks 22nd in slugging and 18th in ISO. Power is Upton’s main calling card, and at age 28, there may be more to come. Upton is also an asset on the basepaths, as his baserunning runs above average marks can attest.
I wouldn’t call Upton one of the best players in baseball, but he is one of the game’s better outfielders. Over the last three years, his 10.6 wins above replacement ranks 18th among outfielders. He was an All-Star in 2009, ’11, and ’15, finishing fourth in the MVP voting in ’11. Upton has been durable, averaging 152 games played over the last five seasons.
As we’ve mentioned, Upton will play most of next season at age 28. The only other top 30 free agent position players who will play next year in their 20s are Jason Heyward and Colby Rasmus. Upton’s age leaves room for upside and should result in his team getting more prime years.
Weaknesses/Cons
Let’s be honest: Upton hasn’t lived up to the mammoth expectations placed on him. He only reached 30 home runs once in his eight seasons, and that was four years ago. Power may be Upton’s strength, but fellow free agent Chris Davis has shown much more. Upton’s ability to get on base is nothing special, and one can name at least 20 hitters who have been better overall over the last three years. You can find at least 40 hitters who were better this year. Upside is nice, but if this is all Upton is, he’s a good player and not a great one.
Strikeouts are part of Upton’s game. He has whiffed in 25.8% of his plate appearances since 2013; only seven qualified hitters struck out more often. Oddly enough, all of them are either free agents or non-tender candidates.
Upton’s left field defense grades out as roughly average. Advanced metrics show he was a touch above average this year, and a touch below last year. I don’t consider it a strength or a weakness, but I felt his defense warranted mention.
Upton is expected to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Padres, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture. This is not the case for one of his main market competitors, Yoenis Cespedes.
Personal
Upton was born in Norfolk, Virginia and resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife. Justin grew up in a baseball family. His father Manny scouted for the Royals and White Sox, and older brother Melvin was drafted second overall in ’02. Justin battled an immaturity label early in his career, as outlined in this 2012 ESPN article by Robert Sanchez. It should be noted that he made his MLB debut at age 19. Upton signed a six-year, $51.25MM extension with the Diamondbacks in March 2010, but was traded to the Braves in January 2013. He spent 2013 and ’14 roaming the outfield alongside his brother Melvin, who had signed with Atlanta a few months prior. Then Justin was traded to the Padres in December 2014, and Melvin rejoined him after a separate deal in April.
Market
Upton should have plenty of suitors this winter, though he does not seem likely to re-sign with the Padres. The Orioles don’t have much at the outfield corners, and could have money to spend if they lose Chris Davis. The Yankees could be a suitor if they trade Brett Gardner. The Rangers could be a potential match if they have an appetite for another large contract. The White Sox have a need in the outfield, but have never spent even $70MM on a player. The Mariners could have a spot for Upton, but he rejected a trade to Seattle in 2013. I wouldn’t rule them out, however, in the case Upton has decided the Mariners are closer to contention now than they were two years ago. I’ve heard plenty of speculation that the Giants make a good fit for Upton, though it’s possible they’ll put their resources toward pitching.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was the scouting director when the Diamondbacks drafted Upton first overall, but a reunion would require moving Jayson Werth to right field and Bryce Harper to center. It’s unclear whether they’d be interested in doing so. The Dodgers have almost $40MM tied up in Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier next year. Trading one of them and signing Upton (not necessarily in that order) is plausible.
The Tigers could have a spot for Upton, but they seem likely to focus on starting pitching. Same goes for the Red Sox, who would also have to move an outfielder like Jackie Bradley to make room. The Angels, Astros, and Blue Jays could seek a left field upgrade this winter, but may prefer a left-handed hitter. The Jays, as well as the Indians, were on Upton’s four-team no-trade list last winter. The Indians would likely face budget restraints with Upton, and may not want to bring him on as a right fielder anyway.
The Royals could have an opening in left field if Alex Gordon departs, but they’ve never committed more than $55MM to a player. The Cardinals have plenty of in-house replacements if Jason Heyward departs. The Mets are a tough match even if Cespedes leaves, with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto at the corners. The Cubs also have more of a need at center field. The Phillies have little in place at the outfield corners and could afford Upton, but it would be odd for a rebuilding club and a tough sell for the player.
Expected Contract
Given his age, an opt-out clause should be a consideration for Upton. Agent Larry Reynolds would do well to get his client another crack at free agency at age 30 or 31, as no one would be surprised if Upton takes his game to another level and hits 40 home runs at some point. If an opt-out clause is obtained by Reynolds, I’d expect the total dollars to be reduced as a concession.
Coming off an inferior season to Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes, I’d expect Upton to receive a slightly lower average annual value. Plus, Upton’s age gives him a chance at a seventh year, which may also bring down the AAV. Something in the $20-22MM range could work. The end result might put all three players at a similar grand total. I’m putting Upton down for a seven-year, $147MM contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization will post right fielder Ah-seop Son for MLB teams to bid upon this offseason, according to the Yonhap News Agency (hat tip: Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Lotte had reportedly been mulling over the difficult decision of whether to post Son or third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang, both of whom had asked the club to post them. However, KBO’s league rules state that a team can accept only one bid on a posted player per offseason, and a league ruling was made that Lotte could not simply post them simultaneously and then select the top bid.
Per Yonhap, if the Giants don’t receive a bid that is to their liking on Son, or they accept a bid but Son and the winning team cannot come to a deal on a Major League contract, the club will then immediately make Hwang available via the posting system. If a bid for Son is accepted and he does indeed sign with a big league club, then Lotte almost certainly will lose Hwang for nothing next offseason, as he’s set to become a true free agent next winter and could negotiate with MLB clubs without the restrictions of the posting system.
Because of that, it’s at least a mild surprise to see Son posted first, as he’d have been eligible to be posted next winter as well. However, the Yonhap report indicates that the Giants elected to post Son first due to a superior track record over the past five seasons. While Hwang set multiple career-highs in 2015, most notably in home runs (by a wide margin), Son’s been the steadier hitter over the past half-decade.
Dating back to 2011, Son has batted .333/.409/.476 as opposed to Hwang’s .289/.357/.438. Son has averaged 12 homers and 16 steals per year in that time, while Hwang has averaged respective totals of 12 and 17. (Hwang’s 26 homers in 2015 skew those averages somewhat, though so, too, do Son’s 36 steals in 2013.) The duo’s 2015 production — .317/.406/.472 for Son and .290/.350/.521 for Hwang — made the decision difficult for Lotte.
Son, who is represented by agent Rick Thurman of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, will turn 28 during Spring Training next season. He will be posted under the old, blind-bid posting system that still applies to KBO. As a reminder, that means all 30 clubs will have the opportunity to submit a bid of any amount to secure negotiating rights for Son’s services. If Son’s team accepts the bid — and the Giants could neglect to do so if they don’t think it to be a high enough price for one of their top players — that team would then have 30 days to negotiate a big league contract with Son and Thurman. If a deal can’t be reached, Son would return to Lotte for the 2016 season, and the MLB club that won the bidding would receive its money back. As noted above, should that scenario play out, the process would start over with Hwang, with all 30 teams being eligible to place a bid.
Son will become eligible to be posted starting on Nov. 1, and due to the possibility that Lotte could have to go through the month-long bidding process twice this winter, it’d make sense for the club to post him as early in the offseason as possible. Teams will be burning through their budgets over the course of the winter, and waiting until later in the offseason raises the possibility of a team feeling its spent all it can on free agency or of acquiring an alternative to either player either via free agency or trade.
For the time being, Son will join a crowded free agent market for corner outfielders that is headlined by Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes but also features Colby Rasmus, Alex Rios, Steve Pearce and Rajai Davis, among others.
The Red Sox announced today what the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo first reported over the weekend: former Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has been hired as the club’s new first base coach. He’ll also serve as Boston’s outfield instructor and assist in coaching the club on baserunning. Per the release announcing the move, Amaro signed a two-year contract.
“I was honored that Dave [Dombrowski] and John [Farrell] would consider me for this opportunity and add me to this dynamic coaching staff,” said Amaro in a press release announcing the unusual hire. “I am poised, focused, and ready to bring anything I can in terms of experience and knowledge to this position, and I look forward to being a part of the Boston Red Sox.”
Amaro’s transition from the top of a baseball operations hierarchy to a coaching staff is relatively unprecedented. Earlier this year, Marlins GM Dan Jennings moved from the front office to the dugout, although that was within his own organization after the club had fired skipper Mike Redmond. Amaro, on the other hand, leaves the only organization with which he’s ever been involved in the front office to join the coaching staff of an organization with which he’s never been affiliated. Amaro was a teammate of Farrell with the Indians in 1994, so the two men do have a preexisting connection.
Though Amaro doesn’t have prior coaching experience, he did spend parts of eight seasons in the Major Leagues as an outfielder. In 1051 plate appearances, Amaro batted .235/.310/.353 with the Angels, Phillies and Indians. He joined the Phillies’ front office the same year that he retired as a player, in 1998.
One would think that Amaro could have found a spot within a different front office as a special assistant or senior adviser to a different GM, as many previously fired GMs have done. For example, former Cubs GM Jim Hendry is currently in the Yankees’ front office, former D-Backs/Padres GM Kevin Towers is with the Reds, former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi is with the Mets and former Mets GM Omar Minaya spent several seasons as an assistant/adviser in the Padres’ front office before joining the MLBPA. (Those, of course, are just a few recent examples.) Amaro, though, clearly wants to go down a different path than peers who have found themselves in similar situations, and kudos to him for doing so even though it will likely open him up to come criticism.
The 50-year-old Amaro’s tenure as Phillies GM was littered with missteps that led to a widely expected dismissal in September, but his successor, former Angels’ GM Matt Klentak, thanked Amaro at today’s introductory press conference for the work he did in rebuilding the club’s farm system over the past year-plus. Amaro acquired prospects Jorge Alfaro, Jake Thompson, Nick Williams, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher, Ben Lively, Tom Windle, Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, Darnell Sweeney, John Richy and Joely Rodriguez in trades that sent Antonio Bastardo, Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and Chase Utley to new teams over the final year of his tenure.
Last week’s edition of the MLBTR Mailbag included questions on Yoenis Cespedes and the Cardinals, Joaquin Benoit’s club option, Dalton Pompey’s trade candidacy, the possibility of an Andre Ethier trade and the long-term outlook at third base for both the White Sox and Brewers.
We’ll run through another group of questions later today in this week’s mailbag, so if you have question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Sheer volume will prevent us from getting to every question, of course, though readers can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by myself and Jeff Todd, respectively.
OCT. 26: The Phillies have announced the hiring of Klentak as vice president and general manager, adding that, at 35 years of age, Klentak is the youngest GM in the club’s history.
“In Matt we found an executive with the keen ability to understand cutting-edge baseball analytics, coupled with superior scouting, player development and leadership skills,” said president Andy MacPhail in the press release that announced the move. “Additionally, his commitment and resolve to build the foundation for a championship-caliber team was evident every step of the way through the process. I trust Matt to lead the Phillies as we all rededicate ourselves to return championship baseball to Philadelphia.”
OCT. 24: The Phillies will name Angels assistant Matt Klentak as their next GM, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweets. Yesterday, it emerged that Klentak was a finalist for the job, along with Chaim Bloom of the Rays and Dan Kantrovitz of the Athletics. As MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki noted (via Twitter), all three candidates were in their 30s and had Ivy League and analytics backgrounds.
Klentak began working in the Rockies baseball operations department soon after graduating from Dartmouth with an economics degree. He then worked in labor relations for MLB for several seasons and helped shape the 2006 Collective Bargaining Agreement. He departed to become director of baseball operations for the Orioles, where he worked under current Phillies president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail. Following the 2011 season, he headed to the Angels, where he specialized in working with contracts, arbitration and roster issues. He was recently a candidate for the Angels GM position that went to Billy Eppler. (While with the Angels, Klentak was also one of the first-ever guests on the MLBTR Podcast, appearing one year ago today.)
“Matt brings so much to the table,” said then-Angels GM Jerry Dipoto. “Matt understands the inner workings of baseball from the field to the finance. He understands baseball from the staff in the clubhouse to the players on the field to how to communicate back and forth with a finance department and ownership.”
MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes (Twitter links) that Klentak did much of the Angels’ GM work once Dipoto resigned (even though Bill Stoneman was officially the Angels’ interim GM). Klentak is analytically oriented, but is regarded as a good communicator.
The Phillies’ 2015 season was, of course, a miserable one, but the situation Klentak is entering is in many ways rather favorable. Thanks to what appears to be a solid series of recent top draft picks and the strong trade of Cole Hamels to the Rangers, the Phillies have a very good collection of young talent headed by J.P. Crawford, Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola, Jake Thompson, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro and Cornelius Randolph. The Phillies have also historically had relatively large payrolls, which could give Klentak the ability to add to that core once it matures.
Besides Klentak, Bloom and Kantrovitz, other interviewees for the Phillies’ position included former Marlins executive Larry Beinfest, MLB vice president of baseball operations Kim Ng, Indians vice president of player personnel Ross Atkins, Cardinals director of player personnel Matt Slater, Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo and former Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Klentak’s departure is the second significant one for Eppler and the Angels’ front office this week — the Mariners just hired Klentak’s fellow Angels assistant Scott Servais to be their manager.
More and more teams are adopting the formula of hiring an Ivy League-educated, analytics-based GM and/or a veteran player as manager despite little or no coaching experience, a trend FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal finds a bit troubling. A specific hiring model may make it harder for minorities to make inroads into front office or managerial positions. Teams that rely too much on analytics could run into as many problems as front offices that are too “old-school,” while Rosenthal notes that several long-time coaches or managers may now find themselves frozen out of the job market simply because they’re not fresh faces.
Here’s some more from around baseball as we head into World Series week…
Very few pundits saw the Mets or (despite being defending AL champs) Royals reaching the Fall Classic, yet both teams are now preparing for Game 1 of the World Series. Here’s some info on both teams, looking back at how they got to the brink of a championship…
9:52pm: Black’s second interview will also take place on Monday, ESPN’s Jim Bowden tweets.
2:53pm: Dusty Baker and Bud Black will indeed receive second interviews for the Nationals’ managerial vacancy and, at this point, it appears that one of the two will get the job, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes. “Barring something strange happening,” Heyman writes that it will be one of the two experienced candidates since they are the only finalists remaining.
Baker will interview on Monday while Black’s interview will also take place early this week. Heyman notes that GM Mike Rizzo has a preference for experienced managers, though he made an exception in the case of Matt Williams.
In 1362 career games as a manager, all with the Padres, Black totaled a record of 649-713 despite routinely having to work with one of baseball’s lowest payrolls. A pitching coach prior to his work as a manager, he drew praise for his work with many of San Diego’s young arms over the course of his career in the dugout.
As the manager of the Reds, Baker led the club to a 509-463 record and three playoff berths across six seasons. The 66-year-old is also a three-time NL Manager of the Year and led the 2002 Giants to the National League pennant. In total, Baker owns a 1671-1504 record as manager of the Giants, Cubs, and Reds.
The Nats conducted a wide-ranging search for the position with names such as Ron Gardenhire, Giants coach Ron Wotus, Dodgers coach Tim Wallach, Alex Cora, and Diamondbacks minor-league manager Phil Nevin among those linked to the opening. Ex-Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly was conspicuously absent from their search and it doesn’t appear that Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. garnered consideration despite his stated interest in the job.
It was on this day in 2006 that a 16-year-old from Monte Cristi, Dominican Republic signed an amateur contract with the Cubs. Over the last decade, Starlin Castro has gone from being a prized prospect and “face of the franchise” stardom all the way to perhaps being becoming a symbol of the team’s rebuilding years rather than a cornerstone of their future.
Castro quickly rose through Chicago’s minor league system and debuted in the majors in 2010. At first, it seemed like Castro was a natural, posting a .755 OPS over 125 games in his rookie year and then hitting .307/.341/.432 (with a league-leading 207 hits) over 715 plate appearances in 2011. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer cleared the deck of several of the old regime’s players in their first year running the team, but they quickly locked up Castro, signing the shortstop to a seven-year, $60MM extension in August 2012.
While that extension has been widely debated in the last few years, at the time it was seen as a logical move for the Cubs. The deal gave them cost certainty over Castro, who was quickly going to become expensive due to an extra arbitration year as a Super Two player. The contract gave Chicago control over all four arb years, three free agent years and potentially a fourth, as per the $16MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2020 season. With Castro enjoying another strong year in 2012, many pundits figured the Cubs were saving themselves money by locking up a young player at a premium position through his 20’s when his best years were theoretically ahead of him.
That investment, however, looks shakier now given how Castro’s inconsistent play over the last three seasons. Castro enjoyed a strong 2014 campaign that saw him hit .292/.339/.438 with 14 homers in 569 PA, but that was sandwiched between two poor seasons. Castro put up virtual replacement player numbers in 2013 (0.1 fWAR) and then last year hit .265/.296/.375 in 578 PA, losing his starting shortstop job to Addison Russell to boot.
Rumors of a position switch or a trade had swirled around Castro essentially ever since the Cubs acquired Russell from the A’s in the summer of 2014. Suddenly, the Cubs had a new blue-chip shortstop prospect to replace their old one, not to mention a young slugger of a middle infield option in Javier Baez. There was great speculation that Castro could be moved to clear a big contract and make way for the future, and it’s possible that a trade could still happen this winter.
That said, Castro’s move to second base turned his season around. He hit .236/.271/.304 in 435 PA from April 5 to August 6, exclusively playing shortstop. His first game at the keystone came on August 7, and Castro proceeded to slash a whopping .353/.373/.588 over his final 143 PA. With Baez still struggling to avoid strikeouts and fully harness his power on the Major League level, the Cubs may well decide to just keep Castro at second next year to either see what they have (with both he or Baez, as well) or at least give Castro more of a showcase should they pursue a midseason trade.
It will probably take more than 143 good plate appearances to convince another team to give up anything of major value since Castro is still owed at least $38MM over the next four years. That said, Castro is still only 25 and has three All-Star appearances under his belt. There are lots of teams in need of help at either middle infield position who could be willing to overlook Castro’s lack of plate discipline and shaky glove, at the right price.
The Cubs already tried to “aggressively” trade him at last summer’s trade deadline, so it remains to be seen if Castro will remain through this new era of competitive Cubs baseball, or if Castro may one day appear in a future This Date In Transactions History that details his move out of the Windy City.
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