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Archives for November 2015

NL East Notes: Zobrist, Allard, Simmons

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Let’s take a quick look in at a few notes from the NL East:

  • Free agent utilityman extraordinaire Ben Zobrist has already been tied to just about every team in baseball, including the Nationals and Mets. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and MLB Network’s Tom Verducci see those NL East rivals as strong fits and real threats to add the veteran. (Links to Rosenthal’s Twitter account.) All indications are that Zobrist remains in very high demand with the open-market season in full swing.
  • Young Braves lefty Kolby Allard tweets that he’s only had one back surgery, contrary to reports suggesting he’d had two separate procedures. Regardless, what’s important here is the fact that Allard says he’s “recovering quickly” and expects to be ready for spring camp. The 18-year-old remains an intriguing player to watch as he enters his first full season of professional ball.
  • Some Braves fans have been left frustrated with the team’s front office. After all, one line of thinking goes, why trade a quality young shortstop in Andrelton Simmons if you are aiming for near-term competitiveness? While this has obviously been reported and commented on quite a bit, it’s well worth considering the comments of GM John Coppolella in full, and David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution provides a complete transcript of his recent media session. Most interesting, perhaps, were Coppolella’s statements on the timing of the deal. With the Angels having many needs, he said, that club might have used its top pitching prospects in other deals had the Braves waited to act. He went on to reflect on some recent experiences in that regard: “We had a shot to trade a player this past season for a guy who’s now ranked as a top-50 prospect in the game, and that player [whom the Braves were going to trade] ended up getting hurt,” Coppolella explained. “And by the time we tried to make the trade, that prospect had shot up the charts and they wouldn’t even talk about the player.” The newly-minted GM also said that the Braves “made a strong run” to acquire Luis Severino from the Yankees, noting that he’s now “off-limits this year.”

Coaching Notes: McGwire, Henley, Magadan, Rowand

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Let’s catch up on the latest coaching signings as teams finalize their field staffs:

  • One-time superstar slugger Mark McGwire is set to join the Padres as the bench coach alongside new manager Andy Green, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently reports. (Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported as a strong possibility.) McGwire has worked as a hitting coach with the Cardinals and Dodgers over the past six years. The 52-year-old’s ascension to a bench coach role suggests that a managerial opportunity might not be far off.
  • The Nationals have brought back Bobby Henley as the team’s third base coach, per a club announcement. Henley was set loose along with the rest of the staff (and manager Matt Williams) at the end of a disappointing 2015 campaign, but he’ll join hitting coach Rick Schu in reprising their roles. Most of skipper Dusty Baker’s staff is now set.
  • Dave Magadan has been announced as the Diamondbacks’ new hitting coach. A 16-year MLB veteran, Magadan has previously worked in the Padres, Red Sox, and Rangers organizations, most recently serving as the top batting instructor for Texas.
  • Former big leaguer Aaron Rowand will serve as a minor league outfield and baserunning instructor, the White Sox have announced. Rowand, 38, retired after the 2011 season. He’ll return to the place where he started his professional and MLB career.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11-25-15

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • The Rays released catcher J.P. Arencibia after recently designating him for assignment, per the team’s transactions page. Arencibia, 29, had an impressive 24-game run with Tampa Bay late in the season, but it wasn’t enough for the club to tender him a contract. He ought to get plenty of interest as a free agent from teams looking for major-league-capable receiving options.
  • Mariners lefty Danny Hultzen cleared outright waivers, the club announced. Though his talent has always been evident, Hultzen’s shoulder has not been willing. Despite going second overall in the 2011 draft, Hultzen has yet to tally 200 professional innings pitched.
  • Backstop Adrian Nieto tweets that he’s signed on with the Marlins. Nieto was a Rule 5 pick of the White Sox who stuck on the big league roster for all of 2014, but the switch-hitter didn’t hit much at the Double-A level last year and lost his roster spot in Chicago.
  • The Orioles announced a host of minor league signings today. Among the notable names are righties Pedro Beato and Todd Redmond, lefty Cesar Cabral, and catcher Audry Perez. The 29-year-old Beato has 93 1/3 innings of MLB experience under his belt, while Redmond was a regular part of the Blue Jays’ pen from 2013-14 before losing his job last year. Cabral and Perez both have much more limited MLB experience. They each return to the Baltimore organization after spending most of 2015 at Triple-A Norfolk.
  • The Blue Jays have signed lefty Scott Diamond to a minor league deal, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.  The 29-year-old will receive a big league camp invite after tossing 150 1/3 solid Triple-A frames last year in the Rays organization.

AL Notes: Lawrie, Valencia, Rasmus, Soria, Maybin

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The Athletics’ acquisition of Jed Lowrie has set the team up to trade away another infielder, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Lowrie will probably play second base, forming a double-play duo with incumbent shortstop Marcus Semien. There is interest from other American League teams in both Brett Lawrie and Danny Valencia, she reports, with the former seemingly more likely to be dealt. Lawrie, 26, slashed just .260/.299/.407 last year after being acquired as a key piece of the Josh Donaldson trade. He has two years of control remaining, with MLBTR projecting him to earn $3.9MM this year. Valencia, meanwhile, performed both before and after he was claimed by Oakland off waivers from the Blue Jays. He, too, can be controlled for another two years and is projected at $3.4MM.

Here’s more from the A.L.:

  • On the other side of that deal, the Astros were in part compelled to give up Lowrie because outfielder Colby Rasmus accepted a qualifying offer, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle explains. GM Jeff Luhnow said that the club is happy to “pay a little more” given the increased certainty that Rasmus represents in his second year with the club, but that also made it harder for the organization to pay Lowrie $7.5MM to perform what might have been a super-utility role. “Given that we had a lot of options at third and first, we (thought we) could take those resources and apply them to an area of our club we didn’t have as much depth (or where we) don’t have anybody penciled into that spot right now,” Luhnow said. “Whether it’s lefthanded relief, righthanded relief or even a starter, those resources will be reallocated to something we believe will help.”
  • Rasmus and the Astros have yet to explore a multi-year arrangement and are unlikely to do so before he hits the open market next fall, Drellich adds.
  • The Twins are interested in Joakim Soria but haven’t made him an offer at this point, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Soria, though, does have offers in hand from other clubs, he hears. Presumably, none of those offers have approached his previously reported three-year, $27MM asking price.
  • Last week’s acquisition of Cameron Maybin from the Braves likely ends the Tigers’ pursuit of outfield help, reports James Schmehl of MLive.com. General manager Al Avila told Schmehl that a further acquisition is “doubtful,” adding that it’s not entirely clear what Maybin’s role in 2016 will be. “Some people feel he should be playing center and Anthony Gose in left,” said Avila. “Some people feel he should be playing left and Gose in center. And we still have Tyler Collins, obviously. That’s the beauty of (Maybin) — we feel good about him either way.” Schmehl reports that in addition to making an offer to re-sign Rajai Davis prior to acquiring Maybin, the Tigers also made an offer to an unnamed outfielder. While he doesn’t offer further details, I’d imagine that Ryan Raburn, Chris Denorfia and Chris Young could’ve filled similar roles in Detroit, though Raburn doesn’t really profile as a possible center field option. Franklin Gutierrez, too, could’ve been a right-handed target for the Tigers prior to his new contract with the Mariners.

International Notes: Thames, Lee, Cuba

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Korean stars Jae-gyun Hwang and Byung-ho Park may soon be joining countryman Jung-ho Kang in making the KBO to MLB transition. (Hwang will be posted next Monday, while Park is in a negotiating window with the Twins.) But perhaps the most interesting trans-Pacific baseball story is playing out on the Korean peninsula. Former big league outfielder Eric Thames was recently named the 2015 KBO MVP. Thames, who just turned 29, showed some pop and promise in North America, but never quite seized an opportunity and moved to Korea after he failed to receive a big league call-up in his age-26 campaign. All he’s done since is devastate his new league, putting up consecutive seasons with an OPS of over 1.100.  Thames is under contract with the NC Dinos for one more campaign, but figures to draw strong interest from Japan’s NPB as well as major league organizations if he can post anything approaching his 2015 numbers, which were ridiculous even for the hitter-friendly KBO: .381/.497/.790 with 47 home runs and 40 stolen bases in 595 plate appearances.

If you’re interested in taking a peek at Thames’ exploits, check out this Naver Sports highlight video. Here are some other notes on the international market:

  • Free agent first baseman Dae-ho Lee — a South Korean who has been playing in Japan — will visit the United States in early December to meet with MLB clubs, according to another report from Yoo. The 33-year-old power hitter is drawing interest from “multiple” teams, his Korean agency (Montis) tells Yoo. He’s already shown he ability to excel in both the KBO and NPB and last year was his best in Japan, as he slashed .282/.368/.524 with 31 home runs.
  • While the Asian markets have grabbed much of the recent attention, Cuba remains a hotbed for international activity. Baseball America’s Ben Badler has the latest on a variety of intriguing players from the neighboring island. The Reds appear to be in the lead to sign slick defender Alfredo Rodriguez, says Badler, while the Cubs and Dodgers are expected to lead the charge on other bonus-pool-bound players that become eligible to sign out of Cuba.
  • Badler also has some updates on a group of other touted players. Outfielder Guillermo Heredia and righty Vladimir Gutierrez are training in Florida and holding private workouts, while pitchers Norge Ruiz and Cionel Perez are set to hold showcases in the coming weeks.

Heyman’s Latest: Madson, Iwakuma, Alvarez, Zobrist, O’s, Perez, Freese

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Let’s take a look in at the latest reporting from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who touched upon several notable stories today (all via his Inside Baseball column, except as otherwise noted):

  • The Dodgers have had contact with free agent righty Ryan Madson, Heyman says. The veteran, who enjoyed a remarkable turnaround last year, could be one of several options as Los Angeles looks to beef up its pen.
  • The Mariners have long said that re-signing Hisashi Iwakuma is a priority, and GM Jerry Dipoto reaffirmed that stance only days ago. Heyman writes that the club is “willing to go to around $24 million or so over two years” for the accomplished veteran. It’s not entirely clear whether there’s any willingness to go beyond that amount, but it seems a bit light for a pitcher of Iwakuma’s ability. (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts a three-year, $45MM deal for the righty.)
  • Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez would welcome a trade, writes Heyman. It’s been known for awhile that Alvarez is on the block due to his rising arbitration salary, poor glove and struggles with left-handed pitching. The Pirates almost certainly don’t want to pay Alvarez his projected $8.1MM salary next season and could very well non-tender him next week if they can’t find a taker. Heyman notes that the Orioles make some sense, and I’d add the Athletics as a speculative fit also. He’s probably best off with an AL club where he can DH, but it’s also fun to think of the power numbers Alvarez could log at Coors Field.
  • The Cardinals are among the most interested teams in Ben Zobrist and have reached out to his representatives at Octagon, reports Heyman. Zobrist was linked to the Cardinals last week, and Heyman notes that there are as many as 20 teams believed to have interest in the versatile switch-hitter. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cardinals are indeed in the mix, but it remains to be seen whether they can sell Zobrist on a super-utility role (an “uber-role,” as Goold terms it). Zobrist’s preference is reportedly to play second base.
  • While the Orioles are prioritizing an effort to bring back Chris Davis, the club has legitimate interest in outfielder Alex Gordon. Meanwhile, Heyman says that he’d be surprised if the club pursues Gerardo Parra as a corner outfield option, since “they weren’t all that impressed by him” over the last several months.
  • The Royals may be “willing to at least talk” with the reps of backstop Salvador Perez about “reworking” his early-career extension. That contract has become almost comically team-friendly since it was signed — a reflection of both the significant risk taken on by the team at the time and the extent to which Perez has rewarded that trust. It’s not entirely clear what kind of scenario could be pursued, but all indications are that Kansas City would be bargaining from a position of strength.
  • There’s at least “a bit” of contact between the Angels and free agent third baseman David Freese, says Heyman. A reunion continues to appear possible, though the club will likely look to see how some other market possibilities play out before committing to the veteran.

Orioles Interested In Yovani Gallardo

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The Orioles have made contact with the representatives of Yovani Gallardo to express interest in the free agent righty, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. Encina cautions that it is still early in the process and there does not appear to be any likelihood of near-term movement. Indeed, we heard recently that Gallardo’s agent expects it to take some time for his market to develop.

Gallardo, 29, took the twentieth spot on the top fifty free agent list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. While he no longer profiles as a top-of-the-rotation arm, Gallardo fits in the mold of other recent free agent hurlers who have commanded four-year deals at better than $12MM annually. Dierkes predicts that he can achieve a $52MM guarantee on the open market.

Of course, one of those recent comparables — Ubaldo Jimenez — signed his deal with Baltimore two years ago. That contract was, and still is, the richest pitching contract ever given out by the club.

The O’s needed to give up a draft pick to sign Jimenez, and the same would be required to add Gallardo, who declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers. Baltimore owns the 15th overall pick in this year’s draft and stands to add two more top selections if and when Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen sign with new teams.

Baltimore’s staff certainly appears to be in need of supplementation, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explained in his offseason outlook piece on the club. Gallardo comes with his share of risk — metrics suggest that his sub-3.50 ERA over the last two seasons has been about half a run per nine lucky — but he has been exceedingly durable and has a a nice overall track record of production.

Free Agent Profile: Wei-Yin Chen

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After a successful four-year stint with the Orioles, Taiwanese lefty Wei-Yin Chen has reached free agency coming off the best season of his MLB career.

Strengths/Pros

Since 2014, Chen has a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings.  That ranks 28th among all qualified MLB starters, 11th among southpaws, and seventh among a historically strong free agent class.  While Chen is not an ace, he’s had better recent results than the casual fan might realize, and he’s been better than free agent peers Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake.

Sep 26, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Wei-Yin Chen (16) delivers a pitch during the first inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Chen is not going to beat himself.  His 1.81 BB/9 ranks tenth among qualified starters for 2014-15, and he’s walked a lower percentage of batters faced than even Zack Greinke.  Chen was unhittable against lefties this year, as only Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw allowed a lower weighted on-base average against them.  Chen throws hard for a southpaw, as his average fastball velocity over the last two years of 91.6 miles per hour ranks seventh among qualified lefty starters.

Chen features a healthy left arm.  His only MLB DL stint was for an oblique strain in 2013.  In each of his other three MLB campaigns, he made at least 31 starts.  Over the past four years, Chen has made more starts than guys like Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Johnny Cueto.

Chen has youth on his side, as he turned 30 in July.  He’s younger than mid-range free agent southpaws Scott Kazmir and J.A. Happ, making four years palatable and five years possible.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you’re not into ERA, Chen doesn’t look all that great.  Though he had that 3.44 ERA over the last two seasons, his SIERA during that time was 3.91.  Chen’s skills suggest he’s more Wade Miley/Jon Niese than Jose Quintana/Francisco Liriano.  I’m not just citing an esoteric stat here.  Chen’s strikeout rates have always been pedestrian, generally at or below league average.  His groundball rate ranks 42nd among qualified starters over the last two years, and his attendant home run rate is the sixth-worst in baseball.  To succeed, Chen needs a strong defense and a big ballpark.  Even then, the expectation should be league average innings.

On that note, Chen is not going to save a team’s bullpen, as he has averaged 6.08 innings per start over the last two seasons.  Among those with at least 60 starts, that ranks 28th of 46.  Samardzija and Leake will regularly go deeper into games than Chen.

Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so signing him requires a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  This is a disadvantage for Chen compared to pitchers such as Cueto, Leake, Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.  Teams like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks would have to forfeit an early-teens draft pick to sign Chen, which could cause them to look elsewhere in a robust market for free agent pitching.

Personal

Chen, a native of Taiwan, dropped out of college in 2004 to play pro ball, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.  He reportedly received offers from Japanese and MLB teams at the time.  According to Newman, Chen chose to sign with with the Chunichi Dragons because of Taiwanese scout Ta-Feng Chen.  After spending a little bit of time with the Dragons as well as their farm team, Chen went down for Tommy John surgery in late 2006.  Newman tells me the Dragons released him while he was rehabbing, re-signing him to an ikusei contract.  He went on to star with the Dragons, winning an ERA title in 2009.  At the pitcher’s request, the Dragons released Chen after the 2011 season, allowing him to reach international free agency without dealing with the posting system.  Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette, who had been hired a few months earlier, signed Chen to a three-year contract worth $11.388MM guaranteed, with a club option for a fourth year.  Duquette had also signed Tsuyoshi Wada out of Japan for $8.15MM.  Chen was the first Taiwan-born player to sign with an MLB team out of Japan, as well as the first Taiwanese player in Orioles history.  Chen’s big league debut attracted more than a million viewers in Taiwan, where the game was carried on three national TV networks.

Market

The Orioles have a lot of needs to fill, and they don’t seem likely to re-sign Chen.  Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun noted recently that the O’s have never given a five-year deal to a free agent pitcher, plus Chen was “miffed” by the team’s decision to send him to the minors briefly in June due to a roster crunch.  Chen’s market could include teams such as the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, D’Backs, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and Yankees.  According to Connolly, Chen and his family reside in Southern California in the offseason.  As I mentioned, some clubs will back away because of the qualifying offer.  Others may prefer not to do business with agent Scott Boras or won’t have the payroll space for Chen.  There are four potential $100MM+ pitchers on the market, and then there is a second tier with Chen, Samardzija, Leake, and perhaps Maeda.  I project this to be the $80MM range, and certainly there are reasons to prefer Chen to the other three.  Samardzija is coming off a 4.96 ERA, Leake misses even fewer bats and had a higher ERA than Chen, and Maeda is unproven in MLB and may not even be posted.  Plus, Chen is the only southpaw of his tier.  If Chen drops down to four years, he could be compared to Kazmir.  Kazmir is no horse himself, and he’s a year and a half older than Chen.

Expected Contract

I’ve seen some four-year projections for Chen’s contract, and while that is possible, I believe he’ll get five.  Next year’s free agent market is one factor — Chen would be the second-best starting pitcher in that weak group, which might be important to forward-looking teams.  There’s also the Boras factor.  He got a four-year deal for a 35-year-old Derek Lowe.  He routinely gets his clients contracts at the top end of their range, particularly those coming off a good year.  There’s also good old-fashioned earned run average.  A 3.34 ERA still sounds really good.  If Boras has a team owner’s ear on Chris Davis, surely he’ll bring up Chen and sell the lefty on the basis of that ERA.  ERA still seems to hold sway in the marketplace – look no further than the James Shields signing or the Alfredo Simon trade.  While I see a ceiling of $90MM, I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract for Chen.

Braves Sign Bud Norris

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The Braves have agreed to a one-year major league deal with free agent righty Bud Norris, the club announced. He’ll earn $2.5MM for 2016, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).

Norris, 30, will look for redemption in Atlanta after suffering through a rough 2015 season. On the year, he allowed 6.72 earned runs per nine over 83 innings with 7.7 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. Along the way, Norris lost his rotation spot and ultimately his roster spot with the Orioles before landing in the Padres’ bullpen.

The Braves will plug Norris into the rotation, GM John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). He has been useful in such a role previously, of course: in 955 2/3 career innings as a starter, Norris owns a 4.38 ERA. And that’s skewed somewhat by his early-career results.

Atlanta obviously needed another depth piece in its rotation. While there are a number of young players at or near the majors, the staff has a fair bit of uncertainty. The only sure things, arguably, are Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran, but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if either or both ended up being traded.

If the righty doesn’t transition well back to the starting staff, he could always turn into a useful reliever. Norris did manage a career-best 11.3 K/9 rate while working in the San Diego pen last season.

 

John Axford, Daniel Nava, Brandon Gomes Elect Free Agency

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Right-hander John Axford has elected free agency after refusing an outright assignment from the Rockies following last week’s DFA, the club announced. Also electing free agency today from last Friday’s wave of DFAs were outfielder Daniel Nava and right-hander Brandon Gomes, both of whom were designated for assignment by the Rays.

Axford, 32, was perhaps the most surprising of the bunch to be designated for assignment. The right-hander spent much of the season as Colorado’s closer and worked to generally successful results. Axford admittedly struggled through a dreadful stretch that lasted nearly two months and saw him yield 19 runs in 17 2/3 innings, but he was dominant outside of that spell (seven earned runs in 38 innings).

All told, the veteran righty finished with a 4.20 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 10.0 K/9, 5.2 BB/9 and a career-best 56.1 percent ground-ball rate. Axford did carry a hefty $6.5MM arbitration projection (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), but his production, when considering his home park, was 11 percent better than the league-average (by measure of ERA+). Fangraphs’ FIP- pegged him at 15 percent better than league average. Axford may not land a guarantee as large as his arbitration projection, but he does figure to draw some Major League offers this winter.

Nava, 33 in February, suffered through the worst season of his career but has been a regular or semi-regular contributor in each season dating back to 2010 (primarily with Boston). The switch-hitter batted only .194/.315/.245 in 166 plate appearances between the Red Sox and Rays this year but is a career .265/.358/.383 hitter overall and sports an even more impressive .281/.377/.409 batting line against right-handed pitching. Nava’s track record against righties and history of above-average defense in the outfield corners should at least generate interest in him as a platoon option. He had been projected to earn $1.9MM.

As for Gomes, the 31-year-old has been a frequent contributor to the Tampa Bay bullpen over the past five seasons, amassing a career 4.20 ERA in 167 innings — 59 of which came in 2015 (a career high). Gomes has averaged 7.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 with a 32.7 percent ground-ball rate and a 91 mph average fastball as a big leaguer. His lack of ground-balls and susceptibility to home runs makes him a better fit for a team in a large park (and certainly one away from the AL East’s collection of relatively small stadiums), but Gomes has a useful track record and should at the very least lock down an invitation to big league Spring Training with a real chance to crack the bullpen somewhere this winter. He’d been projected at $900K for the 2016 season.

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