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Predicting Tommy John Surgeries

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From Derick Velazquez in January to Lance Lynn in November, there were 112 ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injuries requiring reconstructive surgery — commonly called Tommy John Surgery (TJS) — in the 2015 season. Once a career-killer, UCL injuries have become a much more survivable injury over the last 30 years. And while more and more players are successfully returning from TJS, the procedure itself is a catastrophic event and requires a minimum of a year to recover.

That makes predicting UCL injuries a valuable and worthy endeavor. From the GM to the fantasy owner, being able to steer away from players with early warnings signs of UCL injuries can save a team’s season. The red flags for UCL injuries are not big, though, and many UCL injuries appear from nowhere. But using a large data set, culled from a variety of valuable resources, we can find the tiny red flags, the little baby red flags.

For the past seven months, I have been working with Tim Dierkes and his staff to develop a model to predict Tommy John surgery. The creation of this model required, quite literally, hundreds of thousands of lines of data and hundreds of man hours to combine and connect and test data from a variety of disparate sources. The project also took, as a sacrifice, one of my computer’s CPUs, which burned out shortly after completing some herculean computations. Fare thee well, i7.

[For further details on the process, results, and limitations of this study, please refer to Bradley’s MLBTR Podcast appearance and MLBTR Live Chat.]

The Results

The following is an attempt to quantify the risks that foreshadow potential UCL injuries. It is a combination of FanGraphs player data, Jeff Zimmerman’s DL data, PITCHf/x data, a bunch of hard work, and the keystone data: Jon Roegele’s TJS data, as stored on Zimmerman’s Heat Maps. We also checked our numbers against Baseballic.com, which houses arguably the most comprehensive injury data online.

And while most efforts at quantifying TJS risk have focused on recent appearances or recent pitches, our research takes a step further back and examines injury risks on an annual basis. It seeks to consider the problem from the GM’s view, and not the game manager’s.

The following names are sorted by greatest risk to least. For more details about the columns and the model that has created this data, continue reading after the embedded data.

Top-Bot

Click Here for Interactive Tableau and Full Results

The results include three terms that help define where the players fit:

  1. Prediction: My method of regressing the variables against pending TJS events resulted in a scale of 0 to 7, where 7 is the season before a player undergoes TJS. So our top player above, Brandon Morrow, ranks a 2.04 out of 7.00, meaning he is nowhere near a player about to absolutely have a shredded UCL. But it is certainly above average.
  2. Risk: This is the player’s prediction, divided by the highest possible result, 7. Then, I then multiply the result by the degree of confidence I have in the model, which is the R^2 of .22. R^2 is the statistical tool for checking how much the model explains the variation in the data. It is unconventional to multiply the regression result against the R^2, but I wanted to firmly assert that this model can only explain — at most — 22% of the variation we find in the TJS population. I have additionally listed the results as whole numbers in an effort to limit the perception of precision that a decimal place conveys.
  3. Risk+: This is merely a representation of how far above average or below average the player’s risk is. Here, 0% indicates a league-average risk; 100% is 2x the league average; 200% is 3x, and so on.

The Raw Numbers section includes the specific variables involved (explained in further detail in the “The Inputs” section). The Indexed Section includes the same data, but indexed (unless it is binary). That means the average is 100, twice the average is 200, and so on. This is the same as wRC+ or OPS+ or even Risk+, minus the % sign and with league average at 100 instead of 0%.

The Inputs

Over the preceding months, I have tested, prodded, and massaged many numbers. These were the factors that ultimately proved to have the strongest, most consistent relationships with impending TJS:

    1. LHP = 1: MLB pitching staffs have been 28% left-handed since 2010. TJS victims are 25% left-handed. Throwing the ball with your right hand — unlike Tommy John, the original — is the first tiny red flag.
    2. St. Dev. of Release Point: Previous studies (such as here and here) have attempted to connect release point variations with injuries. In the various models I created, release point had a consistent, while small, predictive power. I did not control for whether or not the pitcher appeared to have a deliberate difference in release points (as in, guys who pitch from multiple arm slots), but the infrequency of that trait does not seem to impact the variable.
    3. Days Lost to Arm/Shoulder Injury in 2015: After many different permutations of what constitutes “an injury” or an “arm,” I landed on this unusual definition of an arm/shoulder: It’s everything from the wrist back, including the elbow, shoulder, and — why not — the collarbone. So it’s basically the principle upper-body actors of the throwing motion. No fingers, no legs. So if a player injured this arm/shoulder/collarbone area, the sum of their missed days has a decently-sized red flag planted on it. This is among the most important predictive factors for TJS — which makes intuitive sense. Previous injuries could be a forewarning of a bigger injury, or it could be a contributing factor in creating an UCL injury as pitchers compensate for a tweak or a partially-recovered injury.
    4. Previous TJS?: This is a count of how many times the pitcher has gone under the knife. While only a small percentage of pitchers have Tommy John Surgery in their career, it strongly predicts a second surgery. Since 2010, there have been 10,000+ pitchers in the majors and minors combined. In that time, about 560 pitchers in the minors and majors have had TJS, and 57 were repeats. So the ratio of MLB and MiLB players to TJS victims is about 5%, but the repeat rate is over 10%. In other words, TJS begets more TJS.
    5. Hard Pitches: This variable is the sum of four-seam fastballs (FA), two-seam fastballs (FT), and sinking fastballs (SI) as categorized by the default (MLBAM) PITCHf/x algorithm. Various attempts to include different pitch types and pitch counts all proved inferior to just a raw count of the hardest three pitches that the PITCHf/x database records.
    6. ERA-: This is a park-, league-, and era-adjusted ERA, as reported by FanGraphs. This is the most puzzling part of the model, and the part I am least comfortable about, but a good ERA- (below 100) correlated weakly but negatively with good health. Possible bad data aside, the only theory I can muster to explain this is the idea that pitchers in the middle of good years are more likely to pitch on short rest or make emergency relief appearances in extra-inning games or key late-season games. The elite closer is more likely to pitch the three-consecutive-days marathon than the struggling middle reliever.
For some reason, there appears to be a connection between good ERAs and increased chances of TJS.
For some reason, there appears to be a connection between good ERAs and increased chances of TJS.
  1. Age: Here is another iffy variable. Why do older guys without a previous TJS have fewer Tommy John Surgeries? Well, for one, there are fewer older pitchers than younger pitchers, but even after we control for that, we see fewer 38-year-olds going under the knife. The reason is probably that fewer late-career guys see a major UCL tear as worth trying to overcome, and instead call it a career. Few can forget the end of Ramon Ortiz’s 2013 season, when the then-Blue Jays starter suffered what appeared to be an UCL injury and left the field in tears. Many assumed the 40-year-old righty would end his career then, but Ortiz was fortunate enough to avoid a UCL tear and managed to pitch in Mexico as recently as 2015. Had the 2014 injury been an UCL tear, Ortiz may have just ended his career then. There is also some survivor bias in here. Guys with truly durable UCLs are more likely to make it to their age-35 seasons (and beyond).

Here is a breakdown of the variable and coefficients involved:

Coefficients Standard Error P-value
Intercept 1.6319 0.27 0.00
Average of LHP? -0.1847 0.07 0.01
Avg Arm Slot STDDEV 1.6667 0.54 0.00
Arm/Shoulder? 0.0110 0.00 0.00
Previous TJS? 0.2981 0.07 0.00
Hard Pitches 0.0001 0.00 0.15
ERA- -0.0020 0.00 0.04
Age -0.0524 0.01 0.00

It is important to remember that the coefficients here do not visibly represent the strength of each variable because they each use a different scales. For instance, the largest Previous TJS is 2, but the largest Hard Pitches number is 2,488. (That said, Previous TJS is a much more predictive variable.)

P-values, in short, are the probabilities that the given variable is actually meaningless. Traditionalist might bristle at some of the P-values involved there. I personally find the customary cut-off P-values of .10, .05, or .01 artificial and unnecessarily limiting. Others are welcome to disagree.

Why is Player X So High/Low?

So your favorite pitcher is Brandon Morrow, and you’re distressed to see him top the charts here. Let’s look at why:

  • In 2015, Morrow missed 155 days after having debris removed from his shoulder. That’s 22x the league average among pitchers that completed at least 30 innings. No other pitcher on this list missed more days. (The average time missed was a little under 7 days.)
  • And despite missing most of the year, he still managed to throw a large amount of fastballs because, as Brooks Baseball puts it, he “relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (95mph) and Slider (88mph)…” Morrow threw his fastball almost 60% of the time in 2015.
  • Lastly, he is just barely on the wrong side of the average age of this group. While the age variable is still an odd one, it is important to keep in mind that TJS culls the herd in the early years. If Morrow were 36 and coming off an injured season of this magnitude, he would still probably be the most likely TJS candidate, but he’d get a few bonus points for proving his UCL could have lasted this long in the first place.

I am pleased to see the likes of R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Bartolo Colon at the bottom of the list. They are older pitchers with incredibly steady release points and no recent injury history (Dickey, of course, doesn’t have a UCL in the first place, though obviously the statistical algorithm in question doesn’t take such factors into consideration. We left his name in the results regardless of that fact, for those wondering why, as a means of illustrating the type of pitcher likely to rank low on the list). Of course, these guys, at their age, are perhaps even more likely to be ineffective and retire mid-season than they are to suffer a catastrophic injury, but that is neither here nor there.

Free agent Tim Lincecum also makes the list, and in a very positive way with a risk that is 51% below the league average. While any GM or fantasy owner looking into a Lincecum 2016 season will no doubt be aware of his injury history, it is a great sign for the two-time Cy Young winner hoping to move forward in his likely-post-Giants career. The strongest contributing factors to Lincecum’s risk, however, are his inconsistent release point and the fact he makes a living off mixing up four generally slower pitches. While he has not shown great effectiveness in the past four seasons, avoiding TJS could buy him enough time to find a rhythm with his greatly decreased velocity.

Young Marlins ace Jose Fernandez only missed 35 days due to a biceps issue — if we don’t count the 97 days he missed recovering from TJS in 2015 — but that previous elbow operation combined with his young age suggests he is at greater risk of a second TJS heading into 2016. Again, we need a caveat here to remind us that age, while a predictor of TJS, may not be a good predictor of UCL tears.

Mark Buehrle, Bartolo Colon, and Eric Stults all have negative risk rates. Does that mean they are growing additional ulnar collateral ligaments? Yes. Almost certainly.

Rejected Variables

There are a few variables not included that might seem intuitive or necessary to include, but ultimately did not make the cut:

  1. Velocities: Early versions of this model included pitch velocities, but it became apparent after later revisions that pitch velocities — at least given the present variables — was serving as a poor proxy for the number of hard pitches thrown. It follows that guys with fast fastballs throw those fastballs frequently. Take, for instance, freshly Rockie’d reliever Jake McGee, who has a scintillating fastball and rumors of maybe another pitch. Throwing hard may not actually lead to elbow injuries, but throwing a LOT of hard pitches might.
  2. Other Pitch Frequencies: Throwing breaking stuff did not seem to have a meaningful relationship with TJS events — at least above and beyond the relationship with hard pitch totals. That does not mean sliders might not result in shoulder injuries or knuckleballers don’t have more fingernail issues, but in the given sample, with the given scope of our investigation, breaking and off-speed pitches did not create meaningful relationships.
  3. Altitude of Home Park: Despite the considerable effort it took to match up each player’s home park with their park’s altitude, this attribute appears to have no effect on TJS. One might suspect that environmental issues impact the prevalence of certain injuries, but we can cross off altitude for now.
  4. Non-Arm Injuries: I figured leg injuries — given how important legs are in delivering a pitch — or general injuries might have a connection to TJS if in no other way than causing inconsistency in the pitcher’s delivery or release. But once we add in the arm/shoulder injury days into the calculation — along with previous TJ operations — the value of other injuries goes away.
  5. Injuries in Previous Seasons: Despite connecting players up with five years of injury history, the unstable relationships (i.e. high P-values) also came with negative coefficient — suggesting an injury in 2013 makes you stronger against a possible UCL injury in 2015. That makes no sense.

Room for Improvement

Without comprehensive dumps from the PITCHf/x data at Brooks Baseball or the Baseballic.com injury database, and without good information on late-career UCL injuries that result in retirement instead of TJS, and without medical records from these players themselves, we will always be playing catch-up with our prediction models. If I am a team considering one of the players listed above, I would defer to medical and pitching experts opinions following a thorough medical examination.

But from our perspective, from the data available in the public sphere, these are the best, strongest tiny red flags I could find. And I hope and expect they will push this field forward. If you’d like to discuss my Tommy John research further, check back at MLBTR at 7:30pm central time, as I’ll be doing a live chat.

A special thanks to Jon Proulx who helped do some very boring data work with me!

Nats Have Explored Extension For Harper, But No Talks Now

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GM Mike Rizzo says the Nationals have considered an extension for Bryce Harper, but there have been no formal talks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, says he and the Nationals (with whom he has a strong relationship) have had informal discussions about the possibility of a Harper extension.

“My attitude is that you certainly want to know what they have to say,” Boras says. “Then, you talk about what they want to do. Historically, these type of players, it’s very difficult because often there are not player comparables that drive this contract.”

It would, of course, be a monumental development if the Nationals were to extend Harper at this stage. He is only three years from becoming a free agent at the tender age of 26, and if he stays healthy and continues to play at anything close to the elite level at which he performed last year, his next contract will likely become the largest the sport has ever seen.

When a reporter recently mentioned to Harper the possibility he might eventually receive a $400MM contract, Harper said, “Don’t sell me short,” implying that he might be able to get even more. It was, perhaps, a brash response, but it likely was not an inaccurate one. Boras, for his part, seems to be thinking of Harper’s next deal in much broader terms than are typically discussed for individual contracts.

“Player comparables are certainly evidence of the past market. But the true evidence of the current market, economic value of franchises, and the revenues of this game are going to be different three years from now,” he says. “It’s not the amount, but whether it’s good business or not. … There may be incentives that excite [the Nationals]. You look at A-Rod when he signed with the Texas Rangers, and what it did for the club’s TV deal. When he was traded to the Yankees, you saw what it did for the YES Network.”

It’s well known that Boras likes his clients to test the waters of free agency, and given the likelihood that Harper could break records, it seems unlikely that the Nationals will make an offer significant enough to prevent him from hitting the market. There have been previous indications that the Nats aren’t even making a Harper extension a top priority, at least not right now. Both sides, however, appear to be leaving the door open a bit, and if formal discussions do eventually take place, they could go to some very interesting places, since it’s hard to know what a Harper deal ought to look like, either in terms of dollars or duration.

West Notes: Hinch, Wilson, Ethier

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The differences between manager A.J. Hinch’s tenures with the Diamondbacks and Astros are a microcosm of changes within baseball as a whole, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. In 2009, Hinch’s hiring in Arizona was received negatively within the injury, since Hinch had been a former player but had little further experience. Now, though, such hires are common — think of Mike Matheny of the Cardinals or Brad Ausmus of the Tigers, for example. After being fired, Hinch took a job in the Padres’ front office before Houston hired him. The path from the front office to managing is becoming increasingly common, as organizations increasingly appreciate the benefits of having a front office and a field staff that communicate well with one another.

Hinch’s time with Arizona didn’t go well, and he was fired after barely over a year. Rosenthal quotes not only Hinch but some of his former players suggesting that Hinch’s introduction to big-league managing didn’t always go smoothly. But given the way the managerial position has changed since then, perhaps Hinch and the team were, in some ways, ahead of the curve. “We were onto something then,” says Hinch of his time with the Diamondbacks. “It wasn’t accepted as freely as it is now. … My career didn’t really warrant acceptance in that regard. Some of these other guys had better playing careers. It became a touch easier for each guy progressively to take over a team. But if it wouldn’t have been for that first time, I don’t think I would have gotten this second chance.” Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • Angels GM Billy Eppler says that the team is happy with what they’ve learned from an MRI starting pitcher C.J. Wilson underwent on Monday, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. Wilson merely has tendinitis in his throwing shoulder. He had reported discomfort in the shoulder on Saturday.
  • The Dodgers are not concerned about Andre Ethier earning 10-and-5 rights in April, Bill Plunkett of the Register writes (Twitter links). “When a guy is an important and productive part of your team, you don’t spend your time worrying about whether you can trade him,” says GM Farhan Zaidi. The Dodgers have two years and $38MM left on Ethier’s current five-year deal, including a $2.5MM buyout on a 2018 option that can become guaranteed if he receives regular playing time. He hit .294/.366/.486 in a bounce-back season last year.

West Notes: Rollins, Giants, Lucroy, Astros, Angels

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The Giants had interest in Jimmy Rollins before the veteran infielder ultimately agreed to a minor league deal with the White Sox, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Rosenthal adds that the Giants would have used Rollins as a super utility player, taking advantage of his ability to switch-hit. Via Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (on Twitter), Giants GM Bobby Evans has confirmed the Giants were quite interested in Rollins, although they couldn’t promise the kind of playing time he would be able to get in Chicago (which has a considerably less stable shortstop situation). Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • In other news about player acquisitions that never came to be, Rosenthal tweets that the Astros tried to acquire Jonathan Lucroy from the Brewers last month but were not able to come to terms. Jason Castro is eligible for free agency following the 2016 and Lucroy is controllable for an additional year (and for a very modest $5.25MM or a $250K buyout), so perhaps it’s no surprise that David Stearns’ former employers called him about a possible trade.
  • The Angels would prefer to have more lefty relief help, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. They’re without a lefty specialist, and the only lefty who currently figures to be in their bullpen is Jose Alvarez. The team does have additional lefty bullpen candidates in Lucas Luetge and Rob Rasmussen. “To have a lefty specialist available is a tool you’d like you to have in bullpen, but we’ll see where we are,” says manager Mike Scioscia. Fletcher doesn’t say whether the Angels actually plan to pursue more lefties, but even if they do, perhaps the issue isn’t so pressing. Unsurprisingly, the free agent market is a bit thin, and Scioscia and the Angels have gotten very good results with heavily right-handed bullpens in the past, such as their 2003 and 2004 ’pens, which were elite very limited contributions from left-handers.

Pirates Notes: McCutchen, Stewart, Glasnow

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Andrew McCutchen reiterates that he’s interested in sticking with the Pirates, ESPN’s Jayson Stark reports. “[E]veryone knows I want to be here,” McCutchen says. “So that’s nothing new to anyone.” McCutchen has repeatedly maintained his interest in staying in Pittsburgh beyond the expiration of his contract following the 2018 season (or the 2017 season, in the unlikely event that the Bucs don’t exercise his 2018 option), and he’s also said he doesn’t define himself in terms of how much money he makes. According to Stark, though, McCutchen was cautious when asked whether he would take a hometown discount to stay with the Bucs. “I still stick with the [idea that] money doesn’t define me because it doesn’t,” he says. “But it’s not altered like that in this game. No one plays for free. People rarely ever work for free. But you know, whenever that time comes, that time comes. But I’m trying not to think about it too much.” The question, from the Pirates’ perspective, is whether there’s a way to extend McCutchen that makes sense within their budget. They already control him through his age-31 season, and they might not want to pay what the market would consider a fair salary for a player of McCutchen’s talent — surely over $20MM a year — for what could turn out to be decline years in his thirties. Here’s more on the Bucs.

  • Backup catcher Chris Stewart is happy to have received a multi-year deal this winter, MLB.com’s Adam Berry writes. Stewart’s deal was modest — he’ll get just $2.75MM total for 2016 and 2017, along with a $250K buyout on a cheap option in 2018. But it gives him more of a sense of stability than he’s previously had in his career. “Knowing that I’ll be here for more than a year — hopefully three or more, that’s the goal — that’s something I’m not used to,” he says. Stewart is slated to back up Francisco Cervelli in 2016, and then could back up Elias Diaz, a prospect with a good defensive reputation, in 2017 if Cervelli isn’t extended.
  • Top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow appears likely to make an impact sometime in the coming season, but the Pirates also considered promoting him during the 2015 campaign, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. “We had legitimate discussions about (calling up) Tyler last year,” says Pirates GM Neal Huntington. “Ultimately, we felt it was in his and our best interest to continue the development and command of the fastball, the consistency of his breaking ball, the ability to throw it for a strike and for a chase, and to develop the changeup (in Triple-A).” He now seems likely to have to wait to be promoted until June, after the passing of the Super Two threshold. That’s what the Bucs did with Gerrit Cole three years ago, and Cole says it had no ill effects on him. “It’s actually better; you kind of light a fire under somebody,” Cole says “And he gets an opportunity to fine-tune his routine.”

Cubs Sign Manny Parra To Minor League Deal

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6:36pm: Parra will receive $520K plus a potential $1.28M in bonuses if he makes the Majors, Jon Heyman tweets.

9:08am: The Cubs announced that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Manny Parra to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training (Twitter link via the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales). Parra is represented by CAA.

Last year, the 33-year-old Parra logged a 3.90 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 45.9 percent ground-ball rate in 32 1/3 innings for the division-rival Reds. That marked his third straight season with Cincinnati  after five years with the Brewers, so by signing with the Cubs, he’ll continue on in the only division he’s known (at least for the next few weeks).

Milwaukee tried Parra out as a starting pitcher for much of his time in the organization, but he’s struggled to a 5.44 ERA out of the rotation in his career (74 starts) as compared to a 4.01 ERA coming out of the bullpen. Right-handed batters have given Parra plenty of trouble in his big league career, hitting him at a .290/.370/.440 clip, whereas lefties have posted a .254/.330/.391 batting line. Those career marks against lefties are somewhat misleading, however, as Parra has excelled against southpaws since being removed from the rotation. Over the course of his three years in Cincinnati, Parra faced 249 left-handed batters and held them to a paltry .222/.285/.333 slash.

The Cubs already have a number of left-handed relief options in camp, including Clayton Richard, Travis Wood and Rex Brothers — all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Beyond that trio, lefties Jack Leathersich and Edgar Olmos are in camp as non-roster invitees. Suffice it to say, Parra faces significant competition and perhaps an uphill battle as he seeks to make the roster.

MLBTR Mailbag: QOs, Snell, A’s, Pirates, Simmons, Jackson

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Spring Training is here, but with a few high-profile players still available via free agency and rosters far from settled, the stove is still hot here at MLBTR. Here’s today’s mailbag.

Why hasn’t anyone organized a sign and trade for one of the qualifying offer players? The original team could sign them and trade them for a prospect, saving the acquiring team a draft pick and the former team a prospect. I know they can’t be traded without the player’s consent, but the player would obviously have negotiated the contract with the new team. Or even a team like the Braves signing a QO player (forfeiting their second-rounder) and getting a prospect back. — James M.

It’s too blatantly a means of circumventing the qualifying offer process as stipulated within the Collective Bargaining Agreement. I realize that it’s possible that the Mets will end up trading Alejandro De Aza this spring, but it’s pretty clear to see that New York didn’t think it had a real chance of re-signing Cespedes when De Aza was signed. That they were able to land him a month later after Cespedes’ market didn’t develop the way that his camp hoped, De Aza was relegated to a fifth outfielder, more or less. That’s sub-optimal for team and player, and I think the Commissioner’s Office would be able to see that in approving the trade. Something like the Braves signing Ian Desmond and trading him 24 hours later wouldn’t get that benefit of the doubt.

What are the thoughts on the Blake Snell extension rumors? He hasn’t even made an MLB start. — Zachary H.

The Rays have every incentive to lock Snell up as early as possible if they believe that he’s on a path to becoming a mid-rotation starter or better. Snell is one of the game’s 20 or so best prospects, and by going year to year through the arbitration process with the Rays, he could earn something in the vicinity of $20-25MM over the life of the six years (well, seven, realistically, as the Rays will almost assuredly keep him in the minors for three weeks at the beginning of the season to extend control by one year, barring an extension) that he’s guaranteed to be with the team. There’s huge financial incentive to take a slight risk — previous contracts of this ilk have cost $10-15MM total — in order to lock in most or all of a player’s arbitration years well in advance in exchange for discounted club options on his free-agent seasons. Not only does it potentially give them an above-average starter at a fraction of his market cost (assuming the options come with a relatively modest salary), it gives Tampa Bay a huge trade chip down the line if the team sees fit. If the Rays are confident in their projections of Snell, there’s little reason not to try for some kind of long-term deal. Realistically, this probably goes on with top prospects quite a bit more than we hear about.

From Snell’s perspective, it’s a huge risk; if he has any degree of success, that type of contract will be among the most team-friendly in the game. On the other hand, if he has an injury (as lefty Cory Luebke did when he twice had Tommy John surgery after signing a four-year, $12MM deal after one full season in the Majors) or simply struggles in his initial Major League trials (a la Jon Singleton, who also signed long-term prior to his MLB debut), then he comes out quite a bit ahead of where he’d have otherwise been. It’s always a balance of the human factors that drive the player to seek his first fortune and the business reasons for betting on himself.

Now that the A’s have their #4 power hitter in Khris Davis, will they finally be viewed as legit team that can make the playoffs? — Ross K.

With all due respect to Davis and the A’s, adding another 25- to 30-homer bat doesn’t really change a huge amount for me in terms of their projections. I’m still concerned with Oakland’s patchwork options at the infield corners and Billy Butler at DH. And, in the rotation, there’s virtually no certainty beyond Sonny Gray. I’m a fan of Jesse Hahn’s ability, but he’s shown clear durability issues, and beyond him the A’s will rely on Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt, Rich Hill, Aaron Brooks and still-injured starters Jarrod Parker and Henderson Alvarez to round out the rotation. Sean Manaea could eventually help in 2016, but they have a lot that needs to go right. I think the AL is deep enough and talented enough (Oakland included) that any of the 15 teams could be a playoff team if you squint, but adding Davis — a left-field only bat with a shaky glove that’s being asked to cover a huge, expansive space — doesn’t put them over the top in any sort of way for me.

Were the Pirates right to keep closer Mark Melancon, or should they have dealt him to save money and to fill a starting pitching need? — Nick C.

If Pittsburgh could’ve flipped Melancon for a starting pitcher as they did with the comparably priced Neil Walker, that would have been my preferred route. That said, there’s no direct evidence such a possibility was available to the Pirates, and it’s hard to know what Melancon’s market might have been. Two other top closers in Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles returned impressive trade packages this winter, but Melancon’s market might have been complicated somewhat by the presence of Kimbrel, Giles, Aroldis Chapman and others potentially available. And as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth has noted elsewhere, the current mini-trend of building super-bullpens (as Boston has done with Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Carson Smith and the the Yankees have done with Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances) seems based in large part on acquiring pitchers who rack up strikeouts. That’s not Melancon — as great as he was last season, his strikeout rate fell to 7.3 K/9, and his average fastball velocity dipped as well, although he remained excellent at inducing ground balls and limiting walks. I’m sure there are 29 other teams that would love to have Melancon in their bullpen, but it’s unclear how many might have been willing to pay the kind of price the Pirates would have wanted.

Are we undervaluing the addition of Andrelton Simmons for the Angels? It’s a major acquisition that seemingly flew under the radar because the majority of the value is tied to defense. He’s likely a three- to four-win improvement at shortstop with the glove alone. Isn’t it difficult to quantify how much his defense really helps the team? — Jacob S.

I don’t think anyone undervalued the improvement that came with adding Simmons at the time of the deal. The buzz surrounding him has somewhat cooled now, though, due to the Angels’ still-glaring question marks at second base and in left field. Had the Halos added another legitimate infielder or added a left field bat following the acquisition of Simmons, there’d probably be quite a bit more hype surrounding the additions made by Billy Eppler and his staff this offseason. I don’t know that I agree with Simmons being a four-win improvement over Erick Aybar, but I do feel that he’s a notable upgrade, and even though they parted with Sean Newcomb to get him, the trade has significant long-term value for the Angels. All that said, the reason it’s drawing less attention now is that the Angels kicked their winter off with a bang but followed with virtually no moves of consequence. Right or wrong, that’s going to cause the move to be overshadowed.

To me the Reds make a good fit for Austin Jackson.  Would a one-year deal in the range of $5MM plus an option do it?  Jackson would give the Reds depth, flexibility, decent leadoff insurance, and with a good season, a trade target for a prospect.  Your thoughts? — Brian F.

I don’t know that Jackson is signing for as little as $5MM — Juan Uribe just got about that much despite being eight years older — and adding the option wouldn’t be something that Jackson or agent Scott Boras would want if they do settle on a one-year deal. If it’s a one-year deal, it’ll be one signed with an eye toward retrying on next year’s weak market.

As for the Reds’ end of the equation, while there’s sense to it, they haven’t really shown the desire to add veterans on big league deals, especially not ones that will potentially take time away from younger players. The Reds still need to get Billy Hamilton regular playing time with the hope that he can develop some semblance of OBP skills, and they want to get long looks at players like Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and, eventually, Jesse Winker. The presence of Jay Bruce will stand in the way of those players getting at-bats somewhat as it is, and adding Jackson to the mix will only add another roadblock. On paper, I agree that there’s some sense to your scenario for the Reds, but it doesn’t seem realistic in the end.

Bautista “Not Willing To Negotiate” After Naming Asking Price

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Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista met with multiple reporters at the Jays’ Spring Training facility in Dunedin, Fla. today, and a potential extension was among the topics discussed. However, as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi write, Joey Bats isn’t interested in giving the Blue Jays any form of hometown discount. Bautista, who is eligible for free agency next offseason, said that he met with the Blue Jays two weeks ago and named his asking price. Toronto president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins sought to negotiate, but that isn’t in Bautista’s plans.

“I’m not willing to negotiate,” Bautista candidly explained. “I don’t think there should be any negotiation. I think I’ve proven myself.” 

It’s hard to argue with the notion that Bautista has done anything short of that since signing his five-year, $65MM contract with the Blue Jays prior to the 2011 season. Since that time, Bautista has posted a .270/.393/.540 batting line with 173 home runs. Even when factoring in his hitter-friendly home park, Bautista’s bat has been 55 percent better than the league-average hitter, according to OPS+, and 54 percent better than average, per wRC+. Both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs agree that he’s been worth between 26 and 27 wins above replacement in that time frame.

That production, relative to his cost, makes it relatively easy to see why Bautista would say, “In my eyes, I’ve given this organization a five-year hometown discount already.” Of course, Bautista knew the risk he was taking in signing that deal; the possibility always existed that he’d continue the torrid pace from his 2010 breakout and turn the contract into a massive bargain, just as the Blue Jays knew there was a possibility that he’d decline and leave them holding one of Major League Baseball’s least desirable contracts.

Bautista tells reporters that he met with Shapiro and Atkins for about 15 minutes. “I didn’t want to waste any time,” Bautista explained. “If this is going to happen, I think it should be natural, organic, quick and easy, it shouldn’t be a pull and tug about a few dollars here or there. I didn’t want to waste any time, I didn’t want to waste their time or their effort, so they can start planning ahead, and if it’s not going to happen they have plenty of time to do so.”

It’s unclear what Bautista specified in terms of years or dollars, although a five-year deal certainly seems like a possibility. Chisholm, in fact, tweets that Bautista was asked whether he thinks he can play for another five years, and the slugger was “emphatic” in responding in the affirmative. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk examined Bautista’s extension candidacy, noting that Bautista seems very likely to be able to secure at least a four-year deal at a premium rate — well north of $20MM — as a free agent next winter, assuming a typical Bautista season. I’d agree that a healthy four-year deal is a safe expectation, with a five-year deal certainly on the table should he approach last year’s production.

AL East Notes: Vazquez, Rays, O’s, Marmol, Shreve

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Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez seems to be ahead of schedule in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.  Vazquez tells Bradford that he had a scare last week when he felt some discomfort in his surgically repaired right elbow, but the doctors informed him that it stemmed from muscle pain and scar tissue as opposed to any sort of notable setback in his recovery.  Vazquez is already throwing to bases from behind the plate, though Bradford notes that it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for game action when games kick off on Feb. 29.  Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the Rays’ focus on adding bats this winter will not only help the offense, but also help the pitching staff and bullpen by theoretically sparing them from so many close games.  “When we’re playing in one-run games every night, it’s tough. It’s tough to piece together the innings and make sure that we keep everyone fresh,” president of baseball operations Matt Silverman said.
  • There’s no reason to worry about Yovani Gallardo passing his physical with the Orioles, based on what Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun hears.  Encina also points out that though Gallardo turns 30 later this month, the righty has a strong track record of durability.  Gallardo’s physical is said to have taken place around noon today, so the deal could potentially be finalized and formally announced by the team at some point this afternoon.
  • The Orioles have been heavily connected to Dexter Fowler, though they’re also looking at other position player options, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Pedro Alvarez, who was rumored as a Baltimore target earlier this offseason, is still being considered by the team.
  • The Red Sox believe that Carlos Marmol can be a relief force again after correcting a flaw in his delivery, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes.  Marmol’s already-shaky control was worsened by a high arm slot over the last two years, as observed by Boston director of pitching analysis and development Brian Bannister.  If this theory is correct and Marmol can get back on track, the Sox may have landed a big strikeout reliever at the cost of just a minor league deal.
  • The Yankees’ big three bullpen aces have drawn much of the attention this winter, though the rest of New York’s relief corps will also play an important role in the team’s success.  To this end, Chasen Shreve will be a big figure for the Yankees, though his late-season fade is a concern, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  Fatigue or over-thinking may have played a role in Shreve’s late-season struggles, though Brian McCann feels that Shreve was tipping his pitches.

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