During the month of May, we saw a pair of key players decide to forgo free agency. Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg, by far the best projected free agent from the 2016-17 class, signed a seven-year, $175MM extension that includes heavy deferrals and two opt-out clauses. I believe Strasburg left at least $50MM on the table in making the surprising decision to sign. With Strasburg off the market, we’re unlikely to see any $100MM pitchers this winter after four hurlers reached that mark last offseason.
Francisco Cervelli, projected to be the best catcher on the 2016-17 free agent market, signed a three-year, $31MM extension with the Pirates. Cervelli may have left $20MM or more on the table in signing his new deal.
So, we’ve lost the #1 and #10 free agents on last month’s power rankings. Below, I’ve ranked the remaining projected free agents by earning power. You can view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents here.
1. Yoenis Cespedes. With 15 home runs in his first 193 plate appearances, Cespedes has a good chance to reach 40 for the first time. He’s increasingly likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his contract with the Mets. The 30-year-old slugger could be the only free agent to reach $100MM this offseason, underlining the lack of relatively young high-end players on the market.
2. Jose Bautista. The most noteworthy part of Bautista’s May was his run-in with Rougned Odor’s fist. Bautista served a one-game suspension for his role in the ensuing brawl. At the moment, I’m projecting a four-year deal in the $100MM range for Bautista, who turns 36 in October.
3. Josh Reddick. Reddick fractured his left thumb during a headfirst slide on May 19th. While the injury will not require surgery, he’s expected to be out until late June. Reddick was swinging a hot bat leading up to the injury. Assuming he continues to produce upon his return, I don’t see the injury affecting his earning power. I can see a five-year deal approaching $100MM.
4. Kenley Jansen. Not much has changed with Jansen, who has a shot at a five-year deal. It seems likely that a reliever will end up with the largest pitching contract of the offseason.
5. Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion recovered from an ugly April to post a solid May. He could wind up with a three-year deal with a salary in excess of $20MM.
6. Dexter Fowler. Fowler continued to rake in the month of May, hitting .295/.403/.476. He currently ranks third among position players with 3.2 wins above replacement, after Mike Trout and Manny Machado. I’m projecting a four-year deal in excess of $60MM for Fowler, after he was left with a disappointing one-year deal last winter.
7. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman made his Yankees debut on May 9th after serving a 30-day suspension for a domestic violence incident. He’s looked as dominant as ever, and a large free agent payday is in the offing. The question is whether Chapman can get a five-year deal, in light of that October incident.
8. Neil Walker. Walker posted another solid month for the Mets. In a thin market, perhaps he could land a Chase Headley contract (four years, $52MM) if he keeps going strong.
9. Rich Hill. Hill now has 11 starts under his belt this year with a 2.25 ERA and 10.4 K/9. The southpaw, who turns 37 next March, has come a long way in the last year. He appears to have a good chance at a four-win season, which generally seemed impossible for most of the last decade. Despite Hill’s age, I think a three-year deal in excess of $40MM is within reach.
10. Mark Trumbo. After another big power month, Trumbo is now tied for third in the AL with 15 home runs. If he winds up near 40 home runs this year, a strong three-year deal becomes possible. However, his value is hurt by his defensive limitations.
Carlos Gomez, who was ranked fifth on this list last month, has dropped out of the top ten. The hope is that he’ll finally start hitting after serving a May DL stint for bruised ribs. However, at this point he’s a candidate to take a one-year deal to rebuild value.
Four players were very close to making the list: catchers Matt Wieters and Wilson Ramos, and outfielders Michael Saunders and Ian Desmond. Each of them appears to be setting up for a three-year deal at this point. If four years starts to seem likely for any of these players, they’ll have a spot in the top ten.
Reddick 20 mm a year?
4/60 seems like a floor. 5/100 is definitely his ceiling, but it could be closer to that than his floor in a thin year, impact position player talentwise.
I agree. He’s not 20M per year. Not sure if go above 15M.
Reddick goes above 15 million I’m pretty sure. Remember he is a pretty good defensive OF, can run the bases well, hits for a decent average and has a fair amount of pop in his bat. And if he lands in the right park, he could hit more HRs.
His injury history would probably reduce his value a little. I’d guess he gets a contract of 4 years/78-80 million if he performs well when he returns from injury with incentive clauses that would boost that number.
Rich Hill is Jamie Moyer 2.0
Haha hopefully he can play as long as Moyer did!
If somebody gave him three years for 40 million they would be out of their mind
One 4 win year would basically justify the contract.
$10/win???
3.33m per win.
3.33m per WAR. 10m per win would be if he were signing a 1 year/40m contract.
There were probably some people who thought 1/6 was an awful deal for the A’s to do with Hill based on four starts. He’s not a velocity guy, so if you’re OK with the health, I think 3/42 would be fine for Hill and even could have upside.
Lack of any starting pitching Hill will get even more if he gets to 15 wins this year. Starting pitching value is only going up.
no one cares about wins
Wins and losses for a pitcher mean nothing
Don’t speak for everyone. What you mean is YOU don’t care about wins.
No intelligent fan or front office cares about pitcher wins. Better? K good for you!
15 wins means durability and you pitched very good. Now go check how many starters from last year . Only 13 of them and all pitched over 180 innings.
I’ll put my intelligence up against you any day. Just because you are not smart enough to see relevance in a stat that has been around for 150 years, don’t feel bad. I can’t wait until the next generation treat you like you know nothing. It is coming a lot sooner than you think.
Old Man Yells at Cloud
Cloud gets last word because that’s important.
Rich Hill? Thats like 1 win a season
I think he in his second coming of at a boy but he won’t get more than 2 years 20 million > proud of the ex Cubbie
Please rephrase the Rich Hill “four-win season” comment. With his career, it is very confusing, and I had to look him up to make sure he is, in fact, 8-3 lol.
4 WAR
Wins Above Replacement… I don’t think anyone looks at record anymore
Obviously someone does or else he wouldn’t have made that comment.
Dexter Fowler was not “left with a disappointing one year deal”. He had a lucrative multi-year offer from the Orioles and chose to take the one year deal from the Cubs.
3/33 was not a lucrative or even good offer from the Orioles. That would have been disappointing as well.
Dexter will finally move on but will forever be a folk Hero for coming back to Chicago but he will get a 3 year/ the Cubs shouldn’t put the tag on him for a prospect (draft pick) let him go bring up Albert Almora.
The cubs should absolutely qo him, if they didn’t handshake not to and it’s still a thing
Why wouldn’t they QO him? There’s absolutely no reason not to.
Can’t blame him, he wants to win
Lol lucrative… He got 1/13 with the cubs, so the o’s offered 2/20 more. He wanted the opt out because he knows he’s an above average player,
He passed up bigger money to play for a team with a good chance to win the World Series. Also, he insisted on an opt-out clause after one year and Duquette (O’s GM) has said to all free agents: no opt-out clauses. We make a financial commitment to you, we want the same back.
It’s more likely that he took the QO because he’ll get bigger money in the weak 2017 FA market. This years market was too deep for him to land a good deal.
He didn’t take a QO, he simply resigned on a 1-year deal with the Cubs.
If Desmond keeps raking, he gets 4 years easily as a power-hitting centerfielder with a plus throwing arm. Even if he struggles a bit, 3 years, $45mm+ seems very possible.
Steve Adams agrees with that. I’m not quite there yet on Desmond. But I can see him making this list in time.
I smell Edwin and Jose going to Red Sox next year…
One or the other to replace Ortiz, maybe, Both seems unlikely.
Just like Hanley and the Panda went there last season
If Panda spends another day in a Red Sox uniform it’ll be riding the pine.
If anyone should replace ortiz it should be hanley
I can easily see Edwin, seeing how Ortiz is leaving. He also provides a “Grandpa Ross” sort of vibe being a mentor to young hitters
Is there any basis for thinking Encarnacion make a good mentor? He seems like a happy guy and of course he knows how to hit but are there stories about how he helped xyz payers with whatever? He’s not even terribly old at like 33.
1. Cespedes – 6/138M
2. Joey Bats – 3/81M
3. Reddick – 5/110M
4. Jansen – 4/52M
5. EE 4/76M
6. Fowler – 4/64M
7. Chapman 3/36M
8. Walker 4/52M
9. Rich Hill 2/24M
10. Trumbo 3/45M
You realize cespedes only got 3/75 after a 7 win season right? Reddick isn’t getting 100 mil as a platoon guy with a babip 70 points above his career average. I would guess he is in the 4/60 category with an opt out after yr 3 or something.
You realize Cespedes only got 3/75M after 2 quality months, and being the 3rd or 4th best FA outfielder? Hes the guy this offseason, and is showing elite production for a more extended period of time.
Reddick is a quality bat with an elite glove. Hes 3 years younger than Alex Gordon who got 4/72M
Cespedes was worth 4 bwar with Detroit last year pre trade f.y.i I was referencing him in regards to Reddick though, that cespedes didn’t crack 100 mil after a 7 win season there is 0 chance Reddick does after getting hurt again, only playing vs righties and he is no longer elite defensively… He has been negative the last 2 years per uzr and roughly average per br, at a non premium defensive position. Once his babip stabilizes he will be back to his normal line. So again I see no way he gets a bigger deal than say Fowler.
I agree with you on most things but bookmark this and lets compare notes next year.
I think:
1. Cespedes – 6/158MM
2. Joey Bats – 4/95MM
3. Reddick – 5/108MM
4. Jansen – 5/60MM
5. EE 4/50MM
6. Fowler – 5/64MM
7. Chapman 4/45MM
8. Walker 3/42MM
9. Rich Hill 4/54MM
10. Trumbo 3/40MM
My biggest disagreement would be hill getting 2/24. That seems very low even if he spent time on the DL.
It says something when the best starter on the market is a 36 year old comeback player. Gotta imagine there will be a high price in the trade market.
Ian Desmond should be in the top 10, He killed it in May and if he continues on his pace hes up for a huge pay day.
The super utility man if Rangers take advantage of his skill set could make a lot of money in a 3 year deal
No need to do that. He has shown the ability to be an average to above average defensive CF with pop. Great production for that position.
Calm down Satan…
Desmond looks really good. Is he a corner outfielder or CF long term?
Depends on the team but he could be a starting CF imo
I think he has been better in CF honestly. His arm makes him a game changer. He has adjusted fantastically to the OF
Ian Desmond’s season looks eerily like his 2013 season, which was a great year for him.
2013: 6.6% BB%, 22.1% K%, .173 ISO, .336 BABIP, .280/.331/.453, 116 wRC+, 21 SB/1.9 BsR, +4.8 WAR in 655 PA
2016: 6.3% BB%, 21.1% K%, .180 ISO, .346 BABIP, .291/.341/.471, 115 wRC+, 10 SB/3.9 BsR, +2.1 WAR in 223 PA.
His plunged K rate is huge. Getting away from the 28-29.5% K rate of 2014-2015 is a giant leap in the right direction. He cut his K rate, kept his walks, kept his 2013-2014 ISO, and returned to that .325+ BABIP level he used to reside at (career .323 BABIP). He’s also taken to CF well so far. Desmond currently’s got a fair shot at going 20-20, and for any GMs left who like RBI/R, he’s on ‘pace’ to go 90/100, and is in a solid lineup, so that could last. He’ll get his with a QO, but by cutting his strikeouts and fielding well in center, he has a lot more appeal now. I think he’s gonna get paid this offseason. In terms of total money, I’d have him below just Reddick, Bautista, Cespedes and Encarnacion. I think he’ll fall in line with Jansen, Chapman and Fowler around 60-70 MM over 4-5 years. I have EE at 4/80, Reddick at 5/90, Bautista at 4/105, and Cespedes around 6/150.
So far he is easily the best bargain of the offseason beside Rich Hill.
Dexter Fowler?
I’m surprised that Wilson Ramos doesn’t crack your top ten. With Francisco Cervelli being extended by the Pirates, I think Ramos is easily the top catcher on this winter’s market. And all he has done this season is rake for one of the best teams in baseball as a catcher.
By doing it Fowler will get paid
As of now, I’d go:
Cespedes: 6/150
Bautista: 4/105
Reddick: 5/90
Jansen: 5/65
Fowler: 4/64
Encarnacion: 4/80
Chapman: 4/56
Walker: 4/50
Hill: 3/40
Trumbo: 3/36
Ramos: 3/30
Wieters: 3/40
Desmond: 4/60
Gomez: 1/15
Saunders: 3/30
Didn’t put a ton of thought into this, but that’s my gut instinct on these guys.
I would agree with most of those figures. Not sure about Fowler despite his numbers this year (would he put up those kind of numbers if he wasn’t seeing good pitches to hit with so many good Cubs hitters following him?). Teams will take that into account. How much does anydody want to pay for OBP? We’ll find out.
And IMO nobody is foolish enough to give an aging Bautista 4 yrs at more than 25 million. And take him out of Toronto and his power numbers would go down. i could see 3/80 with maybe an option year but I can’t see four. But who knows? Every year some GM somewwhere pays an absurd sum of money for an aging player., so it could happen with Bautista as well. But plenty of GMs are seeing what happens when you sign an aging player, e.g., Pujols, Beltran, ARod, and saying: we won’t make that mistake.
This is one of the worst FA markets ever and teams will pay a premium compared to similar entities in the past.
Somebody will give Bautista 4 years. I could only see 3 years if the the 4th year had a huge buyout.
I’ll take the under on everyone listed after cespedes and before hill. Though I think you are dead on with Fowler.
What about Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross? I get they’re having rough years/injured but with such a limited supply of SP’s in this year’s market (especially with their recent/proven track records of success) would it be totally unreasonable to think they get anything more than 1 year deals at this point?
Ross isn’t a fa
And Cashner has had neither a recent or proven track record.
I wonder if some team will go big and try to get jansen and chapman
Braves got money to spend I wonder how much it would cost to go after Wieters, Gio (if option isn’t picked up) & pull a trade for Plouffe who can hold down 3rd for a year to give Ruiz another year to develop at AAA.
Your idea of their window for contention is very off.
Gotta start the rebuild sometime. The tear down is over after this year. Would I like to move Markakis of course but he is not going anywhere until he gets some power back.
I could see them moving Kelly Johnson, A.J., & maybe Oganda. But what would we really expect in return. I am not saying next year we will be in the World Series but with the right mix of veterans and a couple steps in the right direction by the youngsters and I see no reason why the Braves can’t take a step.
Nobody gave them a shot in 91 and we went worst to 1st. It came from young guys developing and the right mix of free agents.
They aren’t a catcher away…. Signing one is just burning money for no reason. They have to 61st least have a core performing at the big league level before going after free agents.
That makes sense IF you are signing a catcher to a one year deal. If they sign Wieters to a four year deal, then it makes sense to sign him now. He might not be available in two years and this way he can develop a rapport with the young pitchers immediately. Getting a franchise catcher is never burning money for no good reason.
Think I’d rather have Ramos on a four year deal than Wieters. I’d imagine Wieters would cost more.
Wieters is not a franchise catcher. And how is he going to build rapport with their young pitchers unless you’re going to send him to the minors to catch their games.
Pissing away the first 2 years of a contract while you’re going to be terrible doesn’t make any sense. Especially not with an aging catcher.
What happened in 1991 has 0 impact on what will happen to this team. They are an awful team with very little help close the MLB level. They are not going to be good next year and likely not 2018 either.
On top of being truly awful, they are also in a pretty decent division. The Mets and Nats are better. The Marlins will probably get better in this time frame. The Phillies will definitely get better in this time frame.
Anyone you give a 4 year deal to as your starting catcher is your franchise catcher, whether you think they are good enough for the title or not.
Would rather see them spend less on Dioner Navarro and he and Flowers can split time. Re sign Kelly Johnson as utility IF to split time with Castro and Jace at 3B. Even when Ruiz comes up he may not be better than average so hopefully Austin Riley develops quickly. Then sign Brandon Moss as a little power and average off the bench. Try to sign either Jason Hammel if they want to pay out, but would rather see them sign Colby Lewis as a veteran to help some of the younger guys.
Ken Rosenthal makes me want to vomit.
Really wanted Beltre & Cervelli but they both reupped. Wieters and Plouffe is the consolation. Anybody have a better stop gap 3rd baseman I would like to hear.
i dont think headley would cost a ton from the Yankees, hes an alternative in the similar type of player mould to plouffe
Adonis Garcia? Why try and be a 70 win team instead of 68.
Because there are more ways to build a team than just the “worst to first” model that is popular now. There is also the gradual climb model which works as well, but isn’t as sexy. The Mets never did a full scale destroy and rebuild and they have turned out pretty good.
Oh yeah, let me just go look at the Harvey, Syndergaard, Degrom, Matz in the pipeline for the braves…oh wait.
Mets 2010 79-83, 2011 77-85, 2012 74-88, 2013 74-88, 2014 79-83, 2015 90-72.
So did you mean gradual fall not climb? Notice this took 6 yrs to get to 90 wins which is barely a playoff team. Yeah, if you aren’t signing free agents to flip don’t bother signing them til you are ready, especially a catcher who already has had injury problems.
They never tore down the whole house and rebuilt from the foundation either.
And it took them 6 yrs to make the playoffs and now aren’t leading their division. Maybe they should have?
Take Martin Prado at third. No he isn’t flashy but if someone else comes later then Prado has the ability to be a super utility guy and still get decent at bats. Almost everyone is of the opinion Prado is a good influence in the clubhouse too. Seems like the top of player to complement the young Swanson and Albies for the braves without costing prohibitive type money for their budget.
Cashner is a lot better than his record shows. Its hard to win when you play for the Padres.
Cashner’s actually been pretty bad this season. K rate way down to 6.1/9 IP and walk rate up to 3.6/9. Velocity down. 4.54 FIP.
A 4.79 ERA still isn’t very good
Was a fair trade, ahh Rizzo for cashner, the start to the cubs rebuild.
Eh, the Padres had a 50/50 shot with two similar first base prospects in Rizzo and Yonder Alonso and gambled on the wrong one. Rizzo might have never developed in Petco either.
Similar? Alonso never hit more than 15 homers in the minors, the pads didn’t even acquire him til he was 25. Rizzo hit 27 homers in 99 triple a games as a 21 year old the year before he was traded. They were in no way similar.
I didn’t say exact , I said similar. They were both highly drafted first basemen that were acquired as the main prospect in high profile deals. Sounds pretty darn similar to me.
If you use the vaguest sense of the word and pay no attention to the actual players themselves then yes, sure.
Totally agree that Strausburg left $50M on the table, maybe more. A young pitcher of his caliber had no reason to jump on an extension so early. He would have been head and shoulders above any other starter and could have gotten David Price money.
I read the Washington Post and Strasburg left that money on the table for two reasons: 1) he told Boras to try and make a deal with the Nats because he liked the town (odd for a California boy to like the heat and humidity of D.C., lol), he liked his teammates and wanted to continue playing with them and he was grateful for the way the organization protected his arm in 2012 when he was itching to start in the playoffs and the team refused to let him throw any more innings because he had TJ surgery in 2010.
The other thing is this: the Nats analytics guys had determined that, on average, anybody who has had TJ surgery stands a 50/50 chance of needing it again within 5 yrs. Stras, Boras and the Nats figured that risk in when they came up with their numbers.
Kenely Jansen will resign with the Dodgers
Surely you meant he will resign from the Dodgers?
Yeah, I know what you meant, but I doubt Jansen is coming back. He’s more likely to be traded this summer than pitch for LA next year. The Whiz Kids don’t do the kind of deals it will require to keep him.
if they dont keep Kenley the Dodgers will need to expend a lot of resources (prospects and free agency $) to totally rebuild the pen, in order to keep Kershaw happy in win-now mode.
The greed in this place is palpable. Strasburg signed a contract which will pay him $175 MILLION DOLLARS over 7 years and people are complaining because he could have gotten more. What really is the difference between $175 million and $225 million? He might have to skip buying the third yacht or the fifth vacation home, but I think he will still be pretty happy.
I really think we all need to take a step back and just think about what these numbers really mean. People throw around these numbers and then say that a 1 year $15 million dollar contract is cheap when they themselves probably make somewhere around $50,000 a year, if that. It’s all fun and games, I get that, but sometimes you just get taken aback by the language that goes on here.
Sorry for the rant, but I am feeling kind of introspective tonight.
the diff is taxes, to keep 100 mill you need 150 if tax is 1/3
The salaries players receive is more a reflection of the type of money MLB commands rather than just blind spending by wealthy owners and should absolutely not be measured collectively against other industries’ salary levels across the country. Demand is what drives inflation anywhere and the demand for baseball is pretty high. I would much rather see the majority of money fans spend – to watch the players – go to the players as opposed to the owner’s pocket. The debate is not whether a few million will improve that player’s quality of life and happiness. An employee wants to be paid what they’re are worth in that market. Some people work in a field where market value is $50,000, others have it over $1M. The salaries are what they are because it isn’t easy to find people who can perform the job as well as these players. If more people could pitch like Kershaw or Strasburg they would become less valuable and their salaries wouldn’t be so awesome. Those careers where market value is $50,000 probably don’t phase employees out between 35-40 years old, so those people will continue to make that salary as long as they hold that job. Playing baseball beyond age 40 would be volunteer work for most big leaguers, so gaining long-term financial security while able to play is a pretty big factor.
You say simple economics, I say greed. We are probably both right. I am not just blaming the players either. The owners are greedy too, but it’s not going to change anytime soon.
Forget this. Where’s the 2018 class?