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The Remaining Market For Outfielders

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We looked yesterday to see what was left on the open market in terms of starting pitching, and today we’ll turn our attention to the outfield grass. The pool of outfielders just lost a top player in Justin Upton, but it’s still flush with talent. And as the Upton signing shows, where there’s ability, there’s often money to chase it.

Clubs looking for upgrades, complements, or depth can draw from a group of free agents that still includes the following names:

Best Available

  • Yoenis Cespedes — There’s not much left to say at this point. With Upton and Chris Davis off the market, Cespedes is the only remaining free agent who warranted a nine-figure prediction entering the winter.
  • Dexter Fowler — Something of a forgotten man, it remains to be seen how much the qualifying offer will tell on Fowler’s ultimate earning level. He remains a steady, high-quality option who still has plenty of reasonable landing spots.

Bounceback Candidates

  • Austin Jackson — We haven’t heard much chatter on AJax, but he’s an interesting buy-low option — particularly since he can play center field.
  • Steve Pearce — Despite a relatively tough 2015, Pearce’s huge 2014 and his relatively flexible glove make him an intriguing player.

Platoon/Bench Options (Age 31 or Below)

  • Domonic Brown — The former top prospect will be looking for opportunity, first and foremost; a non-contender could take a shot on his upside. It doesn’t hurt that he has another year of arb control remaining.
  • Matt Joyce — Last year was a disaster, but he was a steady offensive producer for years before.
  • David Lough — With an excellent glove, a return to his near-average offensive lines of 2013-14 would make Lough a nice reserve outfielder.
  • Travis Snider — He’s still quite young, and has had his moments, but will probably be forced to earn his next chance after a down 2015.
  • Drew Stubbs — Having a center-field-capable glove goes a long way, but Stubbs has never consistently produced at the plate.
  • Delmon Young — Having a league-average-or-better bat goes a long way, but Young doesn’t play the field well and didn’t hit last year for Baltimore.

Platoon/Bench Options (Age 32+)

  • Marlon Byrd — He still has pop in the bat at 38 years of age and should draw plenty of interest, whether as a second-division semi-regular or a useful bench bat for a contender.
  • David DeJesus — While he ended last year with little playing time and even less production for the Angels, DeJesus still looked like a capable-enough reserve outfielder for most of the year with the Rays.
  • Chris Denorfia — He’s now two years removed from above-average offensive production, but teams will still have interest.
  • Jeff Francoeur — After a solid late-year run, Francoeur could land his first guaranteed deal in some time.
  • Jonny Gomes — The overall line wasn’t great, but Gomes still had above-average numbers against lefties last year.
  • David Murphy — The Halos preferred Murphy to DeJesus down the stretch last year, but he hasn’t exactly set the world afire in recent campaigns.
  • Ryan Raburn — Just … read this.
  • Alex Rios — The Royals gave him pretty significant money last year, but he ended with -1.1 rWAR and will need to bounce back in 2016.
  • Skip Schumaker — He’s more a utilityman than a pure outfield option given the light bat.
  • Grady Sizemore — There’s no longer hope for a return to stardom, but Sizemore quietly had a solid run late with Tampa Bay.
  • Will Venable — As a left-handed bat that can still play center, he’ll have plenty of appeal.
  • Shane Victorino — Could a return to health — and switch-hitting — spur a late-career renaissance?
  • Rickie Weeks — Things didn’t go well last year after a bounceback 2014, so he’ll be searching for another shot in ’16.

International

  • Alexei Bell — The veteran is not yet a free agent, but will surely be hoping for a chance to play at the major league level in the near term.
  • Guillermo Heredia — At 24 years of age, he could be near major league readiness, though he isn’t the most highly-regarded prospect from Cuba.
  • Randy Arozarena — He’s still just twenty, but is an intriguing name to watch.

Marlins Sign Wei-Yin Chen

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The Marlins have officially agreed to a deal with free agent lefty Wei-Yin Chen. He’ll reportedly receive a five-year, $80MM guarantee — just as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted before the offseason — but the deal negotiated between the Miami front office and the Boras Corporation is much more complicated than that.

First and foremost, while Chen won’t gain no-trade protection, the contract comes with an opt-out opportunity for the 30-year-old Chen after 2017. And he’ll receive just $28MM of the guaranteed money in the first two years of the deal ($8MM signing bonus, $6MM salary in 2016, and $14MM for 2017). That would mean the team could get two prime years of the southpaw at a very appealing rate if he opts out, though the backside of the deal could turn ugly if Chen falters. (It’s worth noting, too, that the club could pick up a draft pick via a qualifying offer in an opt-out scenario.)

In the event that Chen remains in Miami, he could pick up a vesting/player option for a sixth season by logging 180 innings in the prior campaign or 360 frames over the two preceding years. That’s a somewhat unusual provision. Presumably, Chen would gain the right to choose between a one-year guarantee or free agency if he hits the innings tally. That option could bring the deal’s total value to $96MM.

As Dierkes explained at length in the above-linked post, Chen earned that contract by posting a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings in the last two seasons. He rarely issues free passes, dominates lefties, and brings a strong low-to-mid-nineties fastball. It’s important to note, too, that Chen has missed only minimal time and has not had any reported arm issues.

Of course, there’s more to it than that, and there are some indications that the lefty may have benefited from some good fortune (including playing in front of a stellar defensive unit in Baltimore). He’s only carried a 3.91 SIERA since the start of 2014, isn’t a major strikeout or groundball pitcher, and has been susceptible to the long ball. And Chen hasn’t exactly chewed up innings; despite being ready almost every fifth day, he doesn’t tend to go deep into games.

With the move, Miami has significantly upgraded a rotation that long seemed in need of a quality arm. The team lost Henderson Alvarez to free agency after non-tendering him, and that left the club with some uncertainty behind ace Jose Fernandez. Chen will join Jarred Cosart and Tom Koehler as near-locks for the staff, with Edwin Jackson now joining in-house options such as Adam Conley, Brad Hand, David Phelps, Justin Nicolino, Jose Urena, and Kendry Flores. (Some of those names, of course, could well end up in the pen.)

As Chen turned down a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, he’ll cost the Marlins their top non-protected pick, which will come in the second round. The club’s first selection, at seventh overall, is protected. The Orioles, meanwhile, will stand to pick up a compensation pick for losing Chen.

It’s easy to forget that the Marlins were viewed by many as a legitimate contender heading into the 2015 season. A lot has changed since then, certainly, but the team’s young core still features a lot of talent. And while Chen himself has faced his share of questions, there’s no denying that he upgrades the Miami staff.

Jon Heyman reported a deal was close on Twitter. Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweeted that a deal was in place. Miami’s ongoing negotiations were reported on Twitter by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the guaranteed money on Twitter. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (Twitter links), Heyman (links to Twitter), and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter) had other key contract provisions.

Free Agent Notes: Cespedes, Mets, Davis, Nathan

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ESPN’s Buster Olney opines that the Mets should not commit to Yoenis Cespedes, as they’d be better served holding onto the remaining resources they have in order to see what needs might arise during the season (ESPN Insider subscription required). Barring a sudden increase in payroll from ownership, he says, rashly pursuing Cespedes could prevent the team from addressing a more significant area this coming summer. But public pressure is growing for New York to make a play for the team’s 2015 trade-deadline star, he notes.

More on the market …

  • John Harper of the New York Daily News feels that the Justin Upton signing further adds to the pressure on the Mets, though he also adds that the $132.75MM guarantee probably indicates that Upton had significant interest from multiple teams. If that’s the case, some of those clubs could very well turn their attention to Cespedes. If Cespedes lands a comparable or greater deal, Harper points out, it will explain why the Mets failed to bring him back into the fold. However, if he signs for three or four years elsewhere, Harper believes it’ll be hard for the Mets to justify their lack of spending. As we’ve discussed often here at MLBTR, though, short-term or even mid-range scenarios such as Harper describes continue to appear unlikely for Cespedes, who — like Upton — still figures to find a large and lengthy guarantee despite his extended wait on the market.
  • When evaluating baseball contracts, the concept of deferred money is both rightly referenced and often misunderstood. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs provides good perspective on the recent Chris Davis deal, explaining that the total value of his contract can’t just be discounted all the way to one, lump-sum present value — at least, that is, unless we treat every other contract the same way. (Point being: we typically add up future payouts in multi-year deals without discounting their value, even though the same rationale applies to all money owed in the future, whether or not “deferred.”) Cameron attempts to put the Davis deal on roughly the same footing as a more typically structured deal that pays out annual salaries in the year they are earned, concluding that the $161MM guarantee is probably best thought of as a $148MM pact.
  • Veteran reliever Joe Nathan is getting bites from around ten teams, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Nathan is looking to come back from Tommy John surgery at 41 years of age. While he’s not likely to be signed with any grand expectations, and struggled in his most recent run with the Tigers, it’s easy to see why teams would be willing to give him a shot given that he remained productive well in his late thirties.
  • Free agency is typically the most straightforward way to address a need, and Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth looks at what teams have done to address the biggest problem areas around the league from the 2015 season.

Tigers Nearing Six-Year Deal With Justin Upton

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8:34pm: The two sides are closing in on an agreement, according to Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Rosenthal adds that it’ll be a six-year deal, if finalized.

8:29pm: The Tigers are in discussions with free agent outfielder Justin Upton, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Things have been relatively quiet on the Upton front as of late, with more focus being placed on fellow corner outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, but Detroit does stand out as a logical landing spot for a top-tier outfielder.

As it stands, the Tigers figure to use a combination of Anthony Gose and Cameron Maybin in left field and center field, though the addition of Upton could theoretically push those two into a platoon or shift Gose into fourth outfielder territory. Detroit general manager Al Avila has said previously that he considers his heavy lifting this winter to be complete and finds a significant outfield addition unlikely, but owner Mike Ilitch could potentially go over his GM’s head in order to bring in a high-profile outfield addition. Upton, who has slashed .262/.344/.470 and averaged 27 homers per year across the past three seasons would certainly fit the bill.

It remains unclear how serious talks between the two sides are at present, and adding another hefty contract to the books with Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann all signed through 2019, plus Victor Martinez through 2018 and Ian Kinsler and Anibal Sanchez through 2017 would be risky. However, Ilitch has long been one of the most aggressive owners in terms of free-agent spending and candidly stated earlier this offseason (after the Zimmermann signing) that he “didn’t care” about spending money.

Signing Upton, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres in November, would cost the Tigers a draft pick. However, Detroit’s No. 9 overall selection is protected under the collective bargaining agreement, and the team already forfeited its second-round pick to sign Zimmermann, meaning that the cost to sign Upton for Detroit would be “only” a third-round pick — a considerably lighter cost than many other potential Upton suitors would face.

AL West Notes: Sucre, Cespedes, Rangers’ Rotation

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Mariners catcher Jesus Sucre suffered a fractured fibula this weekend playing in the Venezuelan Winter League, the Mariners confirmed to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. (Venezuelan journalist Marcos Grunfeld first reported the injury.) The 27-year-old Sucre received a career-high 142 plate appearances last season, serving as a backup catcher in Seattle. The offseason additions of Chris Iannetta and Steve Clevenger make it unlikely that Sucre would’ve broken camp with the Mariners, but the fact that he may miss the beginning of Spring Training, per Dutton, clouds his role with the club even further. Sucre is a lifetime .178/.206/.229 hitter in 235 plate appearances at the Major League level. While his bat is light, Sucre has caught 40 percent of potential base-stealers in his big league career and rated as a well above-average pitch framer in 2015.

Here’s more from the AL West…

  • Despite a number of executives recently speculating to MLB Network’s Peter Gammons that the Astros could be a landing spot for Yoenis Cespedes, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle spoke to a source that made a Cespedes/Houston match unlikely. A separate source confirmed to Drellich that Cespedes is still seeking a very lucrative long-term deal, and as he notes, there’s no precedent of current Astros ownership green-lighting a $100MM+ contract. Drellich hears that the Astros, for instance, never pursued Chris Davis despite the possible need of a first baseman. GM Jeff Luhnow wouldn’t rule out further moves for his club this offseason, but he also didn’t sound to be aggressively seeking any upgrades. “We’re monitoring the players that are available and trying to figure out if there’s a fit, and when I say available, I don’t mean only via free agency. There’s discussions with other teams about trade possibilities as well.”
  • If the Rangers make another move to add to their rotation, it’d likely be a depth piece, GM Jon Daniels told reporters, including Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, earlier today. “If we do anything else where the rotation is concerned, it would be more along the lines of depth,” said Daniels. “There have been physical issues with some of our guys, and we’re cognizant of that.” As Fraley notes, Texas has four locks for the rotation in the form of Cole Hamels, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and the recently re-signed Colby Lewis. Ace Yu Darvish won’t be back until mid-May, at the earliest, Fraley writes, so the Rangers could pursue a possible piece to fill his rotation spot until then. Of course, Texas also has Chi Chi Gonzalez and Nick Martinez as depth options on the 40-man roster, in addition to non-roster invitees A.J. Griffin and Cesar Ramos (who will be stretched from reliever to starter this spring, the club revealed when announcing his signing).

Yankees, Didi Gregorius Avoid Arbitration

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While the majority of the 156 players that filed for salary arbitration last week have agreed to terms with their teams, either on a one-year deal for 2016 or on an extension, the cases of more than 30 players remain unresolved. You can track the status of each case using MLBTR’s 2016 Arbitration Tracker, and we’ll keep track of all of today’s smaller deals to avoid arbitration in this post (all referenced projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)…

  • The Yankees and shortstop Didi Gregorius have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.425MM contract, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network (via Twitter). Gregorius, who qualified for Super Two status with two years, 159 days of big league service time, had been projected to receive a $2.1MM salary. He’ll clear that sum by a fair margin following a season that saw him produce a .265/.318/.370 batting line with nine home runs in his Yankees debut. Gregorius established new career-highs in virtually every category while also contributing strong defense. Though his Yankees career got off to a slow start when he slashed .221/.283/.297 through the end of May, Gregorius recovered with a solid .282/.332/.397 batting line across the season’s final four months. He’s controllable through the 2019 season via the arbitration process.

Shaun Marcum Retires, Joins College Coaching Staff

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Former Major League right-hander Shaun Marcum has joined the coaching staff at Northwestern Oklahoma State University, the school previously announced. The move effectively brings to a close the playing career of Marcum, who expressed excitement about the opportunity to begin sharing his knowledge with a younger generation.

“I played long enough and now I feel like it’s time for me to see if I can help these kids reach their goals of playing professionally and winning a National Championship,” Marcum said at the time of the announcement. “Getting to be on Coach [Sam] Carel’s staff was something I couldn’t pass up. I’m really excited and looking forward to being a part of the NWOSU baseball program.” Carel, a former college teammate of Marcum from the pair’s days at Missouri State University, added: “Shaun’s playing experience at the Major League level speaks for itself, and his knowledge will help this program continue to advance the process forward. Personally, I am just as excited to have an individual who I shared a dugout with at Missouri State University, and who I would consider to be one of the best collegiate competitors I had ever seen come out of a Keith Guttin program. Shaun’s tenacity has always been non-negotiable, and that tenacity will perpetuate itself throughout our club immediately. This program got better today.”

The upcoming season will be Marcum’s first full year of coaching, as he spent much of the 2015 campaign with the Indians organization, splitting the year between Triple-A and the Majors. While Marcum logged a 5.40 ERA in 35 Major League innings last year, he worked to a 3.26 ERA in 88 1/3 minor league innings in his final professional season. Though he struggled in his final Major League stint, Marcum’s career will come to a close with very solid numbers: a 61-48 record, a 3.93 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 38.2 percent ground-ball rate across 1030 Major League innings spent with the Blue Jays, Brewers, Mets and Indians.

Marcum’s career numbers are solid, to be sure, though injuries certainly slowed his production. His 2007 season ended with surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee and would undergo Tommy John surgery a year later at the end of the ’08 campaign, causing him to miss the entirety of the 2009 season. Further elbow issues, a pinched nerve in his neck and, lastly, thoracic outlet syndrome cost Marcum significant time later in his career. While those injuries limited his ability to take the field, the former third-round pick nonetheless amassed a wealth of knowledge and experience from the time he was drafted in 2003 through his playing career’s end in 2015 — and the players he coaches now stand to benefit from those experiences. We at MLBTR wish Marcum the best of luck in the next phase of his baseball career.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard

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36 players from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed so far.  Our prediction contest was open for a week after qualifying offers came in back in November, and 3,092 people entered.  So far, two people are batting over .400, with 15 correct picks.  The leaderboard is available here; my apologies for the delay.  You may notice some blank names in the leaderboard.  If you believe your own name is blank, please click the “Login with Facebook” button from the leaderboard and your name should appear later.

This was the fifth year using this framework for the free agent prediction contest, and I intend to upgrade it for the 2016-17 offseason.  At that time, we’ll drop the Facebook requirement so that all interested MLBTR readers can play.

Royals Sign Lorenzo Cain To Two-Year Deal

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The Royals announced on Monday that they have reached a two-year contract with All-Star center fielder Lorenzo Cain that will buy out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility for a $17.5MM guarantee. Cain, a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management, will is set to earn $6.5MM for the coming season and $11MM in 2017, per reports.

Oct 17, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder <a rel=

Cain had projected to earn $6.1MM. On Friday, he filed at $7.85MM with the team countering at $5MM, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The resulting $6.42MM midpoint would represent nearly a $4MM raise over Cain’s 2.725MM salary last year.

As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted on Twitter, the potential for another significant arbitration raise — perhaps by referencing free agent comparables after another big season — might explain why Kansas City was willing to lock in at such a high rate. Certainly, we’ve seen this deal format before; the Nationals, for instance, bought out the last two years of both Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann prior to the 2014 season.

Cain put up a stellar campaign last year, his age-29 season, to follow up on and exceed a solid 2014 effort. Put together, he’s racked up a .304/.351/.447 slash line with 21 home runs and 56 stolen bases over 1,106 plate appearances dating back to 2014, and his outstanding production in 2015 led to a third-place finish in the American League MVP voting. With top-quality defense and overall baserunning contributions factored in, it’s hard not to label Cain one of the game’s most productive position players.

Of course, as Passan notes in another tweet, Kansas City wasn’t willing to reach the kind of long-term deal that would have kept Cain around beyond 2017. Given his relatively advanced age, and the signing of Alex Gordon, the six-year pact that Cain reportedly sought probably entailed too much risk. It’s hardly preordained that Cain will be gone after the conclusion of this contract, but — much as in the cases of Desmond and Zimmermann — there’s a sense that the most realistic window for a deal has already closed.

Passan first reported a deal was close (via Twitter) and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reported that there was an agreement in place (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/18/16

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Matt Eddy of Baseball America has the latest minor moves from around the game. Among those that have not previously appeared at MLBTR:

  • Lefty Andy Oliver is headed back to the Orioles, per Eddy. The 28-year-old made some brief MLB appearances years ago, when he was a starter in the Tigers’ organization, but spent last year at Triple-A for the O’s. He posted a 3.79 ERA over 57 Triple-A innings, with 10.4 K/9 against 6.3 BB/9.
  • The Royals have once again united with outfielder Mitch Maier. Originally taken 30th overall back in 2003, Maier is now 33 years old and hasn’t seen the majors since 2012. It’s not immediately clear what his role will be, as he spent last year transitioning into a coaching role with the organization — though he acknowledged at the time that he still had a desire to play.
  • Outfielder Corey Brown is headed to the Dodgers on a minors deal, Eddy adds. The 30-year-old has seen only minimal major league time over the years, but certainly qualifies as another outfield depth piece for Los Angeles. He put up a .248/.324/.445 slash with 17 long balls over 472 Triple-A plate appearances last year in the Rays organization.
  • The Blue Jays added southpaw Daniel Schlereth on a minor league pact. It’s been a while since Schlereth, 29, cracked the bigs — 2012, with Detroit — and he was released by the Cubs last year after a brief stint in the organization. Schlereth was the 26th overall pick in the 2008 draft.

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