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Archives for November 2016

Mutual Interest Between Phillies, A.J. Ellis

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There’s mutual interest between the Phillies and veteran catcher A.J. Ellis about a reunion for the 2017 season, reports ESPN’s Jayson Stark. The Phils would like to have Ellis back and consider him both a leader and an “unofficial coach,” Stark notes.

The 35-year-old Ellis (36 in April) went from the Dodgers to the Phils alongside Tommy Bergjans and Joey Curletta in a surprising August swap that sent fellow veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz to Los Angeles. Ellis logged just 11 games with the Phils but showed well, hitting .333/.371/.500 in a tiny sample of 35 plate appearances. Those numbers brought up his overall season production a bit, but he still finished the year with an overall disappointing line of .216/.301/.298.

As it stands, the Phils project to have Cameron Rupp as their everyday catcher on the heels of a solid season. Rupp hit .252/.303/.447 with 16 homers and controlled the running game at an average rate (27 percent) while drawing slightly below-average framing marks from Baseball Prospectus. Ellis would profile as a backup to the 28-year-old Rupp and would offer a veteran source of advice for a pitching staff that, outside of right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, is quite young and lacks significant experience. None of Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez or Jerad Eickhoff has thrown even 250 innings in the Major Leagues, and the Phils’ fifth starter will likely have even less experience. (Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, Zach Eflin and Ben Lively are among the candidates.)

Ellis would also serve as a stopgap to catching prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp, both of whom come with MLB upside but likely require additional minor league seasoning. If Ellis ultimately lands elsewhere, the free-agent market offers many other options for the Phils, as names like Kurt Suzuki, Alex Avila, Geovany Soto, Ryan Hanigan, Jeff Mathis and Chris Iannetta, among others, are all available this offseason.

Pirates Designate Jeff Locke For Assignment, Sign Lisalverto Bonilla

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8:26pm: Bonilla received a $575K guarantee on his deal, tweets MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Considering the right-hander’s lack of big league experience, the minimal guarantee isn’t much of a surprise.

5:25pm: The Pirates announced on Tuesday that they’ve designated left-hander Jeff Locke for assignment and signed right-hander Lisalverto Bonilla to a Major League contract. The 29-year-old Locke has long stood out as a non-tender candidate due to his recent struggles and his projected $4.2MM salary for the 2017 season (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

"<strong[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart]

Locke functioned as a serviceable back-end starter for the Pirates from 2013-15, pitching to a 3.98 ERA with 6.6 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 with a ground-ball rate north of 51 percent across 466 innings. However, Locke also averaged fewer than six innings per start in that time, and his numbers declined in 2015 before taking an even more drastic downward turn in 2016. This past year, Locke logged a lackluster 5.44 ERA with a diminished 5.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 47.2 percent grounder rate. Right-handed opponents teed off against Locke this year as well, hitting him at a .299/.368/.508 clip in his 127 1/3 innings.

Presumably, the Pirates marketed Locke to other clubs to gauge interest in him and will continue to do so over the next week, but if no deal materializes then Locke will be released into a dismal market for free-agent starters. If it comes to that, it’s certainly plausible that Locke will end up with a 40-man roster spot and perhaps a smaller base salary than his arbitration projection represented in addition to some incentives based on innings pitched. There will be no shortage of teams on the hunt for cheap rotation arms, and Locke is just one year removed from that previously mentioned solid three-year run. (Speculatively speaking, the Marlins could make sense as a landing spot, as former Pirates special assistant/pitching guru Jim Benedict is now in the Miami front office.)

As for Bonilla, the 26-year-old once rated as one of the better prospects in the Phillies and Rangers organizations — he went from Philadelphia to Texas in the 2012 Michael Young trade — but saw his career stall in the upper levels of the Rangers’ system. He landed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal last winter and enjoyed a nice season pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where he recorded a 3.97 ERA with a 118-to-40 K/BB ratio in 111 innings (13 starts, 18 relief appearances).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Showing Strong Interest In Fowler, Bruce

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7:16pm: Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Jays are also “showing a strong interest” in Dexter Fowler. In the event that the Jays were to sign Fowler, he’d slide over to one of the currently vacant outfield corners, as Kevin Pillar stands out as one of the game’s premier defensive players and is locked in as Toronto’s center fielder.

From my vantage point, Fowler is a vastly better fit for the Blue Jays than Bruce, as he’d provide a definitive defensive upgrade over either Bautista or Saunders in one of the outfield corners and would also add both the speed and lineup balance that Atkins has stated to be offseason priorities. The additions of both Fowler and Morales would give the Jays two switch-hitters to inject some much-needed left-handedness to a lineup that currently features right-handers Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson and Pillar.

Signing Fowler would require the Blue Jays to forfeit the No. 24 overall pick in the 2017 draft, though the team could recoup a compensatory pick in the event that either Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion signs elsewhere. Fowler, 31 next March, batted a robust .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases in 551 plate appearances with the Cubs while turning in the best defensive metrics of his career in center field.

4:47pm: The Blue Jays are “among the teams making a push for Jay Bruce,” reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). Toronto has an obvious need for corner outfield help following the departures of Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders, and Bruce figures to be a trade candidate now that Yoenis Cespedes is reportedly in agreement with the Mets on a new four-year, $110MM contract.

[Related: Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart]

Toronto has already tried to trade for Bruce once, back in Spring Training, and was believed to be on the verge of completing a three-team trade with the Angels and Reds before the medical reports on some of the minor league talent involved in the deal caused the trade to break down. Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins has stated that he’d like to add some left-handed bats to the lineup to help balance it out, and Toronto has already succeeded to some extent by signing switch-hitting DH Kendrys Morales to a three-year deal.

Bruce, 30 in April, is fresh off his best offensive season since 2013, having batted .250/.309/.506 with 33 homers between the Reds and Mets in 2016. However, he struggled greatly for much of his time with the Mets, and while he did catch fire in the season’s final two weeks, that marks the second straight season in which Bruce performed well for most of the season before fading badly in the second half. He’s also seen his defensive ratings drop dramatically in recent years — perhaps not coincidentally after undergoing knee surgery early in 2014. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -11 this past season, while Ultimate Zone Rating was at -9.

Bruce would give the Jays a short-term bat with plenty of pop, though, and his $13MM salary for the upcoming season is one that the Jays could certainly afford. The Mets picked up a club option on Bruce after the season due to some uncertainty surrounding whether Cespedes would return, and recent reports have indicated that he’d be marketed in the event of a Cespedes re-signing.

Cubs Sign Jon Jay

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The Cubs are in agreement with free-agent outfielder Jon Jay on a one-year, $8MM contract, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). The team has now announced the signing as well. Jay, 32 next March, is a client of CAA Sports.

[Related: Updated Chicago Cubs Depth Chart]

Jon Jay

Jay missed nearly two months of the 2016 season with a broken forearm that was sustained when he was hit by a pitch, but he was productive when he was healthy enough to take the field. The longtime Cardinals center fielder batted .291/.339/.389 with a pair of homers and 26 doubles in 374 trips to the plate. Jay was leading the National League with 24 doubles at the time he sustained his injury, batting .296/.345/.407 to that point in the season, but he tallied just three extra-base hits over his final 84 plate appearances upon returning from the disabled list.

With Jay in the fold, it now seems likelier than ever that Dexter Fowler’s time with the Cubs has drawn to a close. Jay joins an outfield contingent that also includes Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Jorge Soler, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr. and Matt Szczur. He’ll bring a left-handed bat that doesn’t have a significant platoon split to manager Joe Maddon’s roster and will pair well with the highly touted but inexperienced Almora, a right-handed hitter, in center field. Both Gonzales and CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney suggest that Jay will be paired with Almora in center field (Twitter links). Alternatively, Almora, who has just 80 games at the Triple-A level in his career, could get some additional seasoning in Iowa if it’s deemed necessary in Spring Training.

The addition of Jay gives manager Joe Maddon even more matchup options with his day-to-day lineup, and it also gives the Chicago front office more options to pursue on the trade market this winter. Addison Russell and Javier Baez look to have cemented themselves as the Cubs’ regular middle-infield duo, which should push Zobrist to the outfield more often than not. It’s also conceivable that Schwarber will do some catching for the Cubs again in 2017, freeing up some corner outfield at-bats on those days. Nonetheless, it certainly seems plausible that the Cubs could look to deal from their outfield surplus this winter. Soler has long stood out as a possible trade candidate, and the addition of yet another outfield bat to the mix further frees up president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer to explore trade scenarios involving the former top prospect.

The exact machinations of the Cubs’ 2017 lineup can’t yet be determined, but as the 2016 team illustrated, cultivating this level of depth at the Major League level can prove vital in the event of a significant injury to a key player, as was the case when Schwarber suffered a pair of torn knee ligaments.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Marlins Rumors: Ramos, Ozuna, Fister, Phelps, Gee

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The Marlins have “signaled that they might be willing to trade” closer A.J. Ramos, reports ESPN’s Jayson Stark (via Twitter). On the one hand, the news isn’t all that surprising, as Ramos projects to earn a relatively hefty $6.8MM in 2017 and is only controllable for another two seasons, so Miami could market him as it looks to add more stability to its rotation. On the other hand, there have been reports that the Marlins are weighing a run at right-hander Kenley Jansen to beef up the bullpen and shorten the game for their starters due to the lack of available rotation help. Moving Ramos would go against the stated goal of deepening the relief corps with high-end talent, although perhaps the team could look to add some rotation help by moving Ramos and replace him with a free-agent arm. Ramos, 30, posted a terrific 2.81 ERA with 10.3 K/9 but also averaged 4.9 BB/9 and posted a career-worst 36.4 percent ground-ball rate in 64 innings with Miami last year.

A few more notes on the Fish…

  • There’s been “little to no dialogue” between the Marlins and other teams about outfielder Marcell Ozuna, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Many clubs are taking a patient approach to see how the pitching market develops before they determine whether they can part with an arm in a trade to address the outfield, Frisaro writes, and there isn’t much internal traction regarding the idea of dealing Ozuna. With Edinson Volquez on board, the Marlins may look further to the free-agent market rather than seeking trades to bolster the staff.
  • Also from Frisaro, the Marlins have had internal discussions regarding Doug Fister, C.J. Wilson and Jon Niese. Previous reports have linked Miami to the latter two names, but this appears to be the first definitive link between the Marlins and Fister, who posted a 4.64 ERA with 5.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate in 180 1/3 innings for the Astros last season. That marked a second consecutive weak showing for Fister, who was previously one of the more underrated starters in baseball while pitching for the Tigers. Fister’s strikeout rate has plummeted in recent years, though, and while he’s never thrown hard, his once 89-90 mph fastball is now more in the 86-87 mph range. David Phelps is also a candidate to step into the rotation, but the Marlins prefer that he remains at the back of the bullpen, Frisaro adds.
  • Also of note from Frisaro’s piece on the team’s free-agent hunt, he lists Jansen and Aroldis Chapman as assets that are probably too expensive for the Marlins but lists right-handers Mark Melancon and Daniel Hudson as more affordable options that could be realistic targets.
  • Meanwhile, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins have reached out to the representatives for right-hander Dillon Gee, who became a free agent when he was cut loose by the Royals after the season. Gee is no stranger to the NL East, having spent the bulk of his career with the Mets, and he delivered 125 innings with a 4.68 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 41 percent ground-ball rate for Kansas City last year. However, Gee’s season came to an end when he required surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, though, and would give the Marlins a veteran arm who could function in a swingman capacity, making some starts as needed but also providing a relief arm capable of throwing multiple innings.

Olney’s Latest: Hamilton, Napoli, Sale, CBA

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The Reds are listening to offers on all of their players, including Billy Hamilton, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required and recommended). There is, of course, a distinction to be made between entertaining offers and shopping Hamilton around, but Cincinnati’s openness should pique the interest of a number of clubs looking for a center field upgrade. Hamilton had a breakout year in 2016, slashing .260/.321/.343 with three homers while delivering his third consecutive season with 55-plus stolen bases. Those rate stats are far from elite, but Hamilton is an elite defensive center fielder and far and away the best baserunner in Major League Baseball, so progressing from a sub-.300 OBP to even a roughly league-average mark is significant. Hamilton swiped 58 bags in just 460 plate appearances last year and was caught a mere eight times. He also drew a +15 mark from Defensive Runs Saved and +13 from Ultimate Zone Rating in just 119 games.

As Olney notes, Hamilton is controllable for three more years and may not have much control left by the time the Reds are good again. There’s certainly some logic behind trading him, though the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan hears they’d need to be “really, really motivated by an offer” to part with Hamilton (Twitter link).

More from Olney…

  • Mike Napoli is seeking a three-year contract in free agency, reports Olney later in the above-linked piece. The Indians, meanwhile, prefer to keep their offers to retain Napoli to one year in length. At 35 years of age and in a market stocked with first base/DH types — Mark Trumbo, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison, etc. — it’s tough to see Napoli landing three guaranteed years even after hitting 34 homers. Napoli’s .239/.335/.465 line was solid but not elite. and his baserunning and defense both rated poorly in 2016 as well.
  • Also from Olney, execs with other teams tell him that they believe the White Sox “are serious about their intention to trade Chris Sale.” Chicago has told rival clubs they’re willing to trade anyone with fewer than four years of team control remaining, which would mean Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson are off the table, but names like Sale, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera and David Robertson are all in play. Sale’s name figures to dominate next week’s Winter Meetings, and the wide range of options available to Chicago GM Rick Hahn should mean the White Sox will be connected to plenty of interesting trade scenarios.
  • In a separate column (Insider subscription again required and once again highly recommended), Olney writes about the ongoing struggle in the collective bargaining negotiations, which have a 12:01am ET deadline on Thursday. Per Olney’s report, differing styles of negotiation between new MLBPA head Tony Clark and the team of Commissioner Rob Manfred and chief legal officer Dan Halem have led to a slower pace in talks. And, the owners’ recent concession of dropping the demand for an international draft hasn’t really accelerated talks in the manner they hoped it would. Olney adds even more to the CBA story through a series of three tweets, reporting that the competitive balance tax is the “last big hurdle” for MLB and the MLBPA to clear in negotiations, but there’s growing pessimism about a deal getting done. Agents to whom Olney has spoken are “perplexed” by the impasse and feel the Union needs to communicate to the players more effectively why there could be a work stoppage and how it’d impact them.

Latest On Market For Rich Hill

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There are four teams heavily pursuing free-agent lefty Rich Hill, according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros are all said to be chasing down a pitcher who is arguably the best available on this year’s market.  Also joining pursuit are the Red Sox and Orioles, per the report, though it seems their interest is less robust.

We’ve heard plenty of chatter about the possibility of the Yankees making a move on Hill, and the Dodgers likewise have long been said to have interest in a reunion. The AL West-rival Rangers and Astros, though, have not been tied as closely — in part, perhaps, since both have already signed starters — though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed both as plausible suitors in his top-fifty free agent list. Meanwhile, the two AL East teams mentioned seemingly have fully stocked rotations, though surely both could stand to upgrade in the right situation.

Hill is coming off of an outstanding age-36 season. While he was limited to 110 1/3 innings, owing to a blister, the veteran southpaw recorded a sensational 2.12 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While there was justifiable skepticism last winter, following Hill’s four excellent, late-season starts in the prior campaign, he now seems worth pursuing as a possible top-of-the-rotation arm.

There’s plenty of reason to tamper contract expectations, of course. Even if one accepts that Hill can continue to mow down opposing hitters, he’s not young and comes with a long history of injuries. And it’s certainly possible that he’s in line for some regression in the earned-run department after limiting opposing hitters to just 0.33 home runs per nine innings a season ago.

Though he essentially uses just two pitches, Hill has baffled the opposition with a heater that barely averages 90 mph and a breaking ball that he can manipulate at will. And the recent results aren’t just a batted-ball-fortune fluke; he was credited with a 2.39 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and 3.29 SIERA in 2016. With no other true impact starters available on the open market, and despite the obvious questions, MLBTR predicts that he’ll command a $50MM guarantee over three seasons.

Mariners Interested In Doug Fister

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As the Mariners look to bolster their rotation, free agent righty Doug Fister is a “name of interest” to the organization, according to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Already a plausible pursuer of starting pitching, the M’s now appear clearly in need of another arm after dealing Taijuan Walker.

Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto has acknowledged that the club would look to add to the rotation, explaining that he’s hopeful of finding “major-league established starting pitching.” The team has a variety of depth pieces, and added a few more yesterday, but could certainly stand to add to the back of the rotation alongside options such as Ariel Miranda and Nate Karns. “The idea now is to plug in someone who gets a little closer to the middle of the rotation than the back,” said Dipoto.

Whether Fister would really meet that need is somewhat in question after his one-year stint with the Astros. He started well, but faltered over the second half and ended with a career-worst 4.64 ERA over 180 1/3 innings, with 5.7 K/9 and a personal-high 3.1 BB/9. Typically a strong groundball pitcher, Fister has also hovered in the 45% range in groundball induction over the past two years, which is right at league average.

Certainly, the Mariners do not appear to be locked in on Fister. Per the report, the club has its eye on other possibilities — including via trade — and may not see the veteran as their “top preference.” Dipoto has also made clear that he’s in no rush to fill the need, perhaps reflecting an interest in finding value rather than targeting a specific player.

Fister, now 32, began his career in Seattle. He was dealt to the Tigers in an ill-fated swap from the Mariners’ perspective, and was later shipped on to the Nationals. While he is now two years removed from his high-quality 2014 campaign in D.C., Fister was at least able to return to full health in 2016 after struggling with elbow issues in his final year with the Nats.

Mets Increasingly Optimistic Of Re-Signing Yoenis Cespedes

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There’s “optimism growing” within the Mets organization that the team will be able to reach agreement on a new deal with star free agent Yoenis Cespedes, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. It isn’t precisely clear what has led the team to that interpretation, but evidently there’s some sign of movement on the slugger’s market.

New York is reportedly hoping to avoid guaranteeing five years to Cespedes, even as it has seemed likely he’ll do just that. (Indeed, there’s at least a theoretical case that he could command a sixth season.) Both sides are said to be hopeful of resolving things one way or another by the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, which are scheduled to take place next week.

Coming into the winter, there was no question that both player and team would have interest in a reunion. But there were perhaps two major questions in Cespedes’s free agent case: first, whether significant interest would develop from one or more new organizations; and second, to what extent the Mets would be willing to beat the market to re-sign him. Last offseason, New York was able to land the star on a three-year, $75MM deal by dangling an opt-out, though now he’s the consensus best-player-available and has banked another year of superstar-level production.

It’s hard to guess at what could be driving the Mets’ organization’s apparent belief that it could be moving into position on Cespedes. His market has been relatively quiet on the rumor mill, but that may not reflect the action behind the scenes. Also, continued uncertainty in the CBA could have an impact on what other organizations will be willing to do. Whether not fear of a work stoppage could motivate Cespedes and his reps to work something out with the Mets isn’t know, but perhaps can’t be ruled out. All told, it’s certainly plausible that the sides have moved toward common ground after performing their own internal assessments.

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