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Archives for 2016

Ryan Spilborghs: Improving September Baseball

By Ryan Spilborghs | October 18, 2016 at 11:02am CDT

Recently, I outlined the problem that September roster expansion poses for many players, coaches and managers. Though the focus now is on the postseason, CBA talks are nearing finalization, so now’s the time to address the subject. I have several suggestions on how to “fix” the competitive integrity in the month of September — along with the other issues I have mentioned.

To begin, the added depth and flexibility of September rosters does have some lessons. I believe first and foremost that a Major League season is too long and that the league should return to the 154-game season. It’s a physical grind to try to play 162 games in 183 days. I understand the revenue involved with TV rights, ticket and concession sales for each game, but other factors need to be considered as well.

Because our sport has made a significant effort to clean up the game with the banning of “amphetamines,” we have seen a dramatic decrease in players playing more than 135 games per season. I am by no means condoning the use of “greenies” to help players play more games — MLB should be commended for its efforts — but the use of the illegal drug was, at one point, simply a necessity for players to physically meet the demands of the game.

The onus on players is to play each game and produce; performance has always been judged by results and the ability to compete in each game. Good nutrition, proper sleep and body maintenance still make it nearly impossible for players to stay on the field in a capacity that is healthy. There is too much travel and there are too many games for these players to maintain a healthy lifestyle. I have the same argument when I view what the NFL has done to their players by adding Thursday night football. The demands of the game, coupled with short windows of recovery, force players to find “means” in which to compete, and those means sometimes toe the line of legality.

For baseball, I firmly believe it’s time to scale back the regular season. There is a precedent dating back to 1961, when baseball played 154 games, and returning to this schedule is imperative for the safety of the players.

In addition to that change, rosters for each MLB team needs to expand as well, from a 25-man roster to a 28-man roster. The increase in three players is significant enough to lighten the burden on starting pitching rotations and bullpens while also giving teams an extra bench player.

I understand that adding three players comes at a cost to Major League owners by increasing payroll, insurance, and pension, while also allowing more players to reach arbitration. However, the current situation harms the product that the league sells. It has been increasingly popular for teams to carry 13 members of the pitching staff, limiting many teams to a four-man bench. The shorter bench becomes a disadvantage (especially for National League teams) when a starting player is nursing a “day-to-day” injury; it becomes only a three-man bench while the injured player recovers.

Without the needed flexibility, the 15-day minimum disabled list stint means that regulars can be pushed harder than they should — possibly leading to more significant injuries — or be kept out longer than they ought to if a DL stint is required. An increased roster size could help prevent starting players from hitting the disabled lists while recovering, because teams will not have to worry about playing with a shorter bench. That would increase competition, especially when the games matter most down the stretch, and allow owners to keep their best players on the field longer.

Having the extra bench player could also allow National League teams can carry a DH-type of player over the course of the season, creating more excitement and helping to even the playing field for NL clubs competing in AL parks during interleague contests. When baseball moved the Houston Astros back to the American League, the NL and the AL were balanced out to include 15 teams apiece, but the byproduct became season-long interleague play.

There are more direct ways in which the financial shift could be offset, too. In order to make up lost revenue from subtracting eight games during the season, the postseason can expand to include a seven-game series after the initial Wild Card play-in games. Currently the division series is a five-game series. Adding two games can help offset some of the lost revenue, and a shorter regular season would leave plenty of flexibility to accommodate them. With some give in the schedule, baseball can also consider starting opening day later in April, or it can start the playoffs sooner so that the postseason doesn’t leak into November, thereby avoiding some of the weather challenges that arise on either spectrum of when season starts or finishes.

My final suggestion deals directly with September roster expansion. Under my proposal, teams would be able to call upon any members of their 40 man roster, but in a way that respects the integrity of the game is at stake in the season’s final month. It’s simple: only 28 of those players should be eligible for each game. Managers and front offices can determine which players will be the active roster on a given day, without being forced to follow the typical optional assignment rules. Pace of play in the month of September should increase, or at least stay status quo with the pace of the regular season, as opposed to games in which we see teams deploy 10 or more pitchers. To be fair to players that aren’t activated for a given night, no player would lose service time if they are placed in the pool of possible active roster members, and they would be allowed participate in all pregame work. The only detriment would be that they would simply not be allowed to dress for that night’s game.

Although this seems like a trite reason, having that many players on the bench during the game disrupts many players in-game behaviors, from warming up to finding a seat on the bench. For the final stretch run of the season, even the smallest of disrupted routines can be very important to players competing during the game.

I love September — the drama of the season unfolding, the surprise of a new player making their first mark, players and teams chasing down goals. My goal isn’t to subtract from that by any means, but to serve the best interests of Major League Baseball, its players and its coaching staffs, now and in the future. The final month of the season should not take place with changed personnel rules when history is at stake. Without taking away from a player earning a chance to compete at the Major League level in September, it needs to be recognized that we also should not take away from how the game is played for the previous five months. As great as the drama of September baseball already is, I would love nothing more than to see baseball implement some changes in the final wave of CBA negotiations to improve this game I so deeply care about.

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MLBTR Originals Player's Perspective

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Hiroki Kuroda To Retire

By Jeff Todd | October 18, 2016 at 9:25am CDT

Veteran right-hander Hiroki Kuroda has announced that he’ll retire at the end of the season, as Japan’s Kyodo News reports. The seven-year major league veteran has pitched in the Nippon Professional Baseball league for the last two seasons upon returning to his homeland.

Sep 9, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda (18) reacts after giving up a run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Kuroda, 41, is best known in these parts as a high-quality member of the Dodgers and then the Yankees. But in Japan, he is famed for his long run with the Hiroshima Carp — the organization he broke in with, excelled for, and returned to after his run in the majors (spurning the Padres’ reported efforts to keep him stateside).

Indeed, the Japanese star did not appear in the big leagues until his age-33 season. Of his twenty years of professional pitching, Kuroda spent 13 in the NPB — all for the Carp. All told, he provided that organization with over 2,000 innings of 3.55 ERA pitching. And he has been even better since his return, posting successive 2.55 and 3.09 ERA campaigns. He’ll hang up his spikes after the team’s run through the Japan Series comes to a close.

“The Japan Series will be the end. I’ve decided to hang it up,” Kuroda said. “I’ve been shown an excellent dream with an excellent team. And now I want to go out with a smile on my face, all of us celebrating a championship pouring beer on each other.”

In between his stints in Hiroshima, Kuroda excelled in the majors. He spurned several other suitors to join the Dodgers for the 2008 campaign, initially inking a three-year deal. From that point forward, Kuroda inked successive one-year pacts — first returning to Los Angeles, then switching coasts to join the Yankees on what turned out to be a trio of single-season deals (the final two of which came after he declined qualifying offers).

Through it all, Kuroda was a model of consistency. He only completed one campaign — his 2009 sophomore MLB season — with less than 31 starts. And he never completed a year with an earned run average of more than 3.76. Ultimately, Kuroda provided his two major league organizations with nearly identical production: 699 innings of 3.45 ERA pitching with 6.7 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 for the Dodgers, and 620 frames of 3.44 ERA ball with 6.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 for the Yanks. Even as his fastball velocity dwindled, Kuroda’s sinker/slider mix allowed him to steadily maintain his peripherals, and he ended with a 48.6% groundball rate and even 10.0% swinging strike rate in the majors.

In the aggregate, Kuroda earned just over $88MM as a major leaguer. And he is currently the highest-paid player in Japan. But it’s hard to dispute that he has delivered value at every stop along the way. MLBTR joins all those around the game in congratulating Kuroda on his outstanding two decades as a professional ballplayer, and in wishing him good fortune in his future endeavors.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Uncategorized Hiroki Kuroda

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Rule 5 Roundup

By Jeff Todd | October 18, 2016 at 8:08am CDT

We’re just a few months away from this winter’s Rule 5 draft, so it makes sense to take a look back and see how things shook out from the 2015 selections. Several organizations found useful players, even if the most recent class didn’t include an Odubel Herrera-esque breakout sensation. Some of the most recent draftees have probably locked up MLB jobs again for 2017, though others who stuck on a major league roster all year may head back to the minors for further development. (Once a player’s permanent control rights have been secured, his new organization is free to utilize optional assignments as usual for future years.)

Here’s a roundup of the 2015 draft class with the 2016 season in the books:

Keepers

  • Tyler Goeddel, OF, kept by Phillies from Rays: The 23-year-old struggled with the aggressive move to the big leagues, carrying a .192/.258/.291 batting line in 234 trips to the plate, but showed enough for the rebuilding Phillies to hold onto him all year long.
  • Luis Perdomo, RHP, kept by Padres (via Rockies) from Cardinals: It didn’t look good early for Perdomo, but he showed better after moving to the rotation and ended with a rather promising 4.85 ERA over twenty starts. Though he struggled to contain the long ball, and only struck out 6.4 per nine, Perdomo sported a nifty 59.0% groundball rate on the year.
  • Joey Rickard, OF, kept by Orioles from Rays: After opening the year with a bang, Rickard faded to a .268/.319/.377 batting line on the year but held his roster spot in Baltimore. He ended the season on the DL with a thumb injury, though, and may end up at Triple-A for some added seasoning.
  • Joe Biagini, RHP, kept by Blue Jays from Giants: The only Rule 5 pick to appear in the postseason, Biagini was a great find for Toronto. He ended with 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, and now looks like a potential fixture in the Jays’ relief corps.
  • Matthew Bowman, RHP, kept by Cardinals from Mets: Bowman rounds out a trio of impressive relievers. He contributed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 6.9 BB/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go with a monster 61.7% groundball rate.

Retained By Other Means

  • Deolis Guerra, RHP, re-signed by Angels (who selected him from Pirates) after being outrighted: Guerra was in an unusual spot since he had previously been outrighted off of the Bucs’ 40-man roster when he was selected, meaning he didn’t need to be offered back. Los Angeles removed him from the major league roster and then brought him back on a minor league deal, ultimately selecting his contract. Though he was later designated and outrighted by the Halos, Guerra again returned and largely thrived at the major league level, contributing 53 1/3 much-needed pen frames with a 3.21 ERA on the back of 6.1 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9.
  • Jabari Blash, OF, acquired by Padres (who acquired Rule 5 rights from Athletics) from Mariners: Blash’s intriguing tools weren’t quite ready for the majors, but San Diego struck a deal to hold onto him and was surely impressed with his showing at Triple-A. In his 229 plate appearances there, Blash swatted 11 home runs but — more importantly — carried a .415 OBP with a much-improved 66:41 K/BB ratio.
  • Ji-Man Choi, 1B, outrighted by Angels after Orioles declined return: The 25-year-old scuffled in the bigs but was rather impressive at the highest level of the minors, where he walked nearly as often as he struck out and put up a .346/.434/.527 slash with five home runs in 227 plate appearances.

Returned

  • Jake Cave, OF, returned from Reds to Yankees: After failing to crack Cinci’s roster out of camp, Cave impressed at Double-A but slowed at the highest level of the minors (.261/.323/.401 in 354 plate appearances) upon his return to the New York organization.
  • Evan Rutckyj, LHP, returned from Braves to Yankees: Sent back late in camp, the 24-year-old struggled in limited action on the Yanks’ farm after missing most of the season with elbow issues.
  • Josh Martin, RHP, returned from Padres to Indians: In his first attempt at Triple-A, Martin posted 66 frames of 3.55 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.
  • Daniel Stumpf, LHP, returned from Phillies to Royals: Slowed by a PED suspension, Stumpf was bombed in a brief MLB stint with the Phils but dominated at Double-A upon his return to K.C., posting a 2.11 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
  • Chris O’Grady, LHP, returned from Reds to Angels: Sent back in late March, O’Grady compiled a 3.48 ERA over 95 2/3 innings in the upper minors, though he performed much better as a Double-A starter than he did as a Triple-A reliever.
  • Zack Jones, RHP, returned from Brewers to Twins: The 25-year-old was out with a shoulder injury for most of the year, and ended up being sent back to Minnesota in late June, but has shown swing-and-miss stuff when healthy.
  • Blake Smith, RHP, returned from Padres to White Sox: Smith ended up making a brief MLB debut upon his return to Chicago, but spend most of the year pitching well at Triple-A Charlotte, where he ran up a 3.53 ERA in 71 1/3 innings with 9.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
  • Colin Walsh, INF, returned from Brewers to Athletics: After struggling badly in his major league stint with the Brewers, Walsh went to Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate and put up a .259/.384/.388 bating line over 245 plate appearances.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates Rule 5 Draft San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Blake Smith Colin Walsh Daniel Stumpf Deolis Guerra Jabari Blash Jake Cave Ji-Man Choi Joey Rickard Josh Martin Luis Perdomo Matthew Bowman Tyler Goeddel Zack Jones

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Twins Outright Tommy Milone, Four Others

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2016 at 11:33pm CDT

11:33pm: Milone has elected free agency, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports on Twitter.

8:08pm: The Twins have announced five outright assignments as the team clears 40-man roster space entering the offseason. Southpaws Tommy Milone, Andrew Albers, and Pat Dean were all cut, as were infielder James Beresford and outfielder Logan Schafer.

None of the moves is terribly surprising. Though incoming Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey has yet to join the organization — he’s staying with the Indians as they continue their postseason run — the organization obviously already knew these five roster spots would be opened up to make way for new acquisitions and/or Rule 5 draft protection.

Milone, 29, was slated to earn a slight raise on his $4.5MM arbitration salary, with MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $4.9MM figure this winter. It never seemed particularly likely that the Twins would pick up that tab after Milone turned in 69 1/3 innings of 5.71 ERA ball on the year. He has provided some solid major league innings over the years, though, and could earn a shot at a swingman or even rotation role from another organization in the right circumstances (and at a lower price).

The 31-year-old Albers and 27-year-old Dean have not topped one hundred total major league frames in their careers, and neither have been particularly productive in their limited opportunities. Albers worked 17 frames this year for Minnesota, allowing five home runs and 27 base hits along with 11 earned runs. Dean ended his first MLB campaign with a 6.28 ERA on 6.7 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 over 67 1/3 innings.

As for the position players, Beresford briefly cracked the big leagues for the first time in 2016 but has never really hit much in a decade-long minor league run. The 30-year-old Schafer has seen action in six seasons, but owns only a .214/.292/.318 career batting line in 720 plate appearances.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Andrew Albers Logan Schafer Tommy Milone

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D-Backs Introduce Mike Hazen, Address Tony La Russa’s Role

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2016 at 10:09pm CDT

The Diamondbacks introduced new general manager Mike Hazen today, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. While there wasn’t much in the way of specifics on offer, the team’s top brass did talk through some general approaches and also addressed the still-undefined role of re-positioned executive Tony La Russa, Piecoro further reports.

Hazen enters the fold with a broad mandate as he takes the reins from the outgoing Dave Stewart. Though he was the last executive interviewed by the organization, things came together in a matter of days. “Clearly, in the case of Mike, everybody agrees he’s the right guy,” said president and CEO Derrick Hall. “So you have to let him do his job. That’s the goal.”

Hall and his boss, owner Ken Kendrick, expressed confidence in their new hire. Hall explained that Hazen will look to build a sustainable contender, with a “well-balanced” approach. The long-time Red Sox executive impressed with his breakdown of the organization, presenting a “vision” that the organization’s top leadership found compelling.

The incoming GM will take over final authority over the baseball decisionmaking for the organization, whereas Stewart had reported to La Russa. While the Hall of Fame skipper will stay in the organization — which was no sure thing after Stewart, VP DeJon Watson, and manager Chip Hale were all cut loose — he’ll do so in a diminished capacity.

La Russa was involved in the GM hiring process even after he was ordered to fire Stewart and was stripped of his title of chief baseball officer. But he’ll now work under the lesser title of chief baseball analyst and adviser, and will join Hazen in reporting to Hall, who says there’ll be “a dotted line” between the two men. “Mike needs to know everything that [La Russa is] doing and be comfortable with it,” Hall explained, adding that the relationship between La Russa and a new manager will also require “an understanding on both sides at what that role is.”

The precise nature of the relationship between Hazen and La Russa remains to be seen, but it seems that the former will attempt to embrace the latter’s experience. “I know that the game is moving in a particular direction with the buzzword of analytics,” Hazen explained. “(But) there’s no replacing the softer parts of the game, the knowledge of how to manage a human being.  … “Those things I’m confident that Tony’s going to be able to help with and I look forward to hearing what he has to say on all those things.” La Russa struck a similar tone, saying: “I think there’s a real place in front offices for guys that have uniform experience, just so you can help balance the metrics (with) some of that baseball expertise that’s come along for 100 years.”

Indeed, though he has spent much of his time in a Boston organization that obviously values analytics, Hazen stressed his roots in scouting and player development. As for the team’s many upcoming offseason decisions, Hazen largely demurred. “I don’t have a defined view just yet,” he said. “It would be irresponsible for me at this point to sort of say exactly how we’re going to attack the roster.” That’s understandable enough, given that he hasn’t yet dug into his new job, and he did notethat offseason opportunities will have an impact on the organization’s direction. “We’ll have more concrete answers on that as we move through the offseason,” he said. “We’ll see what the landscape is in the marketplace.”

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Arizona Diamondbacks Mike Hazen Tony La Russa

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Mariners Announce Surgeries For Steve Cishek, Taijuan Walker, Tony Zych

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2016 at 5:59pm CDT

The Mariners announced that three important members of the team’s pitching staff recently underwent surgery. Reliever Steve Cishek had his torn hip labrum repaired, starter Taijuan Walker had a bone fragment removed from his right ankle, and bullpen member Tony Zych underwent a shoulder biceps tendon transfer in his right arm.

It seems that Cishek’s may be the most concerning of the procedures. The club’s announcement suggests that he’ll need four to six months of rehab “before resuming full baseball activities,” which means that it would be quite optimistic to expect him to be ready for the start of the regular season. (Spring training will begin in about four months.)

Cishek suffered the tear during the season, but was able to return after a fairly brief absence. It’s not clear whether something else occurred, or if that was simply a temporary solution — with plans for an offseason surgery for a permanent fix. Cishek is owed $6MM next year, the second and final year of his contract, and had seemed primed to serve as a quality set-up man after providing 64 frames of 2.81 ERA pitching (with 10.7 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9) in 2016.

Walker, meanwhile, dealt with foot issues throughout the year and obviously felt it was an opportune moment to have that addressed. Seattle desperately needs him to fulfill the huge promise he has shown. The club says that Walker is expected to be ready to go with camp opens.

Finally, the prognosis is the same for Zych, though it’s hard to say his outlook is as promising. The 26-year-old has shown swing and miss stuff, but missed a great deal of the 2016 campaign and only ended up making a dozen major league appearances. His procedure may be somewhat less dramatic than it sounds, as the club stressed that it “did not involve the rotator cuff or capsule in the shoulder.” Certainly, a healthy Zych would go a long way toward making up for Cishek’s absence, however long that turns out to be.

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Seattle Mariners Steve Cishek Taijuan Walker Tony Zych

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2016 at 5:34pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Phillies faded badly after a solid start to the 2016 campaign, and ultimately dealt with some ups and downs from important organizational assets. But with an increasingly massive gulf between the team’s commitments and its spending capacity, the build back toward contention may begin to feature investments in the major league roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Matt Harrison, SP: $15MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.25MM club option for 2018)

Other Obligations

  • Phillies retained $9.5MM of future obligations to Cole Hamels in trade sending him to Rangers; payout over unreported timeline

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Jeanmar Gomez, RP (5.063) – $4.6MM
  • Freddy Galvis, SS (4.021) – $4.4MM
  • Cesar Hernandez, 2B (2.154) – $2.5MM
  • Cody Asche, 3B/OF (3.022) – $1.3MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Gomez, Asche

Contract Options

  • Ryan Howard, 1B: $25MM club option ($10MM buyout)
  • Charlie Morton, SP: $9.5MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)

Free Agents

  • Andres Blanco, Peter Bourjos, A.J. Ellis, Jeremy Hellickson, David Hernandez

Phillies Depth Chart; Phillies Payroll Information

With a big new TV contract backing a franchise that already has shown more capacity to spend than all but a few others, the Phillies have been a monster in waiting from the moment their veteran-laden roster took a downturn after the 2011 campaign — its last of five straight NL East title runs. But that was five seasons ago, and the rebuild has really only been undertaken in earnest over the last two years, leading president Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak to continue preaching patience.

All told, despite essentially unrestrained spending capacity, the Phillies are unlikely to lock up too much future payroll space this winter. Klentak has consistently dampened any expectations of a free agent spending spree, and reports suggest instead that the club will look to the free agent and trade markets for some targeted additions — thus maintaining flexibility and keeping the books clear for future extensions and more promising open-market classes still to come.

That said, the Phils can’t be counted out for any free agents, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether the team will weigh a significant addition if it sees a chance at achieving good value and infusing some life into Citizens Bank Park. Certainly, there are a variety of roster spots that could stand to be improved.

The place to start, it seems, is the outfield, where only center is locked down. The remarkable Odubel Herrera has not only been the team’s best player in each of the last two years after being plucked in the Rule 5 draft, but improved significantly in plate discipline (nearly tripling his walks) and home run power (from eight to 15) in his second MLB campaign.

Otherwise, it’s open season. Though there are internal possibilities — now and in the near future — to account for, neither corner spot is spoken for. Cody Asche struggled and may well be a non-tender candidate. Aaron Altherr didn’t progress as hoped after missing a big chunk of the season. Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel will surely head to the minors for needed seasoning. The highly-rated Nick Williams scuffled at Triple-A, with 136 strikeouts against just 19 walks, so he’s probably headed back to Lehigh Valley. Good things happened at Double-A, where Dylan Cozens emerged with forty home runs and Andrew Pullin had a mini-breakout of his own, but neither player stands out as particularly likely to make the MLB roster out of camp. Roman Quinn did reach the majors after a solid showing at Reading, and could be a candidate for a roster spot, but he hasn’t shown much power and showed enough swing-and-miss in his brief MLB stint that more development may be in order.

That group, along with those deeper in the system, may come with enough promise that the Phillies won’t chase two multi-year outfield additions. But it seems reasonable to expect that the club will at least sign one established veteran to man a corner post for the next several years. There are a variety of options available, ranging from the probably-unrealistic Yoenis Cespedes to the steady Josh Reddick and relatively youthful left-handed hitters Michael Saunders and Colby Rasmus. We’ve heard some chatter connecting Ian Desmond to Philly, where presumably he’d play in left or even occupy a utility role at some point. Dangling a moderate guarantee with an opt-out to Carlos Gomez could be interesting. And if they like what they’ve seen, the Phillies could be in a nice position to take a shot on MLB-to-KBO success story Eric Thames (assuming he’d move back to the grass if he returns stateside). Odds are, the club will add at least two veterans, perhaps chasing a shorter-term deal with some upside on one player.

There’s far less work to be done in the infield, where most of the jobs are accounted for. Though he took a step back, Maikel Franco remains the future at third. Shortstop Freddy Galvis doesn’t get on base much, but put on a late-season power surge and showed plenty of glove to hold onto the everyday job. The expectation remains that he’s keeping the seat warm for top prospect J.P. Crawford, though Galvis’s strong finish and Crawford’s tepid batting line in his first run at Triple-A almost certainly makes that a mid-season debate. Looking at second, Cesar Hernandez somewhat quietly ended up having a big year, posting a .371 on-base percentage, fielding his position quite well, though he was gunned down in 13 of 30 stolen base attempts. The team will presumably either re-sign Andres Blanco, who has been surprisingly useful, or find another sturdy utility piece to fill things out.

There’s a bit more uncertainty at first and behind the plate, but that doesn’t mean there’s reason to expect any major action. With Ryan Howard set to follow Carlos Ruiz out the door, finally closing the book on the team’s stretch of excellence, the first base job seems set to go to Tommy Joseph — who battled through concussion issues that forced him out from the catching position. He swatted 21 home runs and posted a .257/.308/.505 batting line in 347 plate appearances, though he was much better with the platoon advantage and could end up being paired with a lefty slugger. Joseph’s emergence may push Darin Ruf off the roster.

In some regards, 28-year-old backstop Cameron Rupp was an even bigger surprise than Joseph. He posted league-average overall offensive numbers and whacked 16 long balls in his 419 trips to the plate, setting himself up as the primary receiver for 2017. A strike to bring back A.J. Ellis (who was acquired when Ruiz was traded) or add another one-year veteran wouldn’t be surprising. Regardless of where Joseph goes from here, the organization will want to see what it has sooner than later in top prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp, so a significant addition would be a surprise.

As for the pitching, it was two steps forward, one step back in many regards. Righty Aaron Nola is the chief example of that, as he showed immense promise — with 9.8 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 and a 55.2% groundball rate — even if a low strand rate (60.6%) helped crater his earned run average (4.78 over 111 innings). The big question, though, is whether he can work back from a UCL sprain or whether he’ll end up succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Vince Velasquez also dealt with arm troubles and inconsistency, but was dominant at times and ended up with 131 innings of 4.12 ERA ball. Forming the third piece of what could be a nice core was fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff, who has exceeded expectations (both of prospect observers and of ERA estimators) with 248 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA pitching since rising to the major league level in the middle of 2015.

How the Phils will account for the two or three remaining spots in the rotation remains to be seen. Charlie Morton figures to hit the open market after missing most of the year, unless he and the team see eye to eye on a mutual option or work something else out. Less-established starters Adam Morgan, Zach Eflin, and Jake Thompson all logged significant MLB innings, but none performed well enough to lock up a job (and Eflin will also be working back from surgery to both knees). Command artist Alec Asher was excellent in the upper minors before a PED suspension, and then got strong results in five major league starts upon his return, so he could factor in the club’s 2016 plans.

While there are options on hand, odds are the Phils will look to add at least one sturdy veteran. Jeremy Hellickson filled that role quite nicely after being acquired via trade, and it seems the team will be able to recoup a draft pick for its investment by issuing him a qualifying offer. Klentak will likely be looking to find at least one more solid rotation piece, whether by signing or trade. It seems reasonable to think that the team will again be willing to allocate a decent bit of money to that effort, so long as the contract doesn’t drag out too far into the future. Another strike similar to the trades for Hellickson and Morton would not surprise. There are some fairly costly pitchers with short-term control remaining (via arb or option) who could fit a generally similar profile, such as Drew Smyly, Hector Santiago, Jordan Lyles, Jaime Garcia, Derek Holland, Clay Buchholz, and even Tyson Ross — if he can show that he’s on an upward health trajectory, at least.

The bullpen, too, can be filled mostly from within, but the Phillies can also open up the late innings to outsiders who are interested in throwing high-leverage innings. Incumbent closer Jeanmar Gomez stumbled down the stretch, and could even draw non-tender consideration with his save tally inflating his earning power. But he was quite good for most of the year, seemingly wearing down in the course of another season of heavy usage. Hector Neris was the true eye-opener in 2016, and he’ll continue to play a significant role moving forward. Neris appears to be first in line for closing duties, though the club could dangle that opportunity in a bid to draw veteran free agents.

Filling things out will likely involve giving some chances to younger players while perhaps taking some shots on veterans — as the team did last year with David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, and others. The Phils received interesting showings last year from live-armed young hurlers such as Edubray Ramos, Joely Rodriguez, and Severino Gonzalez, all of whom will factor at some point in 2017. Others — including Michael Mariot, Luis Garcia, and Phil Klein — could be kept on the 40-man for depth and given a chance to compete this spring. While Elvis Araujo and injury-addled Mario Hollands could compete for a chance to serve as a lefty option alongside Rodriguez, that’s certainly a plausible area for the club to target on the open market. All told, dropping a bit of cash on the bullpen would be an easy way to improve for the Phillies, but it would be exceedingly surprising were the club to play in the markets for the top available closers.

What’s not covered above, at least not directly, is the possibility of more creative action than we’ve seen of late. Klentak has thus far proceeded steadily — after all, most of the Phillies’ major veteran pieces were already gone when he took over — rather than engineering the kinds of bold swaps put together by the new-look Braves front office. But he also has far more financial might at his disposal, and already wielded it to add Hellickson, Morton, and Hernandez last winter. Whether it’s absorbing a big salary to facilitate the acquisition of a quality youngster, taking advantage of the team’s protected first-round pick to land a QO-bound free agent who slips through the cracks, or finding some other means of buying up talent, there figure to be many opportunities for Klentak to absorb this winter.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies

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MLB Pushing For International Draft In CBA Negotiations

By Steve Adams | October 17, 2016 at 3:04pm CDT

Major League Baseball is pushing hard to implement an international draft in the current wave of collective bargaining negotiations with the MLB Players Association, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The international draft would be a centerpiece in the changes brought forth with the new CBA, per Olney. The current agreement, which was collectively bargained in the 2011-12 offseason, expires in December.

According to Olney, current proposals have the first 10-round international draft slated for March 2018, and by the year 2021, the minimum age requirement for international draft eligibility would be 18 — a departure from the current system, which allows players to sign as early as their 16th birthday. The league would also operate facilities in the Dominican Republic where international talent could hone their skills before reaching the age of draft eligibility. Under MLB’s proposal, Olney reports that international draftees would receive bonuses that are comparable to those received by players currently selected in the annual June amateur (Rule 4) draft.

The current international signing system has come under great scrutiny, as the unregulated nature of negotiations with teams often leads to corruption. Trainers and handlers for prospects often are able to lay claim to a significant portion of prospects’ signing bonuses and, as Olney writes, at times to extract fees from teams in exchange for delivering talent. He adds that with no testing for international prospects, many teenagers are motivated to use performance enhancing drugs in order to secure a higher signing bonus on their first deal. Beyond that, there have been several harrowing tales of human trafficking to smuggle Cuban players into the country in exchange for exorbitant payments. In writing about this matter earlier this spring, Olney’s colleague Pedro Gomez cited an anonymous player that defected from Cuba within the past few years who said that he would be on the hook for payments to a cartel for the remainder of his Major League career.

As Olney notes, an international draft would be welcome by a number of small- and mid-market clubs due largely to the fact that the current measures implemented in the most recent CBA haven’t fostered the level of competitive balance for which the involved parties strove. The current CBA implemented slots and allotted bonus pools for both the amateur draft as well as international free agency, but only the penalties relating to the amateur draft have curbed spending as had been hoped.

The current international system bans any team that exceeds its league-allotted bonus pool by more than 15 percent from signing an international amateur for more than $300K for the next two signing periods — that penalty was only for one year in the first year of the system’s existence — but that hasn’t prevented teams from determining that the upside is greater than the punishment. To date, the Cubs, Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers and others have gone on extensive international spending sprees in order to bolster their farm systems in one fell swoop. While some small-market/lower-payroll clubs have also exceeded their limits — e.g. the Rays and Reds — the level at which they’ve exceeded international spending limitations hasn’t come close to the levels at which others have over-spent. The Red Sox, for interest, issued a $31.5MM signing bonus to Yoan Moncada (which came with a 100 percent luxury tax, bringing the total to $63MM) despite only possessing a $1.881MM bonus pool that season. The Dodgers, meanwhile, spent upwards of $90MM during that same international signing period (including luxury tax penalization).

Certainly, there are hurdles to be cleared in agreeing to any sort of international draft. Incorporating players from multiple countries, age and identity verification, PED testing/regulation and a number of other roadblocks figure to require a great deal of work, but there are incentives for all parties involved to standardize the means by which teams acquire amateur talent. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has long been an advocate for eventually finding a way to implement an international draft, stating during Spring Training 2015: “I am of the view that at some point, for the good of the game, for the good of competitive balance, we are going to have an international draft.”

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Central Notes: Cardinals, Fowler, Twins

By Steve Adams | October 17, 2016 at 1:11pm CDT

The Cardinals have a number of roster decisions to consider even before beginning to look at free agency this winter, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Jordan Walden’s option will be bought out, while Seth Maness, who is currently on the 60-day DL, is a possible non-tender candidate in Goold’s eyes (though that decision won’t come until later this winter). Plenty of deliberation will need to be dedicated to the Rule 5 Draft, Goold writes, as the Cardinals have a large number of players to consider protecting. Last year, St. Louis opted not to protect right-hander Luis Perdomo, believing him to be too inexperienced to stick in the Majors for a full season, but the Padres hung onto him and received 15 starts with a 4.13 ERA in the final few months of the year. Goold lists 15 players that are in need of protection this winter, headlined by infielders Eliezer Alvarez, Edmundo Sosa, Allen Cordoba and Juan Herrera as well as outfielder Magneuris Sierra. Goold’s piece has quite a bit of additional info on each prospect listed, so Cardinals fans (and those who track the Rule 5 Draft in general) will want to check out his column.

More from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Dexter Fowler tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that his options in free agency last winter were “few and far between” before he decided to return to the Cubs. “My agent, Casey (Close), was talking to everybody, and I felt like this was the best fit to come back here,” Fowler explained. One reason for Fowler’s struggles on the open market last year, he says, was a perception of his defense. “They said I was a bad outfielder, and I kind of took offense to that,” he explained. “So I just moved back a few steps. I didn’t really do anything too different.” Fowler says that he approached Joe Maddon and other Cubs decision-makers in Spring Training about playing deeper in the outfield and was informed that they’d been hoping to talk to him about that very same strategy. Fowler rated +1 in both UZR and DRS this season, which may not seem overly impressive, but that DRS rating is a stark improvement from his 2015 mark of -12. Fowler implied that he’ll again aim for a long-term deal this winter, though obviously he’ll have more pressing needs on his mind over the coming two to three weeks.
  • Poor fastball command has become a systemic failure for the Twins, writes Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, and it was one of the chief reasons for the struggles of top prospect Jose Berrios in the Majors this season. Berardino examines the struggles that the Twins have had up and down their ranks with fastball location and spoke to pitching coach Neil Allen about the problem. While Allen isn’t even sure that he’s going to be employed by the team next season — the fate of the Twins’ coaching staff will be largely determined by new chief baseball officer Derek Falvey — but he’s taken steps to impress his new boss by compiling a comprehensive pitching plan that he hopes to have implemented throughout the entire organization. Allen said that a more stringent organizational emphasis was placed on fastball command while he was serving as the Rays’ Triple-A pitching coach before joining the Twins, and he hopes to deploy a similar philosophy in Minnesota in 2017 if retained.
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Dombrowski Prefers To Fill Red Sox GM Vacancy Internally

By Steve Adams | October 17, 2016 at 11:30am CDT

In a conference call with reporters, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said today that his preference is to hire a general manager that is already within the organization as opposed to conducting a search of external candidates (via Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald). The Red Sox, of course, are in the market for a new GM after Mike Hazen was hired as the executive vice president/general manager of the Diamondbacks over the weekend.

Whether the Red Sox remain internal or ultimately interview outside candidates to fill the void left by Hazen’s departure, the fact remains that Dombrowski will have final say when it comes to baseball operations decision-making. Boston ownership afforded him that autonomy when hiring Dombrowski as the team’s president of baseball operations last August, and while the title of general manager undoubtedly comes with plenty of allure for both internal candidates and external candidates with lower-ranking titles, there should be no confusion about the hierarchy within the Boston front office.

Indeed, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes, Hazen’s departure is a reminder that the Red Sox are now Dombrowski’s operation. That reality makes it less critical that the Sox find someone from within than it was a year ago when Dombrowski didn’t know the organization as well, but Dombrowski called an internal hire an “ideal” setting. The Sox will conduct formal interviews with internal candidates, but as MacPherson notes, Dombrowski said the benefit of sticking internal is that those candidates have, in some ways, been interviewing for this position since the day Dombrowski was hired.

Dombrowski’s longtime friend and longtime colleague Frank Wren, who currently holds the title of senior vice president of baseball operations, has been reported to be a “leading candidate” for Hazen’s vacated post. Other internal candidates include senior vice president of personnel Allard Baird, senior vice president/assistant general manager Brian O’Halloran, pro scouting director Gus Quattlebaum, vice president of international/amateur scouting Amiel Sawdaye and vice president of international scouting Eddie Romero, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier wrote yesterday.

It also remains possible that Hazen will bring one or more of his Boston colleagues to the D-backs front office to work alongside him in a greater role, although Hazen, according to Dombrowski, will be limited in the number of people he is able to enlist. Additionally, anyone who leaves the Sox to join the D-backs will have to be the recipient of a “direct promotion,” Mastrodonato writes, so there won’t be any lateral movement between the two organizations. Certainly it seems plausible, if not likely, that Hazen will pluck a lieutenant or two to join the ranks in Arizona, but Dombrowski suggested that the Boston front office will not lose a large number of resources as a result of Hazen’s hire.

One person the organization could potentially stand to lose isn’t in the front office at all, though. Bench coach Torey Lovullo has already been frequently speculated upon as a managerial candidate in Arizona, and Dombrowski said he’ll be surprised if the D-backs don’t interview Lovullo (via Mastrodonato). He went on to add that while the Sox think highly of Lovullo, Hazen does as well. “We won’t stand in his way,” Dombrowski said of Lovullo, referencing the possibility of the D-backs offering him their managerial vacancy.

There’s no set timeline for the Red Sox to determine a new general manager, though Dombrowski did state that he’d like to find a replacement as quickly as possible. The team does host its organizational meeting to prep for the offseason next week, so it stands to reason that Dombrowski would want to have a new executive in place sooner rather than later. Certainly conducting an outside search and determining a new hire with ownership in that time would be a lofty goal. That, paired with Dombrowski’s stated preference, seems to strongly indicate that Hazen’s successor is already within the organization.

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