Send In Your Questions For This Week’s MLBTR Mailbag
In last week’s edition of the MLBTR Mailbag, I took questions on the Orioles’ outfield needs, Chris Carter‘s role in the Brewers’ future, Greg Holland‘s free agency and potential qualifying offer candidates as the offseason approaches.
If you have a question on the upcoming offseason, free agency, the playoffs, our arbitration projections from last week, our Offseason Outlook series or anything else and would like to hear MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We can’t get to every question, of course, but we’ll try to diversify the teams/subject matter as best we can. If you miss out on having your question answered, remember that you can always ask during one of our three weekly live chats — Tuesday at 2pm CT with myself, Wednesday at 6:30pm with Jason Martinez and/or Thursday at 2pm with Jeff Todd. Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them in at any time.
Dodgers Notes: Chapman, Turner, Jansen, Grandal
The Dodgers’ decision to back out of last December’s agreed-upon Aroldis Chapman trade wasn’t solely the mandate of ownership but was a collective consensus between the baseball operations staff and the ownership group, writes Jon Heyman in his latest notes column at FanRag Sports. By the time the baseball operations staff reached out to managing partner Mark Walter about the domestic violence allegations with which Chapman was faced, they’d already decided the deal should no longer be pursued, and Walter agreed. Heyman also adds that the three prospects that would’ve gone to Cincinnati in that deal ultimately wound up in the Reds organization anyhow, as the proposed package was Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler and Brandon Dixon for Chapman. Those three all went to the Reds in the three-team trade that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox. (The Dodgers received Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson and Frankie Montas from the Sox in that deal.)
A few more notes on the Dodgers…
- Heyman also reports that there have been some “very preliminary contract talks” between the Dodgers and impending free agent Justin Turner, though there’s been nothing serious enough to indicate that Turner will forgo the open market this winter. Turner has said he’d love to remain with the Dodgers, but on the heels of a monster season, he should find widespread demand for his services. The 31-year-old (32 in November) batted .275/.339/.493 with 27 homers in 151 games this season and erased a dreadful first April/May with a torrid four-month stretch to close out the season. He also grades out as a premium defender at the hot corner, all of which contributed to his 4.9 rWAR and 5.6 fWAR in 2016. He’s also been a brilliant performer thus far in his short postseason career, hitting .405/.519/.667 in 52 plate appearances. While that doesn’t necessarily do much for his free-agent stock, it certainly can’t hurt him and figures to be brought up by his agents as they seek the best deal possible for their client this winter.
- Manager Dave Roberts tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he told Kenley Jansen before the 2016 season even began that he planned to get him at least a half-dozen outings in which he pitched more than one inning over the life of the regular season as a means for preparing him for the postseason, and that indeed played out. Jansen was also candid with Rosenthal in explaining that he felt his trust was betrayed when former GM Ned Colletti signed Brandon League to a three-year deal in the wake of Jansen being diagnosed with and treated for an irregular heartbeat. He didn’t mind the possibility of the Dodgers adding Chapman this winter, stressing that he only asked that Friedman be up front with him about what might happen. And it should be noted that former teammate A.J. Ellis also spoke to Rosenthal about how frank Jansen is when discussing free agency. Ellis compared him to Zack Greinke in some respects, noting that Jansen feels he’s earned his one opportunity at a lucrative free-agent deal and figures to go to the highest bidder.
- Yasmani Grandal‘s struggles at the plate this postseason are reminiscent of his offensive woes last year in the playoffs, after which he underwent shoulder surgery, but the catcher tells Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times that he’s not injured this time around. Grandal isn’t letting his lack of offense so far get to him, as he clearly laid out to Moura that his priorities are his defensive work/game-calling behind the plate, then drawing walks, then slugging at the plate. “I’m hitting seventh, and there’s a reason why they have me hitting seventh,” he said. “They want me to make sure I run the pitching staff like it’s supposed to be ran.” Grandal also talked about his frequent visits to the mound this October, explaining that the Dodgers are keenly aware of which players on opposing teams can relay signs to hitters at the plate when they’re standing on second base.
AL Notes: Blue Jays, Indians, LCS, White Sox
Toronto is in an 0-2 ALCS hole at the hands of Cleveland, leading Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista to imply Sunday that his club is up against both the Indians and the series’ home plate umpires. “All you gotta do is look at the video and count how many times [Indians pitchers have] throw pitches over the heart of the plate,” he told Mike Vorkunov of USA Today. “It hasn’t been many. They’ve been able to do that because of the circumstances – that I’m not trying to talk about because I can’t. That’s for you guys to do but you guys don’t really want to talk about that either.” In response to Bautista’s claim, Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus (Twitter link) reviewed PITCHf/x data and concluded that home plate umps Laz Diaz and Jim Wolf called balls and strikes pretty evenly for both teams during the series’ first two games. Conversely, Mark Simon of ESPN.com writes that the Indians have had a clear advantage with respect to the strike zone. TruMedia shows that Indians pitchers have gotten strike calls at a 7.4 percent higher rate than average during the series, according to Simon. On the other hand, Blue Jays pitchers are at 1.8 percent lower than average.
As we wait for Monday’s Game 3 in Toronto, here’s more from around the AL:
- The White Sox will name Chris Getz their director of player development during the upcoming week, reports Scott Merkin of MLB.com. The 33-year-old Getz will take over for Nick Capra, who is now the White Sox’s third base coach. Getz was a major league second baseman from 2008-14, including parts of two seasons with the White Sox. The South Siders selected Getz in the fourth round of the 2005 draft.
- If the Indians end up advancing to the World Series, what already seems like an untouchable bullpen could add another weapon in Danny Salazar. The injured right-hander – out since early September with a forearm strain – threw a simulated game Sunday after rejoining the Indians in Toronto, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Salazar, who had been throwing in Arizona, is “doing pretty good,” said manager Terry Francona. “He’s not back yet where he’s throwing all his pitches or letting it go 100 percent. I think if we ask him to do that, he might be reaching right now. We’ve been pretty vocal about [how] the first priority is getting him back healthy.”
Miguel Montero Thought Cubs Would Release Him
Catcher Miguel Montero‘s tie-breaking, eighth-inning grand slam made him the hero of the Cubs’ 8-4 win over the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS on Saturday. The 33-year-old didn’t expect to be in that position, however, as he told FanRag Sports’ Jack Magruder after the game that he thought the Cubs might release him during the season. The Cubs never indicated that was a possibility, though, according to Magruder.
Montero’s currently slated to return to Chicago next season with a hefty salary – $14MM – to conclude the five-year, $60MM extension he signed with the Diamondbacks in 2012. The Cubs reportedly considered shopping Montero last offseason, which was before the two-time All-Star’s playing time markedly declined during arguably a career-worst year. Montero appeared in 86 games, his fewest since 2010, and batted a meager .216/.327/.357 in 284 plate appearances. Both rookie Willson Contreras and veteran David Ross took playing time from Montero during the regular season, and that has continued in the playoffs. Montero’s grand slam was his first hit of this year’s postseason, in which he has collected just five at-bats. He came to the plate Saturday as a pinch-hitter and is out of the Cubs’ lineup Sunday.
Going forward, Ross’ forthcoming retirement seems to bode well for Montero to remain with the Cubs in 2017. Ross’ departure will leave Montero as the Cubs’ only veteran backstop. The team also has Kyle Schwarber on track to come back from a knee injury that cost him almost all of this season. He conceivably could fall directly behind Contreras on the Cubs’ catcher depth chart next year, though there are questions about Schwarber’s defense. For his part, the 23-year-old slugger is “adamant” about factoring in heavily behind the plate, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reported in September.
On dividing his time between catcher and the outfield, Schwarber told Gonzales, “I want to get back to that point where it’s 50-50 on each side now and not 60-40.”
Regardless of Schwarber’s goal, the fact that full tears to his ACL and LCL cost him a year to develop further as a catcher might help Montero’s chances of finishing his contract as a member the Cubs. Notably, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein praised Montero’s pitch-framing and game-calling skills after last season, attributing some of the pitching staff’s success to his defensive work. Montero has indeed been an excellent framer throughout his career, which Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner indicate has again been the case in 2016.
We’ll know what 2017 holds for Montero soon enough. In the meantime, he’ll spend the next couple weeks trying to help the Cubs win their first World Series since 1908.
“I probably had a bad year, but I might be the MVP of the World Series,” he told Magruder. “I’m being kind of sarcastic, but in reality you never know. Baseball is kind of crazy. Anything can happen, and then nobody is going to remember what I did in the regular season.”
Latest On Red Sox’s, Diamondbacks’ Front Offices
The Diamondbacks worked quickly in their hiring of new executive vice president and general manager Mike Hazen, details Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.
Once it decided to move on from ex-GM Dave Stewart at the end of the regular season, Arizona reached out to Boston for permission to speak with Hazen, who served under president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski as the Red Sox’s GM. The BoSox didn’t allow Hazen to interview until after the Indians knocked them out of the ALDS last Monday. Hazen then met with the Diamondbacks on Friday and agreed to become the head of their baseball department Sunday morning.
In response to Hazen’s departure, Dombrowski released a congratulatory statement in which he revealed that “a search for a new general manager for the Boston Red Sox is underway.”
Reports already have senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren and pro scouting director Gus Quattlebaum as potential in-house successors to Hazen. If the Red Sox do want to promote Wren, it’s not a guarantee he’ll accept. Rob Bradford of WEEI notes that Wren – formerly the Braves’ GM – still lives in Atlanta, making it unclear if he’d be willing to move to Boston for a bigger role.
Other than Wren, Speier lists assistant GM Brian O’Halloran, VP of amateur and international scouting Amiel Sawdaye, senior VP Allard Baird and VP of international scouting Eddie Romero as other GM possibilities currently with the Red Sox. Speier also points out that Dombrowski interviewed Astros director of player development Quinton McCracken for the team’s GM job before he hired Hazen in 2015. The only member of the group with GM experience is Baird, who held that position with the Royals from 2000-06.
Of course, Hazen could lure certain front office members away from Boston to work with him and Tony La Russa in Arizona. La Russa is now an advisor, no longer the Diamondbacks’ chief baseball officer, but Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (on Twitter) that the longtime manager still has power within the organization. La Russa seemingly had a hand in the hiring of Hazen, having sat in with owner Ken Kendrick during their interviews with GM candidates.
Hazen doesn’t intend to raid the Red Sox of their personnel, according to Speier, though Bradford writes that O’Halloran, Quattlebaum and Sawdaye are candidates to take jobs with the Diamondbacks.
Frank Wren “Leading Candidate” For Red Sox’s GM Job
In the wake of Mike Hazen’s departure, the Red Sox are likely to hire a new general manager to work under president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). Hazen’s successor could come from within, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who reports that Red Sox senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren is in the lead to take over as GM. Another member of Boston’s front office, pro scouting director Gus Quattlebaum, is also a potential option, per Rob Bradford of WEEI (Twitter link).
The 58-year-old Wren has extensive experience as an executive, including runs as the GM in Baltimore and Atlanta. Both stints ended in firings for Wren, whose tenure atop the Braves (2007-14) was much longer than his reign with the Orioles (1998-99). In Wren’s seven seasons as the Braves’ GM, the club finished over .500 five times and earned three playoff berths. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons, closer Craig Kimbrel, catcher Evan Gattis and left-hander Alex Wood were among the players the Braves drafted under Wren, who later inked Simmons, Kimbrel, first baseman Freddie Freeman and starter Julio Teheran to extensions that have worked out well (of that group, only Freeman and Teheran remain in Atlanta).
Wren’s time as the Braves’ boss certainly had blemishes, including allocating significant money to outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. (five years, $75.25MM), second baseman Dan Uggla (five years, $62MM) and third baseman Chris Johnson (three years, $23MM). Their inability to live up to those deals contributed to Wren’s firing. In 2014, Wren’s final season in Atlanta, the offensively challenged Braves stumbled to a 27-40 second half after going 52-43 before the All-Star break.
While his resume is imperfect, Wren has experience and a long-standing relationship with Dombrowski working in his favor. Wren was previously with Dombrowski in two other cities – Montreal and Miami – and is now Dombrowski’s “right-hand man,” as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote in July.
Whether it’s Wren, Quattlebaum or another candidate, it seems Boston’s next GM will have a difficult act to follow. Hazen’s exit to Arizona makes this a “sad day” for the Red Sox because of both his contributions to the organization and his likability, a source told Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald (Twitter link). Moreover, Peter Gammons spoke with a high-ranking Red Sox official who favorably compared Hazen to former Boston GM and current Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein (via Twitter).
MLBTR Originals
This week’s original features from MLBTR:
- Matt Swartz and Tim Dierkes released their projected arbitration salaries for the upcoming winter, forecasting upward of 200 players’ earnings for 2017. Tim also broke the news of this year’s projected Super Two cutoff, and Steve Adams provided a detailed breakdown.
- In the latest mailbag, Steve fielded questions on the Orioles’ outfield, free agent reliever Greg Holland, and which players will receive qualifying offers after the season.
- The MLBTR staff continued this year’s Offseason Outlook series with the Reds, Rays and Braves.
Devon Travis To Miss Rest Of Postseason
SUNDAY: An MRI on Travis’ knee revealed a bone bruise with a small flap of cartilage caught in the joint, according to the Blue Jays. A knee scope is likely for Travis, whom the team expects to be ready for Spring Training.
SATURDAY: Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis‘ season is over after suffering a knee injury, Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star was among those to report (Twitter links: 1 2 3). Travis has been replaced on the Jays’ ALCS roster by Justin Smoak.
Notably, Travis had already suffered a knee injury this postseason, having suffered a bone bruise during the ALDS. Jays GM Ross Atkins claims, though, that Travis’ current knee troubles are unrelated, a condition that had to be met for Major League Baseball to approve a roster change at this point. MLB postseason roster rules also state that a player who has been replaced in the middle of a series due to an injury cannot play for the rest of the postseason, which means Travis can’t return for the World Series, should the Blue Jays advance.
Travis hit .300/.332/.454 in 432 plate appearances in the regular season. He has batted 1-for-12 this postseason, sharing playing time at second with Darwin Barney. Barney and Ryan Goins will presumably handle second base in his absence.
Diamondbacks Hire Mike Hazen As Executive VP, General Manager
The Diamondbacks have announced the hiring of Mike Hazen as the team’s new general manager and executive vice president. Hazen’s contract with the club is for at least four years, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link). He will be officially introduced at a press conference tomorrow at Chase Field.
“Mike’s background is the perfect balance of scouting, player development and analytics, which will all play an important role going forward,” D’Backs president and CEO Derrick Hall said in a statement released by the club. “He’s a natural leader, who we feel fortunate to have been able to hire, and we welcome him and his family to Arizona.”
Hazen has spent just over one full year as the Red Sox general manager, serving as the point man under Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Hazen’s new job will put him in charge of Arizona’s baseball ops, as according to MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter link), Hazen will report directly to Hall. Tony La Russa, formerly the Diamondbacks’ chief baseball officer, is still with the organization and will remain as an advisor, Gilbert reports.
Prior to becoming Boston’s GM, Hazen had worked with the Red Sox since 2006, first as the team’s director of player development and then as the assistant GM under Ben Cherington. Prior to joining the Sox, Hazen worked for five seasons in the Indians’ scouting and player development departments.
As noted by Hall, Hazen brings a wide range of executive, scouting, development and even on-the-field (he played two seasons in the Padres’ system in 1998-99) experience. At just 40 years of age, Hazen brings a decidedly new perspective to the D’Backs in the wake of the decidedly old-school methods of La Russa and former general manager Dave Stewart.
Counting the interim tenures of Bob Gebhard and Jerry Dipoto, Hazen will be the Diamondbacks’ seventh general manager since 2005. This revolving door and rumors of ownership interference with front office moves led some executives to wonder if Arizona would have trouble landing top-caliber talent to fill the position. Alex Anthopoulos and Chaim Bloom, VPs of baseball operations with the Dodgers and Rays respectively, both declined interviews. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that Anthopoulos and Jason McLeod, Cubs VP of player development and amateur scouting both had informal talks with the D’Backs, though not actual interviews.
That being said, the D’Backs ended up landing a highly-regarded baseball mind in Hazen, and also interviewed several other notable candidates during their hiring process. Other contenders for the job included incumbent D’Backs assistant GM Bryan Minniti, D’Backs farm director Mike Bell, former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, Royals’ assistant GM J.J. Piccolo, MLB executives Kim Ng and Peter Woodfork and Brewers VP of scouting Ray Montgomery.
Hazen takes over an organization that finished a very disappointing 69-93 in 2016, its eighth non-winning season in the last nine years. A.J. Pollock‘s near season-long stint on the DL, Zack Greinke‘s down year and Shelby Miller‘s disastrous season were the big headline issues, not to mention an overall lack of production from the rotation and bullpen. While the Major League roster certainly still has some impressive players on hand, Hazen’s big-picture challenge will be rebuilding a farm system thinned out by ill-advised trades (i.e. the Miller deal) and a lack of international talent. Arizona was limited to signings of $300K or less for the last two international signing periods following their pool-breaking signing of Yoan Lopez in January 2015, though they’ll be able to spend freely on international players come this July 2, barring any changes to the international spending system in the new CBA.
The first order of business for Hazen will be to hire a new manager to replace Chip Hale, and a familiar Boston name could be a top contender. Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo is a “strong candidate” to take the Arizona job, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter links), though the D’Backs also have an impressive internal candidate in Triple-A manager Phil Nevin.
AL East Notes: Cashman, Rays, Davis, Wieters, Orioles
Here’s the latest from around the AL East…
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman talks to John Harper of the New York Daily News about the trades of Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs and Andrew Miller to the Indians, deals that took quite a bit of preparation on the Yankees’ part as they looked to get maximum value for the two star relievers. Yankee scouts targeted certain players within the farm systems of the many organizations that had interest in Chapman and Miller, and Cashman wasn’t willing to budge from his high, and specific, asking prices. The two relievers are playing big roles in the postseason, and Cashman is rooting for a Chicago/Cleveland World Series matchup. “I want the teams that stepped up and made those trades to be rewarded for doing so. It would justify the action they took,” Cashman said. “I have absolutely no regrets about the deals we made — other than being in the position we were in. We did what we had to do, and hopefully everybody wins.”
- The Rays‘ view of the postseason has to be more bittersweet, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, given that Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman have their new teams fighting for the NL pennant. Both left following the 2014 campaign, and the Rays have since suffered two losing seasons. It’s still too soon to judge manager Kevin Cash or baseball operations president Matt Silverman, though Topkin wonders if the front office would’ve been better off under a traditional “baseball guy” type of executive, or at least a singular voice in charge rather than Silverman’s penchant for group decisions amongst his top lieutenants.
- Also from Topkin, he notes that Rays prospect Josh Lowe has been playing center field in Instructional League action and could take over the position on a full-time basis. Lowe, a Georgia high schooler selected 13th overall by the Rays in the 2016 draft, taken as a third baseman but has often been considered athletic enough to potentially handle an outfield role. Lowe was also a very accomplished pitcher, and MLB.com (which ranks Lowe as Tampa’s fourth-best prospect) notes in its scouting report that a return to the mound could be a possibility if Lowe doesn’t develop as a position player.
- Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis stands out as a future managerial candidate, though as Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald notes, the path to a big league managerial job isn’t an easy one for minorities. Drellich’s piece is well worth a full read, as it details both Davis’ coaching history and how Major League Baseball is taking steps to ensure that teams are giving minority candidates a fair look in hiring. Davis is under contract to the Red Sox for 2017, Drellich notes, though that wouldn’t be a big obstacle if one of the teams looking to hire a new skipper this winter made him an offer.
- The Orioles should issue a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters, CSNmidatlantic.com’s Rich Dubroff opines. Though Wieters had another below-average offensive year, Dubroff figures that he will still look to land a multi-year deal in free agency, especially now that Wilson Ramos‘ injury has made Wieters the top catcher on the open market. There’s a chance Wieters could again accept the QO, and while $17.2MM is a high price tag for a catcher who has produced as little as Wieters has in recent years, Dubroff could see Wieters and Caleb Joseph providing a one-year bridge until prospect Chance Sisco develops as the longer-term answer behind the plate. If Wieters leaves, Dubroff suggests that the club could sign former Oriole Nick Hundley to team with Joseph.
- The Orioles should pursue an extension with Zach Britton rather than consider a trade, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes. Britton’s price tag will continue to rise through his final two arbitration years so there is some logic in dealing him now to both save money and sell high in the wake of Britton’s excellent season. On the flip side, Britton has been so tremendous as Baltimore’s closer that he could lock down ninth innings for the O’s for years to come.