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Archives for January 2017

Nationals Willing To Discuss New Deal With Dusty Baker

By Jeff Todd | January 3, 2017 at 9:40am CDT

The Nationals are prepared to discuss a new deal with manager Dusty Baker this offseason, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports. As of yet, however, the Washington organization has yet to engage in any chatter with the skipper’s reps.

Baker, 67, guided the Nats to a 95-win season and a National League East title, the organization’s third in the last five years. But D.C. fell agonizingly shy of making it out of the divisional round yet again, falling to the Dodgers in five games.

Having signed only a two-year pact when he took the helm before the 2016 season, Baker already occupies lame-duck status. It seems only natural for the sides to come together on a new deal, then; as Castillo explains, all parties have expressed pleasure with what appeared to be a mutually beneficial relationship. Just how long Baker hopes to keep the gig isn’t known, but it appears the team will be receptive to an extension.

Managerial contracts have never been a straightforward matter for the Nats, however. Even Baker’s hiring came with some drama, rising out of the ashes of the club’s dalliance with Bud Black. MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel recently discussed that recent history in assessing Baker’s current situation; his piece, too, is well worth a read.

Assuming that the sides are able to see eye to eye on the term of a contract — presumably, Baker won’t be trying to achieve a particularly lengthy pact — it’ll remain necessary to work out a new salary. The current pact promises the veteran skipper $4MM over its two years, with $3MM worth of incentives also available.

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Washington Nationals Dusty Baker

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MLBTR Poll: Will The Twins Trade Brian Dozier?

By Jeff Todd | January 3, 2017 at 8:49am CDT

We’ve heard plenty over recent weeks about the Twins’ negotiations with rival clubs over star second baseman Brian Dozier. Minnesota reportedly asked interested suitors for their final offers in late December, but nothing more has emerged since (at least, not yet).

The Dodgers have been tied most heavily, and probably represent the cleanest fit. But the two organizations are said to be haggling over a complementary piece to accompany intriguing righty Jose De Leon, who’d seem to represent a worthwhile centerpiece. We’ve heard suggestions that the division-rival Giants could also be involved, though it has never been apparent whether San Francisco is fully engaged on Dozier. Likewise, the Cardinals and Nationals have been mentioned as possibilities, but it’s questionable at best whether either could represent a serious pursuer. There are a few other organizations that seem like hypothetical matches on paper, but we have yet to hear any suggestion of broader interest.

That’s hardly an optimal situation for the Twins, who would obviously prefer to see some bidding on a player who has compiled about 14 fWAR over the last three seasons and is owed just $15MM for his age-30 and 31 seasons. While it’s fair to wonder whether Dozier can maintain anything like the power surge he showed last year (.278 ISO, 42 home runs), he’s not dependent upon gaudy dinger tallies for all of his value. Dozier also rates as an outstanding overall baserunner and solid-enough up-the-middle defender, and has never slipped below league-average offensive production since establishing himself in the majors, so there’s a solid floor to go with his newly established ceiling.

All said, it would be hard for Minnesota to part with that package for anything less than what it deems to be fair value. If that can’t be found now, then perhaps the organization will just have to take Dozier into the season and take on the risks of waiting for a trade-deadline deal. That approach has paid off in some cases (Cole Hamels, Jonathan Lucroy) while backfiring in others (Tyson Ross). Ultimately, if the Giants aren’t willing to push the envelope, and no additional teams step into the fray, then this may simply turn into a staring contest between Derek Falvey and Andrew Friedman.

So, MLBTR readers, what do you think is most likely? Will the Twins strike a deal at some point in the coming weeks, or will Dozier still be at second base in Minnesota for the coming season (or, at least, part of it)? (Link for app users.)

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MLBTR Polls Minnesota Twins Brian Dozier

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Quick Hits: Phillies, Rangers, Brewers, Tigers, Padres

By Connor Byrne | January 2, 2017 at 10:53pm CDT

A quick look around the majors as we wrap up the second day of 2017:

  • The Rangers, Brewers and Tigers stand out as potential trade partners for the Phillies, observes Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com. In the cases of the Brewers and Tigers, Lawrence suggests the Phillies could put together a package to acquire an established corner outfielder in Ryan Braun or J.D. Martinez (Philly did inquire last month about Martinez, who’s entering a contract year). Texas, meanwhile, showed interest in Phillies starter Vince Velasquez last summer, leading Lawrence to wonder if the teams could strike a deal centering on the hard-throwing right-hander and power-hitting corner infield/outfield prospect Joey Gallo.
  • Rangers president/general manager Jon Daniels doesn’t seem eager to try reliever Matt Bush as a starter, which is fine with the right-hander. “I’ve never started professionally. I feel great with where I’m at as a reliever right now,” Bush told T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. “I feel like it’s the best place for me right now. I still have some building to do with my arm. My career is very young. I just want to continue to do what I did last year.” Bush, 30, recorded a 2.48 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.04 BB/9 in 61 2/3 innings last year, making the ex-convict, former shortstop and 2004 No. 1 overall pick an unexpected success story.
  • The Padres could go the trade route for a shortstop – they targeted Detroit’s Jose Iglesias and Texas’ Hanser Alberto at the Winter Meetings – but they’ve also considered signing a free agent, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The open market isn’t exactly teeming with obvious solutions, unfortunately, but finding outside help is in order. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd detailed last week, the Padres’ Luis Sardinas-led shortstop group doesn’t inspire much confidence.
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San Diego Padres Texas Rangers Matt Bush

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Top 50 Free Agent Spending By Division

By Connor Byrne | January 2, 2017 at 8:20pm CDT

A new year has begun, which means the meat of the Major League Baseball offseason is in the rear-view mirror. There are still some quality free agents on the board as we inch closer to spring training, but the league has likely handed out its biggest contracts of the winter. This free agent class was weak from the start, as evidenced by the fact that only one player – Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes (four years, $110MM) – has netted a nine-figure contract. No one else has even gotten to $90MM (reliever Aroldis Chapman came close, granted), and nor will they.

Now, using the Top 50 free agent rankings that MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes put together entering the offseason, we’ll take a look at how much each division has spent on the best available players this winter. As of now, only 18 of the top 50 are unsigned. The 32 who have agreed to contracts – including those who accepted the qualifying offer – have combined to secure upward of $1 billion in guarantees.

AL East

3.  Aroldis Chapman ($86MM)
13. Wilson Ramos ($12.5MM)
22. Kendrys Morales ($33MM)
40. Matt Holliday ($13MM)
42. Steve Pearce ($12.5MM)

Total = $157MM

A year after the Yankees abstained from signing a single major league free agent, they’ve reclaimed their spot as the AL East’s biggest offseason spenders with the acquisitions of Chapman and Holliday. The Blue Jays have doled out the second-most money in the division thanks to the signings of Morales and Pearce; plus, they could still re-up 12th-ranked free agent Jose Bautista, with whom they’re maintaining dialogue. While the Orioles haven’t picked up anyone from the top 50, that could change if they re-sign the No. 1-rated player left on the market, Mark Trumbo. The luxury tax-minded Red Sox have avoided big splashes via free agency, though they’ve done plenty of work via the trade route. And the low-payroll Rays, having already lured Ramos, remain on the lookout for another bat.

AL Central

2. Edwin Encarnacion ($60MM)
29. Jason Castro ($24.5MM)
50. Derek Holland ($6MM)

Total = $90.5MM

Encarnacion is surprisingly on his way to the Indians, who will finalize his contract this week, on a deal with a far lower guarantee than most expected he’d receive coming into the offseason. The rebuilding Twins signed the division’s second-priciest free agent, catcher/pitch-framing whiz Jason Castro, and the fellow non-contending White Sox brought a reclamation project into the fold in Holland. The AL Central’s other teams, the Tigers and Royals, could compete for playoff spots next season, but they’re trying to tamp down payroll. Thus, it’s no shock that they’ve been inactive in free agency.

AL West

17. Josh Reddick ($52MM)
19. Carlos Gomez ($11.5MM)
28. Andrew Cashner ($10MM)
33. Carlos Beltran ($16MM)
43. Matt Joyce ($11MM)
46. Charlie Morton ($14MM)

Total = $114.5MM

The Texas-based Astros (Reddick, Beltran and Morton) and Rangers (Gomez and Cashner) have essentially monopolized free agent spending in the AL West this offseason. With Joyce in the fold, the A’s are the division’s only other team that has landed a top 50 free agent. The Mariners have a general manager, Jerry Dipoto, who has a penchant for making trades, so they’ve mostly gone that route to acquire talent this winter. The Angels, meanwhile, haven’t been quiet in free agency (Ben Revere, Jesse Chavez and Andrew Bailey) or on the trade market (Cameron Maybin and Danny Espinosa), but they also haven’t reeled in any big fish.

NL East

1. Yoenis Cespedes ($110MM)
7. Jeremy Hellickson ($17.2MM)
18. Neil Walker ($17.2MM)
27. Brad Ziegler ($16MM)
35. Sean Rodriguez ($11.5MM)
41. Bartolo Colon ($12.5MM)
47. Edinson Volquez ($22MM)
48. R.A. Dickey ($8MM)

Total = $214.4MM

While the Mets (Cespedes and Walker) have outspent everyone else in the NL East in free agency, the Braves lead the way with three top 50 additions (Rodriguez, Colon and Dickey). The Marlins have also inked multiple players (Ziegler and Volquez), but they originally had much loftier targets in mind in Chapman and Kenley Jansen. The reigning division champion Nationals haven’t signed any high-profile free agents yet (they did make a blockbuster trade, of course), but that could change if they go for one of the best relievers remaining on the market and/or catcher Matt Wieters. As is the case with the Nats, Atlanta’s in the mix for Wieters, who was MLBTR’s 16th-ranked free agent at the outset of the offseason. Hellickson – who, like Walker, eschewed free agency in favor of the qualifying offer – is the only Phillie on the list.

NL West

4. Justin Turner ($64MM)
5. Kenley Jansen ($80MM)
9. Ian Desmond ($70MM)
11. Mark Melancon ($62MM)
14. Rich Hill ($48MM)

Total = $324MM

Thanks largely to the ultra-rich Dodgers, who re-signed three of their own in Turner, Jansen and Hill, the NL West is easily the highest-spending division in the majors this offseason. The Rockies unexpectedly added Desmond for the division’s second-largest guarantee, and they could make more waves if their ongoing interest in Trumbo leads to a deal. After witnessing far too many second-half bullpen meltdowns last season, including in October, San Francisco unsurprisingly nabbed Melancon. Finally, given their respective states, the Diamondbacks and Padres have only been in the market for scrapheap pickups.

NL Central

6. Dexter Fowler ($82.5MM)
10. Ivan Nova ($26MM)
26. Brett Cecil ($30.5MM)
37. Jon Jay ($8MM)
45. Eric Thames ($16MM)

Total = $163MM

Aside from the Cardinals, who bolstered their roster with Fowler and Cecil, the NL Central has spent modestly this offseason. The reigning World Series champion Cubs lost Fowler, whom they’ll try to replace with a Jay/Albert Almora platoon, while the Pirates brought back Nova after the market didn’t develop to his liking. The Brewers’ only top 50 signing has been the 30-year-old Thames, a first baseman who played in Korea from 2014-16 and put up videogamelike numbers during that span. As for the rebuilding Reds, they’ve completely avoided free agency.

This is an updated version of a Charlie Wilmoth post that ran Dec. 21, 2014.

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MLBTR Originals

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Free Agent Profile: Chris Carter

By Connor Byrne | January 2, 2017 at 5:54pm CDT

Although first baseman Chris Carter wasn’t scheduled to hit the open market entering the offseason, that changed when the Brewers designated the 30-year-old for assignment Nov. 29. Milwaukee then shopped Carter around the majors, but after the club was unable to find any trade partners willing to take his projected $8.1MM salary for 2017, it cut him loose Dec. 2. A month later, Carter remains among a group of powerful but flawed hitters still sitting without contracts.

Pros/Strengths

Chris Carter

Few provide more thump than the right-handed Carter, who co-led the National League with 41 home runs last season, paced the NL in isolated power (.277) and finished eighth in the majors in barrels (56, per Statcast). Since 2013, Carter’s first full major league campaign, only five players (Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, the now-retired David Ortiz and Mike Trout) have combined for more homers than his 131, while just seven (the aforementioned names as well as Giancarlo Stanton and Khris Davis) have outdone his .251 ISO.

Carter also brings above-average patience, having registered double-digit walk rates in three of his four full seasons. He took a free pass 11.8 percent of the time in 2016, which was right in line with his career mark (11.6) and easily superior to the league mean (8.2). Further, if Carter’s on your roster, you can count on penciling him in nearly every day (he has racked up three 145-game seasons, including a career-high 160 last year) and he isn’t overly vulnerable against either right- or left-handed pitchers. While Carter has done better versus southpaws (.221/.337/.459 in 840 plate appearances), his production against righties (.217/.303/.466 in 1,805 PAs) has certainly been respectable.

Cons/Weaknesses

If you’re a fan of hitters who put the ball in play regularly, you’re probably not particularly bullish on Carter, who has posted strikeout percentages in the low-30s and contact rates in the mid-60s in each of his major league seasons. All told, Carter has recorded league worsts in strikeout and contact rates (33.2 and 64.9, respectively) since 2013, and he ended up last in those two categories in 2016. As a result, Carter is the owner of an ugly .218 career batting average, which has heavily detracted from the value of his power and patience combination and led to a subpar on-base percentage (.314).

Elsewhere, the lumbering Carter doesn’t offer positives either on the base paths or in the field. He was a bottom 20 baserunner last season in the estimation of FanGraphs’ UBR and BsR metrics, while both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating regarded him as one of the worst first basemen in the league.

Background

Carter is a Redwood City, Calif., native who grew up in Las Vegas, where he still resides during the offseason. When the White Sox selected Carter in the 15th round of the 2005 draft, he was a third base prospect. Carter has never lined up at the hot corner in the majors, though, and he wasn’t long for the ChiSox organization. They traded him to Arizona for outfielder Carlos Quentin in December 2007, and the Diamondbacks quickly flipped him (along with Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, among others) to the Athletics a week and a half later for right-hander Dan Haren. Carter remained with the A’s until February 2013, when they sent him and two others (catcher Max Stassi and righty Brad Peacock) to the Astros for infielder Jed Lowrie and reliever Fernando Rodriguez.

In his time with the A’s, Astros and Brewers, Carter – who’s a client of the Dave Stewart-run Sports Management Partners – has made $7.679MM, according to Baseball Reference.

Market

Carter is currently taking a backseat to fellow right-handed free agent sluggers in Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista and Mike Napoli, though multiple teams have made inquiries, Stewart said a couple weeks ago. The Orioles, Rangers and Rays were reportedly interested in adding Carter as of last month, and all three still have holes at first base and/or designated hitter. Carter would be a fit with any of those clubs, then, while staying in the NL and joining the Rockies is also a possibility. Carter taking his prodigious power to Colorado’s Coors Field is fun to think about, but heading to the AL – where he’d be able to DH – might be the better move.

Expected Contract

It has been almost exactly one year since Carter inked a $2.5MM deal with the Brewers last Jan. 6. That came on the heels of a 24-homer season in which he failed to clear the Mendoza line with a .199 average in 460 trips to the plate. Thanks to his bounce-back 2016, Carter is more appealing now than he was last winter, though another one-year contract appears likely. Carter’s next deal should be richer than his previous one, but given that teams didn’t want him at his projected arbitration salary, he’ll hardly break the bank.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Free Agent Profiles MLBTR Originals Chris Carter

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Indians, Edwin Encarnacion Expected To Finalize Contract This Week

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2017 at 3:18pm CDT

The Indians are expected to finalize their deal with free-agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion this week, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. The sides reportedly agreed to terms on December 22, but have yet to announce the pact formally.

Encarnacion, 33, is set to arrive in Cleveland tomorrow and take a physical on Wednesday. Assuming all goes well with the medicals, he’ll be introduced as the newest member of the Indians on Thursday. His agent, Paul Kinzer, says that he doesn’t expect any issues given Encarnacion’s solid recent health history.

Of course, the market has surely already absorbed the soon-to-be-official signing, which seems to take Cleveland out of play for other significant bats while forcing other pursuers to consider alternatives to Encarnacion. Still, we’ve yet to see any appreciable uptick in the action on the many remaining sluggers, none of whom have agreed to terms since the signing.

The next man up could be Mike Napoli, who had been in conversation with the Indians about a return before the Encarnacion agreement. He has been tied closely to the Rangers, but it seems that other organizations remain in the hunt as well. Other still-unsigned power bats who fit the same general profile include righties Mark Trumbo and Chris Carter as well as lefty hitters such as Adam Lind, Brandon Moss, and Logan Morrison.

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Cleveland Guardians Edwin Encarnacion

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Trade Candidate: Todd Frazier

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2017 at 1:38pm CDT

There’s no denying that the White Sox are engaged in an aggressive rebuilding plan. After all, the organization has now traded away two of its best, established MLB assets in Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, and is said to be engaged in talks to do the same with Jose Quintana. If those affordable, controllable players can be had, then surely it stands to reason that more expensive, shorter-term assets are also on the table.

While players like David Robertson and Melky Cabrera make good sense as trade chips, perhaps no single player on the ChiSox roster carries a “trade me” sign quite as visible as that of third baseman Todd Frazier. Unlike Robertson, he’s entering the final year of contract control. And unlike Cabrera — who’s owed $15MM in the final year of his deal — Frazier is still projects to be useful in the field.

Frazier did take a big step back in the eyes of defensive metrics last year after consistently rating as a plus gloveman at third. And his .225/.302/.464 batting line represented his worst offensive output since a down 2013 season. But Frazier is young enough (31 in February) to think that he can regain his lost step at third, and perhaps its unwise to put too much stock in one year’s worth of defensive ratings given his strong track record. Also, he still swatted forty home runs in 2016 — rather an impressive total from a player capable of playing the hot corner — and boosted his walk rate to a career-high 9.6% (though his K rate also crept up). Frazier still runs well, too, as he swiped 15 bags in 2016.

Really, if you’re looking for a solid everyday player who could bounce back to being an All-Star-level performer, there aren’t many better bets than Frazier. His .236 BABIP makes him an obvious candidate for some positive regression, though it’s fair to note that he earned that mark to some extent by putting the ball in the air more than ever before (48.7%) and posting-career worst line-drive (15.7%) and soft contact (20.7%) rates. With Frazier showing greater selectivity than ever and maintaining his career swinging-strike rates, there’s hope that he can boost his OBP while retaining much of the power he has achieved by gunning for the long ball.

Even if he remains much the same hitter he was in 2016, Frazier would look to be a more defensively useful version of Mark Trumbo. Frazier will only require a single-season commitment, which is appealing. And he could also allow a new acquiring team to recoup a draft pick after the season, if he proves himself worthy of a qualifying offer.

Still, there’s probably a reason that it has mostly been crickets on the demand side for Frazier. In particular, there just isn’t that much demand for third basemen around the game. The Dodgers were rumored to have interest, but ended up bringing back top-available free agent Justin Turner. And the open market still includes at least two useful options at the hot corner in Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe. Then, there’s the fact that MLBTR projects him to earn a hefty $13.5MM, which would make a dent on any team’s balance sheet.

Under the circumstances, the Sox could take Frazier into the year and hope he becomes a summer trade chip (or, perhaps, a QO candidate after the season). Holding onto him is hardly an unfathomable outcome if there’s truly no serious interest, particularly since there doesn’t appear to be a major salary-trimming imperative behind the team’s sell-off. Indeed, many of the teams discussed below seem rather unlikely to offer enough of a return to force the White Sox’ hand. But several organizations that might not give prospects and take on $13.5MM or so in salary right now may well end up having a need in the middle of the season.

It still makes eminent sense for the South Siders to explore all avenues for a trade this winter, but a deal probably isn’t as likely as it might seem at first glance. Let’s take a look at some hypothetical suitors (listed in alphabetical order):

[Team links to MLB Depth Charts]

Athletics — Sure, Oakland has Ryon Healy at third, and he’s more than entitled to a full-season run after his impressive debut. But he has never been viewed as much of a defensive player, and could simply be shifted over to first to make way for Frazier. The A’s have already shown a somewhat surprising amount of payroll availability in pursuing Edwin Encarnacion; adding Frazier could have nearly the same overall impact at a lesser cost (at least, in dollars) because of the defensive upgrade he’d bring.

Braves — While Atlanta seems amenable to going with Adonis Garcia at third, there’s little reason to expect much out of him. The organization can also plan to bump Sean Rodriguez to the hot corner if and when Ozzie Albies rises to the majors. And it’s fair to wonder at what point the Braves will stop taking on 2017 salary. Still, after expending some resources for near-term improvements, perhaps pursuing Frazier would be a finishing touch that could make Atlanta a plausible contender (with a few good breaks).

Cardinals — St. Louis was reportedly lingering around on both Turner and Encarnacion, suggesting that the club is intrigued at the prospect of boosting its infield productivity. Like those possibilities, adding Frazier would likely mean trading another player (Jhonny Peralta, Kolten Wong, or Jedd Gyorko) to create space. And it’s not clear whether the Cards would see enough upside in Frazier to go through with all that. Still, it’s a reasonably plausible landing spot.

Dodgers — Any continued interest depends upon whether the Dodgers would consider playing Turner at second base. He has seen less and less time there over the years, and didn’t make a single appearance at second in 2016, so there’s no particular reason to think that Los Angeles would move him to make way for Frazier. Adding a true second baseman still seems much more likely.

Giants — Eduardo Nunez remains the odds-on favorite to man third, in concert with Connor Gillaspie. But if San Francisco feels it’s better able to improve its offensive production with Frazier than by adding a corner outfielder, with Nunez turning back into a quality utilityman, then perhaps the Giants could make for an interesting fit.

Orioles — The O’s are said to be looking at sluggers, and may prefer one that plays the outfield, but there still could be a fit here. Frazier could spell Manny Machado at third and Chris Davis at first while lining up as the DH. If shortstop J.J. Hardy needs a rest, is hurt, or isn’t effective, then Machado could slide in for him and Frazier could return to full-time duty at the hot corner. It’s not a perfect fit, but Frazier could be a more appealing target for Baltimore than the remaining open-market options.

Rangers — Texas is in the market for a first baseman and/or DH, and might not hate the idea of adding someone who could fill in for Adrian Beltre at the hot corner at times. But there are plenty of hitters in free agency, and the Rangers have other infielders who could man third, so this doesn’t feel terribly likely as things stand.

Red Sox — Boston has given signals that its offseason is largely in the books, but a pivot can’t be ruled out. As things stand, the organization appears to be putting an awful lot of trust in Pablo Sandoval. There’s room for Frazier’s salary, perhaps, after dealing Clay Buchholz. He could split time between first and third (with Mitch Moreland), allowing Hanley Ramirez to be a full-time DH while increasing the Sox’ platoon opportunities.

Rockies — Somewhat like the Orioles, the Rockies could potentially have interest in Frazier to fill a different need. If Colorado trades an outfielder and moves Ian Desmond to the outfield, it would need a regular first baseman. While Frazier’s true utility is somewhat wasted there, that’s perhaps less true than it is in Desmond’s case.

Yankees — Chase Headley has underwhelmed with the bat, so perhaps Frazier could mix in with him and first baseman Greg Bird to inject some pop and increase the Yanks’ overall versatility. But New York still has other needs, and Frazier would represent a pretty significant cost to function in that kind of capacity. Unless Headley were to be dealt, the fit is something of a stretch.

Others — You could argue for the Pirates, especially if Jung Ho Kang is lost, though perhaps corresponding moves would be needed to make it even plausible that the Bucs would take on that much salary (particularly with David Freese and Josh Bell already on hand). The Indians might have made sense were it not for the acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion, but Frazier seems too costly and uncertain to justify relegating Jose Ramirez to corner outfield/utility duties. It’s hard to see the Rays coughing up the cash (and talent) needed to land Frazier, though he’d be a possible first base/DH candidate in Tampa Bay. The Marlins need a righty bat, but re-upped Martin Prado to play third and seem to like Justin Bour as at least a semi-regular at first; without a DH slot, there likely isn’t any kind of match there. Likewise, you could argue for the Mets to add Frazier (at least assuming they deal one or more outfielders); he could share time with Lucas Duda at first and otherwise play third, in theory, but this seems rather implausible unless/until New York trades one or more outfielders and the team has reason to believe that David Wright won’t be able to play in 2017. It’s at least somewhat more possible to imagine the Mariners or Blue Jays taking a look, but those also feel like iffy fits. Neither needs a third baseman or DH, and while they could stand to add Frazier’s pop at first, the presences of Dan Vogelbach and Justin Smoak reduce the utility of adding a fairly expensive piece like Frazier.

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Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate Todd Frazier

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3 Remaining Needs: AL West

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2017 at 11:24am CDT

To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.

So far, we’ve checked in on the AL Central, NL West, NL East, AL East, and NL Central. To wrap things up, let’s stop in on the AL West:

Rangers

  1. First Baseman/DH: The Rangers make obvious sense for a first base/DH addition after watching Mitch Moreland and Carlos Beltran depart via free agency. Texas can utilize Joey Gallo and/or Jurickson Profar in those roles, but neither has hit to expectations in the majors. The club has been tied frequently to Mike Napoli, but there are other options on the open market as well. Relatedly, the Rangers will need to decide what to do with both Gallo and Profar in the near term, as both appear to have uncertain futures in Texas.
  2. Starting Pitcher: Though the Rangers already slotted in Andrew Cashner after declining a club option over Derek Holland, the team also lost Colby Lewis from last year’s staff. He is among the veterans still available in free agency, presumably on short-term arrangements, and Texas could certainly stand to bolster the back of its rotation. At present. A.J. Griffin seems likely to take the fifth slot, though a few upper-level youngsters could also factor in. Texas would do well at least to enhance the overall depth here, at a minimum.
  3. Sorting out the bullpen: Texas has a variety of interesting arms available to take closing duties, with last year’s ninth-inning man Sam Dyson returning. But the club has been rumored to be dangling some of its righty arms in trade, and could conceivably deal from what is something of a surplus to improve elsewhere (or even just to bolster its prospect pool).

Mariners

  1. Starter: Seattle’s first three rotation spots are set. Behind that group, though, the club is currently set to sort through Ariel Miranda, Nathan Karns, Chris Heston, Rob Whalen, Brad Mills, and Christian Bergman in camp. Adding another established arm isn’t perhaps an outright necessity, but it would go a long way to firming up the roster.
  2. First Base/Corner Outfield mix: Currently, the M’s project to utilize some sort of platoon involving youngster Dan Vogelbach (a lefty hitter) and Danny Valencia (a righty). But the latter could also factor into the outfield mix while also providing a reserve at third. Meanwhile, the corner outfield situation includes a whole variety of options, including lefty Seth Smith, who is said to be on the trade block. Adding a righty slugger from the still-stocked free-agent market while thinning the corner outfield herd could make good sense for Seattle.
  3. Utility Infielder: With Jean Segura locked in at shortstop and the durable Robinson Cano set to return at second, there’s not a huge need in the middle infield. But projected reserve Shawn O’Malley has never hit much in the upper minors or in his brief MLB time, so at least adding some camp competition would be worthwhile.

Astros

  1. Left-handed Reliever: Entering the winter, Houston was said to be looking for a southpaw to pair with Tony Sipp, who disappointed after returning via free agency last winter. Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, J.P. Howell, and Travis Wood (who’d also represent some rotation depth) are among the open-market options. Houston could also continue exploring the trade market; the club is said to have checked in on Justin Wilson of the Tigers.
  2. Starter: Houston has a five-man rotation mix in place after already adding Charlie Morton early in the offseason, and possesses some quality young arms as well, but the team could certainly stand to improve its starting staff as a way of rounding out an aggressive winter. The club has been tied to pitchers such as Jose Quintana, Danny Duffy, and Yordano Ventura, while the free-agent market still includes Jason Hammel and a few bounceback options. Even if a larger strike doesn’t prove achievable, adding a minor-league free agent could make sense.
  3. Another bat? There are limits to the number of true needs for some organizations, and that’s particularly true of Houston, which has accounted for most of its roster holes and touts plenty of versatility on its roster. But the club has looked for ways to add yet more talent in a variety of ways, and reportedly stayed involved on Edwin Encarnacion right up to his eventual signing. It would rate as a surprise at this point, but the ’Stros could conceivably add a power bat at first base (bumping Yulieski Gurriel into the corner outfield mix) or acquire a center fielder (shifting George Springer back to a corner spot) if an opportunity arises.

Angels

  1. Closer: While Los Angeles has options for the ninth inning — Huston Street could re-take the reins if he can return to form, Cam Bedrosian has the arm for the job, and Andrew Bailey is back after spending time as the closer late last year — that doesn’t mean the organization should rest on its laurels. Several experienced late-inning arms remain available in free agency, potentially creating a solid value opportunity and adding what could be an open camp competition for the closer’s job.
  2. Left-handed Reliever: Jose Alvarez has turned in two solid campaigns as a lefty setup man, but he’s hardly an overwhelming pitcher. Adding another lefty — some possible options are noted above — might provide a nice boost to the late-inning mix while allowing the club to use Alvarez for matchups earlier in a game.
  3. Rotation Depth: Signing Jesse Chavez likely rounds out the Halos’ staff, but that doesn’t mean there’s adequate depth. That’s especially true given the health questions surrounding Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, and Matt Shoemaker. While pitchers like Alex Meyer, Nate Smith, Chris Jones and perhaps Manny Banuelos and John Lamb provide upper-level depth, it wouldn’t hurt to plug in a veteran on a minor-league deal (or perhaps even aim higher, if a good value can be found on a pitcher such as Hammel).

Athletics

  1. Center Fielder: The A’s currently project to utilize some combination of Brett Eibner and Jake Smolinski up the middle, making for one of the least promising center-field situations in baseball. At a minimum, adding a veteran, left-handed hitter (such as Michael Bourn) would allow the team to set up a platoon. There are also some bounceback players on the open market (including Austin Jackson and Desmond Jennings), and the A’s could still pursue a more impactful asset via trade.
  2. First Base: It came as something of a surprise when Oakland reached agreement on an arb deal with Yonder Alonso, who had seemed a non-tender candidate. But the club has still looked to improve at first, most notably chasing Encarnacion, despite also possessing some other internal possibilities. Stephen Vogt is one, though he could serve as the DH and still appear at times behind the dish; Mark Canha is back as a righty bat; and Ryon Healy may profile as a first bagger if he can’t handle the hot corner defensively. With so many sluggers still floating around in free agency, Oakland could add some thump while deepening its overall roster. As an alternative, the A’s could add a third baseman (Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe remain available) while bumping Healy into the first base/DH mix.
  3. Veteran Starter: While the A’s are said to be high on their rather expansive mix of young starters, the current staff is short on MLB experience outside of staff ace Sonny Gray, who will be looking to return to form in 2017. There’s not a need, strictly speaking, for innings, but Oakland has had success in the past with short-term starters, and a targeted strike could pay dividends — by improving the team’s near-term outlook, but also by adding depth to account for a hypothetical mid-season trade of Gray and reducing the need to press less-established arms into major-league service.
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Exploring January Free Agent Signings

By Jeff Todd and charliewilmoth | January 2, 2017 at 8:27am CDT

The month of January isn’t always a big month for free agent signings, but it can be at times. In 2016, in particular, a wide variety of high-profile free agents had yet to sign when the calendar flipped. As things stand entering 2017, players like Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, Jason Hammel, Matt Wieters, Michael Saunders, Mike Napoli, Greg Holland, Travis Wood, and Neftali Feliz all remain available despite entering the winter listed among the top 25 players on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the top 50 free agents. Other unsigned players include Brandon Moss, Luis Valbuena, Nick Hundley, Chase Utley, Rajai Davis, Angel Pagan, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, Kurt Suzuki, and Colby Rasmus, along with a variety of relievers (e.g., Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Fernando Salas, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Drew Storen).

To see the difference between this year and previous winters, here’s a look at key January transactions from the last six offseasons, via MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker. As we’ll see, January frequently contains at least some drama, but the 2015-16 open-market period still seems like an outlier (which likely occurred due to the sheer volume of high-end talent that was available).

  • 2016: There was a lot of meat left on the free-agent bone this time last year. Plenty of money ended up changing hands over the month of January, with Chris Davis landing seven years and $161MM from the Orioles while Justin Upton got six years and $132.75MM plus an opt-out from the Tigers. Big, multi-year deals were also awarded to Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM over five years with opt-out), Yoenis Cespedes ($75MM over three years with opt-out), Alex Gordon ($72MM over four years), and Ian Kennedy ($70MM over five years). Less significant, but still-substantial guarantees were struck by Denard Span ($31MM), Gerardo Parra ($27.5MM), Howie Kendrick ($20MM), Antonio Bastardo ($12MM), and Doug Fister ($7MM).
  • 2015: The only significant free agent move in January was indeed a big one: the Nationals’ agreement with Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM deal on the 19th. Beyond that, the largest deal was the Astros’ $8MM pact with Colby Rasmus. James Shields ($75MM) and Francisco Rodriguez ($13MM) were the only key free agents who signed in February.
  • 2014: This was the other recent offseason with the most post-New Year’s activity. The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka to a $155MM contract in late January, and the Brewers got Matt Garza on a four-year, $50MM deal at around the same time. In addition, James Loney agreed to a three-year, $21MM pact with the Rays, who also signed Grant Balfour for two years and $12MM. A number of key free agent signings (Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Fernando Rodney, Nelson Cruz) were delayed until February, while Ervin Santana (whose market, like that of Cruz, was depressed by the qualifying offer) did not sign until March. Two other qualifying offer free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, did not sign until after the season had begun.
  • 2013: Nick Swisher and Edwin Jackson both signed right after New Year’s, each getting four-year deals in excess of $50MM. Later that month, Rafael Soriano and Adam LaRoche each got two-year deals in the $20MM-$30MM range. Two free agents with qualifying offers attached, Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, signed later.
  • 2012: The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a huge nine-year, $214MM contract in late January. The other key free agent deals that month were those of Coco Crisp and Hiroki Kuroda, both of them comparatively minimal in value. In early February, Jackson agreed to a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals.
  • 2011: Soon after the new year, Adrian Beltre agreed to a five-year, $80MM deal with Texas. Later in the month, Soriano got three years and $35MM from the Yankees. The only significant February signing was Vladimir Guerrero’s one-year, $8MM deal with the Orioles.

An obvious common denominator with many of these signings was that a number of key players were represented by Scott Boras, including Davis, Scherzer, Fielder, Beltre, Chen, Kennedy, Bourn, Jackson, Lohse, Span, Soriano, Rodriguez, Drew and Morales. As is widely known, Boras operates on his own timeline, and his clients’ frequent late signings reflect that. For this year, that’s worth keeping in mind for Wieters and Holland.

The other obvious common denominator is the qualifying offer, which had obvious effects on free agents like Ian Desmond, Kendrick, Bourn, Lohse, Santana, Cruz, Drew and Morales. Trumbo and Bautista are the only two remaining QO decliners on this year’s market, but it’s not hard to see how the draft compensation may continue to impact their markets.

This time around, negotiations over the new CBA may well have played a role in the timing at the top of the market. That likely slowed things down for Edwin Encarnacion, who is now one of several notable, veteran bats who have signed — helping to explain why so many lumbering sluggers still remain available. With three top-end closers and a variety of other relievers also chasing big money this winter, it’s perhaps not surprising to see a fair bit of bullpen help still floating around, too.

This post is adapted and updated from a post by Charlie Wilmoth that was originally published on January 2, 2016. 

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Free Agent Profile: Neftali Feliz

By charliewilmoth | January 1, 2017 at 10:13pm CDT

With a variety of top closers now off the market, teams hunting for relievers this January can choose from a number of somewhat less expensive targets. One of the best of those is righty Neftali Feliz, who’s available after a solid season with the Pirates.

Pros/Strengths

At just 28, Feliz is young and has a solid recent performance record, a rare combination of traits on the free agent market. Last season, Feliz significantly boosted his status after joining Pittsburgh’s pitching factory, posting a 3.52 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, all solid numbers worthy of late-inning work. He also threw harder than he had in years, with his 96.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranking as his best since 2011, the year before he moved into the Rangers’ rotation and then had an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. And that very high MPH figure might actually understate Feliz’s future potential to throw gas, since his velocity increased throughout last season, averaging closer to 98 MPH by year’s end.

Neftali FelizAlso, while it’s been a long time since Feliz pitched a full season as a closer, he has 99 career saves and could conceivably be a closing option for a rebuilding team that has an opportunity available. The right situation could be a boon for both Feliz and for his new team. Feliz could later market himself as a closer and is certainly young enough and talented enough to get another multi-year deal after his next contract is over. And his new team could get a short-term option at closer and the opportunity to deal him before their contract with him expires.

Cons/Weaknesses

Feliz has a lengthy medical history that includes not only Tommy John surgery in 2012, but also arm soreness in 2014 and an abscess in his side in 2015. He also missed time late in the 2016 season to arm discomfort. He failed to reestablish his velocity for several years after Tommy John and had limited success in 2014 and 2015, resulting in his being designated for assignment by the Rangers and non-tendered by the Tigers.

Of course, it’s normal for a player to struggle somewhat as he attempts to return from Tommy John surgery. But even in 2016, when Feliz appeared to be fully healthy until September, there were a few speed bumps. Feliz allowed his fair share of fly balls, resulting in ten home runs allowed over 53 2/3 innings. That ten-homer total reflected a very high HR/FB% of 19.2%, and that’s likely to come down in 2017. But Feliz’s home run tendencies (probably partially a result of his heavy dependence on his four-seam fastball, as well as his unspectacular command) might mean he’s not a great fit in a homer-friendly ballpark — although, of course, he did just fine for several seasons in homer-happy Arlington.

Background

Feliz signed with the Braves out of Azua, Dominican Republic in 2005, then headed to the Rangers in 2007 in the Mark Teixeira deal. He won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2010. His wife, Karina, gave birth to a daughter, Nerali, in 2010. His second child, Neftali Jr., was born in 2015.

Market

Feliz’s market has been somewhat quiet thus far, although that isn’t necessarily a surprise — through the first two weeks of December, the relief market revolved around elite closers like Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon and Kenley Jansen. It’s been less than three weeks since Jansen (the last of that group remaining on the market) came to terms, and the holiday season likely slowed activity during some of that time. It emerged last month that the Marlins viewed Feliz as something of a backup plan if they couldn’t land Jansen; they ultimately signed a very different type of reliever, Brad Ziegler, instead, but the way they saw Feliz might say something about the way he’s valued throughout the industry. A month ago, Feliz was also connected to the Nationals, a match that still makes a degree of sense. Any number of other teams could also enter the fray given the right price, since Feliz could conceivably be used in a variety of roles. The Pirates’ signing of Daniel Hudson, as well as the significant commitment Feliz might require, make a return to Pittsburgh unlikely.

Expected contract

MLBTR predicts Feliz’s status as one of the better setup men available this winter will help the BTI Sports client land a three-year, $18MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Free Agent Profiles MLBTR Originals Neftali Feliz

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