This is the 10th entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory Series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants, Padres, Reds, Braves and Tigers.
While the Marlins have played better of late, they face an uphill climb just to get to within striking distance of postseason contention. The signs point to moving some veteran assets, but there’s also a significant complication. As ownership continues to explore a sale of the team, it’s unclear how that process could bear on the decisions at the trade deadline. One thing is for certain: Adeiny Hechavarria looks to be on the way out the door in the next day or so, with the Rays standing as the rumored front-runner to acquire his services. That move is reportedly driven by an ownership push to clear his salary, so perhaps Jeffrey Loria will continue to shed payroll in the weeks to come.
Here are the Miami players who’ll likely draw some trade consideration:
Rentals
Dustin McGowan, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $1.75MM
The 35-year-old McGowan has revived his career with the Marlins over the past two seasons, tossing a combined 107 innings of 2.78 ERA ball with 8.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of nearly 53 percent. McGowan’s velocity is down this season, but his control has improved as well. A team in need of middle relief help wouldn’t have to part with much to pick him up.
A.J. Ellis, C | Salary: $2.5MM
Ellis hasn’t played much this year, totaling just 63 plate appearances, and in that time he’s batted .200 with a .290 OBP and no extra-base hits. Barring a revival of some sort at the dish, which will be difficult with such limited playing time, he’s unlikely to generate much interest.
Controlled Through 2018
Adeiny Hechavarria, SS | Salary: $4.35MM, arb-eligible 2018
As previously noted, Hechavarria seems decidedly likely to move in the next day or so. The Marlins reportedly are hoping to move him before Tuesday’s series opener, when he’d have to be activated from the DL and would force a corresponding roster move. The Rays and Padres are among the teams currently linked to him, but Hechavarria’s salary and lack of offense should limit the return.
Edinson Volquez, RHP (starter) | Salary: $9MM in 2017, $13MM in 2018
After a terrible start to the season, Volquez has turned it on. His turnaround was highlighted by a June 3 no-hitter against a stacked Diamondbacks lineup, but Volquez was pitching fairly well even before that outing. He’s posted a 3.86 ERA with a 44-to-27 K/BB ratio across his past nine starts, spanning 54 2/3 innings. Volquez is an innings-eater at worst and a slightly above-average starter at best, and his contract, while not a bargain, isn’t outlandish.
David Phelps, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $4.6MM in 2017, arb-eligible 2018
The 30-year-old Phelps broke out as a dominant late-inning weapon for the Marlins in 2016, and while he hasn’t been quite as good in 2017, he’s still a highly desirable bullpen piece. Through 34 innings this season, he’s posted a 3.65 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against an improved 3.4 BB/9 and a 44.9 percent ground-ball rate. And dating back to last season, Phelps has a 2.69 ERA in 123 2/3 innings. Phelps has experience as a starter, including five starts in 2016, so he can definitely handle a multi-inning role. Some teams may even have interest in trying him in the rotation once again.
Tom Koehler, RHP (starter) | Salary: $5.75MM, arb-eligible 2018
The Marlins have reportedly been open to trading Koehler for roughly a month. The righty is currently in Triple-A after a brutal start to the season (7.28 ERA in 38 1/3 innings), and he’s allowed just two runs with a 22-to-5 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings there. Koehler, 30, is hardly teeming with upside, but from 2013-16 he logged a perfectly respectable 4.14 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. His 2017 performance has probably torpedoed his modest trade value, but Koehler has a fourth starter’s track record and wouldn’t require any notable young talent to acquire.
Brad Ziegler, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $7MM in 2017, $9MM in 2018
Miami’s highest-profile bullpen addition of the offseason, Ziegler has been surprisingly ineffective in 2017 and is currently on the disabled list with a back injury. Ziegler’s ground-ball rate remains elite, and he’s inducing more pop-ups in 2017 as well. But, his strikeout and walk rates have both gone in the wrong direction, and his combination of salary and injury makes it difficult to envision a move at this juncture.
AJ Ramos, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $6.55MM in 2017, arb-eligible 2018
The Marlins’ closer since 2015, Ramos routinely posts gaudy strikeout totals with questionable control. That’s truer than ever in 2017, as he’s currently sporting a career-high 12.2 K/9 against a lackluster 4.9 BB/9. The 30-year-old’s strikeout rate and reasonable salary should create some trade value if Miami looks to move him, though it’s interesting that the Nationals, perhaps baseball’s most bullpen-needy contender, reportedly don’t have all that much interest.
Junichi Tazawa, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5MM in 2017, $7MM in 2018
Like Ziegler, Tazawa inked a two-year deal in Miami as a free agent this winter but has been a bust to this point in the season. Tazawa’s 6.88 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 and 27.5 percent ground-ball rates are all career-worsts. Right now, he looks more like a DFA candidate than a trade candidate, though he did just return from a month-long stint on the DL, so perhaps he can get back on track now that he’s been deemed healthier. Those numbers, after all, come in a sample of just 17 innings, so it won’t take too long for Tazawa to turn the tide.
Jeff Locke, LHP (starter/reliever) | Salary: $3.025MM, arb-eligible 2018
Non-tendered by the Pirates this past winter, Locke signed a one-year deal with the Fish and missed the first two months of the year with tendinitis in his biceps. He’s healthy now but hasn’t looked much better than he did prior to this offseason’s non-tender. Through 23 2/3 innings, Locke has a 20-to-9 K/BB ratio with an improved 53.8 percent ground-ball rate. He does have a history of serviceable work as a fifth starter and can probably be had for little more than salary relief.
Controlled Through 2019
Marcell Ozuna, OF | Salary: $3.5MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2019
Ozuna may be the best combination of trade value and actual plausibility of a trade. Ozuna has just two years of control left and a price tag that should soar in arbitration thanks to a career year in ’17, so the Marlins may look to cash in and acquire a haul in return for his bat this summer. Through 74 games/316 plate appearances, Ozuna has hit .319/.383/.575 with 20 homers and 13 doubles. He’s already just three big flies short of his career-high and looks like a virtual lock to clear 30 homers this year. On top of that, Ozuna is capable of playing center field and has played considerably above-average defense in left field thus far in 2017 (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +4.4 Ultimate Zone Rating). If he’s moved this summer, the Marlins would likely be selling near his peak value.
Martin Prado, 3B | $11.5MM in 2017, $28.5MM through 2019
Re-signed prior to hitting the open market last year, Prado has missed time this season with a pair of hamstring injuries. He’s batted just .278/.301/.392 in 83 plate appearances even when healthy, the Marlins are known to love his clubhouse presence, and his remaining salary looks untradeable at the moment. All of that is to say, Prado seems likely to stay in Miami for now.
Tyler Moore, 1B/OF | $1MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2019
Moore has belted six homers in a tiny sample of 81 plate appearances while posting an overall .263/.284/.566 batting line. The Marlins picked him up on a minor league deal this winter, and he’s already cleared waivers once. Moore is the type of asset that is routinely flipped for cash or a player to be named later, and he could potentially help another team’s bench in 2017.
Longer-Term Assets
Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Barraclough, Justin Bour, Dan Straily, Derek Dietrich, Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley
Stanton may find his way into some trade rumors this summer, but the reality is that he’s still guaranteed a total of $295MM through the 2027 season and can opt out of his contract following the 2020 campaign. It’s exceptionally difficult to imagine any club taking that contract on, and even if the Marlins find a team that’s interested (and/or if they agree to pay down a huge portion of the deal), Stanton has a full no-trade clause as well. If the Marlins sell, there will be tons of speculation, but Stanton is likely staying put.
Yelich, on the other hand, doesn’t have a no-trade clause but would come with an enormous price tag in a trade a cost-controlled young star on an affordable deal. His offense is down in 2017, but he’s still drawing walks and is actually striking out less than in recent years. Yelich has spent his whole career playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly environment yet still owns a lifetime .289/.366/.424 triple slash in the Majors, to say nothing of quality baserunning skills and excellent left field defense (though he’s playing center in 2017). Yelich is still just 25 years old and is owed $44.5MM from 2018-2021, and his contract has an option for the 2022 season as well.
Gordon, meanwhile, isn’t producing as he did in 2015, though he’s still a nightmare for opposing pitchers on the basepaths and an above-average defender at second base. He’ll earn $38MM from 2018-20 and has an option for the 2021 season, though teams will undoubtedly be a bit wary of Gordon following last year’s PED suspension.
As was the case for the Reds in 2017, Straily has beaten expectations and proven to be a bright spot in the rotation. He boasts a 3.43 ERA with career-best K/9 (9.2) and BB/9 (2.9) rates in addition to a 38.1 percent ground-ball rate. Straily is still controlled through 2020, and though his .259 BABIP looks like it’s due for regression, it’s actually right in line with his career .255 mark. He’s likely improved his trade stock in Miami, and he’ll be arb-eligible for just the first time this winter.
It’s tough to see the Marlins having much interest in moving either Realmuto or Bour, both of whom are healthy, playing terrifically, and are controlled through the 2020 season. Each will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and should maintain an affordable salary. Barraclough is a bit easier to envision simply due to his control issues and the volatile nature of relievers, but he’s controlled through 2021 and has posted some of baseball’s best strikeout numbers since debuting in 2015.
Dietrich was an above-average bat (.261/.355/.427) without much defensive value from 2014-16, but now he’s not hitting, either. As such, it’s difficult to envision him garnering much interest, though maybe a team in need of a bench piece would be intrigued by his track record and look to buy low. Chen, meanwhile, is completely immovable due to the $52MM remaining on his deal from 2018-20 and a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament that might not allow him to pitch again this season. Conley has pitched to a 7.53 ERA in the Majors this year and a similarly troublesome 6.42 mark in Triple-A. He’s still in his pre-arbitration years, so Miami wouldn’t get any cost savings from dealing him.
If the Marlins can trade Stanton while he is healthy and productive and get out from under that huge contract, they should. Once he gets hurt, any opportunity they may have will go *poof*.
The problem is that any team that is willing to take on the risk associated with that contract is not going to want to surrender top-tier players to Miami. They’ll be giving up Stanton, a potential superstar, for pennies on the dollar (but saving a lot of dollars in the process).
also have to factor in the sale of the marlins. on one hand, a guy like stanton may boost top-line value of the team. on the other hand, a prospective owner may look at that contract and think its a liability and not be willing to spend as much on the team.
Agree, but there is a major stumbling block beyond his large contract. His ability to hit the long ball is incredible, however who isn’t hitting home runs? The fact that balls are going yard at a record pace diminishes his best skill when factoring in the contract.
Imo the smart thing for the Marlins to do is to have a firesale.
I’m not saying they should trade their assets at a discount, but the farm system may be the worst in the game and the MLB roster clearly isn’t good enough to win. Trading Stanton is likely going to be very difficult, if not impossible, but everyone else should have a “for sale” sign.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, but the death of Fernandez was undeniably huge to this organization. Maybe they could be in win now mode if he was still alive, and I’ll give Loria credit for trying to win this offseason, but you can’t replace a guy like him in free agency.
Hopefully the new ownership group will be willing to spend more money on the team, and they can fill more butts in the seats.
Loria didn’t try to win anything this offseason. He didn’t his usual go half way thing and then complain when it doesn’t work…could have had Nova cheaply. There were avenues in the offseason to try to grab at least another SP, even a backend SP…that didn’t happen b/c they threw away money at Tazawa, and especially the 3 million they wasted on Jeff Locke for no reason
The writing is on the wall. May was so terrible, it pretty much ended the season. The NL West teams have such a big lead. Marlins still need 2 SPs, and have zero way of doing that. They aren’t going to keep Ozuna. The farm system has some nice talent at the lower levels, but they’re all injured, and there is absolutely nothing on AA or AAA. Time to trade a few pieces, and try to retool quickly around Yelich, Stanton, and Realmuto
Ozuna, Bour, Straily, Ramos, Phelps, Volquez, Prado, Wittgren, Barraclough, Ziegler, Dee Gordon should all be traded, in my opinion, as a Marlins fan. That’s a decent start. Unforseen circumstances and bad moves put you in a position where you have to give up players like Ozuna, which always (s)ucks. But hopefully, if they get some talent back and do things a little better this time, hopefully with a new owner, it can be fixed quickly. You’re trying to avoid the inevitable when they don’t pay Ozuna and get nothing and there’s no talent in the system, and also, right now there’s essentially no way of adding SP to help us compete. Obviously frustrating b/c of how close this team really was in terms of pieces away.
I would start by moving Ramos ASAP, see what i can get for Barraclough next, and hold off a while on the rest before moving them before the deadline…that includes Hech, who there is no replacement for. Let him come back off the DL, see if his bat can do anything positive for a couple of weeks, and then maybe look to move him.
I’d like to see Ozuna playing CF in Wrigley. Almora, Candeleria, some other pieces should do it. Cmon Theo!!!
huh an actually decent trade idea! it’s a rarity
For a team to take on a contract like Stanton’s they would have to compare his production dollars to that of a Trout, Harper and Machado. These are the next generation of superstars slated to hit the FA scene that will command that type of contract. The Marlins don’t have the revenue to eat any money on any contracts.
It’s a 6 year/$107 million deal that has 3 years/$76 million left on it…if he stays healthy it’s a bargain, and he opts out
IF on both accounts!
Good thing we didn’t resign Tazawa or Ziegler, didn’t realize how bad they were doing until just now
Tazawa was HR prone, which he already had become, and then got injured. Ziegler has been in literally every game. He mostly hasn’t given much up outside of the month of May, but Mattingly brings him in to really dumb situations. Now he is on the DL. If his arm doesn’t fall off b/c of his usage, same with McGowan, then I still think he’ll be useful for someone…Marlins SP has been so terrible, they need 4 or 5 relievers every night. Bullpen was burnt out by the end of April
They Yankees should look at trading for Bour and taking on Chen’s contract after this year since they will have plenty of money available. This would lower the cost significantly and give NYY a solid first baseman and MIA some salary relief.
but Chen’s contact is so bad he’s been bad, and now is getting TOS it looks like dead wight and the Yanks need to get under the tax. that said boar is a good option and wouldn’t cost that much on his own
Arods and sabathias money are gone which leaves plenty to get under.
Kyle Barraclough might as well be included in the longer term assets section too
He initially was, but when I reordered the list of names, I accidentally omitted him. I went back and added him now.
I didn’t find a trade of Barraclough especially likely since he has five years of control remaining, but Jerry Crasnick linked him to the Hechavarria talks this afternoon.
A few hours ago, I’d have dismissed the notion that Miami would give up Barraclough just to shed a modest commitment to Hechavarria, but we’ve seen much stranger things out of Loria in the past.
As a Marlins fan, I’d move Barraclough regardless. He is Carlos Marmol. If he has value, which he should with 5 years left, as you said, get something out of him. I’d move Wittgren too, to be honest. Relievers are the one thing the Marlins have some depth in their organization in. If they can bring back some talent getting rid of Ramos, Barraclough, Phelps, and Wittgren, that’s a plus and a really good start. We’re desperate for some talent in the organization
As for moving him to move the money on Hech, I don’t agree with that, but as you said, it’s the number 1 play of Loria’s playbook
Sadly, you can never dismiss any idea if it would save Jeffrey Loria some money.
Those days of the Yankees taking some other teams bad contracts are long ago in the rear view mirror. The only way that ever happens again is if the payroll tax is disbanded.
when have they ever done that as strictly taking on a salary dump?
Exactly