NOV. 6: Holland has formally declined his option, reports MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The Rockies are expected to attempt to re-sign him to a multi-year pact, per Harding, and a $17.4MM qualifying offer is a virtual certainty. (Holland already rejected a one-year deal at $15MM by declining his option, after all.)
OCT. 12: Rockies closer Greg Holland will decline his $15MM player option and re-enter the free agent market in search of a more lucrative multi-year deal, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman.
Once the option is formally declined, the Rockies will have the opportunity to make Holland a qualifying offer of a $17.4MM. Presumably, Holland will again reject that figure, thus setting up the Rox to recoup some draft pick compensation if he ultimately signs elsewhere.
This decision from Holland was largely expected, though his shaky second half at least created a marginal sense of doubt after an opt-out looked to be a virtual lock as late into the season as the non-waiver trade deadline. Set to turn 32 this offseason, Holland posted a brilliant 1.56 ERA through 40 1/3 innings from Opening Day to Aug. 4, but he limped to the finish line with a ghastly 8.47 ERA in his final 17 regular-season innings before serving up another pair of runs in the NL Wild Card game. In his defense, he did pitch quite well in September; the damage was primarily confined to one abysmal eight-game stretch in August.
Holland was legitimately dominant for the season’s first couple of months, although as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out during his August swoon, there were red flags about his performance long before his ERA eventually reflected a decline. Holland’s velocity dipped partway through the season (though it did bounce back even in the midst of his ugly finish), and he began to struggle with his control as early on as June. Not only was Holland struggling with walks, but he was also unable to command his fastball within the strike zone, Cameron observed, throwing an abnormal number of middle-middle fastballs.
That said, it’s perhaps not entirely surprising that Holland would fade a bit down the stretch. The 2017 season was his first effort back after missing the entire 2016 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Agent Scott Boras will undoubtedly chalk some of Holland’s late dip in performance up to that fact, staking the claim that he’ll hold up better now that he’s had a full year to rebuild some arm strength. There’s likely some truth to the argument, though it’s of course nearly impossible to determine how much of Holland’s late struggles are attributable to the surgery.
Even with Holland’s end-of-season woes, though, his overall numbers on the year look solid. He wrapped up the 2017 season with a 3.61 ERA and an impressive 11.0 K/9 mark through 57 1/3 innings. While he averaged 4.1 BB/9, Holland averaged 1.1 HR/9 despite the league-wide uptick in homers and despite playing half his games at Coors Field. Of the seven homers he allowed, five came in that dreadful August slump.
Holland will be hitting the open market at roughly the same age that Mark Melancon did before scoring a then-record-setting four-year, $62MM contract with the Giants. Holland’s late slide and relative proximity to Tommy John surgery could put that contract out of reach, but it’s sure to be a talking point for Boras this offseason when negotiating with interested parties. And even if Holland comes up shy of that sum, it still stands to reason that he’s all but certain to considerably out-earn the one year and $15MM he’s leaving on the table to again test free agency.
[Related: Colorado Rockies depth chart and payroll outlook]
For the Rockies, Holland will be just one of multiple relievers departing for the open market. He’ll be joined by two of the team’s top setup men: lefty Jake McGee and righty Pat Neshek. Beyond that, the Rox also stand to lose right-handed starter Tyler Chatwood to free agency, leaving GM Jeff Bridich no shortage of work to do when it comes to rounding out his team’s pitching staff.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Wonder if the Cardinals would be players for this guy….hope they re-sign Nicasio instead.
Maybe the tigers would sign him he’s a veteran guy who can help the young bullpen pitchers
That would defeat the purpose of a rebuid.
you need older players to teach the younger guys things that their coaches can’t tell them without experience
Yeah, but not at the cost of 15+MM a year…
veteran presents
Again, not at that cost
they do often give nice gifts.
Oh he’s giving out presents?
Santa has presence… thats right
Usually that’s why you hire coaches, is because they are older
and have the experience .
Holland was really kind of worthless to the Rockies the last month, month and a half of the season. Rockies are lucky he is not staying.
Quite frankly, I think he has some nerve!
Why does he have some nerve? It’s called a player option for a reason.
No. Just no.
Yea how dare he try to improve his life…
After about 1 million, isn’t his life already pretty good?
Probably so! Not sure why this means he can’t try and earn more as you seem to insinuate. Stunning how people are so set that it’s ok for a team to cut bait as soon as something better comes along, but the player is a villain if they try as much. If anyone is “at fault”, it’s the Rockies front office for signing him to a contract with this option. But realistically, this is probably best case scenario for team and player. Holland now signs a good sized reliever deal in free agency. The Rockies paid him for one year and he was a big part of them making it to Wild Card game. If he was not part of the bullpen I think the Rockies would have been under Brewers in standings. Sure that’s as far as they got, but it stands as a major improvement for the team. The team that signs him to his next deal is probably the only one who really “pays” for this opt out. Literally and figuratively. If he signs something like Melancon’s deal, I’d say it’s quite a risky contract for team.
And what does he do once he isn’t capable of earning thy anymore?
I think it makes sense for him and it is within his CBA rights. He opts out and either gets to go on the market, get an $18.1 QO. That’s a raise of $3.1 million for doing it if the Rockies elect to put the offer on him. If he takes the QO then after 2018 he is truly a FA without the compensation tag since he can only receive one. Opting out was a no brainer in my mind for him.
Rockies would be fool’s to give Holland the QO. Let him walk and reallocate the saved 15mil. (Weiters, another Boras client, took the QO. )
SO, he has some nerve to give the ROckies what you say is best?
How dare he honor a contract that both parties signed.
Twins should go for this guy,
He doesn’t have good sabermetric stats, so the Twins computer algorithm-based robots in the front office will look for a better value.
This puts the Rockies in the market for a closer again. Should be interesting to see if they make an effort to bring him back.
This surprises me a bit. I wonder whether using the player option and trying to negotiate an extension would have made more sense. Holland should be able to find more total money (and I expect Boras to ask for a Chapman deal) but he runs the risk of people taking his late season struggles as an indicator of health and future performance.
Yeah, you’re right! Steve Adams over at MLBTR just wrote an article about that very thing titled “Greg Holland to Decline Player Option In Favor of Free Agency.” Have you read it?
Steve Adams? Hmmm, I’ve heard of him, but I thought he wrote about politics. Mind sending me the link?
mike156: Ironic, you looking for the Missing Link……
Lester figures you would quote Alanis…..
not sure why you’re angry?
I’m hoping the Rockies can find a closer from among the young starters or veteran relievers already on the roster. There are lots of candidates in-house for the job. Good luck next year Greg, and you were the team MVP the first half of this year with your saves.
They need to find someone that can adjust to pitching in Coors to close
You mean, someone who doesn’t have to throw an actual baseball?
Lmao
Interesting. A 32 year old in his first season coming off TJ surgery and faded badly down the stretch. Not sure how many teams going to be willing to pony up for that. Melancon was a year younger when he signed his deal, and his less than stellar 2017(and injury issues) is a cautionary tale for anyone trying to sign a guy of Holland’s age and injury history. But Bora$$ is his agent, and probably has been whispering sweet nothings in his ear. Has Bora$$ ever failed to take a client into free agency? I could see Holland exceeding $15M in a 2 year deal, but highly unlikely he will even sniff $15/yr.
You kinda come across like Boras is in the wrong for getting the best for his clients…
Melancon was 4 months younger when he hit FA than Holland will be. The 4 year/$62MM Melancon deal will be the starting point for negotiations for Holland. Topping that is certainly not out of the question. Based on his K/9, H/9, and other peripherals compared to Melancon, Boras will ask for more and settle around 4/$60-65mm
“Has Bora$$ ever failed to take a client into free agency? ”
Yes. Strasburg.
Weaver? CarGo?
The Rockies should make a QO and call it a day if he rejects it. The risks outweigh the pros IMO.
Take the 18Million if they offer it. A solid year and the value of any deal next off-season won’t be much less than this year, and could be more lucrative if he exceeds his value this past season.
Holland will get a guarantee far in excess of $18 million. The Melancon deal will probably be a starting point for negotiations.
He’s not getting Melancon money after the 2nd half fade. And the Giants would gladly take that deal back.
Bud Black over use Holland just like he did all of Rockies young starter. More than half will probably have tommy john surgey due to bod black over use 40-50 inings to 150 is to big a jump.
What Rockies starting pitcher had 40-50 IP in 2016? Marquez had 186.2, Freeland had 162.0, Gray had 176.2, Hoffman had 150. Senzatela was injured most of last year but had 154 IP in 2015. So who is this imaginary starter that jumped from 40-50 IP to 150 that you are talking about?
A good fit in KC.. bullpen not has good since 2015. Drop soria..sign Holland
Why on earth will Kansas pay a lot of money for a reliever? They’re going to be bad and bad teams shouldn’t invest in relievers. Yes, I know San Fran did, but nobody seen how they were going to be totally awful this year
At 32, he’s on the downside of his career. Rockies are much better off with the additional draft pick. Re-sign McGee to close and Neshek to set up.
Neshek definitely won’t have a terrible next year, but definitely a down year based off of his age, and more emphasized due to playing in Coors
Kinda crazy. I don’t see him topping 6 mil annually in free agency, and I don’t see him topping 4 years. He would have been better off playing the one year and getting a contract next year.
Darren O’day got a four year deal and he was 33. He should try to repeat anything close to this year and add more on top of the $18MM cake. Yes, yes, O’Day never got more than $8MM in a year and his contract total is $31MM, with $7.75MM AAV.
But the market will adjust in 2018, and a 2 year sample size. (Post-TJ)
Melancon’s deal couldn’t have gone worse, year 1. I wouldn’t bring up Melancon’s name. He did 31+ year old relievers a disservice unless you got the track record of A. Miller.
I feel like Boras would remind teams why it’s never wise to open your wallets and shell out $$ on aged relievers, if he brought up Melancon’s deal as a starting point. It would be a different point, had Melancon succeeded Y1.
That’s $18m in one year. So yeah, he could almost certainly get at least that much on a three-year contract. Maybe even two.
The real math is whether Boras can market him as a premium closer. We know the market on them is in the neighborhood of $15-18m per. Personally I don’t see where he proved that kind of value in 2017. So it seems if he trusts his arm he should have taken the $15m from the Rockies and gone back on the free agent market after proving himself next year.
I agree with this completely.
Well, QO is officially $17.4MM now. I wonder if that changes little, if anything, regarding both parties decision to tender/accept $17.4MM.
Think it’s weird how he is so automatically being compared to elite pitchers. Yes he was dominant to start the year and has been elite in the past, but he also had a 3.6 era this year and wasn’t healthy enough to throw a pitch last year.
I would like to see him comped to guys with those stats more than his being comped to the guy who threw 70 innings per year of 1.8 era or whatever Melancon did for the 3-4 years. leading up to fa,
This guy wants that much and look at a guy for example like Peter Moylan, career ERA 3.00 and sometimes has struggled to get a contract and has had to go through spring training trials and then get the minimum. Moylan inherited 64 runners and just 15 of those scored. Yes, he’s just a sidearm submariner reliever but look at the job he did. He pitched as many innings as Holland and did `a sterling job. If Holland is worth 15-$18m then Moylan is worth more than the minimum contract to be fair. I would never ever give someone that is 32 3 years, 2 years maybe.
Not a surprise. He should get a decent multi-year salary bump. Rockies should extend a qualifying offer….$18.1 million would still be a good value for Holland. They will likely get a draft pick though, and get some value for losing out on him in addition to the value they got from him the past year. He really solidified their bullpen, and helped get them to the postseason. Bridich will have his work cut out to rebuild the bullpen again, but the Rockies now have a nice young core of position players and starting pitching. So it’s not like he has to rebuild multiple parts of the team this offseason.
Holland and Davis setup and closer for the cubs. Make it happen Theo.
The Cubs can’t afford both Davis and Holland. They need to shop for 2 good starters to replace Arrieta and Lackey and this winter that won’t be cheap. They have no trade bait either unless they want to offload Schwarber and Heyward and they’d have to eat a lot of Heywards massive contract.
Epstein better get creative this winter. The Cards have plenty of trade bait, and a load of cash. I look for them to be making major trades this winter to return to their past form. If the Brewers improve too this winter, look for the NL Central to become a very tough cat fight and become the toughest division in MLB again.
Wishful thinking that’s all. There’s still that slim chance arrieta returns to the cubs. They need two starters and they gotta do everything they can to re-sign Davis. They aren’t trading anyone on the 25 man roster thats just ludicrous. They have plenty of money to spend. Tom Ricketts basically has no limit on spending his father’s money. Look at the facts here. They spent anywhere from 150k – 250k on 1908 world series rings. Including giving them out to former players , their next to kin and Steve bartman. I highly doubt they’d limit the spending there. They will do what it takes to keep that core together. Bryzzo will in line for a massive pay raise in 2 years. Personally I’d start negotiating with Bryant winter 2018 starting at 10years @270mil. I guarantee you he’ll get 300mil. Rizzo should get close to the same length.
It’s a shame they can’t go after Shoei Otani. He’d look great in cubbie blue
As a Cards fan, I hope they want no part in this. Every aging reliever we go out and get ends up being trash. We should trade for a closer honestly. Bryan Shaw would be a great fit, and it remains to be seen what the Tribe will do with him.
Bryan Shaw is a closer? He barely ever pitched after the 7th inning.
I’m not saying he was a closer, but the guy should be. Look at his stats, even his advanced stats. Don’t be surprised if he is a closer soon for a team and does a great job.
He has a proven track record and should be given an opportunity to be a closer.
Just because he isn’t a closer doesn’t mean we can’t trade for him to be a closer…
Even has a post season era of 2.45 in 23 innings. So yeah… we should trade for Shaw to be a closer.
I think Greg Holland is a Paul Heyman kinda guy. My client Brock Lesnar says that Holland will sign with the cardinals 4yrs/42-50 mil.