2017-18 Free Agent Profiles

Free Agent Profile: Greg Holland

By Kyle Downing | January 17, 2018 at 8:32am CDT

After missing all of the 2016 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, right-hander Greg Holland enjoyed somewhat of a bounceback 2017 while closing for the Rockies. After a 41-save campaign, he turned down both a player option and a qualifying offer in search of a more lucrative, multi-year pact.

Pros/Strengths

During Holland’s heyday with the Royals from 2012-2014, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman were the only qualifying relievers with a better FIP than Holland’s 1.83. He also carried the majors’ 5th-highest strikeout rate (13.02 K/9) and ranked 2nd among relievers in Win Probability Added (8.38). I could list a hailstorm of other statistics that prove Holland’s dominance, but the above rankings should paint a clear enough picture: he was long one of the game’s preeminent closers. That experience in high leverage situations may also prove a plus, including the seven late-inning leads he converted to saves during the 2014 postseason.

Even during an up-and-down 2017 season, Holland managed to strike out 10.99 batters per nine innings. While that’s not quite to the elite level he achieved during the window mentioned above, it’s still earned him a spot in MLB’s top-30 relievers in that regard. There’s no reason to expect he won’t continue to rack up the K’s.

Among the Colorado free agent’s pitch arsenal is an absolutely lethal slider. He threw the pitch even more often than his fastball in 2017, and with great results; opposing hitters managed a wRC+ of just 10 in plate appearances ending with that pitch. Fangraphs’ pitch value estimators suggest that Holland’s slider was worth 2.77 runs per 100 uses. The opposition hit just .139/.173/.230 against it while striking out a whopping 58 times.

Cons/Weaknesses

The most prominent risk to signing Holland is that he’s no sure bet to stay healthy. While he proved durable during his peak with the Royals, his 2015 campaign began with an April DL stint due to a pectoral strain, and ended with a UCL tear in September. Holland managed to stay healthy for a vast majority of the 2017 season, but his peripheral stats overall weren’t indicative of the dominance he boasted during his healthy years. While some may point may point to the fact that he played his home games in Coors Field, his ERA in away games was actually higher than it was in Denver.

Even if he can avoid the disabled list, Holland is three years removed from elite reliever status. Yes, he collected 41 saves last season, but his overall performance on the mound was decidedly average. That’s not hyperbole; out of 155 qualified relievers in 2017, Holland ranked middle-of-the-pack in ERA (87th), FIP (76th) and xFIP (86th). Judging by reports that he turned down a strong offer from the Rockies already this winter, it’s fair to infer that the 32-year-old wants to be paid in part for his past reputation, which he’s far from a lock to live up to given that it’s quite distant in the rearview mirror, and that his average fastball last season was nearly 3 MPH lower than it was over the course of the 2014 campaign .

There’s another glaring weakness worth noting… Holland has struggled mightily with control in each of his last two seasons. His BB/9 marks were 5.24 and 4.08 in 2015 and 2017, respectively. It’s not the first time he’s had walk issues, either; the righty’s 2012 campaign was stained by a 4.57 BB/9 as well. It’s fair to be skeptical about whether he’ll be able to hold ninth-inning leads if he can’t control the free passes. One additional fun fact: batters who are able to work a 3-0 count on Holland have reached base over 84% of the time over the course of his career.

Background

The Royals selected Gregory Scott Holland out of West Carolina University in the 10th round of the 2007 draft. He was utilized as a reliever from the get-go, and made his major league debut with a one-inning appearance in 2010.

It didn’t take him long to make an impact. Holland posted fantastic results out of Kansas City’s bullpen from April 2011 through July 2012, prompting the Royals to make him their closer following a midseason trade of Jonathan Broxton to the Reds. As discussed above, he enjoyed a lengthy run as one of the top relievers in the game up through the 2014 playoffs, during which he led a late-inning trio of Royals relievers (which also included Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera) that proved one of the most formidable of all time.

Market

At the outset of the 2017-2018 offseason, MLBTR ranked Holland as the 10th-best free agent available on our list of the winter’s top 50. He’s now one of just two relievers remaining on that list (#44 Tony Watson is the other), including the honorable mentions. To see him still available in January of an offseason where relievers have flown off the shelves at unexpectedly high prices is somewhat surprising, although his agent Scott Boras has certainly been patient in the past.

There’s no denying that said patience has paid off more than once. One need not look any further than Prince Fielder and Max Scherzer for examples of Boras clients who’ve signed lucrative deals in late January. That being said, Holland seems to be in a very unfavorable position at present. The Cardinals, who were thought to be one of his chief suitors back in November (and our predicted destination for the righty), pivoted to Luke Gregerson; while they are still a potential landing spot for a closer, the team is said to have “at most, tempered” interest in Holland. The Rockies, too, are seemingly no longer a realistic landing spot for him following their signings of Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and Davis to three-year guarantees. Typically high-spending teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Giants now sit quite close to the luxury tax threshold and seem determined to remain beneath it for 2018, while the Red Sox are already above that $197MM figure headed into 2018. Given that those organizations already control top-end closers, they aren’t likely to splurge on Holland. The Nationals, too, are already in a position to exceed that ceiling due to complexities in the tax rules; more importantly, in that case, the team likely feels comfortable with its existing late-inning mix.

Of course, that doesn’t mean there aren’t still practical fits for Holland. The Astros, Cubs, Rangers and Brewers stand out as potential contenders with both a clear need for a reliever and the capacity to add some payroll (indeed, the Astros in particular are said to be looking for a high-leverage arm). But judging by the lack of rumors surrounding Holland over the past month or so, it’s fair to wonder whether he’s engaged in a metaphorical staring contest with one or more teams in relation to the type of contract he’s seeking.

Expected Contract

It’s been reported that Holland began the offseason seeking a five-year deal, which seemed unlikely from the start and is even harder to imagine now. Frankly, it would be quite a shock if Boras was able to find Holland a deal of that length at this point; such a contract would last through his age-37 season and has significant downside considering the health and durability concerns stemming from his 2015 elbow surgery and up-and-down second half in 2017, respectively. At the same time, Holland was able to prove that he’s still a talented strikeout artist, even if he hasn’t bounced back quite to his pre-injury capability in that regard. Considering that even Wade Davis, a superior option, ended up settling for three years, I think Holland’s likely to end up doing the same. A three-year contract with a $39MM guarantee seems like a plausible estimate at this point in the offseason, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up with some performance incentives or a Shaw-esque vesting option for a fourth season.

Free Agent Profile: Alex Cobb

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2018 at 1:41pm CDT

Alex Cobb looked every bit the part of a rising star in the Rays’ rotation before Tommy John surgery wiped him out for nearly two full seasons. His first year back was successful enough that he rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from Tampa Bay in order to test the waters of free agency.

Pros / Strengths

Cobb has a career 3.50 ERA, and fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.68), xFIP (3.62) and SIERA (3.73) all largely support that bottom-line run prevention mark. He’s long displayed above-average control, never averaging more than three walks per nine innings pitched in a full season, and the 2017 campaign was his best in that regard (2.2 BB/9). Home runs have also never been a big problem for Cobb. That was true in 2017 as well, as he allowed a manageable 1.1 HR/9 in a season that saw MLB hitters put the ball over the fence at increasing levels.

If Cobb’s overall 2017 numbers don’t immediately stand out and generate excitement, it’s perhaps worth looking at the strong fashion in which he finished the campaign. It’s only seven starts, but in his final 38 1/3 innings of the year, Cobb’s K/BB numbers took off. In that time, he averaged a dramatically improved 8.9 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 with a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate. His 38-to-8 K/BB ratio in that time was nothing short of excellent. For a pitcher that was still trying to distance himself from Tommy John surgery and rediscover the form he showed in 2013-14 (2.82 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 56% grounder rate in 309 2/3 innings), that was a heartening finish.

Cobb is also the youngest of the top starting pitchers on the free agent market. He’ll pitch all of the 2018 regular season at the age of 30, not turning 31 until October 7. Jake Arrieta, meanwhile, will turn 32 in March; Yu Darvish will be 32 come August; and Lance Lynn turns 31 in May.

Cons / Weaknesses

Cobb’s finish to the season was nothing short of excellent, but the first 22 starts he made in 2017 were decidedly pedestrian. His 3.89 ERA in that time was solid, to be sure, as was his 2.3 BB/9 mark. However, Cobb was carrying a paltry 5.7 K/9 through his first 22 starts of the year and averaging 91.4 mph on his fastball. (Those marks jumped to 8.2 and 92.4 in his strong finish to the season; Cobb has previously exhibited similar intra-season velo gains.) Cobb’s 4.43 FIP, 4.58 xFIP and 4.79 SIERA all painted a much uglier picture than his more palatable ERA. For most of the season, Cobb looked more like a fifth starter than a mid-rotation arm.

There’s reason to wonder if Cobb can maintain the uptick in strikeouts he displayed late in the year as well, given that he posted a dismal six percent swinging-strike rate in that seven-start span. In fact, Cobb’s overall 6.7 percent swinging-strike rate was the third-lowest of any qualified starting pitcher in 2017. He topped only Ty Blach and Andrew Cashner — who posted MLB’s two lowest K/9 rates — in that regard.

The biggest knock against Cobb, though, is that he simply hasn’t stayed on the field often enough in his big league career. Since debuting in 2011, Cobb has missed time due to a hand injury, a concussion that wiped out a third of his 2013 season, oblique issues and 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s never made more than 29 starts in a season and has never even reached the 180-inning mark. His agents can try to pitch him as a “low mileage arm” as a result, but the argument doesn’t carry all that much weight when the disabled list is the driving factor behind his low innings total and he has already had Tommy John surgery.

Like Arrieta and Lynn, Cobb rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from his previous team, so he’ll require the forfeiture of draft compensation for any team that wishes to sign him. Teams that paid the luxury tax in 2017 and teams that did not receive revenue sharing will also have to surrender a portion of their 2018-19 international bonus pool space to sign Cobb.

Market

Since the onset of free agency, Cobb has been regarded among the second tier of starting pitchers, ranking alongside Lynn in that regard, while both Darvish and Arrieta are considered to be the top two starters available. Of that quartet, only Darvish did not receive a qualifying offer (by virtue of the fact that he was traded midseason).

To date, Cobb has been tied most prominently to the Cubs. That makes plenty of sense given a potentially open rotation spot (assuming Mike Montgomery moves back to the bullpen) as well as clear connections to Cobb from his Rays days (manager Joe Maddon, new pitching coach Jim Hickey). Chicago reportedly made Cobb a three-year offer at a guaranteed total of $42MM. Cobb is said to have rejected that deal, and I’ll delve more into his earning capacity in the section that follows.

Beyond the Cubs, he’s been tied to the Twins, the Brewers, the Rangers and, much earlier in the offseason, the Orioles and Yankees. New York has since re-signed CC Sabathia, though the Yankees reportedly are maintaining interest in Darvish, so perhaps they’d have interest in Cobb at the right price. Then again, none of the names to which they’ve been prominently connected are associated with draft compensation.

Beyond that group, the Cardinals and Phillies are among the teams that are still reportedly seeking rotation upgrades to varying extents, though neither has been directly linked to Cobb. The Blue Jays, also, are said to be weighing the addition of a starting pitcher, as are the Dodgers (where president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman knows Cobb well from his own time with the Rays). Meanwhile, over in D.C., it’s unclear who will lock down the fifth spot in the rotation. To be clear, none of those teams is reported to be a serious pursuer of Cobb so much as they’re more generally reported to be exploring rotation additions. Presumably, once a combination of Darvish, Arrieta and/or Lynn come off the board, Cobb could see some new teams more seriously linked to his services.

Expected Contract

Reports early in the offseason suggested that Cobb was seeking upwards of $100MM over a five-year term, though FanRag’s Jon Heyman recently wrote that Cobb is now believed “willing” to sign a four-year deal at a total of $70MM or a five-year deal worth $80MM. Despite a fairly robust group of potential landing spots, those numbers range from ambitious ($70-80MM) to outlandish ($100MM), in my view.

Certainly, a pitcher doesn’t need to be an ace to secure $70-80MM in the modern financial climate of MLB. Ian Kennedy ($70MM), Mike Leake ($80MM) and Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM) have received five-year deals in the past two years. Kennedy and Chen even received opt-out provisions in their contracts. On a per-inning basis, I’d take Cobb over anyone from that trio. Cobb’s agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council — the same agency that represents Leake — are no doubt making a similar case in pitching their client to teams.

Unfortunately, one can hardly look at Cobb on a per-inning basis and compare him to other starters. Each of the starters in that group averaged at least 29 starts per season in the years leading up to free agency. Teams banked on them as durable sources of respectable innings. Cobb? The 29 starts he made in 2017 were a career-high, as were the 179 1/3 innings he threw.

Cobb has made 25 starts in a season just twice in his career, and he’s never reached the 180-inning plateau — even when combining Major League, minor league and postseason innings. It’s true that teams are leaning more heavily on the bullpen and asking starters to turn a lineup over for a third time with diminished frequency. But, it’s not reasonable to project Cobb to top 180 innings, and it’d be optimistic to even forecast him to approach last year’s total of 179 1/3 frames. Steamer projects Cobb at 133 innings; Baseball-Reference projects him to tally 152 — which would be only the third time in his career that he’s reached that level.

None of this is to disparage Cobb. In fact, when projecting Cobb’s contract for our annual Top 50 free agent rankings — MLBTR pegged Cobb at a four-year, $48MM deal — I was the most aggressive member of the MLBTR staff when deciding what prediction to place next to his name. It took numerous exchanges in our debate to get Cobb pushed up to the Brandon McCarthy deal.

The parallels with McCarthy, though, are significant. When I was writing McCarthy’s free agent profile three years ago, I noted that no pitcher with fewer than two seasons of 180+ innings had signed a guaranteed four-year deal in free agency. McCarthy set a precedent, in that regard, by inking a four-year, $48MM deal despite only having one season meeting that admittedly arbitrary criteria. No pitcher has matched the feat since.

Entering the offseason, I believed it was possible that the overall market for starting pitching had moved forward to the point that Cobb could secure a four-year guarantee despite the lack of durability on his resume. At the time, I’d have been comfortable predicting Cobb at anywhere between $52-56MM over a four-year term, recognizing that he at one point looked to be a potential emerging upper-echelon starter and showed glimpses of that down the stretch in 2017. (And, as previously noted, the increased emphasis on bullpen usage lessens the need for a starter to be able to rack up 200+ innings on the regular.) If Cobb is still dead set on maxing out his dollars on a four-year deal, then I think that range still applies.

However, the more I think about it, the more Cobb strikes me as a candidate for a “pillow” type of contract. “Pillow” deals in 2018, though, aren’t the same as they were even five years ago. Rather than traditional one-year deals, newfangled pillow contracts are more frequently multi-year pacts with significant guarantees that include early opt-out clauses, as we’ve seen recently from Yoenis Cespedes, Scott Kazmir, Matt Wieters and Greg Holland.

If the Cubs were really willing to offer Cobb $42MM over a three-year term, then perhaps it shouldn’t be that difficult to find a club that would offer a slightly larger guarantee with an opt-out after the first year. That’d effectively be the contract that Kazmir signed with the Dodgers — three years, $48MM with an opt-out after year one — and would leave Cobb with a notable payday and the opportunity to prove that he’s now capable of tossing 180+ innings (or thereabouts) in consecutive seasons. As an added and certainly significant bonus, Cobb would hit the market without the burden of draft-pick compensation next year, were he able to remain healthy and build on his strong finish, as the new CBA stipulates that players can only receive one QO in their career.

Bottom line: if Cobb wants to max out his guarantee, I still think he can land a four-year deal in the range of $52-56MM. But, if his camp is dead set on a $70-80MM payday, I’m not sure it’ll be there. Instead, he should consider seeking something in the Kazmir range — $45-48MM over three years with an opt-out clause — while hoping to re-enter the market next offseason when he won’t be tied to draft compensation and can potentially have another largely healthy season under his belt.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Lance Lynn

By Tim Dierkes | December 28, 2017 at 3:44pm CDT

Lance Lynn, a right-handed starting pitcher who turns 31 in May, has spent his entire career with the Cardinals since being drafted in 2008. He’s one of the four best starting pitchers on the free agent market, and he’ll continue seeking a multiyear deal in the new year.

Pros/Strengths

Though Lynn missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he otherwise carries a reputation of durability. In each of the pitcher’s other five seasons, he’s made at least 29 starts. Lynn was one of only 12 pitchers to make 33 regular season starts in 2017, a claim only Ricky Nolasco can make among fellow free agents.

Lynn has delivered results throughout his big league career. He’s never posted an ERA above 4.00 in a season, and carries a 3.38 career mark that he basically matched this year. While Lynn lacks supporting stats to back up this year’s 3.43 ERA, consider this from Eno Sarris of FanGraphs:

“But not only is there an existing fastball-mixing skill that’s not currently captured by projections in his current arsenal, there’s potential for an emerging new pitch [a changeup] in there as well. Lynn’s an intriguing watch, and signing, for a guy who mostly throws fastballs.”

Some teams may look at Lynn as a pitcher with a track record of success and durability, plus some upside given the right tweaks.

Cons/Weaknesses

In attempting to make a post-Tommy John assessment of Lynn’s abilities, we only have his 186 1/3 innings this year. He posted career-worsts in three key categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. His walk rate was second-worst among all qualified starters. Using SIERA, it was a blend of skills that suggested a 4.85 ERA, much worse than his actual 3.43 mark. Lynn benefited from a .244 batting average on balls in play, which is not considered a repeatable mark. To his benefit in the future, Lynn’s 14.2% home run per flyball rate probably won’t stay that high. Still, it just wasn’t an intriguing mix of skills this year. A team signing Lynn has to hope or expect to bring back his prior abilities. His second half, with even worse strikeout and walk rates, did not qualify as progress.

While Lynn should be able to take the ball every fifth day, he’s not likely to save a team’s bullpen. Of 58 starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Lynn ranked 42nd with an average of 5.64 innings per start.

Lynn rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November, so he’ll come with a draft pick cost attached.

Background

Lynn was drafted 39th overall by the Cardinals in 2008 out of the University of Mississippi. He was a supplemental pick for the loss of free agent reliever Troy Percival, who had inked an $8MM deal with the Rays. Among those born in Indiana with at least 900 career innings pitched, Lynn ranks sixth with a .605 career winning percentage, behind Art Nehf.

Market

The Rangers, Brewers, and Orioles have been linked to Lynn to some degree in reports this offseason. Other theoretical fits could include the Angels, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs, Phillies, and Mets. There seems to be little momentum for a return to the Cardinals. Lynn must contend with fellow free agent Alex Cobb, who is in a similar tier. Plus, if the price somehow drops far enough on Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, those pitchers could interfere with Lynn’s market. In fact, they may be currently holding it up.

Expected Contract

Back in October, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote that Lynn would pursue a deal like the five-year, $110MM pact signed by Jordan Zimmermann signed two years ago. We went with a four-year, $56MM projection, which I’ll upgrade to four years and $60MM. Normally at this point in the offseason, we’d call for reduced contracts, but it’s unclear whether that will happen given the sheer volume of unsigned quality free agents.

Free Agent Profile: Logan Morrison

By Kyle Downing | December 19, 2017 at 2:46pm CDT

After six seasons of largely pedestrian play at the major league level, Logan Morrison enjoyed a huge power breakout in 2017. As he enters the free agent market, he’ll hope teams are willing to believe his newfound success at the plate is sustainable.

Pros/Strengths

Prior to this past season, few would have believed a prediction that “LoMo” would hit as many home runs as a healthy Edwin Encarnacion. Fast forward to October, and those two sat tied for fifth among the American League’s home run leaders (along with Justin Smoak and Mike Moustakas). The Rays first baseman also finished fifth in ISO in the AL.

Morrison’s power breakout came during a season in which he made adjustments to his swing, helping him hit more balls in the air. “Valuing… launch angle and all that stuff — has helped me out a lot,” he said to Fangraphs’ David Laurila back in August. Whatever adjustments Morrison made, they worked like a charm. His fly ball rate skyrocketed from 34.7% to 46.2%; that amounts to a whopping 33% increase in fly balls over last season.

Combined with a slight increase in hard contact, Morrison’s ground ball/fly ball profile quickly went from being one of his biggest weaknesses to his clear biggest strength as a hitter. His HR/FB ratio climbed to 22.5%, up from just 15.2% the year prior. The result was a whopping 38 homers; 15 more than his previous career high back in 2011.

Morrison became more selective this past season, too. His previous career-high walk rate was 10.3%, but the first baseman blew past that total to reach 13.5% this season. And although he has a bit of a platoon split in the power department, LoMo actually walks about as often against lefties as he does against righties. All told, his OBP at season’s end was a respectable .353.

Cons/Weaknesses

Morrison’s most significant weakness is his contact ability. The lefty-hitter whiffs in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances (24.8%), giving him the 20th-highest strikeout rate among 144 qualified hitters. While he doesn’t often swing at bad pitches, he swings and misses a lot; Morrison’s 73.7% contact rate ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in MLB. The above figures are both downgrades from recent seasons, and clearly demonstrate the double-edged sword of his newfound “swing hard in case you hit it” approach.

LoMo’s suitors can’t count on him for much in the way of defense, either. Fangraphs has rated him as being well below average in every season of his major league career. It’s worth noting, however, that UZR/150 and DRS both pegged him as an ever-so-slightly above average first baseman in 2017 after years of being down on his work, so perhaps there’s not much to worry about.

But above any of that, it would be irresponsible not to consider the risk that Morrison might fail to replicate his 2017 success. Based on his change in approach at the plate it’s certainly possible he’ll sustain this level of production, some might even say probable. Still, it can’t be overlooked that he’s played below replacement level in three of his eight major league seasons, despite the pedigree he carried as a prospect. In fact, his previous career high in fWAR was only 1.1, which isn’t even a league-average performance. There’s always a chance that what looks like a breakout season could end up simply being an outlier, and if Morrison is paid for his 2017 power output, regression to his previous self would make his contract look terrible in retrospect.

Background

Justis Logan Morrison was born in Kansas City, Missouri. His father served in the coast guard, so Morrison traveled a lot during his younger years. He attended Northshore High School in Slidell, Louisiana, and was selected by the then-Florida Marlins after his senior year in 2005. Though he decided to attend community college, he ultimately ended up signing with the Marlins prior to the 2006 draft.

Over the next four years, Morrison climbed steadily throughout the minor leagues. He ranked 20th on Baseball America’s top prospects list prior to the 2010 season; a year in which he ultimately made his major league debut and hit .283/.390/.477. On December 11th, 2013 he was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Carter Capps. Morrison remained in Seattle until November 5th, 2015 when the Rays acquired him in a three-for-three swap.

Market

First basemen haven’t exactly been flying off the shelves this winter, but Morrison got a bit of bad news recently when the Red Sox re-signed Mitch Moreland to a two-year, $13MM deal. Boston reportedly met with Morrison’s representatives earlier this offseason; the organization had one of the strongest needs at first base among MLB teams (and one of baseball’s largest budgets as a means to fill it).

On the other hand, the Phillies’ three-year, $60MM agreement with Carlos Santana may actually be good news for Morrison’s market. Philadelphia was never seen as a strong candidate to sign the former Rays slugger, or really a first baseman in general; Rhys Hoskins seemed likely to open the season at first for the club, who will now be pushed to the outfield. Before he signed the offseason’s largest contract thus far, Santana was drawing strong interest from at least ten different teams within the past month, and those teams may now turn their attention to Morrison. He’s the best first baseman left on the shelves who doesn’t come with a nine-figure price tag.

The first base market is still crowded. Eric Hosmer, MLBTR’s third-ranked free agent, remains on the board as the most attractive option at the position. Yonder Alonso comes with a somewhat similar offensive profile, and could compete for attention from Morrison’s potential suitors. Lucas Duda, Mark Reynolds and Adam Lind are still hanging around in the bargain bin. Jose Abreu of the White Sox could still be traded, too.

Morrison has been connected to the Angels, who have already made a flurry of moves this offseason to improve their shot at a 2018 AL West pennant. It makes sense to think they could continue to explore signing him. The Rockies and Indians are both firmly in the market for a first baseman, while the Mariners, Astros and a reunion with the Rays all make some level of sense.

Expected Contract

The situation for Morrison doesn’t look much better or worse than it did at the outset of this offseason. The elimination of the Red Sox as a potential suitor hurts, but the average annual value of the contract given to Santana could work in LoMo’s favor during contract negotiations. All told, I think MLBTR’s original prediction of $36MM over a three-year term holds up well to this point.

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Santana

By Kyle Downing | December 11, 2017 at 10:24am CDT

Following his seventh-straight season of providing the Indians with at least 2 wins above replacement, Carlos Santana is a free agent. He’ll be looking to get paid for his consistency, batting eye and improved defense at first base.

Pros/Strengths

Santana’s signature strength is his fantastic eye at the plate. Since the beginning of the 2011 season (his first full season at the MLB level), no player in the American League has drawn more free passes. His 698 walks during that span lead second-place Jose Bautista by 44 and third-place Mike Trout by 118, while trailing only Joey Votto in all of baseball. Santana also carries elite contact ability: during the 2017 season, his 7.1% swinging strike rate ranked top 30 in the majors, while his 21.4% chase rate was within MLB’s top ten. Thanks to this skill set, Santana was one of just four players in baseball with a walk rate above 13% and a strikeout rate below 15% this past year. The others were Joey Votto, Anthony Rendon and Anthony Rizzo. There are dozens more statistics just like this one, but the point remains the same: Santana is one of the most patient players on the planet.

He can do more than simply take walks, though. Santana’s power is also well above average. He’s socked 168 bombs since the start of 2011; that puts him in baseball’s top 25 during that time period. In his seven full major league seasons, Santana has never hit fewer than 18 homers, and he’s hit as many as 34. While his career .445 slugging percentage and .196 ISO don’t leap off the page, those figures are certainly nothing to scoff at. In fact, that ISO is tied for the 51st-highest mark out of the 203 players who’ve accumulated at least 2,000 plate appearances since Santana’s career began. Make no mistake: Santana is a threat to hit the ball out of the park at any time.

In addition to his offensive skill set, Santana may well be one of the best defensive first basemen in the game. UZR/150 has always been bullish on his work, rating him as being between 4.6 and 5.3 runs above average per 150 games in each of the past three seasons. However, DRS hasn’t painted a pretty picture of his work in the past. In 2017, however, Santana graded out to 10 Defensive Runs Saved; nine full runs better than his previous career high at first.

Cons/Weaknesses

Although the longtime Cleveland Indian doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses, his true achilles heel lies in his batted ball profile. Although Santana is a switch-hitter, is tendency to pull the ball more than half the time makes him incredibly easy for opposing infields to shift against. Santana’s pull percentage has been greater than 50% in all but one season of his career; the remaining season was 2012, during which his pull rate was 48.1%. All told, Santana’s career pull rate is a whopping 52.9%. Since Santana came into the league, only Mark Teixiera and Chris Young have higher pull rates among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances. Furthermore, Santana’s batting average on ground balls hit to the pull side of the infield has never been higher than .145 in any season of his career. Santana’s lack of offensive versatility has led to prolonged slumps throughout his career. Opposing teams can greatly improve their pitching performance against him by following a simple formula: pitch him inside, generate ground balls and deploy an extreme pull shift.

Other than his pull penchant, however, Santana doesn’t really have much in the way of weaknesses. One small criticism of his hitting ability is that he’s performed poorly against knuckle curveballs; Santana’s career weighted runs created against that particular pitch is -2.36, which ranks 222nd of 268 players during the course of his major league career. However, the pitch is so rare that it’s hard to imagine that will affect his value on the free agent market.

One could say that while Santana is an above average hitter, he’s merely average among first basemen. While his consistency is impressive, it’s not like he’s been consistently a stud. During his tenure as a first base/DH type, Santana has never ranked higher than ninth in fWAR among first basemen. In essence, he’s a great hitter, but not a spectacular hitter relative to his position on the field.

Background

The Los Angeles Dodgers originally signed Santana out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006. In 2008, the Indians acquired him in the Casey Blake trade.

Though he plays first base now, Santana’s major-league debut was as a catcher, a position he played in the majority of games until 2014. After a brief experiment at third base that year, Santana became a full-time first baseman/designated hitter and hasn’t been behind the plate for a single inning during the past three seasons. He’s never worn a major league uniform for any team but the Indians, but officially became a free agent when he rejected Cleveland’s qualifying offer earlier this winter.

Market

The fact that he’s limited to first base will take many NL teams out of the running for Santana, shortening his list of suitors. The crowded free agent first base market this year could further drive down his value; if that occurs, though, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs sees potential for Santana to rate as a notable bargain. The Indians have already made him a contract offer, while the Padres and Rangers have also shown interest. Some other potential suitors include the Red Sox, A’s and Rockies.

Contract

Though MLBTR initially predicted that Santana would sign a three-year, $45MM contract with the Indians, the two sides weren’t able to work out a deal before Santana rejected their qualifying offer. The initial market for him seems fairly strong, and with his relative youth so many teams already in the mix, the original prediction now appears to be on the low side. Though the presence of Eric Hosmer and Logan Morrison on the market could limit his earning power, I’m guessing Santana will get a four-year deal worth no less than $60MM.

Free Agent Profile: Yu Darvish

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2017 at 11:11pm CDT

Yu Darvish hits the open market as both the top free agent pitcher available and, in MLBTR’s view, the top free agent of the entire 2017-18 class.

Strengths/Pros

After seven years of stardom in Japan, Darvish came to North American baseball with great fanfare in the 2011-12 offseason, and he has since lived up to the hype. In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has a 3.42 ERA, 11.04 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate, and 19 fWAR, firmly establishing himself as a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Tommy John surgery sidelined Darvish for all of 2015 and limited him to 100 1/3 innings in 2016, though he looked healthy in a full season of work last year plus an extended postseason run with the Dodgers. Darvish tossed a combined 201 1/3 innings between the regular season and playoffs, the second-highest total of his MLB career. Beyond just the workload, Darvish also set a new career best by averaging 94.2 mph on his fastball.

It’s worth noting that Darvish’s numbers with the Rangers prior to his deadline trade to L.A. were somewhat below his usual standard, thanks in part to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. While those home run issues continued after Darvish went from Texas to Los Angeles, he took quite well to pitching in the NL, posting better strikeout and walk rates as a Dodger than he did in 137 IP with the Rangers before the deal. His cumulative 10.08 K/9 for the season was the lowest of his career, though Darvish balanced that minor dip in punchouts with a 2.8 BB/9, continuing his trend of exhibiting better control throughout his big league career.

Since Darvish was dealt during the season, he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, and thus a team doesn’t have to give up any draft picks or international bonus money in order to sign him. This gives Darvish a slight edge over his top competition in free agency, as Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb all have QO compensation attached to their services.

Weaknesses/Cons

Beyond the obvious red flag of the Tommy John surgery, Darvish has made five other trips to the disabled list during his MLB career, ranging from minor neck and back stiffness to rather lengthier DL stints for elbow and shoulder issues. Though Darvish just turned 31 last August, he has 2127 2/3 regular-season innings on his arm between both Japan and North America, not to mention extensive postseason work. While he hasn’t really exhibited any signs of slowing down, it’s easy to see how a team could be worried about committing nine figures to Darvish into his mid-30’s.

The spike in home runs allowed isn’t completely out of the blue (Darvish had a 14.4% homer rate in 2013), and clearly he was far from the only pitcher who ran into trouble with the long ball during a record-setting season for homers. Darvish’s 33.1% hard-hit ball rate was also a career-high, however, and his curveball was a below-average pitch in 2017 after previously being one of the most devastating weapons in his seven-pitch arsenal.

No discussion of Darvish is complete with mentioning his awful World Series performance, though that could just be chalked up to the Astros having his number. Darvish was very effective in his two starts earlier in the playoffs, and given the small-sample size factor of all postseason numbers, it’s hard to imagine any team wouldn’t be eager to give Darvish the ball this October.

Personal

Darvish has been dealing with the media spotlight since he was a teenager, rising from a highly-touted high school prospect into instant stardom with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. His move to Major League Baseball drew intense interest from several teams, with the Rangers making the high bid (under the old posting system) of $51.7MM just for the rights to talk terms with Darvish, eventually signing him to a six-year, $56MM deal.

Market

While Darvish has drawn significant interest from at least six teams, there haven’t been too many rumblings about Darvish or other top free agent hurlers given that the Shohei Ohtani chase has so dominated the offseason pitching market. Now that Ohtani has agreed to join the Angels, you can expect a least a few of the finalists in the Ohtani sweepstakes to turn their attention to Darvish, even though the veteran pitcher comes at a vastly higher price. Interest should be robust.

The Cubs have already made one notable rotation signing in Tyler Chatwood, though adding Darvish would further bolster an already-strong rotation. The Dodgers are also deep in pitching options, though they could explore a reunion with Darvish to guard against further rotation injuries. A return to the Rangers doesn’t seem very likely, while San Diego, San Francisco or Seattle are also longer shots based on costs, though the Mariners seem to be taking such an aggressive approach to this offseason that they can’t be totally ruled out.

Let’s not overlook the Angels themselves as possible candidates, as there has been some light speculation that Darvish and Ohtani could aim to be on the same team; the two are friends and Darvish is one of Ohtani’s idols. Anaheim has some payroll room even after extending Justin Upton, and with Darvish added to the promising but injury-riddled rotation, the Halos could even look to trade one of their excess starters in their attempts to add second base help.

The Twins and Cardinals have been linked to Darvish this winter, though St. Louis has already made one notable rotation addition and could be more focused on adding a big bat. Minnesota is something of a surprise suitor for Darvish on paper, though the club has enough open payroll space in future seasons that signing Darvish is actually feasible. (The Brewers are also a possible fit for the same reason.) The Orioles and Phillies badly need arms but the former won’t meet Darvish’s price and the Phillies may be a year away from augmenting their rebuild with big-ticket free agents. The Astros may prefer to earmark future money on extending their core players, though they make some sense for Darvish if they wanted to safeguard their rotation against Dallas Keuchel possibly leaving for free agency after 2018.

Expected Contract

MLBTR projected Darvish to land a six-year, $160MM contract this winter, which would work out to the fifth-highest average annual value given to any pitcher in baseball history. It’s a big investment given Darvish’s age and the miles already on his arm, though it also looks to be market value for such an ace-level hurler that reaches free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Mike Moustakas

By Mark Polishuk | December 5, 2017 at 8:44pm CDT

The Moose is loose on the free agent market, as Mike Moustakas looks to convert his big power year into a pricey multi-year contract.

Strengths/Pros

After playing in only 27 games in 2016 due to a torn right ACL, Moustakas rebounded to earn AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors after batting .272/.314/.521 with 38 homers over 598 plate appearances. He outhomered every full-time third baseman in baseball last season, and only seven players overall hit more than Moustakas’ 38 dingers. Between this performance, his breakout 2015 campaign, and even his abbreviated 2016 numbers, Moustakas has been a solidly above-average hitter over his last 1325 PA, creating 18% more (hypothetical) runs than the average hitter since the start of the 2015 season.

Moustakas’ 38 homers set a new Royals single-season record, breaking the surprisingly long-lasting old mark of 36 set by Steve Balboni back in 1985. Needless to say, Kauffman Stadium isn’t friendly to home run hitters, making Moustakas’ feat all the more impressive. Since much of his damage came away from Kansas City last year (.284/.326/.582 with 24 homers in 310 away-game plate appearances), it could be argued that Moustakas would be even more dangerous playing his home games in a less-spacious ballpark.

Prior to 2017, Moustakas had been a solid defender at third base, with the UZR/150 metric providing more consistently positive reviews about his glovework than the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

Moustakas just turned 29 in September, making him younger than most of the other top free agent batters. Going by the last few seasons, he’s reaching the open market right in the midst of his hitting prime, making him a safer bet for a long-term deal than older players who may have more overt question marks about possible decline.

Weaknesses/Cons

Moustakas’ 55.6% swing rate was topped by only six qualified hitters last season, and Moustakas’ free-swinging ways resulted in both a career-low 5.7% walk rate and his highest strikeout rate (15.7%) since 2013. To be fair, that strikeout rate is actually more than respectable given how often Moustakas was swinging away, though it doesn’t seem sustainable given his only-okay career contact rates. While Moustakas was a good hitter in both 2015 and 2017, these are also his only two full seasons of above-average production, so any weak points (like an inflated swing rate) tend to stand out as red flags.

With just a .305 career OBP and a track record as a subpar baserunner, Moustakas is reliant on his power to prop up his offensive value. That’s not a bad skill to have in the recent era of big homer totals and a seemingly livelier baseball, though it does make Moustakas potentially susceptible to a drop in production should MLB explore a re-design of the balls.

As mentioned earlier, Moustakas had been a good defender for much of his career, though he was below-average in both DRS (minus-8) and UZR/150 (-3.6) in 2017. This is certainly a worry for teams wondering if Moustakas might not be the same after his ACL surgery, though it also isn’t uncommon for players to simply need some time to shake off the rust in the wake of such injuries. It’s worth noting that the Royals used Moustakas as a designated hitter in 17 games last season in an effort to keep him fresh.

Because Moustakas rejected the Royals’ qualifying offer, a new team would have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international bonus pool money in order to sign the third baseman. (You can find a full overview of the new QO signing rules here.)

Personal

Moustakas was born in Los Angeles and played his high school ball at local Chatsworth HS before the Royals selected him with the second overall pick of the 2007 draft. A highly-regarded prospect throughout his minor league career, Moustakas was a key member of the homegrown core of talent that came up together though Kansas City’s farm system and helped deliver the Royals a World Series title in 2015.

After over a decade with the franchise, Moustakas has naturally created strong bonds with the organization and within the Kansas City community, and is well-regarded as a teammate and clubhouse leader. Moustakas and wife Stephanie married in 2014 and they welcomed their first daughter in August 2016.

Market

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently made the argument that Todd Frazier, not Moustakas, may be the best third baseman on the market this winter, though since Moustakas is over two and a half years younger, he stands out as the more logical choice for a team looking for a long-term answer at the hot corner.

Moustakas’ relative youth might also make him attractive to a team that may not be planning to contend in 2018, but wants to lock down third base in preparation for a run in 2019 and beyond. Teams like the Phillies or Braves could fit this description if they respectively decide against going with Maikel Franco or waiting for prospect Austin Riley, though both teams seem like longshot candidates for Moustakas’ services. You can similarly squint and see how Moustakas could fit with the Red Sox, Indians, or Mets, though the latter two teams probably won’t have the payroll room and Boston likely wants to give Rafael Devers a longer look at third base before considering him as a first baseman.

The Giants and Cardinals are both currently tied up pursuing Giancarlo Stanton, though both teams could certainly use Moustakas’ power, with San Francisco in particular having a glaring hole at third base. A surprise team like the Orioles (if Manny Machado is moved to shortstop) or Twins (if Miguel Sano can’t handle regular third base duties after leg surgery) could also emerge. The Angels are currently focused on second basemen and plan to use Luis Valbuena in a third base platoon, so a return to his hometown doesn’t seem likely for Moustakas — unless the Halos miss out on Shohei Ohtani and thus change their DH/first base plans.

A return to Kansas City also can’t be entirely ruled out, as the Royals have some interest in re-signing at least one of Moustakas or Eric Hosmer. Conversely, the Royals also seem on the brink of a rebuild, so they could be better served in letting that duo (and Lorenzo Cain) leave in free agency and then collecting the draft picks due to them since Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cain all rejected qualifying offers.

Expected Contract

MLBTR ranked Moustakas sixth on our list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, with a predicted contract of five years and $85MM. That still seems like a reasonable prediction, even if the Stanton/Ohtani chases have been holding up the market for big-ticket free agents and an increased number of front offices are willing to play the waiting game. Moustakas is represented by Scott Boras, who is no stranger himself to keeping his clients available until an acceptably large contract can be found. Moustakas looks to be one of the prime beneficiaries once the Stanton and Ohtani markets are resolved, particularly given this winter’s thin third base market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Zack Cozart

By Mark Polishuk | November 29, 2017 at 4:23pm CDT

Zack Cozart’s huge 2017 season would seem like the perfect platform year as he enters free agency, though the veteran shortstop faces a complicated market and some inevitable questions about whether he can duplicate his breakout year.

Strengths/Pros

Defense has long been Cozart’s calling card. Since debuting in 2011, he ranks seventh in UZR/150 (+10.6) and 14th in Defensive Runs Saved (56) among all players in baseball with at least 6000 innings played. Among just shortstops in that same timeframe, Cozart is behind only the incomparable Andrelton Simmons in both categories and also behind Brandon Crawford in DRS. Cozart would provide a massive boost to any club looking to improve its run prevention.

Heading into last season, however, Cozart still hadn’t been able to move beyond his reputation as a glove-only player. He posted roughly average run-production numbers in 2015-16, though injuries and a major second-half fade in 2016 left doubts as to whether he could truly put it together at the plate. Those questions were answered in rather stunning fashion, as Cozart emerged as not just a solid bat, but one of baseball’s best overall hitters in 2017.

The numbers are startling — a .297/.385/.548 slash line over 507 PA, 24 homers, 80 runs scored, and almost as many walks (62) as strikeouts (78). Cozart’s 141 OPS+ was topped by just 15 players in the entire league, with an overall 5.0 fWAR surpassed by only 16 players. In fact, Cozart also has the highest 2017 fWAR total of the entire 2017-18 free agent class, counting both hitters and pitchers.

Cozart was no creation of the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, as he hit well both at home (.958 OPS) and on the road (.900 OPS). He also displayed a nice balance against all pitchers, crushing lefties to the tune of a 1.059 OPS while also hitting right-handed pitching hard (.896 OPS).

While he set new career bests in virtually every offensive category, most of Cozart’s advanced metrics are not too far removed from his normal career rates. His homer rate did spike, and his swinging-strike and overall swing rates both dropped significantly from his career norms. This increased plate discipline bodes well for Cozart’s ability to continue an above-average level of hitting, even if he may not again reach the peak of his 2017 production.

Weaknesses/Cons

While he still outperformed many hitters who received well more than 507 plate appearances, Cozart was again hampered by injuries, as quad injuries to both legs limited him to just 122 games. Between the quad problems, a torn knee ligament in 2015 and continued knee issues in 2016, Cozart has played in just 296 of the Reds’ 486 games over the last three seasons. This lack of durability and the fact that Cozart just turned 32 last August will give some teams pause before considering him for a pricey multi-year contract.

It’s worth noting that last season was one of Cozart’s lesser defensive years, as he delivered “only” a +6.2 UZR/150 and +2 DRS. Obviously these are still fine numbers, though it could hint that the years of leg problems are beginning to impact Cozart’s glovework. It certainly seems like the injuries could be hurting Cozart on the basepaths, given that Fangraphs’ BsR metric has indicated subpar baserunning totals in each of the two seasons since his knee surgery.

While Cozart would hardly be the first player to blossom later in his career, his continuing to be a top-15 hitter in 2018 would be even more of a surprise than his 2017 breakout. As per Statcast, Cozart’s expected weighted on-base average (.332) was well below his actual .399 wOBA thanks to his middling launch angle and exit velocity numbers — that 0.067 gap between the two categories was the second-largest of any player in baseball with at least 200 at-bats in 2017.

In fairness, Cozart has specifically tailored his swing and plate approach to account for his general lack of hard contact, and to focus on a level swing rather than aiming to put the ball in the air. This makes him an interesting outlier among modern hitters, though his power surge may have less to do with swing changes than it does (as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron recently observed) with the livelier baseballs reportedly used in MLB play over the last two years. If Cameron’s argument is correct, Cozart’s home run numbers could be in particular danger of regression if there are further alterations in how the balls are produced.

Cozart said back in April that he’d actually been feeling more comfortable hitting over two years ago due to increased aggressiveness at the plate, so between that and a minor swing tweak from last Spring Training, above-average production could be a new normal for Cozart. Still, his 2017 numbers were so far beyond his career averages that some amount of regression seems inevitable.

Personal

A native of Memphis, Tennessee, Cozart was a second-round pick for the Reds in the 2007 draft after three years of college ball at the University of Mississippi. His collegiate success earned him a spot on the United States’ gold medal-winning team in the 2006 World University Championship.

As one of the few long-term veterans on the rebuilding Reds, Cozart earned the nickname of “Coach” for his leadership role within the young clubhouse. Cozart was named as the Reds’ recipient of the 2016 Heart & Hustle Award by the MLB Players Alumni Association.

On a lighter note, the Cozart family welcomed a new pet into the fold this past summer, thanks to Joey Votto’s promise to buy his teammate a donkey if Cozart made the NL All-Star roster.

Market

While Cozart is far and away the top free agent shortstop available this winter, his biggest issue could be that the shortstop market itself isn’t very large. Most contenders or would-be contenders already have a shortstop in place, and several of the teams with a hole at the position (such as the Marlins or Padres) are in a rebuilding phase.

This would seem to at least create the possibility that Cozart remains in Cincinnati. The two sides shared some interest in working out a contract extension last summer, and while it would be somewhat unusual to see Cozart become a long-term piece for the club after two years of trade rumors, the Reds may have changed course after seeing him emerge as a hitter. The Reds could decide to go with Cozart and Scooter Gennett (another breakout player in 2017) in the middle infield, leaving Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera for backup or utility roles, or the team could shop one of those young and controllable talents for some much-needed pitching help.

Looking at other possible suitors, there are a lot of “maybe, if…” situations that could see a team make a play for Cozart. The Orioles or Royals could be fits if they aren’t respectively sold on Tim Beckham or Raul Mondesi Jr. as everyday shortstops (and if Kansas City doesn’t enter a rebuild itself). The Pirates or Rays would need to carve out payroll space, or the Cardinals could get into the mix if they sold high on Paul DeJong in another trade.

Perhaps the easier path to locating Cozart’s next team is to look for openings at second or third base. This could require a change of heart from Cozart, as he reportedly “feels strongly” about sticking at his usual position, though he might have no choice but to become more flexible given the lack of shortstop vacancies. Cozart’s reps at Excel Sports Management could pitch their client both as a regular starter at one position, or as an everyday contributor that could get 600 PA while receiving a couple of starts per week at shortstop, second and third. The Angels have already considered Cozart as a second baseman, and a position switch could also get teams like the Mets, Giants, Blue Jays, or Braves interested.

One plus for Cozart’s market is that the Reds declined to issue him a qualifying offer, so another team can sign him without having to surrender any draft pick compensation.

Expected Contract

MLBTR predicts Cozart will find a three-year, $42MM deal this winter, though this could be a pretty fluid projection depending on whether or not Cozart is open to a position change. While Cozart’s age could be an obstacle in finding a fourth guaranteed year, you’d think multiple teams would love to find space for a player coming off a five-win season somewhere around the infield, maybe even to the point of making room at shortstop.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Eric Hosmer

By Connor Byrne | November 26, 2017 at 9:13am CDT

At some point in the near future, the major league offseason is going to stop moving at the speed of Albert Pujols and become a compelling parade of transactions. When that happens, there’s a team that’s going to commit a lot of money to free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer, who turned in a well-timed career year in 2017. But the 28-year-old Hosmer’s major league tenure has also come with some unspectacular seasons, leading to plenty of wariness about what he’ll provide on a big-money deal. With the up-and-down Hosmer having racked up a litany of supporters and detractors since debuting with the Royals in 2011, the pact he secures in the coming weeks is sure to polarize.

Strengths/Pros

As mentioned, last season was one to remember for Hosmer, who slashed a personal-best .318/.385/.498 in 671 plate appearances, totaled exactly 25 home runs for the second straight year and posted career-high walk (9.8 percent) and isolated slugging (.179) marks. Only 24 players bettered Hosmer’s wRC+ (135), which placed him among the likes of Cody Bellinger (138), Justin Upton (137) and Anthony Rizzo (133). Hosmer’s hard-to-strike out ways contributed to his success, as he posted a K rate of just 15.5 percent that was right in line with his quality lifetime rate of 16.3. He also logged a swinging-strike rate below 10 percent (9.3) for the sixth time in seven seasons.

The most recent campaign wasn’t exactly an outlier for Hosmer, who was similarly effective in 2013 and during the Royals’ World Series-winning 2015 campaign. Hosmer accumulated between 3.2 and 4.1 fWAR in all three of those seasons, and that type of output over the next several years would make him well worth a significant payday. At his zenith, Hosmer has been a high-end offensive producer who makes an above-average amount of contact, a skill that’s all the more valuable in today’s strikeout-heavy game.

Not to be overlooked, durability has been a staple of Hosmer’s career. He was one of five players who didn’t miss a game in 2017, and with the exception of his abbreviated rookie year and a 131-game showing in 2014, he has appeared in at least 152 contests in every season.

Weaknesses/Cons

Hosmer’s famed agent, Scott Boras, is trying to sell his client as a $200MM-caliber player who has been ’‘Playoffville Federal Express.” And yet, he’s only a two-time playoff participant – one who has batted a so-so .276/.333/.398 in 138 postseason PAs. Now, it’s not Hosmer’s fault the Royals haven’t been consistently good, nor is his playoff production worth judging him over. The point is that Boras is likely to have trouble getting anyone to buy that Hosmer is the ultimate winner whose intangibles are worth just as much as his regular-season numbers.

And while Hosmer has been terrific in three full seasons, he has also turned in three clunkers. In those years – 2012, ’14 and ’16 – he was a league-average or worse hitter who notched fWARs ranging from zero to minus-1.7. The left-hander’s offensive inconsistency has come thanks in part to struggles versus southpaws, against whom he has batted .265/.310/.382, and a groundball-heavy batted-ball profile.

Hosmer has finished with one of the majors’ 25 highest grounder rates in all of his seasons, including top five in each of the previous two years, and has typically sat toward the bottom of the launch angle leaderboard, as FanGraphs’ Travis Sawchik wrote earlier this month. The method hardly led to disaster in 2017, evidenced by Hosmer’s production, but a .351 batting average on balls in play had something to do with his excellence. Hosmer’s career BABIP entering the season was .310 – which is about what you’d expect from someone who’s not a burner (nor is he slow, granted) – and his lifetime wRC+ prior to last year’s outburst was an underwhelming 107.

Hosmer was also heavily reliant on BABIP fortune in his other two best seasons, while his production cratered in the years when the number was closer to the league-average mark. The bottom line is that Hosmer neither walks enough nor hits for enough power to make him ultra-valuable when he’s not registering a high average. Both his lifetime walk rate (8.2 percent) and ISO (.155) are mediocre.

The fWAR metric also factors in defense, which is yet another divisive aspect of Hosmer’s game. He’s got plenty of defensive hardware, having won four Gold Gloves (including in 2017), but fielding metrics haven’t always looked kindly on his work. Overall, Hosmer has combined for minus-21 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-29 Ultimate Zone Rating. Still, it’s unclear how much those numbers will weigh on teams that are interested in signing Hosmer, who’s mostly known for his offense.

Personal

As he told Tim Kurkjian of ESPN in March, the Florida-born Hosmer attributes much of his success to his parents – a father, Mike, who was a longtime firefighter and a mother, Ileana, who escaped Fidel Castro-led Cuba as a 9-year-old and became a nurse. With their support, Hosmer developed into a star prospect whom the Royals selected third overall in the 2008 draft. To secure Hosmer, the Royals handed him a $6MM signing bonus. He has since earned nearly $31MM as a major leaguer, per Baseball-Reference.

Off the field, Hosmer has been very active in the Kansas City community, including with Big Brothers Big Sisters and the Greater Kansas City Firefighters Local 42 Community Assistance organization. He’s a two-time nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, which is given yearly to the major leaguer who best combines community involvement with sportsmanship and contributions to his team.

Market

Unfortunately for Hosmer, he’s not the only free agent first baseman coming off a nice 2017. Carlos Santana (who has a more consistent track record than Hosmer), Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso and Lucas Duda are also available in the wake of impressive seasons, while Jose Abreu will emerge as a sought-after target if the White Sox shop him. The amount of decent options available, not to mention the draft pick compensation attached to Hosmer, won’t positively affect his market. It also doesn’t help that the Mariners just acquired Ryon Healy, which seemingly took them out of the running for a first base upgrade, and the Yankees appear content with Greg Bird manning the position. But Boras has shown time and again that he’s capable of wizardry when it comes to selling his clients, and he’ll try to effectively pitch Hosmer to teams like the Red Sox, Cardinals, Angels and Rockies. If no one from that group ends up as Hosmer’s next employer, he could remain with the Royals, who haven’t given up on re-signing the franchise icon, or join a dark horse. The Padres would fall under the “dark horse” category, and they have discussed a Hosmer pursuit.

Expected contract

Last winter was not an ideal one for free agent first basemen – the high-profile duo of Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Trumbo settled for lesser contracts than expected, as did lower-tier types (Chris Carter and Mike Napoli, to name a couple). A repeat of that would mean a disappointing offseason for Hosmer, though he still has youth and Boras on his side. The general feeling, then, is that he’ll reel in a nine-figure contract in the coming months. MLBTR, which projects a six-year, $132MM guarantee, is on the bandwagon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Lorenzo Cain

By Connor Byrne | November 18, 2017 at 11:30pm CDT

Fresh off yet another strong season, longtime Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain ranks as one of the best free agents available in this year’s class.

Pros/Strengths

Since making his major league debut with the Brewers in 2010, Cain has often mixed average or better production at the plate with top-notch defense and quality baserunning, making him one of the game’s most valuable players at his position. Cain held his own in those three facets in 2017 and surpassed the 4.0 fWAR mark for the third time in the past four seasons. Dating back to 2014, his breakout offensive campaign, only 19 position players have logged a higher fWAR than Cain’s 17.9, which puts him in company with the likes of Freddie Freeman (18.1), Ian Kinsler (17.4) and Andrew McCutchen (16.8).

Defense is perhaps Cain’s greatest strength, evidenced by his lifetime DRS (73) and UZR (53.8) in center. According to those metrics, Cain wasn’t elite in 2017, though he still ranked in the top nine in the league among center fielders in both categories. He placed an even more impressive fifth among all outfielders in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.

On the offensive side, the righty-swinging Cain has been useful against pitchers of either handedness throughout his career. While his .303/.360/.474 line against southpaws easily trumps his .285/.335/.400 output versus righties, the latter has still been good enough for league-average production, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. All told, he has slashed a respectable .290/.342/.421 in 3,051 trips, including a .300/.363/.440 line across a personal-best 645 PAs in 2017. Cain managed to cut his K rate from 19.4 percent in 2016 to a meager 15.5 percent this past season, and has gone down on strikes just 18.6 percent of the time in his career.

Cain’s speed has certainly contributed to his solid offensive numbers, helping him run a lifetime .344 batting average on balls in play (including a .340 mark in 2017) and an infield hit rate of 9.9 percent (league average has hovered in the 6.5 percent range since his MLB debut). Unsurprisingly, the fleet-of-foot Cain finished toward the top of MLB last season in Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric (16th out of 451 qualifiers). Thanks primarily to his wheels, Cain stole 26 of 28 bases in 2017, ranking fifth in the majors in SB percentage (92.9) along the way. Successful base stealing has been the norm for Cain, who has swiped 127 of 152 bags (83.6 percent) during his career.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you’re looking for red flags here, age and injury questions jump to the fore immediately. Cain will turn 32 next April, which will make a long-term deal for him all the more risky, and although he played 155 games last year, he hasn’t been that durable. Cain spent time on the disabled list in 2012, ’13, ’14 and ’16, and last season was the only one to date in which he appeared in more than 140 games.

With Cain’s legs being so integral to his game, it’s certainly fair to wonder just how well he’ll age both offensively and defensively. Speed peaks early, after all, and that’s all the more concerning for a 30-something hitter who brings minimal power and middling patience to the table. Cain did hit 15 home runs in 2017, but his .140 ISO (.131 lifetime) fell well below the .171 league average.

Background

Cain, a Valdosta, Ga., native, became a professional when the Brewers chose him in the 17th round of the 2004 draft. He ultimately racked up just 158 PAs with Milwaukee before the team traded him, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress to the Royals for Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt in a December 2010 blockbuster. During his time in the majors, Cain, a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management, has earned approximately $21.76MM, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Off the field, Cain has been involved with the Variety Children’s Charity of Greater Kansas City. He and his wife, Jenny, have two sons.

Market

Unfortunately for Cain, most of the teams that received bottom-of-the-barrel production from their center fielders in 2017 don’t look like fits for a player who’s on the wrong side of 30. Nevertheless, it appears Cain will price himself out of KC, which will net a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft if he signs with another club for a guaranteed $50MM-plus or a selection after Comp Round B if he gets less. The Giants, Mets and Blue Jays are reportedly eyeing him, while the Mariners and Rangers have also come up as potential matches. Of those teams, the Giants and Mariners need a center fielder the most. The Mets, Blue Jays and Rangers have experienced CFers on hand in Juan Lagares, Kevin Pillar and Delino DeShields, respectively, though Cain is a better all-around player than each of those three.

Expected Contract

MLBTR forecasts a four-year, $70MM payday for Cain, who could push for a pact that rivals the half-decade-long, $82.5MM deal fellow center fielder Dexter Fowler signed with the Cardinals last winter. The fact that Cain’s a year older than Fowler will make a fifth year difficult to obtain, though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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