Jonathan Lucroy went into the offseason as the most prominent free agent catcher available, though with February just a day away, Lucroy is still looking for his next team. Yesterday’s news of an agreement between Alex Avila and the Diamondbacks took yet another potential landing spot off the board for Lucroy, leaving him with a rapidly narrowing list of options as Spring Training approaches.
While Lucroy is far from the only notable player whose market has stalled in this unprecedentedly-slow free agent season, his case is a particularly interesting one given the traditional lack of catching depth around baseball. There was certainly reason for teams to have concern about Lucroy heading into the winter, most notably his decline in power and framing ability and his massive slump in the first half of the 2017 season, yet you’d think that a player with Lucroy’s track record would’ve found some type of acceptable contract given how often teams require an upgrade behind the plate. It was just in 2016, remember, that Lucroy hit .292/.355/.500 with 24 homers over 544 plate appearances.
As it happened, however, Lucroy seems to have run into something of a perfect storm of circumstances. Beyond just his down 2017 season and the overall free agent deep freeze, the catching market was further crowded by the presence of J.T. Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal as trade candidates. Lucroy also happened to hit free agency in a winter when most of the contending teams were pretty set behind the plate. The D’Backs and Rockies both had holes at catcher, though Arizona went with Avila while Colorado signed Chris Iannetta despite some known interest in bringing Lucroy back to Coors Field.
Beyond just the contenders, a larger-than-usual number of teams in various stages of rebuilding phases haven’t had interest in spending significant dollars on a catcher (or, Lucroy may not have interest in finding himself traded at the deadline for the third consecutive year, which would be a distinct possibility if he joined a losing team on a pillow contract). The White Sox gave Welington Castillo a two-year deal, while other catchers have inked one-year Major League pacts or minor league contracts to serve in backup roles.
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Lucroy 20th on our Top 50 Free Agents list, projecting him for a two-year, $24MM deal. Finding even that modest contract seems unlikely at this point, though that could open the door for more teams to some looking at Lucroy as a potential bargain. Here are some of the candidates…
Mets: Lucroy reportedly drew some interest from the Amazins earlier this month, and they certainly fit the description of a team that could turn to Lucroy if (or now that) his price tag can fit into their limited budget. Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link) outlined some of the reasons for a Mets/Lucroy connection this morning, calling him “a perfect fit” given Travis d’Arnaud’s defensive limitations and the fact that d’Arnaud could either be retained as a non-costly backup or perhaps shopped himself in trade talks.
Astros: Aside from the Mets and Rockies, there has been very little buzz about Lucroy on the rumor mill this winter, to the point that this item from Jon Heyman back in November about Houston’s interest in Lucroy represents the only other team linked to the catcher this offseason. In the two and a half months since Heyman’s report, the Astros agreed to a $6.7MM arbitration-avoiding deal with Evan Gattis and plan to use him as their primary DH, and also signed Tim Federowicz as minor league depth to battle with Max Stassi for the backup job. A catcher/DH timeshare between Lucroy and starter Brian McCann would’ve been creative, though it doesn’t seem like the Astros still seem like plausible suitors.
Nationals: Unwilling to deal their very best prospects to Miami for Realmuto, the Nats could pivot away from a trade and instead sign Lucroy to supplant Matt Wieters as the everyday catcher. Lucroy could potentially be a open to a discount to play for a World Series contender like Washington, and even a two-year deal would make a him a nice bridge to Pedro Severino if the Nationals still see the youngster as their catcher of the future. One obstacle: after getting burned on the Wieters contract, could the Nats be wary about signing another veteran catcher showing signs of decline?
Athletics: In the wake of Bruce Maxwell’s arrest on aggravated assault and disorderly conduct charges, GM David Forst said that the A’s were still counting on Maxwell as their first-choice catcher heading into 2018. With Lucroy still on the market months later, however, the A’s might take advantage of an opportunity to land a potential star catcher at a lower price. As mentioned earlier, however, Lucroy might be hesitant to join a team that could again make him a trade deadline chip.
Orioles: Dan Duquette is no stranger to signing free agents still lingering on the market in February. Top prospect Chance Sisco is slated for regular duty next season, though since 2018 is clearly a go-for-broke season for the O’s with so many big names (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Buck Showalter, and Duquette himself) entering the last year of their contracts, the team might want more of a proven veteran presence behind the plate.
The field: You could stretch and make cases for such teams as the Red Sox, Indians, Brewers, Rangers, Cubs, or Angels as potential Lucroy suitors, though these teams range from “probably only in the event of another trade” or “major longshots.” Still, we could be in for a wild February of player movement given how much has yet to be decided within the free agent market. It isn’t out of the question that further trades could open up a spot for Lucroy on an unexpected roster, and an injury in Spring Training could also create a new suitor out of nowhere.
Where do you think Lucroy will be playing come Opening Day? (poll link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
if his price drops I can see the brewers brining him back
I could see that too honestly. MILW was where Lucroy had most of his success and I personally can’t even see him landing the 2yr/16M Avila got. If the brewers offered 3yr/15M I think it could get him. He might be willing to take a discount to come back where it all started.
But the Avila deal (details) isn’t known yet, or am I wrong?
Oh you’re right my bad. I read it in the article but went back and MLBTR projected Avila at 2yr/16M. I guess we will have to wait and see…(story of the offseason lol)
You’re not the only one.
When I read the article, I “read” those values as his deal, but then in the comments some people were guessing his deal, so I re-read the article, and saw that was the MLBTR projection 😛
Crap if he goes that low the pirates should jump on him and then trade Cervelli to the nats for salary relief. Lucroy is a better defender before his slump had a better bat,….
I mean i joked about it months ago, but if Lucroy is going for less than 12M/year the pirates should be all over him.. Yeah i know they won’t but wow……
I love Lucroy being a Brewers fan but I can’t see him getting 12M per. I think due to his age and rapid decline offensively. I think he will probably get more than 5M per of course but I think a good comp is Castillo. 2yr/15M. Lucroy is better defensively but castillo has a better stick
No.
Pina has proven he belongs. Bandy is a capable backup. And paying Luc $10m is NUTS when a payroll capped team like the Crew needs SP.
Seriously, who should be looking for a catcher with declining all around skills? He’ll be darn lucky to add to his retirement account at all at this point in his career.
His power numbers were way down, but even in his down year he still slashed .265/.345/.371 and had 46 walks to only 51 Ks. After the break he hit .276 with more walks than Ks. Offensively even with his declining skills he’s still better than a league average catcher. Defensively he’s slipped from one of the best pitch framers in the league, but he’s still a positive dWAR catcher while supplying offense. He’s not going to get a big contract as some thought before last season, but he most certainly won’t be “darn lucky” to have a job by Opening Day.
Dead last in ISO, Bottom 3 in SLG, Bottom 6 in wOBA, bottom 4 in wRC+, add to that another declining defensive and pitch framing year. The offense is below league average and the defense doesn’t hold up a limp bat anymore. He’ll have a job on opening day, but it might not be a ML one
You’re crazy if you think Lucroy won’t have a major league job. He’ll at least be part of a platoon situation at catcher. You probably don’t want him as a full time starter behind the plate but the guy can still hit. Worthwhile bounce back candidate.
Noting he did last year says he can still hit, below league average across the board. Who’s putting him at a platoon situation? He doesn’t bring much of anything to the table anymore as of right now. He’s 32 and has a ton of innings behind the plate. No one’s handing him anything this year
His power numbers (if he went back to Miller Park) I’m sure would go back to about what it was. Just sayin
NPB Yakult Swallows
I see no chance him heading to Boston. Vazquez has earned the job there, Leon is out of options, as is Swihart and one of those guys has to be moved as it is. Think Nationals are a prime spot for defensive whiz Sandy Leon reunion, who won’t cost all that much and hope he finds a tiny bit of the 2016 magic his bat had once again there.
No way they move Swihart he’s gonna play all nine positions plus do everyone’s taxes…
A regular Andy Dufresne, I reckon!
I don’t see the Nats signing him. They already have one problem “veteran” behind the plate. I cannot imagine Rizzo rolling the dice on another Weiters. I can, however, see Dan Duquette going dumpster diving and signing him.
Years ago, when Lucroy had a limited no trade contract, Washington was one of the teams to which he could veto a trade and the only NL team, if my memory serves me correctly. So what’s his problem with DC? I’ve lived here since 1989 and it’s wonderful. We don’t want him either (not now anyway).
Then again, didn’t the Redskins just get hustled again by Andy Reid on another veteran quarterback? History repeats itself. Maybe Rizzo will err again on another veteran catcher.
Do the angels have a catcher? Hell if not then go for it. They are trying to change their identity so they might as well go all in and sign another bad contract.
They’re likely going to use Lucroy’s former back-up, Martin Maldonado, behind the plate, which isn’t a bad choice. Maldonado was one of the best defensive catchers last year, but only batted 221, and had an OBP of just 276.
Angels have reigning gold glove winner Martin Maldonado
Angels have Martin Maldonaldo set as their primary catcher and very unlikely to want to spend the money on Lucroy unless they get a bargain on him.
They already signed another catcher this offseason giving 2.8 million on a 1 year deal to Rene Rivera to presumably be the backup catcher for Maldy. Rivera at least stands to be an upgrade over previous backup catcher options of Carlos Perez and Juan Graterol,
It would be pretty funny to see Luc end up as Maldonados backup on another team haha
The Jays have an opening for a catcher to catch 60+ games, and get some time at DH too.
Usually DHs are supposed to be good hitters.
Yep. And that’s why the Jays have time at DH available.
We’ll trade Morales to the free agent market for Lucroy
Rockies
Honestly, 2 Years 20mil with MIL makes a ton of sense. Designate Vogt and use Luc and Pina.
The Brewers need a pitcher more than a catcher.
Any chance the Twins would jump in on this? Castro is certainly serviceable but he is limited offensively.
Nah we’re set with Garver and Castro.
Give me the field here. I don’t think the Mets or athletics will shell out that kind of money for Lucroy, for different reasons. The Orioles need to add a rotation before they consider Lucroy, so I don’t see that right now. The nats are a good fit, but I think they get realmuto. And I don’t the the stros really need him, not for the money he would cost.
I said the A’s because I don’t think they will have to “shell out that type of money” in order to sign him.
I always thought it would be Arizona, but I guess not.
I’m going with Washington, but who knows
I think part of his problem is his attitude. He seemed to wear out his welcome in Texas. His body language was very poor when he struggled and he appeared lazy. The guy never seemed to develop strong relationships with the pitching staff or manager.
I’m not saying it’s the only reason he’s still available but I do believe he has somewhat of a poor reputation.
He also vetoed a trade to Cleveland a couple of years ago. Although it was his contractual right to do so, during that episode he came across as a me-before-team player. Whether true or not, or even fair, such an impression has legs, especially for a catcher who is, by tradition, supposed to be an on- and off-field team leader..
If that was the case he never would have signed an extension with the Brewers at the discounted price that he did. Also, he blocked the trade to Cleveland because they wanted to move him to 1B last year and he’s hoping to go to the hall as a catcher
I loved Lucs time in Milwaukee, but the Hall of Fame? Not a chance.
I’ll make no comment here about his HoF prospects, even immediately following his excellent 2014 season. But if Lucroy truly vetoed the trade to Cleveland because he wanted to “go to the hall as a catcher,” that pretty much cements the impression that he is a me-before-team player; that is, where he plays on the field is more important to him than winning. Again, that is assuming that what you wrote is true.
That might not be a show stopper of course, but it could help explain why organizations are taking a pass.
He didn’t want to move to 1B because it would hurt his FA value vs. being a 1B. That is all. Look at the 1B available with not clear job or took a paycut to play – Duda, Carter, Lind, Napoli, Morrison, Reynolds…. they have less earning potential then a Catcher with similar stats.
I said “hoping”. Back at the time his contract when it came up was going to be much more than it was at. He’d have to go back to his Brewers stats for 15 more years to be considered for the Hall.
How big of a bullet did Cleveland dodge? Wasn’t it Mejia for Lucroy?
One of best deals never made. Lucroy got to keep his tee time that October, Tribe took the Cubbies to extra innings in Game 7 without him in November of ’16. But most importantly Mejia will begin his MLB career in earnest at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario in ’18.
The deal was three for one – Mejia, Greg Allen and YC Chang.
His overall career numbers are better than Wieters when he was a FA. I would expect him to get 10-13 million per year for 2/3 years total, just not sure there is a clear need for him on any team.
I don’t know. Commentators are talking like it’s a usual offseason, saying this player or that can only get a bargain basement deal because, wow, it’s FEBRUARY and they’re still unsigned. But practically everyone is unsigned & practically every team still has the same holes that they had Nov. 1. With 30 teams trying to wait out the market instead of 5, they’ve simply made Feb. 15 the new Nov. 15.
I doubt the Mets would sign him. They already have Travis d’arnaud, Kevin Plawecki and Tomas Nido on the roster with a minor league deal signed with Jose Lobaton.
Well, neither d’Arnaud or Plawecki are meeting expectations (and Travis, at least, has been given a fair shot). Nido isn’t a real option, and Lobaton is (hopefully) org depth in Vegas. I’d love to sign Lucroy, have d’Arnaud as backup & PH, and have Plawecki & Lobaton in Vegas. Release Nido.
Why in the world would you release a 23 year old with promise and hold on to a 33 year old with a slash line of .170/.248/.277 last year and a career .218/.295/.324????
All of the unsigned free agents will head to the KBO.
A’s have to publicly appear confident in Maxwell’s situation, but it’s too much of a gamble to do nothing and head into spring training with the possibility of losing their #1 catcher for a significant portion of the season. The fact that Lucroy is not represented by Scott Boras May make him a viable option for OAK. I couldn’t see the Tribe having any interest in Lucroy since they already have 2 veteran catchers on the roster and Mejia knocking at the door.
Let’s also not forget that Lucroy blocked a trade to Cleveland when they really could have used him.
Wasn’t it because they wouldn’t guarantee option, as opposed to not actually wanting to play there?
Nah, they wouldn’t let him catch in 2017
They didn’t want a catcher in his free agent year to play his position. Hindsight is 20/20 because he sucked last year but that was a legitimate reason to block a deal.
The reason Lucroy blocked the deal to the Indians is because they wouldn’t guarantee him the starting catcher job the following year. He was afraid of being beaten out by Yan Gomes, who was injured at the time. No one wants a guy who doesn’t believe in himself. He clearly didn’t have confidence in his own abilities so why would the Indians, or any good team really, want him on their team?
He will out of MLB within 2 years. They figured him out.
Should add goes to japan.
I voted.
If Lucroy wants to go to DC he should switch to Boras for representation
Boras for the most part only signs high profile players
There a few regular guys but nothing that has declined as much as him.
Derek Norris 2.0
I wonder if he’d take a 1yr deal and try again next year? He cratered at the plate, so his value took a pretty good hit. I doubt a team gives him $10m+ AAV on a multi-year deal.
Nationals just seem like such a logical fit for him on a short-term deal. I was interested in the Jays taking a look at him as a possible tandem with Martin, but I’m getting the impression that they’re going to be focused on pitching from here on out.
I can’t imagine Russell Martin and Jonathan Lucroy being alright with being a catching tandem. Can’t imagine the jays wanting to spend that much at the catching position either.
The Jays may not want to spend that much money at the catching position but they need too. Maile won’t get it done and Martin can only catch 100 games a year now.
that is they want to “compete”. Otherwise rebuild.
I remember a few years ago when people were trying to say that he was better than Posey.
The difference between the NL Central and the nl west is the central especially Miller Park is a launch pad. Nl west minus coors and az isn’t… especially sf… that park is more of a gap to gap place. Buster uses the park and puts the ball in ball.
That’s just offense. Defense, buster has always been superior. Next runner up is the up and coming hedges.
He’ll be a Met by February 11
Long Island Ducks.
I’m really confused on the topic of Lucroy’s decline.
Good player then got injured in 2015. I’m assuming that was the primary reason for his down year there.
2016, came back and did okay with a .841 OPS In MIL an .885 to finish off in TEX.
2017 he did extremely poor with a .635 OPS and fairly bad bad defensively from what i hear? but finished the season strong in COL with a .865.
So really about a half season horrible slump in the AL and it is a rapid decline? Too me seems like a prime bounce back candidate. (just on that and not actually seeing him play at all)
From those who have seen him play, can you say why? Or is this mostly a knee jerk reaction?
im trying to figure out how a catchers pitch framing ability rapidly declines from one season to the next.
is that reality, or just dealing with different pitchers due ot changing teams, or the way framing ability is calculated?
I think this is more of a fluke of working with different pitcher or pitchers who can’t even get it close to the zone to be framed :-D.
BUT maybe an expert pitch framing calculator can give us insight.
He wen’t from one of the best in the league in 2014 and has been quickly declining every year since and was one of the worst in the league last year, there was no dramatic one year decline it’s been happening over the course of 4 years
He broke his toe early in 2015, not a significant injury and one you see players get and come back from fine every year. He still racked up a 100+ games of poor offense and his defense declined.
2016 he bounced back indeed but his defense continued to decline, especially his framing.
2017 was indeed a terrible year for him offensively , his defense continued to tank and his framing was near the worst in the league.
He’s a 32 year old catcher who has been declining defensively for the last four years and has never been all that consistent with the bat (he’s very much an every other year player [2010,2012, 2014, 2016=114OPS+ while 2011, 2013,2015,2017=96OPS+).
He couldn’t even hit bombs at coors
The nationals,Mets, or any other that lucroy could go to should give him a weiters type deal.
*team
Some fans are just so harsh. This time last year, Lucroy was (rightfully) thought of as a top 3 catcher in the game. He had a bad year, no denying this, but now some people are claiming he is done. He is still a top 10 catcher, just a top 10 catcher coming off a rough year. I would LOVE it if he resigned with the Rockies because Iannetta is definitely not an upgrade.
BOLD Prediction: Marlins
Safer prediction: Mets
This time last year he would have been looking at a 4-5 yr deal. Teams should have no problem gambling 2 years at a low aav(as suggested above) to see if he can approach what we’re use to seeing from him not only with the bat but also his pitch framing. Would love to see the BoSox take a shot at him and slot him in the 7 or 8 hole.
Wish the braves would go get him. Everyone says we don’t need him, but he’s an upgrade at that position in my opinion. Grab him and trade one of our current catchers to another team as a backup. Cause that’s basically what they r. Two backups
Do you think Wellington’s 2 year contract with WSox is only comp for his market value?
Makes a bit of sense for the Padres to pick him up., he’d be good for a young pitching staff. But whoever signs him better do it quick, you got two weeks will P&C report and you want to build some rapport
Padres are pretty set on using Hedges as the main catcher.
Probably for the best I guess. They aren’t going anywhere any time soon, they can wait for him to develop.
Feel like there are more teams that would take him at the right price than teams that wouldn’t.
Astros are still very much in play imo. They can shop McCann or Gattis. Lucroy is an upgrade either way.
Would be surprisingly if his price comes down enough for the Mets lol.
So, if you are Mets, do you prefer Lucroy and Flores/Reyes or d’Arnaugh and one of Walker/Frazier/Nunez?
For me, if it’s Nunez that’s the no brainer- lineup needs a legitimate lead off threat and given Mets injury history a guy who can play all over is extra valuable.
But, if it is one of the other two then I may go the Lucroy route.
I really wish that the Cardinals would get “in the hunt” for Jonathan. I believe that he and Yadi would make a perfect tandem!