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Archives for September 2018

Brandon Belt Likely Done For The Season, Could Require Knee Surgery

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt is headed for another MRI on his right knee and is unlikely to return in 2018, manager Bruce Bochy announced to reporters (Twitter link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). It’s likely that Belt will ultimately require surgery to repair the knee.

Belt, 30, becomes the latest notable Giants player to go down with a season-ending injury, joining Johnny Cueto, Buster Posey, Steven Duggar and Jeff Samardzija in that onerous distinction. He’s faded badly at the plate in recent months after a torrid start to the season that saw him mash at a torrid .307/.403/.547 pace through June 1 before landing on the disabled list to undergo an appendectomy. He homered in his second game back from that DL trip but has struggled immensely overall, turning in a miserable .203/.283/.290 slash through 230 plate appearances.

It’s a disappointing finish to what looked to be a potential breakout campaign for Belt just a few months ago. While he’s long been a decidedly above-average (and at times, even great) hitter, the first two months of Belt’s season were elite (156 wRC+ — which is to say that his overall line was 56 percent better than that of a league-average hitter after being adjusted for home park and league).

Belt is in the second season of a five-year extension worth more than $70MM guaranteed, and he’ll earn $16MM in each of the next three seasons. He’s managed just 216 games over the first two seasons of that contract, as he’s been limited by a pair of concussions in addition to his hyper-extended knee and appendectomy.

Cubs Select Allen Webster, Transfer Brandon Morrow To 60-Day DL

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The Cubs have selected the contract of right-hander Allen Webster and moved Brandon Morrow to the 60-day disabled list to open a roster spot, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Chicago had announced yesterday that Morrow would not return in 2018.

Now 28 years of age, Webster once rated as one of the game’s top overall prospects but has never lived up to that considerable potential. The journeyman righty has spent time in the Majors with the Red Sox and Diamondbacks and has also appeared in the upper minors with the Dodgers, Rangers and Cubs. Beyond all that, he spent the 2016 season pitching for the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization, albeit with generally unfavorable results.

Webster hasn’t been in the Majors since 2015 but has been excellent since debuting for the organization this summer, in an admittedly tiny sample of work. Through 17 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.65 ERA with an outstanding 24-to-3 K/BB ratio, one homer allowed and a ground-ball rate near 60 percent.

Silver Linings: American League Central

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It’s often difficult to feel positive about a team when it is finishing out a season that won’t end in meaningful games, let alone postseason play. Still, there are silver linings to be found in even the worst campaigns. We’ll tick through every division in the coming days to identify the brightest spots for the non-competitive organizations.

First up is the division most in need of a pick-me-up: the American League Central. With the Indians cruising to a title, the four remaining clubs are all looking ahead to next year. Here’s each of those organizations’ most promising development from the ’18 campaign (with link to current depth chart):

Royals: The Middle Infield

Entering the year, the K.C. organization had a middling outlook up the middle on the dirt. Whit Merrifield had turned in a late-twenties breakout, sure, but could he keep it up? Meanwhile veteran Alcides Escobar was brought back to keep things patched up at short.

As it turns out, though, Merrifield has more than doubled down on his 2017 effort. Entering play today, he was — *checks* — **double-checks** — 25th (!) among all position-players by measure of fWAR. With ample cheap control remaining, he’s a heck of an asset, even if he is already 29 years of age.

Shortstop, though, remained an evident conundrum for much of the year. Enter (okay, re-enter) Adalberto Mondesi. The 23-year-old, whose first MLB action improbably came in the 2015 World Series, is presently carrying a .284/.311/.467 slash with nine home runs and 25 steals in 241 plate appearances. He’s grading as an elite baserunner and high-quality defender at short, making him a potential core piece.

White Sox: Eloy On The Cusp

With apologies to Daniel Palka, Omar Narvaez, and Matt Davidson — nice seasons, all — the most notable development this year for the South Siders has occurred in their minor-league system. Many fans would like to see Eloy Jimenez in the majors right now, finishing off his spectacular campaign in style. Instead, they’ll have to wait until early 2019, though that also means their favorite club will control him for one more precious season.

Jimenez, 21, made good on his top-prospect billing, turning in a monster .337/.384/.577 campaign in 456 plate appearances split evenly between the organization’s top two affiliates. That makes him one of the truly elite prospects in baseball and, quite possibly, the much-needed superstar of the future.

Of course, there was a real shot that this nod would have gone to the pitching staff, but the hurlers just came up short. Michael Kopech’s otherwise promising campaign ended in agony, with Tommy John surgery. Reynaldo Lopez has settled in as a solid, but hardly dominant starter. And while Carlos Rodon’s return has been excellent in terms of results, his peripherals tell quite a different story.

Tigers: Landing Mize

No kidding, having the first pick the draft is a good thing. But it’s not every year — far from it — that a player like Casey Mize is there to be taken. Not only was Mize considered the top talent, he was also likely the most advanced player on the board.

Shades of Stephen Strasburg? The Tigers have reason to hope. He’s already sitting at the #20 spot on MLB.com’s ranking of the top prospects in baseball, to cite but one account of the impact to a Tigers system that has had its share of questions in recent years. Of course, Mize is also now but one of several intriguing young hurlers percolating up toward the majors through Detroit’s minor league ranks.

In a way, though, this is not quite the news you’d hope for. The Tigers’ MLB roster has obviously had its share of good news, including a strong year from Matt Boyd; continued success from Nicholas Castellanos (though he’s just one year from free agency); and the emergence of Niko Goodrum as a useful MLB asset. However, there hasn’t been much else to write home about otherwise at the major-league level. And a concerning season from Michael Fulmer and tepid output from Jeimer Candelario leave some cause for pessimism.

Twins: Encouraging Arms

In numerous ways, 2018 was quite a disappointment for a Minnesota organization that had designs on contention. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton not only failed to improve, but ended up on optional assignment. The team’s slate of short-term veteran signing fell way shy of delivering the anticipated value. Its leading hitter, Eduardo Escobar, was traded away months ago.

But there was one area where things went just about as well as might have been hoped: the team’s group of controllable MLB rotation pieces. Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and Jake Odorizzi have all been worth at least 2.5 fWAR and look to be quality values heading into 2019. Michael Pineda fully rehabbed from Tommy John surgery before being felled by a meniscus tear, so there’s good reason to think he’ll be at full health. And though well-regarded prospect Stephen Gonsalves struggled badly in brief MLB action, he just turned in a strong outing today and was rather dominant at Triple-A, working to a 2.76 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9 (but only 5.7 hits per nine) in 120 2/3 innings. 23-year-old Fernando Romero, a highly regarded young right-hander, gave the team some reason for optimism as well, though his overall numbers are dragged down by one particularly catastrophic start (eight runs in 1 2/3 innings).

It wasn’t all roses in the forward-looking portion of the pitching staff. Ervin Santana’s option doesn’t seem desirable. More worryingly, Adalberto Mejia was cut short due to injury in an otherwise promising season. And it’s not as if the showing from the above-noted hurlers was particularly exciting. More might have been hoped for from Berrios and Odorizzi.

That said, it’s perhaps too easy to dismiss this kind of affordable productivity. Setting a sturdy baseline from the rotation is a notable development, particularly for an organization that must operate within spending limitations.

Of course, finding star-level players is still of greater importance. And there were notable developments there for Minny. While the outlook on Sano and Buxton is nowhere near as promising as it once was, both still have future value. And there’s now a pair of elite prospects rising through the system. Both Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff both landed among the twenty top minor-league performers in 2018 and are graded among the top twenty prospects in the game (see, e.g., “The Board” at Fangraphs). They’d have represented a worthy recipient of my “silver lining” label, to be sure, but neither is expected to be ready until 2020, so I’m taking the immediate value in the staff.

Michael Kopech Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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SEPTEMBER 19: As expected, Kopech has undergone the procedure. He’s not expected back until the start of camp in 2020, per the club.

SEPTEMBER 7: White Sox righty Michael Kopech has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament, the team announced to reporters. Tommy John surgery has been recommended for the highly regarded young hurler.

This news represents a major blow to a rebuilding organization that had hoped to build momentum entering the 2019 campaign. Kopech, 22, had only just arrived in the majors — bringing the promise of an exciting end to a largely forgettable 2018 campaign.

While the long-term hope will remain that Kopech can become a front-of-the-rotation anchor, it’ll have to wait until 2020. Odds are, he’ll be sidelined for all of the 2019 campaign while recovering. The silver lining for the young hurler — and the twist of the dagger for the organization — is that he’ll accrue MLB service time all the while.

Kopech entered the season as one of the game’s brightest pitching prospects, and largely delivered on the hype in his first full season at Triple-A. He turned in 126 1/3 innings of 3.70 ERA ball, with 12.1 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9, before receiving his first call-up to the majors.

Upon his promotion, Kopech turned in three eye-opening outings in the majors to close out the month of August. Though he was limited to just 11 total frames owing to the whims of Mother Nature, the youngster allowed just a single earned run while racking up nine strikeouts against one walk.

Unfortunately, the flamethrower exhibited a velocity decline in his most recent outing, an 82-pitch dud in which he allowed seven earned runs on nine hits (including four long balls) in just 3 1/3 innings. It seems that something wasn’t quite right, clearly, as the organization ordered testing that identified the newly revealed injury.

To this point, the South Siders’ efforts to build a new core have run into the realities of exposing young players to the majors. There’s still plenty of promise, but the aggregate output is a 56-84 record. And strides for some players have occurred alongside struggles for others — especially in the rotation.

When the Sox traded away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in the 2016-17 offseason, kicking the club’s rebuild into top gear, the result was a farm system that many considered one of the best in the sport. In addition to delivering top position playing prospect Yoan Moncada, that pair of swaps delivered a haul of new pitching talent.

There has been promise along the way for the hurlers, with Kopech shining as one of the brighter lights. Prospect Dane Dunning has as well, though he has been on ice since late June owing to a balky elbow. Those pitchers that have already spent significant time in the majors, though, haven’t yet delivered on their promise.

True, southpaw Carlos Rodon has put together nearly a hundred frames of 2.89 ERA ball this year after returning from his own injury problems. But even that effort has come with questions, as Rodon’s breakout in the results department has come in spite of peripheral declines. A similar early showing from Reynaldo Lopez has now corrected over the course of the full season. Other young pitchers — Lucas Giolito, Dylan Covey, Carson Fulmer — have continued to run into troubles in the majors.

At this point, the outlook of the 2019 rotation is at best uncertain. Without Kopech, the unit appears decidedly less exciting. Exactly how that’ll impact the team’s offseason plans remains to be seen, but there’s obviously potentially another hole to be filled. Of course, there’s also less cause for the organization to believe it can move into a truly competitive stance.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tigers, Athletics Complete Mike Fiers Trade

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The Tigers and Athletics have announced the completion of the mid-season trade that sent starter Mike Fiers to Oakland. Righty Logan Shore will head to the Tigers in the deal, making him the second player to be named later.

About one month back, the sides announced the first PTBNL: young righty Nolan Blackwood. In the meantime, Fiers has continued mostly to pile up good innings for the A’s.

Shore, a 2016 second-rounder, is a rather notable prospect to be on the move. The 23-year-old turned in four strong outings at the High-A level before bumping up to Double-A. He has struggled to a 5.50 ERA there in 13 starts, but still seems to be a quality asset to add to the Detroit system. He’s just over two years removed from being selected in the second round of the 2016 draft and, in 2017, turned in a 3.68 ERA with an exceptional 87-to-16 K/BB ratio in 80 2/3 innings of work.

At last look, Shore sat in the No. 14 spot on the MLB.com ranking of the A’s farm. He’s known more for “pitchability than stuff,” as that outlet puts it, so he’s valued more for his floor than his ceiling. Of course, even a perceived floor requires health, and that’s one area that has been a problem in Shore’s brief time as a professional; he was slowed by a lat issue earlier this season and had a pair of trips to the disabled list last year in an otherwise encouraging campaign.

As for Fiers, the 33-year-old has been quite a boon for an otherwise injury-ravaged Athletics pitching staff. He’s taken the mound eight times since donning the green and gold, pitching to a sterling 3.09 ERA with 44 punchouts against just 10 walks in 43 2/3 innings of work. He’s still been far too homer-prone in that time (10 homers allowed), but Fiers has generally been one of Oakland’s most effective starters since joining the team. Oakland can control him through the 2019 season via arbitration.

Matt Bush (Elbow) & Austin Bibens-Dirkx (Knee) Undergo Surgery

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The Rangers announced today that two of their pitchers have undergone surgery, as MLB.com’s TR Sullivan was among those to tweet. Reliever Matt Bush had a procedure to address a partial UCL tear, while fellow righty Austin Bibens-Dirkx received work to his knee, the details of which remain to be provided.

Clearly, the news is especially concerning with regard to Bush, who had already been ruled out for the remainder of the season. It’s not clear whether he experienced a more recent change in conditions that precipitated the procedure or whether it was simply called for after his rehab efforts were halted.

Though he did not require Tommy John surgery, the Texas organization anticipates going without Bush for at least half of the 2019 season. It’s not certain just what was performed, though it could be that he received “primary repair” surgery.

Things had not gone well for Bush when he was on the mound this year. The 32-year-old posted a 4.70 ERA in his 23 innings, with just 7.4 K/9 against 5.5 BB/9, with declines in his fastball velocity and swinging-strike rate.

As for Bibens-Dirkx, he had helped the Rangers fill innings over the course of the season after re-signing on a minors deal in the winter. He was bumped from the rotation after an abysmal outing in mid-July but has been an occasional relief presence since that time. All told, Bibens-Dirkx carries a 6.20 ERA in 45 innings on the season, with 33 strikeouts against 14 walks.

Rays Recall Austin Meadows

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The Rays have recalled young outfielder Austin Meadows to the MLB roster, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported. Also joining the club are righties Austin Pruitt and Chih-Wei Hu as well as southpaw Hoby Milner.

Among these new additions to the active roster, the 23-year-old Meadows is the most interesting. That’s due not only to his top-prospect status and his recent acquisition — in a swap that also brought Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz to Tampa Bay in exchange for Chris Archer — but also his strong offensive output this season.

Before the swap, of course, Meadows had impressed in a 165-plate appearance debut in the majors. Though his success was predicated in no small part upon a .345 BABIP, it was hard not to like the .292/.327/.468 line (with five homers and four steals) he produced against major-league pitching.

At the same time, though, Meadows had continued his less-than-stirring work at the highest level of the minors, so it was fair to wonder whether that was simply a mirage. The longtime top-100 prospect had hovered in the .700 OPS range in three attempts at Triple-A Indianapolis.

Since arriving in the Rays organization, however, Meadows has thrived. It’s only a 26-game sample, but he laid waste to the International League pitching over 106 plate appearances, slashing .344/.396/.771 with ten home runs.

Whether or not that showing ought to elevate expectations for Meadows is perhaps debatable, but it certainly increase the excitement of his promotion. Of course, he’s not likely to receive a long look just yet. But with Carlos Gomez set to hit the open market at season’s end, it’s possible that Meadows could be in the mix to crack the roster as part of the corner outfield rotation in 2019.

As ever, service-time considerations must be noted as well. Meadows was on the Pittsburgh active roster for 59 days already and will now add another dozen to his tally. That means he could well top a full year of MLB service next season even if he’s held down to open the year.

 

NL Notes: Pence, Tebow, Wheeler, Ryu

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It seems Giants outfielder Hunter Pence has yet to fully resolve his future. As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, the veteran suggests he’s focused on appreciating the remainder of the 2018 season — the final campaign under his current contract. The 35-year-old indicates that he’s not yet sure of his outlook for 2019, but does tell Schulman that he “want[s] to play next year.” It certainly has not been Pence’s finest effort on the field, however, putting his future in doubt even if he prefers to give it another go. After struggling last year, Pence has fallen even further. Through 213 plate appearances, he owns only a .215/.254/.315 slash with three home runs. With his rough 2017 as a backdrop, it’s questionable at best that he’ll receive MLB offers this coming offseason.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Mets anticipate that Tim Tebow will be back for a third season with the organization in 2019, as Tim Healey of Newsday reports. The former NFL QB has been sidelined since the middle of the summer owing to a broken hamate bone, but otherwise ended things on a high note with a strong run at the plate. Of course, his overall line — .273/.336/.399 with six home runs and 103 strikeouts in 298 plate appearances — was not overly impressive for a 31-year-old corner outfielder at Double-A. But it’s actually quite the accomplishment given how things appeared at the outset of the experiment, and it’ll be interesting to see how Tebow performs next year at Triple-A. “I’d be surprised if he didn’t want to continue,” said assistant GM John Ricco.
  • Mets righty Zack Wheeler has had an incredibly exciting bounceback campaign, so much so that it may need to end early due to his accumulation of innings. As Aaron Bracy of the Associated Press writes (via Newsday), the club is considering putting Wheeler on ice the rest of the way rather than having him take back to the mound. Manager Mickey Callaway says it’s a matter of the Mets “want[ing] to make sure we’re taking care of the player.” Wheeler is now 99 innings past the 86 1/3 he compiled in 2017, a season in which he was still not at full health. With nothing left for Wheeler to prove or for the team to accomplish in the 2018 season, it stands to reason that caution is warranted. Wheeler, after all, now looks to be a key piece — or trade asset — after working to a 3.31 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.
  • The Dodgers have their own pitching comeback tale of sorts, as southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu has been impressive when he has been available. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, the veteran hurler says he’s not taking anything for granted after several injury-riddled campaigns. Indeed, even after making 24 starts last year, he was unable to participate in the postseason. Through 70 1/3 frames over 13 outings in 2018, however, the lefty owns an excellent 2.18 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. He just throttled the Rockies in a key divisional tilt and now looks to be an important part of the late-season L.A. pitching mix. It’s opportune timing both for the team and the player. Ryu is slated to enter free agency this winter, where he’ll be a risky but intriguing option.

10 Relievers Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries

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We’ve already done this for position players and starters, so let’s check in on the relief arms. In this context, as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz teaches, we’re looking for innings, ERA, and saves or (to a lesser extent) holds. Swartz also frequently cites strikeouts as a factor in analyzing comparables.

Now, to be sure, the “opener” concept and/or other contemporary baseball phenomena may one day lead to some changes in how reliever salaries are determined. For now, though, the traditional numbers still play in the arbitration process. Here are ten relievers who can anticipate nice first-time arb salaries after turning in strong 2018 showings.

  • Matt Barnes, Red Sox: Though he doesn’t own an overly dominant ERA (3.39), Barnes has made the most of his 58 1/3 frames for purposes of arbitration-worthy counting stats. He has not only recorded an impressive (and quite surprising) 92 strikeouts, but has picked up 25 holds while serving in a set-up capacity for the league’s best regular season team.
  • Carl Edwards Jr., Cubs (possible Super Two): With 1.134 years of service, Edwards is in the grey area for S2 eligibility, but well within the plausible zone to make it. He’s also one of the best candidates on this list. Despite some trouble with consistency, and an unhealthy volume of walks, Edwards has racked up 21 holds and 64 strikeouts over 49 innings of 2.39 ERA pitching.
  • Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: Bradley hasn’t followed up on his dominating 2017 season, but he was still leaned on by the Arizona ballclub in the late innings. He has accumulated 66 2/3 frames of 3.65 ERA ball while recording a league-leading 33 holds.
  • Taylor Rogers, Twins (likely Super Two): It has been a breakout campaign for Rogers, who is through 64 1/3 innings with a nice 2.80 ERA. Though he has only picked up a pair of saves, he has 16 holds and has retired 72 opposing batters on strikes.
  • Scott Oberg, Rockies: Through 54 frames this year, Oberg carries a sparkling 2.17 ERA. All that despite pitching much of the time at Coors Field. With solid tallies of 13 holds and 50 strikeouts also bolstering his case, it has been a strong year all things considered.
  • Chaz Roe, Rays: True, his 3.54 ERA in 48 1/3 innings doesn’t jump off the page. But Roe has picked up 27 holds, the seventh highest tally in baseball this year.
  • Ryan Tepera, Blue Jays: He’s now up to seven saves and 16 holds, so Tepera has some useful numbers to dangle before a panel if his case makes it to a hearing. Otherwise, he carries a pedestrian 3.84 ERA in 61 innings.
  • Mychal Givens, Orioles: True, he’s only carrying a 4.39 ERA. But Givens is likely to exceed seventy innings and has also accumulated 7 saves and 15 holds, so he’ll still be paid.
  • Heath Hembree, Red Sox: With a 4.15 ERA in 56 1/3 innings, Hembree doesn’t seem like much of a candidate. But he has recorded 73 strikeouts and is one of only 22 pitchers to have reached twenty holds, so he’ll likely be another beneficiary of some of the ballclub’s overall success.
  • Kyle Barraclough, Marlins: He has failed to capitalize on the opportunity to rack up a big number of saves, losing his closing job and sitting on 53 innings of 4.42 ERA ball. But the hard-throwing hurler has still reached double-digit saves (10) and picked up seven holds as well.
  • Honorable Mention: Edwin Diaz had 1.121 days of service entering the season, giving him a very outside chance at Super Two eligibility. That seems unlikely, but if he does qualify, his monster season will result in a handsome reward. Ryan Buchter of the A’s has a case with 15 holds and a 3.12 ERA, but the southpaw has only thrown 34 2/3 innings. Dodgers righty Erik Goeddell has a sub-3.00 ERA, but is also under forty frames and hasn’t worked the late innings. And though he has 11 saves, Phillies reliever Hector Neris carries an ugly 5.52 ERA in just 44 frames.

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