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Archives for November 2018

Latest On Zack Greinke

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For all the ongoing talk about Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and the Indians’ trio of starters, Zack Greinke remains one of the more intriguing trade candidates on the market. Zach Buchanan of The Athletic takes an intriguing look at the dilemma the D-backs face in a potential Greinke trade in his latest column, while also revealing the 15 teams on Greinke’s no-trade list.

Per Buchanan, Greinke can block deals to the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Twins, Tigers, Angels, Athletics, Phillies, Cardinals, Reds, Giants, Rockies, Dodgers and Padres. Obviously, that list includes several clubs who could make sense a viable trade partner for the D-backs, although Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest weekly notes column that neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees view Greinke as a fit for their clubs. Still, Greinke has already been connected to the Cardinals and it’s certainly possible to imagine interest from a few other organizations that appear on the list. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Reds have checked in on Greinke, though John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 pulls no punches in rejecting that rumor (Twitter link).

Greinke, 35, has three years and $104.5MM remaining on his contract between his guaranteed salaries and a trio of $3MM payouts on an $18MM signing bonus that was spread out over the life of his six-year, $206.5MM deal. However, Buchanan reports within his column that the signing bonus payouts will remain the D-backs’ responsibility even in the event of a trade. Greinke’s contract does come with a $2MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade, which seemingly falls on the acquiring club, meaning that any team interest in trading for him would be taking on a total of $97.5MM over three seasons (minus any cash the D-backs include to grease the wheels on a swap).

That’s still a major sum for a new team to pay, given Greinke’s age, but the former Cy Young winner has been excellent for Arizona across the past two seasons. The veteran righty crossed the 200-inning threshold in both 2017 and 2018 while posting near-identical 3.20 and 3.21 ERAs. He’s maintained his elite control, still misses bats at an above-average rate and still possesses average or better ground-ball tendencies, as well.

Nationals Acquire Yan Gomes

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The Nationals have officially swung a deal with the Indians to bring in catcher Yan Gomes. Outfielder Daniel Johnson, righty Jefry Rodriguez, and a player to be named later will go to Cleveland in the swap.

With this swap in the books, the Nats have done all their work behind the dish at the very outset of the offseason. The organization already brought back old friend Kurt Suzuki, who’ll presumably share time with Gomes. The former is earning $10MM over two years, while the latter will take home a $7MM salary in 2019 before a pair of club options ($9MM and $11MM, each with $1MM buyouts).

The Gomes contract initially looked to be a coup for the Indians club, then took on a sour note as his offensive numbers plummeted. Last year, though, the 31-year-old bounced back with a strong campaign in which he slashed .266/.313/.449 and hit 16 long balls over 435 plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder what to expect moving forward. Gomes has good power for a catcher, but doesn’t typically draw many walks. Accordingly, his OBP has bounced up and down with his batting average on balls in play. Gomes did turn in a personal-best 38.7% hard-hit rate (by measure of Statcast) along with a .322 xwOBA that nearly matched his .326 wOBA in 2018, but odds are the Nats have tempered expectations on the offensive side.

Even if he falls back somewhat with the bat, though, Gomes is also regarded as a high-quality defender. Baseball Prospectus has generally graded him as a strong positive in all the measurable areas — framing, throwing, blocking. That presents an opposing skillset from that currently possessed by Suzuki, who has turned himself into an excellent hitter but doesn’t defend with such aplomb. Presumably, the Nats will utilize both according to need, while hoping the timeshare keeps them fresh, though obviously in-game situational substitutions won’t really be possible unless the club somehow finagles a way to carry a third catcher.

Regardless of how one looks at it, the two players combine to make a strong upgrade behind the dish for the Nats, who had relied upon Matt Wieters, Pedro Severino, and Spencer Kieboom over the past two seasons. The latter two players remain in the organization, though it stands to reason that one (likely the out-of-options Severino) will be jettisoned at some point, particularly with Raudy Read also taking a 40-man spot.

The Indians surely would have a stronger roster with Gomes on it. But they’re also willing to roll the dice a bit. The need for some budgetary flexibility is obviously a big part of the picture, but the organization obviously also believes in some rising players. In this case, Roberto Perez will presumptively take the bulk of the action behind the dish, with newcomer Eric Haase joining him after spending the past three seasons in the upper minors — where he has shown plenty of power but also a questionable on-base profile.

Certainly, the prospect return is a factor here as well. Johnson, a fifth-round pick in 2016, has an intriguing blend of power and speed, making him a top-ten organizational prospect for the Nats. The 23-year-old most recently scuffled a bit at Double-A and struggled badly in the Arizona Fall League, making for a disappointing 2018 after a strong first full season as a professional. He’s likely a year or two away and may never be more than a reserve in the majors, but the consensus seems to be that there are tools to work with.

As for Rodriguez, the hard-throwing 25-year-old reached the majors last year, bringing control problems with him. It’s hard to judge too harshly, though, as he was also in his first season pitching past the High-A level. Rodriguez has worked almost entirely as a starter during his time in the farm, so he could be sent back down to keep refining. But it’s also possible the Indians will move him into a relief role, potentially of a multi-inning variety, and plan on utilizing him in the majors in the near future.

Veteran reporter Bill Madden suggested on Twitter that a deal was in the works, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic among others reporting (Twitter link) that the sides were in “serious discussions.” Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter) and Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (in a tweet) had the return. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros Non-Tender Chris Herrmann

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The Astros have non-tendered catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets. He was acquired only recently but never seemed like a certain part of the club’s plans.

Clearly, the ’Stros were unwilling to commit even to paying a portion of his projected $1.5MM salary, though perhaps they’ll try to bring him back on another arrangement in free agency. Herrmann burst onto the scene with a solid (but brief) offensive showing in 2016, but ended up signing a minors deal last winter after a dreadful 2017. He went on to impress in limited MLB action last year, and drew the attention of the ’Stros on the waiver wire, so perhaps some team will see fit to offer him a 40-man spot.

Rangers Non-Tender Matt Bush, Three Others

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The Rangers announced tonight that they have non-tendered righty Matt Bush. He’ll be followed out the door by three other players who were not arb-eligible: Ricardo Rodriguez, Zac Curtis and Adrian Sampson.

Bush is still recovering from surgery; evidently, the club isn’t terribly optimistic on his outlook. The former first-overall pick reemerged in Texas as a flamethrowing reliever, but his initially excellent showing has not held up over time. He’ll still be an interesting bounceback target for some other clubs, with a return to the Rangers also a possibility.

Giants Designate Hunter Strickland, Gorkys Hernandez

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The Giants have designated righty Hunter Strickland for assignment, making him a surprise free agent. Also heading out the door is outfielder Gorkys Hernandez.

Strickland’s projected arbitration hit was only $2.5MM, which seems quite reasonable for a flamethrowing reliever who has generally been quite successful. Still, he’s known also for his temper and is coming off of his worst season in the majors.

Over 45 1/3 innings in 2018, Strickland worked to a 3.97 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. A self-sustained finger injury broke up the campaign, with Strickland showing reduced velocity upon his return.

Cubs Non-Tender Ronald Torreyes

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The Cubs have non-tendered recently acquired infielder Ronald Torreyes, per a club announcement. Also non-tendered were non-arb-eligible players Justin Hancock and Allen Webster.

It’s not entirely clear why the Cubs decided to pick up Torreyes days ago, only to set him free. It could be, though, that the club wanted the added insurance while deciding what to do with Addison Russell, who was tendered earlier today. And several other teams have done the same with certain players, so it’s hardly a one-off situation. It seems clear the utilityman could end up in the Chicago organization, though perhaps only if he is willing to sign a minors deal.

Orioles Non-Tender Tim Beckham, Caleb Joseph

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The Orioles announced that shortstop Tim Beckham and catcher Caleb Joseph have been non-tendered. Both are heading onto the open market; the former had projected to earn a $4.3MM salary, the latter $1.7MM.

Beckham seemed to have turned a corner when he landed with the O’s last year, but he fell back to earn in 2018. Over 402 plate appearances, he slashed just .230/.287/.374 and did not grade well at short. As for Joseph, he has bounced up and down with the bat in recent years but turned in a miserable .219/.254/.321 season last year.

Athletics Non-Tender Mike Fiers, Kendall Graveman, Cory Gearrin

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The Athletics have non-tendered a trio of right-handed pitchers, as MLB.com’s Jane Lee tweets. Starters Mike Fiers and Kendall Graveman will be sent to free agency along with reliever Cory Gearrin.

It had been widely expected that Fiers would return to Oakland. After all, the A’s certainly need arms and he was quite successful in 2018 on both sides of the trade that sent him out west from the Tigers. He ended the season with a 3.56 ERA in 172 innings.

Still, Fiers projected to earn a hefty $9.7MM salary. And the results came in spite of some rough underlying stats. Fiers checked in with 7.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9, but coughed up 32 home runs — the same tally he allowed in the prior campaign. All of the major ERA estimators value him as a 4+ performer over each of the past four campaigns.

Graveman, meanwhile, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery and will likely miss most or all of the 2019 campaign. But he’s an interesting pitcher who should draw plenty of looks on the market. Gearrin, too, seems like a prime target as a steady veteran reliever. The A’s simply preferred not to pay their salaries, which were projected at $2.5MM and $2.4MM, respectively.

Phillies Non-Tender Justin Bour, Luis Avilan

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The Phillies announced that they have non-tendered two players who were acquired in the middle of the 2018 campaign. Left-handed-hitting first baseman Justin Bour and lefty reliever Luis Avilan will head to the open market. The former was projected by MLBTR & Matt Swartz to earn a $5.2MM salary, while the latter projected at $3.1MM.

Bour was added as a rental bat last summer, but the 30-year-old was a tough long-term fit on a Phillies roster that already has plenty of immobile sluggers. The 30-year-old will be a prime target of teams looking for lefty pop, though he didn’t perform to his typical standards at the plate in 2018 and is far and away most effective against right-handed pitching.

As for Avilan, 29, he’s sure to find another opportunity. The seven-year MLB veteran has thrown 308 2/3 total frames of 3.09 ERA ball, though of course that has come mostly in action against same-handed hitters. Avilan has held opposing righties to a .672 OPS, which is rather impressive — particularly given that lefty bats carry only a .213/.289/.292 slash against him.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To Non-Tender Deadline

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Tonight marks the deadline for MLB clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. As such, there’ll be a slew of pre-tender agreements announced today — particularly for arbitration-eligible players who might have otherwise been non-tender candidates. As we saw yesterday (and frequently in previous seasons), players agreeing to terms before the tender deadline will often sign for less than they’re projected, as the alternative in some cases may simply be to be cut loose into a crowded free-agent market.

We’ll track today’s pre-tender agreements here, with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…

  • Giants infielder Joe Panik settled at a $3.8MM price tag, per Heyman (via Twitter). That’ll represent a savings as against the $4.2MM projected salary. Many had wondered whether the new San Francisco front office would move on from Panik, who has one more year of arb eligibility remaining. Meanwhile, Heyman tweets that reliever Sam Dyson has agreed to a $5MM pact. That also comes in $400K below his projection.
  • The Padres settled with righty Bryan Mitchell for $900K, Heyman tweets. Mitchell had been a non-tender candidate at a projected $1.2MM sum.
  • Newly acquired first baseman C.J. Cron has agreed to a $4.8MM contract, the Twins announced. He projected to a $5.2MM salary; this becomes the latest of many indications of the unstable market position of defensively limited slugger types.
  • The Indians have settled with righty Danny Salazar for $4.5MM, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. He was projected at $5MM, with some wondering whether the Cleveland organization might non-tender him. The talented hurler missed the entire 2018 season. Meanwhile, righty Nick Goody is slated to earn $675K, Heyman tweets.
  • Southpaw Jonny Venters avoided arb with the Braves, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. It’s a $2.25MM deal, sitting well over the $1.5MM projection, though certainly his unusual career path could have led to some additional arguments for a stronger raise.
  • The Cardinals announced an agreement with lefty Chasen Shreve. Terms aren’t yet known. The 28-year-old had projected to take home $1.2MM for the 2019 campaign, but will settle at $900K per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Pirates righty Michael Feliz has avoided arbitration with the club, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. Feliz projected at a $900K salary and will get $850K, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. It’s a split agreement that promises $375K in the minors, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter).
  • Infielder Tyler Saladino has agreed to a $887,500 salary with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. That comes in below the $1MM he projected to earn.
  • The Athletics settled at $2.15MM with Liam Hendriks, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), all of which is guaranteed. That’s just where he projected ($2.1MM) on the heels of a fascinating 2018 season. Hendriks was dropped from the MLB roster in the middle of the season but returned late in the year in dominant fashion as the A’s “opener.”
  • Lefty Sammy Solis agreed to terms with the Nationals to avoid arbitration, the club announced. He profiled as a potential non-tender candidate, so it seems likely the organization pushed to get something done before the deadline. Solis, who has an intriguing power arsenal but struggled through a homer-prone 2018, projected at $900K. He’ll earn $850K, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
  • The Athletics announced that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with righty Ryan Dull in advance of tonight’s deadline. He’ll get $860K, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets, which checks in pretty closely with his $900K projection. Dull, 29, posted a 4.26 ERA with 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 25 1/3 innings of relief in 2018.
  • Heyman also tweets that the Padres and Greg Garcia, whom they claimed off waivers earlier this offseason, settled on a one-year deal worth $910K that aligns with his $900K projection. Garcia hit .221/.309/.304 in 208 plate appearances with St. Louis last season and is a career .248/.356/.339 hitter in 860 plate appearances.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Brewers and Hernan Perez avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, as first reported by Heyman. He’ll check in a bit shy of his $2.7MM projection but remain on hand as a versatile utility option in Milwaukee.
  • Left-hander Tony Cingrani and the Dodgers avoided arb with a one-year deal worth $2.65MM. That checks in just south of the lefty’s $2.7MM projection. Cingrani turned in a brilliant 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings but was also tagged for a considerably less palatable 4.76 earned run average.
  • The Red Sox announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a one-year contract for the 2019 season with right-hander Tyler Thornburg. They’ve also tendered contracts to the remainder of their arbitration-eligible players, though the terms of those deals will be negotiated in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that Thornburg will earn $1.75MM i 2019 and can earn another $400K via incentives. I’m told that includes $100K for reaching each of 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances. Thornburg, 30, was roughed up to the tune of a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings for the Sox this season — his first action for Boston since being acquired prior to the 2017 season. His Boston tenure has been utterly derailed by thoracic outlet syndrome and the ensuing surgery. Thornburg was excellent for the 2016 Brewers, and Boston parted with Travis Shaw in order to acquire him, so the Sox will surely hope that a regular offseason of rest and further removing himself from TOS surgery will get the righty back on track. This will be Thornburg’s final season of club control. He’d been projected to earn $2.3MM.

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