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Jake Arrieta Declines To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Phillies righty Jake Arrieta won’t exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, keeping him in his deal with the Phillies for the 2020 season, the Associated Press reports.  Arrieta will earn $20MM for the 2020 season, the final year of the three-year, $75MM pact he signed with Philadelphia in March 2018.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported in October that Arrieta was going to remain with the Phillies, and indeed, it became increasingly obvious throughout the veteran right-hander’s injury-marred year that the opt-out clause wouldn’t be a factor.  Arrieta revealed in July that he was trying to keep pitching despite suffering from a bone spur in his throwing elbow, and while he toughed it out as long as possible, Arrieta eventually hit the injured list in mid-August and soon underwent season-ending surgery.

The end result was a 4.64 ERA, 2.16 K/BB rate, and 7.3 K/9 over 135 2/3 innings for Arrieta, easily his least-impressive performance since his early-career struggles as a member of the Orioles in 2010-12.  Arrieta posted by far the largest hard-hit ball (38%) and home run (19.4%) percentages of his career, while his 7.1% swinging-strike rate was the third-lowest total of his career.

Arrieta’s stay in the 2017-18 free agent market was a lengthy one, as he was hampered by the qualifying offer and a feeling amongst some teams that he was beginning to a decline following a good but not great 2017 season with the Cubs.  Over two seasons with the Phillies, Arrieta has a 4.26 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 51.4% grounder rate, and 2.30 K/BB rate — decent numbers, though hardly what the Phils expected from a pitcher earning $25MM in average annual value.

The best-case scenario for Arrieta and the Phillies is that the bone spur was the root cause of his struggles, and he’ll rebound for a healthy and productive age-34 season.  That would be a welcome boost to a Phillies team that was let down by its starting pitching almost across the board last season, though Philadelphia is expected to be pursuing some upgrades this winter.  A good year from Arrieta would also increase his chances at another multi-year in free agency next offseason, as a repeat of his 2019 numbers would likely limit his market to only one-year offers.

Pirates Notes: GM And Manager Search

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The Pirates found themselves in an awkward position when the organization fired general manager Neal Huntington, who had already begun his search for the team’s next manager after Clint Hurdle was fired on the last day of the season. The staggered firings halted the managerial search while introducing the possibility that the next GM would want to take the search in a new direction.

Since a number of candidates have already interviewed to be Hurdle’s replacement, the team won’t necessarily be starting over once a new GM is hired, but the new head of baseball ops will seemingly be somewhat limited in his or her capacity to drive the hiring process. With all that said, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests that of the group that has already interviewed, Derek Shelton, Mark Kotsay, and Jeff Banister had emerged as the favorites, though it’s hard to tab anyone a real frontrunner at this point without a GM steering the ship.

Nine names have been linked to the Pirates’ search thus far, though beyond the organization’s change of direction, at least some of these candidates could already be out of consideration.  Astros bench coach Joe Espada is reportedly one of the finalists to be the Giants’ next skipper, while the Athletics have already announced that bench coach Ryan Christenson and quality control coach Kotsay will be back on next season’s staff.  While that announcement wouldn’t preclude Christenson or Kotsay from a future Pirates hiring, it was noted that Kotsay was no longer a candidate for the Giants’ job.

Interviews with GM candidates will begin this week, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), and we should soon start to hear concrete details about names under consideration.  The likes of former Red Sox and Orioles GM Dan Duquette, Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold, Blue Jays senior VP Tony LaCava, Yankees scout Marc DelPiano have already been mentioned as speculative candidates.

Cubs Exercise Club Option On Anthony Rizzo

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In a move that will shock no one, the Cubs have exercised Anthony Rizzo’s team option for the 2020 season, as ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports. Valued at $16.5MM, it was a no-brainer for the Cubs to keep their franchise cornerstone at a relatively team-friendly price.

When Rizzo inked his seven-year contract extension in 2013, the 2020 and 2021 options were valued at $14.5MM, though Jordan Bastian of MLB.com explains that a pair of top-five MVP finishes in 2015 and 2016 caused that number to escalate to the $16.5MM mark that Rogers cited.

Since joining the Cubs in 2012, Rizzo has grown into the face of the Cubs of the 2010s, embodying the franchise’s recent run of success and 2016 World Series title. He’s been a paragon of consistency and durability; his 146 games played in 2019 marked his fewest appearances in a season since 2014.

Over the last six seasons, Rizzo has made three All-Star teams and earned two Gold Gloves (he’s a finalist again this year) while posting a cumulative OPS of .901. His on-base skills have made him a stalwart in the heart of the Cubs’ lineup—since 2014, his .388 OBP ranks sixth in baseball among players with at least 2000 plate appearances.

And he’s not going anywhere. Barring a catastrophic fall from grace, Rizzo, one of the finest first baseman in the game, should once again be well worth the $16.5MM option for 2021, his age-31 season. That puts him on track to realistically hit the open market ahead of the 2022 season, when he would be 32.

 

Padres Plan To Pursue Stephen Strasburg

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With Nationals co-ace and World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg opting out of his contract and preparing to hit free agency, the Padres are gearing up to make a push for the right-hander’s services. According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, “multiple people in the [Padres] organization indicated over the past few days that the team will be in position to make a run at Stephen Strasburg.”

The connection is clear: Strasburg, 31, was born and raised in and around San Diego, attending college at San Diego State University, where he was coached by Padres legend Tony Gwynn. That alone has instantly forced the Padres into the conversation as a suitor for the former first overall draft choice. Everybody loves a good homecoming story, but one not need look further than Strasburg’s own teammate, Patrick Corbin, as an example of a free agent who was widely regarded as a near-lock to join his hometown Yankees, only to sign on with the Nats. That’s not to say the Strasburg-Padres link doesn’t hold any salt, but there will certainly be more variables that factor into Strasburg’s final decision, and it would behoove the Padres to refrain from relying too much on the hometown trope in recruiting Strasburg.

As Acee notes, the prevailing view around the industry is that the Nationals, who according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman are poised to immediately enter talks with Strasburg, remain the favorites to retain their franchise icon. After opting out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his current deal, the Scott Boras client will be seeking a nice raise on the heels of arguably his best season. He struck out a career-high 251 batters while pitching his most innings since 2014—not including the stellar 36 1/3 innings he logged during the Nats’ title run. Regardless, the Friars’ interest is notable in that it represents a logical progression of the franchise rebuild, which looks to be entering its final stages.

To be sure, location isn’t the only thing that makes Strasburg and the Padres compatible—there’s a fit on paper, as well. Still without a top-flight starter, Strasburg would greatly bolster the Padres’ chances in the coming season. Rookie Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet were the most impressive cogs in the starting rotation, but the depth beyond that pair is troubling. Garrett Richards is healthy and will be back in 2020, and top prospects like Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and Cal Quantrill have graduated to the big leagues. Each of those youngsters could take a second-year leap and contribute to the 2020 rotation, but banking on that would put a lot on the shoulders of an inexperienced group that hasn’t yet shown that they can stick on a Major League staff.

The Padres have long been regarded as a team on the rise, with a healthy stable of prospects that has led many to pronounce the Friars as the next coming of the Cubs or Astros. But potential can only get you so far, and many are itching for the front office to show a sense of urgency and capitalize on the depth of young talent in the organization. Indeed, the front office’s recent actions indicate that the organization feels its window for contention is opening: signing Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer firmly declared the team’s desire to transition into a win-now mode. They were rumored to be in talks for top-flight trade targets like Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, and Marcus Stroman, ultimately coming up empty-handed.

Of course, adding a pitcher of Strasburg’s caliber would require the Padres to ratchet up the 2020 payroll. Roster Resource pegs San Diego’s current obligations at roughly $120MM, a number that includes projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. Of course, some of those players may be non-tendered, and Wil Myers, owner of a hefty $22.5MM salary, is a candidate to be traded. Such moves could partially offset the cost of adding Strasburg, which could come in at a bill exceeding $30MM annually. While San Diego’s deep farm system has made the trade market its primary recourse for acquiring Major League talent, it’s not every day that a pitcher like Strasburg could be had where money is the only cost.

Dodgers Decline Jedd Gyorko’s Option

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The Dodgers have declined their $13MM team option on infielder Jedd Gyorko (h/t to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). He’ll instead receive a $1M buyout.

Today’s news is hardly unexpected. While LA acquired Gyorko from the Cardinals at the trade deadline to bolster their right-handed bench depth, he was never especially likely to cement himself as a long-term option. Injuries limited the veteran to 101 plate appearances between St. Louis and LA, and he was a shell of himself at the plate. Gyorko’s .174/.248/.250 line (36 wRC+) is hardly the platform season he would’ve liked.

That said, Gyorko was a productive player as recently as 2018. Each year from 2016-18, he was around ten percentage points better than a league average hitter. Nothing about his performance jumped off the page, but he was quietly a well-rounded player. Gyorko drew walks at a solid clip, struck out at an average rate, and hit for slightly above-average power. Toss in average defensive metrics at second and third base, and Gyorko was a solid everyday player, albeit not the most exciting.

While Gyorko has some shortstop experience, he’ll presumably be viewed as an insurance option at the corner infield and at second base by suitors. Second base, especially, is rife with veterans who will draw interest on short-term deals, and Gyorko certainly fits in that mix. Still just 31 with productive seasons in the not-too-distant past, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him find a major league deal this winter, although it’ll assuredly be for less than the value of the option the Dodgers declined.

Quick Hits: Twins, Cubs, Rizzo, Strike Zone

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Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Hyun-Jin Ryu were named as three potential offseason targets for the Twins in MLBTR’s recent “Offseason Outlook” series, and that trio was also speculatively connected to the team in a piece from LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (link). Specifically, Neal takes a look at Minnesota’s extremely fluid rotation picture, which in 2019 featured four hurlers–Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, and Martin Perez–who project to enter free agency (assuming the club declines their option on Perez, as expected). The departures of those pitchers could create something of a vacuum in Minnesota, but payroll flexibility and a talented farm should position them well to address any openings, suggests Neal.

By the writer’s calculations, the club could have upwards of $50MM in payroll room this offseason, while youngsters like Brusdar Graterol and Randy Dobnak could step into the rotation for portions of time. That financial leeway could certainly put them in position for pitchers like Bumgarner or the rest of the post-Cole free agent pitching class, to say nothing of possible trade acquisitions.

More notes from around the baseball world…

  • After making a pair of option decisions on Saturday, the Cubs are expected to exercise first baseman Anthony Rizzo’s option imminently, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (link). 2019 saw Rizzo log his sixth consecutive season with a wRC+ north of 126 (his cumulative figure over that span is a whopping 141 wRC+), making him one of the easier club option decisions of the offseason. Rizzo carries a $14.5MM club option for 2020, with a soon-to-be-irrelevant $2MM buyout attached. Next offseason, Chicago holds an identical 2021 option over Rizzo, lining the slugger up for his first realistic shot at free agency in advance of the 2022 season. Rizzo will be 32 on Opening Day of that campaign.
  • MLB experimented with an electronic strike zone in the Arizona Fall League this season, and it proved rather unpopular with pitchers and hitters alike, writes Josh Norris of Baseball America. While players effused praise for the system’s proficiency on the corners, calls at the top and bottom of the zone were less well-received. Additionally, the delay between the system’s tracking the pitch and relaying of that decision to the home-plate umpire caused some awkward exchanges. Of course, growing pains are to be expected, and the electronic zone is at least consistent, Norris adds, so MLB figures to continue to test its viability in lower-stakes games before considering a rollout at the big league level.

Yankees To Extend Aroldis Chapman

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Reports indicate that the Yankees have reached an agreement to keep closer Aroldis Chapman in pinstripes through 2022. New York will add a third year valued at $18MM in addition to the two years and $30MM that remained on Chapman’s previous contract with the club, bringing its total commitment to the hurler to $48MM over the next three seasons, according to reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan (link).

Chapman had been facing a Saturday deadline on an opt-out decision regarding the remaining two seasons on the five-year contract he signed with the club prior to the 2017 season, but the addition of a third season has apparently persuaded him to forego open market opportunities. His original deal with New York represented the largest guarantee ($86MM) ever given to a free agent reliever, and this extension promises to bring Chapman’s six-year Yankees outlay to a whopping $104MM.

Our own Steve Adams predicted on Friday that a three-year deal would be the 31-year-old pitcher’s most likely free agency outcome if Chapman’s representatives at Magnus Sports had been unable to reach an extension accord with New York. That both club and agency were able to come to an agreement should be a boon to the Yankees bullpen, being that Chapman’s presence will allow fellow relievers Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, and Chad Green to remain in the roles they held in 2019. And that’s before accounting for the Cuban native’s personal performance.

In 2019, Chapman, though not exactly the radar gun-breaking flamethrower he once was, recorded superlative numbers by pretty much any measure. He posted 57 innings — his most since signing with New York — en route to a sparkling 2.21 ERA; his 13.4 K/9 rate and 0.47 HR/9 rate were also ready evidence of the lefthander’s late-inning dominance. Working in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium, Chapman recorded 37 saves–his seventh time in the last eight seasons eclipsing the 30-save plateau.

Had Chapman chosen to forego the remaining two years on his deal, he would have in all likelihood entered free agency with a $17.8MM qualifying offer attached to his name. Last offseason saw another great closer of the current era, Craig Kimbrel, remain on the open market well into the regular season after being attached to a QO, so it’s fair to wonder whether that spectacle encouraged Chapman to remain with the bird in hand. Regardless, tonight’s development marks a continued union between arguably the game’s best closer and a team that has in recent years come tantalizingly close to postseason paydirt.

With Chapman off the board, names like Will Harris, Will Smith, Daniel Hudson, and Dellin Betances likely represent the upper end of the 2019-2020 free agent relief class. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a look at some of this winter’s most interesting free agent bullpen arms.

Stephen Strasburg Opts Out Of Nationals Contract

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10:20 pm: Boras and the Nationals plan to start re-negotiating Strasburg’s deal on Sunday, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (link). Of course, that’s no guarantee that the two sides will come to an accord, but it’s certainly noteworthy that both parties appear committed to sustaining a working relationship.

9:28 pm: In a development that promises to have far-reaching implications on this offseason’s free agent market, starter Stephen Strasburg has decided to opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his contract with the Nationals, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (link). As Feinsand notes in a follow-up tweet, the present-day value of the remaining money on his Nationals deal is closer to $88MM, due to the original agreement’s heavily deferred structure (link).

To say that Strasburg heads to the open market with momentum at his back would be a gross understatement. Always an excellent pitcher when healthy, the 31-year-old truly put it all together in 2019, leading his league in both innings pitched and wins, while maintaining typically pristine ERA (3.32) and strikeout (10.81 K/9) marks across 33 starts. And for a follow-up? The San Diego State product and former #1 overall pick laid waste to postseason hitters, allowing just 8 earned runs through 36.1 October innings; his two starts in the Fall Classic were dominant enough to see the righty named 2019’s World Series MVP, despite some tough competition from his offensive teammates. Strasburg will likely garner a fair deal of Cy Young support and now heads into free agency for the first time in his career with superagent Scott Boras as his sidekick.

The prevailing sense around D.C. has long been that the pitcher’s historical allegiance to the team that drafted him would lead to the two parties working out an extension. After all, it was just in 2016 that the hurler decided to extend with a seven-year, $175MM deal with Washington in advance of his impending free agency–a true rarity for a Boras client. However, today’s 12pm EST deadline for his opt-out decision came and went without word, and it appears that both parties declined to arrange a deadline extension to help facilitate negotiation around a new deal, as occurred with the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last offseason.

Instead, Mike Rizzo and his Washington front office will likely find themselves negotiating for the starter’s services against the bidding of several other competing organizations in short order. All of the teams in Strasburg’s native Southern California appear as logical fits, with the Padres, Angels, and Dodgers all projecting to have both spending capacity and rotation needs this winter.

Giants Decline Option On Fernando Abad; Kyle Barraclough Elects Free Agency

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The Giants have declined their 2020 option on reliever Fernando Abad, and reliever Kyle Barraclough has elected free agency after clearing waivers following a DFA this week, according to a tweet from Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com (link).

Abad signed with San Fran on a minors pact in February of 2019, after a 2018 season that saw his career waylaid by a PED suspension. The 33-year-old left-hander, long a reliable bullpen option in the majors, mostly worked with Triple-A Sacramento this season to resounding success. In 44 innings with the River Cats, Abad logged a 3.07 ERA, 10.02 K/9, and a minuscule 0.82 BB/9 rate. He ultimately got some run with the big club, posting a 4.15 ERA (4.52 FIP) in a small sample of 13 innings.

Barraclough was designated this week when the club opted to claim Tyler Anderson from the rival Rockies. Barraclough began the 2019 season with a very rough chapter in Washington D.C., ultimately arriving with the Giants via summer waiver claim. The righty put in time with Sacramento before earning an 8.0-inning trial with San Francisco in September. The now-29-year-old righty logged a 3.21 ERA with an 11.5 K/9 across 218.1 innings out of the Miami pen between 2015 and 2018.

Nationals To Exercise Options On Eaton, Doolittle; Decline Options On Zimmerman, Gomes

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Still in the afterglow of their World Series victory, it appears that the Nationals are deciding to decline their $18MM club option on first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (link). Catcher Yan Gomes will also have his $9MM option declined, while outfielder Adam Eaton ($9.5MM) and reliever Sean Doolittle ($6.5MM) will both see their 2020 options exercised, per Heyman (link).

As was suggested by our own Jeff Todd when Washington declined their option on Matt Adams yesterday, a decline of Zimmerman’s option was easy to foresee. Although he remains something of a franchise icon, the 35-year-old is several years removed from the kind of production that would warrant a salary approaching $20MM. A member of the club’s inaugural 2005 squad, Zimmerman was an All-Star in his heyday, logging a twin pair of 6.6 fWAR seasons in 2009 and 2010. However, the righty swinger has cobbled just 1.4 fWAR over the last two campaigns in spot duty, combining for a modestly above-average 107 wRC+ in that span. It would be not unthinkable for the club to bring him back as veteran depth on a more reasonable one-year term.

The club’s decision on Gomes also rates as rather predictable, even given a relative dearth of catching available on the free agent market this winter. After logging what appeared to be a rebound year with the Indians in 2018, Gomes came back down to earth with a .223/.316/.389 slash line across 358 plate appearances in D.C. this past season. Defensively, 2019 was an essentially mediocre campaign from the 32-year-old, with Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric pegging him with a -1.0 FRAA. The Nationals will owe Gomes a $1MM buyout.

Heading into 2019, Eaton’s option may have seemed something of a toss-up after injuries robbed him of the majority of his 2018 and 2017 seasons. His production this past season was right in line with career averages, however, as his blend of high-contact, on-base ability made him an above-average offensive contributor (107 wRC+). He was merely a passable defensive option in the outfield corners (as his -0.8 UZR would suggest), but a .279/.365/.428 line with 15 homers and 15 steals is essentially tailor-made for the top of a team’s lineup, making his option a clear value.

Doolittle had an up-and-down 2019 that saw him lose sole ownership of the closer’s role in the season’s second half amidst injury and performance concerns. Still, the lefty’s 9.90 K/9 rate, 2.25 BB/9 rate, and 4.05 ERA across 60 regular-season innings represent acceptable relief production in today’s offensively inclined climate.

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