Archives for January 2019

Indians Re-Sign Oliver Perez

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2019 at 1:08pm CDT

The Indians announced Friday that they’ve re-signed left-handed reliever Oliver Perez. It’s a one-year contract with a vesting option for the 2020 season for the Scott Boras client. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Perez will be guaranteed $2.5MM (Twitter link). Perez has a $2.75MM club option that will automatically vest if he reaches 55 games pitched, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The option can also vest at $3MM if he appears in 60 games.

Perez, 37, quietly enjoyed a surprising career renaissance with the Indians last season, working to a sparkling 1.39 ERA with 12.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.28 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate in 32 1/3 innings of work. Perez’s workload in the Majors was limited by the fact that he opened the season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate after agreeing to a minor league deal in hopes of rebuilding his stock. The opportunity to do so didn’t present itself with the Yankees, but Perez latched on with Cleveland on a big league deal in early June and firmly put himself back on the map as a viable bullpen option over the season’s final four months.

While one might think that Perez will serve as a left-handed specialist, as he has in the past, his dominance in 2018 should earn him opportunities regardless of opponent. Righties and lefties alike were utterly befuddled by Perez last year; he held left-handed opponents to a .194/.215/.274 slash, which is excellent but still pales in comparison to the comical .104/.218/.104 slash to which he limited righties.

It’s been a quiet offseason for Cleveland, with Perez somewhat incredibly representing their first Major League free-agent signing of the offseason. The Indians have been more active on the trade front, though they’ve dealt away more MLB talent (Yan Gomes, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion) than they’ve acquired while also losing free agents Michael Brantley (to the Astros) and Cody Allen (to the Angels).

That makes for a puzzling offseason for a club that entered the winter widely expected to run away with its fourth straight division title in 2019. Cleveland may still be the favorites, but improvements by the Twins and White Sox alike will give the Tribe a tougher time in securing a division title — especially considering the lack of improvement this winter. Payroll issues, however, have been said to be a very real limitation in Cleveland after a franchise-record figure in 2018, and it doesn’t seem as if the team is poised to make any notable expenditures between now and Opening Day. All that said, if Perez is able to remotely approximate last season’s excellence, he’ll help to solidify a bullpen that was in dire need of augmentation.

Mets To Sign Justin Wilson

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2019 at 12:58pm CDT

The Mets are in agreement on a contract with free-agent lefty Justin Wilson, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The ACES client’s contract is still pending the completion of a physical. Assuming that checks out, he’ll be paid a total of $10MM over two years, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

Wilson, 31, will give the Mets a much-needed lefty to a bullpen where the previous top options included an inexperienced Daniel Zamora and non-roster invitee Luis Avilan. It’s possible that one or both of those southpaws will still pitch alongside Wilson in the ’pen, but the veteran Wilson will help to solidify the area of need and provide plenty of strikeouts along the way.

Wilson is coming off an up-and-down tenure with the Cubs, with whom he posted a strong 3.41 ERA and averaged 11.4 K/9 last season. While control was an issue early in his Cubs tenure, he righted the ship in that regard over the course of the 2019 season; after walking 30 hitters in his first 26 1/3 innings as a Cub, Wilson regained his control and issued a vastly more manageable 22 walks in his final 46 innings of work in ’18. Left-handed batters, in particular, struggled against Wilson this past season, hitting just .188/.301/.342. He’s been far more than a specialist throughout his career, however, holding right-handed opponents to a .210/.305/.323 line in parts of seven Major League seasons.

The addition of Wilson is the third notable pickup for the Mets and new GM Brodie Van Wagenen this winter, as they’ve previously acquired Edwin Diaz in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners and re-signed Jeurys Familia to a three-year, $30MM contract as well. That newly acquired trio (re-acquired — in Familia’s case) will be joined by righties Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in anchoring what should be an improved Mets bullpen in 2019.

With the signing, Wilson becomes the tenth free-agent reliever to sign a multi-year contract this offseason and the second to do so with the Mets (joining Familia). Adding an annual $5MM salary to the mix will push the Mets’ payroll a bit further north. While they’ll technically be on the hook for upwards of $163MM in 2019, they’ll also receive substantial compensation from insurance policies on both David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes. At present, including the Wilson signing and the insurance money they’ll recoup from Wright and Cespedes, the Mets project to a roughly $149MM payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

NL East Notes: Nola, Markakis, Marlins, Braves, Nats

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2019 at 12:18pm CDT

The Phillies and Aaron Nola have not had any “substantive” discussions regarding a long-term contract extension, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic in a much broader exploration of Nola’s contractual status and pending arbitration case (subscription required). The two sides are facing a $2.25MM gap between the $4.5MM at which the Phillies filed and the $6.75MM at which Nola and Paragon Sports filed.

A hearing is set for Feb. 14, and with no real talks on a multi-year deal taking place to this point, it seems all the likelier that Nola’s case will be resolved in front of an arbitration panel. There’s no immediate urgency for the Phillies to lock Nola up to a long-term contract, and it’s certainly possible that the right-hander’s preference is simply to go year-to-year through arbitration until reaching free agency upon completion of the 2021 season. Both Nola and Yankees right-hander Luis Severino are important cases for future first-time-eligible starters in arbitration; with the exception of Dallas Keuchel (who is anomalous, having entered arbitration fresh off a Cy Young win), no first-time starter has topped the $4.35MM that Dontrelle Willis received way back in 2006. It’s a stunningly outdated number, and arb victories for Nola and/or Severino would help move the needle forward for future starting pitchers.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/25/19

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2019 at 10:40am CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

The Athletics announced a wide slate of non-roster invitations to Spring Training, revealing within that they’ve signed left-hander Kyle Crockett, infielders Corban Joseph and Eric Campbell, and righty Brian Schlitter to minor league contracts. Crockett, 27, has the most significant big league experience among the new additions, having logged 9 1/3 innings with the Reds last year and 74 2/3 innings over the past five seasons. Crockett was a 2013 fourth-rounder who skyrocketed through the minors and impressed in a 2014 MLB debut (1.80 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 in 30 innings). He’s managed just a 5.04 ERA in 44 2/3 frames since, though his 45-to-17 K/BB ratio in that time is solid. Joseph, 30, posted a .541 OPS in 19 plate appearances with the O’s last season and hit .312/.381/.497 in 523 Double-A PAs last year. Campbell, 31, had a three-year run as an up-and-down utility piece for the Mets from 2014-16 and hasn’t been in the Majors since. He’s a career .221/.312/.311 hitter and enjoyed a .313/.420/.445 slash in 402 Triple-A PAs with Miami last year. Schlitter, 33, hasn’t been in the Majors since 2015. He has an ugly 5.40 ERA in 71 2/3 innings with the Cubs but worked to a solid 3.36 ERA in 67 innings with the Dodgers’ top affiliate last season.

Braves’ GM Anthopoulos On Kimbrel, Trade Market

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2019 at 8:53am CDT

The Braves’ offseason began with a bang, signing both Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann early on, but there’s been little activity out of Atlanta since that time. The club did strike up a surprisingly affordable deal to bring Nick Markakis back for at least a fifth season (and possibly a sixth) earlier this week, filling an obvious hole in right field.

Many fans, however, were hoping to see a bigger splash to fill that vacancy — or at least some type of splash following the aggressive November deal that brought Donaldson into the fold. General manager Alex Anthopoulos’ comments about the financial flexibility that Markakis’ contract affords the club only fueled the fire for the Braves’ fanbase and their hopes for another marquee pickup, with many pining for a Craig Kimbrel reunion. However, Anthopoulos’ comments in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM at the very least downplay that possibility — if not almost entirely rule it out (Twitter links, with audio):

“He makes everybody a lot better,” said Anthopoulos of Kimbrel. “He’s one of the best closers of all time. I did come out early in the offseason and, not speaking specifically about him, but [said] our payroll, our model, I don’t know that us spending big, elite dollars on a reliever — length, the term and all that — I don’t know that that model works for us.”

Kimbrel entered the offseason reportedly seeking a massive payday north of $100MM, and while reports since that time have indicated that goal has dropped a bit, the latest update on his asking price suggested the $86MM and $80MM contracts of Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen as targets (although that was a month ago). A closer with Kimbrel’s track record, understandably, is aiming exceptionally high, and even if his price drops a bit further, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his camp eye a deal that tops Wade Davis’ $17.33MM average annual value record for a reliever.

Wherever Kimbrel’s contract eventually lands, it seems reasonable to think that he’ll command the “big, elite dollars” to which Anthopoulos expressed an aversion. If that proves to be the case, Anthopoulos suggested that he’s happy with the end-game options the Braves already have in house while acknowledging that he’s still considering veteran additions.

“From a bullpen standpoint, A.J. Minter, Arodys Vizcaino did a nice, solid job for us,” said Anthopoulos. “…Hopefully, a young guy like Minter can take one more step. I think having a healthy Darren O’Day is going to be big, and then some of the other young kids that really took a step and had a nice year have a chance to continue to contribute. But, there’s no doubt if we can get more talent, more experience — especially at the end of the game — it’s going to slot everybody down. That’s definitely something we’ve explored, both in trade and free agency.”

The trade market — specifically, Atlanta’s lack of activity on that front — has been another potential source of consternation among fans. The Braves organization has famously built up a wealth of premium prospects and a deep reserve of secondary (but still high-quality) minor leaguers that has made their farm system one of baseball’s best. Clearly, there isn’t room for all of the stockpiled talent to claim regular roles with the big league club, and many would like to see the team cash in some of those farmhands for proven MLB talent. That, said Anthopoulos, is something the team has explored at length, though there’s been no common ground reached with teams shopping intriguing talent.

The GM plainly stated that his club was “definitely engaged” with the Mariners with regard to James Paxton, though the lefty eventually went to the Yankees in a package headlined by MLB-ready top prospect Justus Sheffield and another high-quality, near-MLB arm in Erik Swanson. Atlanta also spoke to the Mariners about closer Edwin Diaz before Seattle sent him and half of Robinson Cano’s remaining contract to the Mets in exchange for a package led by this past draft’s No. 6 overall pick, Jarred Kelenic.

“At the end of the day, we had the ability to say ’yes,'” said Anthopoulos of those talks. “We got a price on players like that. We’re definitely going to be ’in’ on those guys. … I think, at the end of the day, we really feel strongly about the talent that we have. We put some good young players on the table in deals. I think maybe where we hit a bit of a snag in some of these things is just the volume — and that’s where we do pause, and we kind of pump the brakes a little bit.”

Though the inability to reach an agreement is surely frustrating for the Braves’ front office as well, Anthopoulos indicated that it’s often a relief to look back on some deals that ultimately weren’t made. He noted that he was most frequently asked about both Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies last offseason and is thankful not to have budged on either player and also “pretty happy” to have passed on some trade-deadline offers with which they were presented. (Of course, there are undoubtedly prospects whose stock has dropped that the Braves may, with the benefit of hindsight, been able to have let go without significant consequence.)

Ultimately, it sounds as though the Braves will continue to explore the trade market — they’re still oft-connected to J.T. Realmuto, for instance, and there are teams with relief pitchers available — but at the very least, it seems Atlanta fans should temper their expectations with regard to a Kimbrel reunion, which is a disheartening reality not only for them but also for Kimbrel’s camp. Kimbrel still seems destined for a sizable payday, but Anthopoulos is the second baseball ops leader in the past two weeks to suggest that paying Kimbrel at a premium rate likely isn’t in the cards; Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made similar comments recently, all of which only further clouds the market for the offseason’s top free-agent reliever.

Avila On Tigers’ Anticipated Payroll Timeline

By Jeff Todd | January 24, 2019 at 11:11pm CDT

Tigers GM Al Avila suggested today that his eyes are still fixed well into the future, as Detroit’s WXYZ.com covers. That was largely safe to assume anyway, of course, but his discussion of the team’s financial planning is still important to note.

Avila did not just focus on the club’s expected arrival of new talent at the MLB level. As he put it, instead: “After 2020, our payroll will be in a lot better place for us to be aggressive going into 2021.” That focus on MLB spending is interesting for a few reasons.

For one thing, the difference between the 2020 and 2021 balance sheets isn’t hard to suss out. Both include $30MM for Miguel Cabrera; only the former comes with $25MM for Jordan Zimmermann and the final $6MM owed to Prince Fielder. Of course, those are the club’s only future commitments, so it still seems a bit curious to suggest that the long-term payroll trajectory is the driving force here.

Relatedly, it seems the organization has already largely decided that next winter won’t be an opportune time to push some cash onto the table. The Tigers have spent a decent bit of coin on one-year free agent deals since launching their rebuild, but mostly have targeted veteran gap-fillers who might turn into summer trade chips. It has long seemed interesting to wonder whether the club might consider putting its once-lofty payroll to use by chasing down some reasonably spendy players on the open market, even if it means taking a bit of risk. But it appears that will not be the case this winter or next.

So, when will the Tigers open things up? Avila didn’t make any promises, saying “we will have some money by 2021 to start going out there” but suggesting that hasn’t been pre-determined to be a breaking point. “Whether it be 2021 or 2022, at that point, we will be in a place, from a payroll perspective where I want to be at,” he said. Needless to say, it’s plenty understandable that the club has not yet decided how it’ll act at that point. And it’s also fair to avoid the setting of overly specific expectations. Still, the fuzzy future picture is no doubt less than inspiring for fans who may be looking ahead to two or three more clear rebuilding seasons.

While the Tigers have managed to draw down their spending over the past two years from its $200MM-ish heights in 2016-17, the club has never had a clear path to a quick rebuild. There was over $125MM on the books to open the 2018 season and there’ll be over $112MM to pay this year, due in no small part to ongoing obligations that are vestiges of the team’s last effort to contend. It has also taken a while to get the farm system producing again, too, as the club doesn’t seem to have come away from its post-contention veteran swaps with many significant assets and has only just begun reaping the rewards of top draft position. There are certainly some bright spots in the organization, especially with an intriguing mix of pitching talent building in the minors, but it seems the Detroit organization has no intentions of rushing the process.

NL West Notes: Joc, Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Giants

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | January 24, 2019 at 8:46pm CDT

Joc Pederson’s name has been raised in recent trade rumblings, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Los Angeles isn’t close to any deals involving the 26-year-old outfielder. The Dodgers may have lost a suitor for Pederson recently when the Braves re-signed Nick Markakis to a one-year contract with a club option, and for the time being, Pederson looks like he’ll be a key part of L.A.’s attack against right-handed pitching. As Rosenthal notes, the Dodgers’ signing of A.J. Pollock was fueled partly by an internal belief that the team would struggle against left-handed pitching. Pollock figures to line up as the team’s primary center fielder, with Cody Bellinger seeing some time there, in the outfield corners and at first base. Pederson, too, gives the Dodgers a potent weapon against righties, though he’s dreadful historically against lefties — which wouldn’t be as much of a concern (if he is retained) with Pollock in the fold.

Here’s more from the division…

The Diamondbacks are still looking to add to the bullpen this offseason, general manager Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. It has been a rather quiet winter in Phoenix outside of the franchise-altering trade sending face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. As the D-backs have worked to pare back payroll and embark on something of a soft reset, they’ve made some small-scale moves such as the signing of Wilmer Flores and Merrill Kelly (on top of the MLB-level talent added for Goldy). Plus, of course, the club kicked things off by re-upping Eduardo Escobar just before he hit the open market. Plenty of chatter has focused on the team’s remaining potential trade candidates, particularly in the pitching staff, but it’s not clear whether much possibility of tht remains. Regardless, it seems prudent for the organization to pursue some relief arms, given the course it has taken to this point. Presumably, any ’pen additions would be of the measured variety, as the Snakes gear up for what looks likely to be a still-competitive but mostly transitional year.
Meanwhile, Nick Groke of The Athletic takes a look at a sleepy Rockies offseason, which has mostly involved the replacement of the departing DJ LeMahieu with Daniel Murphy. In the subscription piece, Groke describes the Rox’ participation in the market thus far this winter as “an empty freezer more than a hot stove.” The diagnosis, it seems, is a fairly simple one: the club simply doesn’t have the payroll space to pursue more aggressively further upgrades to its lineup. It really is a tricky spot, as the club as presently constituted seems a clear second to the Dodgers in the division. At the same time, there’s a clear opportunity to press ahead due to the vulnerability of the remaining NL West pack and the fact that this is the final season of control over star third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s largely unclear whether GM Jeff Bridich will find a way to further boost the club’s sagging offense this winter, though it seems fair to presume he’s still looking for the right angle — be it a trade or (hopefully) high-value, low-cost free agent acquisition. Boosting the mix behind the plate and in the outfield would make sense on paper; whether it’ll prove feasible remains to be seen.
The Giants have far greater uncertainty in their own outfield, though the club is also in quite a different overall stance. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi expressed confidence that the organization would have a suitable slate of outfielders when the time comes. In a statement that helps explain the Giants’ position as well as the overall trajectory of the free agent process, Zaidi explains: “As long as we feel there are good options out there by trade or free agency, the actual pulling of the trigger becomes a little bit less relevant as long as you feel you have some good leads, which I think we do. You don’t want to get in a situation of urgency or even panic.” With the San Francisco organization likely to eschew major, multi-year pacts this winter, it’s certainly understandable that they intend to exercise more patience. It’ll be interesting to see what opportunities might present themselves.

Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, Sergio Romo Generating Interest

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 6:05pm CDT

Jan. 24: In addition to Madson and Brach (who, as Passan suggested was likely, found a home earlier today when he agreed to a deal with the Cubs), it seems that both Shawn Kelley and Sergio Romo are likely to find a landing spot in the near future.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Kelley is choosing among three teams and could make a decision on his 2019 home “soon.” Fancred’s Jon Heyman, too, tweets that Kelley is being “heavily pursued,” as are both Madson and Romo.

Kelley, who’ll turn 35 in April, posted a 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 30.2 percent grounder rate in 49 innings between the A’s and the Nats in ’18 — his third sub-3.00 ERA in the past four seasons.

Romo, meanwhile, helped to pioneer the “opener” role with the Rays last season, making five starts in that still-developing role. The 35-year-old (36 in March) had three very successful outings and one quite ugly showing (three earned runs in a third of an inning) as an opener but turned in a 3.88 ERA with a 68-to-16 K/BB ratio in 62 2/3 innings as a more conventional reliever. Romo nailed down 25 saves for Tampa Bay and turned in a 13 percent swinging-strike ratio and a 33.1 percent chase rate.

Jan. 23: As the second and third tiers of the relief market continue to move, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that there are expected to be a number of one-year agreements in the coming days as teams parse the remainder of the bullpen market (beyond top available reliever Craig Kimbrel). Ryan Madson, in particular, has been a popular target recently, Passan reports, adding that Brad Brach is “another to keep an eye on.”

It’s been fairly quiet on both right-handers this offseason, though Brach has recently been connected to the Twins, who are known to be seeking another veteran reliever after already having signed Blake Parker earlier this month. Of course, there are numerous clubs on the lookout for bullpen help, with the Red Sox, Indians, Cubs and Braves among the teams recently still eyeing relief additions.

Madson, 38, turned in poor bottom-line results but promising secondary numbers in a season split between the Nationals and Dodgers in 2018. Chest and back issues cost Madson about three total weeks of time, but he nonetheless logged 52 2/3 innings with 9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate. His velocity actually improved over its 2017 levels, as he averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer and 95.4 mph on his sinker, per Statcast. Madson also posted a 13.9 percent swinging-strike rate that was his best since returning from a three-year injury absence in 2015.

All of that is to say that while Madson’s 5.47 ERA is clearly unsightly, there are plenty of underlying indicators that he could yet have some run as a quality big league reliever left in his arm. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.98), xFIP (3.97) and SIERA (3.54) all felt that Madson was drastically better than his ERA indicated; the right-hander was, after all, plagued by a .340 average on balls in play and a 64.5 percent strand rate — both of which are significantly out of line with his career levels.

Turning to Brach, the 32-year-old (33 in April) struggled through a tough first half with the Orioles. His walk rate in Baltimore spiked to 4.3 BB/9 — a noted increase from his strong 2016-17 seasons — and he was tagged for a 4.85 ERA through 39 innings before being flipped to the Braves. Brach, though, was torched by a .371 average on balls in play in Baltimore, where a generally poor defensive club didn’t do him many favors. His 12.3 percent swinging-strike rate and 35.9 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches were both solid marks (particularly the latter), and he did improve both his control and his velocity upon being dealt to the Braves.

Brach ultimately finished out the year with a 3.59 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 and a 46 percent grounder rate in 62 2/3 frames of bullpen work between the two teams. That’s a solid enough season, though if he’s able to rebound to his 2013-17 form — combined 2.79 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 in 319 2/3 innings — he could prove an even more valuable pickup to his next team.

Padres Sign Chris Stewart, Boog Powell To Minor League Deals

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 5:49pm CDT

The Padres announced a series of non-roster invites to Major League Spring Training on Thursday, with veteran catcher Chris Stewart and outfielder Boog Powell standing out as previously unreported additions to the organization. (A full list of the non-roster invitations can be seen here.)

Stewart, 37 next month, has appeared in parts of 12 big league seasons and frequently served as a backup or third-string catcher throughout that time. A career .230/.297/.291 hitter in 1334 plate appearances, the defensive-minded veteran split last season between the Braves and D-backs organization, appearing in just eight games. Prior to that, Stewart spent four seasons in Pittsburgh, where he totaled 192 games of reserve work for the Pirates. Stewart has consistently graded out as a strong pitch framer and been solid in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt, per Baseball Prospectus, and he’s also registered a slightly better-than-average 28 percent caught-stealing rate in his career.

The 26-year-old Powell (not to be confused with the 1970 AL MVP and four-time All-Star) spent the 2018 season with the Athletics organization after Oakland acquired him in the 2017 swap that sent Yonder Alonso to Seattle. It was actually the A’s who originally drafted Powell back in 2012, though it took a series of three trades for him to eventually land in the big leagues in green and gold.

In 59 games and 160 plate appearances at baseball’s top level, Powell is a .262/.333/.383 hitter with three homers, six doubles, a triple and a steal. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and has shown a knack for getting on base but limited power during his time in the upper minors; in parts of four Triple-A seasons, Powell is a .276/.358/.371 hitter.

Yankees Sign Adam Ottavino

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 4:40pm CDT

Jan. 24: The Yankees have formally announced the signing. Ottavino will be paid $8MM annually, tweets Heyman, and he’ll receive a deferred $3MM signing bonus.

Jan. 17, 12:47pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Ottavino will be guaranteed $27MM over the three-year term.

12:42pm :The Yankees have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had reported seconds prior that the two sides were closing in on an arrangement believed to be worth roughly $25MM over three years (Twitter link). Ottavino is represented by All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Ottavino, a New York native who went to high school in Brooklyn, has been connected to the Yankees since before the offseason even began. His addition comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 season with the Rockies in which the 33-year-old righty pitched to a 2.43 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate in 77 2/3 innings of relief.

Ottavino joins an already loaded New York relief corps that features Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green and fellow offseason signee Zach Britton. That group is impressive on its own, before even considering 25-year-old righty Jonathan Holder, who may not yet be a household name but has nevertheless emerged as a quality reliever in his own right. Certainly, no bullpen is ever a sure thing to produce, given the year-over-year volatility of relief pitchers, but in terms of sheer talent and upside, there’s arguably no better collection of bullpen arms in baseball right now.

It should be noted that while Ottavino had a career year in 2018, the two prior seasons garnered more mixed results. Ottavino underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015 and missed the majority of that season as well as a notable chunk of the 2016 campaign. When he returned in July 2016, he was nothing short of excellent, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 35-to-7 K/BB ratio and a preposterous 61.9 percent grounder rate in 27 innings.

The 2017 season, however, was brutal for Ottavino, as he averaged 6.6 walks and 1.35 homers per nine innings pitched en route to a 5.06 ERA. Coming off that campaign, few would’ve believed that the righty would put himself in position to score this type of three-year deal on the open market, but his remarkable bounceback effort was an eye-opener. Ottavino’s 12.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t commensurate with the whiff rate you’d expect for someone averaging 13 punchouts per nine innings, and his 26.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches is well below the league average for a reliever. Nonetheless, today’s agreement serves as evidence that the Yankees are convinced of his ability to at least approach his 2018 output as he enters his mid-30s.

In effect, Ottavino will be replacing right-hander David Robertson, who signed with the Phillies on a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $23MM a couple of weeks back. Britton, the team’s other marquee addition, had already finished out the season in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen following a deadline trade with the Orioles. In that sense, then, one could argue that the bullpen hasn’t definitively improved. Of course, improving on a relief corps that posted the game’s fourth-best ERA (3.38) and the game’s highest strikeout percentage (30.2 percent) is no small feat. At the very least, swapping out Robertson for Ottavino will ensure that the Yankees’ bullpen should maintain its already elite status, even if one or two of the team’s top relievers take a step back in ’19.

The recent additions of Ottavino and DJ LeMahieu, former Rockies teammates now reunited in the Bronx, have added $21MM worth of luxury tax hits to the Yankees’ ledger. That should put them firmly above the $206MM cutoff even if they’re successfully able to find a taker for Sonny Gray and his $7.5MM salary. As Jason Martinez outlines at Roster Resource, the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll currently projects to just north of $224MM, while their actual in-season 2019 payroll — assuming an even $9MM per year breakdown of Ottavino’s deal — currently rests around $209.5MM.

However, the Yankees dipped south of the luxury tax line last season, which reset them back into the lowest penalty bracket. As such, they’ll be faced with a relatively tame penalty — a 12 percent overage tax on every dollar north of the $206MM cutoff point.

The three-year, $27MM value of Ottavino’s contract is likely a bitter pill for the Rockies to swallow, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes (Twitter link). The Rox handed out a pair of three-year deals worth that exact amount when signing Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee an offseason ago, both of whom struggled through awful seasons in year one of those contracts. That pair of signings, however, combined with the $52MM pact given to Wade Davis, surely restricted the Rockies’ ability to make an earnest effort to re-sign Ottavino this winter.

Generally, though, Ottavino’s contract falls well within range of what was reasonably expected heading into the offseason. We at MLBTR ranked him 21st on our annual ranking of the game’s Top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d secure a three-year, $30MM pact with the Yankees.

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