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Archives for July 2019

Angels Focused On Acquiring Players Controlled Beyond 2019

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At 50-48 and 11 games back in the American League West, the Angels don’t have much hope of contending for a division title. They’re one of six AL clubs with a plausible shot at a Wild Card spot, however, currently sitting five and a half games back in the standings. That might not put them in position to be one of the market’s most aggressive buyers, but general manager Billy Eppler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he’s “absolutely” looking to add to his roster.

Eppler specifies that the Halos will “lean heavily” toward players controlled beyond the 2019 season, likely due to the fact that they’re chasing a one-game playoff. Clubs are generally reluctant to be too aggressive in selling off significant farm assets for a coinflip Wild Card showdown, making Eppler’s approach a fairly straightforward one.

Looking around the Angels’ roster, the pitching staff stands out as a logical area on which to focus. Neither Matt Harvey nor Trevor Cahill has performed anywhere close to the manner in which the Angels hoped when signing the pair to one-year deals over the winter, and both will be free agents at season’s end. The tragic death of Tyler Skaggs still enshrouds the organization as well, and while it always feels a bit cold to look at such a heartbreaking event through a pure baseball lens, it’s hard to understate just how significant that loss is for the Angels’ rotation moving forward. Shohei Ohtani will return to the mound in 2020, joining Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning, but there’s little clarity beyond that trio.

The summer trade market should feature several options who are controlled/signed through at least the 2020 season. Marcus Stroman is the likeliest such arm to move, but others potentially available options include Matthew Boyd (arb-eligible through 2022), Robbie Ray (arb-eligible through 2020), Trevor Bauer (arb-eligible through 2020) and Mike Minor (signed for $9.5MM in 2020). Minor is admittedly a tough fit even if is ultimately traded, given that the division-rival Rangers are currently a game ahead of the Angels in the standings. Controllable catching options might be a bit tougher to dig up — Wilson Ramos or James McCann could be available, and the Padres have depth at the position — but the Angels have had a bit of a revolving door behind the plate in recent seasons.

Part of the decision to operate as buyers could also be a function of the fact that the Angels don’t have much in the way of short-term assets to sell. All of the club’s short-term, offseason pickups are either injured (Jonathan Lucroy, Tommy La Stella) or playing poorly (Harvey, Cahill and the already released Cody Allen). The team’s core is controlled beyond this season. Eppler calls moving a player with club control remaining a “non-starter” in trade negotiations, as the front office is focused on an “upward angle” for the team.

The Angels have just under $115MM committed to the payroll for the 2020 season and don’t have may significant arbitration raises on the horizon, so they should be in good position to take on salary in a trade if need be. The team’s current payroll, for context, exceeds $177MM.

White Sox Sticking With Rick Renteria

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White Sox manager Rick Renteria is in his third season on the job, and it’s likely he’ll have three straight sub-.500 campaigns to show for his work once the year concludes. After combining for a 129-195 record from 2017-18, this year’s Renteria-led White Sox have gone into a tailspin and fallen to 42-51. The rebuilding club was surprisingly just one game under .500 through 83 contests, but it has dropped nine of 10 since then, including all seven of its post-All-Star break matchups. Most of the second-half defeats have come at the hands of the abysmal Royals, who completed a four-game sweep of the White Sox on Thursday.

As poorly as things are going right now for Chicago, its struggles aren’t going to lead to a new manager. Not only is Renteria’s job safe for this year, but it doesn’t seem the White Sox will be going in another direction in the dugout anytime soon.

General manager Rick Hahn heaped praise on Renteria on Thursday, saying (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times), “As we said at the start of this process, we believed Ricky was the right man not only for the early stages of it but also for when the time arrived that we were ready to contend for championships.”

Hahn went on to credit the 57-year-old Renteria’s “strengths as a teacher, as a communicator, as someone who helps forge a new culture” – all of which have been important during the team’s rebuild, the GM believes. But once the White Sox move past the rebuilding phase, “[Renteria’s] ability to put the players in the best position to succeed and to maximize the win potential of our -rosters will be moved more -towards the forefront,” according to Hahn.

It certainly wouldn’t be fair at this point to judge Renteria on the team’s win-loss mark under his stewardship. He simply hasn’t had the horses to compete since succeeding Robin Ventura as the White Sox’s manager. Soon after Renteria went from Ventura’s bench coach to his replacement, the White Sox opted for a teardown, trading stars Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana from December 2016 to July 2017.

The blockbuster deals the White Sox pulled off a couple years ago have begun to pay significant dividends at the major league level. A few of the premium prospects from those swaps (Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease) have either established themselves in Chicago or stand legitimate chances to do so. How much credit should go to Renteria for that is up for debate. What’s clear is that he’s getting much more of a chance on the South Side of Chicago than he did on the North Side. He previously helped oversee the end of the Cubs’ rebuild as their manager in 2014, when they finished 73-89. The Cubs then moved on from Renteria in favor of Joe Maddon, who has steered a talent-laden team to four straight playoff berths and a World Series title.

AL Notes: Bauer, Castellanos, Pujols, Orioles

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Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer turned in a terrific performance Thursday in a win over the Tigers, striking out 10 and yielding three earned runs on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings. Despite Bauer’s importance to the playoff-contending Indians, his name has been frequently bandied about in trade rumors this summer. As a result, Thursday could’ve been one of his last starts as a member of the Tribe. Asked after the game if the rumors have been on his mind, Bauer told Mandy Bell of MLB.com and other reporters: “Nope. Don’t think about it.” Notably, though, Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti did address the team regarding the deadline “to make sure no one was blindsided by any discussions, especially Bauer,” Bell writes.

  • The Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos is likely a more realistic trade candidate than Bauer, but the right fielder suggested Thursday he’s not fully convinced a deal will come together before the deadline. Castellanos said (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that “I wouldn’t be shocked if I don’t get traded. Everybody thought I’d get traded last trade deadline. Everybody thought I’d get traded this offseason. There were people who thought I’d get traded in spring training.” With an extension between the non-contending Tigers and Castellanos appearing to be out of the question, it’s highly probable the team will part with him this month unless there’s no interest from elsewhere. Regardless, Castellanos indicated to McCosky that he has made peace with whatever happens and is more focused on what happens on the field, where he has been on an offensive tear of late.
  • Angels first baseman Albert Pujols exited the team’s game Thursday with left hamstring tightness, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was among those to report (Twitter links). It doesn’t seem like an issue that’s going to lead to an IL stint, though, as manager Brad Ausmus said afterward Pujols will miss a small amount of time or none at all. The Hall of Fame-bound 39-year-old has appeared in 76 games this season and hit .243/.306/.439 (96 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 314 plate appearances.
  • Thursday was the one-year anniversary of the Orioles-Dodgers blockbuster that sent former O’s franchise player Manny Machado to Los Angeles. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun revisits the swap in a piece focusing on outfield prospect Yusniel Diaz, the headlining part of the Orioles’ five-player return. Diaz didn’t log great production with Baltimore’s Double-A affiliate after the trade last year, and he told Meoli via an interpreter he felt “a lot of pressure” trying to make good on the trade. That pressure has died down, though, and Diaz is now having a better season than last as a member of the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate. The 22-year-old has progressed with the help of Double-A hitting coach Keith Bodie, as Meoli details in his piece.

Report: “Minimal Interest” In Mike Leake

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Seattle and Arizona may or may not have almost come together on a trade for Mariners right-hander Mike Leake in early June. Nearly two months later, Leake remains a Mariner, but he and the team “are ready to be done with” each other, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports in a piece examining the M’s potential trade chips leading up to the July 31 deadline. Unfortunately for the Mariners and Leake, interest in the starter been “minimal” since the club discussed him with Arizona, according to Divish.

As a soon-to-be 32-year-old on a team that’s not contending now and probably won’t during the next season or two, Leake is an obvious trade candidate. Leake does have a full no-trade clause, though, which makes his apparent eagerness to leave the Mariners all the more noteworthy. That said, a willingness to waive your no-trade protection obviously doesn’t matter if teams aren’t interested in your services.

For the most part, Leake has been a steady, durable rotation piece since his career began with the Reds in 2010. Also an ex-Giant and Cardinal, Leake came into the year with a 3.99 ERA/4.11 FIP, 6.07 K/9, 2.06 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent walk rate over 264 starts and 1,627 1/3 innings. But Leake hasn’t done anything to boost his trade stock through 115 1/3 frames this year, even though he has bettered his typical strikeout/walk numbers with 6.63 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9.

Walks have been hard to come by against Leake, whereas batters haven’t had much trouble collecting hits or home runs off him. Just two starters have coughed up more hits than Leake (133), whose HR/9 (1.87) also sits third from the bottom and ranks as a career worst. The .349 weighted on-base average and .346 xwOBA he has allowed are also nearer to the low end of the totem pole than the top. With those facts in mind, it’s unsurprising Leake’s 4.60 ERA and 4.99 FIP are among the highest of his career.

The 2019 version of Leake has been a back-of-the-rotation innings eater, which does carry some value. However, the fact that Leake’s still on the five-year, $80MM deal he signed with the Cardinals prior to the 2016 campaign complicates matters. He came into 2019 with two guaranteed years and $36MM left on the pact, and though the Cards are chipping in $5MM this season and $4MM in ’20, it’s still too rich for other teams. The Mariners are willing to eat a significant amount of the money they’re paying Leake in order to move him, per Divish, but that hasn’t helped them find a taker yet.

Hanser Alberto: Trade Piece?

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Infielder Hanser Alberto had an extreme amount of difficulty sticking with one organization last offseason. The Yankees claimed Alberto off waivers from the Rangers on Nov. 2, only to designate him for assignment Jan. 11. The Orioles claimed Alberto that same day but designated him Feb 19. The Giants claimed Alberto on Feb. 22 and then designated him March 1, at which point the Orioles scooped him back up.

Thankfully for Alberto, the O’s haven’t subjected him to the waiver process again since they reclaimed him. Rather, rebuilding Baltimore has seen Alberto turn into a useful part of its roster since earning a season-opening spot on it. That doesn’t mean Alberto is there to stay, though. On the contrary, the 26-year-old may now be a trade chip for the club with the July 31 deadline approaching, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com observes.

The Orioles’ version of Alberto has been substantially more productive than the player the Rangers got in parts of three seasons from 2015-18. During that stretch of 192 plate appearances, Alberto mustered an unfathomably awful wRC+ (9), batted .192/.210/.231 and failed to hit a home run. This year, though, Alberto has been 10 times the offensive player by wRC+ (91), having slashed .306/.325/.402 with five homers across 304 PA.

Although much improved, Alberto’s 2019 numbers still aren’t all that exciting – especially taking his .311 weighted on-base average/.292 xwOBA and meek 83 mph average exit velocity into account. On the other hand, the righty has terrorized southpaw pitchers, whom he has teed off on for a .397/.407/.512 line (144 wRC+) in 121 trips to the plate. The problem is that those numbers are rather unlikely to hold. After all, Alberto has benefited from a .438 batting average on balls in play versus LHPs, and has drawn just one walk against them.

Along with his serviceable bottom-line production at the plate, Alberto has provided the Orioles a credible defender at second and third base. Alberto has essentially been a scratch fielder at each of those spots in 50 and 36 appearances, respectively, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. And for what it’s worth, he’s a well-liked, high-energy clubhouse presence, according to Kubatko.

The Orioles value Alberto’s on- and off-field contributions, and as someone who won’t reach arbitration for the first time until the offseason, they don’t have to trade him. But “Alberto’s value may never reach this level again,” Kubatko writes, which could persuade the club to deal him for something almost five months after getting him for nothing.

Can The Phillies Justify A Win-Now Deadline?

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It’s obvious on the face of the standings that the Phillies haven’t been playing great ball. After setting the pace in the NL East through early June, the club took a spill (dropping 11 of 13) and has limped along ever since at about a .500 rate of play. The Braves are largely cruising. The Nats just streaked past. The Mets are even back on their feet and in pursuit.

This is what all of that looks like in Fangraphs form: a bunch of jagged lines that signify devastating changes to the Phillies’ odds of appearing in the postseason. That chart, at least, shows that there’s still at least something like a one-in-five chance … at a coin-flip game to get a full playoff series. The division is the real prize. How are things looking there? Well, the descending jags are beginning to flatline.

More worrying still is the fact that the Phillies’ record may not even accurately reflect the team’s true state. Entering play today, the club was carrying a negative-20 run differential. By measure of BaseRuns — which looks not at actual runs or actual wins, but reasonably expected runs (and by translation wins) based upon underlying performance — the Phils have outperformed their theoretical win expectancy by a whopping seven games. The good news is that the team does not actually sit five games below .500. The bad news is that they have (broadly speaking) played like such a team, and project to play sub-.500 ball going forward.

I can already hear some readers’ alarm bells going off … what happened didn’t really quite happen? you can predict the future? Phooey! None of those fancy stats are gospel, true, though they do provide critical context for understanding outcomes that necessarily depend upon a vast array of factors. And it’s not as if other means of analyzing the situation provide cause for greater optimism. Phillies pitchers — especially starters — are giving up home runs by the bucket. (Analytical aside: the Phils’ three most successful starters — Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Jake Arrieta — have also outperformed their FIP/xFIP/SIERA numbers.) Closer Hector Neris is suddenly on the ropes. What appeared at the outset to be a loaded lineup is now without one of its best pieces (Andrew McCutchen) and carries a distinctively middle-of-the-road .243/.322/.420 collective output.

This is a club that entered the season with huge expectations after promising its fans significant spending and going on to secure the services of McCutchen, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, and David Robertson. It’s not as if it’s totally out of the picture. Still, it doesn’t feel like a time for anything close to an all-in push.

And yet … here we are, reading about the Phillies’ broad canvassing of the starting pitching market. The club is reportedly looking into just about every starting pitcher named on MLBTR’s list of the top sixty free agents — including pure rental players, highly paid veterans, and younger/more controllable hurlers. From public reports, anyway, it seems to be the sort of open-ended approach that would seem better suited to a club in a clearer position to contend.

But it may be that we shouldn’t read too much into the laundry list of starting pitching targets. It would behoove the club to have a good sense of the price of all the arms, after all. And at some point, it’d be worth going ahead with a move even for a pending free agent if the acquisition cost is low enough. There’s no particular reason to believe the team would act in an overly rash manner, even if it has an obvious interest in seeing through its significant offseason investments. President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak have plenty of contractual security, so their incentives should be fully in line with those of the organization itself.

Notably, the club’s leadership hasn’t been shy about acknowledging the predicament. MacPhail seems quite realistic about the situation. It’s no question whether the team is “one trade away from the World Series,” he said: “We don’t believe that. I don’t believe that.” Well then. That doesn’t mean that the club won’t pursue additions, but the declining postseason odds will clearly influence the nature of the pursuit. MacPhail suggested the Phils would “be more judicious with [their] playing talent,” while noting that such hesitancy to give up high-end prospects “doesn’t mean you can’t make a deal where a component is taking on somebody’s salary.”

So, where do and where should the Phillies stand when the deadline hits? That’ll obviously depend upon the final run of play, but presuming the situation remains roughly the same, there’s little doubt that a true all-in deadline approach would be unwise. The odds of a division title are minuscule; chances at a Wild Card are rather low. That said, there’s unquestionably value in pursuing even a play-in opportunity. Drawing fans down the stretch, convincing season-ticket holders to re-up for 2020, maintaining roster morale, preparing for another offseason of player recruiting (free agents and extension targets), adding players who’ll feature on future rosters … there are causes aplenty even beyond that of boosting the odds of a postseason berth itself. And even a Wild Card comes with an approximately 50/50 shot at earning a full series … and who knows from there?

What’s most interesting here is the fact that the Phillies are obviously especially willing to throw their financial heft into acquisition efforts. That may not be possible for quite a few other teams — even traditional big spenders have their limits and are facing luxury tax concerns — and opens up many creative possibilities. Perhaps a rental target or controllable starter could be packaged with a more expensive (albeit potentially still useful) player to reduce the prospect burden. Or the Philadelphia org can simply focus in on the higher-priced segment of the market as things shake out under the pressure of the impending deadline. Plus, while the Phils are seemingly clinging to prospects … who isn’t? There’s plenty of reason to think they can compete with cash — and, more importantly, that it could make bottom-line sense from both a financial and baseball sense to do so. If they fall short in their pursuit of new arms, the Philadelphia front office can sleep easy knowing that it did its best … and, quite possibly, forced the club’s long-term rivals to pony up additional young talent to shut down the 2019 Phils.

Latest On Steve Pearce

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Steve Pearce proved to be a brilliant in-season pickup by the Red Sox a year ago, when they acquired him from the division-rival Blue Jays in late June. Pearce not only put up excellent regular-season production with Boston, but the first baseman dominated during the Fall Classic to earn World Series MVP honors in a five-game victory over the Dodgers. The Red Sox and Pearce could have gone their separate ways then and ended their relationship on a high note, but a couple weeks after the team won its latest title, it re-signed the 36-year-old to a $6.25MM guarantee.

While Boston undoubtedly expected the good times to continue rolling for Pearce in 2019, he has instead trudged through a season defined by underperformance and injuries. After starting the campaign on the shelf because of a strained left calf, Pearce debuted in early April and proceeded to hit a ghastly .180/.245/.258 (29 wRC+) with one home run in 99 plate appearances through May. The Red Sox sent Pearce back to the IL on June 1 with back problems. Pearce hasn’t returned to action since then, owing largely to the posterior ligament knee injury he suffered while on a rehab stint. A month and a half later, he’s still not slated to make his way back to the majors anytime soon, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.

Manager Alex Cora issued an update Thursday on Pearce, saying he’s “just rehabbing” at the team’s complex in Fort Myers, Fla., and not “even close to (being) back.” As of now, Pearce isn’t “participating in many baseball activities” and is only hitting off a tee, Smith writes.

The absences of Pearce and Mitch Moreland (who has taken two at-bats since late May) have thrown a wrench into the plans Boston had at first base entering the season. The righty-swinging Pearce and the left-handed Moreland were supposed to be the Red Sox’s solution at the position. Rookie Michael Chavis, who had been at second base, has instead emerged as the team’s starter at first with Pearce and Moreland unavailable. Meanwhile, Brock Holt and Marco Hernandez have taken the reins at second, which played a part in the Red Sox’s decision to to designate struggling veteran Eduardo Nunez for assignment this week. Moreland’s due back soon, Smith notes, though it’s not yet clear how the Red Sox will dole out playing time at first and second when he returns.

How Good Is Shane Greene?

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With the Tigers mired in a rebuild and closer Shane Greene in his second-last year of team control, the right-hander ranks as one of baseball’s most obvious trade candidates heading into the July 31 deadline. While little has gone right this year for Detroit, whose 29-62 record stands as the game’s second worst, Greene has been one of the team’s few bright lights. That’s especially encouraging for the Tigers considering they may be on the verge of dealing the All-Star to a contender.

A Tiger since they acquired him from the Yankees in a noteworthy three-team trade entering the 2015 season, Greene’s tenure in the Motor City has been a mixed bag. He was subpar in his first year with the Tigers while mostly working as a starter, and has proved inconsistent as a reliever since then. Greene’s career has continued its up-and-down trajectory this season, but 2019 has checked in on the overwhelmingly positive side in terms of results. The 30-year-old owns a near-flawless 1.06 ERA in 34 innings, during which he has converted 22 of 24 saves. Greene has racked up those numbers on a reasonable $4MM salary, which should only add to his appeal for reliever-needy contenders.

Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported last week that interested clubs view Greene as more a setup man than a closer, despite the success he has enjoyed putting a bow on rare Detroit wins this year.

The question is: Would an acquiring team be getting a real difference-maker in Greene? His ERA says yes, as do Greene’s 9.26 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, career-high 53.4 percent groundball rate and improved swinging-strike and contact rates. Furthermore, thanks in part to a personal-best 15.2 percent infield fly mark, Greene’s hard-contact rate against has tumbled from 37.5 percent last year to 27.3 this season. According to FanGraphs, just 11 relievers have yielded a lower hard-hit percentage than Greene.

Statcast only places Greene in the league’s 49th percentile in the hard-hit department, though it assigns him far better reviews in the expected slugging percentage (67th), expected weighted on-base average (80th) and expected batting average (86th) categories. It also indicates Greene has made changes to his pitch mix compared to last year, having upped his cutter usage by almost 6 percent and thrown his slider 4 percent less. Greene’s slider hasn’t produced poor results, but his cutter and his main pitch – a sinker – have been particularly tough on opposing hitters. Thus far, they’ve managed sub-.200 wOBAs against the two. Those offerings have helped Greene stymie same-handed batters, who have logged a pitiful .170 wOBA against him, and also keep lefties at bay (.271).

As effective as Greene has been in 2019, there are some red flags accompanying his performance. For one, his velocity isn’t quite where it was in 2018. Beyond that, it appears Greene has benefited greatly from luck. ERA estimators FIP (3.66), xFIP (4.04) and SIERA (3.62) paint Greene as something closer to a useful reliever than a a true shutdown option, and the .179 batting average on balls in play he has surrendered to opposing hitters likely won’t hold. The number’s a whopping 125 points below Greene’s career norm (.304). Allowing less impactful contact has helped Greene sustain that figure to this point, granted, but it’s nevertheless a good bet to climb as the season progresses. Likewise, Greene’s 86.1 percent strand rate – which is a lofty 17-plus points higher than his usual (69.0) – may regress toward his lifetime mean over the next couple months. Plus, although Greene’s aforementioned xwOBA (.282) is among the league’s best, it’s still 66 points higher than the real wOBA he has given up (.216).

It’s clear there are no shortage of reasons for optimism and pessimism in regards to Greene’s 2019 output. It’s also obvious Greene’s a capable major league reliever, though, and with another year of arbitration control left, he’ll be in demand around the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Notes: Trades, Nimmo, O’Rourke

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The latest on the Mets….

  • The Mets entered the day with a 44-51 record, they’re still only five games out of a wild card spot in the congested National League.  With this in mind, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman suggests that if the team isn’t going to really blow things up by dealing Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom, they might as well hang onto other veteran trade chips like Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, and Jason Vargas (none of whom are likely to generate much in the way of a return at the deadline, with Wheeler’s value in question due to injury) to try and contend down the stretch.  With so much parity in the NL, “why not just play this out, rather than performing a fan-angering salary dump for minimal prospect return?” Sherman asks.
  • Brandon Nimmo is able to resume some baseball activities after the Mets shut him down last month, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (Twitter link).  While Nimmo probably won’t start a rehab assignment “until August at the earliest,” it’s still a positive step forward given that Nimmo has been suffering from a bulging cervical disc in his neck.  It would seem like there’s at least some chance Nimmo gets back onto the field this season, though the Mets will obviously be careful with the outfielder given the delicate nature of the injury.
  • Ryan O’Rourke was designated for assignment by the Mets in late June, and learned about the move in unfortunate fashion, Syracuse.com’s Lindsay Kramer writes.  O’Rourke wasn’t told about the transaction by a coach or staff member, but rather via Twitter after a teammate showed him the news prior to a game.  The left-hander ended up remaining in the organization at Triple-A Syracuse after being outrighted off the 40-man roster in late June, though O’Rourke took advantage of his brief hiatus in a unique manner.  He ended up playing for Team Ireland in the qualifying rounds of the 2019 European Baseball Championship, appearing in two games for his grandfather’s home country.   “I was so happy. It was one of the better experiences in baseball of my entire life….I’m not representing myself, I’m representing my parents, my grandparents. I’m representing a country. I’ve never represented a country before when I played so it was really cool,” O’Rourke said.

Washington’s Yan Gomes Acquisition Isn’t Working Out

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The Nationals were one of eight teams whose catchers posted a sub-replacement fWAR in 2018, which led general manager Mike Rizzo to make over the position entering this season. Rizzo said goodbye to Matt Wieters and Pedro Severino, the Nationals’ primary catchers last year, and brought in Kurt Suzuki in free agency and Yan Gomes in a trade with the Indians. Both pickups looked fine on paper, and Suzuki has played pretty well through the first four months into the season. Gomes, on the other hand, has been stunningly bad.

Set to turn 32 this Friday, Gomes was a valuable backstop in Cleveland, where he totaled 13.7 fWAR from 2013-18. But Gomes has taken massive steps back in D.C., where he has accounted for minus-0.2 fWAR and mustered an unsightly .202/.298/.290 batting line with three home runs in 208 plate appearances. Gomes’ 54 wRC+ is barely more than half the 101 he managed last year with the Tribe, and his .087 ISO ranks ninth worst in the majors among 262 hitters who have amassed at least 200 trips to the plate.

To make matters worse, Gomes hasn’t been the same caliber of defender he was just a year ago, when he ranked as one of Baseball Prospectus’ premier catchers (including in the pitch-framing department). Although Gomes has thrown out a strong 36 percent of would-be base stealers – up from 29 percent in 2018 – BP regards the Washington version as a below-average backstop and a subpar framer. Meanwhile, Statcast only puts Gomes’ in the majors’ 36th percentile when it comes to stealing strikes.

Statcast also thinks little of Gomes’ offense, placing him in the 26th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, expected batting average and expected weighted-on base average. There isn’t a huge difference between Gomes’ xwOBA (.276) and real wOBA (.261), which suggests a major rebound isn’t coming at the plate. FanGraphs offers even more bad news, noting Gomes’ hard-hit percentage (25.2) has dropped exactly 18 points since 2018 and ranks third last in the majors. Gomes is hitting far more ground balls and far fewer line drives than he did a year ago, which predictably hasn’t been a recipe for success.

If you’re holding out for encouraging signs, there are a few, starting with Gomes’ K/BB ratio. He has struck out in 23.1 percent of plate appearances, down from 25.8 percent or more in each of the previous four seasons. Moreover, Gomes’ walk rate, 10.1 percent, is a career best and almost doubles his lifetime mark (5.4). He’s also swinging and missing less than he has in recent years and making much more out-of-zone contact than ever. And Gomes’ .258 batting average on balls in play, a 37-point decrease from his lifetime figure (.295), indicates he has dealt with some poor fortune this year.

Even if Gomes’ BABIP does normalize as the season goes on, odds are the Nationals aren’t going to get the 2018 All-Star version they wanted. To this point, Gomes has surprisingly been a less valuable player than right-hander Jefry Rodriguez, whom the Nationals traded to the Indians for him and who hasn’t exactly been a world-beater in his own right. The Nats also parted with outfield prospect Daniel Johnson, a 24-year-old who has notched quality numbers in his first Triple-A action this season, and young infielder Andruw Monasterio.

Waving goodbye to Rodriguez, Johnson and Monasterio to acquire Gomes was an understandable decision for Washington at the time, but the move hasn’t yielded dividends thus far for the playoff hopefuls. Unless Gomes revisits his prior form during the final couple months of the campaign, the Nationals may buy him out in the offseason in lieu of exercising a $9MM club option for 2020.

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