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Checking In On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent Predictions

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At the beginning of each offseason, MLBTR publishes a list of the top 50 free agents on the board by projected earning power. It has only been a month and a half since this winter’s top 50 hit the site, but little did we know then that this offseason would move at such a rapid pace. We’ve already seen more than half of the members of this year’s list (27 players), including four of the top five, either sign new contracts or accept qualifying offers. With that said, let’s check in on how MLBTR has fared with its predictions thus far…

1. Gerrit Cole, SP – Predicted: Eight years, $256MM. Signed: Nine years, $324MM.

2. Anthony Rendon, 3B – Predicted: Seven years, $235MM. Signed: Seven years, $245MM.

3. Stephen Strasburg, SP – Predicted: Six years, $180MM. Signed: Seven years, $245MM.

4. Zack Wheeler, SP – Predicted: Five years, $100MM. Signed: Five years, $118MM.

6. Madison Bumgarner, SP – Predicted: Four years, $72MM. Signed: Five years, $85MM.

7. Yasmani Grandal, C – Predicted: Four years, $68MM. Signed: Four years, $73MM.

10. Jake Odorizzi, SP – Predicted: Three years, $51MM. Accepted $17.8MM qualifying offer.

12. Didi Gregorius, SS – Predicted: Three years, $42MM. Signed: One year, $14MM.

13. Will Smith, RP – Predicted: Three years, $42MM. Signed: Three years, $40MM.

15. Cole Hamels, SP – Predicted: Two years, $30MM. Signed: One year, $18MM.

16. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH – Predicted: Two years, $28MM. Accepted $17.8MM qualifying offer and then signed for three years, $50MM.

17. Michael Pineda, SP – Predicted: Two years, $22MM. Signed: Two years, $20MM.

18. Mike Moustakas, INF – Predicted: Two years, $20MM. Signed: Four years, $64MM.

19. Kyle Gibson, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: Three years, $30MM.

20. Tanner Roark, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: Two years, $24MM.

21. Julio Teheran, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: One year, $9MM.

23. Drew Pomeranz, RP – Predicted: Two years, $16MM. Signed: Four years, $34MM.

24. Wade Miley, SP – Predicted: Two years, $16MM. Signed: Two years, $15MM.

26. Travis d’Arnaud, C – Predicted: Two years, $14MM. Signed: Two years, $16MM.

27. Chris Martin, RP – Predicted: Two years, $14MM. Signed: Two years, $14MM.

29. Avisail Garcia, OF – Predicted: Two years, $12MM. Signed: Two years, $20MM.

30. Howie Kendrick, INF – Predicted: Two years, $12MM. Signed: One year, $6.25MM.

31. Rick Porcello, SP – Predicted: One year, $11MM. Signed: One year, $10MM.

32. Brett Gardner, OF – Predicted: One year, $10MM. Signed: One year, $12.5MM.

40. Adam Wainwright, SP – Predicted: One year, $8MM. Signed: One year, $5MM.

42. Josh Lindblom, SP – Predicted: Two years, $8MM. Signed: Three years, $9.125MM.

47. Michael Wacha, SP – Predicted: One year, $6MM. Signed: One year, $3MM.

Total – Predicted: $1,327,000,000. Signed: $1,521,675,000.

A few things stand out here. First of all, special thanks to Braves reliever Chris Martin for making us look good by signing for the exact amount we said he’d receive. In the aggregate, though, we were obviously too conservative with this year’s estimates. However, in our defense, did anyone foresee such a spending bonanza this offseason?

When MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote this same piece a year ago, only one top five free agent and just 16 out of 50 had signed or agreed to take the qualifying offer. Furthermore, at that point, MLBTR’s projections were actually $20MM above the amount of money that had been handed out. Historic contracts worth $300MM or more were later given to outfielder Bryce Harper (Phillies) and infielder Manny Machado (Padres), the two highest-rated free agents available, but the MLBPA was nonetheless frustrated by the game’s second straight glacial offseason.

As a result of the union’s discontentment, speculation grew in regards to a potential work stoppage when the current collective bargaining agreement expires in December 2021. Perhaps that will still happen, but executive director Tony Clark & Co. have to be much more pleased with how this offseason has unfolded in comparison to the previous couple. Regardless, judging by the billions that teams have awarded to free agents in under two months, it’s clear there is still plenty of money to go around in Major League Baseball.

10 Relatively Youthful Bounceback Pitching Targets

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Much of the heavy lifting has been done in free agency. But there are still a few major players, a host of solid veterans, and no shortage of intriguing reclamation projects left on the open market. Here, we’ll look at a few available hurlers who have previously established significant MLB ceilings and are only entering their age-30 or younger seasons … albeit with significant injury histories that have altered their career trajectories.

We’ll go youngest to oldest:

Edubray Ramos: The still-youthful hurler — he celebrated his 27th birthday just yesterday — endured a highly disappointing 2019 season, struggling through shoulder problems and ultimately throwing only 15 MLB innings. But he was quite effective in 2018 and could be an interesting bounceback candidate after getting some rest over the offseason (though he is pitching in Venezuelan winter ball).

Taijuan Walker: Walker worked back from multiple arm injuries, only to end up as a surprising non-tender from the Diamondbacks. It’s certainly notable that his own club wasn’t convinced, but that won’t stop others from reaching their own risk/benefit assessments. Walker threw 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball in his last full season, 2017. In his brief return to the bigs in 2019, Walker was already exhibiting most of his prior velocity and spin rate, so there’s reason to hope the physical tools are still intact.

Aaron Sanchez: It has long been a rollercoaster for the other 27-year-old starter on this list. He has battled through with finger injuries, then showed flashes in 2019 before going down to shoulder surgery. That procedure made it inevitable that he’d be non-tendered by the Astros, but the talent that led the Houston organization to take a shot will surely still intrigue rival organizations.

Alex Wood: He was held up to open the 2019 season and struggled with the long ball when he finally did appear for the Reds, but the southpaw did make it back to the bump. He showed typical velocity, swinging-strike, and K/BB numbers in his seven-start stint to finish out the year. Wood has thrown 839 innings of 3.40 ERA ball in his career, with peripherals that largely match, so don’t sleep on his upside.

Arodys Vizcaino: Over 2017-18, Vizcaino threw 95 2/3 innings of 2.54 ERA ball. The Viz Kid way outperformed his peripherals in doing so, but has always had swing-and-miss stuff. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll bounce back from shoulder surgery, and he was hardly a perfect pitcher beforehand, but Vizcaino remains an interesting player to watch.

Shelby Miller: Okay, so Miller is going to have to bounce waaaay back if he’s to return to effectiveness. Since the fateful trade that sent him from the Braves to the Diamondbacks after the 2015 season, he has thrown just 183 innings of 6.89 ERA ball. Miller fell far short of a comeback last year with the Rangers, but did show 95 mph heat and is still only 29 years of age.

Jerad Eickhoff: Quite effective through the first forty starts of his MLB career, Eickhoff took a step back in 2017 and then ran into an injury wall. He made it back to the mound for the ’19 campaign but was only good for a 5.71 ERA in 58 1/3 innings. Eickhoff will need to regain some arm speed and figure out how to adapt to a longball-lofting set of opposing hitters.

Danny Salazar: Thirty in January, Salazar remains an intriguing talent. He has exhibited plenty of strikeout ability and found no small amount of success in the majors, but hasn’t yet shown he can find his way back from health issues. It’s unclear as yet what course his career will take, but the upside is tremendous.

Tony Cingrani: Cingrani hasn’t pitched a full season since 2016 and didn’t throw a pitch in the Majors in 2019 due to shoulder surgery. But looking at what the 30-year-old lefty did in parts of two seasons after being traded from Cincinnati to Los Angeles is eye-opening. Cingrani faced 172 hitters as a Dodger and struck out 64 of them (37.2 percent) while walking only 12 (6.9 percent). His swinging-strike rate in L.A. topped 14 percent. Considering the left-handed relief market was thin to begin the offseason and is now largely devoid of proven options, he’s a sensible buy-low target.

Drew Smyly: In addition to being one of those guys who’s younger than you thought every time you look, Smyly was also probably better at his peak than many fully realized. Times have been tougher of late, as he missed all of the ’17 and ’18 seasons and had a brutal run to open the 2019 campaign with the Rangers. But he finished on a better streak with the Phillies after fiddling with his pitch mix, posting a 4.45 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in a dozen starts. The velo and swinging-strike numbers are right back where they used to be. Smyly is a sneaky interesting target.

Reds Sign David Carpenter

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The Reds have agreed to a deal with veteran reliever David Carpenter, according to the social media accounts of Cincinnati pitching coordinator Kyle Boddy and Carpenter himself. It’s a minors deal with an invite to MLB camp.

Carpenter didn’t exactly regain his former glory last year with the Rangers. But he did make it up for four MLB appearances — his first since way back in 2015. And Carpenter spun 38 2/3 innings of 1.63 ERA ball with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 at Triple-A.

It seems the righty has been back at work at the Boddy-founded Driveline Baseball this winter. (Here’s a video link on Twitter if you’d like to look for yourself.) We’ll see whether he can crack the Reds roster in camp, but moving back towards his once-customary 96 mph heat would surely help.

Ian Kinsler Announces Retirement

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Padres second baseman Ian Kinsler has announced his retirement, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter; full article via subscription link). He’ll move into the San Diego front office as an adviser.

Precisely what will happen to the $4.25MM Kinsler is owed under the contract he inked last winter remains to be seen. That will be subject to negotiations between the team and its now-former player.

Kinsler, 37, says he simply decided it was “time to move on.” He wraps up a 14-year career with borderline Hall-of-Fame credentials. He tallied a hefty 57.2 rWAR in his career, tied for 140th among all MLB players, and logged overall statistics that put him ahead of some Hall-worthy second baggers. Now begins a five-year waiting period to see whether Kinsler will gain traction among voters.

Though it seems unlikely he’ll command a plaque in Cooperstown, Kinsler turned in an undeniably outstanding career — all the more impressive considering he was a 17th-round draft pick. He was a perennially above-average hitter who excelled in the field and on the basepaths. Kinsler finishes things up just one hit shy of the 2k barrier. Over 8,299 trips to the plate in the majors, he slashed .269/.337/.440 with 257 home runs and 243 stolen bases.

Kinsler will be remembered most for his eight-year run with the Rangers. While that tenure ended with some acrimony when Kinsler was dealt to the Tigers, he thanked the organization in his comments to Rosenthal. Kinsler ended up having a productive, four-year stint in Detroit before rounding out his career with brief stops with the Angels, Red Sox, and Friars. Kinsler picked up a ring with the 2018 Red Sox.

Of more immediate concern is the impact on the Padres roster. Kinsler wasn’t clogging up a ton of payroll space but would’ve occupied an active roster spot and commanded a decent amount of playing time. Now, the path is cleared all the more for recently acquired second baseman Jurickson Profar, who’ll presumably be supplemented by Greg Garcia at second. The Friars have an additional slot and some added financial flexibility to work with in structuring their preferred alignment.

Kinsler hadn’t been in the form he or the team hoped when he signed on this time last year. He managed only a .217/.278/.368 batting line in 281 plate appearances before his season was cut short owing to a herniated cervical disk. Kinsler says that malady also influenced his decision to call it quits. Though he wasn’t able to play to his typical standard or log his 2,000th hit in 2019, Kinsler did make his first and only appearance on the MLB mound, turning in a scoreless frame.

It seems that Kinsler is already preparing for the next chapter in his personal and professional life. MLBTR congratulates him on an outstanding career and extends its best wishes for the future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

White Sox To Sign Gio Gonzalez

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DECEMBER 20: Gonzalez is slated to receive a $5MM guarantee, per James Fegan of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll be paid $4.5MM for the coming season, with $1MM in incentives, before the club decides between a $7MM option and $500K buyout.

DECEMBER 19: The White Sox are in agreement with left-hander Gio Gonzalez, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link) was the first to break the news that Gonzalez and the Sox were nearing a contract.  Gonzalez is represented by CAA Sports.

Gonzalez represents Chicago’s first major pitching acquisition of the offseason, after the Sox were widely expected to target rotation help.  While the White Sox have thus far been linked to several big name hurlers on the free agent and trade fronts, the 34-year-old Gonzalez is a less-heralded veteran who still offers some significant upside to the 2020 staff.

Gonzalez was actually drafted by the White Sox (38th overall) back in 2004 but never played for the team, as he was sent to the Phillies as a player to be named later in the November 2005 deal that brought Jim Thome to the Windy City.  Over 1901 1/3 career innings with the A’s, Nationals, and Brewers, Gonzalez has established himself as a usually-durable starter who can miss bats (8.6 K/9), limit free passes (3.8 BB/9), keep the ball on the ground (47.1% grounder rate), and limit home run damage (0.8 HR/9).

Gonzalez came close to matching all of these career numbers in 2019, and his 3.50 ERA over 87 1/3 innings with Milwaukee also fell near his 3.68 career ERA.  The big outlier, however, was the lack of innings, as Gonzalez spent almost two months on the injured list due to a dead arm.  The southpaw already got off to an abbreviated start to the 2019 campaign since he didn’t sign until March 19 (a minor league deal with the Yankees), and missed much of Spring Training rather than going through a normal ramp-up process to Opening Day.

With a full offseason to prepare, Gonzalez could very well return to his normal self next year, which would be a nice boost to a young White Sox rotation.  Ace Lucas Giolito is the only projected 2020 rotation member coming off a quality season, as Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level, with Lopez taking a step back after a promising 2018.  Gonzalez will now join that trio as Chicago’s starting four, with Dylan Covey, and veteran swingman Ross Detwiler in line to compete for the fifth starter’s job.  Michael Kopech is also expected to be in the mix as he returns from undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2018.

It isn’t quite yet the pitching staff that you would expect from a contending team, which is why the White Sox are likely to keep up their efforts to acquire more front-of-the-rotation help.  The Sox have been linked to such names as Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, and David Price in recent days, though came up in efforts to sign Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Jordan Lyles, and Cole Hamels.

Cubs Sign Ryan Tepera

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The Cubs have struck a deal with reliever Ryan Tepera, as first reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It comes with a 40-man roster spot, though Tepera will play on a split arrangement. He’ll earn at a $900K rate in the majors and $300K in the minors.

Tepera, 32, was an effective inning for a nice stretch for the Blue Jays. But he ran into trouble in 2019, when he managed only 21 2/3 innings of 4.98 ERA ball. Long capable of striking out about a batter per inning, Tepera managed a meager 5.8 K/9 in the just-completed campaign. And he succumbed to the long ball malaise that afflicted so many other pitchers, coughing up five in 21 2/3 innings.

It’s a nice opportunity for the Cubs to seek value, though whether Tepera can bounce back may depend upon the question whether he can move past the elbow issues that plagued him in 2019. Tepera lost around 1.5 mph in average fastball velocity as compared to his ’18 numbers, with opposing hitters making contact on pitches in the zone at a 91.1% rate despite typically sitting in the low-eighties. More promisingly, Tepera was still able to generate a 12.6% swinging-strike rate and induce batters to chase on 37.3% of his pitches out of the zone.

Tigers Sign Zack Godley

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The Tigers announced that they have signed righty Zack Godley. He’ll receive a minor-league deal with an invitation to participate in MLB camp.

There’s a $1.5MM salary if Godley can crack the roster, with another $1.5MM in available incentives, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. Godley also receives a March 23rd opt-out date to force the Tigers’ hand. If all goes well Godley can elect free agency at season’s end rather than being subject to the arbitration process.

Godley looks to be an intriguing buy-low candidate for the Detroit organization. He has at times demonstrated an intriguing blend of skills that could make him quite a valuable starter. But more recent struggles forced the 29-year-old into a make-good, minor-league arrangement.

Last year, Godley limped through 92 innings of 5.97 ERA pitching, generating only 6.9 K/9 to go with 4.1 BB/9 and a 43.0% groundball rate. That was a far cry from his excellent 2017 season, when he ran up 155 frames of 3.37 ERA ball while striking out 9.6 and walking only 3.1 per nine and generating grounders at a hefty 55.3% rate. Godley wasn’t quite as effective in 2018 but still carried sub-4.00 FIP and xFIP numbers.

Godley has been hampered of late by a loss of fastball velocity, though it did trend up over the course of the season. He also increasingly experimented late in the ’19 campaign with abandoning his frequently used curve in favor of his cutter. Whether he’s already on track or still needs to find the right tweak, Godley will have to find a way to reverse the trends. If he can return to generating a combination of a 13+% swinging-strike rate and 50+% groundball rate, as he did in 2017, he could become a nice trade chip. If not, the Tigers will at least hope Godley can fill some innings in a respectable manner.

Red Sox Claim Chris Mazza

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The Red Sox have claimed righty Chris Mazza off waivers from the Mets, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported (via Twitter). Mazza had recently been designated for assignment.

Though Mazza is already thirty years of age and has made just nine appearances in the majors, he obviously did something to catch the eye of the Boston front office. He allowed ten earned runs with a ho-hum 11:5 K/BB ratio in his first 16 1/3 frames in the majors, hitting four of the 74 batters he faced with errant pitches along the way.

While the early showing didn’t necessarily inspire confidence, the Red Sox were surely more favorably impressed by Mazza’s work at Triple-A. Through 76 innings in the tough International League, he worked to a 3.67 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 58.0% groundball rate. Mazza has always generated a good number of worm burners. He has also long been relatively hard to take out of the park — a particularly notable statistical history in this day and age. In 2019, Mazza allowed 0.71 home runs per nine at Triple-A and didn’t surrender a single dinger in the majors.

Red Sox Announce Eight Minor League Signings

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The Red Sox on Friday announced an octet of minor league signings, revealing that they’ve added catcher Jett Bandy; outfielder John Andreoli; left-hander Mike Kickham; corner infielder Jantzen Witte; first baseman/outfielder Nick Longhi; and right-handers R.J. Alvarez, Domingo Tapia and Robinson Leyer as non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Each of Bandy, Andreoli, Kickham and Alvarez has some MLB experience.

Bandy, 30 in March, was once viewed as a potential long-term option behind the dish for the Angels but hasn’t panned out as such. He’s logged 156 games in the big leagues between Anaheim and Milwaukee, posting a .218/.282/.365 batting line through 492 plate appearances. He’s adept at shutting down the running game (32 percent career caught-stealing rate) but has drawn more questionable marks for his framing efforts.

Andreoli, 29, has only collected 67 plate appearances at the MLB level but has been an on-base machine in Triple-A, where he’s put together a .262/.375/.416 batting line across parts of five seasons (2465 plate appearances). The right-handed-hitting veteran has seen ample time at all three outfield spots since being selected in the 17th round of the 2011 draft by the Cubs.

The 31-year-old Kickham hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2013-14 with the Giants and has allowed more runs than he has completed innings pitched in his short MLB career (37 runs, 30 2/3 innings). But Kickham has displayed strong control and pitched reasonably well in a tough pitchers’ environment with the Marlins’ Triple-A club in each of the past three seasons in addition to a strong winter ball showing in Mexico (1.96 ERA in 41 1/3 innings). He’ll give the club some depth that has experience working as both a starter and a reliever.

Alvarez, 28, hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2015 and was also with Miami’s Triple-A affiliate in 2019. His bottom-line results in parts of five Triple-A seasons don’t immediately jump out, but he’s averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings pitched throughout his minor league career. Control has been an issue as well, however, evidenced by the fact that he’s yielded nearly five walks per nine frames en route to his lifetime 4.22 ERA in Triple-A.

Twins Sign Tyler Clippard

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11:20am: Clippard will be guaranteed $2.75MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets.

11:13am: The Twins announced Friday that they’ve signed veteran reliever Tyler Clippard to a one-year contract. Minnesota also made its previously reported one-year deal (plus a club option) with Sergio Romo official. The Twins’ 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.

Tyler Clippard

Clippard, an Excel Sports client, spent the 2019 season with the division-rival Indians. After missing the early portion of the year due to a pectoral strain, he debuted near the end of April and generally enjoyed a solid year with the Cleveland organization. In 62 innings — including 5 1/3 unsuccessful innings as an opener — Clippard pitched to a 2.90 ERA (3.89 FIP) with 9.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9 and a 31.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Beyond those surface-level numbers, Clippard, 35 in February, excelled in a number of areas. He ranked in the game’s 98th percentile in terms of average exit velocity allowed, at a paltry 85 mph, and his opponents’ hard-hit rate (28.8 percent) landed in the 95th percentile among MLB hurlers. The .260 weighted on-base average (wOBA) to which he held opponents was also among the game’s best and was a near match for the .264 expected wOBA projected by Statcast.

Clippard is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which likely appealed to a Twins club that deploys a strong defensive outfield but carries a more questionable collection of infielders. He was also lights out against left-handed hitters in 2019 (.123/.210/.255) and has generally held lefties within check throughout his career thanks to his plus changeup. Given both the dearth of quality lefty relievers in free agency this winter and the upcoming implementation of a rule that forces relievers to face at least three hitters (or finish the inning), adding a seasoned arm who lacks notable platoon splits is plenty sensible.

Clippard and Romo will slot into a setup corps behind 2019 breakout closer Taylor Rogers. They’ll join righties Trevor May, Tyler Duffey and Zack Littell among the favorites to bridge the gap between the rotation and Rogers as the Twins look to defend their first AL Central crown in nearly a decade.

Minnesota, of course, still needs to add at least one more starting pitcher to its rotation and is reportedly one of the most aggressive teams in pursuit of top free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson. But even with Clippard on board, the team’s projected payroll checks in a bit north of $107MM. That’s $23MM shy of their franchise record — a mark that has seemed like it could edge north this winter anyhow. GM Thad Levine said early in the offseason that the team’s 101-win season could serve as a launching point to approach owner Jim Pohlad “about being a little more aggressive” in terms of payroll in 2020.

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