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Archives for January 2020

Seeking Feedback On Our iPhone/iPad App

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Many of you are regular users of our Trade Rumors iOS app, and in fact you may be reading this post through it.  We launched the Trade Rumors app more than five years ago as a mobile-friendly way to read our articles and set up custom notifications.  While we’ve addressed bugs and added a few features along the way, the app is due for a refresh.

If you’re a current user of the Trade Rumors iOS app and you’ve identified a bug or something that doesn’t seem to work correctly, please go to the Settings icon in the upper right, scroll down to “Feature Requests or Help,” and let us know about the issue.  Over the next few months I aim to address any outstanding bugs we can identify.

If you have a feature request or other feedback about the app, we’d love to hear it.  Current app users can use that same “Feature Requests or Help” option.  Plus any MLBTR reader, whether you currently use the app or not, is welcome to email us about it at traderumorsapp@gmail.com or leave feedback in the comments of this post.  If certain feature requests come up repeatedly, we’ll look into adding those to the Trade Rumors app.  For example, adding a Dark Mode option seems to make sense.  Especially since the original MLBTR website color scheme was basically Dark Mode!

If you’re not using our free Trade Rumors app yet, download it today!

Orioles Designate Eric Hanhold

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The Orioles have designated righty Eric Hanhold for assignment, the club announced. His roster spot goes to infielder Jose Iglesias, whose signing is now official.

Hanhold never made it into an O’s uniform before he lost his 40-man spot, though it’s still possible he’ll end up with the organization if he clears waivers. He was claimed from the Mets in September.

Outside of a three-game MLB stint in 2018, Hanhold has plied his trade in the top reaches of the New York farm since coming over as the player to be named later in the trade that sent Neil Walker to the Brewers. Hanhold pitched to a 3.84 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 63 1/3 upper-minors innings in 2019.

Dodgers To Sign Edubray Ramos

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The Dodgers have a minors deal with righty Edubray Ramos, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It includes an invitation to MLB camp.

Ramos, 27, is a nice buy-low candidate to roll the dice on. He had been an effective hurler for the Phillies but was non-tendered after an injury-riddled 2019 season in which he was ineffective and showed reduced velocity when he was available to pitch.

If all works out, the Dodgers can retain Ramos for years into the future via arbitration. He threw 42 2/3 innings of 2.32 ERA ball with 8.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 for the Phils in 2018.

Nationals Sign Starlin Castro

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JANUARY 7: This deal is now official.

JANUARY 3: The Nationals have a deal with infielder Starlin Castro, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a two-year arrangement, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The deal promises the Magnus Sports client $12MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

Castro will be tasked with handling second base for the defending World Series champs. Fellow free agents Brian Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera handled most of the work at that position last year in D.C.

The Nationals have seen plenty of Castro over the past several seasons, as he has appeared with the division-rival Marlins. He has had ups and downs over the years, but has always showed up — averaging 149 games per season since 2011 — and typically delivered a useful combination of league-average offensive production and average glovework. Poorly graded baserunning has long been a bit of a drag on his overall value.

It’s not an exciting signing, by any stretch, but does check a box for the Nats. And perhaps the club sees reason to hope for a bit more out of Castro. He’s still just 29 years of age and vastly increased his offensive productivity in the second half of the 2019 campaign. In his final 285 plate appearances of the year, he slashed a hefty .302/.334/.558 with 16 long balls. He’s never going to draw many walks, so the question is Castro can continue to make better contact — both harder and higher — and thus maintain a meaningful portion of that second-half power outburst.

Even if Castro enters the season as the presumptive second baseman, he could ultimately move into a more flexible role — especially if top prospect Carter Kieboom forces his way into an everyday role. Castro has plenty of experience on the left side of the infield and could become part of a timeshare at third base if that becomes desirable (whether in the first or second year of the deal). Castro would pair well with a lefty hitter, as he has long been much more dangerous against southpaws.

As things stand, the Nats would rely upon the switch-hitting Wilmer Difo to spell Castro and shortstop Trea Turner. The team could pursue an upgrade over Difo. It might also add a more offensive-oriented player who can spend time at first base. There could be some overlap there, as well. The team’s ultimate moves at third base — Josh Donaldson remains the chief target, with a few major trade candidates also possible — may end up dictating the finishing touches on the bench. Whether or not Ryan Zimmerman ends up returning will also be a factor.

White Sox To Sign Steve Cishek

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The White Sox have reached a deal with free agent reliever Steve Cishek, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). He’ll be guaranteed $6MM in the pact, which per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) includes his 2020 salary and a $750K buyout of a $6.75MM option.

It’s a move that reflects the shifting tides of Chicago’s two sides. Cishek had stabilized the Cubs’ pen for the past two years. With his former team pressing up against its budget ceiling, he’ll cross town to take up a late-inning role with a White Sox organization that is hopeful of a breakout 2020 campaign.

Cishek has sidearmed his way through an awful lot of good innings over ten seasons in the majors. He has worked to a 2.69 ERA in 556 total frames and never once finished a full season with an ERA over 3.58. Having picked up 132 saves along the way, Cishek is no stranger to high-leverage spots.

Can the South Siders expect more of the same? There are conflicting signs. Cishek’s strikeout rate has wavered over time; last year’s 10.5% K%-BB% was a personal low. But he still generated grounders on half of the balls put in play against him, limited the long ball nearly as well as ever (at least compared to the league average), and held opponents to a sub-.250 BABIP for the fourth-straight season. Statcast identified some good fortune (.285 wOBA-against; .313 xwOBA-against) but found that Cishek was elite at limiting hard contact (25.9%) and exit velo (84.5 mph).

It’s ultimately hard to argue with the results, even if they haven’t always quite been supported by the peripherals. Cishek doesn’t throw hard but generates lots of spin. He’s an unconventional pitcher who has proven consistently capable of befuddling MLB hitters. He’s unquestionably better against same-handed hitters, though that’s true of most hurlers.

Cishek may not on the upswing at 33 years of age. But he’s a nice get on a one-year deal. That suits the needs of a White Sox organization that wants to boost its immediate chances without risking too much future payroll space on veteran players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Sign-Stealing Punishment For Astros Expected In Coming Weeks

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It’s widely accepted at this point that the Astros impermissibly utilized technology to steal signs and then conveyed the information gleaned to hitters in the batters’ box during regular-season games. According to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, the subjects of the resulting investigation have copped to the bad acts.

With the investigative work nearing a conclusion, Passan says that commissioner Rob Manfred will likely mete out discipline within the next two weeks. Several notable figures are reportedly potential suspension targets: GM Jeff Luhnow, manager A.J. Hinch, and former bench coach/current Red Sox skipper Alex Cora.

Notably, per the report, players that participated in the elaborate-yet-ham-fisted scheme are not expected to be disciplined. But the team could end up paying a massive fine. There’s no indication yet whether a loss of draft picks or other competitive sanction might be applied. In handing down punishment for improper use of technology in 2017, Manfred promised that such penalties were on the table, saying: “[A]ll 30 Clubs have been notified that future violations of this type will be subject to more serious sanctions, including the possible loss of draft picks.”

It would never be acceptable for the product of baseball — individual contests and the overall regular/post-season championship schedule — to be compromised by teams acting outside of the rules, especially in a scheme as devious and concerted as the one allegedly put into action by the Astros. The stakes are raised yet higher by the fact that MLB is wading into murky waters in the gambling arena. And it probably doesn’t help that the league is currently facing major pushback for its plans to dramatically curtail minor league ball.

It’s a major decision for Manfred, who already watched as the Astros bungled a self-inflicted scandal involving since-fired assistant GM Brandon Taubman just months ago. He’ll certainly need to create precedent that serves as a legitimate deterrent. But doing so with respect to a marquee roster could prove challenging.

The complexities deepen when one considers the potential entanglements. Cora is one major instance. Reporting earlier today implicates the Red Sox in a less-egregious but nevertheless impermissible act of signaling espionage. The skipper could conceivably be at fault in both episodes. The Boston organization may not be alone in its manner of harnessing technology.

Untangling all of this could prove tricky. Andy Martino of SNY.tv even seems to suggest (Twitter link) that the Astros have claimed or could claim that such actions on the part of competitors might justify or at least mitigate their own rule-breaking. A source suggests, rather bizarrely, that the Houston club was simply making up for the fact that it was not able to mis-use its own replay room because it “was far away” from the dugout, unlike most other teams. If this strained logic is any indication of the thinking around the game — not to mention the actual and/or perceived pervasiveness of cheating — then the MLB rules and enforcement regime is badly in need of re-working, beginning with the imposition of clear and effective disincentives relating to this incident.

Red Sox Reportedly Utilized Replay Room To Ascertain Opponents’ Signs In 2018

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The Astros stand accused of utilizing technology to steal catcher signs and then relay them in real-time to batters in the box. While the investigation into that matter continues — we’ve already seen rather convincing documentation of at least some malfeasance — broader scrutiny has unsurprisingly begun.

The 2018 Red Sox team, which followed the Astros as World Series champs, now stand charged of misusing technology. As Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report (subscription link), on the basis of team sources, “at least some players visited the video replay room during games to learn the sign sequence opponents were using.” The behavior is said to have occurred during the regular season but not during the postseason.

The sources that spoke with The Athletic make clear that the Sox’ uniformed personnel made dedicated pursuit of electronic sign-stealing. But the approach was fundamentally different from that allegedly employed by the Astros. The Houston organization is said to have had a team employee watching a live game feed, conveying the pitch type via audio signal (banging on a trash can). In Boston, upon sussing out the signs, the Red Sox would reportedly utilize the information in a time-honored manner: runners reaching second base would look in at the catcher and then deliver the news to the hitter by some visual cue.

In spite of those differences, it seems clear that the Red Sox’ purported action also violated the rules. Per Drellich and Rosenthal, a league memo issued prior to the ’18 campaign provided: “Electronic equipment, including game feeds in the Club replay room and/or video room, may never be used during a game for the purpose of stealing the opposing team’s signs.” That wouldn’t appear to leave much room for interpretation.

Notably, the Boston organization was fined and chastised by commissioner Rob Manfred at the end of the 2017 season for improper utilization of technology. At the time, Manfred indicated that he had received assurances of future compliance from the Sox. The commissioner also provided in a press release:  “[A]ll 30 Clubs have been notified that future violations of this type will be subject to more serious sanctions, including the possible loss of draft picks.”

Marlins Announce Corey Dickerson Signing, Designate Austin Brice

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The Marlins announced today that they have inked outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year deal, as had previously been reported. Righty Austin Brice was designated for assignment to create roster space.

Dickerson is a well-established hitter who can reasonably be expected to turn in above-average work with the bat. He’s best utilized in a platoon capacity but will presumably be given more opportunities against left-handed pitching in Miami than he would’ve received elsewhere. A surprise defensive darling in 2018, Dickerson graded poorly with the glove last year. The Fish will likely be pleased if they receive palatable fielding.

This signing is the clearest indication that the Marlins want to begin moving in a positive direction in the win/loss column. There’s no real hope of a 2020 surprise, as the organization still lags in present-day MLB ability, but there’s obviously a belief that its worth making some targeted investments — and, perhaps, that Dickerson could be a part of a charge in 2021.

At the same time, the Marlins will part with yet another young pitcher. They’ve already designated Tayron Guerrero, Tyler Kinley, and Kyle Keller earlier in the offseason. Every one of those arms landed on another 40-man roster via trade or claim.

There could also be interest from other organizations in the 27-year-old Brice, who has already bounced around a bit. He’s fresh off of his most successful MLB stint yet, having provided the Marlins with 44 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 2019. Brice reduced the usage of his sinker in favor of his curve and four-seamer, resulting in a boost in strikeouts (9.3 K/9) but also a reduction in groundball induction (42.2%). Statcast figures suggest Brice was successfully able to induce poor contact when he did allow it (.292 wOBA vs. .293 xwOBA), but fielding-independent metrics still weren’t sold on the results (4.87 FIP, 4.79 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA) due in no small part to ongoing home run issues (1.41 per nine).

Unfortunately, Brice also dealt with forearm issues that scuttled his season. His current health situation isn’t really known, but it stands to reason that the Marlins were somewhat less than optimistic about its impact on his outlook.

Latest On Rangers’ Roster Plans

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JANUARY 7: The Texas organization has not even met with Castellanos or made him an offer, a team official tells Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. That’s an unusual and rather direct dispute of a simple factual point — i.e., whether or not a meeting has occurred.

The Rangers to hold some interest in Castellanos, per the more recent report, but it’s predicated on utilizing him at first base rather than in the outfield. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News also explored this concept yesterday. It’s said to be possible the club could add both Castellanos and Todd Frazier, with the latter slated primarily for action at third.

Meanwhile, Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels says that the team isn’t focused on adding a center fielder. Joey Gallo isn’t expected to line up there primarily, says Wilson. Rather, it seems Danny Santana will be given a chance to build off of his surprising 2019 showing.

The focus at present, according to Wilson, isn’t necessarily all that splashy. Texas wishes to improve its roster options behind the dish, at first base, and in the relief corps.

JANUARY 6: The Rangers have emerged as a finalist to sign free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. The two sides had a recent meeting that went well, according to Morosi.

The soon-to-be 27-year-old Castellanos came into the offseason as one of the best position players on the open market. The top of the free-agent list has rapidly emptied out since then, leaving Castellanos among the few players on the board with significant earning power. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $58MM payday for Castellanos when free agency commenced, but with many FAs raking in more money than expected this offseason, that could prove to be a light projection in his case.

Along with the Rangers – who have been active in upgrading their pitching staff but haven’t done much to better their offense – the White Sox, Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins have been connected to Castellanos in the rumor mill. But the White Sox may be out of the mix after landing outfielder Nomar Mazara (previously a Ranger), re-signing first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu and adding another 1B/DH in Edwin Encarnacion. The Cubs – with whom Castellanos finished last season after a trade with the Tigers – aren’t in big-spending mode, which could cost them Castellanos. The Diamondbacks addressed their corner outfield by signing Kole Calhoun, meanwhile, and the Marlins did so when they picked up Corey Dickerson.

All things considered, it’s not surprising the Rangers appear to be among the front-runners for Castellanos. The club’s rotation looks a lot better now that Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles are aboard, but its offense has seemingly taken a step back with Mazara (who was disappointing as a Ranger, granted) and free agent Hunter Pence gone. Based on his track record at the plate over the past few seasons, Castellanos would help Texas’ cause. But whether Castellanos would play passable defense is always in question, and his shortcomings in the field are a key reason he’s still available.

Arbitration Breakdown: Cody Bellinger

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Cody Bellinger seeks to break the record for first-time eligible players in 2020, after putting up an MVP campaign in his platform season to tack onto a resume that already has a Rookie of the Year award. Bellinger hit 47 home runs and knocked in 115, while batting .305 and stealing 15 bases through 661 plate appearances. For his career, that gives Bellinger 111 HR, 288 RBI, a .278 average, and 39 steals in 1841 plate appearances. That immediately puts him in rarified air.

In recent memory, only three players have entered arbitration for the first-time with both an ROY and an MVP award. Ryan Howard smashed the first-time eligible arbitration record way back in 2008 with these accomplishments. He had also hit 47 home runs in his platform season, but had batted only .268 (although he did knock in 136 runs). His 129 career home runs and 353 career RBI, plus his .291 career average, led to a $10MM salary after he beat the Phillies in arbitration (who had filed for only $7MM).

It took five more years for another player to reach arbitration with an ROY and MVP, and that was Buster Posey. Posey had only hit 24 HR in his platform year though, and 46 in his career, and ended up with a less remarkable $8MM.

It was not until Kris Bryant again accomplished that combination in 2018 that we saw Ryan Howard’s decade-old record fall as Bryant earned $10.85MM. Bryant is the most obvious comparable for Bellinger here. Bryant had a .295/29/73 platform in 665 PA, which is definitely weaker than Bellinger’s .305/47/115 in 661 PA—especially because Bellinger stole 15 bases to Bryant’s seven. For career numbers, Bryant also fell short in HR (94 versus 111), RBI (274 versus 288), and SB (28 versus 39), but he did have a .288 average to Bellinger’s .278. Of course, batting average has historically been far less important than power numbers for arbitration cases, so it stands to reason Bellinger should top Bryant’s $10.85MM. My model estimates $11.6MM, which may be on the low side.

Finding other comparable players is quite challenging. Two other players have received eight figure salaries in their first year of eligibility. Mookie Betts in 2018 had a .264/24/102 platform year, but had 26 stolen bases that season as well as a career .292/78/310 line and 80 total stolen bases. He got $10.55MM, and Bellinger’s case also looks favorable to his. Last year, Francisco Lindor had a platform .277/38/92 campaign with 25 SB, along with .288/98/310 career along with 71 SB. Lindor received $10.55MM. Again, Bellinger’s case compares favorably.

Overall, this seems likely to just be a matter of how much Bellinger will break Bryant’s record by. I think the floor is probably the $850K difference that the model projects (at $11.6MM), and I could easily see Bellinger landing north of $12MM or perhaps even $13MM.

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