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Archives for January 2020

Latest On Josh Donaldson’s Market

By Jeff Todd | January 7, 2020 at 7:52pm CDT

7:52pm: MLB.com’s Mark Bowman looks at the situation from the Braves’ standpoint, reporting that there’s some doubt that the Braves have even “come close” to making the top offer to Donaldson.

Similarly, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North radio in Minneapolis reported today that while the Twins are still in the mix and have made a four-year offer, they’re not believed to be close to Donaldson’s reported $110MM asking price, either (Twitter links). The Twins don’t have the largest offer on the table, per Wolfson, who suggests that Minnesota could be in the $85MM range while cautioning that they’ve not yet been asked for a final offer. The two sides remain in “near-daily” communication.

That pair of reports at least implies that the Nationals might have made the biggest offer, although that’s strictly reading between the lines in speculative fashion. It’s worth noting, of course, that the Nationals have a tendency to bake deferred money into their contract offers, which weighs down the present-day value of said offers. Plus, with their recent bevy of infield signings, there’s a bit less urgency to add another option to the pile — even if Donaldson is easily the best of the bunch.

Today’s reports on Donaldson at least cast some doubt as to just how close — if at all — he’ll be able to get to his reported $110MM asking price. It’s clear that there are multiple staring contests underway at present, and the revelation that Donaldson’s camp hasn’t asked for final offers doesn’t exactly suggest that a resolution is imminent.

7:00am: Even after a run of free agent additions that plug quite a few holes with veteran players, the Nationals do not appear to be shutting the door on top remaining open market star Josh Donaldson — at least, not entirely. The Nats could still make the third baseman fit, but evidently won’t be the team that ups its bid to land him.

After agreeing to terms with Howie Kendrick, Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Eric Thames, and with youngster Carter Kieboom waiting in the wings, the Nats could in theory have bailed out of the Donaldson auction altogether. But that assembly of pieces hardly makes up for the departure of Anthony Rendon. And the D.C. organization surely doesn’t wish to allow the division-rival Braves a chance at retaining Donaldson without paying full price (and then some) to do so.

After yesterday’s reported deal with Thames, the Nationals remain “in the picture,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter). Indeed, the club is “leaving [its] offer on [the] table,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter. Precisely how that offer matches up to others isn’t known with specificity — reports had suggested the Nats, Braves, and Twins were in the same $100MM ballpark — but it surely helps Donaldson’s cause to keep that avenue open.

Donaldson had been said to be dangling bait to interested teams, indicating he’d sign with the first club to meet an asking price in the vicinity of $110MM. Unless something changes, it seems the Nats won’t take the hook. It remains to be seen whether some other team will. Likewise, unless the defending World Series champs withdraw their bid, the Braves, Twins, and any other pursuers (Dodgers? Rangers? mystery team(s)?) will presumably need to meet or top that number to get a deal done.

There certainly may be some momentum towards a return to Atlanta. The Nationals are at minimum preparing to move forward without Donaldson. The Twins’ hopes are said to be dimming. And it’s largely unclear whether any other team has or will engage Donaldon’s reps in earnest. Numerous observers have cast the Braves as favorites, though as ever it’s inadvisable to view free agent matchmaking as a metaphorical horse race or political contest. Market circumstances can turn on a dime.

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Atlanta Braves Minnesota Twins Washington Nationals Josh Donaldson

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Marlins, Ryan Cook Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2020 at 7:02pm CDT

The Marlins and right-hander Ryan Cook are in agreement on a minor league contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). The Excel Sports client would earn $750K upon making the big league roster and could earn an additional $250K worth of incentives to bring the total value of the deal to an even $1MM.

Cook, 32, spent the 2019 season with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but narrowly kept his ERA south of 5.00 and also spent some time with the club’s minor league affiliate. It wasn’t an inspiring season, to be sure, but Cook’s track record nevertheless has its fair share of appeal.

It’s easy to forget that back in 2012, Cook was an All-Star reliever for the Athletics. From 2012-14, he was a vital member of the Oakland relief corps, pitching to a combined 2.60 ERA and a similarly impressive 2.96 FIP. Cook maintained a ground-ball rate north of 46 percent, averaged better than a strikeout per inning and yielded just nine home runs in 190 2/3 innings across that three-year span.

Unfortunately for both Cook and the A’s, injuries began to mount in 2014-15. A forearm strain and shoulder inflammation slowed him over those two seasons, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016. In the five years since the conclusion of that outstanding three-year run, Cook has thrown just 25 2/3 innings at the MLB level — mostly coming with the 2018 Mariners.

The Marlins’ bullpen is anything but settled, which should give Cook a legitimate chance to break camp with the club if he puts together an impressive Spring Training. Drew Steckenrider, Ryne Stanek, Yimi Garcia, Adam Conley, Jarlin Garcia and Jose Urena are all options for manager Don Mattingly in 2020. If Cook can complete his comeback and make it through the season, the Marlins would control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Ryan Cook

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Dodgers Sign Jimmy Nelson

By Jeff Todd | January 7, 2020 at 6:35pm CDT

6:35pm: The Dodgers have announced the signing.

9:45am: The Dodgers have reached a one-year deal with righty Jimmy Nelson, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The contract includes a $1.25MM guarantee and the possibility of greater earnings, including a vesting/mutual option for another season, according to Castillo, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links), and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter links).

Nelson will reportedly be promised just $750K this year. But he’ll earn $1MM in incentives if he makes the Opening Day roster and $500K apiece if he remains on it for 45 and 90 days. Further incentives could also add $1.5MM to Nelson’s 2020 earnings.

As for the option, it will start out as a $2MM club option with a $500K buyout that makes up the remainder of the guaranteed cash. If Nelson throws sixty innings and/or makes forty appearances, it’ll convert to a $5MM mutual option. That price can reach as much as $9MM if Nelson throws 170 frames for Los Angeles in the coming season.

Once a foundational player in Milwaukee, Nelson was non-tendered by the Brewers in December when the club deemed his projected $3.7MM salary too steep. That decision came on the heels of two injury-ruined campaigns.

Nelson did get back on the hill in 2019 after missing the entirety of the prior season, but allowed 17 runs over 22 frames. While he racked up 26 strikeouts in that span but also coughed up 17 walks and four long balls.

It’s hard to know what to expect out of Nelson, who’s now thirty years of age. He exhibited a fairly significant velocity loss but still sat at around 93 mph in 2019. He dove in both first-strike rate (50.5%) and chase rate (23.6%), suggesting some reduction of command, pitch quality, and/or confidence. But Statcast still identified well-above-average spin on Nelson’s pitches.

It will be interesting to watch whether Nelson can return from the shoulder and elbow woes that derailed his career. It’s equally fascinating to see another upside pitching play from a Dodgers organization that has otherwise remained quiet this winter. While the club continues to explore major additions, it has yet to pull off a big strike this winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Jimmy Nelson

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Rangers Working On Deal With Robinson Chirinos

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2020 at 6:28pm CDT

The Rangers and Robinson Chirinos are “inching closer” to an agreement on a reunion, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The news comes less than a week after a report that Chirinos, a client of MDR Sports Management, was nearing a decision.

Chirinos, 35, spent the 2013-18 seasons as the primary catcher for the Rangers but took a one-year, $5.75MM pact with the cross-state Astros last offseason. The Rangers, clearly seeking a defensive upgrade behind the plate, went in a different direction by signing veteran Jeff Mathis to a two-year, $6.25MM deal.

But while Chirinos improved his glovework in Houston and slashed .238/.347/.443 with 17 home runs and a career-high 22 doubles, Mathis turned in the worst season of his career at the plate, mustering just a .158/.209/.224 batting line in 244 plate appearances. Not only did Mathis struggle at the plate, though; he also struggled behind the dish in uncharacteristic fashion. As recently as 2018, no catcher in baseball rated better than Mathis in terms of Defensive Runs Saved (+17) or Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average (+18.4). In 2019, those numbers plummeted to -1 and -2.8, respectively.

Texas still owes Mathis $3MM for the upcoming season after slightly front-loading his contract. However, the Rangers have made a clear shift toward contending in 2020 and  may not feel he’s likely to rebound in his age-37 season. Given that their top in-house alternative, Jose Trevino, posted miserable numbers both in the Majors and in Triple-A, an upgrade is a logical next step toward fielding a more competitive roster now that the team has reshaped its rotation. The Rangers have already acquired Corey Kluber from the Indians and signed both Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles to multi-year contracts, giving them a trio of new starters to pair with holdovers Mike Minor and Lance Lynn.

Other potential areas of focus surely exist, as Texas could add a corner infielder, find another center field option and look to deepen its bullpen (particularly after moving Emmanuel Clase in the Kluber swap). With a projected $146MM payroll that comes in well shy of the $162MM Opening Day mark they averaged from 2016-17, plus a new stadium on the way, it stands to reason that the Rangers have ample payroll capacity to address multiple remaining needs even if they succeed in bringing Chirinos back aboard.

Following the recent agreement between the Angels and Jason Castro, Chirinos stands out as the last starting-caliber option on the free agent market. If things between him and the Rangers ultimately fail to come together, the organization will be left to rely on internal improvement, bring in another rebound candidate or explore the trade market for alternative options.

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Texas Rangers Robinson Chirinos

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Arbitration Breakdown: Mike Clevinger

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2020 at 4:33pm CDT

Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger only started 21 games in 2019, but when he was healthy, he was dominant. Despite being limited to 126 innings, the 29-year-old had a 13-4 record and 2.71 ERA with 169 strikeouts — all numbers that will factor strongly into his arbitration case. In his career, Clevinger already has a 41-21 record and a 3.20 ERA in 500 2/3 innings. My model projects him at $4.5MM the first time through arbitration, but finding comparables is tricky due to his missed time in his platform year.

Mike Clevinger | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

To look for comparables, I focused on a rather narrow scope: first-time eligible pitchers in the past five years who pitched between 75 and 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA in their platform year and who had 35-plus career wins.

Gerrit Cole in 2017 and Kyle Hendricks in 2018 were the only two pitchers to match those specifications. The former got $3.75MM, and the latter got $4.18MM. Both of those pitchers only won seven games in their platform season, however. Cole did have 47 career wins, topping Clevinger’s 41, but his platform ERA of 3.88 is clearly worse than Clevinger’s 2.71. Hendricks is more comparable, with a robust 2.94 career ERA that is similar to Clevinger’s 3.20. Hendricks’ 38-22 record favorably compares to Clevinger’s 41-21 mark as well. Hendricks makes for a pretty good comp, and adding two years of inflation onto his first-time arbitration salary would probably put Clevinger right around the $4.5MM that the model projects for him.

Another potential comparable who had fewer career wins and a weaker platform season, but was otherwise fairly similar, is Jacob deGrom back in 2017. He went 7-8 with a 3.90 ERA in 148 innings in his platform year, but he had a 2.74 career ERA and a 30-22 record with 479 1/3 innings. DeGrom got $3.9MM his first time through arbitration. This is a likely floor for Clevinger—it seems clear that he should safely exceed $4MM.

What is tricky about first-time eligible pitchers is that for more than a decade, they have rarely broken the $4.5MM barrier. Three pitchers did as part of multi-year deals: Tim Lincecum in 2010, Clayton Kershaw in 2012, and Lance Lynn in 2015. However, Kershaw had a Cy Young Award on his resume, and Lincecum had two. Lynn was a unique multi-year deal that was extremely flat (three years, $22MM), so the $7MM attributed to the first year is not really a reliable number on which to base any Clevinger predictions. The only first-time eligible pitcher who signed a one-year deal worth more than $4.5MM was Dallas Keuchel, who landed a $7.25MM salary after earning a Cy Young Award.

All told, when you consider Clevinger being limited to 21 starts in 2019, he seems unlikely to be the one who breaks the $4.5MM barrier that has been so difficult for first-time pitchers to surpass. However, it also seems likely that he should hit Hendricks’ $4.18MM salary — and probably exceed it. Viewed through this lens, Clevinger appears likely to get close to his model-projected salary.

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Arbitration Breakdown Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals Mike Clevinger

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Angels Designate Adalberto Mejia For Assignment

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2020 at 3:56pm CDT

The Angels announced Tuesday that they’ve designated left-hander Adalberto Mejia for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to catcher Jason Castro, whose previously reported one-year deal is now official.

Mejia, incredibly, has been designated for assignment five times in the past five months — including three times by the Angels. The former Top 100 prospect has bounced from the Twins (where he and Castro were teammates), to the Angels, to the Cardinals back to the Angels in a series of summer waiver claims. Mejia cleared waivers when the Halos designated him in August, but he returned to the 40-man roster as a September call-up just a few days later.

The 26-year-old Mejia was unscored upon in 9 1/3 minor league innings across multiple organizations this year but was hit hard in the Majors, logging a 6.61 ERA (4.97 FIP, 5.98 xFIP) with an ugly 30-to-21 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 innings. He did make 21 respectable starts for the Twins in 2017 (4.50 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9) at just 24 years of age, creating some optimism that he could settle in as the fourth starter he’d been projected as in the upper minors. But blister issues and a left wrist injury shortened Mejia’s 2018 season, and he wasn’t able to regain his footing in 2019.

Clubs seeking rotation depth and/or left-handed relief candidates could well take a look at Mejia now that he’s once again available at little to no cost, but he’s also out of minor league options, so he’ll have to break camp with a team or else be designated for assignment for a staggering sixth time in a nine-month span.

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Los Angeles Angels Transactions Adalberto Mejia

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Angels Sign Jason Castro

By Mark Polishuk | January 7, 2020 at 3:55pm CDT

The Angels will have yet another new Opening Day catcher, as they announced Tuesday the signing of veteran backstop Jason Castro to a one-year contract. Castro, an ISE Baseball client, will reportedly be guaranteed $6.85MM before reentering the market next winter.

Jason Castro | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The signing helps Los Angeles upgrade its weakest position from the 2019 season, as Angels catchers (with Jonathan Lucroy, Kevan Smith, and Dustin Garneau had much of the playing time) combined for negative-0.7 bWAR.  While virtually anything would’ve been an improvement over that sub-replacement level total, Castro brings a solid track record of success, with 12 bWAR/14.5 fWAR over the course of his nine seasons in the majors.

Much of that value has come from outstanding pitch-framing, and generally good blocking statistics despite a down year in that category in 2018.  However, last season saw Castro enjoy his best year at the plate since 2013, as Castro hit .232/.332/.435 with 13 home runs over 275 plate appearances for Minnesota.  Though the veteran backstop lost playing time due to Mitch Garver’s big season, it was still a nice bounce-back year for Castro after knee surgery limited him to just 19 games in 2018.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents ranking correctly predicted a deal between Castro (34th on our list) and the Angels, and his one-year, $6.85MM pact topped our two-year/$10MM projection in terms of average annual value, if not in term length.  While it is perhaps understanding that teams were wary of committing multiple years to a 32-year-old catcher with a torn meniscus on his injury history, it is maybe still a bit of a surprise that Castro wasn’t able to get more than one year given the dearth of other catching options on the market.

The Rangers, Rays, Rockies, and Pirates are among the clubs with notable needs behind the plate, and now Robinson Chirinos (who could be close to a deal himself) stands out as the clear top choice remaining.  Should Texas miss out on Chirinos, the Angels will have done well to secure a solid veteran catcher ahead of their AL West rivals.

Castro is the latest notable addition for Angels GM Billy Eppler in a winter that has already seen Anthony Rendon, Julio Teheran, and Dylan Bundy head to Anaheim.  While the Halos are known to still be looking for more rotation help, the addition of an excellent pitch-framer like Castro should also help the staff prevent runs.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter link).

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Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Transactions Jason Castro

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Cardinals, Oscar Hernandez Agree To Minors Deal

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2020 at 3:18pm CDT

The Cardinals have agreed to a minor league contract with catcher Oscar Hernandez, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The former D-backs and Red Sox backstop will head to Major League camp on a non-roster invite.

Hernandez, 26, was the top pick in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft, when the D-backs selected him out of the Rays organization. Touted for his defensive skills behind the dish, Hernandez looked decidedly overmatched in two seasons with Arizona, hitting a combined .167/.239/.262 in a tiny sample of 47 plate appearances. He hasn’t appeared in a big league game since 2016, although he was on the Red Sox’ Major League roster briefly this past season. However, Hernandez was called up as a depth option and designated for assignment without ever appearing in a game for Boston.

In parts of 10 minor league seasons, Hernandez is a .246/.323/.417 hitter — although he’s managed just a .210/.276/.336 output at the Triple-A level. He’s thrown out 42 percent of runners who attempt to steal against him in the minors, though (plus one of two in the Majors), and he routinely draws strong framing marks in the minors.

Matt Wieters was the primary backup to ironman Yadier Molina in 2019 but is currently a free agent. Well-regarded prospect Andrew Knizner is the only other catcher on the Cardinals’ 40-man roster, so Hernandez will add a glove-first depth option.

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St. Louis Cardinals Transactions Oscar Hernandez

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Nationals, Carlos Tocci Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2020 at 2:28pm CDT

2:28pm: Tocci does not currently have a Spring Training invite, Sam Fortier of the Washington Post tweets. It’s possible that the Nats could add him to big league camp at some point, of course, but if not, it seems likely that he’d head straight to Triple-A Fresno.

2:09pm: The Nationals have agreed to a minor league pact with outfielder Carlos Tocci, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The fleet-footed 24-year-old will be in Major League Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

Tocci, once a relatively high-profile international signing by the Phillies, spent the 2018-19 seasons in the Rangers organization after Texas acquired him in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. Selected more for his speed, defense and contact abilities than for his chances of becoming an impact player at the plate, Tocci was hidden on the Rangers’ roster in a limited role throughout the 2018 campaign. He appeared in only 66 games and took just 135 turns at the plate, posting a woeful .225/.271/.283 batting line in that time.

Struggles were somewhat foreseeable, as Tocci had played in just 17 Triple-A games through the 2017 campaign and had long faced questions about a lack of power. But Tocci’s difficulties at the plate continued into the 2019 season in Triple-A, where despite a leaguewide boom in offense, he mustered a paltry .244/.313/.308 batting line (55 wRC+). Scouting reports on Tocci have long touted his plus defensive tools, but he’ll need to make some strides with the bat if he has any hope of establishing himself as viable big league outfielder.

Tocci gives the Nats some additional depth in center field — not that the club is hurting in that regard. Victor Robles, Juan Soto and Adam Eaton are lined up to start once again in 2020, while Michael A. Taylor projects as the primary backup option. Andrew Stevenson gives the Nats another option on the 40-man roster as well, but the organization’s center-field depth in the upper minors is a bit lacking.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Carlos Tocci

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Phillies Sign Ronald Torreyes

By Steve Adams | January 7, 2020 at 1:34pm CDT

The Phillies announced Tuesday that they’ve signed infielder Ronald Torreyes to a minor league contract. The Philadelphia organization also formally confirmed its previously reported minor league signing of catcher Christian Bethancourt. Both players will be in Major League camp this spring.

Torreyes, 27, spent the 2019 season in the Twins organization. He appeared in seven big league games late in the season and tallied 17 plate appearances, including a rare walk-off hit by pitch, but he was otherwise relegated to Triple-A work. In 330 plate appearances with the Twins’ affiliate in Rochester, Torreyes hit .256/.289/.406 with 11 homers, 11 doubles, a triple and two steals.

The deal with Philadelphia will bring about a reunion of sorts with incoming skipper Joe Girardi, who knows Torreyes quite well from his time with the Yankees. The versatile Torreyes was an oft-used bench piece for Girardi in 2016-17, tallying 505 plate appearances and a .281/.311/.374 batting line along the way. He doesn’t get on base much or hit for power, but the right-handed-hitting Torreyes is a tough strikeout (career 13.2 percent) who is capable of playing second base, third base and shortstop.

Torreyes will have plenty of competition in Spring Training as he looks to land a spot on Girardi’s roster for the 2020 season. The Phillies have also brought in Josh Harrison, Phil Gosselin and T.J. Rivera on minor league deals this winter.

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Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Ronald Torreyes

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