Just before the calendar flipped from 2018 to 2019, the Dodgers and Reds formally executed a deal that sent short-term veterans to Cincinnati and prospects to Los Angeles … a bit of an oddity in and of itself, given the expectations and eventual results for those two clubs in 2019. The ever-fascinating Yasiel Puig! Former star Matt Kemp, fresh off of a resurgent ’18 effort! Excellent lefty Alex Wood, probably the best present-talent player in the deal! And going in the other direction: Homer Bailey, the guy (some fans allege) the Reds chose to keep over Johnny Cueto!
For a trade that involved some huge names, this one didn’t get a ton of hype at the time. And it faded from memory rather quickly, in no small part because the most visible players in the deal ended up in other uniforms. That’s not to say there weren’t some big moments along the way, it’s just … the most memorable one occurred minutes after Puig was traded away to the Indians, when he took part in an on-field brawl with his technically former Reds teammates.
Looking back on the deal, you can see what the Reds were trying to accomplish and why they hoped it would work out. But it stung in retrospect, even with Puig helping the club secure the services of Trevor Bauer in that summer swap. More than a loss for the Reds, though, it stands out as a masterstroke by the Dodgers, who didn’t miss the veteran talent they parted with, re-filled their farm system, saved money, and gained payroll flexibility.
Let’s break it all back down and see what precisely each side got and gave up …
Dodgers Receive
- Homer Bailey, SP: one year, $23MM + $5MM buyout
- Josiah Gray, SP: 6+ seasons of control; not yet on 40-man roster
- Jeter Downs, INF: 6+ seasons of control; not yet on 40-man roster
Reds Receive
- Matt Kemp, OF: one year, $21.5MM
- Yasiel Puig, OF: one year, $9.7MM
- Alex Wood, SP: one year, $9.65MM
- Kyle Farmer, C/INF: 5 seasons of control; pre-arbitration
- $7MM cash
So, the Dodgers took on $28MM in salary and sent another $7MM to Cincinnati, while the Reds absorbed $40.85MM in 2019 spending obligations.
You can see how the Reds convinced themselves to gamble some young talent here. They added less than $6MM in payroll obligations to get a trio of veterans who had long track records of success. In 2018, Puig turned in a 123 wRC+ effort while Kemp hit at a nearly identical rate (122 wRC+). Wood spun 151 2/3 innings of 3.68 ERA ball and had been even better the season prior. Farmer was a cheap and useful player to sweeten the pot. Even if the Cincinnati club didn’t break out, the front office likely felt it’d be able to recoup some value at the deadline (which, to an extent, it did).
On the Dodgers’ side, there was an added piece of value. Competitive balance tax considerations were of no concern to the lower-spending Redlegs, but the Los Angeles organization strongly preferred to stay under the luxury line. Bailey’s contract helped make that possible, because the average annual value of his deal was much lower than the remaining cash he was actually owed. As it turns out, the Dodgers skated in just under the $206MM payroll line. In addition to moving the salaries of Puig and Wood, changing out Kemp money ($20MM CBT hit) for Bailey money ($17.5MM) made the difference.
That critical piece of accounting work was accomplished without really taking anything from the Reds at all, leaving the Dodgers room to structure a swap that brought in serious prospect value. Both Gray and Downs were seen as solid talents at the time of the deal, but they’ve only boosted their stock since.
After one year of added seasoning, we now know, the Dodgers secured two leaguewide top-100 prospects out of this deal. Gray rocketed through the low minors to finish the 2019 season at Double-A, where he ran up 39 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA pitching in his age-21 campaign. He’s now a significant part of the Dodgers’ near-term rotation picture.
Downs also took off and reached the penultimate level of the minors in his first (and, it turns out, only) season in the Los Angeles organization. The middle infielder spent most of the season pummeling High-A pitching and ended the campaign with a cumulative .276/.362/.526 slash and 24 home runs through 535 plate appearances. The Dodgers preferred to keep Downs, but he ended up being a necessary piece of the team’s bold bid to add superstar Mookie Betts. When the original deal fell apart, the club agreed to a modified pact that sent Downs to the Red Sox as the key prospect asset.
The original Dodgers-Reds trade unquestionably delivered a hit to the Dodgers’ 2019 talent pool. Otherwise, they never would’ve been able to pull it off. But the club’s immense depth left a robust mix in both the outfield and the rotation. The Dodgers rightly anticipated they’d be just fine with losing this trio of players. Sure enough, the club led all of baseball in outfield WAR and tied for second in the rotation.
Funny enough, this one could’ve worked out even better for the Dodgers. Baseball being the bizarre game that it is, Bailey actually ended up being the most productive player in this deal in 2019. He contributed 2.0 rWAR/2.9 fWAR … though not to the Dodgers, who cut him loose after the swap. Bailey caught on with the Royals and ended up being acquired by the Athletics, throwing well enough to earn a $7MM contract with the Twins this winter. To be fair, even had the Dodgers given it a shot, they may not have had room for Bailey on their already loaded staff.
The others involved didn’t fare as well, last season or in free agency. Puig didn’t play quite to expectations before the mid-summer trade. He remains the best free agent that has yet to sign. Kemp was cut loose after a brutal early showing and is now on a minor-league pact with the Marlins. And Wood? He missed most of 2019 with injury, severely curtailing the Reds’ side of this deal. But he did return late in the season, just enough to show he’s back to health … and to earn a return to Los Angeles on an incentive-laden, $4MM deal that could work out quite nicely for the Dodgers if he can return to form.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
What’s even funnier is they got wood back for free. So it was one season of puig and kemp for prospects and Bailey.
Well really you can strike Kemp and Bailey out and call it Puig for prospects. As a Reds fan, though, I don’t think the Reds “lost” the trade as much as LA “won” it. Considering that Puig helped land Bauer, I would probably even make it again until I see Downs or Gray actually making an MLB impact.
Jeter Downs turned into Mookie Betts.
Yep! Dodgers did good here. but Reds did well themselves at the end by trading Puig for Bauer.
Lol. “Puig for Bauer”
Try Trammell for Bauer
Forgot about that part. oops!
Don’t forget Scott Moss
At least in the same way Downs “turned into” Mookie
They may end up being losers in the Betts deal if the season never happens and they lose him in free agency.
Even if they don’t lose him they’re still losers in that trade unless he takes a discount and that discount is for more $ than the surplus value from Verdugo, Wong and Downs.
I’ve got a feeling they can and will keep Betts if Friedman wants to. They can afford to and while Betts won’t put up 30HR numbers consistently at Dodger stadium, his speed,superb defense and power will still have him hitting 20+ HR and 40+ doubles. A perennial MVP candidate for years to come.
The Dodgers get to see him play.. Say half a season in 2020? my money is he resigns there.
That’s a crock
The dodgers acquired Mookie Betts for the playoffs. As long as their is a 2020 playoffs and they qualify, they lost nothing by losing a couple months of the year
If anything, it’s good for the vets who can use a break… cough David price, Justin Turner, Clayton Kershaw Kenley Jansen, etc cough…
Keeping Betts still won’t make the trade look better. In fact if they just offer more $ than everyone else it will make the trade look worse.
I don’t think this deal is under appreciated. Most people know how much of a win this was for LAD
Perhaps the second the got rid of puig they bounced out in the first round. He was the spark plug that turned the franchise around.
Puig is the most overated player in all of baseball-
Ive posted this before-
Hes fast and has a great arm yet hes an avg defender
Hes fast yet has the 2nd worst sb% in the bigs (min 80 attempts over last 4 years) not to mention hes one of the worst baserunners in all MLB (3rd in cost outs on paths last 4 yrs)
Hes strong yet doesnt hit hrs – His 24 last year was tied for 83rd in the Bigs !
His lifetime Ops is 823
It was a good day in LALA land the day we freed up pt and abs for the youth and said good-bye to Yasiel…. theres just not as much juice in the lemon that everybody was hoping for after that magical 2013 year
Not missing puig has nothing to do with him not being valuable
You do realize his 820+ career ops is significantly better than league average?
They replaced him with the MVP of the league. That doesn’t mean puig sucked as a dodger. That’s just dumb logic
Hey look it’s JD again!
@JD Candello You misspelled Wil Myers.
Puig overrated? He’s having trouble finding a job right now. Folks seem aware he’s not that good.
Oh please. They also had 3 early exits when he was a Dodger. His replacement was only the NL MVP. The Dodgers have so much OF depth Puig was not missed at all.
Homer Bailey never suited up for the Dodgers & Jeter Downs was traded the very next offseason & there is no telling how long it will take Josiah Gray to reach the big leagues & I don’t see a win for the Dodgers on this trade
Jeter Downs was traded in a package for a top 5 player. That’s most definitely a win. There might not be a season this year, so it won’t look like that, but the Dodgers process to get Mookie Betts was a win as they gave up as close to nothing as possible in a trade for a star
And Puig was traded in a package for a top flight starting pitcher.
Gray soared through the minors last year and was excellent at every level. He very well could have made his MLB debut in a normal 2020. The Dodgers got two excellent prospects for mediocre spare parts. Its awfully convenient you left out that Downs was traded in a deal for a top player in baseball too, they didn’t just give up on him. Thinking this trade was not a win for the Dodgers is wrong and not even debatable.
This was a massive win for the Dodgers. Kemp was junk in the second half, and likely is done. Puig is a head case and a pretty average player.. Wood can’t stay off the DL
I rather the Reds have just released Bailey ate the money and kept Downs and Gray.
They likely still would have gotten Bauer, Puig was dealt more to even the money then any real desire by the Indians Though with how Bauer has done with the Reds I think I rather have seen them keep Trammell as well.
You don’t trade prospects for mediocre talent in the last years of their deals when said talent isn’t the last pieces to a playoff caliber team.
Not only where these three spare parts with the Dodgers they were also spare parts with the Reds.
Horrible deal for them.
Lmfao
I too am blind, George
Uhh. They never wanted bailey, this was a steal for the dodgers.
If Betts walks it won’t be.
Betts walking or not has no bearing on how good the trade was for LA.
LOL
Thanks for reminding me… (sad Reds fan)
Another reason why major-league baseball needs a salary cap. Teams like the Dodgers the Red Sox Yankees etc. can buy themselves in and out of a bad Contract that would cripple any midmarket or small market organization.
Or other teams can step on their game. Rays and A’s don’t seem to have a tough time competing.
Let’s race. You can start 20 yards behind me in a 100 yard dash. It’s not unfair. Usain Bolt can still beat me. You just have to run faster!
Competing? That just means you’re good enough to not win anything and not bad enough to get the top picks like the Rays used to set themselves up years ago. And then if you are lucky enough to have any success the window of opportunity snaps shut even quicker (see KC). Not sure why every other league can survive with a salary cap but baseball which oddly enough is also the only league that doesn’t permit teams to trade their normal draft picks. Well run teams are still successful with a salary cap. Instead teams with deep pockets can eat a bad contract that would cripple a handful of organizations for quite a few years, instead we’ll break spring training with at least a dozen teams knowing they have a combined zero chance of winning anything.
There are plenty of teams in every sport who break camp with no chance of making the playoffs. Look at the Jets in the NFL.
The luxury tax works as a pseudo cap and most teams can spend more, they choose not too. The Cardinals are not in some baseball Mecca with deep pockets and yet they find a way to have a high payroll with competitive teams. In addition to that, the union doesn’t want a cap. I bet the owners would be all for it.
The luxury tax is a joke when most of the league can’t operate an organization and get anywhere near that tax limit Without bankrupting their franchise.
Trading for 1 year of homer Bailey while sending back a chunk of Matt Kemps money to offset salary would cripple any small or mid market organization??? You can’t possibly believe that.
There’s already a soft cap. MLB is more in need of a salary floor so that teams like the Marlins are required to put a real team on the field, teams like the Pirates don’t waste their young talent by overly pinching pennies, and older less talented yet still productive free agents can find more and better job offers.
They paid pennies more to Bailey than Kemp was due, Kemp simply had a shorter contract left and therefore a bigger hit
Any team could do this. Teams are cheap. Don’t blame owners who care that teams like Pitt still haven’t paid a guy 100M. That’s quite backwards to point the finger at teams who do try to win. Lmao. Better to be the victim I guess
No that’s just incentive for small and mid market teams not to sign big, stupid contracts which almost always inevitably come back to bite.
Gotta get kicked while I’m down
Friedman detractors should rethink this. I’m not a fan of how he handles or does not handle the pen, but everything else works out with a stacked farm system, controllable assets, and maximum flexibility. It’s not just because LA ownership has a lot of money to spend that makes him good at his job, although it helps. Kudos to Friedman.
Why is there so many exclamation points in the 1st paragraph! lol
To put an emphasis on how Kemp and Puig had much more name value than actual value.
imo it was worthwhile for the Reds. fact of the matter is just about everything that could have gone wrong for them did. Kemp may have been due for regression but that was real hard. Wood had injury issues but never that bad. Puig wasnt terrible but didnt get going for a bit which hurt his trade value. Meanwhile the Dodgers had to take on dead money in Homer and simply turned Downs into part of Betts (which could have been replaced with many others given how deap LAD’s system is) Gray meanwhile only had one good year and very well may regress.
Kemp was every bit of dead money as Bailey. The Reds just ended up with less of it. “Gray had one good year”.. uhhh it was his 1st full season as a pro after being a 2nd round pick. If anything he is going to ascend not regress.
for one Kemp had been much more valuable in previous years, 2018 in specific. and while i probably sell Gray short its his lack of track record that concerns me to be honest.
Kemp couldn’t play defense. Puig couldn’t hit, and wood should have never been cleared by the Reds pathetic medical team.
The Reds gave up the three best players in the deal. Kemp had a good few months in 2018, but the second half was crap and 2019 he showed he’s done. Puig massive head case who has been a average player at best far more name then production. There is a reason he isn’t signed. Wood can’t stay on the field and has a motion that screams I’m good for 10 starts a year then a long DL stay. He was horrible in those starts as well.
Bailey surprised by actually be meh outside of Cincinnati and his time there was done, but the Reds would have been far better off just cutting him like the Dodgers did.
Their system isn’t strong. Gray Trammell and Downs would have provided depth, something that a team like the Reds can’t ignore.
Now if they some how ended up with Seager for those three that would have been a win for them. a strong player with a bit of team control left.
There is no way it was worthwhile for the Reds. The Dodgers gave up injury-prone players who outplayed their usual, mediocre performance. The Reds actually took on more money than the Dodgers. And while NO prospect is ever a sure thing (cause what is in life), I don’t think you are too keen on what the word regress means in baseball terms, given your liberal use of the word. The fact that Gray, a second round pick, was key to the deal for the Dodgers doesn’t mean he’ll only have “one good year.” It means the Dodgers are elite in identifying player talent and are confident in their organizational ability to further enhance a player’s underlying tools and makeup.
If you’re a Reds fan, stop trying to justify a horribly laughable trade for your team. It was as bad as the Archer trade for the Pirates and proof that if you’re a dinosaur in this game, you’re going to get left behind.
If you’re a Dodgers fan, quit your Friedman hating simply because they let go of your favorite, overpaid players who were fringe performers at best on the most loaded roster in all of baseball. Accept the facts and move on. The man has turned this franchise into a rich, young perennial contender after two decades of wasting away due to horrible ownership and bloated contracts.
Kemp was one of the worst players in Mlb the 2nd half before being traded in the winter-
Cincy had zero expectations of him – he was a bad attitude for bad attitude (Bailey) throw in that had a ton of crappy money attached to both and neither team wanted their own player anywhere close to the org again
I put the cut date at May 15 for Kemp on this website last year, ofc Dodger and Reds fans killed me but I knew it was an easy under ticket-(May 4)
* shout-out to common sense slaps you as I think he was the only one who said Kemp wouldnt even make it outta camp (which I kinda agreed to an extent at the time)
Afk- You nailed this one w/ a much shorter response than kudos
*than I
The deal was a win, win. That is until Wood got hurt and never contributed to the Reds. Puig was underwhelming, but no one expected anything from Kemp or Farmer. Farmer exceeded expectations. The fact that they traded Downs in the deal to get Betts is besides the point. They would have put in some other kid, it was about tax thresholds for Boston, just like the year prior it was about tax thresholds for LA.
Lots of apostrophes in this article! Must be important…..
Imagine being someone who things the Reds don’t regret this.
Dodgers won this trade the second it was made but maybe the Reds didn’t do that bad.
Their attendance went up something like 150,000. It probably put some butts in the seats and got a few seasons tickets out of it. Sometimes it’s showing that commitment to the fans that after 5 seasons of under .500 ball they were ready to take the next step and got some buzz around the city.
Let’s face it – unless those prospects actually do something it’s less than $6 million and a swap of bad contracts. Neither team has any of the major league players any longer.
Great post, loved that opening paragraph, spot on ….
Dodgers won by simply getting rid of Puig and Kemp, anything in return was a gift
Cincy needs to drum up fan support (something Dodger fans) (luckily) dont ever have to worry about…. not everything is so black and white and I think your post reflects that-
Now can we just drum up enough hype to get Senzel and Amir for a Seager Stripling package!! LA and Cincy love doin Biz w/ each other seems like almost every year
Plus Puig beat up some Pirates. You can’t put a price on that.
downs was a c prospect and had one good year in the Dodgers system. Still a long way off and good years don’t make up for lack of tools. gray might have been better but was rated that way for a reason. people get betetr rating once they get that big market hype.
Another Friedman heist. The people who hate on his work are astounding to me. Two top 100 guys for the right to release Bailey, all while his contract really fit perfectly into the larger plan
His ability and willingness to manipulate the CBT should be looked at by teams like Philly who just quit before the team even has A chance, Bc they’re afraid of the tax…
Every bit of the trade was bad for the Reds. Bailey was gonna be released in the spring anyway. So they have up talent to save a little money. Also think they could of gotten Bower with anyone of the guys they dealt. Kept Trammel and Downs. Send Gray and another piece for Bower and be set at Center field with Trammel.
This trade wasn’t actually that bad at the time, it made a lot of sense. But looking back the reds got fleeced. If this trade went as expected I wouldn’t have been surprised if the reds were in the playoffs last year. However it didn’t and hindsight is 20/20