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Archives for November 2020

Phillies Hire Caleb Cotham As Pitching Coach

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve hired Caleb Cotham as their new pitching coach, replacing the recently retired Bryan Price. Cotham was reported to be the front-runner last week.

It’s been a rapid ascent to this position for Cotham, who is still just 33 years of age and as recently as 2016 was pitching in the big leagues. He retired shortly thereafter and was quickly hired as an assistant pitching coach with one of his former teams, the Reds. Cotham’s extensive work with Driveline Baseball opened him up to myriad ways in which data and technology could be implemented as a means of improving velocity and optimizing pitching arsenals. When the Reds hired Driveline’s Kyle Boddy a year later in 2019, Cotham added “director of pitching” to his title with the Reds organization.

Despite his youth, Cotham’s growing knowledge of cutting-edge technological advancements in pitching development has made him something of a rising star on the coaching ranks. He reportedly interviewed with multiple clubs this winter. Cotham’s familiarity with Phillies skipper Joe Girardi, his manager with the 2015 Yankees, surely couldn’t have hurt his chances at landing the job in Philadelphia.

“Caleb has many strengths as a pitching coach that we believe will help him excel with our staff,” Girardi said in a statement within today’s press release. “He has a very good feel for evaluating pitchers and getting them back on track when things start to go wrong. The pitchers in Cincinnati were very complimentary of his game-planning ability and knowing how to play to each one of their strengths. Caleb is a tremendous competitor whose experience as both a major league pitcher and major league coach will enhance our staff.”

The loss of Cotham gives the Reds some work to do on their coaching staff. Boddy, the organization’s pitching coordinator and director of pitching initiatives, noted at the end of a congratulatory Twitter thread that he is “not throwing [his] hat into the ring” to replace Cotham. Boddy added that Cotham’s presence with the organization “helped to attract considerable coaching talent” from outside the organization and that the Reds have “a lot of great directions to investigate.”

Tigers Select Matt Manning, Three Others

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The Tigers announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Alex Lange and left-hander Joey Wentz in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the 2020 Rule 5 Draft.

All four players were top 40 picks in their respective draft classes — Manning and Wentz in 2016, Faedo and Lange in 2017. Manning went ninth overall to the Tigers back in ’16 and stands out not only as one of the organization’s best prospects but one of the best prospects in all of baseball. He checks in at No. 15 on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, No. 18 at FanGraphs and No. 20 at MLB.com.

There was some thought that the 22-year-old Manning might even make his Major League debut for the Tigers in 2020, although that didn’t come to pass. He spent the 2019 season with Detroit’s Double-A affiliate in Erie, where he pitched to a 2.56 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 through 133 2/3 frames and is viewed as a potential top-of-the-rotation piece alongside fellow top prospect Casey Mize.

Both the 25-year-old Faedo and the 23-year-old Wentz factor prominently into the organization’s prospect rankings, though neither is thought to have the same ceiling as that of Manning, Mize or southpaw Tarik Skubal. Still, both are viewed as near-MLB prospects who could fill spots in the middle or back of a rotation. Wentz, acquired from the Braves in the trade that sent Shane Greene from Detroit to Atlanta, will be further off by virtue of the fact that he is on the mend from 2020 Tommy John surgery.

The Tigers picked up Lange, 25, in the trade that sent Nick Castellanos to the Cubs back in 2019. He’s a bit further off than Faedo despite being the same age, as he has just 54 2/3 frames at the Double-A level under his belt and has shown some control issues while pitching there. Still, it’s conceivable that any of Manning, Faedo or Lange could make their big league debuts next season, depending on their progress in the upper minors and on the state of the Detroit rotation. This quartet, paired with the aforementioned Mize, Skubal and righty Franklin Perez, represents but a portion of the deep reservoir of talented young arms the Tigers have stockpiled to this point in their rebuilding efforts.

Deadline To Protect Players From Rule 5 Draft Is Tonight

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As noted last month when we ran through various key dates for the offseason, tonight marks the deadline for teams to protect players from the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. Clubs wishing to protect Rule 5-eligible players must add them to their 40-man rosters by 6pm ET tonight or else risk losing them to another team during next month’s draft, which takes place on Dec. 10.

Eligibility is dependent on a player’s age and the timing of his entry to the professional ranks. A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster in advance of the deadline. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster tomorrow. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2017 class, high school draftees out of the 2016 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2016-17 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)

Players who meet those criteria but are not added to the 40-man roster by tonight’s deadline will be eligible to be conditionally drafted to another club at next month’s event. The new team will have to take said player and not only place him directly on its 40-man roster but also carry him on the Major League roster throughout the 2021 season. Rule 5 draftees must remain on the Major League roster for the entire season in order to be retained by their new club. They can be placed on the Major League injured list, of course, but a player must spend at least 90 total days on the active roster in order to shed his Rule 5 designation. Should he not spend 90 days on the active roster, his Rule 5 designation would roll over into the 2022 season and remain in place until his 90th (cumulative) day on a big league roster.

As those who’ve followed prior offseasons surely recall, tonight’s looming deadline will prompt plenty of action over the course of the day. Expect a handful of trades and waiver claims as well as a slew of DFAs today as teams look to create 40-man roster space to protect Rule 5-eligible prospects. Trades made in the runup to this deadline may not look like blockbusters at the time, but one need only look back three years to see that trades on this day can have enormous ramifications; on this day in 2017, the Astros traded a yet-to-debut outfielder named Ramon Laureano to the A’s for minor league righty Brandon Bailey (who was not Rule 5-eligible and thus did not need to be protected).

As you might imagine, it’s easier to account for protection of prospects for teams with extra 40-man roster space, but it’s not as simple as having an opening. That club also must be able to carry a player in that spot throughout the winter and into the season. Adding a player that wouldn’t have been selected (or wouldn’t have lasted on an active roster) therefore has its own risk: if you end up needing the space, you might have to expose such a player to outright waivers in the middle of the season.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has a breakdown of the Rule 5-eligible players from each team’s Top 30 prospects who’ll need to be added by tonight’s deadline or else exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Seven of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, headlined by Astros righty Forrest Whitley, need to be protected this year. Those seven will assuredly be protected, but not every player within a club’s top 30 rankings will be added to a 40-man roster today.

Not long ago, we’d already have seen a slew of 40-man additions and probably some minor transactions in the week leading up to this deadline as teams prepared. Today’s brand of general manager/president of baseball operations, however, seems wholly intent on waiting right up until every deadline to make final decisions — be it the trade deadline, Rule 5 protection deadline, non-tender deadline, etc. The Cardinals have made a pair of 40-man adds this week — catcher Ivan Herrera and righty Angel Rondon — but it’s been silence from the league’s other 29 teams.

This year’s Covid-19 pandemic, of course, only further obscures the already difficult task of determining which minor leaguers run the risk of being selected by another organization. Most clubs didn’t get to see the bulk of their prospects in a competitive setting in 2020. Even more difficult was their lack of looks at minor leaguers in other organizations. These decisions are never easy for any team, but the challenges of the 2020 make this year’s slate of roster protection transactions all the more complicated.

Here’s a look at how many 40-man roster openings each club has to work with at the moment, although it’s important to recognize that these totals will change within hours of this writing due to the aforementioned avalanche of transactions that looms:

Nationals: 9

Phillies: 9

Athletics: 8

Reds: 8

Dodgers: 7

Cubs: 6

Blue Jays: 5

Indians: 5

Orioles: 5

Mariners: 5

Rangers: 5

Twins: 5

Angels: 4

Brewers: 4

Mets: 4

Red Sox: 4

Tigers: 4

White Sox: 4

Yankees: 4

Astros: 3

Braves: 3

Diamondbacks: 2

Marlins: 2

Padres: 2

Rockies: 2

Cardinals: 1

Giants: 1

Rays: 1

Royals: 1

Pirates: 0

Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

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It’s time for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry Friday, November 20th at 11pm central time.  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

  • After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.  I may also send occasional promotional emails for Trade Rumors Front Office.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  We will also be giving out ten one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Trevor Bauer (#1 ranking) and James Paxton (#20 ranking) for a total of 21 points.  Steve gets Ha-Seong Kim (#6) and James McCann (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

Latest On Eduardo Rodriguez

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Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is entering his final year of team control, in which he’ll earn around $8.3MM in arbitration, but his hope is to remain in Boston beyond 2021.

“I want to stay in Boston as long as my career goes,” he told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “I want to play in Boston forever. That’s where I got to the big leagues. That’s where I got an opportunity. That’s my family. That’s a ballpark where I really love to pitch — the history, everything.”

Rodriguez emphasized to Speier in their discussion, which is worth a full read, how well he is doing after a season cut off because of myocarditis and COVID-19. He expects to return to the mound next year after missing all of 2020 because of those health problems.

“I’m 100 percent and I can start doing everything,” he said. “I feel fine. I feel great.”

You can’t help but feel happy about the progress made by Rodriguez, who was a quality starter for the Red Sox from 2015-19 before his health issues cut him down. Rodriguez recorded a 3.81 ERA/3.88 FIP in 203 1/3 innings as a member of the Red Sox two seasons ago and looked like one of the top young starters in the game then. One of the main questions now is whether the 27-year-old will stay in Boston for the long haul.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom didn’t make it clear in an interview with WEEI (via Rob Bradford) how serious he is about an extension for Rodriguez, but he did say there’s “a mutual desire” to hammer out an agreement. However, if no extension comes together in the coming months and Rodriguez reestablishes himself as a formidable rotation option next year, he’ll be a very appealing free agent a year from now.

Latest On DJ LeMahieu

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Second baseman DJ LeMahieu was a godsend for the Yankees during the previous two seasons, but as a free agent, he could go elsewhere this offseason. Re-signing with the Yankees is LeMahieu’s preference, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, but the 2020 American League batting champion wants to stay in the area. That could put a LeMahieu-Mets union in play, per Davidoff, though he reports that the Blue Jays are also in on him.

The Mets now have an unexpected opening at the keystone after starter Robinson Cano received a 162-game suspension Wednesday because of performance-enhancing drugs. Cano won’t earn a penny of his $24MM salary as a result, which will only make it easier for new, deep-pocketed Mets owner Steve Cohen to make splashes this winter. The Mets don’t necessarily have to throw money around at second, as they could simply use Jeff McNeil at the position and allocate their cash elsewhere, but LeMahieu does look like a more realistic option for the franchise than he did before Cano’s punishment came down.

The Yankees, for their part, aren’t going to let LeMahieu walk without a fight. They already gave LeMahieu a qualifying offer worth $18.9MM for 2021, but he made the no-brainer decision to reject it. They still want to keep him, however, according to Davidoff.

Regardless of whether LeMahieu stays with the Yankees, the team’s call to sign him for two years and $24MM before 2019 was a masterstroke, considering he was its best player over the prior two seasons. The 32-year-old former Cub and Rockie is now coming off a near-MVP season, which puts LeMahieu in position to clean up during this winter’s free-agent period. MLBTR pegs LeMahieu for a four-year, $68MM contract, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him do even better than that on the open market.

Cardinals Select Angel Rondon

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The Cardinals announced that they have selected right-hander Angel Rondon to their 40-man roster. Their roster now consists of 39 players.

The Dominican-born Rondon, 22, has been a member of the St. Louis organization since before the 2016 season, and he has pitched to a sturdy 3.01 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 347 1/3 minor league innings with the Cardinals. Rondon topped out at Double-A ball in 2019 and impressed with a 3.21 ERA/3.97 FIP, 8.77 K/9 and 3.29 BB/9 across 115 frames and 20 appearances (all starts) en route to Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors for the Cards that season.

Rondon now ranks as the Cardinals’ 13th-best prospect at MLB.com, which writes that he boasts a 93 to 94 mph fastball that can hit 97. He also features a “power curveball” and “an average changeup.” That mix of pitches could help Rondon evolve into a legitimate major league starter or at least a useful reliever.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The 2020 campaign represented a major step in the right direction for the Padres, who clinched their first playoff berth since 2006 and advanced in the postseason for the first time since 1998. While things are no doubt looking up for the franchise, its offseason hasn’t come without some drastic changes in the early going. The team found out earlier this week that right-hander Mike Clevinger won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and then executive chairman Ron Fowler stepped down from his role. Fowler’s exit leaves the Padres with a new control person in Ron Seidler.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Manny Machado, 3B: $240MM through 2028
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $79MM through 2025
  • Wil Myers, OF: $41MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout for 2023)
  • Drew Pomeranz, LHP: $22MM through 2023
  • Mike Clevinger, RHP: $11.5MM through 2022
  • Craig Stammen, RHP: $5MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)
  • Pierce Johnson, RHP: $3MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Padres are fortunate enough that they shouldn’t have to spend much time worrying about their catcher position or their infield in the coming months. In-season acquisition Austin Nola looks like the answer as the Padres’ primary backstop, though they may have to decide whether to deploy Francisco Mejia as his backup, use him as a trade chip and turn the role over to Luis Campusano, or shop for help from outside the organization. Other than that, the Padres look set with the superstar third base-shortstop tandem of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the left side of their infield and second baseman Jake Cronenworth and first baseman Eric Hosmer occupying the other positions. The main concern in that group is Tatis’ future, as the Padres have to worry about keeping him in the fold for the long haul with a contract extension. The two sides have already expressed interest in mapping out a long-term arrangement.

There is less certainty in the outfield, though the Padres appear to have their solution in center with Trent Grisham. Right fielder Wil Myers had a tremendous bounce-back year in 2020, but if the Padres had their druthers, perhaps they would move on from the pricey three seasons left on his contract in a trade. That looks unlikely unless San Diego takes back a similarly inflated contract, so Myers figures to remain with the team. While those two positions may be spoken for going forward, left field looks like less of a sure thing. The Padres could just keep Tommy Pham, but his production cratered during an injury-shortened 2020, and non-tendering him would save the Padres about $8MM. Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar – who played more games in left than any other Padre last season – is a free agent.

If the Padres say goodbye to Pham, there’s a case that they should just re-sign Profar, who had a respectable year. Otherwise, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner and Robbie Grossman are among those they could target in free agency. Of course, more choices will become available when teams announce which players they’re non-tendering.

With Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies and Chris Paddack comprising 80 percent of their starting staff, the Padres’ rotation seemed to be in enviable shape just a couple days ago. Their confidence probably took a hit Wednesday, though, with Clevinger’s out-of-nowhere TJ procedure. He won’t be a factor next year, but the Padres do still have most of their rotation settled with Lamet and Davies, who each broke out in 2020, and Paddack. They also feature MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi and Ryan Weathers as in-house options who could assume starting spots in 2021.

If the Padres don’t want to turn over spots to two members of that group, they’ll have plenty of free-agent possibilities. Southern California native Trevor Bauer is easily the cream of the crop, but signing him may require the Padres to hand out yet another nine-figure contract. More modest options include their own free agent, Garrett Richards, as well as Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, ex-Friar Corey Kluber, Jose Quintana and James Paxton, among others. The Padres also look like a realistic trade suitor for the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, who’s due a modest $8MM next year and whom his team seems likely to trade.

The bullpen may be an area of some emphasis in the offseason for the Padres, who could lose summer pickup Trevor Rosenthal in free agency. Former star closer Kirby Yates is also on the market, though he didn’t pitch much in 2020 because of injuries. That said, the Padres do have a lot of their 2021 bullpen already figured out with Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Craig Stammen set to reprise their roles. Austin Adams and Tim Hill are along among the veterans remaining in the mix, but it still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Padres seek bullpen help from elsewhere. The big prize could be Josh Hader, whom the Brewers are open to trading; otherwise, in no particular order, Rosenthal, Yates, former Padre Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May, Jake McGee, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene are some late-game hurlers who should draw their share of interest in free agency.

With the Padres in the throes of a seemingly endless playoff drought at this time last offseason, general manager A.J. Preller had his back up against the wall a winter ago. Preller and the team he built found a way to deliver, though, and now the Padres look like a club that should contend again in 2021 with another productive offseason. The Padres are short on glaring holes, but there is at least room for improvement in their pitching staff and perhaps their outfield.

Brewers Promote Matt Arnold To General Manager

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The Brewers announced Thursday that they’ve promoted assistant general manager Matt Arnold, giving him the title of senior vice president and general manager. David Stearns, the team’s president of baseball operations and general manager, still sits atop Milwaukee’s baseball operations hierarchy but has had the “GM” portion dropped from his title in light of Arnold’s promotion.

The timing of the move likely isn’t a coincidence, as multiple clubs around the game have had GM vacancies open up — with a few still to be filled. Arnold is a well-respected executive who’d surely have generated interest for clubs looking to lure him away with a promotion to a GM post in their own organization. Arnold’s promotion won’t give him the autonomy over baseball operations decisions he might’ve been granted with another club, but it’s a notable bump in stature (and presumably in salary) that will make it more difficult for other teams to hire him away.

“For the past five years, Matt has served an invaluable role in helping to guide our baseball operations group,” Stearns said in a press release announcing the move. “He has contributed to every significant decision we have made and has offered indispensable advice and support throughout that time with the Brewers. Today’s announcement formalizes how we have operated over the last few years. This move provides Matt with the deserved recognition of his tireless work and ensures that our baseball operations leadership group remains intact.”

The 41-year-old Arnold originally came to the Brewers from the Rays organization, where he spent nine seasons in a variety of roles, including director of player personnel. He’s also worked for the Dodgers, Rangers and Reds over the course of a 20-year baseball operations career, occupying roles in scouting, player development and player analysis along the way.

Tigers Release Brandon Dixon To Pursue Opportunity In Japan

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The Tigers announced this morning that they’ve released infielder/outfielder Brandon Dixon in order to allow him to pursue an opportunity in Japan. The move drops Detroit’s 40-man roster to a total of 36 players in advance of tomorrow’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft.

It’s not yet clear which Nippon Professional Baseball will be signing the 28-year-old Dixon. The former third-round pick (Dodgers, 2013) was traded from Los Angeles to Cincinnati alongside Scott Schebler and Jose Peraza in the three-team swap that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox. (The Dodgers picked up Frankie Montas, Trayce Thompson and Micah Johnson from Chicago in that deal.)

Dixon made it to the big leagues with the Reds in 2018 but struggled through 124 plate appearances before being jettisoned from the 40-man roster that November. The Tigers claimed him and gave him a fairly substantial role with their 2019 club, as Dixon logged a career-high 420 plate appearances while hitting .248/.290/.435 with 15 homers, 20 doubles and four triples. His poor on-base percentage and the arrival of some younger talent for the Tigers in 2020 limited Dixon’s chances; he appeared in just five games with Detroit this past season and went 1-for-13 with a walk and a double.

Overall, Dixon is a .228/.271/.410 hitter in 558 Major League plate appearances, but he’s fared much better in Triple-A: .280/.333/.472 in 184 games. He’s worked primarily as a first baseman and corner outfielder in recent seasons with the Tigers, but Dixon has at least some professional experience at every position on the diamond except shortstop and catcher.

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