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6 Potential Trade Targets For Yankees’ Rotation

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The Yankees’ rotation took a beating Tuesday with the loss of ace-caliber right-hander Luis Severino, who will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season. This will essentially end up as the second straight lost year for Severino, who starred from 2017-18 before tossing just 12 innings last season on account of shoulder and lat injuries. The Yankees did just fine in Severino’s absence in 2019, winning 103 games and the AL East title, but the latest development on the 26-year-old is no doubt horrible news for the club. That’s especially true when considering the Yankees will open 2020 without left-hander James Paxton, either their third- or fourth-best starter, as he’ll be out until sometime in May or June after undergoing a back procedure three weeks ago.

In an ideal world, the Yankees would have began the year with Severino, Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ complementing Gerrit Cole. But they’re now left to choose from some combination of Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga, Deivi Garcia, Luis Cessa, Mike King, Chad Bettis and Nick Tropeano to fill out their rotation. That’s obviously assuming the Yankees stay in-house to address their issues. Free agency’s just about empty at this point, as general manager Brian Cashman suggested Tuesday when he said, “The winter marketplace this time of year, it doesn’t exist.” Finding a solution via trade at this juncture doesn’t seem much more likely, considering Cashman indicated he expects to rely on internal options to replace Severino and Paxton, but the Yankees are better off trying that route if they want to make a high-upside play before the season.

Admittedly, most (or all) of the below names probably aren’t available at the moment. Nevertheless, let’s explore some enticing starters the Yankees could potentially acquire in the coming weeks or at least consider taking a look at around the July trade deadline…

  • Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies: Colorado’s of the belief (delusion?) that it’s going to push for a playoff spot this season, making it unlikely Gray will go anywhere before then. But if the team flounders over the first few months of the campaign, he’s a candidate to end up on his way out. The 28-year-old has plenty of value as someone with two seasons of control left, not to mention an ultra-affordable $5.6MM salary in 2020. Gray averaged 96 mph on his fastball last year and notched a 3.84 ERA/4.06 FIP with 9.0 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate over 150 innings.
  • Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates: Pittsburgh probably won’t win anything this year or next (Archer’s last two seasons of control), so it would make sense to listen to offers. However, the team may prefer to keep the 31-year-old for now in hopes that he rebuilds his value after a nightmarish season and a half in its uniform. Archer turned in an awful 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP with a career-worst 4.14 BB/9 in 119 2/3 innings last year. On the bright side, he fanned almost 11 hitters per nine, continued to average around 94 mph on his fastball and was much more effective in the second half of the season. And for what it’s worth, Archer has shown he can flourish in the Yankees’ division, the AL East, where he pitched from 2012-18 with the Rays.
  • Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: Boyd has been a popular name in the rumor mill for quite some time, but the Tigers haven’t traded him because they’ve apparently placed an exorbitant asking price on the southpaw. That’s understandable with Boyd under control through 2022 and due a reasonable $5.3MM this season. At the same time, they seemingly haven’t worked to extend Boyd, so perhaps a trade will come together sometime this year. All that said, preventing runs has never been Boyd’s strongest suit. He posted a sterling 11.56 K/9 with a 2.43 BB/9 a season ago, but he still ran up a 4.56 ERA/4.32 FIP and continued a trend of logging low groundball percentages (35.6).
  • Caleb Smith, LHP, Marlins: Smith was already a Yankee once, but they traded him to the Marlins in a 2017 deal that netted them the aforementioned King. Although Smith was unproven at the time, he has turned into a decent piece for Miami. Dating back to 2018, Smith has pitched to a 4.41 ERA/4.73 FIP with 9.99 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and an unsightly 26 percent grounder rate. Those certainly aren’t great numbers, though the fact that he has four years of control (including one more pre-arbitration season) helps make him pretty valuable. While the Marlins are still a ways from competing for a playoff spot, they’ve not shown a willingness to trade the 28-year-old Smith thus far.
  • Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: The Cubs were supposed to shake things up this offseason, partly in an effort to cut payroll, but they haven’t made any substantial trades yet. Getting rid of the four years and $81MM left on Darvish’s contract would help them duck the dreaded luxury tax, and there has been some interest around the league in the 33-year-old since last season ended. The Yankees were rumored to be among the teams in on Darvish when he was a free agent after 2017, but that doesn’t mean they’d want him now. Moreover, Darvish has a full no-trade clause that he doesn’t intend to waive. That NTC will become a 12-teamer sometime during the year, though, so he won’t have total say on his future for much longer.
  • Jose Quintana, LHP, Cubs: As with Darvish, moving Quintana would aid the Cubs in avoiding the tax, though it would also weaken their chances of competing in 2020. Quintana’s due $10.5MM this season, his last year of team control. The Yankees are familiar with Quintana, who belongs in the team’s “ones who got away” pile. He pitched in the Yankees’ minor league system several years back before blossoming into a quality starter with both Chicago teams.

Royals lefty Danny Duffy and Giants righties Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto are among other veterans who may be attainable via trade, but there’s a good case the Yankees would be better off relying on internal arms than pushing for either. Even most of the other names listed come with obvious flaws, so it would be reasonable if Cashman would rather see what he has in the organization for now before doing anything drastic in an effort to make up for the losses of Severino and Paxton. Remember, along with Paxton, the Yankees should get suspended righty Domingo German by the summertime, leaving them with a couple in-house reinforcements. But if the Yankees’ starting staff falls short leading up the deadline, it figures to be a key area of focus for the Cashman-led World Series hopefuls, and any of the above names may wind up on their radar.

Diamondbacks, Dalton Pompey Agree To Minor League Deal

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The D-backs have agreed to a deal with outfielder Dalton Pompey, per Sportsnet’s Jamie Campbell (Twitter link). It’s surely a minor league pact for Pompey, who has acknowledged the new opportunity himself in some replies on Twitter.

Now 27 years old, Pompey was once considered to be among the game’s premier prospects. During the 2014-15 offseason, Baseball America rated him as high as 30th overall among minor leaguers, while both MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus ranked him inside the top 50. In the preceding season, Pompey had skyrocketed from Class-A Advanced to the Majors, hitting a combined .317/.392/.469 with nine homers, 22 doubles, nine triples and 43 stolen bases across his three minor league stops. Even his .231/.302/.436 output in 43 big league plate appearances were impressive, considering that he was a 21-year-old who’d never played above A-ball as of Opening Day that season.

The switch-hitting Pompey had another productive season in the upper minors in 2015 but struggled in 103 MLB plate appearances. Still, the sky appeared to be the limit for the 22-year-old, who was heralded as a plus defender with a high-end hit tool and blazing speed that made him a threat on the basepaths and anytime he put the ball in play.

Sadly, Pompey’s career has been waylaid by injuries — most notably a series of concussions. He barely played in either 2017 or 2019 due to concussions troubles, and a wrist injury limited him to 57 games in 2018. In total, over the past four seasons, Pompey has been able to suit up for just 188 games between the big leagues and the minors — an average of only 47 contests per year. By the time the 2019 season rolled around, he’d exhausted all of his minor league options; the Blue Jays were forced to designate him for assignment in July, at which point he went unclaimed on waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A. Pompey became a free agent at season’s end.

It’s been six years since Pompey debuted in the Majors, which makes it seem like he’s older than he is, but he won’t even turn 28 until next December. He has plenty of hurdles to clear before he can be considered as an option to resurface in the Majors, and the D-backs have a deep outfield mix that’s controllable for the foreseeable future. David Peralta signed a three-year extension earlier this winter, while the Snakes acquired the final two seasons of Starling Marte’s contract in a trade with the Pirates, and free agent Kole Calhoun signed a two-year deal with a third-year option. Standout second baseman/center fielder Ketel Marte is also signed long-term, while backup outfielder Tim Locastro can be controlled another five years.

Still, the D-backs will give Pompey a proving ground to attempt to demonstrate that his injury troubles are behind him. And with a strong, healthy showing in camp and/or in the upper minors, he could position himself as one of the first lines of defense in the event of an injury at the MLB level.

Red Sox, Padres Unlikely To Line Up On Myers Swap

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The Red Sox have been linked to various permutations of trades involving Padres outfielder Wil Myers this offseason — including as recently as last week. However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe now reports that the two sides are “unlikely” to line up on an agreement. The Red Sox’ interest in working out a trade was largely a means of attempting to purchase some minor league and/or controllable MLB talent by absorbing part of the remaining three years and $61MM on Myers’ contract.

It’s not a surprise to see the Red Sox seeking creative ways to bolster their farm and their stock of MLB-ready rotation options. Boston’s farm landed 22nd of 30 in Baseball America’s February ranking of the game’s best minor league systems, and the back of their rotation looks perilously thin. Beyond Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox will likely rely on reclamation project Martin Perez and an unproven internal option (or options).

Among the candidates vying for the fifth starter’s job  are Hector Velazquez, Matt Hall, Chris Mazza, Mike Shawaryn, Ryan Weber and Kyle Hart. A clear winner might not be declared, as the Sox could shuffle a number of names through that spot or even deploy an opener every fifth day. And, of course, Sale and Eovaldi were far from 100 percent healthy in 2019. The added depth such a move would bring about would be particularly valuable in Boston.

As for the Padres, while it’s logical that they’d want to get out from some of the remaining Myers money, Speier indicates that the club isn’t interested in depleting its depth just to save money at this time. Shipping a Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi to Boston thins out their starting depth, and there’s no real means of improving the roster quality right now outside of an additional trade. Bringing a third club into the mix — as has been previously rumored — would give the Padres more options but obviously comes with additional layers of complexity. With Opening Day just one month away, the time to put together a deal of that magnitude is waning. (Not that Opening Day is a deadline, per se, but notable trades early in the regular season are a rarity.)

Even if Myers remains in San Diego to begin the season, rumors centering around the former Rookie of the Year will surely persist into the summer. The Padres’ outfield will consist of Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham and Franchy Cordero. Myers, Josh Naylor and non-roster invitee Juan Lagares are on hand as additional options, and the club also has yet-to-debut outfielders Edward Olivares and Jorge Ona on the 40-man roster — though neither has played above Double-A. The outfield has been something of a revolving door in San Diego over the past couple of seasons, but the team’s depth remains strong, and Myers is very arguably superfluous — particularly given his significant salary.

With the Friars set to open the year at a club-record $153MM payroll, it stands to reason that a successful jettison of even part of Myers’ salary would give general manager A.J. Preller additional room to improve the club this summer and to make further additions next offseason. As evidenced by the apparently unproductive talks with the Red Sox and the lack of success in prior efforts to deal Myers, however, bringing that idea into actuality is a rather challenging task.

Giancarlo Stanton Questionable For Opening Day Following Calf Injury

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In yet another bit of unwelcome injury news for the Yankees, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Wednesday that Giancarlo Stanton sustained a calf injury while working in the outfield yesterday (Twitter link via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). Stanton has already undergone an MRI, which revealed a Grade 1 strain in his ailing right calf. Boone suggested that Stanton will “be down for a bit” and implied that the slugger could miss time early in the season.

If the mounting rash of injuries in Yankees camp are beginning to feel familiar, that’s probably because the New York organization endured similar health struggles in 2019. The Yankees have already lost James Paxton for at least the first month of the season due to back surgery and lost Luis Severino for the year due to Tommy John surgery. Right fielder Aaron Judge has also been slowed by shoulder troubles so far and has yet to get into a Grapefruit League.

The Yankees can still lean on an alignment of Judge, Brett Gardner and Mike Tauchman. Stanton figures to rotate between the outfield corners and the designated hitter slot, the latter of which could now be filled more regularly by Miguel Andujar and Mike Ford in Stanton’s absence. If Stanton is indeed on the IL to open the season, that could increase Clint Frazier’s chances of opening the season on the Major League club.

Stanton, acquired in December 2017, enjoyed a strong ’18 campaign with the Yankees when he hit .266/.343/.509 with 38 homers. Biceps and knee injuries limited Stanton to just 18 regular season games in 2019, and the 2020 season isn’t off to a much better start. At this point, it’s not clear that Stanton will miss much of the regular season, but a Grade 1 strain is the least severe degree of strain. Barring setbacks, it shouldn’t be a long-term issue, and he could have time to ramp back up for a productive year.

The 30-year-old Stanton is being paid $26MM in 2020 under the terms of the then-record 13-year, $325MM deal he signed with the Marlins prior to the 2015 season. He’ll have the opportunity to opt out of his contract at the end of the 2020 season, although it’s extraordinarily difficult to envision him walking away from the remaining seven years and $218MM he’d be owed from 2021-27.

Braves Report Club-Record 2019 Revenue

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This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given the organization’s recent on-field success and intense ballpark development efforts, but the Braves have announced a new club record in 2019 revenue. As Erick Jackson of the Atlanta Business Chronicle writes, the team’s total revenue rose to $476MM last year — up from $442MM in 2018.

Why are we only covering this sort of information from the Braves? The Atlanta organization is the only team in baseball that is required legally to release its financials, by virtue of the fact that it’s owned by the publicly traded Liberty Media corporation.

The numbers reflect an eight percent rise in baseball-related revenue, with the team’s development-side earnings holding steady at $38MM. Increases at the gate and in television revenue were cited by the organization as driving the gains.

As the Braves attempt to defend their two-straight NL East titles in 2020, they’ll do so with a payroll increase on the books. The club did finish the 2019 season with just over $136MM in salary obligations, representing the third-straight increase in end-of-season spending, but had done so after opening with only a ~$115MM payroll. As things stand for 2020, there’s about $147.5MM on the books for the season to come. (All of these numbers reflect the cash accounting set forth by Cot’s on Contracts.)

Those increases in MLB roster spending will obviously impact the bottom line. Indeed, the club had already reported significant increases in its operating expenses in 2019. But as Jackson notes, that’s due to the ongoing efforts in and around the ballpark — the intention of which, clearly, is to support long-term revenue growth.

Julio Teheran Dealing With Hamstring Tightness

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FEBRUARY 26: Teheran indicated he doesn’t see much cause for concern; in fact, he’s hoping to be ready to get back on the mound by Sunday or Monday, Fletcher tweets.

FEBRUARY 25: Angels right-hander Julio Teheran won’t make his scheduled start Wednesday because of left hamstring tightness, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was among those to report. Fortunately for the Angels and Teheran, an MRI came back negative.

Teheran appears to be OK, but this is still a situation worth monitoring for an Angels club that has dealt with an abundance of adversity in its rotation over the past couple years. Injuries have been a major problem of late for the club, evidenced in part by the fact that no Angel even threw 100 innings last season. Conversely, a lack of durability hasn’t been a problem for Teheran, whom the Angels signed to a one-year, $9MM contract in free agency.

The 29-year-old Teheran was a member of the Braves from 2011-19, a span in which he amassed 170-plus innings in seven seasons. Teheran didn’t turn into the front-line type of starter the Braves thought they had toward the beginning of his career, but he has nonetheless managed decent overall numbers. Most recently, he piled up 174 2/3 frames of 3.81 ERA/4.66 FIP ball with 8.35 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9 last year. The FIP doesn’t look appealing, but that particular statistic has never been bullish on Teheran, who has consistently found a way to outdo it in the ERA department. Teheran’s the owner of a lifetime 3.67 ERA – a number the Angels would surely sign up for in 2020. He’ll first have to get over this injury, though.

Brodie Van Wagenen Provides J.D. Davis Update

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The Mets received generally promising news on the shoulder health of corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen spoke with reporters including Tim Healey of Newsday (who provides a video on Twitter).

Davis underwent an MRI today. While the readout did identify some potential “previous injury” to Davis’s labrum, per Van Wagenen, that wasn’t deemed to be of concern. Davis “wasn’t symptomatic of anything beforehand” and the MRI “didn’t really show any new structural damage to his shoulder,” the GM explained.

Since the imaging also “didn’t show a ton of inflammation,” per Van Wagenen, Davis can begin the rehab process right away. Precisely when he will fully resume baseball activities remains to be seen; the current plan is for the team to re-assess the matter in one week’s time.

Davis says he has some aches and is “a little weak” in the shoulder, but has full range of motion and is generally “feeling alright.” (Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News provided video via Twitter.) While he’s feeling some sense of relief, the 26-year-old is still waiting to see how he progresses before declaring victory. Fortunately, so long as he bounces back at a reasonable pace, there’s certainly still a clear path for Davis to be ready to go at the start of the season.

Alex Anthopoulos: No Concern On Freeman’s Elbow

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Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos said today that Freddie Freeman’s surgically repaired elbow is “not a concern.” Freeman was scratched from his start yesterday after experiencing inflammation. (Video via 680 The Fan, on Twitter.)

The reassurances from the GM are nice, but the real key here is that Dr. David Altchek — who performed Freeman’s bone spur removal procedure over the offseason — is evidently not worried. Even consulting with the surgeon was considered an exceedingly cautious step, Anthopoulos suggested. Altchek indicated that this sort of swelling is just part of the long-term recovery process.

While Freeman would prefer to jump right back into action, Anthopoulos says the team will exercise continued caution. The plan is to let the slugger rest for the remainder of the week and “get him back in there next week.”

Going forward, the team doesn’t anticipate any special care. But it’ll be proactive in doling out rest since there’s so much time left before the start of the season. And Anthopoulos noted that Freeman will need to communicate any issues that do arise. Otherwise, says Anthopoulos, “if doctors aren’t concerned then we’re not.”

MLB Teams Reportedly Pursuing Pre-Arb Extension Blitz

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Pre-arbitration extensions aren’t exactly a new phenomenon. We’ve seen an increasing number of long-term deals with newer MLB players — and even pre-MLB players — over the past decade or so. (Way back in 2013, for instance, I referred to a “baseball-wide trend of … early extensions.”) Last winter featured a dizzying number of extensions, including quite a few involving players that hadn’t yet cracked into the big-dollar earnings stages of their careers.

Some further contracts of that kind were to be expected. But we could be seeing yet more expansion of the kinds of players targeted. The early-career extensions inked by still-youthful reliever Aaron Bummer and swingman Freddy Peralta may only be the tip of the iceberg, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan indicates on Twitter.

It seems there’s something potentially afoot that goes beyond typical team-by-team extension targeting. Passan says that “teams across baseball are trying to lock up pre-arbitration players,” specifically, and that “there could be a rash of such deals in the coming weeks.”

This evidently widespread effort is all the more interesting given the marked open-market shift observed in the just-completed offseason. In each of the two prior winters, free agents — even high-end, younger ones — were approached with obvious reluctance. But MLB teams attacked the 2019-20 market vigorously, doling out both market-moving superstar deals and a series of hefty, lengthy payouts to quality older veterans.

It goes without saying that it’s good for business for a MLB organization to put a quality product on the field. But doing so consistently and in a cost-efficient manner is the gold standard. That’s also naturally quite challenging, since a baseball season is not only a zero-sum game but one that can swing upon innumerable, not-always-controllable factors.

Teams understandably prefer only to enter competitive bidding situations for free agents as needed. It’s not difficult to recognize a team’s potential upside in drafting (or trading for), developing, and then extending a player at an early enough stage in his MLB career that it can lock in low-cost, productive seasons for many years to come. There are obvious risks here as well. The Yankees-Luis Severino extension seemed a slam dunk but has been gutted by unfortunate injuries. But that deal could easily still pay out. Even if it doesn’t, it’d equate to whiffing on a good but not great free agent signing.

Anyway, all of that has long been appreciated and acted upon by MLB teams. So, what to watch for the rest of this spring? Beyond the obvious — whether specific young stars will be approached and wooed — it’ll be interesting to find out how far teams can take this approach. Remember: it’s still unclear just how certain major issues — the next CBA, the lively ball, universal DH, robo umps — will be resolved in the near term. Will there be a chase for upside or an attempt to lock in reasonable rates of pay for solid pieces? Will teams look to get a jump on anticipated changes to the labor market? MLB organizations also value roster flexibility and will be loath to tie up future payroll to non-productive players. Much remains to be seen, but it appears we’re in for another lively and interesting extension season this spring.

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