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Archives for July 2021

Brewers Sign Top Two Draft Picks

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The Brewers announced agreements with their top two picks from this year’s draft: Sal Frelick and Tyler Black. Frelick’s bonus landed at an even $4MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com, while Black’s deal came in at $2.2022MM (Twitter links).

The fifteenth overall pick, with which Frelick was selected, came with a $3.8858MM slot value. The former Boston College outfielder lands a bit overslot. Frelick was seen as one of the top college position players in the class. He draws praise for his hit tool from the left-handed batter’s box and athleticism. A high-end runner, Frelick moved to center field from the corner outfield for the Eagles this season and flashed potential plus defensive ability at the position.

Listed at 5’9″, Frelick isn’t expected to hit for a ton of power. But his combination of bat-to-ball skills, baserunning and defensive ability placed him among the top ten talents in the class, in the estimation of each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs. Over three seasons in one of college baseball’s best conferences (the ACC), Frelick hit .345/.435/.521.

While Frelick’s bonus came in a bit above slot, Black’s deal lands right at the value associated with the #33 overall pick. A second baseman from Wright State University, the lefty-hitting Black posted an absurd .353/.468/.612 line over three seasons with the Raiders. That production is no doubt inflated by the subpar pitching he often faced in the Horizon League, but most evaluators remain convicted in his hitting ability. He landed among the top 35 prospects in the pre-draft rankings at the Athletic and FanGraphs based on his advanced hit tool and exceptional feel for the strike zone.

Spencer Turnbull To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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The Tigers’ rotation received some brutal news, as manager A.J. Hinch announced to reporters that right-hander Spencer Turnbull will require Tommy John surgery (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). The surgery will end Turnbull’s 2021 season and keep him out for the majority of the 2022 season as well.

It’s awful news for the player and a major blow to the Tigers as they begin to look toward turning the corner from their rebuild. The 28-year-old Turnbull established himself as an MLB-caliber hurler back in 2019 and has steadily improved since — culminating in this year’s no-hitter against the Mariners. Prior to landing on the injured list, he’d pitched to a 2.88 ERA with a below-average 21.9 percent strikeout rate, an excellent 6.0 percent walk rate and a huge 57.2 percent ground-ball rate. Dating back to 2019, Turnbull owns a 4.13 ERA in 255 innings.

The Tigers control Turnbull through the 2024 season, so there’s plenty of time for him to return to health and still make an impact with the club — if not in 2022 then certainly in 2023. In the meantime, he’ll head into his first trip through arbitration this winter with a strong but brief platform showing. He won’t have much of a chance in 2022 to build up innings and make a case for a substantial raise, making the injury a particularly poorly timed one from a financial perspective.

It’s also possible that were Turnbull healthy and continuing to thrive, as he had earlier this season, the Tigers would’ve been overwhelmed by a trade offer from a pitching-starved contender. Starting pitching is at a premium every year, but the supply is particularly thin in 2021 — and demand could be more robust than in a typical season. With three-plus years of club control remaining, the price would’ve been sky-high, but today’s injuries effectively removes the possibility altogether.

Giants Interested In Starling Marte

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The Giants are a “key” team to watch as the Marlins market center fielder Starling Marte in the coming weeks, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Miami and Marte recently halted extension talks, and Mish now adds that the team balked at guaranteeing the 32-year-old Marte a fourth year on the contract.

Giants center fielders, buoyed by Steven Duggar’s recent hot streak, are hitting .262/.337/.420 on the season, but Duggar’s .398 average on balls in play and 31.8 percent strikeout rate point to some likely regression on the horizon. Left field has actually been a bigger issue, as the Giants have put together a collective .219/.295/.394 batting line from that position. Those struggles have come in large part due to Alex Dickerson, who could stand to lose some playing time in the event of an acquisition of Marte or another outfielder.

Marte, a free agent at season’s end, is earning $12.5MM this season and is still owed about $5MM of that sum through season’s end ($4.37MM from the point of the deadline). He’s hitting .288/.389/.447 with a career-best 11.8 percent walk rate, seven homers and 19 stolen bases through 245 plate appearances so far in 2021. He missed about five weeks with a fractured rib earlier in the season but has looked healthy and productive since returning at the end of May.

From a payroll vantage point, the Giants needn’t have any concerns acquiring Marte or nearly any other player. San Francisco has about $151MM on the books for 2021 and only about $158MM worth of luxury-tax obligations, leaving them miles from the $210MM barrier. This is also an ownership group that has, in the past, given the green light to payrolls in excess of $200MM, so there’s ample room to take on salary in any deal.

The Giants have a solid farm system, though when we’re talking about one rental player, a deep stock of minor league prospects isn’t required anyhow. Mish suggests that top outfield prospect Heliot Ramos, in particular, is of interest to the Marlins — but that’d be a rather steep price to pay for a Marte rental. The Marlins have some relievers who could pique the Giants’ interest, though; Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt quite familiar with former Dodgers Yimi Garcia and Dylan Floro from his days in the Los Angeles front office, for instance.

Miami is also deep in young starting pitching. For a Giants club that could see nearly all of its rotation reach free agency this winter — Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Johnny Cueto and Aaron Sanchez are all free agents — the Marlins and their impressive crop of young starting pitching seem like a strong trade partner.

Because of the lack of center fielders on the market, the Giants will have plenty of competition for Marte. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, the Phillies and the Astros, and there are several other contenders who could look for help in center field — or just the outfield in general. Marte is certainly a capable defender in center, but he’d fit nicely in a corner for a team looking to more generally upgrade its lineup. The Padres are reportedly looking into some upgrades in right field. The Mets have been linked to center field help throughout the season, and the White Sox have been hit hard with outfield injuries, too. The Giants are as strong a fit as anyone, but the competition will be significant.

Latest On Yankees’ Search For Outfield Help

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The Yankees’ recent pair of wins against the division-leading Red Sox helped to keep their postseason hopes alive, and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes that they’re looking for adding outfield help as the trade deadline approaches. Specifically, the Yankees would like to acquire someone who can handle center field.

Center field is an obvious, glaring need in the Bronx. Yankees center fielders are hitting just .183/.290/.309 on the season, and the resulting 70 wRC+ ranks 29th among the 30 MLB clubs. Aaron Hicks is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his wrist, and the subsequent cast of replacements hasn’t picked up the slack.

New York was already reported to have shown interest in Marlins center fielder Starling Marte, who is likely to be traded now that Miami’s hopes of getting him to sign an extension have been dashed. (Given the reported three years and roughly $30MM term, that should come as no surprise.) Sherman again connects the Yankees to Joey Gallo, who has some center field experience, and he adds that they’ve “wondered” about Minnesota’s Max Kepler — another strong defensive right fielder who has some experience playing center.

Marte would represent a pure rental for the Yankees — albeit an excellent one. He’s slashed at a .288/.389/.457 clip so far in 2021 while clubbing seven home runs and swiping 19 bases along the way. He’s owed about $5MM of this year’s $12.5MM salary between now and season’s end, although by the deadline, that sum would dip to about $4.37MM.

From a luxury tax standpoint, Marte is in the final year of a contract that wound up paying him $51MM over an eight-year term — an annual rate of $6.375MM. Prorating that luxury hit for the remainder of the season would mean about $2.22MM at the deadline or about $2.57MM as of today. Sherman notes that the Yankees have “about” $3MM in luxury breathing room — Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has them around $3.5MM shy of the threshold — so Marte could technically fit into the budget without taking the Yankees over the line.

Both Gallo and Kepler are imperfect fits. Gallo is the far likelier of the two to be traded and, at $6.2MM in 2021, is a near-match with Marte in terms of luxury calculations. He’d give the Yankees a much-needed left-handed bat (unlike Marte), but he’s a better defender in right field and will likely have one of the higher asking prices among viable trade chips in the coming weeks. Gallo would add another three-true-outcome type of hitter to a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in walk rate and ranks ninth in homers and strikeout rate. Gallo is controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season.

Kepler, 28, is in the third season of a five-year, $35MM contract. He’s owed about $2.62MM through season’s end and is still owed $6.75MM in 2022 and $8.5MM in 2023. There’s a $10MM option with a $1MM buyout for the 2024 season.

Kepler missed a month with a hamstring injury earlier in the year and is batting just .207/.296/.427 in 243 plate appearances on the year. Kepler looked to be emerging from that slump with a hot few weeks after returning from the injured list in June, but he’s fallen back into an 0-for-15 skid at the plate. At his best, Kepler is an impact defender with a strong walk rate and plenty of power, as evidenced by his .252/.336/.519, 36-homer season back in 2019. The Twins probably don’t love the idea of selling low on him, and the Yankees may not want to roll the dice on a rebound for a currently struggling player anyhow.

If  anything, the mention of Kepler is interesting for the fact that it illustrates the wide net being cast by the Yankees in their search. Out-of-the-box candidates figure to emerge — particularly if the team plans to remain below the luxury threshold. Owner Hal Steinbrenner recently voiced a willingness to cross that barrier, but the Yankees’ offseason moves were all made with the idea of avoiding the tax.

Royals Place Danny Duffy On Injured List

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The Royals announced Tuesday that they’ve placed left-hander Danny Duffy and right-hander Brady Singer on the 10-day injured list. Duffy is dealing with a left flexor strain, while Singer is dealing with right shoulder fatigue. Righty Tyler Zuber and first baseman/outfielder Ryan McBroom were recalled from Triple-A in a pair of corresponding moves.

Duffy, 32, spent May 12 through June 23 on the injured list with this same injury. He’d returned to post a 3.72 ERA in 19 1/3 innings across five starts and one relief appearance. Overall, he’s pitched to a 2.51 ERA with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate and an 8.7 percent walk rate through 61 innings this season.

Given the Royals’ poor season and Duffy’s status as a pending free agent, there was some speculation that he could be moved in the coming days. Between Duffy’s health in 2021, his previously vocal stance on spending his whole career in Kansas City, and the fact that he can veto any trade as a 10-and-5 player, a trade might not have been especially likely anyhow. However, this latest IL stint seems to all but eliminate the possibility of a deal coming together.

With the elimination of August trade waivers, there’d be no possibility of Duffy changing hands following the July 30 deadline. He’ll play out the final season of a five-year, $65MM contract extension he signed prior to the 2017 season and reach the open market. That said, the Royals will be in the market for pitching help this winter and could very well look to bring Duffy back on a new contract as a free agent — assuming the current flexor strain doesn’t prove to be too severe, of course.

It’s been an up-and-down season for the 24-year-old Singer, who was hit hard in his season debut before settling into a nice groove. Singer posted excellent numbers in April, struggled immensely in May, and had a solid-but-unspectacular showing in June. That had all balanced out to a 4.52 ERA and a 3.84 FIP through July 7. However, Singer was blown up for seven runs in two innings against the Orioles in his most recent outing, sending his season ERA soaring to 5.13.

The obvious hope for Singer and the Royals is that this does prove to be nothing more than fatigue. While they’re 18 games under .500 and clearly not postseason contenders in 2021, Singer is a former first-round pick and top prospect who is viewed as a key long-term piece for the Royals’ rotation. He logged a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts last year in his Major League debut and is controlled all the way through the 2025 season.

Pirates Sign Anthony Solometo

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9:51am: MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets that Solometo’s bonus is $2.8MM, so he took home a bit more than $800K over slot.

9:44am: The Pirates announced this morning that they’ve signed left-hander Anthony Solometo, who was their second-round pick in the 2021 amateur draft. The team unsurprisingly didn’t include bonus details, but Solometo’s No. 37 slot comes with a $1.999MM value.

Solometo, 18, was ranked as one of the top high school arms in this year’s draft but slipped to the second round. As such, signing Solometo away from his commitment to North Carolina may require the Bucs to go over that $2MM slot value. They’ll have the resources to do just that after top pick Henry Davis’ signing bonus checked in roughly $1.9MM under slot, however.

Heading into the draft Solometo was ranked 17th on MLB.com’s list of draft prospects, 20th at The Athletic, 28th at Baseball America, 34th at FanGraphs and 35th at ESPN. He earns praise for a fastball that’s reached 94-95 mph — though it currently sits lower than that — and a slider that grades out as a potential plus offering as well. MLB.com and FanGraphs note that Solometo’s delivery draws comparisons to that of Madison Bumgarner.

Solometo was the second of four highly touted players the Pirates secured at the top of their draft class. While Davis was at least a moderate surprise with the top overall pick — he was expected to go somewhere in the top five or so picks regardless — that selection might’ve helped the Bucs save enough to go over slot on their next three picks. Each of Solometo, Lonnie White Jr. and Bubba Chandler were high school players with first- or second-round potential, and Pittsburgh has drawn a good bit of praise for maneuvering to land that trio and Davis with the team’s top four selections.

Twins Set Lofty Asking Price On Jose Berrios

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The Twins’ woeful season has them positioned as deadline sellers, but there’s no guarantee they’ll move anyone controlled beyond the 2021 campaign. Minnesota entered the season on the heels of a pair of division titles, and the Twins have ample payroll space this winter as well as a core of controllable young players. The toughest choices for the Twins’ front office will be how to proceed with a group of players controlled only through the 2022 season — right-hander Jose Berrios chief among them.

Berrios has already drawn interest from multiple teams, and with good reason. The 27-year-old has pitched to a 3.48 ERA with a career-best 25.9 percent strikeout rate and a seven percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career) through 108 2/3 innings. That innings tally ranks sixth in the American League and underscores the durability of Berrios, who is tenth in all of baseball in innings pitched dating back to 2017 and has never been on the Major League injured list.

The Twins have tried in the past to sign Berrios to a long-term deal, but he’s been vocal about wanting to advance the market for starting pitchers and now, 15 months from reaching free agency, sounds as though he’s far from inclined to take any sort of deal on an extension.

“[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value,” Berrios told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune this weekend. “So it’s different now. We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be.”

Berrios added that there haven’t been any extension talks but said he likes Minnesota and would be open should the Twins approach him with another extension scenario at some point. Putting together what would need to be a market-value extension before the July 30 trade deadline seems unlikely — particularly with the front office dedicating a good chunk of its time to exploring trades for rental players and also talking extension with center fielder Byron Buxton. Berrios, who has a 3.76 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates over the past five seasons, surely took notice when Zack Wheeler inked a five-year, $118MM deal with the Phillies on the heels of a similar statistical track record (but with less durability).

Even if the two sides don’t come to terms on a contract extension, however, a Berrios trade is far from a foregone conclusion. Again, the Twins likely hope to contend in 2022, and Berrios would be a big part of that effort while pitching at an affordable rate. He’s earning $6MM in 2021, and even when that number soars beyond $10MM in his final offseason of arbitration, he’d be a bargain relative to his open-market value.

That makes him a highly desirable trade piece but also gives the Twins the ability to set a high asking price. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the Twins’ initial ask in return for Berrios from one interested team was a pre-arbitration player on the Major League roster and a pair of top 100 prospects. That meshes with reports from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the New York Post that the Twins’ asking price on Berrios has been sky-high. Given the general dearth of impact starters on the trade market and the Twins’ outlook for the 2022 season, it’s understandable that they’d effectively be asking for a king’s ransom to relinquish Berrios.

Broadly speaking, it’d be a surprise it the Twins didn’t at the very least move rental pieces like Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda and Hansel Robles in the coming weeks, but the asking price on Berrios will be as high as the asking price on any player who has a chance of being traded between now and July 30.

Draft Signings: 7/19/21

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A few notable draft signings for Day Two selections:

  • The Braves signed right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach to a $1MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That checks in a bit below the $1.1855MM slot value associated with the 59th overall pick. A two-way star at the University of Nebraska, Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher on draft day. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Cornhuskers this season because he was the team’s everyday shortstop, but it’s possible the Braves stretch him out as a starting pitcher in pro ball. Keith Law of the Athletic is particularly bullish on Schwellenbach, ranking him the class’ #29 prospect pre-draft and praising his delivery, mid-90s fastball, and promising secondary pitches.
  • The Cardinals have signed second-rounder Joshua Baez to a $2.25MM bonus, Callis reports. That’s well above the $1.3385MM slot value that accompanies the 54th selection. A corner outfielder from a Massachusetts high school, Baez had been committed to Vanderbilt University. He’s a high-volatility prospect, with some of the best raw power in the class but questions about his hit tool given the lack of quality pitching he faced in the Northeast. Baez’s huge upside earned him spots among the top 35 prospects in the estimation of Law, Baseball America, and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs. St. Louis saved a bit of bonus pool space by going underslot with UCSB right-hander Michael McGreevy in the first round.
  • The Royals came to a $1MM agreement with fourth-rounder Shane Panzini, Callis reports. That’s nearly double the $538.2K slot value that comes with the 108th selection. Kansas City’s clearly more bullish than most public evaluators on Panzini, who came in at #239 in Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA noted that the right-hander can get his fastball into the mid-90s and has a clean delivery, but expressed concerns about his lack of impactful secondary pitches and advanced age for a prep draftee (he turns 20 in October). Nevertheless, the Royals were comfortable offering the New Jersey native seven figures to forego his commitment to the University of Virginia.

Carlos Martinez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martínez has undergone surgery to repair a ligament tear in his right thumb, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Zachary Silver of MLB.com) this afternoon. Martínez was already known to be facing an extended absence — he landed on the 60-day injured list two weeks ago — but it’s nevertheless a disappointing development for the 29-year-old.

It’s not clear whether the procedure officially rules Martínez out for the remainder of the season, but that doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable assumption. If Martínez’s season is finished, it’s quite possible he’s already made his last appearance as a Cardinal. St. Louis has a $17MM club option on his services for 2022, but that’s a near lock to be bought out for $500K instead. Martínez’s performance before he suffered the injury simply hasn’t warranted that kind of financial outlay.

Martínez was a productive mid-rotation starter for much of his early career with the Cardinals. That earned him a five-year, $51MM extension in February 2017 that guaranteed he’d spend at least the first nine years of his big league career in St. Louis. Martínez continued to pitch at a high level through 2019 (spending that season in the bullpen) but has struggled mightily over the last two years. Between 2020-21, Martínez has pitched to a 6.95 ERA/5.18 FIP over 102 1/3 innings, with his once-strong strikeout numbers tailing off.

A lack of starting pitching depth has plagued the Cardinals all season, thanks in part to Martínez’s struggles. St. Louis was known to be on the hunt for pitching help last month, but it’s not clear the club will be in position to buy at the trade deadline. The Cardinals entered play tonight with a 46-47 record; that’s tied with the Cubs for third place in the NL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Brewers. They’re 7.5 back in the Wild Card race, with the Reds and Phillies also between them and the Padres, who currently hold the final playoff position.

Even if the Cardinals don’t wind up being buyers, the organization looks more likely to stand pat in advance of the July 30 trade deadline than orchestrate any type of sell off. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested last weekend selling wasn’t on the table.

As Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat explores, there wouldn’t be a ton of obvious trade candidates on the St. Louis roster even if Mozeliak were more amenable to moving some veterans. A majority of the club’s key players are under team control through 2022, and St. Louis is certainly not about to embark on a full rebuild. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Andrew Miller are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, but all three have full no-trade rights — Molina and Wainwright based on their MLB service time, Miller through the terms of his free agent contract. Trading franchise icons like Molina or Wainwright midseason probably wouldn’t be under consideration for the front office regardless.

The one player on the Cardinals who stands out as the most obvious potential trade candidate is southpaw Kwang-hyun Kim. The 32-year-old has performed well over his first two seasons since coming over from the KBO, and he’s ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. There’d surely be demand from contenders seeking pitching help, but it seems there’s a potential obstacle to any Kim deal. A source close to Kim tells Jones the left-hander might consider opting out of the rest of the season and returning to his native South Korea if the Cardinals traded him. If that’s indeed the case, it’d essentially kill any chance of him getting dealt.

Royals Sign Second-Round Pick Ben Kudrna To Overslot Deal

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The Royals have signed second-round draft pick Ben Kudrna for a $3MM signing bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s nearly double the $1.7298MM slot value associated with the 43rd overall selection.

Kansas City managed to meet the LSU commit’s asking price thanks to their underslot agreement with first-rounder Frank Mozzicato. The Royals inked Mozzicato to a $3.55MM bonus last weekend, nearly $2MM south of the slot value accompanying the #7 pick — an unsurprising development since most public evaluators projected the lefty as a late first round talent. By taking Mozzicato and Kudrna, the Royals elected to divide the bulk of their bonus pool nearly equally to a pair off well-regarded prep pitchers, rather than locking in on one blue chip prospect at the top of the class.

As their similar bonuses indicate, Mozzicato and Kudrna are seen by public evaluators as being a similar caliber of prospect. (Keith Law of the Athletic actually had Kudrna slightly ahead of Mozzicato on his pre-draft rankings). Law, Baseball America and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs all placed Kudrna between 40th and 60th in this year’s class. By all accounts, the Kansas righty’s a fairly prototypical high school projection arm with a good frame and delivery, low-90s velocity, and the makings of a pair of quality secondary pitches.

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