Noah Syndergaard is close to returning and might jump straight to the big leagues without another rehab assignment, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The fireballer has had no shortage of obstacles to deal with this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2020 and started his first rehab stint in May of this year. Unfortunately, that assignment was stopped when Syndergaard experienced some elbow inflammation and he didn’t get back on the mound until late August. Due to the small amount of time remaining in the season, the plan then was for him to return as a reliever, rather than the lengthier process of getting stretched out to start. But that second rehab assignment was shut down when he tested positive for COVID-19.
Despite the fact that there are only two weeks left in the MLB season now and the Mets seem to be fading out of the playoff picture, Syndergaard’s form in the remaining games is potentially very important for both he and the team. The 29-year-old is about to enter free agency and is a candidate for a qualifying offer. The quality and quantity of his appearances in the next two weeks could impact the club’s decision about whether or not to hand him that qualifying offer, as well as Syndergaard’s decision about whether or not to accept it.
More injury notes from around the league…
- Johnny Cueto is nearing a rehab assignment, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. The 35-year-old has been out since September 1st with an elbow strain but is scheduled to throw a bullpen tomorrow. It’s unclear what the rehab plan for Cueto is, but there’s not a lot of time left in the season for him to be stretched out as a starter. The Giants have largely been able to weather the storm without him, clinging to a narrow lead in the NL West in spite of having the occasional bullpen game. The club has of late been using a four-man rotation of Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani. Cueto has been solid when healthy this season, throwing 112 1/3 innings with an ERA of 4.09.
- The plan for Stephen Strasburg is for him to begin throwing in November and be ready for spring training, Nationals manager Dave Martinez tells Todd Dybas of Inside the Clubhouse. Despite the Nationals stripping things down at this year’s deadline, it seems the club may be attempting a quick return to contention, as evidenced by their holding onto Juan Soto and targeting MLB-ready returns in their trades. A big wild card in that plan will be Strasburg’s health. The 33-year-old is a dominant pitcher when at his best, as evidenced by his excellent 2019 season, wherein he threw 209 innings with an ERA of 3.32 and then added 36 1/3 postseason innings with an ERA of 1.98, helping the club win the World Series and garnering himself World Series MVP honors. It was on the heels of that incredible performance that the Nationals and Strasburg agreed to a seven-year, $245MM contract. However, since then, the righty has only been able to throw 26 2/3 innings due to various injuries, most recently going under the knife for neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome.
You got to feel for Thor. He will definitely not be getting as big of a contract as he hoped. I don’t want him to reinjure himself trying to prove something.
Do ya think he gets the QO from the Mets?
I think so, but it’s a tough choice to be honest. Who knows what you’re getting out of Thor anymore? Significant risk factor, but he has such potential.
Why would Thor agree to accept a QO when there is chance he gets a multi year contract for 15 M a year? With this injury history he should take a lesser yearly salary for a longer guarantee. I can see a few teams going 4 years.
Who gives him a huge deal now? He hasn’t pitched in over 2 seasons. Taking the QO allows him to prove to other teams he’s ready for a huge contract. I think he gambles on himself for 1 season in order to get a massive contract later.
If he feels he can bet on himself and earn a better deal when teams don’t have to worry about losing a pick for signing someone under a QO, he’d accept it. The problem with the MLB system is that you get a small window to decide whether to accept the QO. It should be open at least until Spring Training, then maybe get cut in half before it disappears at the start of the season.
The Phillies after they dump Hoskins
Phillies will technically have a solid rotation without needing to splurge. Wheeler, Nola, Eflin, Gibson, Suarez. Sure you can improve the backend, but they won’t need to spend big on Thor.
Because he locked in 19M for one year, then gives himself the chance to get a 5-6 year deal at 25M+ next year?
15M per for 4 years is locking yourself into a contract you feel you’re underpaid, and you’d be walking away from more money year 1 to year 1. As a pro athlete, wouldn’t you bet on yourself, if the gap was so wide? 4/60 to 5/125 is a heckuva gap
He’ll take the QO cuz he’s the type to bet on himself. Take 19 million for one year then get at least 15 mil a year on a contract after that. Probably more.
And with a huge injury history, next year could be his last year. Huge gamble on his end.
If he turns down a QO, what team will sign him knowing a draft pick is involved. And QO is around $17+ a year. Why take $15.
I might add, with escalators on the number of starts and an option out after the second year if he starts, say 50 games. He would be a fool not to take this over a QO.
He’ll bet on himself. Incredibly unlikely that next year is his last. Even Harvey got a few more contracts and his trajectory was much more downward and his surgery much more of an unknown. Plenty of TJ surgery guys miss this much time and almost all return eventually. Taking the QO isn’t really much of a gamble. Who is really gonna give him more? Plus, if he does pitch well on a 15 per contract he’s losing a lot there. Really accepting the QO is the smart move.
He’s not going get that, nor will NYM give him a QO.
I’m pretty sure he’s getting the QO but you could be right.
Cosmo plenty of guys have an off year coming back from TJ. He is highly damaged goods now.
What team is giving him an offer like that? The team is taking on all of the risk.
@dodger – no one is giving him a multi year deal at 15M per. He’s taking the QO if offered and will attempt to prove himself for a better/larger deal than 4 years at 15m per.
I think there’s no choice. He HAS to get the offer.
Dodger: Yep. But I think the Mets are gonna overlook that and QO him. An off year can still produce value.
very unlikely he get’s the deal he’s seeking. The answer to your question, “Why would he?” he wouldn’t, but he will if he get nothing else.
@before, I agree, Thor should bet on himself. He could skip the QO though, and sign a four year with opt-outs. If he isn’t pitching great he gets that 4/60 but if he’s lights out again in year one, he opts out and hit FA again hoping for for another 4/100 or 5/125
Who is gonna give him that though? No one, I wouldn’t think. If he’s good he’s gone and, ok, you got a good pitcher for 15 mil or so but if he sucks you’re stuck paying 60 mil for crap. Why would anyone do that?
Definitely, regardless of his performance in the last couple weeks. It’s more important for him to return and pitch well to increase his value.
Strasburg’s contract immediately became the worst contract in baseball the moment he signed it. The Nationals dodged a bullet when he opted out of the last $175 million. Then they swiftly picked up a larger caliber weapon, pointed it at their payroll and pulled the trigger. They should have known more than anyone Strasburg will never stay healthy for more than one season. They should have known more than anyone that Strasburg’s 2019 season was going to always end up being the best season of his career. I think they just had that world series front office hangover a lot of teams get. They just wanted to bring back the same exact team that won it the season before at any cost. They forgot they only made it in as a wild card and that even the exact same team probably wouldn’t win it again. They forgot Strasburg can never stay healthy and wouldn’t in the future like he didn’t in the past. Now the $70-80 million a year they are paying to useless players like Strasburg and Corbin have turned them into one of the worst teams in baseball. At least the Orioles and Pirates can finish in last place without spending any money. Spending a ton of cash like the Nats to finish in last place is just plain stupid.
I do feel for him but having his ego taken down a peg might actually do him some good. He needs to be more coachable.
Syndergaard’s contract situation is about the only reason where it makes sense for him to return.
There’s a bit of a psychological reason too, to simply take the mound again, face major league hitters after being away from the game the last two seasons and before the long offseason begins. It may seem minor to us, but I have heard pitchers recovering from TJS say it was important to them as part of their recovery.
Essentially a paid showcase for other teams or to convince the Mets to QO him. No reason for him not to return unless he plays winter ball.
That actually makes sense. Thanks for the reply!
Has anyone ever gotten a multi year deal after not pitching for two full seasons? The QO seems like a no brainer because on the open market there’s a chance he gets under $10m. If there’s no history of a multi year deals without pitching in two seasons I find it hard to believe teams would start now. Syndergaard was a good pitcher for the Mets but it’s not like he was great. Everyone saying Thor should turn it down for a multi year less AAV like that would even be offered.
The best Thor can do for leverage is what Wil Smith did, tell everyone bring your best offer within the 10 day QO range and I’m deciding in that 10 days.
Only one I can think of is Zach wheeler. But had time to rebuild his value. But he has a solid enough track record that he should get at least a mccullers type deal. 4/85 or somewhere around that.
Wheeler wasn’t out 2 full seasons before his huge deal.
Noah Syndergaard has not pitched at the MLB level since 2019 when the righthander posted an ERA of 4.28 and an ERA+ of 98 in 32 starts.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/syndeno01.shtml
A four-year contract at this stage would be a huge gamble for any team.
I don’t see any team going 4 years on him. 2, 3 maybe. I’m leaning towards him getting the QO & accepting it
Yea I’m pretty sure he gets offered the QO and accepts. Incredibly unlikely he turns it down. He’s young enough to get a big deal in a year and a half if he pitches at all to expectations.
He was quoted as saying that he really wants to stay in New York – so I think he’ll accept the QO and stick around.
Arte Moreno will offer 5 years/130 mil
Would probably be one of his smarter gambles. But of course he won’t. Won’t even get the chance.
I could see a contender splurging on a 20MM+ one-year deal. That would be a creative gamble. But I think Thor takes the QO before that happens.
Mets would be wise not to get all caught up in public opinion regarding Thor. He has shown flashes of brilliance but has not shown a willingness to learn how to pitch. He relies upon 100 mph fastballs which may have been a distinction several years ago but today are common. His effectiveness in many of his starts just prior to his injury lasted maybe three innings before becoming mortal and quite hitable. If the Mets keep Thor they better hope he buys into the idea of going to the bullpen and becoming.a closer.
As per my above comment this may help take Thor’s ego down a peg and make him more coachable. Maybe. I love the idea of him becoming a closer and I do think it might be what’s best, but I doubt either side is into that.
Thinking there’s no way Thor declines a QO if it is extended. But I said the same thing about Stroman a year ago, the Mets extended a QO anyway and Thor is probably a more attractive QO candidate than Stroman was a year ago.
The god of war’s 29 years old and is 47 – 30 for his career. Nice W-L but really? @ 29? Who’s going to give him a 4 year contract?
I don’t think his age or his won loss record factors in at all. It’s injury history vs talent potential.
Thor hasn’t been an elite pitcher since 2018. Why is he worth 19 million? 2019 was average at best. I think a four year contract with escalators (depending on starts) and an opt out after the second year is what his agent should be aiming for. There is no reasonable expectation that 2022 will be an elite year when you see what he did in 2019.
Why would he accept a 4 year deal with escalators? Yeah, 2019 was not good, but that could be due to what led to his TJS. His career up to, and including 2018, was excellent. He had a 2.93 ERA, a 2.66 FIP and a 132 ERA+ over that span. I think teams will see 2019 as one mediocre year, and not, him not being an elite pitcher since 2018.
I see no reason why the Mets wouldn’t offer a QO. And if they surprisingly don’t, he should have no problem finding a one year pillow contract to rebuild value. If he does that, betting on himself, he could potentially do much better than a 4 year deal with escalators.
It’s the going rate for starting pitching. If he was elite, he’d be making twice that.
I believe the going rate for a FA coming right off of Tommy John is about 10M per season. According to an old MLBTR post, Smyley and Pineda got 10 right off of TJS.
The Mets, I think, have really signaled they’re going to offer Noah a QO as you gotta figure they tendered him a 10M contract for this year, and despite hoping they would get Noah back in July or August, any baseball operations expert, would have to assume the worst case scenario that what if we get 0 innings out of Noah.
Seems like the option really is offer him a QO and potentially overpay him what he would otherwise likely get on the FA market (less that 19M for 1 year) or let Noah walk and get nothing having already invested 10M this year.