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Archives for September 2021

Rays Prospect Cole Wilcox Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Steve Adams | September 10, 2021 at 11:16am CDT

Top Rays pitching prospect Cole Wilcox underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday this week, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). That’ll quite likely wipe out his entire 2022 campaign.

Wilcox, 22, came to the Rays as one of the key young pieces in the trade that sent lefty Blake Snell to San Diego. He was a third-round pick, selected No. 80 overall, just last summer — although that draft placement is somewhat misleading. Wilcox, a draft-eligible sophomore last summer, was widely viewed as a first-round talent but slipped down the draft board due to signability concerns. The Friars gave him a $3.3MM signing bonus — a record number for a third-round selection.

The Padres added Wilcox to their 60-man player pool last year and let him work out with at their alternate site over the course of the summer, but last year’s nixed minor league season meant that the former Georgia Bulldogs righty didn’t make his professional debut until this year with the Rays’ Class-A affiliate. Wilcox looked every bit like a first-round talent when cruising through A-ball lineups. In 44 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 2.03 ERA with an impressive 29.9 percent strikeout rate and an incredibly low 2.9 percent walk rate.

Wilcox only recently turned 22, so he’ll still be just 23 years of age when he returns to the mound — presumably early in the 2023 campaign. Obviously, it’s not ideal for a promising young pitcher to effectively lose two seasons of development (2020 and 2022, in this case), but Wilcox has age on his side. Assuming he’s able to pitch a mostly full season in 2023, he’ll likely be added to Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster in the 2023-24 offseason, as he’d otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft that winter.

Even with Wilcox sidelined next season, the Rays have an impressive crop of rising young arms to tap into both in 2022 and in 2023. Luis Patino (also acquired in the Snell deal) and Shane McClanahan have already made an impact at the MLB level, and top prospect Shane Baz likely isn’t too far behind. Right-hander Seth Johnson, like Wilcox, has yet to pitch beyond Class-A, but the 2019 No. 40 overall selection has upped his prospect stock with an outstanding showing in A-ball this season.

Tampa Bay did trade away a pair of nearly MLB-ready arms — Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman — in order to acquire Nelson Cruz, but it seems we can scarcely go a year without a pop-up pitching prospect or two in the Rays’ perennially deep farm system garnering national attention. Recent trades and the loss of Wilcox notwithstanding, the Rays still boast a deep farm system that’ll continue to be ranked among the game’s best.

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Tampa Bay Rays Cole Wilcox

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Chris Sale Tests Positive For Covid-19

By Steve Adams | September 10, 2021 at 10:24am CDT

Red Sox Chris Sale has tested positive for Covid-19 and will not make his scheduled start Sunday, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). He’ll be placed on the Covid-19-related injured list, joining eight other Red Sox players who have either tested positive or are in protocol due to the recent team outbreak in Boston.

Major League Baseball’s health-and-safety protocols for the 2021 season stipulate that Sale will be away from the club for at least 10 days, further straining a rotation that has been heavily impacted by the team’s outbreak. Both Nick Pivetta and Martin Perez are currently on the Covid-related injured list, which has prompted recent starts from Kutter Crawford and Brad Peacock. Perez has been on the IL since Aug. 30 and could be nearing a return, and the Sox also currently have Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi and Tanner Houck in the rotation. The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham further reports that it’s also possible Pivetta could be activated to make Sale’s start Sunday.

The 32-year-old Sale missed the bulk of the 2021 season as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery but has been excellent in five starts since rejoining the team. He’s yet to pitch beyond the sixth inning but carries a 2.52 ERA with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and 5.5 walk percent rate — both quite strong marks — in his first 25 innings since being activated.

The Red Sox have a fairly tenuous hold on the top Wild Card spot in the American League, leading the Yankees by a margin of just one game. Three more teams — Toronto, Seattle and Oakland — are within two games of that second Wild Card spot and within three games of Boston’s top spot. The Sox have managed to remain in competition despite an outbreak that has seen 10 players test positive since late August.

Sale’s positive test comes less than 24 hours after Red Sox right fielder Hunter Renfroe controversially claimed in a WEEI radio appearance with Lou Merloni and Christian Fauria that Major League Baseball had told the Red Sox to “stop testing and just treat the symptoms” (Twitter link with audio). Asked in a follow-up to confirm that MLB had instructed the Red Sox to stop testing, Renfroe replied with a simple, “Yes.”

Both Major League Baseball and the Red Sox moved quickly to refute the claim. Julian McWilliams and Kate McInerny of the Boston Globe cited a league spokesperson who called Renfroe’s claim “completely wrong and inaccurate,” while the team issued a statement indicating it has “been following MLB’s COVID-19 protocols all season long.” The Red Sox added that they have “continued to test and [the league’s] medical staff has been very supportive.”

Renfroe has not further addressed his comments, and there’s been some speculation that he misconstrued the league’s policy of reduced testing frequency for vaccinated, asymptomatic players, which went into place back in June. Under those updated protocols, vaccinated players are not tested for the virus unless they either display symptoms or are deemed a close contact from a person known to have tested positive.

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Boston Red Sox Chris Sale

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Freeman, Braves Still Facing Gap In Extension Talks

By Steve Adams | September 10, 2021 at 9:52am CDT

The Braves have extended a pair of veterans in the past few weeks, inking catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a second two-year, $16MM contract and extending right-hander Charlie Morton on a new one-year deal worth $20MM (plus a $20MM club option for the 2023 season). Atlanta fans, of course, are eagerly awaiting a more sizable investment in cornerstone slugger Freddie Freeman, the reigning National League MVP. While the two sides have talked, however, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that a gap remains, making Freeman increasingly likely to reach the open market at the end of the season, although both parties still hope to ultimately come to an agreement.

That a “gap” exists between the two parties effectively goes without saying. (He’d be signed by now without one.) Still, most Braves fans have been eagerly awaiting a deal, particularly with a pair of recent extensions now on the books, so even the possibility of Freeman actually reaching the market is unsettling. Freeman reaching the free-agent market certainly doesn’t make his departure a foregone conclusion. Talks with other clubs would only increase his leverage in negotiations with the Braves, potentially helping his cause on an eventual new contract.

Freeman, who’ll turn 32 on Sunday, is playing out the final season of an eight-year, $135MM contract extension that, at the time, was an enormous deal relative to contracts signed by peers with similar service time. The Braves were effectively paying full market value for Freeman despite him being years from the open market, and yet it’s still turned out to be a major bargain for the five-time All-Star. Freeman got out to a “slow” start (by his standards, anyway), but he’s absolutely dominated since mid-June. Over the past three calendar months (admittedly, an arbitrary cutoff point), Freeman is hitting .341/.417/.554 with 16 home runs, 15 doubles and a triple in 348 plate appearances.

On the whole, Freeman is hitting .293/.388/.505 with 29 big flies this season. It’s a step down from last season’s ludicrous .341/.462/.640 batting line through all 60 games but is nevertheless exceptional production. That he’ll turn 32 is surely a concern for the Braves, but as has been pointed out here and many other places in the past, it was just two years ago that fellow All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt inked a five-year, $130MM contract extension with the Cardinals that kicked off in his own age-32 season.

That contract is surely a point of comparison for Freeman and his reps at Excel Sports Management. Given last season’s MVP nod and a recent track record that’s even more productive than the excellent run Goldschmidt had leading into his own extension, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Freeman’s camp is looking to top that mark.

From a payroll vantage point, there’s no real difficulty fitting Freeman onto the long-term books. The Braves signed both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to wildly team-friendly contracts, and they’ll see veterans Drew Smyly and Chris Martin come off the books in 2022, trimming $18MM in guarantees.

Much of those savings will be reallocated to arbitration raises for next year’s class, but it should also be pointed out that the Braves don’t have too many large raises to give out. Dansby Swanson will surely get a big bump from this year’s $6MM salary, but their only other particularly sizable raises will go to lefty Max Fried and third baseman Austin Riley. Fried is due a raise on this year’s $3.5MM salary, while Riley will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Not including arbitration raises (but including option buyouts), the Braves currently have about $84MM committed to next year’s payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

Given their current payroll of about $145MM, a new deal for Freeman is more than manageable. Ostensibly, this very situation is where the early extensions inked by Acuna and Albies ought to pay dividends. Having both stars locked up long-term on below-market deals ought to allow the Braves to pay to keep a player like Freeman, who is nearing franchise icon status, for the bulk (or entirety) of his remaining career.

Of course, the Braves have other long-term prospects to consider. Swanson will be a free agent next winter, and Riley is looking increasingly like a player who could be a foundational piece in his own right. At some point, a hard decision or two will need to be made, but it’d be nothing short of stunning to see Freeman actually depart, even if he does reach the open market.

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Atlanta Braves Newsstand Freddie Freeman

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Zack Britton Undergoes Reconstructive Elbow Surgery

By Anthony Franco | September 9, 2021 at 11:10pm CDT

Yankees reliever Zack Britton underwent a reconstructive procedure to repair the UCL in his throwing elbow, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Erik Boland of Newsday). The surgery will sideline him for at least a significant chunk of the 2022 season, although Boone wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Britton making it back at some point next year.

It’s disappointing and somewhat surprising news. Britton was known to be undergoing elbow surgery, but the southpaw downplayed the possibility of there being significant structural damage at the time of that announcement. Instead, the belief had been that doctors only needed to remove bone chips from the joint. Evidently, there was a more significant issue involved than originally expected.

Britton wasn’t going to return this season in either event, but the presence of ligament damage requires a lengthier recovery timeline than loose bone chips alone would have. While the Yankees hadn’t provided a specific timetable on Britton’s return from the bone chip procedure, it seemed from the outside that he stood some chance of being ready for Opening Day next season. That’s obviously no longer the case, and it’s now in question when he’ll make it onto the mound in 2022.

New York hasn’t yet announced a target date in Britton’s recovery, although the procedure he underwent is similar to a full Tommy John surgery. Those typically require twelve to fourteen month rehab periods, which would seemingly threaten his entire 2022 season. At the very least, he’s not expected back until well after next year’s All-Star Break.

The Yankees had been counting on Britton to be a high-leverage relief option. The longtime Orioles closer adapted extremely well to the Bronx after heading over in a 2018 trade, posting a 2.14 ERA over 105 1/3 innings through the end of 2020. That continued elite performance inspired the Yankees to exercise Britton’s $14MM club option covering the 2022 season last winter. (Had they declined the option, Britton would have had the right to elect free agency last offseason).

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem they’ll get much return on that investment because of Britton’s elbow issues. He missed the first couple months of this season after undergoing arthroscopic surgery to correct bone chips. He returned to the diamond in mid-June but was up-and-down over 22 appearances before landing back on the IL with his current injury. He’s now in line to miss at least the majority of next season before reaching free agency at the end of that year.

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New York Yankees Newsstand Zach Britton

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Quick Hits: Pujols, Harvey, Bundy, Anderson

By Mark Polishuk | September 9, 2021 at 10:57pm CDT

The idea of Albert Pujols playing one final season in a Cardinals uniform always seemed a bit fanciful, considering that Paul Goldschmidt now occupies first base in St. Louis, and that Pujols’ dropoff in production created doubt that he would even play beyond the 2021 season.  However, Pujols has had a bit of a revival as a specialist against left-handed pitching, crushing southpaws to the tune of a .302/.336/.635 slash line and 13 home runs over 134 plate appearances this season.

As Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, signing Pujols in 2022 has some baseball value to a Cardinals team that may have a DH spot to work with in next year’s lineup.  That is on top of the natural symbolism of bringing Pujols back for what would be his 22nd — and quite possibly final — MLB season in what Yadier Molina has already announced will be his own final season.  If Adam Wainwright also re-signs with the team and decides to hang it up next winter (which is no sure thing given how well Wainwright continues to pitch), the 2022 season will carry a storybook feel for an entire era of Cardinals baseball, as well as a renewed charge towards another title.

More from around baseball…

  • The Orioles placed Matt Harvey on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his right knee.  O’s manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Rich Dubroff) that Harvey will undergo testing on the knee, and it isn’t yet known if the veteran right-hander will be able to pitch again this season.  After signing a minor league deal with the Orioles in the offseason, Harvey ended up spending the entire year on Baltimore’s big league roster, and the oft-injured righty has tossed 127 2/3 innings over 28 starts.  That is the silver lining amidst an otherwise tough season results-wise, as Harvey has a 6.27 ERA/4.84 SIERA and one of the lower (16.7%) strikeout rates in the league, not to mention some poor hard-hit ball numbers.
  • Dylan Bundy is “very confident” that he’ll be able to return to the Angels before the season is through, the right-hander told The Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher and other reporters.  Wednesday saw Bundy throw his first bullpen session since being placed on the 10-day IL with a shoulder strain back on August 25, and Bundy said the plan is for another bullpen on Saturday.  It remains to be seen if Bundy will be able to build up enough strength to make it back, or if he has already thrown his last pitch as an Angel, considering Bundy is a free agent this winter.  “As far as free agency, the only thing I’m thinking about is not being on the IL at the end of the year,” Bundy said.  Bundy has struggled to a 6.06 ERA/4.55 SIERA over 90 2/3 innings,
  • “I don’t have a lot of conversations with them on that front,” Brian Anderson told MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola and other reporters about extension talks with the Marlins.  General manager Kim Ng said last December, soon after her hiring, that she wanted a season to personally evaluate Anderson before deciding on a potential extension.  By that standard, Anderson hasn’t done much to impress, hitting only .249/.337/.378 and being limited to 264 plate appearances in an injury-riddled year.  Anderson is currently considering multiple options in regards to an ongoing shoulder problem, and surgery is a possibility, with Anderson prioritizing playing as close to a full season as possible in 2022.  The Marlins control Anderson’s rights through the 2023 season, so an extension could still be in the cards if he is able to recover and get back to his old form next year.
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Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins St. Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols Brian Anderson Dylan Bundy Matt Harvey

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AL Central Notes: Perez, Jimenez, Dobnak

By Mark Polishuk | September 9, 2021 at 8:19pm CDT

“Everyone destroyed that deal,” a rival executive tells The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal about the general opinion of the Royals’ four-year, $82MM contract extension with Salvador Perez last March.  Though that extension doesn’t kick in until next season, it is now looking like a shrewd move in the wake of Perez’s huge 2021 numbers.  Perez entered today’s action with 42 homers, a .276/.316/.548 slash line, and a league-best 104 RBIs over 569 plate appearances.  While Perez had shown some big power in the past and delivered a .986 OPS during 156 PA in the abbreviated 2020 season, nobody saw this type of slugging breakout coming in the veteran catcher’s age-31 campaign.

What looked like an overpay in March now looks pretty close to what the market value would’ve been for Perez as a free agent this winter, as 2021 was the final year of Perez’s previous deal (a five-year, $52.5MM pact) with Kansas City.  Given Perez’s importance to the Royals organization, the team might have been willing to engage in some form of a bidding war to retain Perez in free agency, though that is a scenario the Royals are undoubtedly pleased to have avoided.

More from around the division…

  • White Sox slugger Eloy Jimenez has missed his team’s last two games due to a bone bruise on his right knee.  The injury is “significant,” manager Tony La Russa told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters, though there is some hope Jimenez can return to the lineup in relatively short order.  While sitting in the dugout on Tuesday, Jimenez suffered the injury after being hit by a line drive of an Andrew Vaughn foul ball, and eventually had to leave the game.  The increasingly banged-up White Sox are missing a few key players on the injured list already, though Chicago has plenty of cushion atop the all-but-decided AL Central.
  • The Twins placed right-hander Randy Dobnak on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to September 8) due to a strain in his right middle finger.  Left-hander Andrew Albers was called up from Triple-A to take over Dobnak’s scheduled start in today’s game against the Indians.  Dobnak already missed over two months of the season with another strain involving the same finger, and given both the late date on the calendar and the apparent recurring nature of the injury, it is possible that Dobnak might not pitch again in 2021.  It’s been a tough season for the righty, who pitched so well in his 2020 rookie season that Minnesota inked Dobnak to a five-year extension worth at least $9.25MM in guaranteed money.  Working as both a starter and a reliever this year, Dobnak struggled in both roles, en route to a 7.64 ERA over 50 2/3 innings, with 11 home runs allowed.
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Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins Notes Andrew Albers Eloy Jimenez Randy Dobnak Salvador Perez

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Mariners Notes: Kikuchi, Anderson, Gilbert

By Anthony Franco | September 9, 2021 at 6:44pm CDT

The Mariners are poised for one of their most active offseasons in years, with their recent retooling effort having reached its conclusion. Before turning their attention to outside acquisitions, they’ll have to determine whether to retain a few of their own key players. This morning, MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered their looming decision regarding Kyle Seager, and Seattle will also have some notable calls to make on the pitching side.

Yusei Kikuchi, the team’s All-Star representative, could hit the open market. The team has to decide on a four-year, $66MM package deal of conjoined club options this winter. If the club declines to make that long-term commitment, Kikuchi will either exercise his own $13MM option to return in 2022 or choose to test free agency.

Entering the season, the team exercising the options looked like a long shot. Kikuchi then got off to the best start of his three-year MLB career, seemingly making that a tougher call for the front office, as Steve explored here in early July. Over the season’s first half, the 30-year-old worked to a 3.48 ERA across 98 1/3 innings, en route to the aforementioned All-Star selection. He’s struggled mightily over the past couple months, though, with just a 6.04 ERA in 47 2/3 frames. The southpaw’s strikeout rate has dipped a couple percentage points relative to the season’s first few months, while his walk rate has spiked. He’s also been tagged for eleven home runs in his last ten starts as his rate of hard contact allowed has ticked up.

Given those recent struggles, the odds the club picks up Kikuchi’s options look to be dwindling, writes Corey Brock of the Athletic. That’s not particularly surprising, as the southpaw now owns a 4.32 ERA with league average strikeout and walk rates (24.3% and 9.3%, respectively) over the course of the season. Paired with his subpar showings in 2019-20, making that level of long-term commitment to Kikuchi would seem quite risky, even for a club with ample payroll space.

Declining the options would give Kikuchi the chance to become the third Mariners’ starter to hit the open market, joining James Paxton and Tyler Anderson. Seattle could be motivated to bring Anderson back, as he’s fared well since being acquired from the Pirates in a midseason deal. Over eight starts, the southpaw has a 3.83 ERA, offsetting a below-average 18.1% strikeout percentage with a very low 3.7% walk rate. Anderson tells Brock he’d have interest in re-signing with Seattle, and M’s manager Scott Servais said he’s “very intrigued” about the possibility of a reunion, opining that Anderson “would be a good fit going forward.”

Anderson has posted back-to-back reliable seasons. Since the start of 2020, the 31-year-old has a 4.25 ERA in 207 2/3 innings. He hasn’t missed many bats, but he throws plenty of strikes and has done fairly well to avoid damaging contact. It’s possible he and his representatives look for a multi-year deal this offseason, but Anderson was limited to a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee last winter and has split this season between two clubs with pitcher-friendly home ballparks.

In addition to augmenting the group in free agency, the Mariners could look into a long-term deal with one of their pitchers already under team control. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Seattle offered righty Logan Gilbert an extension last September, which the former first-round pick declined. Rosenthal doesn’t suggest there are any plans for a future offer in the near future, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the front office decides to make another effort at some point.

Gilbert had yet to make his big league debut at the time of the M’s offer, but he’s since made his first twenty starts. While the 24-year-old only has a 5.10 ERA, his peripherals have been far more encouraging. Gilbert’s 26% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk percentage are each a few points better than the league average, as is his 12.7% swinging strike rate. The front office is likely as bullish as ever on the young starter’s long-term outlook.

While Gilbert reached the majors this year, his mid-May promotion was late enough in the season that he won’t accrue a full year of service time. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season, although his promotion should enable him to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player over the 2023-24 offseason (assuming the existing service time structure survives this winter’s collective bargaining negotiations). No starting pitcher in the 0-1 year service class has signed an extension since Chris Archer’s April 2014 deal with the Rays. With nothing of recent precedent, it could be difficult for the sides to line up on a mutually agreeable price point.

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Notes Seattle Mariners Logan Gilbert Tyler Anderson Yusei Kikuchi

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Latest On Jacob deGrom

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2021 at 5:40pm CDT

SEPTEMBER 9, 5:40 pm: Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports that there’s only “an outside chance” deGrom will make it back this season.

SEPTEMBER 9, 4:45 pm: deGrom released a statement to reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post) this afternoon addressing his health status. “I know what was said and my ligament is perfectly fine. I have been throwing and I wouldn’t be if I had a compromised ligament. That’s the plan to continue to throw and build up and see where we end up.”

SEPTEMBER 8: Mets ace and two-time NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom hasn’t pitched in a game for two months now. The Mets, in somewhat typical fashion, have provided vague updates on his health throughout the process, repeatedly citing clean MRIs while simultaneously pushing back throwing sessions and shutting him down for additional spells to provide further relief from the inflammation in his elbow.

However, team president Sandy Alderson revealed to reporters last night that there was indeed something more concerning at play, though he insists the issue has now “resolved itself” (link via Newsday’s Tim Healey). DeGrom, according to Alderson, had the “lowest-grade partial tear” possible in his right ulnar collateral ligament.

That’s a much different outlook than was provided by manager Luis Rojas and acting GM Zack Scott, both of whom said at different points in the recovery process that there was no structural damage in deGrom’s elbow. Scott said back on July 30 there was no damage in the ligament, per Healey, and Rojas made the same assertion on Aug. 13. Clearly, surgery was not deemed necessary in the end, and Alderson insists that the ligament is now “perfectly intact” after two months away from game action. Nevertheless, it’s a rather perplexing contradiction from prior messaging on deGrom’s prognosis.

Any mention of even slight UCL damage for a pitcher is concerning — particularly when it’s regarding someone who has already undergone Tommy John surgery once in his career (prior to his MLB debut, in deGrom’s case). Alderson’s insistence that this is essentially a non-issue at this point could be taken as a sigh of relief for Mets fans, but those comments will be ripe for scrutiny if this does ultimately prove to be a more serious situation down the road.

At last check, the Mets had suggested that a best-case scenario for deGrom would be to appear in a few games late in the season — likely only in “abbreviated” fashion. The latest comments from Alderson don’t do anything to change that trajectory, but the transparency into deGrom’s diagnosis lends some critical context and clarity with regard to the team’s cautious approach in handling him.

DeGrom, 33, has pitched 92 innings this season and logged a superhuman 1.08 ERA with similarly absurd strikeout and walk percentages: 45.1 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. He’s still owed $64MM from 2022-23 combined (albeit with $27MM of that sum deferred 15 years), and his five-year, $137.5MM contract also contains a $32.5MM club option for the 2024 season. He can opt out of the remaining guaranteed year following the 2022 season.

The Mets trail the Braves by four games in the National League East and are three and a half games behind the Padres and Reds in the Wild Card standings.

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New York Mets Newsstand Jacob deGrom Sandy Alderson

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Price Of Kyle Seager’s Club Option Has Increased

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2021 at 4:10pm CDT

4:10 pm: Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that the value of Seager’s option has actually escalated all the way to the maximum $20MM figure. According to Divish, Seager needs 37 more plate appearances through the end of the regular season to push the value of the buyout from $1.5MM to $2MM. With 22 games remaining on the schedule, Seattle’s regular third baseman shouldn’t have much difficulty reaching that mark.

9:25 am: Kyle Seager has been a Mariner since the club selected him with the 82nd overall draft pick back in 2009, but the Mariners will soon face a decision on the former All-Star who’s held down the hot corner at T-Mobile Park/Safeco Field for the past decade.

Seager is in the final guaranteed season of a seven-year, $100MM contract extension signed back in December 2014, but that contract holds a club option for the 2022 season. While the option was originally valued at $15MM, Seager’s extension included escalators that could boost the option value up to $20MM and trigger a buyout of as much as $3MM (as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported at the time of the deal). Seager hasn’t reached the full weight of those escalators, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic now reports that he’s boosted that option value up to $19MM and hit enough of the escalators to tack on a buyout in the $1.5MM to $2MM range.

Triggering the buyout means that regardless of the Mariners’ decision, Seager will walk away from the deal with at least $101.5MM to $102MM in guaranteed money. For the Mariners, what was previously a net $15MM decision is now a net decision in the $17MM to $17.5MM range.

Seager, 34 in November, has become an increasingly difficult player to value. His .213 batting average and .290 on-base percentage are both obvious eyesores, but he’s also slugging .455 and has clubbed a career-high 34 home runs in 2021 with a few weeks of games yet to play. His 23.7 percent strikeout rate is a career-high, but the league-average strikeout rate has soared in recent years; he’s only one percent north of the 22.7 average for non-pitchers.

Seager has also had at least some degree of poor fortune on balls in play, although perhaps not as much as his career-low .218 BABIP would suggest upon first glance. Seager’s career .272 average on balls in play is already lower than that of the league average (about .300), so we can’t simply assume there will be positive regression all the way up to the league norm.

This version of Seager is naturally going to be prone to a low BABIP due to his pull-happy (45.5 percent) and thus shift-prone approach, a huge 51.6 percent fly-ball rate (including a 13.6 percent infield-fly rate) and his decreasing speed. Statcast pegs Seager’s “expected” batting average at .225, which would be enough to narrowly push his OBP into the .300s assuming the rest of his profile remained the same. Seager, like so many other players in the league, has taken some steps toward a three-true-outcomes style at plate — albeit not to the same dramatic extent as three-true-outcome kings like Joey Gallo or Miguel Sano.

On the defensive side of things, Seager remains a solid option at third base. Both Ultimate Zone Rating (4.0) and Outs Above Average (5) grade him as an above-average defender. Defensive Runs Saved has him at minus-4 this season, but Seager has a long track record of quality DRS marks. His 13 errors have him on pace to finish right around his full-season totals from 2017-19. He’s not Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado at third base, but most clubs would likely consider him anywhere from serviceable to above-average, which has value in its own right.

The Mariners, at least to some extent, will also have to take into account Seager’s status as a foundational piece for the past decade. Back in February, now-former Mariners president Kevin Mather made a buyout of Seager’s option sound like a fait accompli, indicating that the 2021 campaign would likely be his last as a Mariner. Mather, of course, is no longer with the club and Seager has gone on to belt a career-best 34 dingers — albeit with concerning declines in OBP and average, as previously highlighted. FanGraphs values Seager at 2.6 wins above replacement, putting him on pace to finish as a 2.9-WAR or better player for the ninth time in his past 10 full seasons (i.e., excluding 2020).

The Mariners could simply buy Seager out and slide Abraham Toro (and, on occasion, Ty France) over to third base in 2022. However, both players are capable of playing other positions. Toro has been lined up primarily at second base since being acquired from Houston, and France is capable at both second and first (with more than enough bat to simply DH, as well).

Ultimately, a net price in the $17MM range seems steep for Seager, but the Mariners also only have $19MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season, with a fairly light arbitration class to boot. Combine that with Seager’s career-best power output, solid glovework and legacy status in Seattle — and it’s enough to at least make this a closer decision for the front office than most would expect.

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Seattle Mariners Kyle Seager

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Yankees Place Jameson Taillon On Injured List, Designate Jonathan Davis

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | September 9, 2021 at 2:55pm CDT

The Yankees announced Thursday that they’ve placed right-hander Jameson Taillon on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Tuesday, with a “right ankle tendon injury.” Right-hander Sal Romano was selected from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in his place, and outfielder Jonathan Davis was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Romano.

Taillon suffered a partial tear in the tendon in his ankle, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Erik Boland of Newsday). While that certainly sounds ominous, Boone suggested there’s optimism Taillon could miss at little as one start before returning. It seems rookie Luis Gil could assume Taillon’s rotation spot for the time being, with Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Corey Kluber and Nestor Cortes Jr. rounding out the starting staff.

Acquired from the Pirates over the winter, Taillon got out to a slow start to his Yankees’ tenure. He was tagged for a 5.43 ERA through the end of June, with significant home run troubles offsetting quality strikeout and walk numbers. The 29-year-old was one of the league’s best pitchers in July, though, and has generally been quite productive over the past couple months. Since July 1, Taillon owns a 3.39 ERA as he’s done a better job keeping the ball in the yard. On the season, Taillon has a 4.41 mark across 138 2/3 innings with an average 23.4% strikeout rate and a solid 7.2% walk percentage.

Romano has bounced on and off a few teams’ rosters over the course of the season. He began the year with the Reds, struggling badly in April and finding himself designated for assignment. After clearing waivers, he elected free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. He was selected to the big league roster but quickly DFA’d again, this time landing with the Brewers via waiver claim. Milwaukee became the third team to bump the right-hander from the 40-man roster not long thereafter, and Romano again elected free agency and signed with the Yankees.

Over his prior three big league stints, Romano compiled a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings of relief. His 13.9% strikeout rate is well below-average for a reliever, as is his 5% swinging strike rate. That said, Romano has been far better with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he’s worked to a 3.56 figure over 30 1/3 innings. His 19.1% minor league strikeout rate is still a few points worse than the league average, but it’s quite a bit better than his big league mark. More impressively, Romano has walked a minuscule 3.8% of batters faced with the RailRiders, so Boone should at least be able to count on him throwing strikes consistently in the middle innings.

The Yankees claimed Davis off waivers from the Blue Jays a little more than a month ago. At the time, New York’s roster was reeling from COVID-19 spread. With those players having recovered from the virus, Davis found himself optioned to Triple-A and eventually squeezed off the 40-man entirely. The Yankees will now place Davis on outright or release waivers in the next few days.

Over parts of four seasons with the Jays and Yankees, Davis owns a .171/.272/.248 mark in 259 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has a more productive .250/.355/.421 line in three seasons at Triple-A, though, and is capable of playing all three outfield positions. He is in his final minor league option year, so any team that claims Davis could keep him in the high minors as a depth option for the rest of the regular season. Because he’s being designated for assignment after August 31, Davis wouldn’t be eligible for a new team’s postseason roster if he’s claimed off waivers.

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New York Yankees Transactions Jameson Taillon Jonathan Davis Sal Romano

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