Whenever transactions are again permitted to take place, A’s first baseman Matt Olson is among the most prominent names who’ll be discussed on the trade market. The 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glover has already been linked to the Yankees, Rangers and Braves, among others, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic suggests in his latest mailbag column that the Padres figure to be “in the mix” on Olson as well. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has already at least touched base with the Oakland front office as part of a broader sweep of exploratory trade talks throughout the league, per Lin.
Interest notwithstanding, the Padres seem like a long shot to actually pull off a deal involving Olson for myriad reasons. San Diego already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base and signed for another four seasons at a total of $59MM. The Friars have reportedly pursued various trade scenarios involving Hosmer in an attempt to create payroll flexibility and reduce their luxury-tax ledger, but those efforts have unsurprisingly come up short.
Hosmer’s eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres was widely panned from the start, and the first baseman’s tepid .264/.323/.415 batting line (99 wRC+) since signing hasn’t made the final four years of the contract any more appealing (though it should be noted that the contract is frontloaded, with Hosmer earning $20MM in 2022 and $13MM annually from 2023-25).
The universal designated hitter is viewed as something of a foregone conclusion by now, so one can imagine a scenario where Hosmer spends more time at DH and Olson plays first base. However, that’d still move the Padres’ payroll north by a good margin. Olson is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM in 2022 before commanding one more raise in his final arbitration season in 2023. San Diego already has about $199MM on the books for the 2022 season, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, in addition to about $215MM worth of luxury-tax obligations. The Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax in 2021, but it’s unclear whether they’d be willing to do so again in 2022 — particularly if it’s by a larger margin. Lin notes that owner Peter Seidler has “steadfastly declined” to discuss payroll and luxury tax to this point.
That $215MM figure is a substantial factor in the Padres’ reported efforts to move Hosmer and/or right fielder Wil Myers (who’s owed $21MM in the final season of a six-year, $83MM extension himself). Perhaps if the Padres could find a way to shed one or both salaries, the subsequent luxury breathing room could then be make a potential Olson acquisition more feasible. That, however, would require time to be on the Padres’ side — which is not the case. Post-lockout transactions are expected to be frenetic, and it doesn’t figure to be easy for Preller & Co. to find a trade involving Hosmer or Myers. The San Diego front office has been investigating trades involving the pair for at least the past year, after all — and longer than that with regard to Myers. If an Olson acquisition is predicated on moving Hosmer and/or Myers, it’s hard to imagine there’d be time to complete that deal then circle back to the A’s.
Some might suggest that the Padres simply try to send Hosmer back to Oakland as part of a deal, offering better prospects in return to push a deal across the finish line. That scenario appears decidedly unlikely, though. The cost on Olson figures to be sky-high in the first place, and the driving factor behind Oakland’s ostensibly looming sell-off is a desire to pare payroll. Taking on Hosmer’s deal runs counter to that. Lin speculates that the Padres could try to engineer a three-team swap that places Hosmer with a third team and Olson in San Diego, but that’s obviously an even more ambitious undertaking than simply finding a taker for Olson in a more straightforward two-team deal.
One wild card in all of this is the uncertainty surrounding the status of the luxury tax/competitive balance tax itself. The tax thresholds are a key talking point in collective bargaining talks between the league and the Players Association. The MLBPA is seeking major increases to the tax thresholds, beginning with a jump all the way to $245MM this coming season and cresting with a $273MM threshold in 2026. The league, meanwhile, has only been willing to offer far more marginal increases: $214MM in 2022-23 and incremental increases up to $222MM in 2026. MLB is also seeking to greatly increase the penalties for crossing the threshold, which the MLBPA considers a nonstarter.
[Related: Latest Collective Bargaining Positions For MLB, MLBPA]
It’s possible that whatever middle ground is reached will come with enough of an uptick in the first threshold that the Padres could technically squeeze Olson into the fray without needing to pay the tax. However, the Padres are also facing needs elsewhere on the roster — namely in one corner outfield spot. If the hope is to add an outfielder and/or deepen the pitching staff or bench at all, then San Diego would be looking at shoehorning more than just Olson’s salary into the puzzle.
All of that is based on a theoretical stance that Padres ownership is deterred by the luxury tax alone, but we can’t know that for certain. Last year’s bottom-line payroll of nearly $174MM shattered the former franchise-record payroll by more than $60MM. The current $199MM projection further trounces that number, and adding Olson and any others to the mix would bring the Padres well north of $200MM in actual 2022 salaries (and quite a bit higher in terms of AAV-based luxury calculations). It would require an unprecedented level of spending for the Padres, and we can’t know at what point ownership will simply be uncomfortable with further expenditures. It’s possible they’ve already reached that juncture.
To sum up a bit, there’s good reason to expect the Padres will indeed try to make something happen on the Olson front. Preller has shown time and again that he’ll always explore creative options when marquee talents are available. San Diego hired manager Bob Melvin away from the A’s earlier this offseason, and Melvin would surely love to have his former franchise first baseman follow him down I-5. If the Padres were to somehow move Hosmer, they’d have an opening at first base. It all makes sense on paper, and various permutations of Olson-to-San Diego deals or three-team blockbusters involving Olson, Hosmer, Myers and top prospects make for fun hypotheticals with Major League transactions approaching a three-month standstill.
At the end of the day, however, there are so many moving parts involved even in these theoretical exercises that it’s hard to see the Padres finding a way to make the pieces work. Still, even a tangential Padres involvement in the Olson market is of some note. Their lurking presence could carry implications on the asking price Oakland can put forth to other clubs, and if trade talks with other suitors drag on long enough post-lockout, it’d only give the Padres more time to pull off their latest trade-market stunner.
They’re not upgrading from Hosmer to Olson unless they are willing to part with Abrams++
With that in mind… if I’m Preller I’m simply keeping Hosmer and letting someone else overpay in prospects for Olson.
And no, I’m not interested in listening to people prognosticate about how the Padres would be doing the A’s some kind of favor by taking Olson just because he’s only got 2 years left and is starting to make some actual $ now.
Once the lockout is over, they should just do a Zoom call with everybody interested in Olson and make it like an auction. Broadcast it live for the fans to see… Might brush away some of the bitter feelings the fans feel from the lockout.
never happen but I think it would make for great viewing.
It would be fun but it would upset the players on 25 teams who lose the auction to find out they were offered.
They don’t care about me, I don’t care about them…
Isn’t Hosmer’s contract considered to be “front loaded” (more money earlier) rather than “back loaded” (more money in later years?
Yes, after this year his contract drops down.
Blah, yes it is. Myers is on the heavily backloaded deal, though I cannot say with any certainty that’s what was going through my head when I mistakenly typed “backloaded.”
Anyhow, thanks for pointing that out. It’s been fixed.
You also assume Olson would take I-5 to San Diego when he very well might prefer 101.
Inexcusable.
Or maybe he’d take 80 to Sacramento so he could drive the “scenic” 99
OMG, the 101 takes forever.
Was about to ask if it was open through Big Sur then remembered that was 1, not 101.
let’s move Hosmer’s contract first….. He gets 5/10 rights after this season… If you’re going to move him… 2022 is the year to do so….
Year Age Payroll Salary
2022 32 $21,000,000
2023 33 $13,000,000
2024 34 $13,000,000
2025 35 $13,000,000
Three Years and $39MM after this season seems like not such a hard sell to a team after this year…. But the 5/10 rights complicate that… if Preller can get permission to pay all of next years salary to a willing taker…. He might not need to add a prospect to shed the team of Hosmer…. The new team would get Hosmer at 4 years and $39 left to pay….(Less than 10MM per season)… SD absorbs $5.5MM over 4 years to make Hosmer disappear…
I think he’d still have to add someone. A near replacement level player for even 10 million a year isn’t a great year. Not likely he’s going to get better as he ages.
Padres have plenty of prospects that can be used for this and likely not really missed
Hosmer getting 10-and-5 rights doesn’t matter. Nor does his salary dropping to $13m.
But Hosmers CBT hit will be substantially higher due to the front loaded contract. While that will only effect the large market teams, who are unlikely to be interested in him, the small market teams won’t be interested in him either.
@stymeedone CBT hit is determined by AAV, not what he’s making that year. Hosmer’s CBT hit is $18m/yr no matter what happens.
Olson at 1B, Hosmer at DH. A payroll around $210 million.
As long as the Padres are not moving Abrams or Campusano to get him I am ok with that.
If the Padres are going to move Hosmer, they are going to have to eat a large portion of his deal and send someone of value along with him and even then are not going to get much back of value.
Sending $30 million means the receiving team is on the hook for an average of $7.5 million per season. Adding a major league player with value but a low salary like Nola could entice some team to take Hosmer off the Padres hands. The Padres shave $10.5 million per season off their CBT payroll figures.
So what team needs a 1B and a catcher?
The Yankees need a 1B and desperately need a real catcher. I think they line up nicely for a trade. Obviously I think the sticking point would be Campusano, particularly since he was offered to the Cubbies from what I read. I think he would be enticing for the Yankees because they have no catcher in their system that is slated to be a FT catcher in the Bigs – they’ve simply….failed in that endeavor.
Oops. Got the numbers wrong on reduction in CBT numbers for Padres if they eat half of Hosmer’s deal in a trade. They would retain $10.5 million per season and cut it by the same $7.5 million the receiving team would take on in AAV.
It was reported by a Cubbies blogger that he was offered. The Padres never confirmed that and it was not reported by Acee, Lin, Rosenthal, Heyman, or any of the major sources of trade rumors.
The Padres have no reason to trade a 22 year old catcher that tore up AAA with the bat and made huge strides both on defense and calling games in 2021.
Ah, interesting. Okay, I read it as a historical story on some of the Yankees blogs (maybe…PSA?) addressing offseason needs wherein they referenced the offer, not any source. I appreciate that information Pads and that answers my post above where I questioned why the Cubs wouldn’t take it.
Yeah, he looks like he’s coming into his own. What a great get by the Padres.
Back loaded versus front loaded just depends on if you think it from the player or teams perspective. I think of a deal as front loaded when the player makes more at the front. You say potato, I say tater tot.
Manny, let’s get one thing clear, sir: Potatoes are not tater tots!!!
Doesn’t that mean Hosmer’s contract is *front*loaded if the last years are less?
no….,AAV is the only number that matters (18 million)
opt outs are completely in favor of players and enormously stupid when given by the team.
While this is true the player always has to take a hit from a years/AAV standpoint to get the opt-out. Like, you will never see a situation where the two sides have agreed to terms on a contract with no opt-out and then the front office says “Oh! But you also have to have a player opt-out halfway through or no deal!” No. The team is going to want something in exchange for giving the player the opt-out. In the case of Eric Hosmer, it actually ended up benefiting the Padres as it is assumed that signing him would have cost them more money without the opt-out. Since we already know he’s not opting out and the opt-out only matters if the player actually uses it, that means the Padres just saved some money without giving up anything in return.
This. People always forget this when discussing opt-outs. They are part of the negotiation and cause the team to “win” a little more elsewhere, like annual salary. They are a way for a team to overreach a bit and get a player they couldn’t otherwise afford.
@seamaholic 2 People don’t forget it, it just isn’t what people who claim that opt-out clauses benefit teams are usually referring to. The opt-out clause on its own IS pure downside for the team so you will never see a team give a player one without getting SOME kind of financial offset in return.
If the choice is $30 million per year and no opt outs or $25 million per year with opt outs, then it is a calculated concession by the team. Just like a guaranteed option held by the team with a cheap buyout if something a player calculates.
The owners should demand that if the player gets an opt out, the team gets one, too. If Correa signs but gets an opt out after year 2, the team should get an opt out after year 4. This would guarantee that a player who opts in because he’s not worth his contract, still gets paid for two more years of the deal, but the team isn’t stuck forever. Should be automatic for contracts longer than 6 years.
@stymeedone Team opt-outs in the middle of large, long term contracts will never happen. Never. Ever. Ever.
You mean like the team option years. Plenty of contracts have at least one or even two years like that.
Doubt that the union or player would sign any long term deal that would allow a team to opt out of paying any of the likely down years on the back end.
I am aware, but think they should.
You thinking they should plus a quarter is worth 25 cents, if that.
I’d love Olson but is it worth losing Abrams or Hassel? No. The DH could allow for Abrams to slot in at second and Cronenworth to first and Hosmer and Kim DH/utility. Bolster the rotation with mid-level innings eaters. As it stands, this is a .500 club mostly due to the questionable health of the rotation. The offense could surprise people but can the rotation stay healthy?
Yeah it is, easily. Not Abrams, but Hassell for sure. Think of it as trading Hosmer and Hassell for Matt Olson. You do that every day and twice on Sundays.
1. That wouldn’t get it done.
2. I’d rather take my chances on the Padres’ homegrown players than other teams’ thank you very much.
You are correct it wouldn’t be enough to get Olson. He’s worth much, much more than just Hassell.
I can’t understand why people assume that Hosmer has to be traded for the big name. Its much more likely that he is traded along with a lot of $$$ for a couple of middle relief prospects that are in A ball right now in a move that is unrelated to the trade for a player to fill the Padres needs at 1B or LF. .
The question on the Padres rotation to me is do you believe the SP’s who were injured last yr to be injury prone athletes? There certainly is a case for Clevinger- as for the rest?
And….another question is do you believe that the same rotation can have the same bad luck with injuries this season!?
Dinelson Lamet and Yu Darvish have certainly had their own injury issues, Blake Snell too. In fact now that I think of it, Musgrove has the shortest ‘list of injuries!’
I’d throw as many arms out there as possible. Last year they mistakenly thought they were good to go on arms and early on and Morejons injury started a domino effect. Sign a Davies, see if Cueto is a possibility and create an overabundance from which to draw from
Ask the Angels!
Yes. Snell and Darvish both have a history of injuries. Clevinger and Lamet obviously. Only in 2019 and 2021 has Musgrove surpassed 20 starts. Paddack is a new injury, but anything having to do with the elbow is scary. Doesn’t seem like bad luck to me. Seems like this was easily foreseeable.
Martinez is a huge question mark since he was bad in his 4 seasons in the majors and is now 35 years old. Hardly someone the Padres can count on for a large number of innings or a low ERA.
You got it right.
Who does Preller have left to trade at this point? I don’t see the Padres as a fit. They have reportedly been trying to trade Wil Myers and Hosmer the last year or 2 already with no takers. Preller should probably go after some relief pitching if anything.
They probably have to include Hassell or Campusano to trade one of those guys, especially the Hosmer contract.
No way the Athletics are taking back the Hosmer contract. Besides, Luke Voit would be a lot cheaper for the Padres than Matt Olson.
Yeah, i only see the Mets as crazy enough to take the Hosmer contract. Suppose the Padres offered Campusano, Gore, Lange, Gasser and Medina? The latter three are Padres top dozen prospects, all pitchers who are 3-4 years out.
So Hosmer should stay on the Padres.
Campusano usually the name tied (by fans) to any Hosmer deal. Problem is the A’s have a 26-year old Gold Glove winner behind the plate right now in Sean Murphy. I guess you have to ask if they think he’s reached his ceiling yet offensively, and whether Soderstrom sticks at C (my guess is probably not). Muphy’s “down” year at the plate was still good for an OPS+ of 98, which is still a clip better than the average catcher. I don’t think most teams would turn down the chance at Campusano, but I’d imagine there are bigger holes to fill for Oakland.
Bigger problem is the Padres have a 32 year old Nola and a bunch of schlubs above Campusano on the depth chart and no one else that will be MLB ready for a couple years at the earliest.
Campusano tore up AAA with the bat at age 22 and made huge strides on defense and game calling. It makes no sense to trade him at all.
Why does it have to be a prospect? Is there some reason it can’t be lots of $$$ and a major league player?
How about $30 million and Weathers? That would be plenty. Or how about Nola? That would be enough too.
I highly doubt Preller is willing to move any of his top 4 prospects just to dump Hosmer.
I think hosmer to the nats. And add Mac gore for the trouble makes sense.
Then make a package for Olson centered around hassell along w 2 other prospects. 1 in the top 8. And the other in top 15. Maybe the A’s bite
If they attach prospects to dump Hosmer that needs to be the end of it. Don’t then overpay in prospects for Olson or cash for Freeman. If they aren’t happy with their internal first base options sans Hosmer then they’re probably better off just keeping Hosmer than trading what’s left of their farm system.
This is what I’d do. Give up a prospect to get Hos off the payroll, then use the savings on one of the free agent outfielders and find a cheap 1B or just play Cronenworth there every day.
Exactly
In favor of these ideas. The team doesn’t have the rotation strength to justify pushing all the chips in AGAIN. If the SP bounce back, great, you can live with Hosmer on the team by mitigating his weakness. However, Preller has the impulse control of a toddler. Not sure he’s congenitally able to throttle back.
As you point out, moving him will already cost prospects from a depleted farm. In a bidding war for Olson, not sure anybody BUT Abrams gets it done.
Keeping Hosmer may be the least-bad decision. Make him the grumpiest, ground-ballingest pinch hitter in MLB. There’s always the chance, slim as it may be, that he hits like 2020 / 2017 again.
The Nationals just traded for Ruiz in 2020 and their backup catcher is Adams, so they are probably not looking for a catching prospect. They would be looking for a veteran that is still inexpensive to backup Ruiz.
The Padres have not indicated they are willing to part with Campusano in any deal. He just crushed the ball in AAA at age 22 and got much better on defense and at game calling last season. It doesn’t make sense to trade him.
For the Padres it would be better to give up boatloads of money, say half of the remaining $60 million on Hosmer’s deal, and a major league player.
You seem to be a Nationals fan. What do they need?
Or here is a better idea, the Nationals send Corbin along with his 5.50 ERA the past two seasons and $24 million to the Padres for Hosmer in a swap of bad contracts and call it a day.
Be better off finding a platoon bat for Hosmer
He hit .272/.354/.400 against righties. The OBP is there youd like a little more slugging. But its passable.
Definitely could use a RH bat against lefties.
Maybe you move Tatis Jr to 1st and Kim to SS against lefties.
Maybe you bring in someone like Josh Harrison who can play multiple positions and hit .295/.360/.411 against lefties.
I get wanting to make a big splash but the smart play would be platoon using the pieces available or signing a cheap platoon.
My hope is that a veteran skipper can convince Hosmer to pay more attention to the analytics and rework his swing to incorporate a higher launch angle.
Hosmer makes good contact as evidenced by his 47.3% hard hit rate and he is very good with runners in scoring position. As a Padre he has a slash line of 302/352/.454/.804 with RISP and has driven in runners at 4.3% higher than league average. If he hit home runs even 5% more often those numbers would go way up. The question is can anyone get him to change?
Going to be expensive to get him, considering they also need to move Hosmer. Primarily for that reason, I see someone else coming away with Olson.
The price it would take upgrade from Hosmer to Olson is staggering. You’re talking a $96m surplus value difference according to BTV.
Exactly. They’d have to dump Hosmer, attach a solid prospect to get rid of him, then meet the A’s asking price. Other option is to dump him for a similarly bad contract at a different position, but how many mutually beneficial options are there?
Aaron Hicks – 4 years 40 mill. If they wait till 2023 off season Hicks is owed roughly 3 years 30 mill while Hosmer is owed 3 years 39 mill.
Patrick Corbin is owed 3 years 80ish mill
Madison Bumgarner has 3 years 60ish mill left
If the Padres send Hosmer plus cash and sweeten the deal of prospects for taking Hosmer, I would have a hard time saying no if I’m the As but knowing them there’s no way they take on more money.
Their owner is more interested in his art collection, donating to Stanford university and the Republican Party
I think the A’s will find a much better deal than Hosmer + more for Olson.
I would think it will be difficult for SD to compete with any team who feels like they have to ‘overpay’ in prospect capital in order to pry Olson away.
There are quite a few Org’s who are top heavy in Top100 prospects AND have depth. Seattle, AZ, PIT to name a few. Its hard to say the same about SD’s farm system right now.
Of course they will. They can get comparable prospects to what Padres fans on here are offering without taking back Hosmer or someone comparable.
A good number of NL teams will be hot and heavy for Olson I’d imagine. A’s will get a haul for him, even more if they include a starting pitcher.
Not too many teams likely to spend very big on a first baseman, even a really good one. Even the Braves are hesitant about spending big on the face of their freakin’ franchise. I think the A’s end up keeping him, trading only their pitchers and maybe Chapman, because the 3B market is a bit more robust.
I Still think Olson ends up a Cub.
Based on what? There have been zero rumors regarding the Cubs. And they don’t have the farm to get a guy like Olson.
How many rumors were there linking them to Stroman? And speaking of Stroman, they didn’t just sign him for fun.
If not for teams like Baltimore, KC, the Tigers etc, their farm is easily a top 10.
Once Olson is brought on, they turn their attention to Correa and they become instant contenders..
So if not for other good farm systems, they’d have a better farm system? That’s a weak argument. They also wouldn’t be instant contenders. Hendricks, Stroman & Miley if you trust him then…..? Not a whole lot of legitimate contenders with 2 and a half starting pitchers.
They got Stroman to sell tickets and did so on a contract where it’s still possible to trade him pretty easily, should you need to.
Regardless of Hosmer’s contract structure, he still counts as $18M against the luxury tax. No team wants to deal with that especially with talks of stricter tax penalties. Dumping Hosmer and getting Olson to replace him would probably cost the Padres both Hassell and Abrams. Further gutting their farm to improve at 1B would be foolish so the Padres are better off praying Hosmer can have a good season then get dealt next year
Only a few teams are anywhere near the lux tax.
Hosmer has 4 years left on his deal so it’s not just about this year. The Padres weren’t up against the tax when they signed him but they are now. There are also very few contenders who need a 1B. Nobody wants $18M of their luxury tax allotment tied up to a bum like Hosmer for the next 4 years
If he completes this year with the Padres Hosmer then has 10/5 rights and can’t be traded anywhere without his consent.
@CCTL The money in the contract is a much greater hindrance to a Hosmer trade than 10-and-5 rights could ever hope to be.
Pretty sure Hosmer wants out as much as the Padres want him out.
@stymeedone If that is the case he can always opt out…
Depends on how much of his contract the Padres eat. If they eat half, for the receiving team he is a $7.5 million hit in the CBT payroll calculations.
Given that the idea of Hosmer for Olson is absurd for many reasons, it’s hard to understand why Hosmer plus a prospect would be enough, as some commenters seem to be suggesting. If you want Olson, you have to expect to pay up–and not with an albatross contract you want to be rid of.
Plus, no way the A’s are taking on more money for worse players if the reason they’re trading these guys is to shed salary. I think it’d take two different trades: a salary dump of Hosmer (or trade for another bad contract at a different position), then the trade for Olson.
Hosmer isn’t the first player with an albatross contract that people on here have tried to push trades of that involved one of the other teams’ best trade chips coming back and he won’t be the last. Heck, sometimes it actually works (Kemp, Cano).
Yea but in this case it makes no sense at all seeing as the entire reason the A’s would be trading Olsen in the first place is to save money.
The Kemp and Cano trades made no sense either.
It is fun to throw around trade proposals on these boards. I would love to hear the genuine reaction from actual current GMs to trade scenarios that are brought forth by fans on sites like this one. It would be great to hear all of them laughing out loud to the proposals.
They’re like the Mets except that the Mets at least have a couple ancient trophies. Both teams are a joke right now. I’m for anyone but the Dodgers in that division but SD has proven absolutely nothing to this point.
The As have a lot players available to trade we get it. Wow I can’t wait for the stove to get turned back on
The Padres already traded Trea Turner for Wil Myers. I’m sure everyone remembers that it didn’t work out well for the Padres. Now the Padres have basically that exact same prospect, except a LHH, in Abrams.
Now, who here would be willing to trade 6 years of a LHH Trea Turner ++ for 2 years of Olson? I didn’t think so. Besides that these trades take place during the off-season and that isn’t happening this year.
I doubt it would ever happen, but I’d consider becoming an Angels fan if AJ traded Abrams for Olson lol. Been a Padres fan for a few decades.
If abrams is half the player turner is they’ll be happy
I get the point you’re trying to make and I wouldn’t trade him with the ? around SD’s rotation (my opinion might change if this did seem like a good push the chips in moment for SD), but calling him Trea Turner seems pretty disingenuous.
Trea Turner has been a good player (~4.75 fWAR/600 pas) and last year was a phenomenal player…that kind of outcome is uncommon, even for highly rated prospects. So yeah, you wouldn’t trade 6 years of LHH Trea Turner, but you don’t know Abrams will be that, or anywhere close to that (or if he could end up better), so it’s really not a fair question to pose.
You are correct. Nobody knows how good CJ Abrams will be. Nobody knew how good Trea Turner was going to be before the Padres traded him either. That doesn’t keep every Padre hater on this forum from acting like Preller should have known better. If they can Monday Morning Quarterback these trades, then I can make predictions about the future.
Do you think if Preller does trade CJ Abrams and he turns into Trea Turner that nobody will come here and say that PRELLER SHOULD HAVE KNOWN? Of course they will. So I am going to be the one who says they should not trade him now because of what he COULD be.
@Javia135 You are paid to get it right more often than not. Preller has not done that.
How do averages work Harambe? How do 30-GMs all get trades right more often than not? That does not seem to be mathematically possible, does it?
I also see that you have ignored the basic question: should the Padres trade Abrams or not? I know that you, yourself have castigated Preller repeatedly for the Turner trade. So I would assume you are against trading Abrams? Or are you only willing to knock others for their decisions while not making any of your own?
No. Preller should not trade Abrams. And no. Trea Turner is not just one guy but symbolic of a bigger problem.
Javia135
So I would assume you are against trading Abrams?
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The only correct answer is ‘It depends on what the return is”.
I get that you can’t look back in hindsight to judge a deal. I just don’t know that Myers showed all that much after his two years with TB. He had a 105 OPS+, which for a weak fielder, is pretty mediocre. A 1.2 bWAR/650 PAs, which is weak.
That said, it was also part of a series of mistakes by Preller, particularly not trading Cashner and Tyson Ross. He treated the Padres as contenders, and they just weren’t.
@JoeBrady He actually did pretty well in the Cashner trade tbh.
Getting rid of Hoz for Olson won’t get the Padres far in the playoffs if they make them. Keep Hoz and work on pitching upgrades.
“Hosmer’s eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres was widely panned from the start…”
Oh, really?
mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/padres-to-sign-eric-hos…
Lots of awful takes, struggling to rationalize the contract in that comment section. Not surprising though, you see very similar ones on basically every questionable signing.
At what point do the Padres go bankrupt?
You don’t buy a baseball team to make money. It’s a hobby for billionaires.
Padres go what 5-7 games under again?
Question. Even though Hosmer has a front loaded deal from SD, wouldn’t any team that acquires him via trade have the AAV of the contract apply to their tax threshold? His remaining salary per year is lower but if the AAV affects the new team it would be one more reason to stay away. Please, educate me.
Hosmer’s total contract was $144 million for 8 years. 144/8=$18 million per year. That is what Hosmer counts against the cap.
Hosmer only accounts for that full boat of $18MM on the books of the buyer(SD)…. If he is traded… his AAV is based on how much of the contract is absorbed by the new team…. plenty of example to see on how this has worked in the past…. Stanton’s AAV is $22MM as a Yank based on the average of $3MM per year the Marlins kicked in … thus reducing his AAV from 25 to 22… Same with Arenado… where Colorado paid his entire 2021 salary lowering his AAV over the life of the contract… for Hosmer…. Let’s say the scenario I spoke of above happens and he becomes a Cub…. SD covers his entire 2022 salary and he is a member of the Cubs at 4 years and $39MM…. his cap hit/AAV will be $9.75MM as long as he is a member of the Cubs….
Thanks
Rather the Padres hold on to Hosmer for one more year; than give away multiple top prospects. Preller should focus on getting rid of Myers, Profar, and Pomeranz; in order to create financial breathing room.
Hosmer gets 10/5 rights at the end of the 2022 season which would make him harder to trade even though his salary is going down substantially in 2023.
No one to replace Myers in the OF right now and he was marginally above average in 2021. Pomeranz is injured so moving him is probably not possible. I agree whole heartedly about Profar, but like Hosmer his contract makes that near impossible to move him without SD eating a large portion of his deal.
wonder if the padres are willing to put weathers, campusano, and Hassell out to land him. this is one of our missing pieces – moving Hosmer to DH platoon. we still need an OF – wonder if they will give Abrams a shot with potential draft picks tied to him having a good year.
we do need the cap to go up by $10M or so – seems completely possible with the current negotiations possibly coming together.
I think Olsen goes to the Braves.
Correction: Olson not Olsen
AJ has said before , you have to trade prospects when they have the most value or risk not getting the most you can for them ( look at all the Braves worth nothing compared to 2 yrs ago) there are only two teams that might trade for Hosmer,Cubs& Rangers ,either way you will have to trade top prospects. Pads want to win now even if it cost Abrams ,Hassel, Campusano,Gore and who ever else. There are more right behind them.
Why only those two teams and why would the Padres be forced to trade prospects at all?
Padres eat $30 million of the $60 million left on Hosmer’s deal and add a major league player with team control like Nola for two mid level prospects in return.
The whole purpose of moving Hosmer, Myers ,Kim or Profar is to get rid of salaries from bad contracts and to add new free agents this yr
Again, why only those two teams? And why would the Padres be forced to trade prospects?
Why can’t they attach money and another MLB player to a trade involving Hosmer?
Dennis Lin quoted Preller as saying that none of the top 3 prospects were available in trade, so I guess he doesn’t agree with your assessment.
Padres are not moving Kim at all this offseason. He was a plus defender at 2 infield positions. His bat was not good, but it was his first year in the majors and he still put up a league average WAR.
If they want to dump Hosmer without eating most of the contract attaching one of their top 3 prospects is what it will take Koamalu.
I just cant see the Braves using prospect capitol to get Olson, I see them buying Rizzo or Schwarber. Or a 3rd baseman like Bryant and moving Riley to 1st. I think the Braves would rather pay Freeman Than give up all the prospects for 2 years of Olson.
Didn’t Riley have an excellent defensive year at 3B though? If so, why would they move him over and who would they push to the hot corner that would do as well?
Bryant has had ample injury problems and should be getting $100M easy. Schwarber most likely will get an Ozuna-like contract. Rizzo seems the more affable contract, but that should be viewed as a last resort. Everyone talks about “only 2 years” of Olson, but he was ALREADY more productive at half the cost of Freeman in 2021, and he’s in his prime. And FWIW, if there’s going to be anyone that can ease the pain of Braves Nation watching Freeman get his World Series ring NOT in a Braves uni — it’ll be a big GA boy that hits bombs (Olson). AA has enough prospects to make it happen, while having enough left over for depth as he can now fully explore international free agency without sanctions.
Paying a ton in prospect capital or money for a first baseman would be stupid for the Padres but Preller did it once so i guess is not out of the question. Get an outfielder and hold off until the all star break to re-evaluate 1st base. If Abrams is ready he could go to second and I think Chronenworth could probably handle 1st. Heck, maybe even slide Tatis over if he dislocates his shoulder again. Despite how good of an athlete he is i would be okay not seeing him in the outfield again.
Tatis’ erratic arm will make him the next Padre 1B after Hosmer.
I predict Matt Olson eventually ends up in SEA, CHW or MIL by end of the 2022 season. The Padres front office seems media influenced, therefore… Fill it in.
Seattle needs to make Olson happen. Perfect for their lineup. France can DH, and be a super IF utility. Make this happen
Would I love to have Olson? Hell yes. Do I think its an option? Hell no. First, the prospect capital to get him and move Hosmer would be way too much. I’m not keen on giving up someone like Hassell or Abrams to make this move…even Campusano. Gore? Maaaaybe.. Hosmer will be a Padre next season. Our only hope is that he has a great year.and he opts out of the remainder of his contract, thinking he can make more than $13 mil a year. This likely won’t happen either. So, I think we need to come to terms that we are going to have Hosmer for at least a couple more years.
This article should read: “MLBTRADE Rumors needs clicks!”
Considering the number of comments on this article, including yours and mine, I would say they are doing just fine.
I’m sure most teams are interested to some degree.
Swap hin with the A’s and send some prospects and some cash and done. Hosmer still has 4 yrs so, it could be a cheaper replacement if the Padres pay some of it. The other option is to keep them both. They could DH Hosmer and use Olson at 1B. I would send them a package center by Gore P, Abrams SS and Campusano C.
1.Grisham CF
2.Tatis Jr. SS
3.Croneworth 2B
4.Machado 3B
5.Olson 1B
6.Myers RF
7.Hosmer DH
8.Nola C
9.Profar LF
Hosmer to Olson is a $96m difference in surplus value. That package gets you close but you likely still have to pay some of Hosmer’s contract.
It would also mean the Padres’ window closes after 2023.
I’m not sure why all these articles mention moving Myers. At last look, the Padres have only two regular outfielders for 2022. I can see Preller trading Myers, only to sign a worse contract, but at this point, I see no reason to trade Myers and take a loss. Sometimes you just need to let the player play thru his contract.
Yeah unless someone is willing to take him without the Padres throwing in any $/prospects they’re probably better off just rolling with Myers.
Pads want to win WS this yr not in 1,2 or 3 yrs. but NOW . They would like to sign 2 of either Castellanos, Conforto, Schwarber, Bryant, Rodin, and Cruz . Also would like to trade for Olsen maybe Bassett ,Manaea and Contreras
The Padres need to focus on getting the most out of the players they already have and actually developing the “hot talent lava”
You’re up against the tax and missing the playoffs.
You’ve made 6,000 trades and spent 11ty billion dollars in the last 4 years.
You’re doing it wrong.