The Giants won 107 games last season, earning the NL West crown and ending an eight-year streak of division titles for the Dodgers. Expectations were high for another strong season here in 2022, though the club has fallen short. They are currently 68-74, placing them 30 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the division and 10 games out of a Wild Card spot. Although some changes will surely be coming to the roster, it seems like there will be continuity elsewhere.
“We are fully behind Farhan and (manager) Gabe (Kapler) and the coaching staff,” chairman Greg Johnson said, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. “We recognize that you have a team that did get older and that presents some challenges, and a farm system that I would say hasn’t progressed as quickly as we’d like to see. There’s been some injuries to key people and COVID has set back the timeline on development in some cases. But the general direction, the tone, the work ethic, the dedication that these guys put in every day, and the morale we see even in a tough year, we’re very much committed to Farhan and his team.” When Johnson was asked if he could see Zaidi sticking around beyond the end of his contract, which runs through 2023, he said that he could.
It would appear that Zaidi and his team will get at least 2023, but likely longer, to try and find better results. That will likely lead to an aggressive offseason, with Zaidi already expressing that “everything is on the table,” in comments earlier this month, “including going out and being aggressive at the top end of the free agent market.” Talking about it and doing it are different things, of course, though the club is reportedly considering Aaron Judge and some marquee shortstops this winter.
Those kinds of moves won’t come cheap, but the conditions are there for the Giants to pull the trigger. The club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $155MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though was in the $200MM range before Zaidi came aboard. When asked about whether the club would consider that of spending again, Johnson said, “If it was $175 (million) or $180 (million) or higher than that, we’re willing to do that. There’s going to be years when you have three or four (prospects) coming up ready to roll, and that may put some relief on payroll. Or you have years when you’ll have to fill some spots and pay extra. That’s the flexible approach that we’re taking. There’s no fixed line.”
The club currently has about $96MM committed to 2023, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players like Mike Yastrzemski and Logan Webb, but it does include the $22.5MM salary that Carlos Rodón is set to earn next year. However, he is almost certainly going to exercise the opt-out in his deal and return to free agency based on his excellent season. Through 162 2/3 innings, he has a 2.93 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 35.1% ground ball rate (stats coming into today). Though there have been durability concerns around the southpaw, he’s stayed healthy this year and gone 30 innings longer than last year, when he seemingly ran out of gas.
With Rodón off the books, the Giants will have tremendous amounts of payroll space, though that will obviously make the team worse. It’s possible the club could look to bring him back with another contract, which is something that seems to be on the table. “I know he’s mentioned he’s been happy here and would have interest in coming back. That’s always a big part of the equation, whether players have an interest in coming back, and he does,” Zaidi told Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “He’s certainly a guy that we’d love to see back. He’s done a great job for us.”
A pitcher of Rodón’s caliber will likely require a nine-figure deal of some kind, just like signing Judge or one of the top available shortstops. While fans of the club are surely excited about the possibility of those bold strikes, the team will also have to consider other moves, such as retaining Joc Pederson. The club signed him to a one-year, $6MM deal that has turned into one of the bright spots this year in San Fran. Pederson has hit 22 home runs so far this year and slashed .268/.349/.521, leading to a career-high wRC+ of 141. Zaidi tells Pavlovic that it’s possible they will work out an extension in the next few weeks, before Pederson returns to free agency. “We’ve expressed interest and there’s still some time until the end of the season and free agency hits, so we’ll just continue to see if there’s a match out there,” Zaidi says.
One Giant who will be back next year is lefty Alex Wood, as he still has one year left on the two-year deal signed just under a year ago. That came on the heels of a one-year deal for 2021 that saw Wood throw 138 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.83. He hasn’t been able to replicate that here in 2022, however, registering a 5.10 ERA through 130 2/3 innings. Wood could theoretically finish strong over the season’s final weeks and improve the final tally, though it’s possible he may not get the chance. He’s been on the IL since early September due to a left shoulder impingement and will decide this weekend whether he can return, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. A return to form for Wood would be huge for the 2023 Giants, especially if they can’t convince Rodón to return.
As a fan that loves good baseball and roots for the NLW teams after my Pads are eliminated “every” year, I’m excited to see how SF retools for ’23. As a true Pad fan though, I’m afraid they might get Judge and Trea, but I do think Rodon walks. Nevertheless, go Pads (until they’re out!)
Nice. I’m also excited.
And I think Rodon walks. Too many years required.
they’re not getting Turner unless he gets completely blown away with an offer. he likes the east coast and of course, I’m sure LA will throw a lot of money at him. this is Turner’s last chance at a big contract so he’s probably going to sign with a team he really believes will be a winner.
It has now been refuted several times by Trea himself that he suggested he wanted to go to the East Coast. That isn’t to say he wouldn’t end up in Philly or elsewhere, but I wouldn’t rule out any city, except perhaps Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, KC or Miami.
The article in The Athletic had Greg Johnson mentioning the bullpen. It needs a complete overhaul with Doval and maybe Brebbia returning. Got to get some swing and miss guys. Once that’s done, got to focus on defense up the middle.
Judge is as good as orange. It would be an upset if he didnt sign there.
That would make me blue and others green with envy if Cashman is too yellow to sign Judge.
Judge won’t go to San Fransico too large a park. go look at how many homers run he hit that won’t be out in Giants park.
Maybe you should look. Oracle plays differently since the changes made prior to 2020. According to Statcast, when he was at 55 HRs, 53 of those would have been HRs at Oracle.
Judge is going to where he gets the most money. Simple as that.
You mean, just like everybody else?
Jose Ramirez begs to differ
Charlie Morton begs to differ.
I have no problem with him getting what he can. I’m just replying to “Judge won’t go to San Fransico too large a park.”
@BlueSkiesLA
Unfortunately that is not true, just ask Albies, Acuna, Harris II, to mention a few. What you’re asserting is true in most cases, but not all the time.
@Fred. Ask them, how, exactly? We hear a lot of stories about players discounting their salaries to play somewhere, but they are only stories, and they never seem to hold up to scrutiny. Take Acuna for example. His extension bought out three arbitration years and it was still the largest contract ever given to a player his age. It also sets him up to become a free agent by age 30. Salary discounts are the unicorns of baseball. Often rumored, never actually seen.
@Joe. I didn’t assume you have a problem with it. My only point is this is what everybody does, and not just ballplayers.
@BlueSkies_LA, Saying stories of regional preference don’t hold up to scrutiny just isn’t true. I referenced Charlie Morton, who said in an interview that he was tempted by a very good offer from the Red Sox in 2020, but chose the Braves because it was close to his home in Bradenton, FL. It’s well documented that he signed with the Rays earlier for the very same reason.
Alex Hinshaw. said in a chat here on MLBTR that when he became a FA he told his agent to collect all the offers, and he’d select one, unless one of those offers came from the Padres. He’s from SD. He said it didn’t matter what the Padres offer was, but told his agent just to accept it, because that’s where he wanted to play.
Plus none of us know every player’s reasons for signing where they did. Assuming that it’s always about the money doesn’t hold water.
@Crime Dog HR- not trying to argue, but the 3 great players you mentioned weren’t Free Agents but rather extensions to team controlled players. Extensions to young players are almost always at a team discount. Free Agency? Not so much.
I think Jose Ramirez said he wanted $200 million. Cleveland said they didn’t have that in their budget. Ramirez asked what they could do. Cleveland said $150 million (or whatever). Ramirez said ok, let’s do that. It’s rare. It’s nice to see. But it does happen
@tad2b13. A player saying they have a preference for playing somewhere and them taking less money to do it are two, very different things. Morton, for example, was not saying that he took less money to play in Atlanta, and based on everything we’ve seen, believing he did is not a good assumption. Far more likely a player’s agent takes the offer he’s already received to the team where he’d prefer to play and asks them if they can match it. Hinshaw is not much of a counter-example. His career was barely a blip, so it’s hardly likely he was overwhelmed with offers. Players hire agents so they can get market rate for their services.
@Gwynning. Not team discounts so much as buyouts of arbitration years. Those seasons are discounted by definition. Typically players who have their arb years bought out with an extension are looking for a little more on the front end in exchange for a little less on the back end. This is what we saw with Acuna.
@WestCoast89. Go out and find that quote if you can. I’d love to see it.
Ramirez was already under team control for two seasons. Without the extension he would have played 2022 for $12M. After, he’s getting $22M. The new money in his extension is $115 over the five added years. So you tell me how much more he could have gotten for his age 31-35 seasons. Doesn’t look so far off to me.
@Gwynning
Totally fair comment. The point I was making is that the players I mentioned didn’t have to put pen to paper. Atlanta got good deals with those 3 young excellent players. i think it was more of a case that Albies, Acuna, Harris II, wanted to be with Atlanta, more so than making the whole thing about money as the prime motivator for inking their contracts.
@BlueSkies
Albies, Acuna, Harris II, could have got more for sure if all of the aforementioned players made it primarily about the money.
It seems money wasn’t their primary driver or motivator.
For sure? Really?
Keep in mind, players who extend early are being bought out of arbitration years, and the teams are taking a significant risk in making long-term commitments to players with minimal major league service time. This is why they can’t bargain for as much AAV as players who get to free agency with a demonstrated track record. Another example. Juan Soto turned down what seemed like a fantastic extension offer because he knows if he can keep up his performance until he reaches free agency some team will guarantee him a whole lot more.
@BlueSkies_LA, You’re still just assuming, when nobody knows what offers, or for how much, were made, that every time it’s about the money. Without all the facts you’re assuming every other factor takes a back seat.
The fact that Morton was quoted as being “tempted” by the Red Sox’ offer suggests it might have been better that the Braves’. I saw a rumor that the Sox’ offer was for 2 years. He signed a 1 year deal with the Braves. Most players will opt for a longer deal even at a lower AAV.
You can dismiss Alex Hinshaw all you want on the basis that he wasn’t a major piece, probably because his example goes contrary to your assertion. But it still stands that he was expecting multiple offers, and said he would sign with the Pads’ if they made an offer regardless of what the offer was. Plus, Hinshaw is a guy where the money would be more important since he didn’t have the earning power of a big star.
What I said was my own personal brief summarization. But I got this mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/jose-ramirez-on-contrac…
I predicted last October that the 2021 Giants would be the largest single season aberration MLB history and that they would be an 85 to 90 win team this year, and though that proved to be optimistic due to EVERYTHING going wrong, the current record is more in line with the talent on the roster.
On-topic, I’m curious as to how the Giants spend their money this off-season. They’re clearly more than just an Aaron Judge away from sustainable contention. I think Farhan is smart enough to know this and I would expect to see a lot of moderately-priced upgrades to plug holes, while they continue to develop the farm.
You can tell that after this season, FZ and the front office are reeling from the optics of looking like a small market team in big market clothes.
This is the very first time I’ve even heard Zaidi’s contract discussed by the FO. All of the comments suggest his job is secure for some time to come, but I think he has heard the message loud and clear that another year of bargain shopping for platoons is not going to cut it.
The team has money, and spending money is the easiest thing in the world; It’s been pointed out many times here, that it takes a lot of restraint to not do that, to operate as this FO has during this rebuild. But the time has come to start building around a bonafide star, and I expect that will happen this offseason.
I hope so. The Giants desperately need a young star.
Central Valley — Several actually. Everyday bats, like Trea Turner, Rafael Devers, Judge—in that ilk. At least two plus re-signing Rodon or finding another #1/#2 (not so easy).
Zaidi should be held accountable this offseason. He must sign/trade for big time players and re-sign Rodon. Dumpster diving can’t continue. Another offseason like this past one should result in Zaidi being fired.
He’s still one of the brightest minds in baseball, and he’s fielded competitive teams through the rebuild. He’s spun a lot of straw into gold in those waiver transactions. He’s very much a good guy to have at the helm.
The Giants are going to have to navigate the next few offseasons carefully. The team is in need of a franchise face, but also do not want to get saddled by bad contracts; that would just put them right back to where they were coming off of the championships. It’s taken this long to turn the page on many aging veterans; the team doesn’t need a fresh crop of them.
It’s not going to be easy, but I have faith in Z. I like the idea that “everything is on the table,” which to me means that the team is going to make moves based around what plays out. Being opportunistic is a much better mindset than “spending stupid money” like the Phillies were keen to do.
I wish they could fire fans.
Not sure what the largest deviation in wins is, but the Marlins -38 game difference from ’97 to ’98 has to be close. Of course the fire sale made that different, but if that is the record, then that’s the record, which the Giants won’t be close to breaking.
But but oooooooh….(in Sulu voice) It’s Gabe Kapler……
I don’t care how bad the Giants are or how good the Dodgers are, the Giants should NEVER finish 30+ games behind LA in a season
Never say never…
Relax please this is the real world. It happens.
…with the reigning Manager of the Year and a genius running the front office.
I note with interest that Johnson’s pain threshold seemingly kicks in above $180M, with the “we’re willing to do that” remark. That’s not an endorsement, just a qualified “if we have to” remark. It’s important, because getting Judge, a solid SS, and having to replace or resign Rodon would push them to that level before sinking real money into the bullpen and dealing with other raises.
And whether they like it or not, it may be that last $20M up to $200M that’s the difference between challenging the Dodgers or banking on the wild card.
What happened to Heliot Ramos? Why does it seem that even going into next year, they will still not have any MLB prospects ready?
Good question, I was wondering the same thing..it was all hype, just like Joey Bart..as we know, not all top draft picks pan out
Is Carlos Correa an option?
Dodger fans would get to boo him 15 times a year. Wouldn’t that be a kick in the pants?
I think either he or Turner will end up in SF.
As for Ramos, he’s one of the guys Johnson had in mind when he says “and a farm system that I would say hasn’t progressed as quickly as we’d like to see.” It doesn’t mean Ramos and several others won’t be ready by 2024, but apart from Harrison, they may go into 2023 with little to no help from the top tiers of their system.
Never been a fan of the “money coming off the books” theory. If a team doesn’t have at least equivalent talent coming up through the minors, then they have to buy that talent back on the free agent market, or get worse. Unless those expiring contracts are bad ones, those are the only choices.
So how is the Giants’ farm system? Middling, at best. If they really want to compete next year, they’re going to have to spend. Big.
The Giant’s farm is currently middling, but that’s due to a regression down from a top ten or so. That says to me that it has the potential to be better than middling. Not as good as the Dodgers farm, but it should continue to improve.
Some of that regression is from their top prospect, Luciano, being out with injury for a good chunk of time. He’s back now, and he hit well in the Eugene Emeralds High-A West championship.
Odds Longoria/Rodon will be back?
Rodon, it’s possible, Longo, not so sure. He could fit in as a platoon guy.
I hope Rodon comes back, pitching is always a premium. But I hope Longo gets bought out. Even when he’s healthy his skills at the plate look like they’ve deteriorated to me. He’s still good with the glove, but it seems like he chases low pitches, and then takes third strikes a lot. It’s like he isn’t seeing the ball well these days, even though he runs into one every once in a while.
I tend to agree with you and Balk. Longoria will get bought out, and they’ll attempt to lockup Rodon long term.
Guys in the clubhouse specifically the bullpen do not like gabe kapler.
Considering that the bullpen flat sucks …
They all suck
Zack Littell approves
To make the NL West more competitive, I’d like to see the Giants sign Bogarts and Judge. They’ll need to find better pitching though.
How much could Judge make in Silicon Valley endorsements? Hmm.
First…..get rid of Kapler….Ron Wotus would be the ideal replacement….He is old school and he gets “it”….Wotus would have the full respect from the locker room.
Agreed. Am so sick of watching him manage games. And can’t believe that many big name free agents would be banging down the high cost of living door to be checking over their shoulder every time they came to the plate to see if they were going to get swapped out in one of his moves that ever seems to really chang things. Agree with Wotus. Would love to see him get a chance.
Agreed. Am so sick of watching him manage games. And can’t believe that many big name free agents would be banging down the high cost of living door to be checking over their shoulder every time they came to the plate to see if they were going to get swapped out in one of his moves that ever seems to really chang things. Agree with Wotus. Would love to see him get a chance
Kapler was manager of the year last year; he’s not getting sacked unless this year gets repeated a few more times in a row.
I don’t like him either, but the players seem to. Aside from Zack Littell, that is.
Call me skeptical, but until someone like Judge signs the dotted line I’m not keeping my hopes up that the Giants will actually open their coffers for top tier talent.
Reminds me of the Red Sox situation
Turner and Judge are not going anywhere. Give 150-200 million to 4, 5 or 6 good young players. Something like that. This is a team sport. Look at the Rays. No big stars. Good pitching. And they always make the playoffs.
Will Zack Littell be on the roster for 2023?
Wow after watching all season – I’m shocked payroll was at 155 million, Sure didn’t seem like a 155 Million dollar team.
That being said – there are contracts on the books for next year – but nothing but arbitration for 2024 Tommy LaStella’s backloaded contract pays him 11.5 next year for goodness sakes.
I think payroll should jump next year by a fair amount, but if the plan works by 2024 there should be a fresh crop of young talent to balance out payroll for few years. So 2023 would be the last big hit payroll for few years.
To be honest its hard to believe heat Farhan can compete with the Dodgers – may be bale to find lightning in the bottle occasionally but the Dodgers farm system is light years ahead on producing actual MLB ready talent
DeSclafani’s on the books for $12M in “24.
Tommy LaStatue will be thrown in on a deal or DFA’d. His roster spot is too valuable to be wasted.