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13 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the World Series kicking off on Friday, we’re only a couple weeks from the opening of the offseason. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.

Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

In recent weeks, we’ve provided periodic updates on players qualifying for minor league free agency. Here are the latest, courtesy of the MiLB.com transactions tracker.

Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Mets Finalizing Extension With Pitching Coach Jeremy Hefner

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The Mets are finalizing a contract extension with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Assuming the deal is completed, it’ll keep the 36-year-old in the role for at least a fourth season.

A former Mets pitcher, Hefner has quickly risen through the coaching ranks after wrapping up his playing career following the 2016 season. Initially hired as a scout by the Twins heading into 2017, he made the jump to bullpen coach by 2019. He spent just one year working in that capacity for Minnesota before returning to his former big league organization as pitching coach over the 2019-20 offseason.

That hiring was overseen by former GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Luis Rojas, and the Mets overhauled both their front office and coaching staff not long after. Van Wagenen was dismissed following the 2020 season, while Rojas was fired and replaced by Buck Showalter last winter. Despite the leadership turnover, the Mets have remained steadfast in their belief in Hefner. He retained his position throughout the duration of his initial two-year guarantee, and the Mets exercised an option on his services for 2022 last October.

Puma writes that the Mets were concerned Hefner could both draw interest from other big league clubs and college programs this offseason. The notion of an MLB pitching coach leaving to take a collegiate coaching position may surprise some onlookers, but the Twins were dealt a midseason blow this summer when pitching coach Wes Johnson resigned to take the same role with LSU. Puma suggests that a chance to return closer to his native Oklahoma could’ve been appealing to Hefner, but he and the New York organization are apparently on the verge of continuing their relationship.

The Mets have been an above-average pitching team since Hefner took over, ranking 11th in cumulative ERA (3.93) and second in strikeout rate (25.7%) since the start of the 2020 campaign. No team topped New York’s 26.3% strikeout percentage this past season, while only the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees allowed fewer runs. As with any coach, Hefner isn’t solely responsible for the club’s results. He’s certainly had the fortune of working with a number of talented pitchers — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Edwin Díaz among them. Yet it’s also clear Hefner’s a respected pitching mind within the industry, and it’s no surprise the Mets prioritized keeping him around given the team’s success on the mound.

Puma adds that most of Showalter’s staff is expected to return in 2023, although he suggests there could be a few changes. Showalter himself is certain to be back after leading the club to 101 wins during the first season of a reported three-year contract.

A Closer Look At The Braves’ Payroll

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Among the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans at the moment is whether star shortstop Dansby Swanson will be retained, and whether the long-circulating speculation about a potential run at Jacob deGrom, who’ll opt out of his Mets contract in a couple weeks, will come to fruition in the looming offseason. Either of those endeavors would likely require a nine-figure expenditure, and while Atlanta has spent plenty of money over the past half year, it’s worth taking a deeper look to see just how plausible those scenarios — and any other major splashes on the free-agent or trade markets — might be.

Firstly, with regard to that comment about the Braves spending money, any look at their payroll should begin with a recap of president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos’ historic run of contract extensions. Dating back to March, each of Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM), Austin Riley (ten years, $212MM), Michael Harris II (eight years, $72MM) and Spencer Strider (six years, $75MM) have put pen to paper on long-term deals, effectively etching them in stone alongside Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies as the Braves’ foundation for the foreseeable future. The Braves also preemptively exercised Charlie Morton’s $20MM club option for 2023 and tacked on another $20MM club option for the 2024 season.

It might not have been quite as jarring as seeing the Rangers spend a half-billion dollars on a pair of free agents in a span of about 72 hours last winter, but the Braves still put down their own half-billion dollar investment to keep the bulk of this 2022 core intact for the long haul. That doesn’t even include the eye-opening deadline addition of closer Raisel Iglesias, whom the Braves acquired at a relatively cut-rate prospect cost because they agreed to absorb the entirety of his remaining contract from the Angels. He’ll be paid $48MM from 2023-25.

What does that do to their payroll? As one might expect, even though the majority of the extensions have bargain potential and are backloaded in nature, the 2023 books have inflated in a hurry. The Braves owe a combined $153.8MM to the 15 players who have guaranteed contracts on next year’s books. Add in a potential $12.5MM salary for Jake Odorizzi, who has a player option, and the number jumps to $166.3MM.

Further taking into account Matt Swartz’s projected $20MM in arbitration salaries to Max Fried, A.J. Minter and Mike Soroka (presuming non-tenders for Guillermo Heredia, Silvino Bracho and Tyler Matzek, who recently had Tommy John surgery) — the number balloons to $188.3MM for 19 players. Round that out with pre-arbitration players earning at or near the league minimum, and the Braves will have just over $193MM on next year’s Opening Day roster, before even making an addition.

That figure checks in north of what was this season’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll of roughly $178MM, making the Braves one of just three teams in MLB whose current 2023 payroll projection would be a record high before even making a single move. (The Rockies and Blue Jays are also in this boat, by my calculation.)

Does that mean hope is lost for a significant offseason expenditure? Not necessarily. Braves chairman Terry McGuirk told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution earlier this month that his goal is to be able to allow his front office to field one of the sport’s five largest payrolls. That doesn’t mean the Braves will spend for the sole purpose of soaring up the payroll ranks, but it’s nonetheless a bold declaration from a team’s control person and the type of candor we rarely see from such personnel.

For context’s sake, the sport’s top five Opening Day payrolls in 2022, per figures from Cot’s Contracts, belonged to the Dodgers ($281MM), Mets ($264.5MM), Yankees ($246MM), Phillies ($229MM) and Padres ($211MM). The Braves already ranked ninth in Opening Day payroll this past season, and the projected increase to $193-194MM could well boost them another spot or two.

Of course, when looking at large-scale expenditures and top-five payrolls, the notion of the luxury tax has to be considered. The Braves have never before paid that tax, but if McGuirk is being earnest about fielding a top-five payroll, incurring luxury-related penalization becomes practically a given.

It should be noted, too, that while the Braves’ bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season should check in around $193MM (as things currently stand), the luxury bill is quite a bit higher. That’s the one “downside” to locking in so many stars so early; those extensions come with inherent luxury hits that would not have existed had the team gone year-to-year. Luxury taxation is based on the average annual value of a contract, so keeping Strider and Harris on one-year, pre-arbitration contracts for the 2023 season would’ve meant they’d count for around $1.5MM combined against the tax threshold. Instead, they’ll now come with a combined $21.5MM hit. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez already has the Braves projected for a bit more than $217MM in luxury obligations — only about $16MM shy of next year’s $233MM first-tier threshold.

Perhaps the Braves will be able to find some takers for a portion of the less-desirable contracts on the books. It’s hard to imagine any team wanting much to do with the remaining two years and $36MM on Marcell Ozuna’s ill-fated four-year deal, but finding a taker for Odorizzi’s final season or the one year and $4.5MM owed to backup catcher Manny Pina is more feasible.

Still, there’s no viable scenario where the Braves could shed enough payroll to be able to re-sign Swanson and make a play for one of the market’s other top free agents without skyrocketing into luxury territory. If McGuirk and Liberty Media (the corporation that owns the Braves) are genuinely willing to push toward a top-five payroll, though, then the Braves can’t be ruled out from making ample free-agent splashes this winter.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that the team could yet have hope of extending top starter Max Fried. If that’s the case, the notion of re-signing Swanson and extending Fried alone would push the Braves into luxury territory. In other words, merely keeping the current group together will make the Braves a luxury tax payor. Adding a marquee free agent/trade acquisition (in addition to a potential Swanson and/or Fried deal) could send them hurtling toward the second tier of luxury penalization.

If the Braves are going to have a particularly active offseason — or even if they’re just going to maintain the status quo — they’re going to have to follow a Padres-esque trajectory and set themselves up as potentially annual luxury-tax payors for the foreseeable future.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time.  Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

Aside from a new manager, the White Sox don’t seem destined for a major shakeup after a very disappointing 2022 season.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lance Lynn, SP: $19.5MM through 2023.  Includes $18MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
  • Yasmani Grandal, C: $18.25MM through 2023
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $46MM through 2024.  Includes $25MM club option ($5MM buyout) for 2025
  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $29MM through 2023.  Includes $15MM club option ($15MM buyout) for 2024
  • Joe Kelly, RP: $10MM through 2023.  Includes $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
  • Kendall Graveman, RP: $16MM through 2024
  • Eloy Jimenez, DH/LF: $25.5MM through 2024.  Includes $16.5MM club option ($3MM buyout) for 2025 (also has club option for 2026)
  • Luis Robert, CF: $39MM through 2025.  Includes $20MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2026 (also has club option for 2027)
  • Leury Garcia, IF/OF: $11MM through 2024
  • Jake Diekman, RP: $4.5MM through 2023.  Includes $4MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $10.5MM through 2024.  Includes $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout) for 2025

Option Decisions

  • AJ Pollock, LF/CF: $13MM player option with a $5MM buyout
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (also has club option for 2024)
  • Josh Harrison, 2B: $5.625MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Total 2023 commitments: $135.47MM
Total future commitments: $249.85MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

What went wrong with the 2022 White Sox?  Take your pick.  Start with former manager Tony La Russa, whose storied tenures with the A’s, White Sox and Cardinals landed him in the Hall of Fame in 2014.  Upon being hired by the White Sox after the 2020 season, he’d been out of the dugout for nine years.  The White Sox won the AL Central under La Russa last year, but finished in second place with a .500 record in 2022.  Health issues prevented La Russa from managing in the season’s final month, and he eventually announced those issues would require him to step down rather than finish out a contract that ran through 2023.  Regarding the disappointing ’22 season, La Russa explained in a statement, “I was hired to provide positive, difference-making leadership and support. Our record is proof. I did not do my job.”

The club’s search for a new manager is ongoing, with Ozzie Guillen, Ron Washington, Pedro Grifol, and Joe Espada among those in the running.  Managers are not measurable in the way players are, and I think often tend to get too much credit or blame for a team’s record.  So I won’t try to get into the merits of each candidate, but hopefully this time around Rick Hahn, the team’s GM for the last decade, will have autonomy to make his own choice.  Hahn’s place as the team’s GM seems secure at least for now.  As Jon Heyman of the New York Post put it at the end of September, “It’s unlikely longtime White Sox general manager Rick Hahn will pay for the team’s stark underachievement…while owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s legendary loyalty worked against the baseball ops department with the Tony La Russa hiring, it likely works in their favor now.”

Turning to the players, disappointments and failures abound for a club that was a consensus favorite to win the AL Central and instead finished 11 games behind the Guardians.  We’ll start with the outfield, which served as the worst defensive unit in baseball.  Much of that has to do with Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets, who combined to take 30% of the team’s defensive innings in the outfield.  Vaughn, in particular, probably rates as the worst defensive outfielder in baseball in 2022.  While Sheets was exactly league average as a hitter, Vaughn improved to a 113 wRC+ as a sophomore.  We’ll get to first base later in this post, but that was Vaughn’s position through college and his brief time in the minors, and it seems he’ll finally settle in there for 2023.

That leaves the White Sox with only one outfielder definitively penciled in for next year: center fielder Luis Robert.  Robert, 25, did not take the star turn many anticipated in 2022.  Health has been a big part of that.  Robert played only 68 games in 2021 due to a right hip flexor strain that cost him more than three months.  Robert hit so well in 43 games since returning from that injury that 2022 seemed like his possible coming-out party.  Instead, he played in only 98 games, managing a 111 wRC+ while playing a middling center field.

Robert battled a groin strain in April, but then went on a 62-game tear in which he posted a 139 wRC+ despite a COVID stint in the middle.  After that run of success, Robert dealt with lightheadedness, blurred vision, a wrist sprain, and a bruised hand.  While Robert’s talent remains tantalizing, he’s played in just over half of his team’s games since 2021 and the White Sox have to be ready to call upon backups often next year.

One of those backups could again be AJ Pollock, who must decide between a $13MM player option and a $5MM buyout after the season.  As a 35-year-old coming off a down year, Pollock doesn’t figure to top the $8MM net value of that option on the open market, so the smart money is on him staying put.  The Sox also gave center field innings to Adam Engel, who can be retained affordably through arbitration but is not a lock given a 63 wRC+ on the season.

Pollock, Vaughn, and Eloy Jimenez served as Chicago’s left fielders this year.  Assuming Pollock takes more of a backup role, Vaughn moves to first, and Jimenez gets increased DH time, the White Sox need a new starting left fielder.  Several key White Sox hitters struggled against righties this year.  Free agency offers a particularly solid fit in Andrew Benintendi, a quality defender who hits right-handed pitching well.  Joc Pederson is another palatable option.  Pollock can complement in a lefty-mashing role.

Right field continues to be a revolving door for the White Sox; they haven’t found any success at the position since Avisail Garcia’s 2017 campaign.  24-year-old Oscar Colas might be able to break the mold.  Colas signed in January for $2.7MM and spent most of the season hitting well at High-A and Double-A, finishing his season at Triple-A.  Yoelqui Cespedes could be a factor as well, though he didn’t hit well enough at Double-A to suggest he’ll succeed in MLB.

Since neither the health of Robert nor the success of Colas is guaranteed, the Sox could consider a veteran addition capable of playing both center and right field.  Mike Yastrzemski, Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier, and Ramon Laureano could fit that description.  Bellinger could be non-tendered by the Dodgers, while Kiermaier’s club option will be bought out by the Rays.  Yastrzemski and Laureano are arbitration-eligible for the Giants and A’s, respectively, but could be trade candidates this winter.

Moving to the infield, the White Sox are in a tough spot with Yoan Moncada.  The 27-year-old is locked up at significant cost through at least 2024, but he has continued to alternate good and bad seasons since coming to the White Sox.  In 2022 he was both bad (career-worst 76 wRC+) and injured (oblique strain, multiple hamstring strains).  Barring a trade, the team will have to pencil Moncada in at third base again, with Jake Burger still serving as the backup option.

At shortstop, Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option is an easy choice to exercise.  Anderson is an excellent player when healthy, but has only played in 62% of the team’s games since 2021.  This year he dealt with a groin strain and a torn ligament in his left hand.  The White Sox caught lightning in a bottle with the strong play of veteran Elvis Andrus, who was released by the A’s in August.  If Andrus departs for a more clear starting job elsewhere, the club will need a good backup plan at shortstop much as they do with Robert in center field.

Second base was handled by Josh Harrison and Leury Garcia in 2022.  Harrison, 35, played capably, but there’s still a pretty good chance the team declines his $5.625MM option after the World Series.  Second base has been a void for the White Sox even longer than right field has; they haven’t really had a player excel there since Tadahito Iguchi in 2005, excepting 109 solid plate appearances from Nick Madrigal in the pandemic-shortened season.  Speaking of Madrigal, there’s a fair chance he’s made available this winter if the Cubs sign a shortstop.  The White Sox do still have Garcia under contract.  Danny Mendick could be an option as well, once he’s recovered from a torn ACL suffered in June.  The free agent market could offer players such as Jean Segura or Kolten Wong if their options are declined.  Brandon Drury could be a solid addition given his ability to play both second and third base.

Over at first base, vibes are strong that Jose Abreu will be allowed to leave as a free agent after nine successful seasons.  While I understand the desire to plug Vaughn in at his natural position and leave DH at-bats for Jimenez, Sheets, and Yasmani Grandal, the team seems fairly nonchalant about losing arguably their best hitter.  It’s true that a team with Abreu, Vaughn, and Jimenez has to make a defensive compromise by putting one of the latter two into a corner outfield spot.  Still, the offense takes a hit with the probable loss of Abreu.

In Jimenez, the White Sox have a third core position player who has missed significant time over the last two seasons.  Jimenez has missed even more time than Anderson and Robert, playing in only 43% of the team’s games since 2021.  26 in November, Jimenez remains capable of a monster offensive season if only he can stay healthy.  In 2021, he tore a pectoral muscle in spring training and made his season debut in late July.  This year, it was a late April hamstring strain that required surgery and cost Jimenez more than two months.  While the lack of communication between players and teams during the lockout is a significant variable here, it’s fair to ask: why can’t the White Sox keep Robert, Anderson, and Jimenez healthy?  Is it something inherent in the players, or the team?

Behind the plate, the White Sox have a repeat of the Moncada situation: stuck with with a player who has a big contract and hit really, really poorly in 2022.  Grandal, 34 in November, led all catchers with a 158 wRC+ in 2021 and was one of the worst-hitting backstops with a 68 mark this year.  Grandal dealt with back and knee injuries this year, following offseason knee surgery.  Unless they can unload his franchise-record contract somehow ($18.25MM of which remains), the White Sox have to hope he can bounce back and provide value in ’23.  Grandal hasn’t topped 627 1/3 innings behind the dish since 2019.  He needs to be complemented with a starting-caliber catcher.  Seby Zavala was able to fill that role this year with a surprising 111 wRC+ at the plate.  A veteran addition would still make sense here.

Moving to the rotation, the White Sox received better results than they could possibly have expected out of Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto, who combined for 337 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball.  The only thing holding Cease back from being a bona fide ace is his walk rate, which went up a tick this year to 10.4%.  He still managed to post a ridiculous 1.51 ERA over his final 23 starts.  The White Sox control Cease for three more years, and they may consider trying to lock him up beyond that.  Cueto, signed to a minor league deal in April, may sign elsewhere as a free agent.

Along with Moncada and Grandal, Lucas Giolito performed well below expectations this year.  While his SIERA was virtually identical to 2021, his ERA rose from 3.53 to 4.90.  Strikeouts, fastball velocity, and walks all moved in the wrong direction, and notably, Giolito’s batting average on balls in play rose from .269 to .340.  That can’t all be blamed on the team’s defense or on bad luck, as Giolito’s pitches were indeed hit harder than last year, per Statcast.  There’s not much to be done here except try to find a way to bounce back; Giolito is still a bargain at his projected $10.8MM arbitration salary.

On the other end of the spectrum, Michael Kopech pitched to a 4.73 SIERA but managed a 3.54 ERA, despite being the staff’s pre-eminent flyball pitcher working with the game’s worst defensive outfield.  Much of that ERA stems from a .223 BABIP.  It’s worth noting: if the skills Giolito and Kopech demonstrated in 2022 – strikeouts, walks, and groundballs – remain the exact same next year, you should expect Giolito to have the better season.

At any rate, the White Sox have four starting pitchers locked in for 2023.  Even with internal options like Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and eventually Garrett Crochet, the Sox would be well-served adding a starting pitcher.

With a collective 4.00 ERA, the White Sox did not get great results from their bullpen.  But again, ERA is unreliable, and the group did miss bats.  Having traded Craig Kimbrel on April 1st, the highest-leverage innings went to Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, and Reynaldo Lopez.  The first three are under contract for next year, and Lopez is under team control.  Veterans Joe Kelly and Jake Diekman are under contract as well, so Chicago’s bullpen seems pretty well set for next year unless they trade someone to trim salary.

The White Sox opened the season with a payroll over $190MM – easily the highest in franchise history.  Assuming Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Lopez, and Mendick are tendered contracts, they’ll have about $167MM committed to 18 players.  Add in eight more players at the league minimum and the payroll is around $172MM.  So if you’re Hahn, what do you do with a roster that is already largely in place for next year, and limited financial wiggle room?

Running a similar group back next year with a new manager isn’t as crazy as it sounds.  The Sox can add one decent defensive outfielder and get Vaughn into his natural position, and the outfield defense will improve greatly.  They could use a new second baseman plus rotation and catching depth.  Maybe Hahn will shake things up with some trades, though it’s not a team with any real surplus except possibly well-paid relievers.  Most of the pieces remain in place for a 90-win team – particularly if Anderson, Robert, and Jimenez are able to stay healthy next year.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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Despite the continued excellence of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the Angels had another disappointing season in 2022. With Ohtani one year from free agency and the team for sale, will 2023 be the last hurrah before a huge turning point for the organization?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mike Trout, OF: $283MM through 2030
  • Anthony Rendon, 3B: $152MM through 2026
  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $30MM through 2023
  • David Fletcher, IF: $20MM through 2025 (including $1.5MM buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Max Stassi, C: $14.5MM through 2024 (including $500K buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Aaron Loup, LHP: $9.5MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Ryan Tepera, RHP: $7MM through 2023

Total 2023 commitments: $130.95MM
Total future commitments: $516MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

There was a period in 2022 when things were looking up for the Angels. The season actually began fairly well, with the club sporting a record of 27-17 through May 24. That was good enough for them to sit just a single game behind the Astros in the AL West, nine games ahead of the Mariners and firmly in the top AL Wild Card spot. Unfortunately, it’s essentially been a steep downward slide since that date. On May 25, the Angels started a losing streak that would eventually stretch to 14 games, with manager Joe Maddon getting fired during that period. Third base coach Phil Nevin took over on an interim basis. The managerial shakeup couldn’t change their trajectory, as they continued sliding and finished with a 73-89 record, missing the postseason for the eighth consecutive season and finishing below .500 seven straight. (Nevin has since been given a one-year deal to manage the team for 2023.)

On their way to that disappointing finish, it was reported in August that owner Arte Moreno was exploring selling the team, which has the potential to cast a pall over the near-term future of the franchise. Perhaps a new owner will emerge and inject some optimism into the club, like we’ve seen with Steve Cohen and the Mets. But it’s also possible that the uncertainty around the team’s future makes it difficult to make deals with players. Juan Soto seemed to be the most untouchable player on the Nationals, even though the club was trading away it’s veterans for prospects for most of 2021 and 2022. But the Nats are also exploring a sale and Soto was reportedly unwilling to consider an extension until the ownership question was settled, which quickly led to Soto being traded to the Padres, something that seemed unthinkable just a few weeks prior.

As this has been going on, many in the baseball world have begun salivating at the prospect of their favorite club acquiring two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, assuming he will follow a similar path to Soto. There are some reasons to think an Ohtani trade could actually come to fruition, given that he’s now only a year away from reaching the open market. Extension talks have apparently not gained much traction and the Angels even toyed with the idea of trading him at this year’s deadline, though Moreno reportedly refused to approve any deal.

Until there’s more clarity with regards to the ownership situation, the rest of the club’s offseason plans figure to be shrouded in mystery as well. Is Ohtani available in trades or not? Will Moreno be aggressive in what could be last chance to put together a winner, or avoid cluttering the books with more lengthy commitments in order to appeal to potential buyers? If a new owner emerges in the coming months, will they be an all-in Steve Cohen-type or decide to tear it all down immediately like when Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter took over the Marlins? General manager Perry Minasian figures to have lots on his to-do list, regardless of who he’s reporting to.

The Angels have often struggled to put together a solid starting rotation, at least in part due to an unwillingness to pay for starters. The last time they signed a free agent starting pitcher to a deal longer than one year was the two-year deal given to Joe Blanton in December of 2012. Despite that, and despite everything that went wrong in 2022, the rotation might have turned a corner. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote back in September about the encouraging signs shown by Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez. Those three, alongside Ohtani, give the Angels a decent front four going into the offseason. The Angels have been using a six-man rotation to accommodate Ohtani in recent years, but have at least considered going with a five-man group next year. There are a few in-house options to take a fifth or a sixth rotation spot, such as Touki Toussaint, Tucker Davidson, Chase Silseth and Janson Junk, though no one in that group has done enough to guarantee a spot at this point. There’s also Griffin Canning, who has shown promise in the past but been limited so much by injuries that it’s hard to rely on him going forward.

It’s an impressive amount of depth compared to recent years, but there should still be room for at least one outside addition. However, if the Angels stick to their one-year limit on starting pitching, it will make things challenging. They’d likely be looking at options like Drew Smyly, Wade Miley or re-signing Michael Lorenzen. If they are willing to make a deeper dive, they could be in play for names like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga or Mike Clevinger, though it seems unlikely the Angels would jump to the top of the market and try for Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon.

The club’s bullpen was middle of the pack in 2022, with their 3.97 ERA coming in 18th among the 30 MLB teams. Most of that group can be retained, with only Archie Bradley heading for free agency. Injuries limited him to 18 2/3 innings and kept him from being a key contributor in 2022. They also dealt closer Raisel Iglesias at the deadline, but they may have found an in-house replacement. Jimmy Herget, known as “The Human Glitch” because of his funky mechanics, threw 69 innings this year with a 2.48 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 40.1% ground ball rate. He shimmied his way up the depth chart and eventually earned nine saves and seven holds, most of those coming after the Iglesias trade. Whether the Angels believe in Herget is their next closer or not, there’s plenty of room for improvement in the bullpen and they should be looking to make outside additions.

Behind the plate, the club faces an interesting question. Max Stassi had a pair of solid seasons in 2020 and 2021, but 2022 was a step backwards. He hit .180/.267/.303 for a wRC+ of 63 this year, a big drop from his .250/.333/.452 batting line over the previous two campaigns, which led to a wRC+ of 113. He still has a couple years left on his extension and will likely get some time to readjust, but the club might want to have a backup plan. It’s possible that they already have one in place, as they acquired Logan O’Hoppe from the Phillies at the deadline in the Brandon Marsh trade. He was mashing in Double-A and the club gave him an MLB audition down the stretch. It would be risky to go into the season relying on a catcher with five MLB games under his belt, though he did hit .283/.416/.544 in the minors this year for a wRC+ of 159. Perhaps the Angels will let him and Stassi battle for playing time and hope that at least one of them works out. If they want a bit of insurance, they could sign a respected veteran like Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges or Tucker Barnhart.

Similar to Stassi, Jared Walsh disappointed at first base on the heels of a couple of strong seasons. He hit 38 home runs over 2020 and 2021, slashing .280/.338/.531 for a wRC+ of 130. In 2022, his batting line was .215/.269/.374 for a wRC+ of just 78. It’s possible that health was the culprit here, as Walsh underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in September. He’ll likely get a chance to show that 2022 was just a fluke due to injury, but he’ll be a great unknown going into next season. If it emerges during the offseason that Walsh won’t be ready for Spring and they look for a stopgap, someone like Donovan Solano could make sense, as he could slide to another position once Walsh returns.

At third base, the Angels will be looking for a bounceback from Anthony Rendon. Given the years and dollars remaining on his contract, he’s not going anywhere. It doesn’t really make sense to give up on him, anyway. He’s had two straight injury-marred seasons, but was excellent for four straight campaigns prior to that. From 2017 to 2020, he hit .307/.399/.550 for a wRC+ of 146 and also provided above-average defense, leading to a tally of 21.1 fWAR over that period. He’s going into his age-33 campaign and perhaps shouldn’t be expected to be as good as his peak, though the Angels can do little but hope for him to stay healthy and get back into good form.

The middle infield is perhaps the area of the club in greatest need of an overhaul. In 2022, the Angels used a rotating hodgepodge of role players and utility types, which included Matt Duffy, Andrew Velazquez, Tyler Wade and many others. If one were to try to project their lineup for next year with only in-house options, it would probably result in David Fletcher at shortstop and Luis Rengifo at second base. Fletcher missed most of 2022 with injuries, only getting into 61 games and not hitting very well in that time. His .255/.288/.333 batting line resulted in a 75 wRC+. Outside of a tremendous showing in the shortened 2020 season, Fletcher’s time in the big leagues has resulted in four below-average offensive seasons. He does post strong defensive numbers wherever he plays, but he is perhaps better suited to a utility role than an everyday shortstop job.

As for Rengifo, he had a nice season at the plate, despite walking in only 3.3% of his plate appearances. He hit 17 home runs in 127 games, leading to a batting line of .264/.294/.429, 103 wRC+. The Angels probably would like to give Rengifo a chance to see if he can carry that production into his age-26 season, though he’s capable of playing many positions and doesn’t necessarily need to be guarantee a specific spot. As a switch-hitter, it would be theoretically possible for he and the right-handed-hitting Fletcher to form a platoon, though both have hit better against lefties in their careers, making it an imperfect fit.

From a baseball perspective, the Angels make sense as a landing spot for one of the big four shortstops this winter. Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are free agents, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts widely expected to join them by opting out of their respective contracts. Any of those four would give some more pop to the Angel lineup and also help out a defense that was lacking in 2022. The Angels collectively posted a Defensive Runs Saved of eight, which placed them 17th in the majors. Outs Above Average gave them a 1 for 18th place while Ultimate Zone Rating had them in 20th place at -8.0.

From a business perspective, the fit might not be so smooth. As mentioned earlier, it’s unknown if the Angels want to make significant commitments to the long-term payroll. Each of those four shortstops are likely to command deals of seven years or longer. Even if the Angels were willing to add another contract like that to the books, would the player want to come to a team with so much uncertainty hovering over it?

In the short-term, the Angels should have some money to spend, assuming they’re willing to at least match recent payroll levels. Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their Opening Day payroll for 2022 as $189MM, a slight bump over 2021. Their outlay for 2023 is currently at $133MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. Arbitration-eligible players will add about $12MM or so that, bringing the total to the vicinity of $145MM. If they’re willing to spend at a similar level to the past couple of seasons, they will have around $40MM to play with. If they can’t convince one of the top shortstops to make a deal, they would make sense for other middle infielders like Elvis Andrus, Jose Iglesias or Jean Segura.

Turning to the outfield, two spots should be spoken for already, with Trout obviously entrenched in center. Taylor Ward got his first real stretch of MLB playing time, despite some minor injuries, and responded by hitting 23 home runs and slashing .281/.360/.473 for a wRC+ of 137. He should have the right field job.

The big question is left field, with Brandon Marsh having been traded to the Phillies at the deadline. Mickey Moniak came over from the Phils in a separate deal, the Noah Syndergaard one. Despite being a former first overall selection, he hasn’t been able to do much to establish himself at the big league level. In 167 plate appearances over three seasons, he’s hit just .157/.218/.268, wRC+ of 32. There’s also Jo Adell, who got 285 plate appearances this year but hit just .224/.264/.373 for a wRC+ of 77. He also struck out in an untenable 37.5% of those appearances. Neither should be relied upon as an Opening Day outfielder for the club, meaning they should look to outside acquisitions. A run at Aaron Judge seems unlikely given all the question marks around the team, though there are plenty other serviceable options. Mitch Haniger is risky given his health, but that also means he might have to settle for a one-year deal. Perhaps the Angels are the team to offer Michael Conforto the everyday spot for him to showcase his health. However it’s done, this is an area that should be addressed.

The Angels are going into the offseason in a position that is in some ways very familiar but also fraught with uncertainty. Each recent season has finished with disappointment, but still with enough talent on the roster to keep the hope flowing down the road. This year is similar in that regard. They were below .500 in 2022 but they still have Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Ward, a rotation that looks to be in okay shape, and some other nice pieces. However, they also have obvious holes and will face significant challenges in trying to fill them. How willing is Moreno to spend on a team he’s trying to sell? If a new owner steps up, do they want to spend or save? Which players are willing to join a franchise with such a murky future? The answers to those questions will shape not just this offseason, but the future of the franchise.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held an Angels-centric chat on 10-25-22. Click here to read the transcript!

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Designated Hitter

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MLBTR has gone around the diamond with a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class in recent weeks. We’ll wrap up the positional player side of things today by checking in on the crop of designated hitters.

Obviously, any hitter is capable of serving as a DH. Many of the players we’ve mentioned at other positions in this series will see sporadic time at DH next year, typically as a way to get them off their feet defensively for a game without pulling their bat completely from the lineup. For simplicity’s sake, we’ll draw the line here at players who either started 40+ games at designated hitter or played more games at DH than at any other position this year. It’s an admittedly arbitrary cutoff but filters out most players who spent a significant portion of their time in the field (and were thus covered in one of our earlier positional previews).

Everyday Players

Aside from the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Martinez has been a well above-average hitter every year since breaking out with the Tigers in 2014. That was again the case in 2022, although this year’s .274/.341/.448 line was his lightest offensive output since his breakout. The dip was tied almost entirely to a drop in his home run power, as his 16 longballs marked his lowest full-season total since 2013. Martinez saw a corresponding drop in his average exit velocity and hard hit percentage, all somewhat worrying signs for a player who’s now 35.

Even as his batted ball metrics and power dropped, however, Martinez was an eminently productive part of the Boston lineup. He didn’t hit as many homers, but he cranked out a career-high 43 doubles. His exit velocities weren’t elite as they’d been in prior seasons, but they were still above-average. Martinez continued to display a knack for roping line drives all around the ballpark, and his batting average and on-base percentage each remained roughly 30 points higher than the respective league marks. In short, Martinez is still a good hitter, even if he no longer looks like the elite masher he was at his peak.

Martinez has some prior experience in the corner outfield, but he didn’t log a single defensive inning this past season. Any team that signs him is doing so for his bat. His age, lack of defensive value and dip in power will all limit the length of his next deal, but there’ll no doubt be plenty of interest from teams on shorter-term arrangements. The Red Sox seem unlikely to tag Martinez with a $19.65MM qualifying offer, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he lands a two-year deal that tops that overall guarantee (albeit with a lesser annual salary).

It’s difficult to imagine a more unpredictable 2022 season than Carpenter’s. The three-time All-Star hit just .203/.325/.346 between 2019-21, leaving him to take a minor league deal with the Rangers last offseason. He overhauled his swing mechanics and while he performed well in Triple-A, Texas didn’t give him a big league look. After being granted his release from his Rangers deal, Carpenter signed a big league contract with the Yankees to work primarily as a left-handed bench bat.

He very quickly played himself into a more significant role with a staggering offensive explosion. Carpenter popped 15 home runs in just 154 plate appearances, posting a .305/.412/.727 line. He worked primarily at DH but logged some action around the diamond as a bat-first utility type, playing the corner outfield, first base and getting a brief look at third base. That was all a way to get Carpenter’s scorching bat into the lineup, but his incredible season was cut short in August when he fouled a ball off his left foot and suffered a fracture. He missed the rest of the regular season, and while he returned in a limited capacity for the postseason, the effects of the layoff showed. He went 1-12 with nine strikeouts in six playoff games.

Carpenter’s regular season performance was incredible, though. He posted a 217 wRC+, indicating he was 117 percentage points more productive than the average hitter. Barry Bonds is the only other player since 2000 to have a wRC+ north of 210 in a season in which he tallied 150+ plate appearances (Bonds got there every year from 2001-04). Even in a relatively small sample size, it’s exceedingly difficult to do what Carpenter achieved. He certainly won’t replicate that kind of production over a full season, but teams will have to weigh this year’s incredible two months against what looked to be a rapid decline over the preceding few years.

The seemingly ageless Cruz remained one of the game’s prolific sluggers well past his 40th birthday. He was still tearing the cover off the ball for the Twins early in the 2021 season, but his production dipped in the second half following a trade to the Rays. The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a $15MM guarantee last offseason in hopes he’d be a coveted midseason trade candidate. That didn’t happen.

Cruz played 124 games for the Nats, but he hit just .234/.313/.337 with 10 homers across 507 plate appearances. It was his first below-average offensive season since 2007. His plate discipline didn’t change much, but he saw a notable drop in his hard contact rate and posted his lowest average exit velocity since Statcast began tracking in 2015. Even that personal-low 90.9 MPH exit velocity is a few ticks above average, but Cruz muted his power impact by driving the ball into the ground. More than half his batted balls were hit on the ground, an alarming sign for a lumbering slugger.

He underwent left eye surgery after the season to clear some inflammation that had impacted his vision, offering a possible explanation for his rapid drop in performance. It was an alarming season that’ll surely result in a notable paycut this winter, although he still seems likely to find a big league opportunity. Cruz is generally revered for his clubhouse leadership, and his pre-2022 track record is strong enough another team figures to take a shot on him as at least a part-time player.

Corner Outfield/DH Hybrids

Brantley has been the prototypical “professional hitter” for the past decade. That continued early this season, as he was off to an excellent .288/.370/.416 start across 277 plate appearances. He only managed five home runs, but he picked up 14 doubles and walked more often than he struck out. It was the kind of high average, high-OBP skill set to which we’ve become accustomed from Brantley. Houston gave him 35 games at DH and 29 games in left field, rotating him and Yordan Alvarez between the two positions in an effort to keep both fresh.

While Brantley continued to produce, his season was cut short by a right shoulder injury. He first landed on the injured list in late June, and after six weeks of rehab, he underwent season-ending surgery. Brantley plans to continue playing and is expected to be ready for Spring Training, but he’ll turn 36 next May. The surgery was on his non-throwing shoulder, so he’ll probably continue to see some left field work, but it stands to reason a signing team will use him heavily as a DH to manage his reps at this stage of his career.

Mancini split his time rather evenly between DH and the field, although he bounced between first base and both corner outfield positions. He’s not a great fit in the outfield but plays a solid first base. Mancini has been a slightly above-average hitter for two consecutive seasons since successfully returning from his battle with colon cancer in 2020. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a .247/.323/.412 line in a bit more than 1200 plate appearances.

While he lacks a standout tool, Mancini brings a well-rounded skillset to the table. He makes a fair amount of contact, draws walks and has decent power, although his 35-homer season from 2019 looks increasingly like an outlier. Pair that solid overall on-field package with a strong clubhouse reputation, and Mancini should be able to find a multi-year deal this offseason.

McCutchen signed an $8.5MM pact with the Brewers last offseason to split his time between DH and the corner outfield. He spent the bulk of his days at designated hitter, appearing in 82 games there compared to 53 contests in the outfield. McCutchen stayed healthy and tallied 580 plate appearances, but he had the least productive offensive showing of his big league career. He hit .237/.316/.384, roughly league average offense. He was fine but unexceptional against left and right-handed pitchers alike, a somewhat disappointing turn after he’d mashed southpaws over a three-year stint with the Phillies.

It’s likely McCutchen will be looking at a lower salary next season, and he may not find quite as much playing time as he did this year. Still, he’s a strong veteran presence who works plenty of walks and has decent power. In a more limited platoon setup, he could potentially recapture some of his earlier success against left-handed pitching.

Depth Types

Santana saw a fair bit of action at both first base and DH this past season, although the Mariners increasingly relied upon him as a bat-only player late in the year. He tallied 506 plate appearances between the Royals and Seattle, hitting at a roughly league average level with both clubs en route to a cumulative .202/.316/.376 line. Santana is among the game’s best at drawing walks and he’s tough to strike out, but he consistently posts very low batting averages on balls in play and hasn’t hit above .214 in any of the past three seasons.

Aguilar was the primary first baseman for the Brewers and Marlins for a while, a run that included a 35-homer season with Milwaukee. His time in Miami came to an end when he was released in August after hitting .236/.286/.388 across 456 plate appearances. He latched on with the Orioles for the season’s final month but didn’t do much over 16 games. He could be looking at minor league offers this winter.

An everyday third baseman with the Diamondbacks early in his career, Lamb has functioned as a bat-first depth option for a handful of teams in recent years. He’s played for six different clubs since the start of 2020, including a ’22 campaign split between the Dodgers and Mariners. Lamb hit .239/.338/.433 in 25 games with L.A. but stumbled to a .167/.265/.300 line over 16 contests in Seattle before being released. He’s capable of playing all four corner spots in addition to working as a designated hitter and should get some minor league offers after a big showing in Triple-A.

A four-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger award winner, Upton has had an accomplished 16-year big league career. He’s struggled significantly going back to the start of the 2019 season, however, and the Angels released him on the eve of Opening Day despite owing him a $28MM salary. Upton went on to sign with the Mariners and got into 17 games for Seattle, but he managed just a .125/.263/.208 line over 57 plate appearances. He declined a minor league assignment in favor of free agency in July and sat out the rest of the season. There’d presumably be a Spring Training invitation out there for Upton if he wanted to give it another go, but having banked upwards of $173MM in career earnings, he certainly won’t feel any financial pressure to keep playing.

Another player who’s potentially at the end of what has been an impressive career, Lowrie has played 14 seasons and earned an All-Star nod. He was a decent hitter for the A’s as recently as 2021, but a return to Oakland this past season didn’t pan out. The switch-hitter posted a .180/.245/.263 line through 50 games, seeing essentially all of his time at DH. The A’s released him in August.

A longtime minor leaguer, Mercedes briefly vaulted himself into the national spotlight in April 2021 with an incredible first month for the White Sox. He tailed off midway through the season, though, finishing that year with a roughly average .271/.328/.404 overall line and spending the second half of the season in Triple-A. Chicago lost him on waivers to the Giants in mid-June, and Mercedes went on to appear in 31 games with San Francisco. He hit .233/.325/.342 while playing almost exclusively DH or the corner outfield. His days as a catcher look mostly behind him, leaving him as a bat-first depth player without a real defensive home. San Francisco outrighted him off the roster in September after he went unclaimed on waivers, and he elected minor league free agency at the end of the year.

Dickerson received a big league deal with the Braves, signing for $1MM in Spring Training. He posted a .121/.194/.212 line in 13 April games before being designated for assignment and going unclaimed on waivers. Dickerson spent the rest of the year in Triple-A, putting up a slightly bel0w-average .239/.305/.425 mark across 357 plate appearances. He elected free agency at the end of the season and could get another minor league opportunity as a corner outfield/DH depth player.

Players With Club Options

Turner got off to a slow start this year, seemingly raising questions about how much he had left in the tank at age 37. He went on a tear in the second half and put those doubts to rest, concluding the season with a quality .278/.350/.438 line over 532 plate appearances. The Dodgers are as willing as any team to pay a lofty one-year salary for a productive player, and it now looks likely they’ll keep Turner around for a tenth season in L.A. He split his time almost evenly between third base and DH this past season and could assume a similar role next year.

Note: Charlie Blackmon is excluded from this list after going on record with his intention to exercise a $15MM player option.

Previous installments: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field

Latest On Royals’ Managerial Search

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The Royals are already known to have interviewed Phillies third base coach Dusty Wathan and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as they look for a replacement for manager Mike Matheny, who was dismissed at season’s end, and Anne Rogers of MLB.com adds (via Twitter) that they’ve also interviewed a trio of in-house candidates. Bench coach Pedro Grifol, third base coach Vance Wilson and Triple-A skipper Scott Thorman have each interviewed for the post as well, per Rogers.

That Grifol would interview for the now-vacant Royals position is hardly a surprise. He’s been a popular managerial candidate both in the past — interviewing with the Tigers in 2020, the Giants in 2019,  the Orioles in 2018 — and in the early stages of the 2022-23 offseason. In addition to interviewing with his current organization, Grifol has also interviewed with the Marlins and been connected to the division-rival White Sox.

Grifol, 53, has been with the Royals since the 2013 season. In addition to his time as the Royals’ bench coach, he’s also served as the catching coach and a quality control coach. A former minor league catcher himself, Grifol has also worked for the Mariners organization, where he was the team’s director of minor league operations.

Wilson, like Grifol, Matheny and longtime Royals skipper Ned Yost, is also a former catcher. The now-49-year-old Wilson spent parts of eight seasons catching for the Mets and Tigers from 1999-2006, posting a career .250/.302/.377 batting line in 1054 big league plate appearances and notching a whopping 40% caught-stealing rate behind the dish. Wilson, who has also previously served as the Royals’ bullpen coach, interviewed for the team’s vacancy following Yost’s retirement — before the job ultimately went to Matheny. Of course, that interview was conducted when since-dismissed president of baseball operations Dayton Moore was running point in Kansas City; he’s since been replaced by longtime lieutenant J.J. Picollo.

Thorman, 40, was the Braves’ first-round pick back in 2000 — when Moore was in the Atlanta front office — and appeared in parts of two seasons as a first baseman and outfielder in Atlanta. He’s now spent eight years as a minor league coach and manager in the Royals’ system, with the 2022 campaign being his first managing at the Triple-A level. He’d previously managed the Royals’ Double-A and High-A affiliates. Given his experience in the system, Thorman knows young Royals talents like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and others quite well.

Tigers Name Rob Metzler Assistant General Manager

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The Tigers announced Tuesday that they’ve hired Rays senior director of amateur scouting Rob Metzler as a vice president and assistant general manager. His hiring comes just one day after longtime assistant GM David Chadd and the organization parted ways. Detroit also dismissed former amateur scouting director Scott Pleis earlier this month.

“I hope all Tigers fans will join me in welcoming Rob and his family to our organization,” president of baseball operations Scott Harris said in a statement announcing the move. “I am thrilled to add an executive of Rob’s caliber to lead our Amateur and International Scouting departments. Rob’s track record of success with the Rays speaks for itself, and his innovative approach to talent acquisition will help us achieve one of our main goals: to acquire, develop and retain young talent in Detroit.”

Metzler, who’s spent the past 15 years in the Rays organization, previously oversaw Tampa Bay’s scouting activities in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico in advance of the amateur draft for the past seven of those campaigns. Prior to joining the Rays organization, Metzler was an intern with the Red Sox, with the Cape Cod League’s Brewster White Caps, and with Baseball Info Solutions. He earned a physics degree from Bowdoin College while playing baseball there and a master’s degree from the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

“We’re going to hit the ground running to ensure our processes of amateur scouting at both the domestic and international levels are the best they can possibly be, and search for the most comprehensive information possible to help inform our decision making,” Metzler said in a statement of his own. “I’d also like to thank the Tampa Bay Rays organization for an incredible 15 seasons, and I couldn’t be prouder of what we accomplished. The reason I’m here in Detroit is to bring that same energy, passion and innovative spirit, culminating with winning baseball on the field at Comerica Park for years to come.”

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