Our coverage of in-the-news prospects continues. A couple signings and the Sean Murphy trade give us plenty of fodder to chew upon. The Braves did an excellent job of converting unneeded role players into a premium upgrade. We’ll touch on several of the former-Braves now enjoy new homes with the Athletics and Brewers.
Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 495 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511
The Mets continue to fortify their Major League roster, building out a resiliency of depth they’ve lacked for… the entirety of my living memory. The Mets have always been a club of “just enough,” a formula that rarely works in a 162-game season with extended playoffs.
The addition of catcher Omar Narvaez to veterans James McCann and Tomas Nido seemingly gives New York the opportunity to promote Alvarez if and when they believe he is ready for a regular starting role. That could be immediately out of Spring Training or later in the season. Cynically, it’s worth noting the Mets might gain an extra season of club control by holding Alvarez back until late April. Due to his age, there’s appeal to such an approach.
The recently-turned 21-year-old had a brief cup of coffee to finish 2022. He flashed trademark power, discipline, and a tendency to whiff. At this early stage of his career, he might be a tad too disciplined – a common issue for precocious, discipline-oriented sluggers. Minor league pitchers are exploitable in ways Major Leaguers are not. A second stint in Triple-A – where he compiled 199 plate appearances with a 121 wRC+ – could help him to add a touch of targeted aggression to his approach. Otherwise, he risks carrying over-30 percent strikeout rates early in his career. The tools are there for more acceptable whiff rates. Even without that adjustment, he profiles as an above average hitter.
Then there’s the matter of defense where some of his mechanics are a tad unconventional. This is made necessary by his stocky build. He doesn’t squat as deeply into his crouch as most catchers. Without runners on base, he uses a kneeling approach. There are questions about his blocking (when kneeling) and pitch-framing (when squating). Even his arm, which is at least 60-grade, could play down if opponents correctly guess when he squats and kneels.
Kyle Muller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 134.2 IP, 10.63 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 3.41 ERA
The highest-rated prospect dealt by the Braves in the Sean Murphy trade, Muller has performed well against Triple-A competition for two straight seasons. With the Braves contending and enjoying considerable rotation depth, Muller hasn’t received many opportunities in the Majors. In total, the southpaw has made 12 appearances, 11 starts, for a total of 49 innings with a 5.14 ERA. Muller has a four-pitch repertoire. Three pitches grade out as average or better. His changeup is considered a platoon pitch. His ascent has been slowed by poor command. Although his low walk rate last season seems a positive development, none of the contacts I reached out to believe his command has truly improved. As of now, he profiles as an inefficient fifth starter or high-upside reliever.
Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 541 PA, 16 HR, 85 SB, .332/.447/.526
The other notable prospect in the Murphy swap, Ruiz had a season to remember in the minors. Neither the Padres nor Brewers gave him many opportunities in the Majors despite rostering him for a considerable chunk of the season. All told, he attempted 102 steals and succeeded 86 times (84.3%) over a total of 576 plate appearances. With new rules on the way, Ruiz could find himself among the stolen base leaders if he hits enough to merit a starting role.
That last detail is in doubt. Despite incredible minor league numbers last season, a half dozen public scouting reports all point to a reserve role. The Athletics undoubtedly hope experience will unlock at least a second-division starter upside – as they attempted with Cristian Pache last season. While he’s drawn some (very) lazy comps to Alfonso Soriano for his combination of power and speed, Ruiz’s hit tool is suspect. He’s shown an ability to work counts and avoid strikeouts, but he seems to do this at the expense of exit velocity. As such, his power plays down in games since he’s so rarely taking his best swing.
Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 510 PA, 21 HR, 20 SB, .263/.392/.496
Between the lost 2020 season and a terrible 2021 campaign, Naylor found himself entering last year with much to prove. He recovered his prospect panache by adjusting his swing mechanics and now profiles as the Guardians catcher of the future. He even made eight plate appearances for Cleveland, though he went hitless with five strikeouts. The defense-oriented Guardians opted to bring in Mike Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal to bridge the gap.
Naylor has rare speed for a backstop. The last catching prospect to display similar wheels was Daulton Varsho. The last such catcher to stick at the position as a longterm starter was J.T. Realmuto. Naylor’s defense doesn’t draw rave reviews, but it’s merely below average. A scout I questioned believed he can be an average defender. Cleveland’s preference for elite defensive catchers might lead to a position switch for trade for Naylor. I keep thinking back to Varsho, an acceptable but unexceptional catcher who turned into a gold glove center fielder almost overnight.
Jordan Westburg, 23, SS, BAL (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 622 PA, 27 HR, 12 SB, .265/.355/.496
One of my beats last year was with an Orioles blog, Baltimore Sports and Life. At the end of the season, there were two schools of thought regarding the Orioles 2023 middle infield. One group (including me), advocated for signing one of the four free agent shortstops, moving Gunnar Henderson to third base, and using Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias at second base until prospects arrived. Others were ready to hand the keys directly to Westburg (or the next guy below) and save the budget for one of the top pitchers on the market.
Baltimore GM Mike Elias opted for Door #3, choosing to ink Adam Frazier on a one-year rebound contract eerily reminiscent of the deal handed to Rougned Odor prior to last season. While Frazier won’t truly block Westburg or others, his presence will help delay the need to promote them. Nevertheless, Westburg is seemingly ready. He spent most of last season in Triple-A where he posted a 129 wRC+. As a hitter, he’s a well-rounded pile of 50-grades. He might be going down a Willy Adames-like path – not a household name but better than a typical core performer. He’s a tad stretched defensively on the left side of the infield, but he should be an above average defender at the keystone. While there’s utility risk here, it’s a premium version of it – in the same way that Chris Taylor, Tommy Edman, and Jake Cronenworth are “utility men.”
Four More
Joey Ortiz, BAL (23): One of my favorite Peripheral Prospects, Ortiz isn’t all that highly rated nationally. The Orioles love him. He’s contact-oriented and gets to more game power than you might expect based on his size. He’s trained as a utility man who profiles as a plus defensive second baseman and acceptable elsewhere. He might just beat Westburg to the Majors. Ortiz is already on the 40-man roster.
Jeter Downs, BOS (24): When the Red Sox acquired Downs in the Mookie Betts trade, he was an up-and-comer with impressive minor league stats. With Boston, he developed a serious swinging strike problem – and a commensurate 30 percent strikeout rate. Questions about his hit tool predated the trade, but this outcome feels like a total developmental failure. Now in DFA limbo, Downs looks like somebody another org might be able to salvage.
Freddy Tarnok, OAK (24): It’s been a slow burn for Tarnok who has long profiled as a future big leaguer even without flashing standout skills. He has a four-pitch repertoire, but his secondaries need further refinement. The short path to the Majors is via the bullpen where his velocity might play up. Oakland can afford to be patient.
Royber Salinas, OAK (21): The last notable prospect acquired by Oakland for Murphy, Salinas has starter caliber stuff and poor command. The instinct among evaluators is to move him to relief and watch him take off. He’s entering his Rule 5 evaluation year which could force the Athletics hand.
Appears NYM want Álvarez to get some more seasoning @ AAA. Likely for the best
In addition to solid defense behind the plate between Nido and Navarro. I think McAnn’s days may be numbered if they take on salary and move him. Mets also have Parada whom they drafted in the first round last year, though more of the offense/lack of defense variety.
I agree. They should have moved him already. Stock down
Oakland May have hit a homerun in the Sean Murphy trade. Could end up looking like the Jose Quintana or James Shields trades.
The only player Braves fans were disturbed about losing didn’t go to Oakland.
…he want to LA last offseason
Did you read the writeup above of each?
Muller is going to be a frontline starter for next generation of a competitive A’s team. Best hope to get ceiling murphy for next couple years or the trade is going to look bad. Possibly real bad.
I hope that happens, but you could also watch Contreras – whom OAK chose to flip to MIL for Ruiz – find stardom a lot sooner than any of the other 3. I hope you can unlock the lack of control that Muller has.
Really hope this offseason doesn’t come back to bite the O’s in the butt. You had the chance to land Trea Turner, but passed on it for hopefully a controllable all star. We’ll see how it pays off
SS isn’t a need for the Orioles, why would they spend $300 million dollars on one?
Who is there? My point is you’re relying on unproven prospects, when you can sign a proven big leaguer and trade the unproven player to get the cheap pitcher you need later
A chance to land turner ? Come back to reality buddy !
O’s best start locking up their own talent long term. Ink mullins to whatever it takes and sign the hurt pitcher at a low point.
@Big whiffa, liked “ink Mullins”. Amen to that brother! Cerebral defender. His first step is first rate. Lock him up!
My point is they weren’t even in the mix. And yeah Mullins is the guy to lock up. Atta boy buddy
The Alfonso Soriano comps for Esteury Ruiz are largely because his swing looks VERY similar to a smaller Alfonso Soriano. It’s difficult not to see it once you hear it. So most scouting reports say something like “he has power and speed and his swing looks Alfonso Soriano-like, we’re not saying he’ll have his production though.”
So the actual player comp may be lazy, but the swing comp is accurate.
What’s up with Ronny Mauricio Mets fans? Complete bust, or what? He’s on so many top prospect list, what am I missing?
OBP is way too low. He was hot in the winter league recently, but not sure it’s enough to offset never getting on base. Seems to lack a position too.
Personally, I’m not very high on him and if they’re going to trade any prospect, I hope it’s Mauricio.
lack of plate discipline… profiles a lot like Amed Rosario in that regard, but way more power. But I’m not sure if he could sniff a 300 OBP in the majors. The power is developing as hoped, and he’s fast (not an efficient base stealer). As much as they don’t want to like him, his power/speed combo is hard to ignore. Guessing his most extreme upside could be Albies, but wouldn’t count on it.
sure he has a lack of discipline but his power has been untapped. He is literally destroying the baseball in Winter Leagues right now while hitting over .300. He needs to learn to walk a little more for sure – think Javy Baez here with less glove. Power to hit 30 bombs a year could offset the walks, especially if he can hit .275+. Not a gold glover, but not going to lose you a lot of games on defense either. I think he is still a very high end prospect at age 22.
Mauricio’s stock is back up with his mashing in the Winter Leagues. Also .345 OBP. He’s starting to figure it out. I think he could end up at third for Mets next season with Baty moving to LF. replacing Canha. Mets should let Mauricio play a number of positions this season and figure where they want him playing in majors. I think Baty should also begin the season in AAA for more seasoning. He was called up too soon last season because needed but with barely any AAA experience
Hoping you’re both right that his stock is on the rise again around baseball. I think it should be because the power is really developing and he has the athleticism.
“Literally destroying the baseball…” ?
Please look up “literally”.
You are a sad lol guy huh? Need a nap?
Alvarez has the type of bat that probably sets him apart from just lumping him in as a catcher. Hits for a strong average on top of power that is rarely seen at any position at his age, let alone catcher. The addition of Navarez is likely to mentor him. Bat realistically should be considered as a right hand DH day one. He hits 450 foot bombs – not wall scrapers. At age 20 he got a cup of coffee and did not look a bit phased by it or overmatched in the least. His initial taste at AAA had poor results, but he made adjustments and forced his way to a call up. I have zero doubts he will hit in the bigs, and with a DH position in the NL and two very solid catchers in place in Navarez and Nido (assuming McCann is headed out), he should play plenty of games for the Mets this year. Save for May if you dare, but Alvarez taking the DH spots currently in line for Darrin Ruf would be the smart play.
Alvarez: disciplined bat speed! Use him, Epps, use him.
Alvarez needs to shore up his defense in AAA. Playing him the majors from the get-go this season at DH stumps his needed catching development. That’s bad move by the team if they do that.
Alvarez can literally never catch a single inning and be an amazing add. Piazza was awful behind the plate. No, I don’t want to say he will hit like that although he has the tools but he is already a better backstop.
” …Naylor’s defense doesn’t draw rave reviews,… ”
Well, not everyone has Peter O’Brien’s defensive chops.
Nice write up, very informative
“Cynically, it’s worth noting the Mets might gain an extra season of club control by holding Alvarez back until late April.”
I thought this went out the window when they called him up at the end of last season?
He wasn’t up long enough to activate that clock
Ah, got it. Thanks.
The strong wording of “total developmental failure,” in relation to Downs, is both noted & appreciated – agreed.
Downs had bust wrote all over him he had one good season bc he was in a hitter friendly minor league. Plus he’s one of a long line of over hyped dodgers prospects.
What a complete miss by Boston ! It didn’t really shock me at the time but there was several quality prospects in lower levels of dodgers organization at that time that have now developed. So how does an organization like the Red Sox miss on those other guys to take downs !?
Connor Norby is such a fantasy darling because of his bat but seems to get overlooked in real-life discussions of the O’s infield. Any hope for him at all?
Definitely, but he is likely limited to 2B or LF, and will probably be a bit below average defensively at best. The bat seems to be pretty legit though.
Absolutely, he’s just not quite at the same stage of readiness as Westburg and Ortiz. Those two could plug in immediately. Norby still has a little more to prove (which he could do in Spring Training or by mid-2023).
Quite a log jam of infield talent for the Os.
I think the Frazier signing is telling. FO wouldn’t pull the trigger on a major SP FA signing (length of terms chased/scared ’em off?).
So going the trade route. Different trade partners have different needs. Some want prospects, others proven talent. Some want infield, others outfield. Elias has a little bit of everything to offer (outside of pitching). Whomever gets moved is where Frazier plugs in defensively.
Esteury Ruiz’s career SLG in the minors: .457
Williams Contreras’ career SLG in the minors: .413
And that SLG doesn’t factor in all the “single and steal second” doubles Ruiz gets.
Os are gonna have to use these prospects for high end pitching. Should have used that 18 they gave Frazier and Gibson towards a pitcher and added a pitcher though trade
I like the Gibson move for them. He’s going to look good in that park and with a tight infield defense. They made Jordan Lyles look good last season, and Gibby’s a better version of Lyles.
Unless they have some report about Frazier being a fantastic mentor, I don’t really get that move. I mean, I get the process behind the decision, but I think they misevaluated if their answer is “we need a high-floor filler.”
With Jeter Downs…Bloom really screwed the pooch on that Betts trade
Whoever wrote this about Alvarez and the Mets needs therapy.
Spot on. It’s like a fan looking for a reason to hate on a guy. That bat is going to sparkle day one.
Whoever thinks he’s not going to be another over-aggressive whiff king needs eyeglasses.
Opinions are like….. you. Grow up child. Another jealous lout
Your assessment of Alvarez is a joke. You realize he’s the #1 prospect in all of baseball, right? Who’s your team?
I know this is going to sound weird, did this article run a month ago and just get some updates? I swear I read over half of it before and most of the comments verbatim. Maybe I am just going crazy
The article on at least Alvarez was sorely lacking and didn’t understand why he ought to start the season in the minors. It’s for his defense, not offense while MLBTR was rambling on incoherently on his offense.
It’s very possible you’re reading some familiar descriptions in that article because some of it may have been used prior when writing about some players in it then who are in the current one.
LongTimeFan1;
I’m wondering about all these comments on here using hip lingo……
Have these people even seen these guys they’re talking about play for any length of time?
I haven’t.
It sure seems like someone reads something, writes their spin, the next person comes on, read something somewhere else., puts on their spin…not sure anyone has actually seen them play.
I watch a lot of MLB games. Players – especially young players – are constantly changing until they fall into patterns after being in most situations a player can be in….and even then they modify as coaches are constantly working with them. The game has always been about adjustments. Always will be.
These young guys have no idea about the tricks ML players will use on them until they get up to the major leagues and cycle through playing against most opposing teams. That’s why the step from AAA to the major leagues is the most difficult and unpredictable. Also why what Michael Harris II did this year coming up from AA is so remarkable…offense, defense, and baserunning.
I definitely have watched Alvarez. Having the MLB plan, they played a number of Minor League games where I was able to see him play quite a bit. He also made the majors for a cup. So my observation was stated above and not some hip language. The author, I would suggest, did more of the read and spin here. Highlight reels are readily available for top guys. There really is no excuse to have not seen them other than choosing not to.