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Archives for February 2023

Poll: Will The Mariners Trade Chris Flexen?

By Steve Adams | February 8, 2023 at 9:49pm CDT

Early in the offseason, it looked as though there was a good chance the Mariners would move one of their two candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. The quartet of Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby create a standout set of options in slots one through four, and Seattle has a pair of solid back-of-the-rotation options in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Behind that duo, prospects like Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Taylor Dollard have all reached Double-A and enjoyed success there, placing them within reasonable proximity of MLB readiness. Miller, in particular, cracked the back of some top-100 lists this year, landing 74th on Kiley McDaniel’s list at ESPN, 98th at MLB.com and 100th at Baseball America.

It’s a strong collection of depth, and the presence of Miller, Hancock and Dollard seemed like it could be enough to sway the Mariners to move one of Flexen or Gonzales. Flexen, as a free agent next offseason* with a palatable $8MM salary — compared to the $18.5MM still owed to Gonzales through 2024 — seemed to be the likeliest candidate. That’s true not only from an on-paper standpoint, but also when considering that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto plainly acknowledged in November that he’d been receiving trade interest in Flexen at the annual general managers’ meetings.

(*=There seems to be some continued confusion regarding this, as Flexen won’t have six years of Major League service time after the season, but MLBTR has confirmed that he will become a free agent next winter, as is the case with the vast majority of KBO/NPB signees whose free agent contracts expire.)

The Mariners, however, were never going to give Flexen away just to shed his salary, and the fact that he remains with the club is a clear indicator that another club has yet to put forth an offer Dipoto & Co. felt was commensurate with Flexen’s value. The extent of that value is subjective, but Flexen would be a clear upgrade to the back of several teams’ rotations.

Since returning from a successful one-year stint in the Korea Baseball Organization, he’s pitched to a 3.66 ERA in 317 2/3 innings. Granted, his 92.4 mph average fastball and 16.5% strikeout rate are below average, but Flexen also has sharp command (6.8% walk rate). He keeps lefties in check with the help of an above-average changeup and has generally done a good job keeping the ball in the yard since his MLB return. Flexen has benefited slightly from a pitcher-friendly home environment, but his numbers away from T-Mobile Park (3.75 ERA, 1.12 HR/9) are only slightly worse than those compiled when pitching at home in Seattle (3.57 ERA, 0.91 HR/9).

Because Flexen’s numbers were superior to those of Gonzales across the board, some argued that Gonzales should be the odd man out, despite his relatively lengthy tenure with the club. Gonzales is nearly three years older, however, has more than double the money remaining on his contract. Flexen’s trade value was and is higher, and while he alone wouldn’t have fetched a substantial upgrade to the Seattle lineup, he could certainly have been included in a package that worked toward that endgame.

Now, however, the majority of the teams around the game have exhausted the bulk of their offseason budget and filled the rotation vacancies that existed early in the winter. That ostensibly points toward both Flexen and Gonzales beginning the year with Seattle, perhaps with one in a long relief role. It’s always possible that a spring injury elsewhere on the staff would necessitate a scenario wherein both Flexen and Gonzales are part of the Opening Day rotation.

That said, the injury component still looms as a possibility for other clubs. Even teams that right now believe their rotations to be full could run into trouble over the next 50 days. Nary a spring training goes by without multiple pitchers going down to major injury; situations like the one that popped up today in Milwaukee — where Aaron Ashby is being slowed by shoulder fatigue — are commonplace this time of year. As the exhibition season wears on, more severe injuries that threaten long chunks (or the entirety) of an established pitcher’s season will arise. Many teams are in positions like the Mariners, where they have the depth to withstand such a hit. Others, however, are already looking at questionable depth beyond their top few names (e.g. White Sox, Blue Jays, Padres — to varying extents).

Injuries are an inevitability this time of year, and the Mariners’ depth will likely be attractive to other clubs as health troubles throughout the league arise. Seattle may prefer to stockpile that depth, but moving Flexen would likely free up some resources to expand the budget for in-season acquisitions. It’s also possible that they take on some salary to address another need on the big league roster by way of the Flexen trade itself.

For what it’s worth, Corey Brock of The Athletic speculated in his latest mailbag that the Mariners will ultimately find a deal for Flexen during spring training when an injury on another club creates a need, though it’s just as possible that said injury occurs on Seattle’s staff and takes Flexen out of the trade equation entirely.

Let’s put this one up to a vote for MLBTR readers to weigh in (link to poll)…

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MLBTR Polls Seattle Mariners Chris Flexen Marco Gonzales

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Arte Moreno Reiterates Angels’ Desire To Keep Shohei Ohtani Past 2023 Season

By Anthony Franco | February 8, 2023 at 9:19pm CDT

Shohei Ohtani’s long-term future has been a marquee storyline in the game for the past couple years. He’s now a season away from the open market, where he presently seems on track for a record-setting contract. There’s already been plenty of speculation among rival fanbases and presumably within other front offices about the possibility of Ohtani signing elsewhere after six seasons with the Angels.

Halos’ brass has unsurprisingly maintained on numerous occasions they’re hopeful of retaining the two-way superstar for the long haul. Owner Arte Moreno reiterated that goal in a recent interview with Jon Heyman of the New York Post. “I’d like to keep Ohtani. He’s one of a kind. He’s a great person,” the Angels owner told Heyman. “He’s obviously one of the most popular baseball players in the world, and he’s an international star. He’s a great teammate. He works hard. He’s a funny guy, and he has a really good rapport with fans.”

None of that registers as any kind of surprise, of course. Anaheim general manager Perry Minasian made similar comments last week, telling reporters the “whole organization would like nothing more than to see him here for a long, long time” and calling the 2021 AL MVP “somebody that we can envision here for a long, long time” (link via Associated Press).

Neither Moreno nor Minasian handicapped their odds of getting a deal done, nor did they specify whether there any plans for extension talks with Ohtani’s representatives at CAA this spring. Both expressed general optimism about the Angels’ chances of retaining him, with Moreno telling Heyman “we have as good a chance as anybody” at signing Ohtani to a long-term deal.

As recently as last month, it didn’t appear Moreno would be concerned about Ohtani’s long-term future in Anaheim. He’d been exploring a sale of the franchise dating back at least to last summer before pulling the team off the market in the middle of January. Sam Blum of the Athletic was among those to report in the aftermath of the decision that bids on the franchise were expected to top $2.5 billion but Moreno had a change of heart about relinquishing the franchise.

That led to some questions amongst the fanbase about whether the Angels’ chances of re-signing Ohtani took a hit with Moreno retaining control. The Angels have had seven straight below-average records and haven’t made the playoffs in eight years. Moreno admitted to Heyman “we have to win, we have to do a better job on the field,” though both he and Minasian have pointed out the Halos anually rank among the league’s top ten in spending.

Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates the Angels will open the 2023 campaign with the league’s 7th-highest payroll. They’re behind the Mets, Yankees, Padres, Phillies, Dodgers and Blue Jays by that estimate, and a handful of those big-market behemoths would surely relish the opportunity to make a run at Ohtani in free agency.

Cot’s projects the Angels for around $119MM in guaranteed commitments for 2024, headlined by the megadeals for Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Trout is under contract through 2030, while Rendon is signed through 2026. Tyler Anderson and David Fletcher are the only other players with deals past the ’24 campaign, with the guaranteed portion of both contracts wrapping up in 2025.

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Los Angeles Angels Shohei Ohtani

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The Volatile Red Sox Rotation

By Darragh McDonald | February 8, 2023 at 7:38pm CDT

The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.

That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.

Chris Sale

From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?

James Paxton

Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.

The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?

Corey Kluber

Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.

But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.

Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.

Nick Pivetta

Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.

However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.

The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?

Tanner Houck

Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.

The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.

Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski

These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.

Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy

These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.

_____

As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.

It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.

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Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals Brandon Walter Brayan Bello Bryan Mata Chris Murphy Chris Sale Corey Kluber Garrett Whitlock James Paxton Josh Winckowski Kutter Crawford Nick Pivetta Tanner Houck

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Padres Sign Tim Lopes, Rangel Ravelo To Minor League Deals

By Darragh McDonald | February 8, 2023 at 5:49pm CDT

The Padres today announced a list of players that will be in camp as non-roster invitees, with utility players Tim Lopes and Rangel Ravelo among them, indicating that they have been signed to minor league deals.

Lopes, 29 in June, got into 94 major league games over the 2019-2021 period with the Mariners and Brewers. In that time, he hit .246/.310/.352 for a wRC+ of 85. Though that offensive production was 15% below league average, he contributed in other ways by stealing 11 bases and taking the field at second, third and the infield corners. He was outrighted by Milwaukee after 2021 and elected free agency, signing a minor league deal with the Rockies for 2022. He got into 73 games on the farm for them and hit .276/.339/.476 for a wRC+ of 100. He also stole 11 bases and suited up at the three infield position to the left of first base as well as the outfield corners.

Ravelo, 31 in April, got a taste of the majors with the Cardinals in 2019 and 2020. He hit .189/.250/.351 in a small sample of 42 games while playing first base and the outfield corners and was non-tendered at the end of the latter campaign. He signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers for 2021 and crushed it in his first 26 Triple-A games, producing a batting line of .407/.504/.758. He then signed with the NPB’s Orix Buffaloes but only got into two games that year. In 2022, he got into 24 contests with the Buffaloes but hit just .138/.296/.207. More recently, he’s been playing for the Cardenales de Lara of the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League, hitting .324/.441/.514 in 32 games.

Both players will give the Padres a little bit of extra non-roster depth. Lopes has a bit more positional versatility but Ravelo has occasionally impressed a bit more at the plate. The Padres have a fairly stacked lineup but their bench might feature some relatively inexperienced options in Brandon Dixon, José Azocar and Matthew Batten. Injuries are also inevitable and depth pieces will surely be required throughout the season. If either player cracks the roster at any point, they each have between one and two years of service time, meaning they could be affordably retained for the foreseeable future. Lopes also has a couple of option years, though Ravelo has exhausted his.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Rangel Ravelo Tim Lopes

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | February 8, 2023 at 4:54pm CDT

Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.

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MLBTR Chats

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Latest On Nick Senzel’s Injury Rehab

By Anthony Franco | February 8, 2023 at 4:35pm CDT

Nick Senzel saw his 2022 season cut a little short after fracturing a toe in his left foot in September. The injury cost him the final couple weeks of the year and lingered into the offseason, as it didn’t heal as anticipated. Senzel underwent surgery to correct the issue in the middle of November. Initial reports suggested that wasn’t expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training, though it’s not clear whether that’s still the case.

Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that Senzel has spent most of the offseason in a walking boot and suggests it’s now undermined when he’ll be a full-go for exhibition action. There’s still no indication the start of the regular season is in jeopardy. Nevertheless, it’s certainly not an ideal lead-up to what’s shaping up to be a pivotal year for the 27-year-old.

Senzel was the second overall pick in the 2016 draft. He predictably appeared among the game’s top prospect rankings in the intervening two years before making his MLB debut in 2019. Regarded by many evaluators as an advanced hitter who could play above-average defense at second or third base, Senzel has yet to tap into that upside at the major league level.

He’s posted below-average offensive numbers in all four of his MLB seasons, combining for a career line of .240/.303/.360 in a little more than 1000 plate appearances. Senzel also quickly moved off the infield and has spent the vast majority of his innings in center field. Statcast has generally rated him as an average defender there; Defensive Runs Saved, on the other hand, has panned his outfield work.

Regardless of his defensive acumen, Senzel will need to do more at the plate if he’s to continue garnering everyday playing time. The Reds seem prepared to give him that opportunity. Manager David Bell told reporters last month he’s likely to get the first crack in center field (Nightengale link). Cincinnati brass has expressed some openness to moving him around the diamond a little more during the upcoming season, though the Reds have a number of interesting infielders who are at or nearing the MLB level. The outfield outlook is less certain, with players like Nick Solak, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild and Michael Siani joining Senzel on the 40-man roster.

It looks like a potential make-or-break season for Senzel, who has now surpassed three years of MLB service time. He and the club settled on a $1.95MM salary to avoid arbitration this winter. He’ll be eligible for that process twice more before reaching free agency after the 2025 season. That gives the Reds a bit of long-term contractual upside if he takes the step forward the organization has long envisioned, though another below-average showing would likely make him a non-tender candidate next winter.

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Cincinnati Reds Nick Senzel

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Jared Walsh Provides Update On Surgery Rehabilitation

By Darragh McDonald | February 8, 2023 at 3:42pm CDT

Jared Walsh underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome in September and provided an update on his recovery in an appearance of MLB Network Radio (Twitter link with audio).

“I feel great,” Walsh said. “I don’t know if I’m exactly 100% but I think if we– if Spring Training started today, I would be fine to go out, do every drill, be on the field, making throws and all that.” Walsh then relays that his surgeon has informed him that his strength will continue growing for the next 6-8 months and even beyond. “I feel great but hopefully I can get even a little bit better.”

The surgery is somewhat common for pitchers, but with a mixed track record. Merrill Kelly underwent the procedure in 2020 but has returned to health and made 60 solid starts over the past two years. On the other hand, Stephen Strasburg has been severely hampered by the issue over the past few years. He underwent surgery in July of 2021 and returned to the mound a year later, but made just one start in 2022. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

On the position player side of things, the surgery is more rare. Walsh and Mike Zunino are the two most recent players to go under the knife, with Zunino getting the procedure in July of last year. He was signed by the Guardians for 2o23 and the two players will make an interesting test case on the viability of rehabilitating from the disorder.

Both players had excellent campaigns in 2021 before the effects of the ailment seemingly dragged their respective performances down in 2022. Zunino launched 33 home runs in 2021 and hit .216/.301/.559 for a wRC+ of 134. Last year, his output felt to a dismal .148/.195/.304 line and 43 wRC+. Walsh hit 29 homers two years ago and slashed .277/.340/.509 for a 126 wRC+, but fell to .215/.269/.374 last year and a 78 wRC+.

For the Angels, it would serve as a tremendous boost if Walsh could return with no ill effects and put that 2022 season behind him. For many years now, they’ve struggled to string victories together despite the presence of superstars like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Lack of depth and injuries like Walsh suffered last year have repeatedly undermined the strong performances at the top of their roster.

It seems the club has made more of a concerted effort to protect against those pitfalls this year, bolstering the roster with various supporting players who can guard against someone requiring a significant absence. The club added a couple of multi-position players by signing free agent Brandon Drury and acquiring Gio Urshela. Should Walsh miss any more time or struggle to get back on track, Drury would likely be first in line for extended time covering first base, with Jake Lamb also in the organization on a minor league deal. Though if Walsh is healthy, it would free Drury up to strengthen the club’s depth in the outfield corners or other infield positions.

The path ahead is fairly uncertain since there are few comparables for the road that Walsh is currently on, though the fact that he’s expressing such optimism is a good sign for now. Spring workouts begin next week and Opening Day is less than two months away.

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Los Angeles Angels Jared Walsh

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Tigers, DJ Peters Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | February 8, 2023 at 1:07pm CDT

The Tigers agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder DJ Peters, as first indicated on the transaction log at MiLB.com. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Toledo.

The 27-year-old Peters ranked among the Dodgers’ top 20 prospects at Baseball America from 2018-21, reaching the big leagues as a 25-year-old during the ’21 season but struggling in limited opportunities. Peters logged just 34 plate appearances with the Dodgers before being designated for assignment after they acquired Danny Duffy, at which point the Rangers claimed him off waivers.

While the Dodgers’ outfield was generally full at the time of that transaction, the Rangers had far more opportunity. Peters appeared in 52 games and tallied 206 plate appearances down the stretch in Texas, showing impressive power but also extremely shaky plate discipline. Overall, between the two clubs, Peters hit .197/.242/.422 with 13 home runs, nine doubles, a triple, a pair of steals, and 34.2% strikeout rate against a 5% walk rate in 240 plate appearances.

The Rangers retained Peters’ rights into the offseason but granted him his release in order to pursue an opportunity with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization. Peters improved on his K-BB profile in the KBO, fanning at a reduced 21.8% clip against a more palatable 7.3% walk rate. However, his .228/.299/.402 batting line in 354 trips to the plate still resulted in him being waived this past July.

Peters has long been touted for his above-average speed, huge raw power and the defensive tools needed to play center field, but he’s yet to break through in the game’s upper levels. He’s a career .240/.343/.415 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons, but he’s also punched out in 30.2% of his 540 plate appearances at that level. Unlike his brief stints in the Majors and in the KBO, Peters does have a strong 11% walk rate in Triple-A, at least.

It’s an intriguing set of tools overall, particularly for a Tigers club with little certainty in the outfield (as recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco). Former top prospect Riley Greene will presumably return to his role as the everyday center fielder, and he’ll be joined in the outfield by veteran Austin Meadows, who struggled at the plate in 2022 before missing time due to vertigo-like symptoms, a pair of Achilles injuries and eventually an agreed-upon absence with the team that allowed him to focus on his mental health, which he candidly disclosed to fans via social media.

The other outfield reps will be divided up among players like Akil Baddoo, Kerry Carpenter and trade acquisition Matt Vierling. Outfield prospect Parker Meadows — Austin’s younger brother — is also on Detroit’s 40-man roster, and they’ll have veteran speedster Jonathan Davis and well-regarded prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy (acquired from the Braves in exchange for Joe Jimenez) in camp as non-roster invitees. It’s feasible that the right-handed-hitting Peters could eventually play his way into that mix, especially when considering that each of Greene, Baddoo, Carpenter and both Meadows brothers bat from the left side of the plate.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions DJ Peters

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Cardinals Acquire Anthony Misiewicz, Designate James Naile

By Darragh McDonald | February 8, 2023 at 1:05pm CDT

The Cardinals announced that they have acquired left-hander Anthony Misiewicz from the Royals in exchange for cash considerations. The Royals had designated him for assignment recently when Zack Greinke’s signing was made official. The create room on their 40-man roster, the Cardinals designated right-hander James Naile for assignment.

Misiewicz, 28, was drafted by the Mariners and broke into the majors with them in 2020. He struck out 30.1% of batters faced in that debut but an elevated .367 batting average on balls in play nudged his ERA up to 4.05. That strikeout rate was higher than anything he had done in the minors and now seems to have been a small sample blip. In the past two seasons, which included getting dealt to the Royals at last year’s deadline, he’s struck out 22.4% of batters faced but walked just 7%, as he posted a 4.52 ERA over 98 appearances.

It’s possible that Misiewicz deserved better than that ERA would indicate. His .321 batting average on balls in play and 70% strand rate over the past couple of years are each a bit on the unfortunate side of average. ERA estimators like his 3.88 FIP and 3.77 SIERA paint a bit of a nicer picture. Like most southpaws, he’s better against left-handed hitters. For his career, he’s held them to a .250/.288/.361 line while righties have hit .283/.348/.480 against him.

The Cardinals figure to have Génesis Cabrera as their primary left-handed option out of their bullpen, with other options on the 40-man roster including Packy Naughton, JoJo Romero and Zack Thompson. All of those players, including Misiewicz, have options and may end up shuttling between Triple-A and the majors as the season progresses unless one of them can separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

As for Naile, this is a very ill-timed transaction for him as today is his 30th birthday. After spending many years in Oakland’s farm system, he reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Cards last year. He pitched well enough to crack the club’s roster in June, eventually posting an ERA of 5.00 over nine MLB innings. In 73 1/3 frames at Triple-A, he had a 3.31 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 53.4% ground ball rate. That latter number is his best selling point as he’s run kept the ball on the ground all throughout his minor league career.

The Cards will now have one week to trade Naile or pass him through waivers. He still has a couple of option years and hardly any service time, which could intrigue clubs looking for some extra pitching depth. Roster spots are at a premium at this time of year but flexibility is about to go up with the return of the 60-day injured list next week.

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Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals Transactions Anthony Misiewicz James Naile

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The Phillies’ Fifth Starter Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | February 8, 2023 at 11:42am CDT

The Phillies had a bit of shuffling in the middle of their rotation this offseason. Each of Zach Eflin, Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson went elsewhere in free agency. Philadelphia partially backfilled the starting staff by bringing Taijuan Walker aboard, but they focused the rest of their offseason attention on installing Trea Turner atop the lineup and stockpiling bullpen help.

Philadelphia has one of baseball’s best one-two punch atop the rotation in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Walker steps into the third or fourth role, pairing with southpaw Ranger Suárez in the middle. Losing Eflin and Gibson thins out the depth at the back end, leaving the Phils to rely on someone without much starting experience at the big league level in the #5 role.

Turning to those possibilities:

Some MLB Rotation Work

Bailey Falter

Falter, a 25-year-old lefty, made 16 starts out of 20 outings for the Phils last year. That came on the heels of a rookie campaign in which he was used almost exclusively out of the bullpen and posted a 5.61 ERA. Falter had a better run prevention mark last season, allowing just 3.86 earned runs per nine innings. Falter struck out a roughly average 21.2% of opponents and kept his walks to a sparkling 4.9% clip last season. His ground-ball percentage dropped from 36.1% as a rookie to 31.7%, though, and he surrendered home runs at a higher than average rate (1.71 per nine innings).

The former fifth-round pick has shown excellent control throughout his time in the minor leagues. He missed bats on a decent 11% of his MLB offerings last season. His strikeout and walk profile fits fine at the back of a contending rotation, though his fly-ball oriented approach could give him trouble in a very hitter-friendly home park. Falter doesn’t throw hard and gives up a fair amount of hard contact. That’s been a particular issue with right-handed hitters, who have a .266/.313/.486 line against him in his MLB career.

Cristopher Sánchez

Sánchez, 26, only has four big league starts to his name. He’s come out of the bullpen 18 times at the MLB level and has logged 52 2/3 innings over the last two seasons. He owns a 5.47 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk marks (20.3% and 10.2%, respectively). On the plus side, he’s racked up grounders on a massive 56.4% of batted balls.

The 6’1″ hurler has spent the bulk of the last two years starting games for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He struggled with walks en route to a 4.68 ERA there in 2021 but had a much more productive showing last season. Over 57 1/3 innings spanning 15 appearances, the Dominican-born southpaw posted a 3.14 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout percentage, 8.4% walk rate and eye-opening 62% grounder percentage. While Sánchez hasn’t had much MLB success to date, he’s in the back of the rotation and/or long relief mix thanks to his quality Triple-A showing.

Top Prospects

Andrew Painter

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, Painter ranks among the sport’s top 15 minor league talents at Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic. Armed with an upper-90s fastball, the 6’7″ righty also draws praise from evaluators for a pair of impressive breaking pitches in his slider and curveball. His changeup is viewed as a little behind the rest of his power arsenal but a promising fourth pitch in its own right.

The 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft out of a Florida high school, he traversed three minor league levels last season. In a year split between Low-A, High-A and Double-A, he threw 103 2/3 innings of 1.56 ERA ball, striking out a laughable 38.7% of opponents with just a 6.2% walk rate.

It’s hard to draw up a better first full pro season. Still, Painter won’t turn 20 until April, and he has just five late-season starts in Double-A and zero experience at the top minor league level. Carrying him on the MLB roster from day one would be a risk, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said on a few occasions this offseason that it’s not out of the question (link via Andy Jasner of Sports Illustrated).

Mick Abel

Abel was Philadelphia’s first-round selection the year before Painter. Also a high school righty, he’s likewise developed into one of the sport’s more talented young arms. Abel split last season between High-A and Double-A, also making just five starts at the latter level. He combined for a 3.90 ERA across 108 1/3 frames with a 27.6% strikeout rate but a 10.6% walk percentage. He’s a consensus top-100 talent but below Painter in the prospect hierarchy, with a little less velocity and a greater need to refine his control. Abel’s a very good prospect and could potentially put himself in the MLB mix midseason, but right now it doesn’t seem like he’ll get immediate consideration for an Opening Day rotation role. Of course, a standout spring performance could potentially change that.

Griff McGarry

McGarry, a Virginia product, was a fifth-round draftee in 2021. As a college player, he’s older than Painter and Abel. He spent most of the 2022 season as a starter at High-A and Double-A as well but got eight late-season relief outings at Lehigh Valley. McGarry combined for 87 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball in his first full professional season. He punched out an enormous 35.7% of opponents but walked batters at a 14.6% clip. McGarry has had high-octane stuff but inconsistent control dating back to his time in college. He’s a well-regarded prospect in his own right and looks like a great find for the Phils in the fifth round, though he’d need a dramatic improvement in his strike-throwing to factor into the MLB rotation this year. A midseason bullpen debut might be more likely.

Minor League Depth

Michael Plassmeyer

Acquired in a minor league trade that sent catcher Austin Wynns to the Giants last summer, Plassmeyer cracked the 40-man roster in August. He’d been hit hard in Triple-A with San Francisco but seemed to turn the corner in the Philadelphia organization. Over 16 starts for Lehigh Valley, the former fourth-round draftee posted a 2.41 ERA across 82 innings. He had some strand rate and BABIP help but also struck out 24.8% of opponents against a 7% walk rate. That’s enough to get Plassmeyer on the MLB radar, but he’d struggled significantly with walks and home runs on the road to a 7.38 ERA over 11 appearances with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate prior to the trade.

James McArthur

McArthur made 13 starts for Double-A Reading last season before suffering a stress reaction in his throwing elbow. He struck out a quarter of opponents at that level but issued walks at a higher than average 10% clip. Over 57 innings, he managed a 5.05 ERA in a hitter-friendly home environment. McArthur’s 26 and has still yet to reach Triple-A. That he’s still holding a 40-man roster spot suggests the Phils still like his upside, though he’d presumably need to earn an MLB look with a strong showing in Lehigh Valley and might fit better in the bullpen regardless.

———————–

The Phillies figure to bring a few more arms to camp as non-roster Spring Training invitees. Philadelphia added Kyle Hart on a minor league deal this afternoon, while Hans Crouse remains in the organization after clearing outright waivers last November. It’s possible the front office looks for another starter with some MLB experience who’s willing to accept an NRI.

Unless the Phils surprisingly add Michael Wacha or pivot to the trade market, however, it’s unlikely anyone they bring in at this point would get an immediate MLB rotation job. The organization looks prepared to put a lot of faith in their highly-touted prospects, especially Painter. Whether that’ll be the case from day one is to be determined, with Falter and Sánchez in position to vie for key roles if the Phils determine more minor league time is necessary for their vaunted young arms.

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Philadelphia Phillies Andrew Painter Bailey Falter Cristopher Sanchez Griff McGarry James McArthur Michael Plassmeyer Mick Abel

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