Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
Archives for April 2023
The Marlins Are Still Facing Questions In Their Outfield
The Marlins came into 2023 with a fairly unsettled outfield mix, despite not making any external additions. The club planned to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. off second base in order to take over the center field job that they had been trying to fill for years. Veterans Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García were both coming off disappointing seasons, while a batch of younger player were still looking to establish themselves at the major league level.
Almost one month into the season, the Fish are swimming at a decent pace so far. They are currently 12-12, though with a -37 run differential that suggests they might be a bit lucky to be at that level. Then again, it’s still early and they’ve had a challenging schedule, with all of their games coming against teams that came into the season as surefire contenders or borderline ones (Seven against the Mets, three each against the Twins, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants and Guardians, two against Atlanta).
How are their outfielders faring so far? Let’s take a quick look at each one.
Chisholm hit .254/.325/.535 in 60 games last year for a wRC+ of 139 before a stress fracture in his back put him on the shelf. He perhaps could have returned late in the year, but the club was out of contention and shut him down, at which point Chisholm underwent surgery on a torn meniscus that he had been playing through.
Whether it’s due to the long layoff, the injuries or the position change, he hasn’t gotten into a groove at the plate yet this year. He’s currently hitting .218/.269/.391 for a wRC+ of 81. He’s struck out in 38.3% of his plate appearances thus far, a jump of more than 10 percentage points from his 27.4% rate last year.
As for that position change, the early reviews are mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -1 so far, with Ultimate Zone Rating at -1.1. On the other hand, Outs Above Average has him at roughly par, 56th percentile. His outfielder jump is in the 84th percentile and his sprint speed is in the 92nd. Some growing pains were surely to be expected since he’s never played the position before, so hopefully these numbers will all trend in a positive direction over time.
Soler is perhaps the most mercurial player in the league, having spent the past few years oscillating between being one of the most feared sluggers on the planet and looking lost at the plate. Last year, his first with the Marlins, was a downswing. He struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances and hit just .207/.295/.400 for a wRC+ of 98, missing significant time due to back spasms. He could have opted out of his contract but chose not to, likely a wise decision with that platform.
Here in 2023, he’s back on another one of his patented heaters. He’s hit five home runs already and has dropped his strikeout rate to a more manageable 23.6%. His .253/.337/.544 line amounts to a 137 wRC+. He’s largely served as the designated hitter but has been given five starts in right.
The torrid stretch for Soler is good for the Marlins in the short-term, but the long-term may be different. Soler has another opt-out opportunity after this season and would likely take it if he can maintain anything close to this pace, as he’d be walking away from just one year and $9MM.
García has a similarly inconsistent track record to Soler, posting above-average wRC+ figures in 2017, 2019 and 2021 but dipping below average in the following year each time. Last year was an especially low ebb, as his 28.7% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rates were both career worsts, as was his 66 wRC+ from his .224/.266/.317 batting line.
Now that we’re in an odd-numbered year, García is scheduled for a bounceback but has actually gotten worse in the early going so far. He’s slashing just .161/.200/.274 for a wRC+ of 30. The .211 batting average on balls in play is due for some regression, but he’s also been punched out 32.8% of the time while drawing walks at just a 3.0% clip. The Marlins desperately need him to turn things around, as his contract pays him $12MM per year through 2025, with a $12MM club option for 2026 that has a hefty $5MM buyout. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported yesterday that the club haven’t considered releasing him, but a benching is on the table.
De La Cruz came into this year with 574 plate appearances. His 24.9% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were both a little worse than average, but he had 18 home runs and a .269/.318/.430 line for a 108 wRC+. He’s a little bit ahead of that pace this year, currently hitting .295/.341/.436 for a 114 wRC+ with fairly similar strikeout and walk rates.
He won’t maintain a .396 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is making solid contact. His average exit velocity is in the 88th percentile of MLB hitters, and his hard-hit rate sits in the 80th percentile. Even without elite plate discipline, he can still be a useful hitter with that kind of bat. The right-hander hitter actually has reverse splits, both in his career and so far this season, which would seem to lessen the likelihood of him ending up in the short side of a platoon.
The hot start of De La Cruz seems to have cut into the playing time of Sánchez, as he’s been given only 36 plate appearances in 16 games. He’s hit just .172/.333/.241 in that time, which isn’t doing much to get him in the lineup more.
A left-handed hitter, he has traditional platoon splits for his career. He’s hit .226/.310/.440 against righties for a 108 wRC+, but he has a dismal .195/.230/.323 against southpaws for a 49 wRC+. He could seemingly serve as a useful platoon lefty bat but probably won’t get a chance as long as De La Cruz continues to seem like a viable lineup regular. He’s out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers, which might keep him on the bench until an injury opens a spot for him. Per Jackson and Mish, Sanchez is at risk of losing his roster spot, though the club won’t make a decision on that front until Joey Wendle is back from the injured list.
Burdick got to make his major league debut last year and hit .207/.284/.380 for a wRC+ of 91 in 102 plate appearances. He’s been in Triple-A this year and utterly mashing. Through 20 games, he has a line of .309/.385/.654 and a 157 wRC+. He has a 37.4% strikeout rate and won’t sustain a .436 batting average on balls in play, but he’s already hit eight home runs and stolen four bases.
Encarnación also got a brief major league debut last year, stepping to the plate 81 times but hitting just .182/.210/.338. Like Burdick, he’s also having an excellent start to his 2023 in Triple-A. He has a current batting line of .292/.378/.472 for a wRC+ of 119. However, it’s bolstered by a huge .529 batting average on balls in play and comes despite a 42.7% strikeout rate. His 12.2% walk rate is encouraging but there’s surely some regression coming here.
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It’s hard to glean definitive judgment from one month’s worth of data, but there are some trends and takeaways in the Miami outfield with nearly 15% of the season in the books. Chisholm’s defense in center has been at least passable thus far, so he’s likely to continue on in that role. De La Cruz could hit his way into an everyday role in left field, but right field looks like a continued problem unless Garcia can correct what’s now more than a full season’s worth of struggles. Sanchez’s grip on a roster spot appears tenuous, but while the primary alternatives in Triple-A (Burdick, Encarnacion) have flashy batting lines, their lack of contact calls into question whether they’d be improvements. It’s easy enough to see the outfield again being a point of focus at the trade deadline, whether the Marlins are looking to add a veteran bat to stay in the Wild Card race or looking to acquire a controllable outfielder as part of another selling effort.
Cardinals Option Jordan Walker, Sign Taylor Motter To Major League Contract
The Cardinals have signed utilityman Taylor Motter to a major league deal, the club announced. In a corresponding active roster move, they optioned highly-touted rookie Jordan Walker to Triple-A Memphis.
Walker, one of the consensus top young talents in the sport, broke camp with the MLB club. He’s been passable if unexceptional through his first 78 plate appearances. He’d drawn plenty of attention for a season-opening 12-game hit streak that matched an MLB record for a player his age. Walker has collected hits in 16 of his 19 starts overall, though his game logs mostly consist of one-hit performances. He’s gotten to two hits on just four occasions and has yet to put up a three-hit game. Overall, the former first round draftee is hitting .274/.321/.397 with a pair of home runs in 20 contests. That offensive output is almost exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.
That’s certainly a respectable showing for a player who has yet to reach his 21st birthday. Many hitters Walker’s age are still in the low minors or in college. League average offense through his first three weeks in the majors is no small feat. That said, the organization clearly wasn’t enamored with some of the underlying indicators. He’s punched out 20 times while walking on just three occasions, with both marks checking in worse than league average. To his credit, Walker is hitting the ball with authority when he’s making contact, but he’s swung and missed at 16.4% of the pitches he’s seen. Only eight qualified hitters are whiffing more often.
St. Louis evidently feels he’s better served honing his pitch selection in Triple-A despite his solid overall results. Walker has never played a Triple-A game. He skipped right to the big leagues after a .306/.388/.510 showing in 119 Double-A contests. He’ll presumably continue to get everyday corner outfield reps in Memphis. Drafted as a third baseman, Walker has begun seeing more outfield time in deference to Nolan Arenado. Public defensive metrics have given him below-average marks in his limited body of MLB work (170 innings).
The Cardinals have given Walker the bulk of the right field time. Evidently, they’ll now turn the outfield over to some combination of Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill and Lars Nootbaar. Nootbaar is mashing but the rest of the group has been off to middling starts. Burleson and O’Neill have also posted roughly average numbers, while Carlson has limped to a .234/.294/.298 line.
While there are some legitimate concerns about Walker’s early statistical profile, the lack of overwhelming production from those competing for outfield reps makes this an eyebrow-raising decision from the Cards’ front office. St. Louis can point to performance concerns as justification for the move, but it’s at least likely to spur some questions from fans. It’s possible the demotion will wind up extending the Cardinals’ window of club control.
Had Walker played the entire season in the majors, he’d have picked up a full year of MLB service. That’d have put him on track to reach arbitration after the 2025 season and first hit free agency following the 2028 campaign. An optional stint lasting more than 20 days would delay the free agent trajectory unless Walker earns “bonus” service time by returning and securing a top two finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting. Barring a surprisingly long stay in the minors, he’d likely still get to arbitration over the 2025-26 offseason as a Super Two player. The Cardinals were clearly comfortable enough with potentially burning a pre-arbitration season to carry Walker on the Opening Day roster; they’ve surprisingly started just 9-15 and currently sit at the bottom of the NL Central in spite of that move.
While the Walker demotion is the higher-profile transaction, it’s also surprising to see the Cardinals move so quickly to bring Motter back into the fold. St. Louis had designated the veteran utilityman for assignment over the weekend once Paul DeJong returned from the injured list. Motter cleared waivers but had the right to decline an outright assignment in favor of minor league free agency. Reports this morning suggested he was prepared to stick in the organization, though perhaps that was with an understanding with club officials that he’d be brought back to the majors imminently.
In any event, Motter will rejoin the MLB roster. He joins DeJong as middle infield insurance behind Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman and primary designated hitter Nolan Gorman. The 33-year-old Motter has appeared in seven games this year, collecting four hits and two walks through 20 trips to the dish. He’s a career .192/.264/.310 hitter at the highest level.
Padres Recall Tom Cosgrove For MLB Debut
3:20pm: The Padres have now officially announced Cosgrove’s recall, optioning Weathers in a corresponding move.
2:09pm: The Padres are calling up left-handed reliever Tom Cosgrove, as reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). It’ll be the 26-year-old’s MLB debut whenever he gets into a game. Cosgrove was added to the Padres’ 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, so they only need to make a corresponding 26-man roster move in order to accommodate his promotion to the Majors.
A 12th-round pick by the Padres back in 2017, Cosgrove has opened the 2023 season with 7 1/3 shutout frames in Triple-A, fanning seven of his 26 opponents (26.9%) but also walking four of them along the way (15.4%). Cosgrove was a starter early in his professional career but moved to the bullpen coming out of the canceled 2020 minor league season and has seen his numbers take off since the switch to short relief.
In 2021, the lefty notched a 2.36 ERA in 26 2/3 innings at the Double-A level, and he turned in a combined 3.72 ERA in 55 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A last year. He’s walked 10.8% of his opponents between Double-A and Triple-A but also has an impressive 33.4% strikeout rate between those two levels.
The Padres already have four lefties in their bullpen, with each of Josh Hader, Tim Hill, Ray Kerr and Ryan Weathers giving manager Bob Melvin a southpaw option. San Diego relievers rank 22nd in the Majors with a 4.71 ERA, although that number is skewed a bit by a handful of poor outings from Luis Garcia, Reiss Knehr and Nabil Crismatt. Most of the individual relievers in San Diego’s relief corps have been solid.
The Padres just had an off-day Monday, but the bullpen covered a combined four innings yesterday and a combined 11 1/3 innings in the team’s past three games overall. Cosgrove hasn’t pitched since April 22, so he’ll give them a well-rested arm to slot into the mix. He’s in the first of three minor league option years, so he could be shuttled between El Paso and San Diego several times this year.
Germán Márquez To Get MRI For Triceps Injury
3:10pm: Márquez provided reporters with updates after the game, as relayed by Harding and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. He says his pain is in his triceps, not in the forearm like the previous issue that sent him to the injured list. Initial testing didn’t show significant damage but he’ll get an MRI in Denver tomorrow.
2:10pm: Rockies’ right-hander Germán Márquez departed today’s game, with Thomas Harding of MLB.com among those to relay the details. Márquez was visibly distraught on the mound, leading to a visit from the training staff and Márquez departing without hesitation after having thrown 58 pitches.
A pitcher leaving a game as a precautionary measure is quite common, but this instance is noteworthy on a few fronts. For one thing, Márquez just came off the injured list today, having spent the past 15 days there for forearm discomfort. It appeared he avoided significant injury based on his minimal absence, but it now seems possible the injury has been re-aggravated or was perhaps more serious than previously thought.
This is all still speculative at this point, but it would be a blow to the Rockies if Márquez ends up needing to miss more time as he’s been their best starting pitcher for the past few years. In just over 1,000 career innings coming into today, he had a 4.40 career ERA, no small feat for a pitcher who throws half of his innings at Coors Field. He’s struck out 22.9% of batters faced, walked just 7% and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.6% clip.
No team wants to lose its best starter for any amount of time but that’s especially true for a Colorado club that hasn’t had strong rotations in recent years. Right now, Kyle Freeland has a serviceable 4.28 ERA but with his strikeout rate down at 15.9%, a few ticks below his career norm. Austin Gomber has a 9.28 ERA on the campaign. Ryan Feltner has a 4.68 ERA despite a 12.7% walk rate. Noah Davis has a tiny 0.93 ERA this year but in just two starts and only one inning of prior major league experience. José Ureña was sitting on 9.82 before he was designated for assignment to make room on the roster for the return of Marquez.
If Márquez needs to miss some time, they have Connor Seabold and Peter Lambert on the 40-man roster, both of whom have career ERAs north of 7.00 in the big leagues and are currently above 5.00 in Triple-A this year. Antonio Senzatela will be an option eventually but is still working his way back from last year’s torn ACL. He recently pitched in extended Spring Training but is likely still a few weeks away at least.
For Márquez personally, he’s in the final guaranteed season of the $43MM extension he signed with the club in April of 2019, making $15MM this year. The club has a $16MM option for 2024 that comes with a $2.5MM buyout, making it a net $13.5MM decision. It would be a fairly easy decision for them to trigger that and keep Márquez around for his age-29 season if he were healthy, though that calculus could change if he needed to miss significant time.
The Rockies are currently 8-17 and generally aren’t expected to be in contention this summer. That would theoretically make Márquez a trade candidate, given the looming end of his contract. However, the Rockies have often been surprisingly unwilling to part with their players in deadline deals, even when it makes speculative sense. Recent years have seen them cling to players like Trevor Story, Jon Gray and Daniel Bard even when outside observers thought a trade could be on the table.
Diamondbacks Release Madison Bumgarner
The Diamondbacks announced that left-hander Madison Bumgarner has been released. The southpaw had been designated for assignment last week.
The move doesn’t come as a shock, given the combination of his contract and his poor results of late. He and the D’Backs agreed to a five-year, $85MM deal going into 2020 after the lefty had spent a decade as an incredibly effective pitcher for the Giants. Unfortunately, he seemed like a completely different pitcher once he switched jerseys, starting with a 6.48 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. His strikeout rate dropped to 15.8% after being in the mid-20s for much of his earlier career.
Given the strange nature of that year, it didn’t necessarily portend doom for the remainder of the contract. He bounced back somewhat in 2021, getting his strikeouts back up to a 20.2% level and his ERA down to a more respectable 4.67, but he didn’t get back to the dominant levels of his time with the Giants. His strikeouts dipped again to 16% last year as his ERA climbed north a bit to 4.88. Here in 2023, things went even further south, as he was torched for a 10.26 in his first four starts, punching out just 11.1% of opponents while walking 16.7%. As the club shifted to win-now mode and dedicated its rotation spots to young pitchers on the rise, Bumgarner wore out his welcome in Arizona.
His contract still runs through 2024, with a $23MM salary this year, leaving about $19MM and change left to be paid out before he’ll make $14MM next year. Given that hefty financial commitment and his recent struggles on the mound, it’s unsurprising that none of the 29 other clubs were willing to put in a waiver claim and take on that contract, leading to today’s release.
Bumgarner will now officially return to the open market and will be free to sign with any club, with the Diamondbacks remaining on the hook for that money. Any club that’s willing to give Bumgarner a shot will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what the D’Backs pay. The level of interest he will garner remains to be seen. The minimal financial commitment will certainly be appealing but that will have to be weighed against his lack of effectiveness this year and in the previous three as well.
Rays To Designate Heath Hembree, Select Zack Burdi
The Rays have designated right-handed reliever Heath Hembree for assignment and selected the contract of fellow righty reliever Zack Burdi from Triple-A Durham in his place, reports Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).
Hembree’s stint with the Rays will last just one day, though it was a good one. He pitched 1 1/3 innings of scoreless relief yesterday, yielding a walk but punching out two hitters in the process. The Rays are habitually aggressive with turnover at the back of their roster, however, and they’ll jettison the veteran Hembree from the roster in order to get a fresh arm into the ’pen on a day where they’ll likely lean heavily on their relief corps. Tampa Bay is set to give righty Calvin Faucher his third start of the year today, but they’re in the process of stretching him out at the Major League level. He’s yet to complete three innings in an appearance this season and hasn’t topped 46 pitches.
The 34-year-old Hembree was a fixture in the Boston bullpen from 2015-20 but has struggled since being traded to the Phillies in 2020. From 2020-22, he pitched to a 6.64 ERA, maintaining a strong 27.3% strikeout rate but yielding far too many walks (11.1%) and home runs (2.45 HR/9). The Rays will have a week to trade Hembree, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him. He has enough service to reject an outright assignment to the minors.
Burdi, 28, is a former first-round pick whose career has been derailed by injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery in 2018 and a torn patellar tendon in 2019. The former Louisville standout has been tagged for 15 earned runs in just 17 1/3 Major League frames.
Burdi has had more success in the minors but still has a spotty track record in Triple-A, where he carries a 4.81 ERA in 86 innings of work. He’s fanned 32.5% of his opponents at the top minor league level, thanks in part to a blistering fastball, but Burdi has also issued walks at an untenable 13.5% clip. That includes seven walks (one intentional) in just eight innings this year, during which he’s been charged with six earned runs.
Cardinals Outright Taylor Motter
Cardinals infielder/outfielder Taylor Motter, who was designated for assignment over the weekend when Paul DeJong was reinstated from the injured list, has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Memphis, per the transaction log at MLB.com. Because he’s been outrighted previously in his career, Motter has the ability to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Motter is expected to accept the assignment. He’s being added to the roster at Memphis and will remain in the organization.
Motter, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals over the winter and rode a solid spring training effort to a spot on the team’s Opening Day roster. He received limited playing time in a bench role with St. Louis, appearing in seven games and batting .222/.300/.333 with a pair of walks and eight strikeouts in 20 trips to the plate before being designated for assignment.
Beyond this brief stint with the Cardinals, the well-traveled Motter has spent time in the Majors with the Rays, Mariners, Twins, Red Sox, Rockies and Reds. He also had a brief stint with the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020 season. Overall, Motter is a career .192/.264/.310 hitter in 466 big league plate appearances but carries a more robust .262/.352/.482 slash in 2062 Triple-A plate appearances.
Motter’s versatility surely holds broad-reaching appeal around the league. He’s logged at least 1200 professional innings at each of shortstop, second base, third base, left field and right field, plus another 513 innings in center and 389 innings at first base. He’s even pitched an inning and a third of mop-up duty in the Majors, leaving catcher as the lone position he’s never played at any professional level.
Guardians Promote Tanner Bibee, Designate Konnor Pilkington For Assignment
The Guardians announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of top pitching prospect Tanner Bibee from Triple-A Columbus. He’ll make his Major League debut and start today’s game. In a corresponding roster move, left-hander Konnor Pilkington has been designated for assignment.
Bibee, 24, was Cleveland’s fifth-round pick in 2021 but has quickly outshined that relatively humble draft status. The right-hander breezed through High-A and Double-A in 2022, showing pristine command and a strong ability to miss bats as he pitched to a combined 2.17 ERA in 132 2/3 innings. He’s opened the 2023 campaign with 15 1/3 innings of 1.76 ERA ball and a 19-to-8 K/BB ratio. While Bibee’s command hasn’t been as sharp in this year’s small sample, he’s walked just 6.1% of his opponents since being drafted and boasts a career 32.2% strikeout rate in the minors.
Bibee’s rapid ascension through the Cleveland system is largely attributable to a major jump in fastball velocity. After sitting in the high 80s and low 90s in college at Cal State Fullerton, his heater now resides in the mid-90s. He ranks comfortably within the sport’s top 100 prospects at MLB.com (No. 59), FanGraphs (No. 69) and Baseball America (No. 80). FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen details many of the changes Bibee has made to his mechanics, pitch selection and his physique since being drafted — all without sacrificing the command that garnered him attention in the draft.
Cleveland’s rotation has struggled thus far, with Shane Bieber the only member of the Opening Day quintet who’s currently healthy and pitching well. Triston McKenzie is out until at least late next month due to a teres major strain, and Aaron Civale is on the injured list as well thanks to an oblique strain. Cal Quantrill has given up at least three runs in four of his five starts, including a five-run clunker in 3 1/3 innings against the Rockies earlier this week. Zach Plesac has been tagged for a 6.50 ERA through his first four starts. Neither Quantrill nor Plesac have ever missed many bats, but this year’s strikeout rates of 12.8% and 14.9%, respectively, are both career-lows for the pair of righties.
In light of those injuries and shaky performances, Cleveland has begun to tap into its farm system early. Left-hander Logan Allen — not to be confused with the former Cleveland pitcher of the same name — made his big league debut against the Marlins earlier this week and fired six innings of one-run ball. Righty Peyton Battenfield has held his own through three starts in spite of a rocky 10.8% walk rate. Bibee will join the group for now, and with a strong debut, it’s possible he could stake a claim to a rotation spot moving forward.
Given the timing of his call to the big leagues, Bibee won’t have enough days on the schedule to reach a full year of service time in 2023, even if he’s in the big leagues for good. He could still snag that full year of service with a strong showing in the American League’s Rookie of the Year voting, but barring that scenario, he’ll remain under club control through the 2029 season. He will, however, project as an eventual Super Two player if he sticks in the big leagues, which would position him for arbitration eligibility four times rather than three, beginning after the 2025 season.
As for Pilkington, he’s had a tough start to the season in Triple-A. The 25-year-old southpaw has made four starts and been tagged for 13 runs on 19 hits and 11 walks with 14 strikeouts in 14 innings. He had a rough showing in Triple-A last year as well (5.88 ERA in 56 2/3 innings), but Pilkington was also serviceable in 58 Major League frames in 2022.
In last year’s MLB debut, Pilkington worked to a 3.88 ERA over those 58 innings, making 11 starts and another four relief appearances. His pedestrian 19.4% strikeout rate and bloated 12.4% walk rate made that ERA appear rather suspect, but the bottom-line results were solid.
The Guardians will have a week to trade Pilkington or else attempt to pass him through outright waivers. Given that he’s a 25-year-old lefty who’s stretched out to start and has a minor league option remaining beyond this year, there’s a decent chance another club in need of some pitching depth would have interest, if not via a minor trade then at least via waiver claim. If he makes it through waivers unclaimed, he’ll remain in the Cleveland organization, as he doesn’t have the service time or prior outright required to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A.
Pirates Extend Bryan Reynolds
The Pirates have put an end to the Bryan Reynolds trade/extension saga, announcing on Wednesday that they’ve signed the star outfielder through the 2030 season. The seven-year extension reportedly guarantees Reynolds $100MM in new money on top of the $6.75MM he was already earning in 2023, and it also contains a club option for the 2031 campaign. Reynolds, a CAA client, does not have an opt-out provision but does have a limited six-team no-trade clause. The extension is the largest contract in Pirates franchise history.
Reynolds’ $6.75MM salary for the current season will reportedly remain unchanged, but he’ll now receive a $2MM signing bonus as well. Reynolds will then earn salaries of $10MM in 2024, $12MM in 2025, $14MM in 2026 and $15MM per year from 2027-30. The option is valued at $20MM and contains a $2MM buyout. In all, Reynolds is guaranteed seven years and $100MM on top of the $6.75MM he’d already been earning in 2023. The contract buys out his final two seasons of arbitration and locks in five free-agent seasons with an option for a sixth.
One of two players the Pirates acquired in the trade sending the since re-signed Andrew McCutchen to the Giants, Reynolds hit the ground running with the Bucs in his MLB debut back in 2017, batting .314/.377/.503 with 16 home runs in 546 plate appearances. With the exception of a dreadful showing in a 55-game sample during the shortened 2020 season, Reynolds has continued to hit at a well above-average level. He’s a career .282/.359/.484 hitter in just over 2100 plate appearances, including a .294/.319/.553 start in 2023. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 26% better than a league-average hitter in his career to date.
Moving forward, it seems the Bucs will trot Reynolds out as their primary left fielder, rather than his customary center field. That’s been the case for the majority of the 2023 season, when Reynolds has logged just 35 innings in center compared to 144 innings in left field. Defensive metrics have increasingly soured on Reynolds’ center field work in recent years, and the Pirates have been playing Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae there more frequently in 2023. The early returns on Reynolds’ glovework have been sharp; he’s posted positive ratings in Defensive Runs Saved (3), Ultimate Zone Rating (0.5) and Outs Above Average (1) during his limited work.
The extension for Reynolds marks the culmination of multiple years of trade rumors and a months-long sequence of extension drama that at one point led the outfielder to request a trade. That trade request was not a steadfast declaration that he wanted out of Pittsburgh — clearly — but rather was borne of the fact that Reynolds was seeking a long-term deal that Pirates ownership then appeared simply unwilling to put forth. Mackey reported in February that the Pirates had made a six-year, $76MM offer to Reynolds prior to that trade request; his camp then sought $50-60MM more.
An agreement on these same financial terms was reportedly reached back in spring training, but there were other hold-ups in the deal. At that point, Reynolds had been pushing for an opt-out clause to be included in the contract. It’s a bit surprising that he’d drop that request without the Pirates coming up on their offer, though the inclusion of some limited no-trade protection perhaps provided some extra incentive for Reynolds. Furthermore, the team’s stunning 16-7 start to the season likely only serves to further Reynolds’ belief that the club is headed in the right direction.
All that said, it’s hard not to like this deal for the Pirates. Reynolds’ prior two-year, $13.5MM deal that bought out his first two arbitration seasons effectively signaled that the Bucs viewed his 2022 and 2023 seasons somewhere in the vicinity of $4.5MM and $9MM, respectively. As a Super Two player, he’d have gone through arbitration twice more, earning a pair of raises in the process. It’s not at all unreasonable to think that Reynolds could’ve topped $13MM in 2024 and $17MM in 2025. His final two arb seasons alone were worth close to $30MM (likely a bit more), meaning the five free-agent years on this contract are being valued at roughly $14MM apiece.
Andrew Benintendi just inked a five-year, $75MM deal in free agency, and while he was two years younger than Reynolds would be by the time he’d have reached the market, Reynolds is a decidedly better hitter. The seven years and $100MM in new money secured by Reynolds on this deal is an exact match for the guaranteed portion of Byron Buxton’s deal with the Twins, but Reynolds doesn’t come with any of the durability concerns that have plagued Buxton throughout his career — nor does his contract contain the roughly $8MM of annual incentives in that Buxton deal. Even Corbin Carroll, who’s repped by the same agency as Reynolds and entered the season with just 32 MLB games under his belt, landed an eight-year, $111MM extension from the D-backs during spring training.
Every player’s motivation is quite different, of course, and Reynolds has made clear in the past that his eventual hope was to land a long-term deal that allowed him to remain in Pittsburgh for the long term. He’s done just that, securing a nine-figure guarantee in the process. The extension doesn’t necessarily stack up with what players of his caliber might expect to earn at this juncture of their careers, but Reynolds was clearly willing to compromise in order to remain with the teammates, coaching staff and city he’s come to view as home.
Market context notwithstanding, Reynolds now firmly joins Ke’Bryan Hayes as a foundational piece for the Pirates. The two are the only players signed to a guaranteed deal beyond the current season, and both are under team control through at least 2030. Hayes’ $70MM extension runs through the 2029 season, and Pittsburgh holds a team option for that 2030 season — the final guaranteed year of Reynolds’ new deal.
Reynolds and Hayes will account for $17MM in guaranteed salary next year and for $23MM as far out as the 2029 season. Even for a perennial payroll cellar-dweller like the Pirates, that should leave them with ample room to supplement the roster — particularly if they’re able to convince some of their up-and-coming young talent to agree to club-friendly deals in the same vein as the current pair of extensions they’ve brokered. Talents such as Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras are still quite early in their respective MLB careers, and while both Mitch Keller (three-plus years of MLB service) and David Bednar (two-plus) are further along, both are potential candidates as well. Prospects like Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz could all enter the conversation as they get their feet wet in the Majors as well.
For now, Pirates fans have clear cause to celebrate. The team has sprinted out to a surprising first-place start, and after years of watching the team’s best players inevitably head elsewhere via trade, they can now feel secure that Reynolds will be in black and gold for the foreseeable future.
Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links). Robert Murray of FanSided reported the annual breakdown. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Reynolds can block trades to six teams.
