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Archives for August 2023

Phillies Designate Andrew Vasquez, Release Josh Harrison

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The Phillies announced a series of roster moves today, adding infielder Rodolfo Castro and right-hander Michael Lorenzen to the roster, both of whom were acquired in trades yesterday. To open one roster spot, Josh Harrison was designated for assignment, as reported yesterday. He has now been released. The other spot was opened by left-hander Andrew Vasquez being designated for assignment.

Vasquez, 29, came to the Phillies in the offseason when they claimed him off waivers from the Giants. He is out of options but has managed to stick on the active roster for the entire season up until now. He’s tossed 39 2/3 innings over 30 appearances with a 2.27 ERA.

On the surface, that makes it somewhat surprising that he’s now lost his roster spot, but the numbers under the hood aren’t quite as impressive. His 8.2% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate are pretty close to league average, but his 20% strikeout rate is a few ticks below. He’s benefitted from a .274 batting average on balls in play and 86.8% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side, leading to a 4.31 FIP and 4.29 SIERA.

The Phillies were apparently expecting some regression and have bumped him off the roster. Since he’s out of options and the trade deadline has passed, that left them little choice but to designate him for assignment and try to pass him through waivers. In the event he clears, he will have the right to elect free agency since he has a previous career outright. Despite his out-of-options status, he could garner interest from a club with more ability to keep him on the active roster. He has a career 3.60 ERA in 52 appearances and comes with five seasons of control beyond the current campaign.

As for Harrison, he’s making a $2MM salary this year and has played poorly, hitting just .204/.263/.291. He wasn’t going to be claimed off waivers and has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining all of his salary. That means his return to the open market was inevitable and the Phils have simply skipped the formalities. He’ll be free to sign with the other 29 clubs for the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Phillies pay.

Marlins Option Edward Cabrera

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Amid the flurry of deadline moves yesterday, the Marlins optioned right-hander Edward Cabrera to Triple-A Jacksonville, with Jordan McPherson of The Miami Herald among those who relayed the info.

Cabrera, 25, was generally considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league in his time in the minors but has yet to put together an extended stretch of big league success. He made his debut in the big leagues in 2021 with seven starts, posting an ERA of 5.81 in those. In 2022, he was able to get that down to 3.01, obviously a much better number, but that came in just 14 starts as he made multiple trips to the injured list. He was probably lucky to have that ERA, as his .207 batting average on balls in play and 86.1% strand rate were both on the fortunate side of average, leading to a 4.59 FIP and 4.68 SIERA.

Here in 2023, Cabrera was able to stay healthy for the first half of the season. He did land on the IL in mid-June due to right shoulder impingement, returning after just over a month. His 17 starts and 77 innings are already personal highs at the major league level, and he’s getting strikeouts at a strong 27.6% rate as well as grounders at a 54.4% clip. But he’s paired those with a 15.4% walk rate, the highest such rate of any pitcher with 70 innings pitched this year, almost a full percentage point beyond Alek Manoah’s 14.6% rate. Despite a solid combination of strikeouts and grounders, those control issues have Cabrera’s ERA at 4.79 for the year.

Despite once having a rotation surplus, the Marlins have seen that thinned out this year. They traded Pablo López to the Twins in the offseason and currently have Trevor Rogers and Max Meyer on the 60-day IL. Their rotation mix is now Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Johnny Cueto and Braxton Garrett. With Cabrera nudged out, it’s possible that his spot goes to Ryan Weathers, who was just acquired from the Padres in the Garrett Cooper trade yesterday. Eury Pérez has been optioned himself to monitor his workload, but he could be back up at some point.

This option will likely put the Marlins and Cabrera in a bit of a bind since he only has one option season remaining. Once he spends 20 days on optional assignment, he will burn that last option, meaning he will enter 2024 out of options unless he’s quickly recalled in the coming weeks. It’s unlikely to affect his path to free agency, as he came into this season with 168 days, just under the 172 required for a full year. He’s already gone well beyond that one-year mark, though his chances of reaching Super Two status after 2024 might slip depending on how long he’s in the minors.

The Marlins have a bit of time to decide what to do. If they still believe Cabrera is capable of reining in his control and taking a step forward as a major league starter, they can keep him in that role. Cueto is likely to return to free agency this winter as his $10.5MM club option for 2024 will probably be spurned in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, since he’s mostly been injured and not at his best this year. That could reopen a spot for Cabrera next year, though Rogers and Meyer might be healthy and back in the mix by then as well.

If they think his true future is in the bullpen, they could consider giving him some time in that role now so that he goes into 2024 with a bit of preparation, but doing so would give them a bit less starting depth for the final months of this season. Once the offseason rolls around, they could perhaps pursue trading Cabrera to a rebuilding club with more willingness to give him a starting job at the big league level, though that will be an avenue to pursue in the future. For now, the Fish seem to be at a turning point with the former prospect, which will be an interesting situation to monitor.

Nationals’ Matt Cronin Undergoes Back Surgery

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Nationals left-hander Matt Cronin announced on Instagram that he underwent surgery this week to repair a herniated disc in his back (hat tip to Talk Nats, on Twitter). Wrote Cronin:

“For those that don’t know, I had been dealing with pain in my left shoulder/arm for the last 2 years but could never seem to find anything wrong with them. That was up until about a month ago when we decided to have my spine checked out and found a large herniated disc at my C5-C6 level.”

Cronin, 25, is on the Nationals’ 40-man roster but has not yet made his Major League debut. He’s been limited to just 14 1/3 innings this season owing to that injury, logging a 5.02 ERA at the Triple-A level in that sample. Despite the pain apparently impacting him last year, he still posted a strong 2.42 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate in 52 innings of relief between the Double-A and Triple-A levels (including 16 1/3 scoreless frames at the former of those two levels).

The Nats haven’t formally announced the surgery or a timetable for Cronin’s return, though he surely won’t be getting back on the mound in 2023. If the Nats need a spot on their 40-man roster in the near future and don’t mind starting up his service clock, Cronin could be called up to the Majors and placed directly on the 60-day injured list as a means of opening that spot. Baseball America ranked Cronin 18th among Nationals farmhands this year, touting excellent carry on the southpaw’s low-to-mid 90s fastball and the potential in his slider and changeup. MLB.com has him 22nd among Washington prospects, calling him a “high-floor bullpen arm” whose secondary offerings should allow him to be effective against righties and lefties alike.

D-backs Grant Zach McAllister His Release

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The Diamondbacks granted right-hander Zach McAllister his release from their Triple-A affiliate in Reno, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports. He’d been with the Aces all season and is now a free agent.

McAllister, 35, hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2018. He spent six years as a steady back-of-the-rotation starter and then middle reliever in Cleveland, pitching to a combined 3.84 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 529 innings of work. McAllister fell off quickly, however; he was rocked for a 6.20 ERA in 45 frames during the 2018 season and hasn’t pitched at the MLB level since.

McAllister had brief stints with the Triple-A affiliates for the Dodgers (2019) and Phillies (2021) but didn’t reach 15 innings in either of those seasons. He tossed 67 2/3 frames of 3.99 ERA ball with the Cardinals’ top minor league club last year, striking out 30% of his opponents along the way, and has a 4.93 ERA in 38 1/3 Triple-A innings with Reno this season. It’s an ugly number on the surface, though it’s worth pointing out just how hitter-friendly the Pacific Coast League is; nearly two-thirds of PCL pitchers with 30 or more innings this year have an ERA north of 5.00. McAllister has again fanned 30% of his opponents in 2023, although his 11.2% walk rate leaves plenty to be desired.

With the D-backs not giving him a look before today’s out date, the veteran righty will head back to the market in search of a new opportunity with a club in clearer need of bullpen depth.

Padres Designate Brent Honeywell For Assignment

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The Padres announced Wednesday that they’ve designated righty Brent Honeywell Jr. for assignment, optioned catcher Brett Sullivan to Triple-A El Paso and placed lefty Tim Hill on the 15-day injured list with a sprained finger on his pitching hand. That sequence of moves will create the necessary roster space to add trade acquisitions Garrett Cooper, Scott Barlow and Ji Man Choi to the roster.

Honeywell, 28, spent five years ranked among baseball’s top 100 prospects at Baseball America but was repeatedly set back by injuries. He’s had a stunning four elbow surgeries dating back to 2018, completely derailing what looked to be a potential fast-track to MLB stardom. The 2014 second-rounder was in the upper minors by 22 years of age, tossing 136 2/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball with a 30.3% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate between Double-A and Triple-A in 2017. He didn’t throw another pitch in an official game until the 2021 season in Triple-A.

Eventually traded to the A’s and outrighted off the 40-man roster, Honeywell became a free agent last offseason and signed a big league deal with the Padres. He’s pitched in 36 games out of the bullpen for San Diego this year, working to a 4.05 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 48.9% ground-ball rate and 1.54 HR/9. The 46 2/3 innings he’s pitched this year are more than he threw in 2021-22 combined.

Honeywell is averaging 95 mph on his heater but also has a below-average 10% swinging-strike rate and 28% opponents’ chase rate. He’s out of minor league options, so the Padres weren’t able to simply send him to the minors.

Now that the trade deadline has passed, Honeywell’s fate is rather straightforward. He’ll head for outright waivers, where all 29 other clubs will have the opportunity to place a claim. Waiver priority is based on a simple reverse standings — worst record to best — and contrary to common belief is not league-specific. If he’s placed directly onto waivers today, the A’s would have the first chance to claim him, followed by the Royals. He can be controlled via arbitration for another five seasons.

Rich Hill Plans To Pitch In 2024

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Rich Hill, traded to his 13th team yesterday at 43 years young, has no intention of making the Padres the final stop in his baseball career. The left-hander tells MLB.com’s Justice de los Santos that he has “all intentions of playing” in what would be his 20th Major League season in 2024 (Twitter link).

Hill’s age-35 comeback season with the Red Sox was remarkable on its own — way back in 2015. At that point, the suggestion that Hill would still be pitching in 2023 with his sights set on continuing into 2024 would’ve sounded like utter lunacy. He’d pitched in just 153 innings in the seven seasons from 2008-14, compiling a 5.41 ERA and regularly being bounced off rosters and passed through waivers. His 1.55 ERA in four late-season starts with Boston in 2015 was a fun story, but the manner in which the next decade unfolded has been completely unforeseeable.

That 29-inning sample with the Red Sox prompted the A’s to sign Hill for a year and $6MM, and he went on to dominate with Oakland to the point that the Dodgers pounced to acquire him and Josh Reddick for a trio of then-prospects: Frankie Montas, Jharel Cotton and Grant Holmes. Hill re-signed in Los Angeles on three-year, $48MM deal that seemed surreal at the time, given where he’d been just a couple years prior.

He’s steadily slowed from an upper-tier starting pitcher to a cagey innings eater in the years since, pitching to a 3.00 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate from 2016-19 but a 4.15 ERA and 21% strikeout rate in 440 2/3 innings dating back to 2020. That includes a 4.76 ERA, 19.6% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 119 frames with the Pirates this year.

Hill will step into the back of the Padres’ rotation and help provide stable innings behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Righty Seth Lugo is quickly approaching his career-high innings count after moving from a relief role to a starting role this year, and while he’s pitched quite well to date, it’s unclear how he’ll fare as his workload moves into uncharted territory. Hill’s steady, if unspectacular innings, could prove important as the Padres hope for a second-half surge that’ll push them back into the playoff picture.

How Hill fares in the season’s final two months will impact his earning power in free agency. It’s hard to imagine anyone inking him to a multi-year deal regardless, given his age, but his performance in San Diego will play a large role in dictating the type of guarantee he can command on another one-year pact.

Yesterday’s trade to the Padres was notable in that they’ll be Hill’s 13th Major League team — tying him for the second-most franchises appeared for by any player. Edwin Jackson holds that oddball record at 14. Hill will have a chance to tie him this offseason and perhaps even surpass him next year, if he’s traded during the 2024 campaign.

Willie Calhoun Elects Free Agency

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The Yankees announced this morning that outfielder Willie Calhoun, whom they designated for assignment on Friday, rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

The 28-year-old Calhoun signed a minor league deal with the Yankees over the winter, was added to the big league roster in early April, and wound up hitting .239/.309/.403 (96 wRC+) in 149 plate appearances before landing on the injured list with a quad strain in late June. He missed more than a month of action, and when his rehab assignment was up, the Yankees opted to keep Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney and Greg Allen over Calhoun. All four were out of minor league options, meaning the odd man out ultimately had to be designated for assignment.

Calhoun once ranked as one of baseball’s top prospects but has never developed the type of offense that was projected of him during his minor league days with the Dodgers and the Rangers (who acquired him as the headline prospect in the deadline trade sending Yu Darvish to Los Angeles).  He’s a career .240/.300/.404 hitter in 1085 big league plate appearances. Calhoun doesn’t walk much (career 7.4%) but also has above-average bat-to-ball skills (15% strikeout rate). He typically makes hard contact at decent levels and was well above-average during this year’s stint with the Yankees, generating an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph and hitting 42.6% of his batted balls at 95 mph or more.

Calhoun has played left field almost exclusively in his career but carries dismal grades for his glovework from Defensive Runs Saved (-15), Ultimate Zone Rating (-13) and Outs Above Average (-14) in 1304 career innings at the position. Still, teams in need of a some outfield depth and, particularly, a left-handed bat could give him a look now that he’s back on the market.

The Opener: Roster Moves, Kirilloff, Miley

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With trade season officially in the past, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Post-Deadline Roster Moves:

While the trade deadline has come and gone, yesterday’s trades figure to continue impacting the rosters of clubs going forward. While clubs need to clear 40-man roster space for acquired players at the time of the deal, most active roster moves take longer to be completed. One such example regards the deal that sent third baseman Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs; while Chicago acquired Candelario on Monday, he wasn’t activated until the following day, when first baseman Trey Mancini was designated for assignment as a corresponding move. On the other end of the spectrum, sellers typically find themselves with plenty of 40-man roster spots available following trade season, allowing them to select additional players to the roster, as the Pirates and Mets did yesterday, or place waiver claims on the myriad players who found themselves designated for assignment in the past few days.

2. Kirilloff Undergoes MRI:

Twins first baseman Alex Kirilloff underwent an MRI on his shoulder yesterday, as noted by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Kirilloff, who went on the 10-day injured list over the weekend with a shoulder strain, has been a key cog in the Twins’ lineup this year when healthy, slashing .270/.357/.442 with a 124 wRC+ in 258 plate appearances. With Kirilloff on the shelf, first base reps figure to primarily go to Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo, the latter of whom will shift from the outfield to the infield to cover for Kirilloff. Those additional outfield at-bats figure to be split between Max Kepler, Willi Castro, and Matt Wallner in the outfield corners.

3. Miley to return:

Veteran southpaw Wade Miley has been on the shelf since early July due to discomfort in his elbow but is expected to be activated from the 15-day IL to take the ball in today’s game against the Nationals. During this second stint in Milwaukee throughout his 13-year big league career, Miley has pitched solidly with a 3.06 ERA and 4.38 FIP in 67 2/3 innings (13 starts). While a starter with an ERA+ 39% better than league average is a surefire upgrade to the rotation of any given club, Miley’s return is a particularly valuable development given Milwuakee just lost right-hander Julio Teheran (4.74 ERA in 11 starts) to the IL due to a hip impingement over the weekend.

Scherzer: Mets Planning 2024 As “A Kind Of Transitory Year” With Focus On 2025-26

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The Mets had a Major League record payroll of close to $357MM on Opening Day, as they followed up their 101-win season in 2022 with an incredibly aggressive offseason.  However, just as the Mets broke new ground in building their roster, they have also been as aggressive in pivoting in the wake of a very disappointing four months.

With just a 50-55 record entering today’s action, the Mets have been one of the trade deadline’s busiest teams, unloading both major and minor names, rental players and some players controlled beyond the 2023 season.  The long list of players departing Queens in the last six weeks includes Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, Dominic Leone, and Eduardo Escobar, as the Mets have pursued a strategy of absorbing most of the salaries of those departed players in order to obtain more young talent in return.

As Scherzer told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets’ plan apparently extends to rebuilding not for the 2024 season, but for future seasons.  Scherzer had to waive his no-trade protection in order to be dealt to the Rangers, and before making his decision, the ace first spoke with GM Billy Eppler and the Amazins’ longer-term plans.

According to Scherzer, “I was like, ’OK, are we reloading for 2024?’  [Eppler] goes, ’No, we’re not.  Basically our vision now is for 2025-2026, ’25 at the earliest, more like ’26.  We’re going to be making trades around that.’  I was like, ’So the team is not going to be pursuing free agents this offseason or assemble a team that can compete for a World Series next year?’  He said, ’No, we’re not going to be signing the upper-echelon guys.  We’re going to be on the smaller deals within free agency. ‘24 is now looking to be more of a kind of transitory year.’ ”

A follow-up chat between Scherzer and Mets owner Steve Cohen took the same tack, which inspired Scherzer to waive his no-trade clause and approve the deal to the Rangers.  “That’s basically what Steve said: ’I never thought in a million years we’d be in this situation, being at the deadline and we’re actually selling.  But the math is the math.  And the math says this organization needs to retool.’  That was Steve saying that.  I said, ’I get it. I’m not here to say you’re wrong.’  It is what it is. I understand from Steve’s perspective that’s the direction he wants to take the team based on where everyone is at within their contracts, arbitration, free agency.  That was the new vision for the Mets.”

However, Scherzer also noted that “if they had said, ‘We’re going to hold on to all the ‘24 pieces,’ that would have been a different story.”

“But they were saying no, we’re going to be moving players that are under contract for 2024 before the deadline.  We walked through some players I had in mind who would be that.  It turned out it was much more extensive than that.  The players we ended up talking about who are free agents after ‘24, they were more substantial names.  Any player who was a free agent after 2024 at the right price could be moved right now at the deadline.  That’s a completely different vision from what everybody had in the clubhouse.  All the players had a vision of, we reload for 2024.  That was no longer the case.”

Scherzer (who had an opt-out clause), Canha ($11.5MM club option for 2024), and Verlander were the only players controlled beyond 2023 who ended up being moved, as the likes of Jose Quintana and other club-option players like Brooks Raley, Omar Narvaez, and Adam Ottavino are all still with New York.  Still, obviously moving two cornerstone aces like Scherzer and Verlander marked a severe change in direction for the Mets’ plans, as trading either pitcher in a deadline deal would’ve seem far-fetched given the hefty investment made in both future Hall-of-Famers over the last two winters.  Verlander was signed to a two-year, $86.67MM with a conditional player option for 2025, while Scherzer came to Queens in the 2021-22 offseason on a three-year, $130MM pact.

In the wake of Scherzer’s trade, Eppler stated to reporters that “I do want to be clear that it’s not a rebuild.  It’s not a fire sale.  It’s not a liquidation.  This is just a repurposing of Steve’s investment in the club, and kind of shifting that investment from the team into the organization.”  Talking with media (including SNY’s John Flanigan) today, Eppler didn’t comment on Scherzer’s statements to Rosenthal, but expanded on his previous statement and reiterated that the Mets weren’t going to tank.

“One of the goals here is to expedite the longer-term goal.  We’re trying to restock and reload the farm system,” Eppler said.  “You have to go through a little pain to get where we want to go, but I feel like the organization is making strides towards a better future…..Going into 2024 we don’t see ourselves having the same odds that we did in 2022 and 2023, but we will field a competitive team.”

Cohen made similar remarks in a text to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, saying “We will be competitive in ’24 but I think 25-26 is when our young talent makes an impact.  Lots of pitching in free agency in ’24.  More payroll flexibility in ’25.  Got a lot of dead money in ’24.”

Since buying the Mets in November 2020, Cohen has been quite open about his bigger-picture dream for the club — citing the Dodgers as the model, Cohen wanted to field a consistent contender with the resources to acquire premium free agents or trade targets, but largely fueled by star talent developed by the Mets’ own farm system.  Cohen didn’t want to wait for that prospect base to be fully built before the Mets started winning, however, and said that he would spend heavily to make the team a contender in the interim.

As it has turned out, this initial plan might just result in one winning season in Cohen’s first three years running the club.  The Mets were 77-85 in 2021, are on pace for a losing record this year, and even the 101-win performance last year was muted when the Padres ousted them in the wild card series.  Rather than splurge again to restock a flawed roster for 2024, it makes sense that Cohen and Eppler might view taking a step back in order to hopefully two steps forward in 2025 or 2026, rather than continue to tread water in a competitive NL East.  The Braves look like surefire contenders for years to come, the Phillies won the NL pennant last year, and the Marlins have also gotten themselves back into the playoff race.

The new direction opens a wealth of new possibilities for the Mets this coming offseason.  It can be assumed that highly-touted youngsters Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty aren’t going anywhere, if New York wants to expand its young core.  Players recently signed to longer-term contracts or extensions (i.e. Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz) aren’t likely to be moved either, since this group will all still be around during the Mets’ new timeline for contention.

Beyond that core, it’s fair to wonder if any other Mets player might be on the trade market this winter.  That includes Jose Quintana (signed through 2024) and Starling Marte (signed through 2025), as while neither has amassed much of a track record in 2023, the Mets have shown that they’re more than willing to eat money to accommodate trades.  The biggest question mark might hang over Pete Alonso, as the slugger has one final arbitration-eligible year remaining before he enters free agency following the 2024 campaign.

Roster Resource projects that New York has roughly $204.2MM on the books for 2024 already, but a step back from contention might also logically mean a desire for the team to reset its luxury tax status.  The Mets obviously blew past the highest tax levels in both 2022 and 2023, but getting out of tax territory entirely ($237MM is the lowest threshold level in 2024) would both reduce the team’s financial penalty, and more importantly the asset-related penalties attached with tax overages.  For instance, the Mets would be able to sign qualifying-offer free agents for a lesser cost of draft picks, while also netting a higher draft return for any of their own free agents who reject a QO and sign elsewhere.  In other punishment for incurring such a high tax bill in 2022, the Mets also had their first pick in the 2023 draft pushed back by ten slots, and their international signing pool was reduced.

If the Amazins aren’t planning to be big spenders this winter, that naturally has a big impact on this offseason’s free agent class, given how Cohen’s largesse has driven the market over the last two years.  Given the relatively thin nature of the 2023-24 class, the Mets front office might be planning to capitalize by using some of their roster as trade chips, as rival clubs might not find what they’re looking for in free agency.  As Cohen noted, there are plenty of interesting pitchers available following the 2024 season if the Mets do intend only a one-year step back, such as Scherzer again, Max Fried, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and many others.

Speaking Burnes and Woodruff, it would remiss if we didn’t mention the persistent rumors that the Mets will pursue David Stearns as the next president of baseball operations, as Cohen said last month that he is still looking to install a new executive above Eppler on the decision-making pyramid.  Stearns’ contract with the Brewers is up after the season, and if the speculation is true and he does head to New York for his next job, it might make sense if Stearns eventually pursues some of his old Milwaukee players.  That said, whether Stearns or someone else is the new president, it would make sense that the Mets gives the new hire at least a year to fully assess the organization, before turning back towards contending in 2025 or 2026.

Astros Acquire Justin Verlander From Mets

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Justin Verlander is back in Houston. The Astros re-acquired the defending Cy Young winner and cash for outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. Houston designated infielder Joe Perez for assignment in a corresponding 40-man move.

The Mets are paying a combined $35MM of Verlander’s 2023-24 salary. They’d pay half of his $35MM salary in 2025 if his option vests. In all, they’re paying as much as $52.5MM of the nearly $93MM that could still be paid out on his deal, pending that option.

Verlander, 40, was with the Astros from 2017-22 and departed as a free agent this offseason to sign for a record-tying annual value in Queens. His two-year, $86.666MM contract tied his former Tigers teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV on a three-year deal with the Mets, but the reunion between the two future Hall of Famers will only prove to last a few months before being spun into a rivalry. The Mets shipped Scherzer to the Rangers on Saturday and will now send Verlander to Texas’ top division rival.

The 2023 season began on a sour note for Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the year after suffering a strained teres major near the end of spring training. He’s in the midst of yet another strong season, though his performance in 2023 isn’t to the same level as it was in 2022, when he stunned the baseball world by capturing his third Cy Young Award as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Verlander logged a ridiculous 1.75 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 175 innings last season. He’s pitched to a 3.15 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 96 innings this year, and seen slight steps back in his average fastball (from 95.1 mph to 94.6mph), swinging-strike rate (11.6% to 10%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.9% to 35%).

That said, even if Verlander’s overall season numbers aren’t quite as dominant as in 2022, there’s little doubt that he’s a major upgrade to an Astros staff that has lost right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the season. Righty Cristian Javier also hit a wall recently and has been struggling, and the ’Stros lost right-hander Jose Urquidy for three months due to shoulder troubles. Verlander’s return will add one of the most talented arms of the entire generation back to the front of a staff, where he’ll join Cy Young candidate Framber Valdez, standout rookie Hunter Brown, Javier and rookie J.P. France. When Urquidy returns in the near future, it’s possible the Astros will go to a six-man rotation to help monitor the workloads of Brown and France.

For the Mets, Verlander becomes the fourth notable veteran they’ve shipped out in the past week, joining Scherzer, David Robertson and Mark Canha. The Mets have picked up a strong package of prospects in doing so but also waved a white flag on a season in which their $350MM+ payroll was expected to make them legitimate World Series contenders. They’ve also completely wiped out their rotation, which now consists of Jose Quintana (a trade candidate himself), Carlos Carrasco, Kodai Senga and David Peterson. Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi are candidates to step back into the starting staff.

The only near-term pitching prospect the Mets added in that slate of deals was righty Justin Jarvis, who came over from the Brewers and had been ranked near the back of their top 30 prospects on most publications. Given Carrasco’s status as a pending free agent and the unproven nature of Peterson, Megill and Lucchesi, they’ll head into the offseason with an enormous amount of work to do in rounding out the rotation. It’s a deep crop of free agents, headlined by names like Shohei Ohtani, Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman and NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If the Mets plan to compete in 2024 — hardly a sure thing in the wake of their deadline activity — they’ll need to aggressively pursue rotation additions via either that free-agent market or the trade market.

The acquisition of Gilbert and Clifford could both help if the Mets choose the latter. While it’s certainly possible that both newly acquired outfielders fit into the long-term puzzle, that’s no sure thing — particularly for a team so willing to splash around in free agency. Brandon Nimmo is already signed for another seven years, so there are only two real long-term vacancies in the outfield anyhow.

Gilbert, 22, is the more advanced of the two prospects and the one who’s garnered more national fanfare. The Astros’ top pick in the 2022 draft, he’s already ascended to the Double-A level in his first full season of pro ball. The University of Tennessee standout laid waste to High-A pitching early in the season, slashing .360/.421/.686 in 95 plate appearances before an aggressive promotion to Double-A. He’s been a bit below average in terms of his overall output there, batting .241/.342/.371 in 264 plate appearances. However, Gilbert has also shown an advanced approach, walking in 12.5% of his Double-A plate appearances against a lower-than-average 17.5% strikeout rate.

MLB.com ranks Gilbert as the game’s No. 68 overall prospect, and FanGraphs has him at No. 49 on their list. Both reports give Gilbert a chance to be in the big leagues by next season, touting his plus speed, plus arm, great approach at the plate and growing power. He has a chance to stick in center field, perhaps pushing Nimmo to a corner if the veteran’s defense slips as he ages into his mid-30s. If not, Gilbert projects as a plus defender in an outfield corner. Both FanGraphs and MLB.com make note of his fiery personality, which could win over hometown fans while grating on opponents.

As for Clifford, he was taken ten rounds later in the same 2022 draft not for lack of talent but for a strong commitment to Vanderbilt University. The Mets convinced him to sign rather than attend college, offering him a huge $1.25MM bonus in the 11th round after most teams had passed assuming he’d head to school.

Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets that Gilbert and Clifford would’ve been his No. 1 and No. 2 Astros prospects, respectively, on the reranking of their system he’s set to publish following the deadline. Clifford hit just .247 but posted a .426 OBP in 101 plate appearances during his pro debut last year, and his rate stats in 2023 are outstanding: .291/.399/.520 in 371 plate appearances between Class-A and High-A. He’s slugged 18 home runs and 16 doubles, walking at a hearty 12.4% clip against a 24% strikeout rate.

FanGraphs had already bumped Clifford to the Astros’ No. 2 prospect — he’s now eighth in the Mets’ system on their rankings — crediting him with the potential to grow into 70-grade raw power. He’s a corner outfielder/first baseman with below-average speed and above-average arm strength. So long as his bat and overall offensive approach continue on their current trajectories, he could be in an outfield corner with occasional first base and DH time for the Mets at some point in 2025.

The Mets have done a nice job adding to their system, acquiring at least a pair of top-100-caliber prospects (Acuna, Gilbert) and another (Clifford) who could get there before long. They’ve paid a steep price to do so, however, gutting their 2023 roster and paying down close to $71MM on the Scherzer and Verlander deals alone. They’ve also saved just over $86MM on the pair of trades, including both salary and luxury tax penalties. In the event Verlander’s option vests and he exercises it, those savings would jump to more than $119MM (while the dead money they’d paid down would rise to more than $86MM).

The Mets are so far into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization, that short of getting a team to take on the entirety of the Verlander and Scherzer contracts, there was no real way of ducking back underneath that line. The Astros, meanwhile, have received enough cash from the Mets that they’ll likely come in under the luxury line. Roster Resource had them exceeding the $233MM first-tier threshold by only a margin of $1.7MM even when assuming the full freight of Verlander’s remaining money; that clearly won’t be the case now. That would’ve been the first time Houston had crossed into luxury territory, but they’ll now have Verlander for a total of $22.777MM for the remainder of this season and next — plus an additional $17.5MM in 2025 if that option vests and he picks it up.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Astros were acquiring Verlander for two prospects. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Gilbert’s inclusion, while Nightengale was first on Clifford. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first with the specific financial breakdown.

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