The 2023 offseason has long had the look of one that could spell significant change for the Brewers. Between manager Craig Counsell interviewing with other clubs as he prepares to potentially depart from the organization and a the news that right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff will miss the majority of 2024 due to shoulder surgery, the winds of change seem to be blowing through Milwaukee more strongly than ever before.
Woodruff is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to make $11.6MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames join him as high-dollar arbitration players entering their final season of team control. Burnes is projected for a $15.1MM payday, while Adames projects for a $12.4MM salary in 2024. Taken together, the three players project for a whopping $39.1MM. Those three projected salaries and the $26MM owed to Christian Yelich next season combine to make up more than half of the club’s estimated $126MM payroll (courtesy of RosterResource) in 2023.
Beyond those commitments, the club has a $9.5MM decision to make on Mark Canha’s club option and arbitration raises for the likes of Adrian Houser and Devin Williams, not to mention smaller guaranteed contracts for the likes of Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby. Beyond that, the club will need to add to a rotation that figures to enter the 2024 campaign with only Burnes, Peralta, and Houser locked in as starters, replace Victor Caratini as a complement to William Contreras behind the plate, and find ways to improve an offense that finished the season with a wRC+ of just 92, the seventh worst figure in the majors.
With a laundry list of needs and limited payroll space, it’s long been speculated that Milwaukee could look to deal Burnes ahead of his impending free agency in 2024, allowing them to recoup value for their ace pitcher while also saving $15MM or more to put towards other additions. As sensible as that plan may have been, Woodruff’s injury complicates things for the Brewers. After all, the idea of trading Burnes hinges in part on the fact that Woodruff and Peralta would be a capable front-of-the-rotation duo that could help the club absorb the loss of Burnes. With Woodruff out for at least the first half of 2024 and perhaps even longer, the club’s Opening Day rotation would have only Peralta and Houser penciled into it if Burnes were traded.
Given the importance of Burnes to the club’s competitive hopes for 2024, it’s become more sensible than ever for the Brewers to consider dealing their shortstop as a way to open up budget space while also bringing in pieces who could help fill out the major league club for 2024 and beyond. Adames would surely garner plenty of interest on the trade market. Though the league has seen plenty of quality shortstops hit free agency in recent winters, that’s changing this winter: the class is highlighted by the likes of Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, and Gio Urshela. Despite the dearth of quality options, plenty of teams could be in the market for infield help such as the Mariners, Marlins, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. Adames’s mix of strong defense and average-or-better offense should make him an attractive trade candidate and perhaps the best player available at his position, even after a down campaign that saw Adames slash just .217/.310/.407 with a career-worst wRC+ of 94.
Of course, there’s potential pitfalls in such an approach as well. The club seems likely to stick with Brice Turang up the middle in 2024, with the likes of Andruw Monasterio, Abraham Toro, Jahmai Jones and Owen Miller as possible depth pieces. That group would surely need at least one additional player to replace Adames. The Brewers could look again to the trade market to replace Adames with a younger infielder, or simply move Turang to shortstop while signing a player like Urshela or Merrifield who could potentially provide the club with an offensive boost.
Given those pitfalls, a trade of Adames would likely require a return package that fills holes in other areas for the Brewers. If Milwaukee were able to land rotation help or a potential infield regular in exchange for Adames, a trade would be an excellent way for the club to extend its competitive window beyond the 2024 season without taking too significant a step back in the short-term. That being said, replacing the production of Adames would require savvy moves from a Brewers front office that has struggled to get offense from the rest of its infield in recent years.
What do MLBTR readers think the best path forward is for the Brewers? Should they retain Adames despite the holes in the roster and his impending free agency after 2024? Or should they risk a significant step back on the infield in 2024 in order to shore up the roster in other areas and improve the club’s standing for 2025 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below:
(poll link for app users)
they should stop being cheap
Why? Doesn’t give them any better chance at winning in the post season. Blue print is already printed out for teams. Make playoffs, and flip a coin in each of the playoff series. Whether fans like it or not the playoffs as currently constructed and in years past is a complete crapshoot and that’s how teams think as well. World Series champs aren’t the best team, just the hottest team for 3 weeks in October.
Such a tired; sad refrain that isn’t even close to being right. Aren’t you tired of regurgitating the same B.S. over & over ?? We get it, your favorite team got beat out by a lesser seed, or didn’t make it to begin with. The sour grapes whining about the postseason format is so old and so trite. Play a different record. Or just play better!!!
You remember to do the same in your responses.
Manfred has already acknowledged the playoff format needs adjusting and I don’t have a favourite team. Playing better has nothing to do with it. The format will be change because it’s bad and the intelligent people in baseball like myself have identified it as a problem way prior to them going to 6 teams to begin with.
Manfred thinks the current playoff format is good for baseball espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38758994/rob-manfred-touts…
iverbure: I want to apologize for my abrupt tone in my first response to you yesterday. I just had too much social media I think and should’ve just went to bed. Will try to be better.
A sad reflection of the changes to our culture.
Maybe the local TV money should be shared equally among all teams.
Maybe small and medium market teams should do a better job marketing their product and stop crying about how local tv deals are unfair. I don’t see St Louis fans boo hooing about market size.
You small market fans KILL me! You want to reach into large market teams pockets for their tv deals? Do you even realize how much money the LEAGUE gives small market teams from their NATIONAL tv deals? Nationally televised games you cry babies never play on because no one cares about your second rate organizations. YouTube, Apple, ESPN so on that pay top dollar to host Yankee, Red Sox, Dodger, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Jays and spread those billions of dollars to all teams. Small, non-competitive teams reap benefits of the billions of dollars paid to mlb for the playoff broadcasting rights without ever being in the playoffs. The “balanced schedule” doesn’t benefit large market teams, it benefits small market teams. Large market teams actually sell tickets vs small market teams where fans come to see who, yep, large market teams.
Small markets need to stop crying poor and start developing local revenue streams. The Cubs didn’t rest of their laurels, no, they spent billions of dollars to renovate their stadium, buy local real estate, create a network, expand their international marketing footprint. Just because your ownership is too cheap and short sighted doesn’t mean they can’t and it certainly doesn’t mean larger market teams owe you anything.
When the Dodgers TV deal basically pays their salaries, that is a problem whether large market apologists see it or not.
But you already have Robby the robot in your pocket, so don’t you worry about the future of the game or anything. As long as you get yours, right?
Spoken like a true arrogant and self centered Cub fan who knows that the only way they will ever win another championship is to buy the best players that small market teams have developed. It certainly is from have a coaching staff that is capable of managing the talent they have at a high level. In fact everything the Cubs accomplish is in spite of the horrible coaching they have. .
I have to admit upon further observation Dave Ross leaves much to be desired in the manager role it seems. Not sure why he was hired other than he was on the 2016 squad and he got along with his teammates. He was everybody’s buddy.
Negotiate a better tv deal!
Every single mlb teams makes 100 million dollars in tv deals. The average take from a mlb game from tickets, merch and food is 4 million a game. 424 million dollars. Stop whining.
St louis tv revenue is double milwaukee. Lol. St louis is also a five time bigger market than milwaukee
Milwaukee is one of the only teams with a ligament complaint because their market is encroached upon by the Chicago teams.
Let’s also not forget that media markets are not just limited to the city in which the team plays. Cincinnati as an example has Columbus, Indianapolis, Nashville and Knoxville.
Brewers payout from Bally tv deal is $40m. Since, Bally went bankrupt they skipped the April payment.
Fyi – mlb almost went bankrupt when it was all large markets. Turns out the same teams playing each other is boring. Like it or not, large and small market teams need each other.
I may be an “arrogant Cubs fan” but it does change the facts:
The Ricketts spent a billion dollars of their OWN money to renovate Wrigley pretty much immediately after spending a billion dollars to buy the team and after they spent 10s of millions in the Dominican Republic building a baseball facility. They also had a very small tv deal which they tore up and spent millions creating the Marquee Network. They’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars buying up all the real estate around Wrigley as an investment. During all that time, the Cubs managed to be one of the top spending teams in the league.
You think 25,000 fans or so at a Brewers game are spending on average $150 per man, woman, and child ? And if so, not counting player salaries, how much of that is left over after all the other expenses are paid? And by “all” I mean every expense for the entire organization.
Every wonder how much it cost just to fly an entire baseball team and personell to 3 different cities on a road trip? The cost of hotels, transportation, food, security?
You cannot use gross revenue figures
Source? For what team? In what area? Have you seen the books on all 30 teams? I thought not.
I am sure those numbers are skewed by the large markets. Most of the numbers Robby the robot puts out there usually is.
The Atlanta Braves are the only team with “open books” since they are part of a publicly traded company.
He quoted made up figures as to what a team brings in. I was calling him on it since he had no clue.
Please. Ricketts didn’t do that out of the goodness of his heart but because he HAD to. There had been complaints about that place FOR YEARS and it was long overdue for an upgrade. Since he owns Wrigley too, he was investing in his own real estate.
drasco0363 hours ago
Maybe small and medium market teams should do a better job marketing their product
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You cannot change the size of your market. No matter what you do, places like Mil, Cle, and Cincy will always be smaller and poorer than LA, SF & NY.
You can market the crap out of a diner in the South Bronx, but you still won’t be able to charge $25 for bacon and eggs.
drasco036 go back and troll on the Cubs’ posts. You’re getting owned here and all you are accomplishing is demonstrating how ignorant you are.
Maybe terrible owners who put out terrible teams should start LOSING MONEY instead of handouts, so they sell the team or put up a product WORTH WATCHING?
Maybe you should research why leagues spent years structuring their leagues like this so they don’t have owners losing money. Also research why the mlbpa doesn’t want owners money either. Of course they liked a Steve Cohen in every market but that’s not realistic.
Communist! (Lol)
But they aren’t. They spend what they make.
They conveniently forget expenses because that’s how large market apologists roll. Just as they think someone is going to force a larger TV deal.
Billionaires didn’t become that way by running their company in the red and not making some kind of profit. But these yahoos think they should spend their own money.
Business doesn’t work that way.
Are you simple? Seriously… you think business don’t spend their own money? They don’t work that way? Wow. Do you work for a union?
Reading is a skill.
There is a difference between the money the business brings in and the owner’s personal money and you know it. He is not hoing to throw good money after bad if the business is in the red.
The business spends its money. The owners money is separate. If you are a stockholder, you are a business owner (in part). I’m sure you wouldn’t like GM coming to your bank account because they want to add a new car to their line up.
they should stop being cheap
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They aren’t. They were 19th in payroll and 15th in attendance. That’s close enough.
Marlins had Yelich signed to a cheap contract through 2022 or something. Brewers gave him a very expensive definitely not cheap extension for his worst years.
I think they should trade Burnes and Adames. Also, non-tender Woodruff. I’m not just saying this because I want the Reds life to be easier lol. Their window is about to close. Always better for the small market team to get a prospect package than an extra draft pick. If go down that road, they should probably look into trading Devin Williams and maybe Freddy Peralta too.
The package for Freddy would have to be amazing. He’s a top notch starter on an extremely affordable contract.
Arguably the best contract in MLB
Keep him. Despite everything, the Crew are still contenders. Snake your way into the postseason and anything’s possible.
The NL central is so weak there is absolutely no reason for them to sell. Even with Woodruff out they will be right in the thick of things next year.
All the more reason to trade him then. Reload, still have a good chance at making postseason and be in better position in the future.
Unanswerable question
Depends primarily on what the return is, what he’d sign for and what other additions they can make
Unanswerable question
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Spot on correct.
Maybe I missed it , but who replaces him? If they had someone pushing him, sure, trade him, But I don’t see it.
I see both sides… personally I’d trade adames in a heart beat. I also cringe when I think Turang would be the most set player on the diamond.
Brewers front office will field a contending team as they have for the past many years. With a core still in place and #2 farm system the window is not closing anytime soon. Matt Arnold is every bit as good as Stearns and will find the next Counsell
^^^ this
If they can’t afford a premiere shortstop for 12 million a year maybe they ought to sell the team. He’s half the price Detroit is paying Baez, and the career stats are comparable. The fact Detroit traded him is painful as well.
The Brewers don’t have to move Adams to afford Burnes. Those are the messages owners like to get out in the market as an excuse to be cheap.
Its not just to afford Burnes. Its to add the additional pieces they need. Keeping both means less money to fill the holes. I don’t follow the Brewers closely, so I don’t know how much change there would be defensively in moving to Turang. I do know they would lose a great deal of power at the plate, which they need. There is very little in FA this year to add to their offense more affordably than what Adames already provides them. A sleeper starter could fall to their price range and simply put Turang at 2B. How much faith do you have in DeJong, or Ahmed bettering the team?
Brewers should sell. Cubs and Reds are improving, Cards are going to reload.
Either that or throw the chips in this year, but thats a longshot (especially without Woodruff) and guarantees a few years of being also-rans in the NLC without having restocked the farm.
Brewers do a great job with the resources they have but the current window is closing fast.
Brewers have a better farm than the reds and cubs. Woodruff made 11 starts and pitched 55 innings in 2023 and the Brewers won 92 games.
Er, no they don’t.
Er…yes they very much do. Check out all the latest farm rankings. Milwaukee is #2 or 3 (Baltimore is consensus #1 and Milwaukee and Pit flip-flop the 2 and 3 spots)
Only because the Reds have called up those players.
Not a Reds fan, but they had an awesome run where they were bringing someone new up every two weeks. 16 players made their debut this year with the Reds. I’d be shocked if anyone had more.
Good defense and one of the clubhouse leaders but his last two years have been declining offensively. 12+ million for good defense and slightly below average offense sounds steep but the only internal option they have is Turang, who hopefully can improve after a tough year at the plate but Brewers might keep him at second.
I think they almost have to since they can’t really deal Butnes with the Woodruff injury.
Unless they are going full rebuild, which they will have to do eventually.
It seems the author pays no attention to prospects. I’d trade Adames, mive Turang to short, and give Tyler Black a chance at 3rd or 2nd, giving Monasterio time at the other. As far as a replacement for Caratini, I know the perfect guy: Vincent Caratini. Is he really out of the Brewers’ price range? Unless he finds a starting job somewhere, I doubt it.
Vincent? His twin brother?
Nobody is gonna trade for Caratini as a starter – not even the Marlins.
Brewers have the #2 farm system w/ 6 top 100 prospects (including #2) all at double or triple a. Brewers gm already stated Tyler Black is in the mix to make opening roster.
They should trade him. The Brewers aren’t big spenders, so to contend, they need to draft and develop well and/or trade for prospects. It’s what Cleveland has done for years: use a player through the first five years of their rookie deal, then trade him. It’s a smart template to follow if you’re good at scouting and development.
No team has drafted better than Milwaukee since 2018. Hence the #2 system with only late picks, while buying every deadline (Hader trade being the outlier)
As a brewer fan I’d point out the mariners and Padres as the best drafting teams.
They should trade from their CF depth for someone like Jackson Merrill from the padres who have plenty of SS on the roster. I’m sure this is blasphemy for some but perhaps a Jackson swap Merrill for Chourio with additional pieces – and yes I know high end prospect swaps never happen, but it’s fun to imagine!
Perhaps a Jackson swap: Merrill for Chourio, plus additional pieces to balance value. I know prospect swaps never happen, but it would be fun and makes sense for both clubs.
Sorry for the double (now triple) post
I didn’t even have to read the article. This is a no-brainer . Trade him.
Yeah, with no disrespect to anyone in the financial argument above (or their supposed “fact-based thoughts”), it makes so much sense to trade a higher priced player and replace him with similar production at a lower cost, and use the savings elsewhere.
And the idea of not trading a “locker room leader” is hilarious. Someone else will step up. The Brewers need him for that role almost as much a the Bucks need Thanasis as a cheerleader.
But do they have or can they acquire a similar player at lower cost? Have you looked at the FA market? The little that is there offensively will be bid on extravagently.
Take a flier on a young player then.
I realize he was a pleasant surprise a few years ago, but the dude isn’t better than league average. You could bring anyone up from the farm and likely get about the same production. He’s got a decent arm, but the dude isn’t a difference maker, so don’t pay him like one, is essentially what this comes down to for this small market team.
kripes-brewers4 hours ago
You could bring anyone up from the farm and likely get about the same production.
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Who?
Adames was top 10 in SS WAR this season with the worst offensive season of his career.. He’s 9th in fWAR over the past seasons among SS (min 1000 PA), and 11th in wRC+ amongst SS.. You can’t bring anybody up from the farm and get about the same production out of. Brewers should be looking to extend Adames.
If he’s that great, they should have no trouble prying a young ss away from the team they send him to, or get 1 from a third team, either in a multi team deal or a separate trade.
AlBundysFanClubPresident7 hours ago
it makes so much sense to trade a higher priced player and replace him with similar production at a lower cost,
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That’s true for every player in baseball The trick is, who do they have that can replace his production?
Why on earth would a team that made the playoffs and has an excellent shot of making the playoffs trade one of their best players coming off a down year? Just retain him until the deadline if he plays better than last year, which he should keep him if the team is in contention flip him if they aren’t. Same goes for Burnes and Williams.
Click bait bro
In the case of Adames, he’s not really that good. And maybe they can use the money they save by moving him on a Burnes or Williams extension. Just a thought.
Good to trade expiring players if the return is advantageous. Difference of reload vs rebuild or extending window.
I don’t know what they would expect the return for Adames to be but it wouldn’t be much.
They wouldn’t have to fork over $12 million. That’s something already.
As much as I’d hate to see him go, the low BA and OBP hurts us. He hits homeruns but strikes out a ton. Trade Adames and Burnes and get a huge haul. Williams can go also if we can get a ton for him. Phillies need a closer bad. Woody out most likely all year…non-tender and start over. Yes it sucks but with a solid Farm and getting more, hopefully it would only feel the pain for a couple seasons.
Braves make sense.
The Woodruff injury honestly changes the plans for their offseason for sure. Before that, honestly I’d of traded Burnes before the season and gotten back the best value they could for him. He’s probably going to land somewhere in the range of a 10 year deal to where whichever team acquires him will probably offer the best package if they can at least make him the obviously rejected qualifying offer. Waiting to mid season diminishes the offer a bit and they would’ve at least had Woodruff to front the rotation. But his injury changed that.
As much as I like Willy Adames, they should offer him the best extension they feel comfortable offering, and if he declines, yes, they should trade him.
At the same time, they should also at minimum offer Woodruff a 2 year contract, but keep him regardless. But since Woodruff is off the table for being a candidate anyways, I’d still give him the arbitration. They need Burnes now to start the season and go in competitive, and as bad as their offense is, replacing Adames would still be easier. Black will possibly be ready and although it’s mean relying on Black and Turang for offense from up the middle infielders, if they want to save money at this point, dealing Adames for the best possible return is probably the best scenario.
Headed into the season with Burnes to top the rotation, they can then still field a good rotation with the possibility of Woodruff coming back late in the year to help the pitching, and if they fall out of it, still get something at the deadline for Burnes as well. While still having Woodruff possibly come back late to make it so that their rotation still isn’t terrible to end the year. Then if Woodruff didn’t take the two year pillow extension, make him a qualifying offer, which he’ll either accept and give them one more year for him to lead the rotation, or they’ll gain a draft pick for that.
Unless they have someone to replace hum, Mil should be good enough to contend next year, even without Woodruff, who only made 11 starts last, albeit outstanding starts.
Problem is the NLC will be tougher company all round. Cubs and Reds improving, Cards reloading – not going to be easy in 2024
They won their division by 9 games. If they don’t make a move, they are still the best team in the division.
Crazy things happen in baseball all the time. The two current World Series teams were both 4th place in their respective divisions a year ago, with W-L records well below .500 but they suddenly broke out this year. The Brewers without Woodruff anchoring their rotation, and running it back with a below average offense, while their rivals are marching towards getting better can easily fall from that 9 game lead. This is a pivotal time for the Brewers, it wouldn’t surprise me if they sold as high as they possibly can on some of their veterans and gun for 2025.
Keep him, Milwaukee still has Adames and Burnes for one more year of arbitration. If the wheels really start to fall off, then you trade them at the deadline. I don’t see this team falling off a cliff next season, they’re still going to be competitive. This is coming from a Cubs fan, I wouldn’t count them out.
Trading at deadline usually gets lesser return and you pay majority of salary. And if player isn’t healthy you pay all salary and get no prospects.
Attanasio made Arnold trade Hader to save a little money. Pretty sure at least one of Adames or Burnes is going.
I thought it was because the prospect return was too good to pass up.
You are joking right? They got a washed up closer from the Padres and not much else.
Are you joking? They got 5 years of a 800 something ops catcher! For an expensive soon to be free agent closer. For 20 million they could have gotten multiple good relievers or whatever they needed.
Not from the Padres.
Brewers got all star catcher for most of the decade. Probably trade him for good prospects in 3 years. Padres paid 20 some million and a prospect good enough to get 5 years of a all star catcher for a reliever! Lol. And he is gone!
Not sure why you keep saying that. It’s not true.
The Brewers got Rogers, Lamet, Gasser, and Ruiz for Hader.
mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/brewers-trade-josh-hade…
They did not get a catcher from the Padres at all. Any other trades they made later were not part of the original trade with the Padres.
The Padres got a dominant closer who had a 0.87 ERA down the stretch 0.00 ERA in the playoffs in 2022 and 1.28 ERA this season. They will also get a draft pick for him after he gets a QO. . For that they paid $17 million.
The Brewers got 2 months of Rogers, nothing from Lamet, 3 games from Ruiz, and Gasser who flamed out in the minors.
That the A’s are idiots and made a bad trade with the Brewers 4 months later is not on the Padres. It’s on Fisher and Forst.. The Padres by far got the better end of the trade with the Brewers.
Attanasio made Arnold trade Hader to save a little money.
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They made the move because Williams was the better closer by that point.
At that point, yes Williams was a better closer. Hader fell apart when his wife’s life was in danger during the late stages of their first pregnancy and when their child spent nearly a month in the NICU after he was born June 15th. Hader had started the 2022 season with 2 months of giving up only 4 hits and no runs in 19 appearances. He ended the season with 15 straight scoreless appearances while giving up 5 hits including 5 scoreless appearances in the playoffs.
It’s not why the Brewers made the trade, It was to try to save money because Hader was set to make up to $17 million in arbitration in 2023 while Williams was going to be relatively cheap in his first time through arbitration.. Both Arnold and this site said that was the reason for the trade.
Adames should be the Brewers #1 extension candidate imo. Plus defense Shortstops with anything close to an average bat are rare, and unsurprisingly the Brewers have no other options in the pipeline.
Now if Adames wants Dansby Swanson money, then trade him, and work like hell to find that next plus d SS that can hit.
The problem is, his bat seems to be less valuable each year. Aside from a couple brief hot streaks, when he crushes meatball pitches he’s a Mendoza line batter. Throw all the advanced metrics out you can find to prop him up. Then see if Chris Carter and Eric Thames are available.
Based on how much power is valued these days Chris Carter would be a very wealthy man.
The Brewers Traded 3 years of Khris Davis, 133 Hrs for Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby, one of David Stearns first moves. This is also the team that non tendered Carter after 40 Hrs.
Santander & Joey Ortiz/Jordan Westburg for Burnes or Woodruff would be nice.
Get Elias on the phone!
Here’s something to ponder..is it more sensible for the Brewers to hold onto Adames, or move him and pick up the option on Canha, and possibly re-up Santana for 1 or 2 years to play 1B? All these other scenarios are legitimate (regarding Burnes and whoever else), but I think it could very well come down to Adames or Canha/Santana.
Either roll with someone already in the system to replace Adames, or get a near-ready prospect back (or in another trade) and move on. It’s not like it’d be the first time they plugged a glaring round hole with a square peg.
Really, I think whatever they do with Burnes won’t be contingent on anything or anyone else. We know who his agent is and we know what happened with the arb hearing last year. It seems unlikely they manage to convince him to stay.
Either roll with someone already in the system
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C’mon, that is no way to make an argument. “Someone”? If you want to replace him, you need the name of a player with whom to replace him.
This implies you can plug anyone in there to replace Adames. You don’t need to name someone. If u want a glove first shortstop, you move Turang over there and roll with Monasterio or Owen Miller at 2B. Adames isn’t a difference maker on this team. Too many strikeouts and HIDPs. If you watched this team this year, you’d see why many feel his production will not be tough to replace.
Who’s arguing? I tossed out an idea.
How about anyone? Is that better? That’s what I think of Adames right now, carrying a $12+ million price tag and basically hitting decent for about 1/4 of the season.