The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…
- Our MLB Contract Tracker, which you can find more about in this video (1:30)
- The 18th birthday of MLBTR, the evolution of the Top 50 list over the years and the preparation of this year’s list (3:00)
- Shohei Ohtani and his unique free agent case (10:35)
- Cody Bellinger and the trend of longer deals for top free agents (16:00)
- The approach to team predictions in the Top 50 (27:00)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his unique case (33:05)
- Blake Snell (38:15)
- Team fits for the top pitchers, such as the Red Sox and Giants (42:35)
- Comparing Aaron Nola to Jordan Montgomery (48:55)
- Which predictions do we have the least confidence in? Lucas Giolito, Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Matt Chapman (52:10)
- Sonny Gray (1:04:00)
- Robert Stephenson (1:09:45)
- Jack Flaherty (1:12:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
- Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin – listen here
- Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
Who do you think comes off the board first? Who do you think signs first? Will it be one of the biggies or a smaller FA?
I don’t know why, but I think amongst the top free agents, Sonny Gray signs first for 4 years/$90M give or take a million or two, apart from a few guys who are looking for 1-2 year pillow contracts.
I agree with a pitcher being 1st to sign, but i think it will be Yamamoto as he only has a 45 day window in order to sign and I think 3 or 4 days have passed since he was posted.
My 1st pod cast ever and i thoroughly enjoyed all 1 hour and 18 minutes of it, going to be following this pod cast on a regular basis from now on!!! Good Job Guys!!!!
My logic for thinking Bellinger will get less than 200 is that he has only had a 43 game stretch of being above average with the bat over the past 3 yrs. This is as a mid 20s guy. His body type feels like he’s got 3 years maybe of + CF play – he’s lost half a step already – missed a month+ this year. The metrics for the bat show he was a bit lucky in his hot stretch this year. Just feels like a guy that might only give a team 2-3 yrs TOTAL for the rest of his career as a plus bat CF – then what? A mediocre COF/1B? This all said could the Yankees just pay him 250mil when they don’t get Ohtani? Sure. I will say paying Belli more than 150-170 will be a terrible contract..
He was average or below for all but 43 days last year? Which days were those?
Everything you just described sounds exactly like the Yankees playbook. (i.e. Stanton, Rodriguez, Ellsbury) Honorable mention: Rodon. Future Award winner: Judge and more than likely Soto.
Thank you for all the hard work.
I don’t see the atmosphere we saw last couple years with the Mets and Padres madness and Giants, Rangers and NYY pushing up the prices.
Smart GM`s know that committing 10+ years and pushing it to 13 to spread the lux tax, its not sustainable ( how many a single team have ). I just don’t see the trend that way, last couple of years were desperation moves. In baseball all money is guaranteed.
Smart GM`s know that committing 10+ years and pushing it to 13 to spread the lux tax, its not sustainable
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Smart GMs also know they won’t be here in 10-13 years to pick up the tab. If I were handed a GM position, I’d spend as much as I could, lengthen the duration to reduce the annual cost, and trade away half the farm. If I win, I will be beloved. If I lose, I’ll leave and the fans will probably blame the next GM anyway.
Little club mentality.
Joe – The length of the contract ONLY matters if you pick the wrong guy!!!
Devers was the wrong guy to get a long contract.
Mookie was the right guy and has paid huge dividends to the Dodgers that could have paid to the Red Sox.
I believe Ohtani will be another RIGHT GUY since he stays in great shape and is a freak of nature. Even if he only pitches 6 to 8 of the 12 year deal, his return is going to average close to $50MM a year.
Bogey’s contract was stretched out to lower the AAV with the expectation it was really an 8 year contract not 11. Bogey will be fun to watch because he stays in good shape and has great hand/eye coordination so his average shouldn’t erode much over time. His power will but that’s no his strength. His running will but that’s not his strength. His defense will continue to improve without Devers impacting every ball hit to his right thus significantly reducing his alleged range.
His 30 yr old season saw him play his second highest total of games played. His 120 OPS+ was down after moving from Fenway to SD but most guys drop in their first year after a trade that comes after nearly a decade with a team.
I guess the main point is generalization should be avoided when it comes to contracts. One size does NOT fit all. The key to ANY contract is expected production vs expected cost. Devers is a bad contract since expected high performance years are nowhere near 10. Mookie’s contract is a good one because expected high performance could exceed his contract.
Smart GM’s never generalize. They deal with each contract individually.
Personally, I’d go for Aaron Nola because he’s a workhorse coming off a bad season so his value is deflated. He may be the best “deal” out there at SP.
Yamamoto is very interesting but he’s high risk so like Nola I think 6 years is the maximum. I like Montgomery but I don’t think Texas lets him leave. Snell would be buying high and that’s never a good idea. I liked Urias right up to the point he had his issues and now I wouldn’t touch him.
To me, Yamamoto and Nola make the most sense and they need to be done quickly with big offers that keep them from thinking about other options. BUT as always, if you want guys like them you must move Devers to DH.
Great pod!!
I believe I am alone in my opinion of where an Ohtani contract should land. I can’t imagine paying him more that 15m in 2024 for a DH only role. 2025 should be a “show me you can still pitch” year at about 30m matching what he made in 2023. If he gets back to form, then pay the 40m+ as a pitcher/hitter starting in 2026 with opt outs for both team and player and inning incentives to meet. If it becomes clear that he can’t pitch to his usual level, then it depends on his value in the field. If he can’t pitch, then throwing from the outfield would be a problem too. So I would have him learn 1b starting day one with his new team just in case that ends up as the situation. Then pay a top hitting 1b 35m aav, again with opt outs. He’s a huge unknown right now.
prov356 – You have a very sound argument. Only one of your first statements bothered me.
“I can’t imagine paying him more than $15MM in 2024 for a DH only role.”
As a Red Sox fan who has to endure seeing Devers being paid double the $15MM you suggested and having him play the field and hurt the pitching staff it would seem to me you are suggesting Devers is worth less than $15MM as a DH masquerading as a 3B. Ohtani is a better hitter than Devers. He’s a better base runner who will steal more bases and hit for more power.
Maybe Ohtani as a DH is worth the max a strictly DH should make – $25MM.
Personally, Ohtani’s MVP hitting numbers suggest to me he would be a break even DH at $30MM, the amount Devers is being paid for the next 10 years, all of which will be worse years than what Ohtani will produce on the hitting side so not counting his pitching!!.
You have really pointed out just how incredibly over paid Devers is with your comments about Ohtani. THANK YOU!!
Trollfree – That makes sense. My 15m number is derived from the fact that in 2024, Ohtani is absolutely a DH only player. At least Devers can fill a defensive role if needed. Ohtani can’t. I’m not familiar with Devers but based on what you say, he’s probably overpaid even with his position player option. I just can’t imagine paying a player who can absolutely only hit more that 15m.
prov356 – Devers broke in in 2017 and nearly led 3Bs in errors despite only play 2 months. Since then he has led baseball in errors at 3B. His feat of leading all 3Bs in errors for 6 years puts him at the top of the heap. No 3B has had more seasons leading the league in errors. To put it into perspective, Arenado has fewer has 123 in 4382 chances while Devers has 129 in 2235 chances.!!!!
Yep, 6 more errors in 2147 LESS CHANCES.
I would argue Devers should pay Boston to play in the field so his value is far less by playing in the field not more like one would logically think. A local HS kid could probably do a comparable job yet he’s played there for 7 seasons since he first came up.
Any organization that poorly run doesn’t deserve to win. That’s why I loved your comment. Red Sox fans keep rationalizing why he should stay at 3B and make $30MM a year. His 126 OPS+ in 2023 is significantly lower than Ohtani’s 184!! If Ohtani gets $15MM for not playing then Devers should get $10MM for playing!! But instead, he’s going to get $30MM whether he plays or not. For the Red Sox’s sake, he needs to play DH and exist as guy paid WAY OVER his worth to the club for the next 10 years.
trollfree – Wow Devers stinks.
Fans get caught up in the hype spewed by the media on all of these players without looking objectively at the facts. Take Jo Adell for example. He was the most hyped prospect that I can remember. So the Angels brought him up prematurely and he stunk on defense and at the pate. They bounced him back and forth for the last few of years and now he’s settled into mediocrity. I can go on about the Angels: Pujols, Hamilton, Renson, et al.
But teams will pay ridiculous salaries for past performance instead of projecting into the future. Alright, I stepped off my soap box.